Open 295 -- Island Paradise Mafia -- Game Over

[izakthegoomba]

Hi all. Of I go to read 30+ pages. I'll be back shortly-ish.

[izakthegoomba]

I had to go away unexpectedly last night. I'm back now and will continue reading.

[izakthegoomba]

As of page 5,

}|{opa

looks bad. The self-vote certainly doesn't win him any favors. I guess something big must have happened to stop his lynch?

[izakthegoomba]

Page 10. Don't really see where the }|{opa wagon went. The whole farside-fitz thing looks like it

could

just be a townie-on-townie fight, but fitz in particular does seem to be ranting a bit. Not sure what to make of this yet, I'll read on.

Sorry for the multiple posts, I'll try and stop now.

[izakthegoomba]

I'm getting on with it. I'm still trying to host a game and get on with my life, but I won't be too long.

[izakthegoomba]

Having read further, I get a strong feeling that the bad guys could be yabba or toast or }|{opa, or Amy combination of those three.

Forgive me if they're dead, I might not be that far yet.

[izakthegoomba]

Page 21... Toast looks really scummy. Like, really,

really

scummy. Annoyingly, DRK, my former self, hasn't done me any favours so far.

Oh, that last post should have read:

"...or any combination..."

[izakthegoomba]

Having read further, I get a strong feeling that the bad guys could be yabba or toast or }|{opa, or

any

combination of those three.

Damn iOS spellcheck.

[izakthegoomba]

"Stream of consciousness"? You mean the way I just post what's on my mind?

[izakthegoomba]

Page 24... I have to agree with farside on the whole cjdrum-is-a-VI thing. The "cute, newbiesh feel" bit kind of sums it up (look who's talking!).

DRK is annoyingly screwing things up for me, and has been lurking throughout. No wonder s/he got replaced. Also, I don't see why the gender is such a big deal. Someone enlighten me?

In #591, ChannelDelibird calls Jora "obvtown", which caught my attention. I do see his point, but it kind of makes a WIFOM. Sorry if that's been mentioned already. The farside post he links to is also of interest.

[izakthegoomba]

Well, NS did say he liked colourful games.

Yes, in Rule 6.

[izakthegoomba]

Firstly, did I inherit that vote from DRK?

Secondly, could someone give me/link me to/give me the number of a decent case against Sundy, just so I can assess the situation? I don't want to keep wasting everyone's time.

[izakthegoomba]

I'm up to date, mostly waiting for MS.

[izakthegoomba]

Now in glorious green. I hope that won't make anyone's eye's bleed.

Right at the beginning, that vig/SK speculation seems irrelevant. Looking at the wiki page on C9++ now, I think it's

slightly

more likely that we got an SK than a vig, but it could be either, or both.

Sundy looks bad, the lurking and stuff, and he really hasn't contributed to the game in any helpful manner. I'd be up for lynching him if it comes to it.

I'm not sure what to think about TT now. He looked pretty scummy to me a one point, but he seems to have come back a little bit. I'm getting a scum-but-also-kinda-null read here.

Jora is sort of on-and-off scum for me, but more town right now.

I really don't like havingfitz. Not in the same way as I think Sundy is scum, but more that many of the things he's said look like they could be from a scum mindset. It seems to me that he's saying a lot of things that I might say, if I were scum. It might mean nothing, but I've got a bad feeling about him.

I'm unsure about yabbaguy/Quilford/Midnight's Sorrow. Too much replacing. I didn't really like or dislike yabba, Quil wasn't here long enough to really make a splash, and MS has only just arrived.

cjdrum still looks like a bit of a VI.

farside is either town, or clever scum. Seems more town to me.

I think that's everyone. With all the replacing and stuff, let me know if I missed anything important.

Sundy is the biggest scum here.

VOTE: Sundy

That's L-1, people.

[izakthegoomba]

Don't be sad, fitz. It's not your fault.

hehehehehehehehehehehe

[izakthegoomba]

WTF?

WTF?

WTF?

I hope you're scum.

[izakthegoomba]

I crap, I forgot the color. But yeah, admit it now?

[izakthegoomba]

Oh crap, I spelt "oh" as "I".

Anyway, why do that then? For the dramatics?

[izakthegoomba]

He's either town trying to get a cheap laugh... Or scum trying to deprive the town of info, and get a cheap laugh.

[izakthegoomba]

Oh, and technically

you

are the murderer

[izakthegoomba]

Dammit. farside was my biggest town tell.

[izakthegoomba]

Oh how I laugh. Toast, we'll vote for you whenever we want to. And I'm inclined to.

I'm not an expert on C9++, but I think there can only be one scum left, or none, right? Might have SKs though.

[izakthegoomba]

When I say "we", I mean me + anyone else who suspects you. Duh.

Yeah, I know an SK is unlikely, but it's not impossible.

So, a massclaim? Maybe. Why does MS have to go first though?

[izakthegoomba]

What did TT claim? And where do I come on this list?

[izakthegoomba]

Oh right. I guess DRK claim before I arrived then.

[izakthegoomba]

EBWOP: ...DRK

claimed

before...

[izakthegoomba]

No, I was kind of asking/assuming DRK had claimed, since you weren't asking me. Anyway.

I claim VT.

[izakthegoomba]

My biggest dislike was Sundy. Now, I'm thinking his partner was toast, even more so after that thing Jora pointed out.

Scum Roles

TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather
TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Doc Bypass, Block Bypass)
TTTTT = 2 Goons + Godfather
TTTT = 2 Goons + Godfather, Serial Killer (Doc Bypass, Block Bypass, Kill Immune)
TTT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Doc Bypass, Block Bypass, Kill Immune, Investigation Immune)
T = Spy + Roleblocker + Godfather
0 Ts = Spy + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Doc Bypass, Block Bypass, Kill Immune, Investigation Immune, Spy Immune, Roleblocking)

What I glean from that is that there must be no more than 4 Ts. Any more and we would win already. The setup is TTTVD??, with no mor than one more T, meaning we must still have at least one power role. In fact, since an SK is unlikely, we probably have two more. Right? Or have I missed something big?

[izakthegoomba]

Oh right, I get it. I just missed one tiny bit.

[izakthegoomba]

Umm... I don't have a town read on him?

I really don't like havingfitz. Not in the same way as I think Sundy is scum, but more that many of the things he's said look like they could be from a scum mindset. It seems to me that he's saying a lot of things that I might say, if I were scum. It might mean nothing, but I've got a bad feeling about him.

[izakthegoomba]

Is that a complement?

[izakthegoomba]

HAS HE?

HE HAS!

I'm willing to finish this. It's dragging out and we're not really getting anywhere.

*Raises hammer*

Any last words, toast? Anyone else got some ray of sunshine hidden away?

[izakthegoomba]

No-one's posted for 14 hours? God.

Toast, the fact that you can get reads hardly helps your case. But you're right, the overall activity is pretty awful.

I'm gonna hammer just to keep the game going at this rate.

[izakthegoomba]

Are you saying you have scum reads on all of us?

[izakthegoomba]

Yeah, it's dragging out. I've refrained from hammering, but were not getting anywhere. We're either about to win or go to LyLo, so see you all in the plausible tomorrow.

VOTE: ToastyToast

@Mod the kitten one is far superior, BTW.

[izakthegoomba]

Maybe. I won't deny it's possible. But you're the biggest scum, toast.

[izakthegoomba]

Okaaaay. 2:1 LyLo. Never done this before :/

When I have the time, I'm gonna re-read. I'm not quite sure who's the scum.

[izakthegoomba]

Bump.

Now re-reading. I thought I was done with this...

[izakthegoomba]

God, this is getting me nowhere...

Fitz, I dislike your general play throughout, but it's entirely possible that it's just how you usually are. If you trul have nothing to hide, could you link me to a couple of games you played, preferably as both alignments?

MS, I get the feeling that you have been trying not to say too much. It's scummy at any stage, but when you comprise a notable chunk of the living players, you could kill the town. The x2 replacing of your slot doesn't help either. But I really want to know what you think. Who is scummier? Me or Fitz?

I read you both as scum, with neither of you being far enough apart for me to risk the game on it. I shall see what happens. Maybe re-read a bit more of D2.

Fixed tags. ~~NS

[izakthegoomba]

Thanks, I'll take a look when I have time.

[izakthegoomba]

Something I noticed from those is that fitz tends to post

way

less when he's scum. LURKERSCUM BASTARD!

But considering he has well over 100 posts in this game... well, maybe not. It could be a ploy to make him look townier, or the change could be entirely subconscious. I'm not ruling anything out.

@fitz

What was the point of that fight with farside? She was

easily

my biggest town read by the time I got there. How could you really think she was scummy? Even more so now she's flipped, it makes you look really bad to me.

@MS

How about some content now? Seriously, at least fitz said who he's "leaning towards". You have posted once this day phase, giving us nothing useful. I'm tempted to suggest you're lurking, and hoping one of us will slap an idiotic vote on the other for some reason. Who. Do. You. Think. Is. Scum?

[izakthegoomba]

I have a horrid feeling I know where this is going.

And yes, I replaced in on D3. I'm still not sure why I did it.

[izakthegoomba]

For god's sake. We're 4 RL days into D5, and we have what? 12 posts? And the play throughout the game hasn't been great, either. But this is 2-1 LyLo. Someone will WIN THE WHOLE GAME this phase.

I am the only one who has questioned anyone, or asked for explanation. I know you're V/LAing, but neither of you has scumhunted, or even tried to improve your reads. Seriously, at the most critical moments of the game, it really, really sucks.

[/reallypissedoff]

[izakthegoomba]

*twiddles thumbs*

[izakthegoomba]

It's been awhile since I have been scum so I don't recall what my posting levels were in those games. RL does influence posting ability though and who's to say what I had going on 8 months or 15 months ago (or whenever my scum games took place). You've basically just accused me of lurking as scum (not sure I agree) and pointing out my high post count in this game. So WTH are you trying to get at?

I guess I didn't make myself clear. I was saying that, based on your track record, I high post count

could

make you look townier, but it's to much of a WIFOM to make a big thing of. But I think any change is most likely unintentional.

If you think farside is a good player you should believe she has the ability to appear town when she is not town. As I do not know who is scum and who is town, certain things (which I am certain I pointed out during my exchange with farside) made her suspicious IMO. What your opinion of her is is not of concern to me. And the fact that she has flipped town matters how? I had backed off her prior to her being NK'd because I was of the opinion she was the likely Doc protect the night we did not have a NK. Ie. once certain game events pointed to the likihood of her being town, I no longer suspected her.

I don't know enough about farside to know if she's a good player, but she was my biggest town read. I know you pointed out your reasoning, but frankly, the whole exchange could easily be a really stupid town-on-town fight, or a scum (you) trying to discredit a townie.

Really? You're tempted? I have the 2nd most posts in the game and I'm lurking but you're only "tempted" to think that of MS.

As said above, I don't think you're lurking. I said you could have been lurkerscum in the past, but not this game. The "tempted" bit referred primarily to the part about him being scum hoping for a quicklynch.

---

As I said, I'm uncertain which of you is scum. You both look scummy, and if it wasn't LyLo I'd happily lynch either of you. My gut tells me that fitz is scum, because of the way he has played in general, but I don't like MS too much either. I feel that nothing either of you can say will really change my opinions now. Fitz, you're right, we have plenty of time, so I might do another total re-read.

[izakthegoomba]

Ok...

1. Any answer just seems to lead to WIFOM here. For example:

I think I was left alive because I was not coming close to suspecting the scum. But maybe the scum knew I would think this, and I actually

was

suspecting the scum, and so they let me live anyway...

You could go on and on. As usually with NK analysis.

2. Anyone playing scum had a lot to gain from those kills. They were my two biggest town reads by the time they were NK'd, and I'm guessing others thought the same too. If I was scum, I may well have made those kills.

[izakthegoomba]

Kudos for the longest post I've ever seen, fitz.

What made you so sure you would make it to tomorrow?

I wasn't sure. However, I thought I was a pretty unlikely NK target. Look at the fact that the two of you are considering me as scum. Would you be so questioning of Jora? No? So Jora was the better NK, no matter which of you is scum.

[izakthegoomba]

Kind of inevitable, I guess.

Did you have any comments on my ISOs? Defense of yourself? Agreement with any of the observations towards MS or Sundy?

In general, I agree with your comments. I haven't played too well, but I truly believe MS is scummier than me, and scummier than you in a way.

Are you doing anything substantial in terms of scum hunting at the moment?

No. In this situation, I don't want to give either of you the chance to redeem yourself of too much scumminess - I would much rather get my reads from what happened earlier.

If }|{opa had made the same comment you had I would have questioned him on it as well.

I don't doubt you would have.

How can you say }|{opa would have been the better NK if I was scum? You're saying I would get rid of someone who shared my suspicions of MS and had not made any sign recently (iirc) of suspecting me, and leave you (who had clearly stated your suspicions of me) and MS (who I think at least had exhibited some level of suspicion towards me) to go into LYLO with?

Actually, you make a good point. Taking a brief look back, I guess you wouldn't have killed Jora... but this leads to WIFOM.

Since you had such a town read on }|{opa and farside...what is your take on their final reads on people?

I can't entirely remember what their final reads were, I'll get back to you on this shortly.

BTW, what does "tl:dr:" mean?

[izakthegoomba]

I think farside's reads were mostly good, not so much for Jora - but I said I had town reads on them, not that I agreed with what they said.

The more I look into this, the more I think MS is the last scum. I don't wan't to hammer just yet and risk losing us (whoever "us" is) the game, though. I think I'll take one last look over the game.

[izakthegoomba]

Confirmed to

you

. And I'm still not

absolutely

certain.

[izakthegoomba]

I hate this bit. Everyone else can now be almost certain of the setup, and I have to figure it out. I've partially changed my mind about LyLo, actually.

MS, defend yourself NOW. I want some good reasons that I shouldn't just hammer you right now. And you can also tell me exactly why fitz is scum, and exactly what makes him scummier than you.

[izakthegoomba]

You are entitled to form your own opinion as well (as long as it's that MS is scum).

Just like Zimbabweans are entitled to vote, then.

Stop rushing it, fitz. You may know everyone's roles, but I don't. And I don't want to lose the game for the town by voting before I'm sure. I don't know if you're just frustrated Townie, or what, but seriously, STOP IT.

[izakthegoomba]

I have no

specific

questions of either of you. But we

seriously

need MS to contribute here, or it's just the two of us going backwards and forwards and getting nowhere. And come to that, I may as well hammer.

[izakthegoomba]

Well, I want to hear what he has to say, anyway.

[izakthegoomba]

I'm definitely not just coasting. I've been re-reading, checking ISOs, looking at other people's reads, etc., and the reason I've said nothing is because, while I want to hear what you (particularly MS) have to say, I only need to convince myself ATM.

As I have said, I am on the brink of hammering. I'm just going over it in my head, and waiting to see if MS is going to bother saying something.

[izakthegoomba]

Ok fitz. I think I've misread you up until now. I've just gone over your entire ISO again (crucially, without taking breaks in-between parts), looked at your votes and interactions (especially with Sundy) and dabbled in meta. I had (and, to some extent, still have) a gut feeling against you, but it's more due to differences between your and my playstyles. Looking deeper, I must confess that you are much more pro-town than I previously though.

I do still dislike the way you are consistently pressuring me to hammer, but I realise that this is, at best, only a bit scummy.

I am going to give MS until he would require a prod before I hammer, but unless he comes out with something truly groundbreaking, consider it done.

[izakthegoomba]

Oh hi, MS. Please do come in. Splendid of you to show up. No, don't worry, you don't have to do any work. Don't bother making a defense of yourself. Just pop in here now and again, keep us company. Oh, what's that? You put a vote down? Wow. I never expected such brilliance from you. That's truly revolutionary.

All joking aside, MS, if you turn out to be town, I will be seriously unimpressed.

And if I was scum, I must admit that screwing with people's heads and waiting around to hammer is exactly the sort of thing I'd do.

Here's a synopsis of what he is going to say: "Havingfitz is scum," followed by a vote on me.

Wow!

We're all just posting without saying anything meaningful. MS, did you not see my repeated demands that you do something useful? Like, a case on fitz? Or a defense of yourself? Unless that post was a precursor to something all the more impressive, I will be hammering you VERY SOON.

[izakthegoomba]

Ok. I get it. However hard the two of us push, we're never going to get any content out of you. I wasn't expecting a wallpost, but you could put in

some

effort. Whatever faction you are, you're playing very, VERY poorly here, and I seriously hope I don't end up in your faction in the future.

In the light of those three posts, I doubt anything can change my mind now. Let's do this.

VOTE: Midnight's Sorrow

If that wins the game, yay! If not, sorry.

[izakthegoomba]

Hahaha, nice try, fitz.

Well, that’s the first time I’ve survived in a game. I’m pretty happy.

All thanks to MS, of course

[izakthegoomba]

Thanks!

NS, could we have the deadthread/mafiathread pinks if it's ok with everyone?

[izakthegoomba]

EBWOP: ...links if it's ok...

And actually, thanks fitz. Your constant pestering ended up helping after all

[izakthegoomba]

Yeah, MS, WFT were you playing at? If you'd put some effort into it built a decent case one of us, you

might

have won the game. Scum, I'm sorry you had to lose because of this terrible performance.