Open 254 ~ Trust Issues (FvEvE) Game Ends

[kunkstar7]

Ok just preliminary thoughts on entering the game:

Pages 1/2 seem to be just RVS/RQS. The RQS failed quite a bit in my opinion, but I'm going to leave this theory debate out right now.
Page 3 seems still a lingering continuation of random stuff...

Now I'll share my hunch. Lowell and Antihero are scum buddies. Antihero was under pressure so Lowell is trying to divert attention while Antihero gets things under control again. Lowell is not voting for me though, because he doesn't want to lead the town in lynching me.

Oh, and you never explained your vote on singer.

I'm not sure how you can see those coordinating tactics from them with nothing really concrete. Saying Lowell's posts are diversions is like saying my replacing is a cover for {{insert player}}. Its grasping at straws, kind of ridiculous for even this early. Do you have any other case that supports one or the other being scum, because if you take your hunch and separate out the players, your hunch falls apart because you have no evidence like a flip or other scumtells to support either player being individually scummy.

Oh, and Antihero and Lowell are taking my original hunch post the same way. Coincidence, or are they both trying to discredit my ideas?

This is confirmation bias, which I find especially poor considering the original hunch.

3. What is your favorite role? Pumpkin shooting laser from its ass
4. Chaos or order? Stupid questions get stupid responses.

Win and Win.

[kunkstar7]

Did you read anything else? Did you read my post where I said it was half serious and half OMGUS? I'm the only one you have anything to comment on about?

I read the whole 6 pages so far. Wasn't too hard.

You said it was half serious and half OMGUS. The OMGUS part is bad, and the serious part spurs the rest of my comments on you. The funny thing is that the post following your admission of the half OMGUS/half serious you post what I considered confirmation bias, which showed to me that you are holding some weight to your hunch, and therefore it must be scrutinized.

Yes, you are the only one I have to comment on right now, your posts stood out to me the most out of the start of this game.

[kunkstar7]

Well if it seemeed like you paid attention to my later posts on the issue then I wouldn't have had to ask.

So are my reasons are worse than Lowell's? You're only going to comment on my side of things, and not his then?

Regarding Lowell's side:

#1: Confirm.
#2: Votes zed, seemed random to myself. Didn't think about this too much due to the fact that it was on Page 2, so chalked it up to random vote. Actually was an effective one from my PoV considering it seems to have spurred some reaction/discussion.
#3: Hunches from Lowell. Not reading much from this post, he semi-explains his singer vote in his next post.
#4: Some more hunches, with reasoning behind them as well. Townish post from Lowell.
#5: Apology. Nothing here.
#6 States why he is displeased with zed's play, develops his vote reasoning further. To be honest this logic seems solid, it matches my personal read of zed.

The difference in between your reasoning and Lowell's is yours requires a person to believe both Lowell and Antihero are scum, and it falls flat when you reduce that to one or the other. Lowell has identified that this is grasping at straws in his vote against you and it justifies his side.

From Lowell's side I'm seeing townish play from him.

Your comments are just making me think and question you now, especially since I didn't have even the slighest tingle about NS's status.

For what reason are they making you question me? This statement looks like a bit more OMGUS from your part, and I think you are falling into the the ideal that someone attacking you automatically makes them scummy, evident by your reaction to Lowell and myself.

[kunkstar7]

Massive amounts of CYA noted.

Psst....whats CYA stand for...? >_>

[kunkstar7]

Hm. You need to scumhunt more. Appease less.

QFT.

I've currently got my post on the player i find most scummy, I have yet to see a response from him.

Considering this is your Lowell vote:

vote: lowell I dont like how he, first, blindly ignored the part of Zed's post calling attention to possible scuminess, and then easily tried to discredit what she said with "oh there's no substance here..."

What do you expect Lowell to respond with? What of Lowell's posts of Zed's scumminess? In what form did Lowell discredit zed with "oh there's no substance here..."? Have you developed your read on Lowell any further beyond this initial psot which as you yourself stated was your first real time checking in?

[kunkstar7]

Unvote; Vote: zed,

seems like the strongest read to go with here.

@Sevei, your a2rudeboy case is interesting, but I don't see it going anywhere today. Out of zed or quadz (which I don't understand the case on yet), which seems scummier?

[kunkstar7]

Well I sort of expected the lynch to have gone through so far but seems not.

For Deadline Extension.

That should be the pass.

I still maintain my position of the zed lynch. While chesskid can't amend anything that zed did previously scummy, something that sticks out to me is chesskid's immediate dismissal of the wagon on him as a " OMGUS+chainsaw wagon". If anything zed's response to Lowell is the OMGUS, as Lowell declared zed to be scum before zed went after Lowell. So that is an inaccurate description of the wagon on him. And even the creator of the chainsaw idea admits it doesn't work until a scum flips. chesskid continues to paint zed as the initial attacker whereas he was merely in response to Lowell's read that zed was scum, making it a misrep on his part.

[kunkstar7]

*breaks the game*

...Wait Uite got killed by the werewolves. Hahahahahhaha That is some funny shit.

How do you know this? Judging by the mod's response it was a flavor-tell?

[kunkstar7]

Werewolfscum had two options at the end of the day, to either buss quadz or try and get an alternate lynch. Starting with the alternate lynch theory, it would be one of the four players on the chesskid3 wagon, considering that was the only other viable alternative to quadz. The four players are: quadz08(scum), Lowell, kunkstar7 (myself), and Antihero. Looking at the fact that quadz was already on the chesskid wagon, it makes it less likely that both werewolves were on that wagon. But if they were I would bet on Antihero, mostly from PoE since I have a townish gutread on Lowell.

FoS: antihero.

Most likely coincidence but antihero's last post was a mention of Nexus, who hadn't been mentioned before, although I find it unlikely scum would try and kill off lurkers (but I've seen it done).

On the other hand the bussing options are : quadz08 -7- singersigner, Uite, chesskid3, Nexus, Pomegranate, Lowell, quadz08.

Which now is confusing as heck because Lowell and quadz are on both wagons....so that leaves antihero as the sole man on the alternate wagon.
Uite and nexus are out of the picture, they both flipped town. That leaves singer, Lowell, Pom, chesskid. I don't think that both leading wagons were run up on scum (possible but not likely.) So chess is out for now. With the same reason as above I'll leave out Lowell for now and singer, Pom are left.

Scum suspects for Werewolf connections:
singer
antihero
Pom.

Vote: antihero,

I feel stronger about this one.

[kunkstar7]

This doesn't seem to be going anywhere. So far the muffin case just looks like a lynch on lurking, antihero's vote on muffin says as much, plus it isn't even well founded because it implies that spring's replacing out is scummy. Antihero hasn't done anything today to convince me otherwise.

[kunkstar7]

I'm also still waiting for an answer to this:

Werewolfscum had two options at the end of the day, to either buss quadz or try and get an alternate lynch. Starting with the alternate lynch theory, it would be one of the four players on the chesskid3 wagon, considering that was the only other viable alternative to quadz. The four players are: quadz08(scum), Lowell, kunkstar7 (myself), and Antihero.

It might be all the tryptophan but can you explain please why you don't think chesskid3 is a valid target for werewolf scum to lynch?

I find it unlikely that both of the leading wagons yesterday were on werewolves. It is possible, but unlikely, due to the ease of quadz's jumping on the chesskid3 wagon. It makes no sense for one scum to take down his partner along with him if it means the demise of his group.

[kunkstar7]

Quick Note: Massclaim is pointless right now as everyone will claim vanilla with the exception of the last mason. We could still massclaim if others would like, to see if one of the scum is idiotic enough to pull off a crazy claim/counterclaim. But overall a mason claim at this point is effectively neutralized as confirming anyone due to the case of a scum gambitting fake-mason and not being properly counterclaimed. So, I see no point to massclaiming, but will do so if the others want.

[kunkstar7]

last mason is a confirmed clear, though.

Not entirely, but meh, just beating out technicalities.

Vote: chesskid.

With both of the Werewolves dead we are back again without connections. But chesskid's reaction to the mason death looks to me like a form of the jeeptell.

Antihero scum means Muffin scum.

Do you still hold this? Explain how Antihero connects with Muffin?

[kunkstar7]

and How is the last mason not clear? If someone were to cc being the last mason, that would be super awesome.

If the last mason was not thinking enough to not counterclaim a fakeclaiming scum. But like I said, technicalities.

[kunkstar7]

Do you still hold this? Explain how Antihero connects with Muffin?

@chesskid, I would still like an answer to this.

Mostly waiting for chesskid's analysis, because his case on muffin currently doesn't hold any weight in my eyes. I mostly see him just dismissing muffin's talk as "tunneling." Chesskid's rolefishing is more noticeable now with his reactions today.

[kunkstar7]

@Mod: I believe a2rudeboy is voting chesskid3.

I find it hard to believe you are busy chesskid when you have the time to make the posts.

[kunkstar7]

Don't have an issue with a hammer now. Pair analysis is pointless now, especially considering we don't even have a scumflip to go off of yet, and it will probably be just more Muffin hate.

[kunkstar7]

HERP DERP LOOK AT THAT. CK WAS TOWN.

Not Town:
Kunkstar and Lowell.

Discuss.

A logical gap exists between your vote for muffin yesterday and your choice of scum for today.

I didn't see you petitioning strongly against CK's lynch yesterday either, just a quick one post "oh i dont think ck is scum". This actually tells of scum weakly trying to oppose a lynch they know will flip town in order to gain town cred later.

Top reads right now would be Sevei and Pom, I don't really believe chesskid's case had any weight, but I'll have to review it in light of his flip.

[kunkstar7]

@Sevei, its not OMGUS its product of elimination. Players left:

Lowell
muffin
Pom
Sevei
myself

I don't think I am scum (obv.)
I don't think Lowell is scum. I've played with him a few times and he seems similar to those instances. His early play when I joined in seemed townish (haven't seen much of him lately, but it fits his playstyle rather than striking me as something surprisingly scummy. Not scum in my view.
I don't think muffin is likely scum due to the fact that I did not see any logical case from chesskid that explained his insistence for a lynch on muffin. So I do not have a case on muffin.

Therefore that leaves two players left, Pom and yourself. Two scum left, two players left.

I did not consider you scum because you chose me as scum, you may have very well chosen me for the same reason I chose you as top scum, yet you have not said your reasoning that states this, and you have yet to explain the discrepancy between your muffin vote yesterday and your top suspects today. If muffin was worth the vote today, then what makes him not worth it today? In fact, the way you stated your top suspects (with the exclusion of any reasoning and the discuss statement that follows) reads to me as someone hoping a tossed out idea will be caught up and made into a case for you.

Regarding the chainsaw defense, even the creator of that tell admits it holds no weight until a scum flips. Lowell's stance made sense and fit with my own read of zed then (which is a little bit of confirmation bias I admit), therefore it makes sense to support it.

[kunkstar7]

So far my only reasoning to call you scum has been that elimination based on reads, therefore it isn't even substantiated enough to vote on. Your reaction to my response is seeming overblown.

Unfortunately you are missing the clear distinction that validates my read rather making it OMGUS. OMGUS implies that the vote or read is based solely on an emotional response to an accusation leveled against the player. This is clearly not the case as I have stated perfectly logical and clear reasoning as to why you made it onto my list of scum and have included no emotional bias or action against yourself.

The point I am looking for regarding muffin is the distinct lack of muffin in either of your top reads, not solely myself. If muffin was high enough on your reads to vote yesterday, why do all of a sudden to entirely separate players surpass this?

[kunkstar7]

Regarding the OMGUS, you can't redefine a term more loosely to make it fit your specifications.

You may view it as defending Lowell, simply put in my mind Lowell's points towards zed said what I felt and zed had some suspicious stances and comments towards players, it just happened they were mostly in regards to antihero and Lowell.

@muffin: What are the results of your iso reads? Who are your top suspects for today?

[kunkstar7]

Well, I'm going to

Vote: Sevei.

My strongest read for today,a combination of PoE, Pom's #500 and nothing striking me as town from Sevei. Deadline hits tonight, so this will probably be the last post I make for today as I work for the rest of the night.

[kunkstar7]

Oh, hi just want to show you my logic/voting analysis that led to find all the masons:

So,yea, a2rudeboy/singer are the masons. I think kill singer.

Pom/a2rudeboy are not masons together, Plum wants a2r lynched.
Pom is also not masons with Muffin.
Pom is also not masons with Sevei.
Pom is also not masons with singer.
Pom is also not masons with Lowell (obviously.)
Pom is also not masons with Kunkstar7 (obviously.)

Chesskid is not a mason as per this quote from Nexus:
"I'm trying to decide between Zed and quadz.".

Pom therefore cannot be a mason, as her only viable partner is not a mason.
Sevei is not a mason. He voted Nexus(a mason).

People Not Masons:
chesskid3
Sevei
Lowell
Kunkstar7
Pom

People Left:
singersigner*
a2rudeboy
Muffin

So 2/3 chance of hitting a mason. Not bad if I say so myself.

It was simply looking at who voted whom and who had suspicions of who, even without the a2rudeboy softclaiming it was figured out.