Open 295 -- Island Paradise Mafia -- Game Over

[ChannelDelibird]

Hi everyone. I'll be reading up tomorrow and let you know my thoughts.

[ChannelDelibird]

Some stuff came up that stopped me from reading the thread immediately. I'm wading into it now, will have thoughts for you within 18 hours.

[ChannelDelibird]

This game is a really, really bad read. Really bad. I've skipped large swathes of it - reading through it all from cover to cover might not be the best way to tackle it. I'm going to look at things player-by-player.

First things first, Jora is obvtown. I don't see mafia or SK making the selfvote he did at the time he did at all.

I'm looking at TT first as his is the largest wagon that isn't on me. This farside post (and you'd better thank me, farside, for linking you, as I noticed you said you hated people who just give post numbers, which is how I usually do it ;_;) makes an interesting catch on the reasons for TT's cjdrum vote early game and how his portrayal of those reasons has differed. So that's an interesting place to start.

The claim immediately after that has got me thinking about what mafia would want to claim today if under pressure. I've not thought too much about the setup probabilities (that's not really my thing), so correct me if I'm wrong here, but I can't help feeling like mafia would want to claim doctor today after the no-kill, to try and draw out a counterclaim or tell (or, indeed, not, and then get away with it). But then I haven't played with TT before and so am not sure how likely he is to have come to the same conclusions as me - but as it is, I am inclined to see the vanilla claim as a slight town tell.

Oh, while I'm thinking about it, DRK is prolly town, too, that was one of the only things I got out of the first few pages of Day 1.

Will go over TT in a bit more depth next, but my gut feeling from the last few pages is leaning scum despite the claim. He's been noticeably quieter since his claim and it could be that he's laying low to see if the DRK wagon or my wagon took off instead.

[ChannelDelibird]

Of those three, from my POV, Toast is the only choice. I still have to read him fully and some other options, but if it's a straight choice between those three wagons then it really isn't a choice.

[ChannelDelibird]

Eh, I was just weighing up pros and cons, but when you put it that way I'd probably vote me for doing that too.

Not that that makes me change my opinion on the subject, I just see why you'd think it was a scummy thing for me to say.

[ChannelDelibird]

Also, making scumbuddy connections before a flip is not clever.

[ChannelDelibird]

OK, due to class I'm not able to write up any kind of long post until this afternoon, but I'll be on and active when I get back in a couple of hours or so.

Pending that, though, I am vanilla.

[ChannelDelibird]

OK, back, I have about an hour and a half before I need to go out again so I'm gonna use that time to reread a few people and get some opinions out there for you guys. This will probably be a bit spammier than I usually like to be, so I apologise in advance for that.

Let's start with Yabbaguy, seeing as Magua asked me about him. On my first skim-read when I replaced in he didn't stand out either way. I've just reread him in iso and he comes out fairly townish. He encourages succinctness from DRK early on, which is a pro-town thing to do, and I thought his vote on startransmission was fairly good. Something that bothered me a little was that he spent a while before that vote talking about how the scum were most likely in the lurkers, but waited a little before actually voting for one of those lurkers. But generally he's in the habit of having opinions and sticking to them consistently.

I'm going to look at farside and Sundy next. farside because she seems to be doing exactly what Magua had a go at me for (having one's cake and eating it too) with regards to saying how she thinks my thoughts on Toast's claim looked townish but she's still sitting on my wagon at deadline, and Sundy because I honestly can't recall anything (s)he's done in this game.

[ChannelDelibird]

This post makes me want to vote farside.

[ChannelDelibird]

This post makes me want to vote farside.

This response also makes me want to vote farside - she ignores the flip-flopping and inconsistencies that Sundy said led him to have a funny feeling about her and simply derides the phrase "funny feeling" instead.

[ChannelDelibird]

Vote: Toast

by the way, not going to get any other wagon off the ground, obviously.

[ChannelDelibird]

I have a problem with fitz making a pretty-much-entirely gut vote on cjdrum and then saying that DRK and Toast are suspect for doing apparently the same (Toast was on record saying it was a gut vote too).

[ChannelDelibird]

This post feels forced.

[ChannelDelibird]

So does this one.

I could see ZeroFang as scum.

[ChannelDelibird]

Fitz just talks vaguely about iso rereads changing his views one way or the other while not really saying why. Case in point.

[ChannelDelibird]

And by ZeroFang I mean Magua, of course, who gave plenty of opinions but with pretty much no reasoning attached to any of them upon replacing in. His thoughts on whether DRK or Yabbaguy could be my hypothetical scumbuddies were good, but unless I'm mistaken the only things he actually said about me/cjdrum were linking to two posts by cjdrum which he simply said got "five minuses" from him and then criticising what he saw as fencesitting from me on Toast - which I have said is understandable, but that's pretty much it so far as his case goes. He doesn't give any reason as to why Toast should not be lynched today despite the fact that it's clearly a choice between the three of us, you'd have thought he would want to try and give the people voting Toast at the time a reason to leave that wagon.

[ChannelDelibird]

So yeah, if you're asking me to call the scumteam right now, I'd say farside/Magua. I haven't looked at connections between the two yet, because that's silly to do before either has flipped, but those are the two scummiest to me so far, with fitz behind them.

[ChannelDelibird]

So CDB...you don't think either of the other frontrunning wagons are scum? Why vote for one of them then? Just to save yourself?

Uh, yeah. Of course. Would you rather I voted for someone with zero votes at what I believe was five or so hours until deadline? What use would that be? Realistically one of myself, Toast, and DRK is getting lynched today - I know I'm town, I think DRK is town, I see Toast as null. Therefore it's pretty obvious to me who I should be voting. What are you trying to say here?

[ChannelDelibird]

I have a problem with fitz making a pretty-much-entirely gut vote on cjdrum and then saying that DRK and Toast are suspect for doing apparently the same (Toast was on record saying it was a gut vote too).

Fitz just talks vaguely about iso rereads changing his views one way or the other while not really saying why. Case in point.

Fitz, did you want to respond directly to either of these posts?

[ChannelDelibird]

To confirm: If necessary I will vote for myself at deadline to ensure we don't no-lynch. But obviously, that's a last resort.

[ChannelDelibird]

Back and here until deadline. I'll move my vote to me at the last moment unless someone comes in and hammers Toast.

[ChannelDelibird]

Toast is hardly going to vote for himself, is he? Especially given my stated intentions.

[ChannelDelibird]

Ah. Right. Carry on, then.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm waiting another two minutes, just in case.

[ChannelDelibird]

For what it's worth I'm sorry to be leaving without a great deal of solid opinion as any kind of legacy, but I'm just saying it right here that Jora is obvtown. That's the most clear thing I've seen. (Setting myself up for a hilarious post-game fall, of course.)

[ChannelDelibird]

OK, looks like there's no avoiding this then. Good luck, town.

Unvote, Vote: ChannelDelibird

[ChannelDelibird]

No, the link in your last post says the deadline occured 45 seconds ago.