Open 304 - Hard Boiled, Game Over. Was DY's Dystopia saved?

[zMuffinMan]

Well considering I'm the new nameloc and I'm not scum, replace nameloc with RedCoyote in your list, don.

How he managed to go through D1 without being called out for being scum is beyond me.

And I have no idea where this case on my player slot came from, but I'm willing to bet it's a steaming pile of crap. I'd be willing to bet 1-2 scum were latching onto don's vote on me. And I'd also be willing to bet that at least 1-2 scum jumped on the DK wagon at the end of yesterday. That's just gut, but I don't think it's a coincidence that I had a huge wagon on me followed by a jump to DK and him getting lynched.

RedCoyote and Newman need to be lynched or vigged soon.

[zMuffinMan]

I won't make a case on Newman until I've seen him post.

As for RedCoyote, there are particular aspects of his play that gave me really scummy vibes on reading through.

He was being really wishy-washy in justifying why his vote was still on CK at certain points (e.g. when asked whether he thought CK's play was anti-town or scummy, he said he wasn't sure but it's worth a vote. Later, when toffee pointed out RC was still voting for chess, he tried to justify it again by saying that CK was the one he wanted lynched the most, despite acknowledging there was no case on CK).

After unvoting CK, he sheeped wagons the rest of the day (DK->toffee->DK) - go back and check his posts for justification (hint: there is none). While it isn't outright scummy that he sheeped, the fact that he had no better scum read than CK followed by his sheeping just reeks of scum.

His posts are largely fluff, there's a lot of discussion that goes nowhere - no suspicions, just answering questions or pointing out things that have no relevance to scum hunting.

Also, little snipes at DK while on the DK wagon at the end of the day just came off as scummy to me (e.g. #231, misrepresenting DK, and his comments towards DK in #273)

And I just have a gut feeling that he was scum jumping on DK after the early vanilla claim.

[zMuffinMan]

Well, the reason I didn't want to make a case on you is because I was looking for something in your first post today, but you didn't post what I expected you'd post.

I was mostly null on you when reading through D1, but your interactions with DK at the end of D1 ("you're scum!" "obvscum!" etc) looked like you were trying to pull a gambit I've seen scum do quite often (followed by coming out all apologetic the next day saying they were wrong). Although, in hindsight, I should have just lurked until you responded because my initial post probably skewed your response.

[zMuffinMan]

1. smashbro_of_the_SSS
2. toffee
3. don_johnson
6. RedCoyote
8. Amrun
9. Scott Brosius
10.

nameloc1986

zMuffinMan
12. HellloooNewman

Three scum, a vig and a HT in there. Betting good money RC won't claim HT.

My top scum pick is RC. I probably won't budge from this unless I see good reason to.

VOTE: RedCoyote

Amrun needs a bullet to the head if RC flips scum. Actually, Amrun needs to die one way or the other. There is so much insincerity here

Scum killed chesskid, when his scumdar was leading him astray?!

coupled with CK considering the possibility that Amrun was scum at the end of D1. I don't think the fact she was on "every" wagon is a tell, though.

[zMuffinMan]

@Scott,

I think Amrun really didn't know it was the hammer, but I do not believe for a second that she didn't want DK lynched.

@Amrun,

He suspected Surye most, but also Scott Brosius and toffee.

Scott Brosius has been wholly unimpressive, but CK was really the only one to express suspicion.

That would be legitimate if CK wasn't more suspicious of the people jumping bandwagons at the end of the day.

It also makes sense that CK could have been killed with that in mind.

But you're new here, zmuffin, so you don't understand how weird a chesskid nk is in this situation. He is ... not popular, among many, and sometimes policy lynched, though I think he has good scumdar and don't agree with that.

The problem with this theory is that you (and a few others) clearly stated you think he is town in this game, so there was no viable way anyone could have pushed for a mislynch on him without changing the minds of several players or (if they're scum) being inconistent with their previous reads.

Regardless of what normally happens, it was never going to happen in this game. He looked town.

But if you think his scumdar is good, then surely you can agree that it's likely there was scum jumping on the DK wagon at the end of D1.

[zMuffinMan]

I never said I didn't want DK lynched. I did, and I said as much. I didn't mean to end the day, though.

Yeah, I was clarifying that I think you didn't realise you were the hammer, but I also think you wouldn't have had a problem with ending the day then and there. I think you knew you were at least putting him at L-1, and you don't do that unless you're fine with a hammer coming at any time.

[zMuffinMan]

That you're not willing to recognize that there were reasonable issues with nameloc's play yesterday is already a bad sign. Had I replaced into this slot, I would probably not open with the sweeping (and false) generalization that those who had issues with nameloc yesterday were full of crap. There were real, substantial issues with some of the things he said.

That's cool. Don't particularly care what you would have done.

I don't think that word means what you think it means. I don't have the luxury of posting often enough to make fluff posts, so at the very outset here we're having a real disconnect in interpreting this game. I mean, if you'd care to elaborate what exactly you think I'm saying that would constitute as fluff, then perhaps we can argue a bit.

I call it fluff because there's no real content. And by no real content, I mean not once yesterday did you actually post anything that made me think you're scum hunting. Literally not once. You kept your vote on CK for most of the day, unwilling to actually take a stance on whether you thought he was scummy while saying you thought he was the best lynch. Then you did a bit of vote-hopping between DK->toffee->DK while posting more walls that really contained very little relevant content.

For example, what was the reason you felt the need to point out how you would have played if you had replaced into my slot? Do you think I'm scummy because I'm not playing the way you think I should? Is there any real reason you felt the need to mention that?

Do you want me to go through every one of your posts and dissect why I think there's little to no relevant content?

This does not compute. Is she town or isn't she?

Where's the inconsistency? I don't think she's town. I also don't believe she knew she was the hammer when she hammered DK.

[zMuffinMan]

I'd rather not because I can already tell you're not being very fair.

OK.

I'll be blunt here, and you can tell me where I'm not being fair.

You asked a lot of questions yesterday (to appear like you were scum hunting), but did nothing with the answers (essentially meaning the questions you asked were useless). You had no real suspicions yesterday. You thought CK was anti-town, but you weren't sure whether he was scummy. You didn't have any better suspicions than CK, who you admitted there was no case on. Then you switched over to DK->toffee->DK with almost no reason given except that you agreed with someone else or liked the wagon.

Is there a reason you think I'm not being fair here? Do you think there's some misrepresentation going on?

The example you've given is pertinent to this game. It speaks to your intellectual honesty (or lack thereof) that you are coming into this game effectively telling those (which is quite a few of us) that suspected nameloc yesterday to be full of crap.

Do you think I'm scummy or do you not think I'm scummy for doing what I did after replacing in?

I wasn't asking you to validate your question in any other way than this.

If it's not going to help you determine my alignment, then there was no reason to mention it.

And this is the major problem I have with your play. Lots of questions or statements but you haven't actually been hunting scum.

Maybe you do believe this, but maybe you're trying to appease the Amrun wagon while simultaneously causing some misdirection by voting me and drumming up a new offense on me based on an old argument. I could conceivably see some Amrun - Muffin pairing here.

hahahaha,

What Amrun wagon? There were no votes on Amrun before I posted today. Before you posted, there was a single vote on her. What wagon was there to appease?

Try harder.

[zMuffinMan]

EBWOP:

And again, you could conceivably see an Amrun-Muffin pairing. How about you take a solid stance.

Do you think I'm scum or not? Why or why not?

[zMuffinMan]

Unvote

Do you really think RC is not scum because he attacked Amrun?

If anything, his attack on Amrun and his #332 strengthen my scum read on him.

Look, think about it like this... What do don or I have to gain from "distancing" or "avoiding" the Amrun wagon? The hider died last night. It's very unlikely from the kills that he was hiding behind one of the townies that died (Surye softclaimed a PR and DH thought CK was town the entire D1). Scum know it's likely the hider hid on one of them. Even Amrun herself came out and said that. So why do you think it's more likely that scum wouldn't bus each other?

[zMuffinMan]

eh. Just look at this thread from the perspective that RC is scum with Amrun. Start with #273, where he clearly states Amrun needs to be held accountable for the hammer (and this should set off alarms for anyone who's actually reading between the lines here).

If RC isn't scum with Amrun, I'd be shocked.

[zMuffinMan]

So you're either an apathetic vig or scum trying to out the real vig. If you don't want to play, then replace out.

At this point I'd rather lynch RC and have the Amrun issue sorted with a NK.

[zMuffinMan]

No roleblocker types in this set up. Im not lynching without a cc. If amrun is vig then its smash, toffee, red coyote.

Suspicions match mine, except sssssssss is in a grey area with newman at the moment.

I don't think Amrun should be lynched even if there is a cc. I'll assume Amrun is lying if a cc comes, but that will be sorted by NKs. I'd rather go with a RC/toffee lynch today. Preferrably RC.

VOTE: RedCoyote

[zMuffinMan]

Yeah, regardless of whether Amrun is scum or real vig, she was going to claim Vig after SB came out with his result.

[zMuffinMan]

The way RC addressed Amrun does not read as bussing to me.

Why do you think that?

Look, consider this:

- His vote on Amrun was his first somewhat-justified vote this game. Literally. He hasn't justified any of his other votes at all. You don't think there's any deeper meaning behind this?
- He signalled that he would put pressure on Amrun yesterday (#273: "Amrun needs to be held properly accountable"). Even if you don't want to read deeply into this (because it's very easy to interpret this as RC knowing what DK is going to flip), you can at least see that he had every intention of voting Amrun today if DK flipped town.

I just don't see the case on RC and I don't want to lynch that quickly... From my brief read over it looks like lack of content? And voting for CK?

It's really not so much lack of content, as the scum motivation behind his lack of content.

None of his D1 votes had any real justification, he formed no reads at all D1 (or at least mentioned no reads).

His vote on CK essentially gave him a roost in which he sat while observing the game, asking questions for no reason (I say no reason because generally when one asks questions, they do something with the answers. RC asked a lot of questions but... formed absolutely no reads from the answers, and didn't use the answers in any way). And when questioned about why he was still voting CK, said CK was the best lynch despite acknowledging prior to this that there was no case on CK and that he was unsure whether CK was scummy.

Even D2, he's still not committing to reads. Even though I clearly asked him to commit to reads, he's still being wishy-washy so he doesn't get on the wrong side of anyone. Take his #323 for example:

I could conceivably see some Amrun - Muffin pairing here.

Yeah... And I could conceivably see almost any two players being a scum pairing, so this is essentially a fluff statement. Like all of his D1 play, he still doesn't commit to a read.

And after your claim he comes out with...

I can go with Muffin-Amrun-don though. For sure.

Even if this were true, he's happy to go with this scum team purely because neither don or I put pressure on Amrun over someone who has been playing in a much scummier manner.

Look, I can't really do anything other than point you to the things I think are scummy. If you read his posts and assess it differently to me, than nothing I say is going to change your mind. You need to take some initiative and look at RC's posts and decide whether you think he's town or scum. I think it's dumb to base what you think his alignment is purely on the fact he was voting for your top scum suspect today. Bussing isn't as unnecessary as you think it is now that we know there isn't a tracker and two other investigative PRs are dead; look at how he's earned town points in your mind purely because he voted for Amrun.

--

Both toffee and ssssssss haven't posted since the claim actually. Unless I missed a toffee post somewhere.

[zMuffinMan]

What was the purpose in asking so many "rhetorical" questions?

I may have been wrong that not all of your questions were useless, but you linking me to one instance where you asked a question and then used someone's response in some way doesn't really change the overall situation here.

You asked a lot of questions, but didn't use those questions to form cases, or give reads, or anything.

-----

Re: your D1 votes, I want you to explain the following:

In #53 you said you weren't sure whether it was scummy or anti-town, but you were sure that it was worth a vote. I don't really have an issue with this alone, except for the fact that you neglect to really mention any further suspicion of anyone whatsoever until your #169, where you tell us that if the day were to end right now, you'd want CK lynched (which indicates you haven't got a better scum read on anyone in the 168 posts prior to this). Still, this is somewhat contradictory because in the very same post you vote DK, which leads me to the next point...

No, I argued with both DK and toffee a number of times

Right, but almost all of this came after you were already voting them, and you never actually gave very good reasons for your votes. #121 was not an argument with toffee, but I'll acknowledge you did have a conversation with him. #169 was the first time you could be said to have "argued" with either of them, but even then I disagree that you did it here, either (and this was where you voted DK). Actually I don't really see any arguments outside of #198, in which you called bullshit on something DK did and asked toffee to state clearly whether he thought DK was scummy (which is kind of ironic).

Your first DK vote was just you agreeing with Newman - I suppose this was somewhat justified in that you were sheeping here. Your move to toffee had no real reason (other than it's possible DK+toffee are scum together). Your second move to DK was because of his vanilla claim - while that was anti-town of him, you never really told us why you think it was scummy.

The biggest problem I have is that you never once gave any of your reads in an unambiguous way. You never gave town reads. You never gave scum reads. You hinted at one point that you thought toffee+DK could be scum together, but that's about as close as you ever came to giving a read. You never outright said you thought anyone was scum.

-----

Well, if Amrun is actually a Vig. Then the scumteam is going to include you or HN. Given HN's hammer, I suspect he'll be more likely to be scum than you. At the time, I would've said yes, but if Amrun is telling the truth, then no. The scumteam is probably don, HN, and toffee.

Seeing as you've outright neglected to mention smash, should I assume you have a town read on him and you're therefore not even considering the possibility he is scum?

Muffin, I hope you realize that the only reason don is patting you on the back and warming up to you is because he's scum. Trust me, man, I've played with this cat a number of times. He's know how to operate.

But I should trust that you're not doing the same thing, right?

[zMuffinMan]

Yeah, I may have tunnel vision going right now, but you're not really making any sort of case against don other than PoE.

Why did you choose don over toffee?

[zMuffinMan]

I don't really think we have that much to talk about at all, really.

I'm not voting don today unless you find a better reason than him being slick and possibly buddying me. I had a town read on him D1 after reading the thread during N1. It hasn't changed D2. Yeah, I could be wrong here, but I'm not going to vote for him because someone I think is scum is telling me don is scum. You haven't actually given me any reason to think he's scum, or more to the point, you haven't given me any reason to assume you're more likely town than him.

As for whether or not toffee will slip up tomorrow, that's irrelevant. He's virtually guaranteed to be scum at this point. He's the one common denominator in almost everyone suspicions. If it's not a RC lynch today, it's a toffee lynch. Out of don and toffee, toffee is a far better lynch, no matter how you think about it.

But, there are other people I want responses from, too, so UNVOTE: RedCoyote temporarily.

smash promised some sort of RC analysis and toffee needs to weigh in on the recent happenings (he hasn't posted since Amrun's claims as far as I can tell) and give his opinion on the RC wagon.

[zMuffinMan]

The major issue I have with your play (that you still haven't addressed in a way that I think is adequate) is the lack of reads from you in this game. I didn't see you pushing any cases D1, just latching onto others' cases, and even then, you didn't explicitly state that you found the people you were voting for scummy. I saw you say you liked or disliked a few things, I never saw you say you thought someone was town or scum. Even with HN, I saw you agreeing with him after a "series" of questions, but I never actually saw you say you thought he was town.

With no "reads", you had no obligations, no real accountability. Saying you "like" something, saying something is "spineless", etc does not count as giving reads. And I know you know this, because you asked toffee to give a

clear

read on DK. But you never gave clear reads of your own.

Also, your questioning of players in the game fits the bill of scum not wanting to properly engage anyone, but still wanting to appear to be scum hunting (essentially coasting). You asking "rhetorical" questions reinforces this idea in my mind.

Oh, it's possible, but, like you deduced, I have a fairly strong townread on [smash] right now.

Why didn't you mention this town read before now?

I would tell you though, since you seem interested, to look back over don's little vote jumping today from me to Amrun and back again. That's just him trying to assess which "town faction", for lack of a better term, will get him the quickest mislynch. He thought that Amrun might actually get it for a second.

Oh, I took note of that. I hated him doing that, because a lynch on Amrun is stupid, regardless of whether you believe her claim. But you were just as happy to have Amrun lynched after her claim.

I think I know why he did it, but I'd still like to hear from him why he hopped between RC->Amrun->unvote->RC.

But I agree with the point that toffee would probably be an easier lynch to coalesce around. It will just keep the scumteam a little bit stronger going into tomorrow is all, but I understand I'm speaking from a position of being, in your eyes, the more likely scum candidate than don is. Honestly I was being somewhat tongue-in-cheek with you when I said don was slicker than toffee. I didn't mean that in the sense that those should be valid grounds with which you would cast a vote against him for. I was answering more along the lines of why I was voting don over toffee, not why you should (although you're welcome to take my word for it).

The problem here is, if you're town, it's your job to convince the rest of us to vote with you. Your vote on don is essentially useless unless you can convince other people he's scum.

Also, pushing a toffee lynch while trying to convince Amrun (who I'm just going to assume is the vig now) that you're town and don is scum would be the smarter option today. I'm pretty tired right now, so I'm not sure how much of this actually made sense. Will have to look at this again when I'm awake.

[zMuffinMan]

and er

@don

Why did you vote-hop between RC->Amrun->RC?

[zMuffinMan]

try using your brain. i move to your wagon and place you at L-1. your wagon consists of:

Scott Brosius, RedCoyote, Smashbro_of_the_SSS, don_johnson

This actually is a good point. If don's buddy was off-wagon and Amrun is really vig, he had no reason to unvote (mislynch vig = game over). Which means if don is scum, his partners need to be on the wagon.

Also believe his explanation.

I will go into more detail on this later, but don is a bad lynch today.

[zMuffinMan]

Actually, never mind. Not going to start doubting myself now. I don't need to re-read anything.

don is town, scott is town, amrun is prob-vig.

toffee and RC need to die before tomorrow.

remaining scum is one of newman and smash.

VOTE: RedCoyote

[zMuffinMan]

I mean, if I thought HN or DH were scum at that point, I wouldn't be giving them props and agree with the things they say.

This doesn't necessarily imply you think they are town, either.

Who did I not engage? Or "properly" engage?

I don't think you really engaged anyone. I did not read the questions you asked as really engaging.

Like, sure, you may have addressed questions to everyone and you made some comments about them, but you were really careful not to step on any toes, and you also made no cases on anyone (as much as you want to justify your DK->toffee->DK vote-hopping, I still see it as you sheeping others while vaguely trying to make it look like you weren't sheeping).

You're acting as though I'm trying to hide these things from everyone.

Because that's what I think you were doing. Not committing to anything (saying you "like" something they posted isn't a commitment) makes it easy for you to backtrack "reads".

Nope, read above. You forgetting to factor time into this equation. don unvoted simply because his partners were not online and because the Amrun wagon was about to collapse.

No. There are several reasons this makes no sense to me, and the biggest reason why is that he didn't need to unvote, he could have just feigned inactivity until someone else unvoted her. Why would he unvote instead of leaving the possibility open for a partner to lynch? I looked at the time stamps here, so it doesn't make sense that he unvoted if he's scum.

He

could

be scum, but it's a longshot. I had a town read on him before then, and that only solidified it for me.

[zMuffinMan]

No, getting you lynched doesn't result in a scum win, because the vig can still vig correctly.

Getting the vig lynched results in an automatic scum win (3:3 tomorrow).

[zMuffinMan]

lol, what?

There are so many things wrong with #409.

Scott, I already explained how and why RC's defense swayed me in posts that came after that - so yes.

Actually, no, you didn't really explain how and why RC's defense swayed you (you said it was good and it swayed you) and you also never really said you thought he was town (just that you weren't convinced he was scum, which changed a bit later to likely town).

But, if you're committed to thinking he's town now, and you can explain how and why RC's defense swayed you, I'd like to hear it.

PS: not lynching toffee until he posts or he gets replaced.

[zMuffinMan]

but i would prefer that toffee post and say "no, i am not the vig."

Actually, now that I think about it, he's not the vig. And no one will counter-claim Amrun because the vig kill last night was bad and no one will be able to properly explain the logic behind it. The likelihood of toffee being the vig is so, so, so, so low that it's not really a concern.

[zMuffinMan]

Why does it matter who the vig kill was? They were both terrible.

[zMuffinMan]

No, not really. I said the vig kill was bad. I didn't imply anything deeper than that.

You asked a leading question, and the foundation of the question is wrong, so I avoided it.

[zMuffinMan]

toffee lynch is cool. let's do it.

Unvote

VOTE: Toffee

[zMuffinMan]

the first post imo, implies that you know rc is town.(this obviously conflicted with my read on him, so i didn't make much of it.) when i read the second statement i thought you were referring to the surye kill. if amrun is scum, then he might not be telling the truth, so the only player who knows who the actual vig kill is, is the vig. get it? your response is ok, because you state that you were referring to the kill, and not either player specifically. so really, its nothing.

I knew after I said the first one that someone would make an issue out of it, because I read it after it was posted and noticed it myself. In my defense though, I was tired and I was talking in context of the previous post (where RC was saying either Amrun-vig or RC-town getting lynched didn't make a difference).

[zMuffinMan]

Well

Now the pressure is on Amrun to redeem herself.

If you fail, you lose town the game, Amrun. Get it right.

No pressure though.

[zMuffinMan]

So anyway, D2/N2 made up for the horrible start to the game. I'm going to go back and look through the thread again for toffee/newman links before I do anything, but I'm still suspicious of RC. Scott is obvtown and don is a town read of mine so at this point I'm thinking one of smash or RC, and since it's 4:1 this doesn't seem like too big an issue. Will see what I find after re-reading.

[zMuffinMan]

Actually, I really need to think through D2 properly. There were two scum on the RC wagon with me at one point.

[zMuffinMan]

I got about halfway through doing a VCA and got extremely bored of writing.

tl;dr of it is that this was the D1 wagon:

DeityKabuto [7] -

nameloc1986

zMuffinMan,

HellloooNewman

,

toffee

, RedCoyote, don_johnson,

DemonHybrid

,

Amrun

And the signficant things to be garnered from D2 are that

1) RC is not scum unless he was getting majorly bussed by both his scum buddies. Willing to rule that out for now.
2) don is not scum unless he's stupid. Neither toffee or newman were on the Amrun wagon, and he could have left his vote there if he was scum with them. He's almost-confirmed town for me.

SB is confirmed town.

I'm happy with a Smash lynch today.

VOTE: Smash

[zMuffinMan]

Oh, and the significance of the D1 wagon for me is that I don't think all 3 scum were on that. Although it was a counter-wagon to toffee D1, I'm still more inclined to believe Smash (who was not voting at the end of D1) was scum off the wagon.

[zMuffinMan]

Eh, well at the moment, I'm just going of PoE.

@don,

If RC is scum, consider that newman and toffee both came straight out trying to bus RC at the beginning of D2. Do you think this is more likely than them going for a mislynch?

I'm not completely ruling out bussing, but I think it's a lot more likely that smash is the remaining scum.

[zMuffinMan]

Also, Newman's ISO#30 needs to be taken into consideration. This was him reacting to RC 'flip-flopping' and saying it's possible smash isn't town.

[zMuffinMan]

gg

[zMuffinMan]

OK, RC, sorry but it's like there were a whole bunch of coincidences that led me to thinking you were scummy D2 and when you came out with a vote on don who I was almost certain was town, that just made me think you were scum even more. That's why I wanted to know why you would go for don over toffee. And I put my vote back on you then. When you changed to toffee, I reconsidered. Wasn't as sure you were scum as I was toffee so I was happy with a toffee lynch D2. Good vig N2. And D3 was pretty obvious.

[zMuffinMan]

How was don obvscum btw? I swear I had a town read on him after reading D1, and that town read stuck the whole game. Especially after the unvote on Amrun when she was at L-1. Like... That would have been the dumbest move don-scum could have made.

[zMuffinMan]

Sorry for quickhammering and leading to that. It was a legitimate accident.

Yeah, like I said at the beginning of D2, I fully believed that you didn't know you hammered, but that didn't change the fact you were fine with him being lynched then and there.

oh, and reading over the dead thread, once amrun claimed vig, we were screwed. even if we counterclaimed, the town thing to do would leave both alive and let them shoot each other at night. I was going to claim vig until i realized that and so did someone from the town, so i figured i wouldn't out myself like that.

Yeah, I think both don and I pointed this out at some point. This is another reason I was suspicious of RC. Keeping his vote on Amrun while saying "you don't expect us to believe you're the vig, do you?" just rubbed me the wrong way. There was no reason to lynch Amrun D2 when she claimed vig.