Open 288 - Mayo Clinic (Game Over!)

[GreyICE]

Vote; Andrew

- Only I have a target for last night - Wizrak. I'm betting Wiz is also scum with andrew.

I protected Wizrak-slot last night.

Why? Because the moderator asked for one replacement in a game with two players suddenly kicked out.

OH.

WHOSE ABOUT TO DIE?

Yes, this could be called gaming the system. I told the moderator and he's fine with it.

Now, EMP or Andrew, thread read time.

[GreyICE]

By the way, very unlikely that one is the Serial Killer. SK has nothing to gain by counterclaiming, since him getting lynched = loss. On the other hand, scum get potentially two mislynches out of the counterclaim, for the cost of one scum. Win? Yes.

I will not believe a serial killer claim from anyone who claimed vig.

[GreyICE]

1. MrBump
2. Rain
3. Chocolate Cake
4. andrew94
6. Empking
10. wizrak
11. GreyICE
12. evilpacman18

Situation:
4 Town
3 Scum
1 Serial Killer

This is the player list. One of Andrew/EmpKing is confirmed scum. Serial Killer, if we lynch wrong, shoot the other one. He's definite goon. You can't afford to have the mafia become the majority either, you know this to be true.

If we lynch right, you still want to shoot that Bump uselessness. 1 goon left means the situation tomorrow is:
3:1:1

If you hit town, and scum shot goes through, it's 2:2:1. This is Kingmaker, and you're very, very likely to lose Kingmaker. You have a fair chance of winning LyLo because of the utter chaos of our night actions.

Any convenient summaries of the claimed night 1 actions? I want to check them over.

[GreyICE]

Well, it's more or less MyLo today. Mass claim time.

Anyone dispute this?

[GreyICE]

Popcorn, Chocolate. Choose the next person who claims (who is unclaimed).

[GreyICE]

Popcorn, Chocolate. Choose the next person who claims (who is unclaimed).

You claim wizrak protection. What about aah?

Same thing night 1 according to Olinea

[GreyICE]

And, hmm. Popcorn: Evil Pacman

[GreyICE]

I claimed doc pretty early in the thread. Nothing's changed.

Popcorn: Rain

Targets?

[GreyICE]

Yes, this could be called gaming the system. I told the moderator and he's fine with it.

Seriously! Seriously! You come into this game and rather thn try to help the town you go. "i no who r dying. i will protect da unreadable slot because i r well wicked n cool n smart."

Who do you think tried to kill the unreadable waste o a slot? The vig or the scum?

To be honest? With doctors I didn't expect any scum shots to go into obvtown, but outside of Rain I don't see anyone who screams "town" to me. Simple fact of the matter - scum are shooting at town slots that are probably not protected, Wizrak-slot, with Aaah gone, was an easy target, and I like Kingmaker not at all.

[GreyICE]

10 second time out:

Mechanics of a popcorn claim

You claim your role and any targets for any night actions in one post.

Then you choose the next person to target. Typically this is the scummiest person, because scum are more often caught in impossible/unlikely night actions (claiming to vig someone who was unprotected in this setup, etc.).

It's fair to say Pacman will, from his earlier posts, popcorn bump, but I am not running the popcorn claim and pacman should say. The only time that claim order is acceptable is if the claim order comes from confirmed town.

[GreyICE]

*single poster arranging claim order is acceptable

That's what that should say.

[GreyICE]

NO ONE LYNCH JESUS.

One mislynch means scum win. The end. Town need to wait and sort this out.

Doctors

GreyICE: Wizrak N1, Wizrak-slot N2
Mr. Bump: Pac N1 and Rain N2.
EvilPacman: Rain N1, Rain N2


Andrew (Vig): Kage N1, Pacman N2
EmpKing (Vig): Wizrak N2. No claim for N1 as far as I know.

Dead: 1 vig, 3 doctors.

Bump has popcorned to NO ONE. Needs to fix ASAP.

[GreyICE]

Everyone's claimed but Wizrak, silly.

Blah. Then mind filling in the blanks in my list?

[GreyICE]

Uh, there's a whole other person who hasn't claimed yet.

We're not lynching on the basis of charts until we know what Wizrak did. Aaah and Wizrak were good friends, and frankly I read Wizrak as totally useless town, not scum, and so did Aaah. Although I fully admit had Wizrak remained in that slot I would have been like "eh... lets do the kingmaker thing."

PEDIT: The mod randomized it and won't even tell you who you shot randomly?

Olinea: can you confirm that in the event of a randomized kill the killer would not be told who they shot?

I can't answer that.

~Olinea

[GreyICE]

Eh, either the moderator will say "yes," say "no," or say "oops," and suddenly EmpKing will have some more information.

[GreyICE]

To be clear, the scumteam could have easily asked the moderator this before, so I hardly consider a positive answer clears him.

[GreyICE]

I think Pacman has finally fucked up for the last time in thread. We need an Andrew flip to confirm this, but Pacman is scum.

Why EmpKing is town and Andrew is scum.

Vatesi.

Just that? Well, EmpKing reads town, but Vatesi. Dear lord, Vatesi. Why do you want to lynch him again? Look at his ISO people! He spends the entire game talking about what the Vigilantes should do. He's so obviously a vigilante she might as well have sent up fireworks and hired a brass band.

The problem is, ANY scum who is accused can claim vigilante since we have no way of validating vigilantes in the near future. SK's and mafia goons have exactly the same powers that vigilantes have. We cannot not lynch someone based solely on their vigilante claim.

However, after reading http://mafiascum.net/forum/search.php?a ... 3&sr=posts I believe he is genuinely a vigilante. I would expect a newbie to give up more easily if he were a mafia caught in such a situation, but he has tried to defend himself to the very end.

But... now I'm not sure whose the next scummiest candidate ~(o_o)~

unvote: kagetora

for now

Still not entirely sure. Why? Knows 50% of the vigs in the game.

I'm still around, just unsure of what to do.

The plan for two vigs to claim and two doctors to protect them could work. The flaw in the plan was that mafia and SK would stack kills - something that is unlikely to happen if you think about it. Having vigs in the game benefits the SK, because of the high chance of mis shooting and the SK is bulletproof anyway. Doctors however, exist to directly nullify the SK's goal. So the SK would benefit most from targeting a doctor. Because of this, the mafia would be apprehensive to target the vigilantes to try stack a double kill. Which makes it even less likely for the SK to target a vig, etc.
Then at night, we allow the vigs to determine who to shoot, to mess with the mafia doctor.
Pretty risky, but I think it's the most reliable way for us to keep the vigs alive for as long as possible, though we may lose more doctors than if we played blindly.
Thoughts?

He's straight up asking people what to do in thread. So I'm asked to believe that this was a scum gambit he was setting up perfectly... then suddenly flaked, and EmpKing walked in here and picked up the gambit just where it left off?

Or Andrew the owner of the unbearably hostile ISO and complete garbage posts is a goon? Hell, I've seen Andrew before, he doesn't play like this. So obviously goon.

Pacman wanted no mass claim. He wanted a speed lynch. He's now willing to vote hop to bump. Votes are flying around rather suddenly in LyLo.

Only real problem I have is that Andrew might be dumb enough to claim Vig as the serial killer. I doubt it, but it is on the outside edges of possibility.

Pacman is pretty clearly scum though.

[GreyICE]

Really pacman?

Ok, sense nobody came out saying that they protected kage, it is reasonable that kage is the Sk / mafia protected by doctor

i am a vig and i shot kage last night.

Either the mafia doctor decided to protect a TOWN vig to cause a mislynch, or...

uh...

Yeaaaaaaaahhhhhhhh

Claimed scum in thread and you wanna lynch EmpKing?

Not buying it.

[GreyICE]

What else do we know?

Well, unless Wizrak chose to use a doctor action to protect Bump (I'll let you all work out how likely that is based on in-thread interactions), Bump is confirmed scum.

So scumteam so far:

Bump
Andrew
?Pacman?

Pacman not mod confirmed to have taken impossible actions, so we'll leave him as number 3. Neither is doctor.

[GreyICE]

Oh this gets even sillier. Now, if EmpKing is town vig, he shot the Wizrak slot. And I protected the Wizrak slot. Meaning I'm confirmed doctor. And if Bump and Andrew are scum, I protected a non-scum slot. In this situation. Provably. Making me more or less confirmed town! Confirmed as soon as we flip the mafia doctor of course. Wizrak should be confirmed by his thread interactions with the bump scum. So here we are.

Town

EmpKing
GreyICE

Scum

Bump
Andrew

Non-Mafia (could be Serial Killer)

Wizrak

Middle Ground

Rain
Chocolate Cake
evilpacman18

Chocolate would be my #1`choice for serial killer. The SK needs a scum lynch today as badly as town, and the interactions with (Mafia scum) bump over the Serial Killer nonsense just screams oversensitivity. And look at the gameplay stepup today. From mediocre blah to making cases and catching scum. 'course he gets endgamed by the mafia easily as the rest of us, and with their doctor alive just knowing who they are doesn't make shooting them much easier.

And that leaves EvilPacman and Rain for the #3 scum. I'll do ISOs of them both, but I'm leaning pacman.

PEDIT: Ninja Chocolate in pointing out whose the most likely serial killer. Weee!

I love solving these.

[GreyICE]

Now here's where we go from here. Tonight, I'll protect Wizrak-slot. Wizrak-slot can protect Emp. And whoever is the doctor among the middle ground protects me.

That makes firing into non-scum ridiculously difficult. Emp can choose to fire into confirmed scum, if we get the doctor, or middle ground if we don't. SK and scum are going to have to aim at the middle ground if they want kills. Since bump is confirmed non-mafia doctor, and we'll be lynching Andrew, the middle ground has no doctor protections. It's fucking hunting season on those three.

Everyone whose not scum in agreement?

[GreyICE]

Uh...

Wells. Um, Magnetic - are you down with the plan of protecting EmpKing tonight? I will protect you, and the final doctor will protect me since we don't have a clue who he is?

Vote: Andrew94

Has a higher chance of being the mafia doctor than bump, which is to say 1% is higher than 0%.

[GreyICE]

Nope, thought I laid it out pretty clearly.

Andrew claims to have shot someone who had no claimed doctor protects and didn't die. Said person flipped town Vigilante. Mafia didn't protect a town vigilante, ergo Andrew has no shot, ergo Andrew is scum.

Bump [got shot, didn't die, so the mafia doctor was protecting bump that night.

Bump MIGHT be town protected by the mafia doctor, on the bleeding edges of possible, but Andrew

LIED ABOUT THE SHOT.

He must be scum.

You're #1 pick for serial killer.

And I'm worried about Rain and packman, but the plan to keep me *shudder* magnetic, and EMP alive for tomorrow while having shots go into the three questionable slots is good.

Magnetic actually raises a good point - do we tell the serial killer and scum whose getting shot on that list by Emp, since one of the three is the mafia doctor and thus there's no protections for mafia, or do we let them all play WIFOM on shot targets? More chance of the Serial Killer and/or scum overlapping with us that way, and ideal is tomorrow that all three are dead, so I'd prefer if Emp called his shot. But up to him.

[GreyICE]

@Chocolate cake - he claimed to shoot kage. Serial killers CAN SHOOT. I doubt he would do anything other than claim his shot if he was SK, because he'd already be pants-on-head stupid to claim vig and ensure that he could not possibly win the game if he was SK.

On the other hand, scum sacrificing a team member to get town vigs killed is good play.

Also I'm 80% that you're the serial killer, and that rather clears andrew, don't it

[GreyICE]

Now be a nice SK and vote Andrew. You know you need one of them dead, and Emp hates my guts and doesn't ever listen to me so he'll probably shoot someone not you just to spite me. Then you just have to convince people it's magnetic and not you. Claiming scum in thread is just a bad idea so don't do that

[GreyICE]

Grey, you can drop the "OMG, cake is SK" act. Seriously, it's getting cheesy at this point.

MAFIA CAN SHOOT TOO. BTW, pants-on-head stupid describes his play pretty well in some games.

Also, it actually might not have been bad play to kamikazee kage as SK. It put us in this "must lynch mafia" situation, which is good for SK because we can't lynch him without losing now.

Now, why are you trying to railroad the andrew lynch now that magnetic is here?

P. Edit: What is this good cop-bad cop routine?

So he claimed serial killer in thread, then claimed a shot he didn't take to get Kage lynched, which 100% ensured his lynch today for fakeclaiming, as serial killer? Nah. Whereas the mafia motivation is obvious - mislynch Kage, lose one of your own, get two more nights of three different shots flying around. Andrew just outlived his usefulness, and ate a bus.

[GreyICE]

Sweet. Figured it was Rain after the vote switch from Pacman. Good news for us all.

Bump is so painfully obvscum here.

Will wait for claims before voting.

NOTE: I AM CONFIRMED TOWN. I BLOCKED WIZRAK SHOT. MAFIA DOCTOR IS DEAD. SUSPECTING ME MEANS YOU ARE SCUM.

[GreyICE]

Thoughts.

CONFIRMED TOWN:

EmpKing
GreyICE

Confirmed Scum:
Bump (last mafia)

Serial Killer possibilities:
Wizrak-slot (most likely now)
EvilPacman


Huh. Town can't lose.

NIGHT ACTION PLAN:

EmpKing - shoots one of Magnetic/EvilPacman
GreyICE - Protects EmpKing
Whoever is real doctor from EvilPacman/Magnetic - protects GreyICE

One shot tonight! That means that I can't die and Emp can't die. If we kill doctor, we speed lynch other tomorrow. If we kill SK we win instantly.

Vote: MrBump

INITIATE SPEED LYNCH PROTOCOL

REAL DOCTOR PROTECT ME

REAL SERIAL KILLER DIE LIKE A LITTLE BITCH

[GreyICE]

Empking, I'm a fucking confirmed town doctor. I followed the plan last night. And I can tell you who you shot

I claimed when I said I blocked your Wizrak shot. The Mafia is 100% dead. Who blocked your Wizrak shot? Either he's bulletproof (aka the Serial Killer) or I saved his life. In either case, I can't really be the Serial Killer now, can I? Confirmed. Fucking. Town.

Also, you shot EvilPacman. Want me to tell you why?

[GreyICE]

I mean besides the obvious bit of him being the Serial Killer, and therefore totally immune to NKs, and thus he could be the only one you could have shot who lived.

[GreyICE]

Fairly simple.

I replaced in. When I replaced in, Wizrak was going to die. I used my doctor ability to save him.

If he was going to die due to night actions, he could not possibly be the Serial Killer. I'm confirmed town, you're confirmed town, there's no mafia. 1+1+1 = DEAD PACMAN

Vote: EvilPacman18

[GreyICE]

Now we're on standby for magnetic to show up.

[GreyICE]

Dead thread is now probably a tad annoyed about my replacement.

In my defense, I did warn Olinea, and I'm following the doctrine "Play to Win." Which I am doing in style

[GreyICE]

The flavor, btw?

TOTALLY BADASS.

Nominating this game for the flavor.

[GreyICE]

Night 3
Protections
GreyICE protects Magnetic (+1)
Magnetic protects GreyICE (+1)
Chocolate Cake protects Empking (+1)

What the balls?

[GreyICE]

Town win rates would seriously increase about 5% if everyone followed the orders of confirmed town for night actions, no matter how awesome they thought their own brain worked.

I mean if Emp had died, we'd have mislynched magnetic. That's just insane...

PEDIT: eh, bump, Andrew claiming to shoot Kage was a really bad claim in retrospect. He should have claimed to shoot someone randomly scummy (like Aaah/Wizrak) and say that he figured kage would be mafia doctor protected.

He'd have gotten right the heck away with it.

[GreyICE]

Also, one of you and Andrew claiming scum in the thread and calling "Serial Killer: Flip a coin, heads King, Tails ICE" would have raised the possibility of double kills and made it possible for one of the confirmed town to die, which would have raised the possibility of each of you winning the game a lot.

I needed the 4:3:1 day to be a total stampede where people would think of bussing and stuff rather than, y'know, claiming Mafia in the thread

PEDIT: Thanks!

[GreyICE]

Well if you shoot the same target as the serial killer, the target will die past a single doctor protect.

With a coin flip, there would have been 50% odds of it landing on the same person, and thus killing confirmed town. Best I could have done there was yank my protection from Magnetic and toss it on King, but realizing that you both could have just doped the coin flip and shot me instead.

It also would have ensured the Serial Killer didn't shoot scum, leaving only the vig as a person who could shoot scum. It basically raised the chances of a 2:2:1 or 1:2:1 scenario quite a bit.

[GreyICE]

The above should be 3:2:1...

[GreyICE]

Hahaha

Well I needed the day to be utter stampede level chaos so no one sat down and planned it out

[GreyICE]

Haha!

Why the obsession with the SK? I mean I didn't really care, I was turning the three of you into a shooting gallery day 3 (you understand why, I assume) but that really made me think you were pushing suspicion away, especially when you didn't want a "SK candidate" lynched.

But he was the Mafia doctor

[GreyICE]

To be entirely honest I'm somewhat disappointed EPM, Bump, and andrew didn't die pretty much right away.
-EPM said "I called him scum d1" right before I flipped vig. It wasn't inherently scummy but it seemed really suspicious.
-I shot Bump (which I would hope would seem obvious after my flip of vig) and no one claimed to have saved him. Screams SK/maf to me.
-andrew... well I'm surprised Empking didn't shoot andrew right after my flip, but he got lynched so I guess I can't complain on this one.

The second point is exactly why Bump was obvscum to us. We just didn't lynch as fast as we should have. Grey I don't get how you noticed vatesi spending the whole game talking about what the vigs should do but overlooked all the time I spent talking about the SK.

TBH, I just needed you, Rain, and Cake shot at because I needed at least one dead scum coming out of that night, and I thought they'd never risk the doctor in a Vig counterclaim gambit. Which meant that whether Bump was SK or not, there was one vulnerable mafia in the three of you.

So SK hunting wasn't huge on my list of priorities, I just needed some sort of scumflip to get it into 3:1:1, which lead to exactly what happened.

Anti making a case on Bump (potential SK) versus Andrew (fairly obv mafia) really cemented to me that it HAD to be him and he wanted Andrew alive for "Oh he's the SK" screen.

Never considered that he'd just missed the fact that andrew had taken a 'shot that could not have been fired'

But overall the plan was solid no matter how many mistakes I made, as long as you guys didn't double up to nail one of the three town I could prove.

[GreyICE]

And even if you had, EMP's good vigging would have left it with 3:1:1, just with one less confirmed town (two less if he didn't realize Magnetic was confirmed). So lynching bump would have been obv, and the endgame probably would have played out similarly if you'd double tapped me. At least I had my fingers crossed it would. But yeah, much less certainty that way.