Open 302: JUNGLE REPUB nope game over! Party time!

havingfitz · Post Post #525 (isolation #0) » Mon May 23, 2011 5:03 am

Checking in. I'm about 2/3 through my read of the game.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
@Havingfitz - Now would be a good time to get your thoughts into the thread
. I very much want to see your opinions today.

I'm very glad you want to see my opinions today.

I'll post my thoughts when I finish my read (should be today...tomorrow at the latest).

havingfitz · Post Post #532 (isolation #1) » Mon May 23, 2011 6:00 pm

OK...I finished my read. When I replace into game I usually go through the game and post my thoughts on posts as I go along. I'll post my notes below and provide more input later but I'll give my initial reads now.

Leaning scum - DK, MOI, ZMuffin, and neil. I'm not confident enough in my scum radar to believe I have pegged all four but these four have most of my suspicions. After I look through my notes again later they might change due my impending VCA....which will probably not be until tomorrow.

I'm leaning town on Hezlucky, Regfan, and Wickedestjr. Same as above...this might change after my VCA. If I left anyone out they would be a null atm.

I'll put a vote down after I have a chance to look my notes over again and do a VCA.

Feel free to fire away with any questions.

To reiterate...these scum and town reads are subject to change as I'm in no shape atm (have been out watching some playoff NHL) to elaborate on them and I'm a bit impaired. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Spoiler: My read through thoughts:

havingfitz · Post Post #554 (isolation #2) » Tue May 24, 2011 1:16 pm

zMuffinMan wrote:@hf,

I sort of skimmed over the wall.

As far as I can tell, you think I'm scum because of links to DK and... my avatar?

zMM...I don't blame anyone for skimming that wall. I made it a Spoiler to clog the page up less and give people the option of wading through it.

I don't think you are scum because of your avatar (though I was curious if that is your full time avatar). I honestly do not recall the reason atm. I know as I was catching up and posting thoughts on various posts your name was one that pinged my radar more than those I get a town feel from. I still need to give my wall-thoughts another once over and look at a few votecounts. I have been bogged down today (and recovering from a bit of imbibing last night) and have not had the chance to do any analysis.

@Regfan...as mentioned above...no, zMM's avatar is not a reason I suspect him. As mentioned below, my catch-up thoughts do not tend to get rave reviews. I don't usually post things that make me go "Hmmmmmmm....that's town." Sometimes I do but for the most part if I put something in there it's because it caught my eye (in a suspicious way) or I make note of a VC or event I might want to refer back to.

In the following quote what did you mean when you say Wicked can't be mafia?

Regfan wrote:Given the interactions yesterday and the fact that Wicked pushed the Cjdrum case almost signle-handly I don't believe there's any possible way he's mafia as he'd know that bussing could potentially lead towards him being night-killed and the town-cred gained and lynch of his partner all being for nothing.

I have a town read on him but your comment on him still confuses me. Is it because you think if he was mafia bussing his partner that the werewolves would pick up on the bussing and try to eliminate him for suspicion of being mafia? Why is Wicked not a werewolf suspect to you?

Regfan wrote:Though, to be honest I'm unsure if it's optimal to aim for werewolves or mafia today,
MoI I'd like your thoughts on this
.

Our main objective for any lynch should be to find and eliminate the werewolves. Getting any scum would be good but getting the ones who can kill has to outweigh targetting mafia.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:VOTE: Havingfitz

Now that he’s actually committed to reads in thread in his ‘catch-up’ post I feel there is information to work with.

I’ll address that monstrosity of a catch-up post later in an independent post. For now LMP’s strong suspicion of Sloth is a great jumping off point for my vote today. Especially since CJdrum's play against your slot before he was under pressure means you are very likely NOT Evil Sheep.

On the monstrosity catch-up post...I tend to get comments along that line whenever I do one. That was the main reason I Spoiler'ed it in here. It's my brief thoughts on posts that catch my attention as I catch up...like it or not.

I look forward to what I hope is a more detailed reason than someone else's suspicions...which iirc revolved around Sloth's lurking. Which I will not be guilty of.

havingfitz · Post Post #562 (isolation #3) » Wed May 25, 2011 4:43 pm

My internet went down this afternoon...ergo no chance to respond to the MOI waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaall.

BTW, that 559 post was one awesome example of AtE.

havingfitz · Post Post #563 (isolation #4) » Wed May 25, 2011 4:44 pm

EBWOP...and obviously it is now working again (my internet).

havingfitz · Post Post #564 (isolation #5) » Wed May 25, 2011 6:31 pm

Wall post warning….%^&*!

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Havingfitz wrote:I look forward to what I hope is a more detailed reason than someone else's suspicions...which iirc revolved around Sloth's lurking. Which I will not be guilty of.

1. The suspicion isn’t that he was lurking. Let’s be clear. It’s that he was actively posting in other games while not posting here. Much like CJDrum, but on a lesser scale.
2. Your level of activity does not simply wipe away Sloth’s play. You do know that right? I can give you numerous examples of scum under suspicion who replaced out for a more active player and was given pass that resulted in a Town loss.

1) I consider that a form of lurking. Fine…active posting in other games. Regardless…your suspicions of Sloth yesterday are on the coattails of LMP’s interest in voting Sloth. I see little if any Sloth focus on your part on D2 yet despite other suspicions you’ve got material/evidence/ etc. on others, you are fine with pursuing the Sloth slot’s lynch today. That is scummy IMO.
2) I do know that. You do know that people posting more in one thread vs another does not preclude them from being town? You do know that right? If anything I usually think of it as people are bored with the game they are ignoring…and IMO it is easier to be bored when you are town then when you are scum. Especially when you tend to get a lot of town roles. As for Sloth…other than LMP’s push on him for “actively posting in other games while not posting here “ I did not see any great pressure on Sloth that was going to drive him away. The only pressure I can recall was as a result of him not posting here. Not the cause of it FMPOV. And I can give examples where people have virtually ignored one game while posting prolifically in others and wound up being town. So that is a null tell IMO. I prefer suspecting people on the things they do or say…not on the absence of what they do or say.

The numbers in the wallquote below are mine and I’ll answer them in corresponding order below:

MagnaofIllusion wrote:Response to Having’s replace in post –

Specific responses to his suspicion of me:

Havingfitz wrote:8 - MOI...odd opening remarks. Provides super helpful seer claim advice (unsolicited help is suspect IMO)

Havingfitz wrote:46 - MOI seems to have a lot of modly or helpful posts. Suspicion towards him increasing....

Havingfitz wrote:58 - MOI is the game facilitator. Not a good thing IMO. Answers question for neil despite the fact neil had already answered.

1 –
An ongoing trend in your suspicions. Please explain why providing solid advice to my team is scummy.

Havingfitz wrote:17 - MOI claims to have not mulled over the specifics. So posting for the heck of it? W/O thinking your odvice over thoroughly????

2 –
Poor logic. Not having pored over every possible scenario (including whether a claim at the Day before MYLO would be optimal) does not mean the general advice wasn’t well thought out. It was clearly intended for a Day 1 claim scenario.

Havingfitz wrote: 68 - MOI wallposting with Emp. Claim his RV vote on Emp is not random...though it was the first legit vote of the game which I would assume was random. If it wasn't random....why provide absolutely no reasoning with it (that I can see)?

3 –
No, it wasn’t random. Your assumption is invalid. Emp's voted for Neil based on a pre-game post I clearly indicated to Twisted wasn't inherenly scummy pre-game. Yet Emp persisted. Thus my vote for him.

Havingfitz wrote:73 - MOI pulls out his meta to his defense. To paraphrase him, he's not playing in this game like he did in another game he was scum in. Well thats good to know...so do you always play the same way as scum MOI?

4 –
No, but I was pointing out that quite clearly Empking had direct experience very recently about how I played as scum and he was ignoring it to fling around some theory about how scum interact.

Havingfitz wrote:158 - MOI outright refusing to answer question from EMP. Scummy IMO.

4 –
Not answering questions that have been answered multiple time is scummy? Noted.

Havingfitz wrote:263 - MOI declares DK 100% VI and is willing to lynch him if necessary...though it seems policy-like.

5 –
Incorrect. I’m all for lynching a scummy player who happens to be a VI (which has NO alignment connotations at all).

Havingfitz wrote:319 - MOI is keying on the same VC I want to look over. I agree with most of what MOI says about this VC (specifically regarding Emp) but he only gives analyzes potential scum on the basis of Emp flipping scum. He does state most of the 5 on a potential Emp town wagon would likely be scum (I was thinking at least three scum but I still need to look it over).

6 –
Why should I have analysed Empking’s wagon from the standpoint of him being Town before his flip when I had a scum read on him?

This is bad “after the fact” attempt.

Havingfitz wrote:412 - MOI didn't expect Emp to flip seer.....my my.

7 –
Of course I didn’t expect him to flip Seer. He played scummy. Are you attempting to say it that’s a scum-tell?

Havingfitz wrote:444 - MOI votes my scum frontrunner DK. Bus? Chainsawing? Different alignments? Perhaps one/both of them is town? (unlikely)

8 –
Other than to say that DK and I are both scum this point says nothing concrete about our affiliation (Sheep versus Werewolf). IIoA.

Havingfitz wrote:499 - MOI setting up the next day's lynch.

9 –
Absolute mis-rep.

Havingfitz wrote:466 - MOI calling cjscum out for cj's post towards me. With cj's flip in mind...I doubt MOI is mafia. Perhaps werewolf....?

520 - And we have a self hammer. Not sure what to make of cj's comments to MOI. It's enough to make me look away from MOI but at the same time makes me wonder if that was the intent.

10 –
These two end of post comments are strikingly inconsistent.

In 466 you say my push means I am very doubtfully Mafia.
In 520 you say that you doubt CJ’s intent in his self-hammer post. What intent that indicates I am scum can you come up with that shows CJ operating on inside information that doesn’t stem from me being his partner, and thus Mafia.

--

Other non-MoI comments
-

Havingfitz wrote:322 - Great...Sloth jumps aboard the Emp train :/
325 - Great...Sloth makes a really WTF??? post. >:|

11 –
“Attacking the predecessor” scum-tell – Ding!

Havingfitz wrote:356 - Wckdjr gives rationale for not lynching Emp D2. Makes sense. Could also be coming from a werewolf?

12 –
Elaborate on why it makes sense.

1. It is a trend, that’s what makes it increasingly suspicious for me. When I am in a game and someone comes across as super helpful it immediately raises my suspicions. I have suspected people for this before, had a wallpost war with them, backed off in lieu of additional suspicions/tells, and wound up being correct. It’s a scum tell for me. If it’s not for others…fine. Also, facilitating the game to the degree I feel you are is suspicious as well because it puts you in a position direct the game in the manner that best suits your objectives or seeks to build town cred.

2. I do not think it’s poor logic. I interpreted it as you making your helpful post but not having thought out the scenario (re: seer claims) completely. Not a major tell but it just caught my eye when I read it.

3. You place the first vote once the game opens, you give a cryptic rationale for your vote, and you do not mention Emp at all that I can see prior to placing your vote. It looked like a random vote to me and I disagree with your categorizing it any other way.

4. It appeared to me that you were defending yourself to Emp by pointing out you weren’t acting in this game the way you did when you were scum in another. My point is that is no defense.

The 2nd 4. You didn’t tell Emp you had already answered his question/s multiple times. Note this:

MoI wrote:Not bothering to waste my time answering fluff.

5. How is my comment incorrect? It was pretty much a direct quote of what you said?

6. Disregard my post…you did give analysis of an Emp town flip.

7. Do I think your reaction to Emp flipping seer is a scum tell? Not a strong one but enough to catch my eye. Kind of like this:

MoI wrote: Add in that Cj was actively scummy yesterday (specifically avoiding giving reads) and today (his “Oops, Seer is dead” woe is me Tell)

8. It’s what I thought when I read it. I don’t think you and cj are the same alignment. There’s your analysis.

9. You accuse me of misrepping. You also said this:

MoI wrote: Regardless I’ll make you a deal – support the CJ wagon today and I’ll back you on Sloth tomorrow. Sound good?

If this is not setting up the next day’s lynch I don’t know what is. Your misrep accusation is a misrep.

10. How are they inconsistent? I infer that you and cj are different alignments but then say I don’t know what to make of cj’s self hammer post comments re: you? I did read the points you bring up in order so things do change. And I still do not know what to make of cjs comments re: you.

11. As I caught up I did not see anything from Sloth that I would have found suspicious until the comments you bring up. If I’m going to be honest and raise an eyebrow at other people’s actions/comments I going to state things from Sloth that made me shake my head. And no…he is not a suspect of mine and I won’t be voting him (aka me).

12. It made sense because I agreed with the reasoning he provided about not lynching Emp if he had managed to make it to D2. I thought he (wicked) did a good job in the post. I agreed with it. Did you not agree with his post?

havingfitz · Post Post #582 (isolation #6) » Thu May 26, 2011 4:18 pm

MoI wrote:
havingfitz wrote:I see little if any Sloth focus on your part on D2 yet despite other suspicions you’ve got material/evidence/ etc. on others, you are fine with pursuing the Sloth slot’s lynch today. That is scummy IMO.

Wait, whut? It’s scummy to for me to suspect you when I feel you are a Werewolf and lynching the Evil Sheep (Hez and DK, IMO) as opposed to a Werewolf isn’t in Town’s best interest?

As to a focus on your slot Day 2 – sorry , I’m allowed to follow my suspicions wherever they lead.

It is not scummy for you to suspect me. It is not scummy for people to change their minds about others as the game progresses. What IS scummy is to line up the next day’s lynch, basically to make a deal, even though you have expressed little suspicion towards that person.

Why do you find my slot scummy MOI? Why have you changed your focus from the 4 or 5 scum you stated MUST be on the Emp mislynch (made when Emp was at L-2)?

MoI wrote:
havingfitz wrote:You do know that people posting more in one thread vs another does not preclude them from being town? You do know that right? If anything I usually think of it as people are bored with the game they are ignoring…and IMO it is easier to be bored when you are town then when you are scum.

I do know it doesn’t preclude them from being Town. However it is OVERWHELMINGLY more likely to come from Scum than Town when said player is under suspicion (which Sloth was from LMP). Spinning it as ‘bored Townie’ is WIFOM.

Unless you have statistics to back up your “OVERWHELMINGLY more likely” comment I suggest you stop with the hyperbole. The way you are “spinning it” is WIFOM as well. That’s why it is null. Also...the only suspicion I can see from LMP on Sloth has to do with his

lurking

actively posting in another game. Well Sloth’s departure from the game came BEFORE LMP’s suspicions were raised...not as a result of it. You are misrepresenting the suspicions on Sloth to make it look like he was avoiding the game based on suspicions. He was not under any suspicions from what I can see...at least not UNTIL after he started to ignore this game.

MoI wrote:I disagree that Sloth wasn’t under suspicion. You ignore the fact that before the shift to CJdrum I had particularly pointed out the Sloth’s behavior was suspect.

Show me the quote. I see where you make a post pre-Sloth AWOL where you claim he [Sloth] would be a scum suspect IF Emp were to flip scum. He did not BTW. And as mentioned above...you have subsequently skipped over the 4 or 5 people on Emp’s L-2 wagon who you were certain must be scum if Emp flipped town...he did BTW.

In response to your numbers –

MoI wrote:1. Yep, you may find it a scum-tell. IMO at worst a Null-Tell since it is in a Townie’s best interest to direct Town in the direction he sees as effective scum-hunting.

And it’s in scum’s best interest to appear townie. Considering the tell is being directed at you, it’s no surprise you consider it null.

MoI wrote:2. If you can show me the scum motivations in the original post please do so. What do scum specifically gain? Curious to see what possible motivation you can come up with other than the ‘you are trying to look Townie’ angle which again we disagree on.

I’m guessing my catch up post had 75-100 lines in it. All made up of posts that caught my attention. Not all that I would consider scum tells. They were a real time play by play of what I was thinking. I was not implying there were scum motivations in your comment in question. I was implying that you had not put a lot of thought in a previous comment by not thinking a subject all the way through. I would not put a vote on someone for that suspicion. I would (and have) stated it is not a major tell. The fact you are choosing to continue defending this minor point is becoming more suspect IMO that the original suspicion.

MoI wrote:3. It wasn’t a random vote. You can disagree with me about whether you think it is nor not but if you do you are wrong. I’m the one who cast the vote and knows my motivations.

If it wasn’t random...then why not give one single hint of rationale as to why you were placing it?

MoI wrote:4. I’d already answer Empking’s questions on multiple occasions throughout Day 1. By the time of the post in question he was again rehashing ground covered by myself and others.

Again..you made no mention of having answered it previously when you told Emp you WEREN’T going to answer him. Not answering questions raises suspicion.

5) I assume my response to five is no longer “incorrect?”

MoI wrote:7. There is a huge world of difference between “Hmmm, I was wrong about Empking I need to re-read” and “Damn, we’re screwed as helpless Town now that the Seer is dead”.

How much difference does it take for it not to be suspicious? Neil’s response was more emphatic and I noted it. Once again...a minor suspicion IMO...but the minors add up.

MoI wrote:9. Then you don’t know what ‘Setting up lynches’ is. Town in a scum rich environment should have multiple suspicions. Setting up lynches is saying “Hez is obv-scum if CJdrum flips Town for x,y,z” before a flip happens.

I didn’t realize I was in the presence of the all knowing mafia adjudicator of everything. You say you aren’t lining up a lynch, I say you are and IMO your comments support that. Since we disagree it’s moot between us and depends on how others see it...if they care. It’s a big tell IMO given the limited attention you had given the Sloth slot the entire game.

MoI wrote:10. It is inconsistent because you are trying to classify CJ’d parting WIFOM as something that you should be suspicious of me for. The only way that you should be suspicous of me for CJ’s statement is if you think we are partners and he was spewing WIFOM trying possibly distance from me with that statement. Yet you clearly think he and I could not be partners. What inside information is he possibly working from to make that post in your scenario? He can’t know my alignment other than that I’m not Evil Sheep.

First off...once again...my comments were made as I progressed through the game and are what my thoughts at that time were. My first comment indicated

doubt

that you and cj were the same alignment (ie you could be a werewolf). Your comments make it seem I was convinced you were not scum. I never indicated that. As for the 2nd comment, I said I was “Not sure what to make of cj's comments” towards you. I still feel that way. Uncertainty is part of the game. Are you saying I should consider you a LOCK to not be a partner of cj? Have you ever bussed as scum?

MoI wrote:11. I’ll cover this later when I break down my ISO of your slot. Suffice it say it is a pretty strong scum tell in my mind when a player replaces in and says, effectively, “The person playing in this slot before was a moron”. It allows the replacing scum to free themselves from reads of the slot already and go in whatever direction of mislynching they wish.

Don’t put words in my mouth. I never said Sloth was a moron. All I did was note two of his posts that I did not care for. Up to that point in the game I thought Sloth had played, albeit sparingly, a decent game. Also...when I commented on those posts I had the benefit of knowing Emp’s imminent flip and therefore how accurate Sloth’s suspicions were. The second post I just did not agree with.

MoI wrote:12. No, I don’t agree. It’s pointless ‘Sky is Falling’ material. After the lynch for the day we had two living werewolves in 11 living players. Empking had at absolute worst a 2/10 (20%) chance of randomly scanning a Werewolf. It’s not a good risk in a mutli-scum game (where there is another faction with strong motivation to hunt you down) to risk losing 50% of your team to a scan result. Even taking that risk you allow the Seer a chance to get a clear on someone as Werewolf that may be important down the line. Again, as I properly predicted Empking died.

So you are saying you don’t agree with logic (leaving Emp alive N1) which if adopted by the wolves would have been a bad wolf move to make. Why not?

Why not agree with something that if the wolves had bought it...could have benefitted town?

Instead you flaunt your mafia IQ by stating the obvious and adding the point that you predicted Emp would die. Other than stroking your own ego what purpose does your “once again, stating the obvious” successful prediction matter?

havingfitz · Post Post #585 (isolation #7) » Fri May 27, 2011 7:22 am

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
DK wrote:Unvote
Vote Regfan

obvscum obv

We lynch Regfan today, results are when he flips. Can't explain, but my gut is telling me that he is more of a threat than Neil.

This post baffles my mind. DK has spent 2 days yelling that Neil was scum. At the point he made this post Neil had 3 votes (with his) and Reg had none. I can’t fathom why any alignment would leap off the leading wagon he had been clamouring for to vote someone else on ‘gut’.

I noticed and agree with this suspicion.

MoI wrote:
Havingfitz wrote:Why do you find my slot scummy MOI? Why have you changed your focus from the 4 or 5 scum you stated MUST be on the Emp mislynch (made when Emp was at L-2)?

At a gut level I suspect your slot for very low performance levels Day 1 and Day 2, Sloth’s being active in other games while avoiding this one (again, a scum-tell to me as I demonstrated with CJDrum), and LMP’s death after his strong suspicion of your slot.

Like I’ve said…I have examples where someone ignoring one thread while being active in another was a town. In fact…I think most of the times I have encountered this situation it HAS been town.

MoI wrote:
What focus are you talking about? I’ve never believed that 4 to 5 scum were on Empking’s L-1 wagon.
My whole commentary there was to demonstrate that his ‘quick-hammer’ fear was unfounded since Empking himself thought most or all of the scum were on his wagon. Was there scum on the wagon besides CJDrum? I think so since I have Hez and DK slotted as Evil Sheep. That said I can't see a higher concentration than that and this is making me rethink CJ - Hez - DK as Evil Sheep since I can't believe all three would crowd on the wagon, especially in slots 3 4 and 5. Your slot's hop onto the 6th vote also increase my thoughts you may be Werewolf, but it also makes me fairly confident you aren't scum with Neil.

I bolded the part above. It appears to be a direct contradiction to your comments in post 319:

MoI wrote:If Empking is Town then there MUST be a significant amount of the 5 scum on his wagon. At least 4. Otherwise the push to lynch him from both scum factions would have come by now.

BTW...I stated you made these comments when Emp was at L-2.

MoI wrote:
Havingfitz wrote:Unless you have statistics to back up your “OVERWHELMINGLY more likely” comment I suggest you stop with the hyperbole. The way you are “spinning it” is WIFOM as well. That’s why it is null.

It think the proper response is this is best summarized as the following –

havingfitz wrote:Considering the tell is being directed at you, it’s no surprise you consider it null.

As you’ve stated yourself – it is a strong personal tell that I have. I don’t need a full on Hoopla statistical analysis to run with it. You are doing the same with your personal tells.

I would argue that you DO need statistical analysis when making over the top assertions to support your suspicions on someone.

MoI wrote:
Havingfitz wrote:Show me the quote.

Here you go –

ISO 46 wrote:In looking at ISOs Cjdrum and Sloth’s votes for Emp look the worst.

ISO 49 wrote:I’ve also reviewed Sloth’s posting history. He has 20 posts on site since the thread opened on Friday. Not a single one in this game.

Hez on the other hand hasn’t made a post on sight since he last posted here.

One of these behaviors is highly suspect compared to the other. And may earn my vote.

I think both those quotes show considerable interest in your slot as scum. If anything you earned a repreive via CJ's more egregious play.

Anyone who elects to bail on a game based on your ISO 46 above has no business playing mafia. If you really think your ISO 46 scared Sloth away I can only shake my head in disbelief. Your comment is hardly a damning indictment on Sloth. Your ISO 49 came AFTER Sloth has went AWOL. You can not accuse someone of being AWOL for something you say is a RESULT of him going AWOL. You are really reaching with the (and I paraphrase) “Sloth bailed because he was under so much pressure” theory.

MoI wrote:
havingfitz wrote: And it’s in scum’s best interest to appear townie. Considering the tell is being directed at you, it’s no surprise you consider it null.

And it’s in Town’s best interest to appear Townie also. Unless you are going to say Scum are more likely to appear Town than Town is it’s a Null tell at worst.

Whatever. I have found what I perceive as overt helpfulness to be suspicious in the past and been burned for not maintaining those suspicions.

MoI wrote:
Havingfitz wrote:I’m guessing my catch up post had 75-100 lines in it. All made up of posts that caught my attention. Not all that I would consider scum tells. They were a real time play by play of what I was thinking. I was not implying there were scum motivations in your comment in question. I was implying that you had not put a lot of thought in a previous comment by not thinking a subject all the way through. I would not put a vote on someone for that suspicion. I would (and have) stated it is not a major tell. The fact you are choosing to continue defending this minor point is becoming more suspect IMO that the original suspicion.

So you made a long post that was peppered with comments that weren’t scummy but simply observations? Ok, why fluff the length of your replace in post that way? You presented that along with your ‘scum reads’ (which you also distanced yourself from, as others have noted) as the supporting case. If you want to try to say questioning you about the materials in your Wall that aren’t scum-tells is scummy then have at it.

It’s how I catch up in long games. You don’t have to like it. I give my thoughts on posts that catch my attention. I don’t see it as fluff…I see it as letting the other players know where my head is and to use as a baseline for subsequent suspicions. You asking about my comments is not scummy. You carrying on in defense of what I said was not a major issue IMO is suspicious.

MoI wrote:
havingfitz wrote:If it wasn’t random...then why not give one single hint of rationale as to why you were placing it?

Because to me it was clear my motivation in context of the pre-game talk.

Question
– do you always suspect players who don’t give concrete reasons with votes? Are people like Faraday who never do automatically scummy to you for their playstyle?

You “Noted” the fact I found your unwillingness to answer Emp’s question to be scummy. I was going off your own words when I made that comment. Why is my suspicion worth noting when is it as a result of your direct comment to the affect that you were not going to answer his question? Ridiculous. And yes…when people vote someone out of the blue without any reasoning (or without reasons I can perceive in the context of other posts/conversations) I find it suspicious. I just finished a game with Faraday where I attacked him for this very reason, ended up backing off, and lost to Faraday scum. So that is two personal tells I have fell victim to that you are waving off.

MoI wrote:
havingfitz wrote:How much difference does it take for it not to be suspicious? Neil’s response was more emphatic and I noted it. Once again...a minor suspicion IMO...but the minors add up.

1. CJ’s response was the most emphatic. Did you note it? I don't remember.
2. If you can’t see the difference explaining it to you again isn’t going to help. I’ve explained the classic scum-tell of “Oh we are screwed without the Seer” and how it is completely different from admitting my Empking read was wrong.

If you can’t see where my suspicion is coming from explaining it to you again isn’t going to help.

MoI wrote:
havingfitz wrote:I didn’t realize I was in the presence of the all knowing mafia adjudicator of everything. You say you aren’t lining up a lynch, I say you are and IMO your comments support that. Since we disagree it’s moot between us and depends on how others see it...if they care. It’s a big tell IMO given the limited attention you had given the Sloth slot the entire game.

Your dismissive sarcasm aside the volume of my posting with active and scummy players is always going to be higher compared to a low content producing active lurker like Sloth. Take that as a scum-tell if you wish.

IMO you're sidestepping the fact that you were lining up the next day’s lynch. Here is a reminder:

MoI ISO 50 to LMP wrote:Regardless I’ll make you a deal – support the CJ wagon today and I’ll back you on Sloth tomorrow. Sound good?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MoI wrote:
havingfitz wrote:First off...once again...my comments were made as I progressed through the game and are what my thoughts at that time were. My first comment indicated doubt that you and cj were the same alignment (ie you could be a werewolf). Your comments make it seem I was convinced you were not scum. I never indicated that. As for the 2nd comment, I said I was “Not sure what to make of cj's comments” towards you. I still feel that way. Uncertainty is part of the game. Are you saying I should consider you a LOCK to not be a partner of cj? Have you ever bussed as scum?

So your stance is you made a bunch of observations and don’t necessarily have to stick with them because they were “stream of conciouisness”?

If that’s the case I want a concrete list of reason you suspect me … similar to the case you’ve been asking me to provide on you. Because you’ve made it clear that anything you said in your catch-up may or may not be valid depending on your mood at the time.

Suspicions change. Over the course of a two full days catch up….suspicions or comments made early in the read may very well change later in the read through. Why is that so hard to comprehend? I mentioned four suspects…why do I have to build a case on you for an initial gut suspicion? The reason I’ve been asking for a case from you is because you are voting me. Don’t worry…if/when I eventually put a vote down on you (or any of my suspects) I promise it will come with my reasons. Something you failed to do with your vote on Emp and with your vote on me today.

MoI wrote:
havingfitz wrote:Don’t put words in my mouth. I never said Sloth was a moron. All I did was note two of his posts that I did not care for. Up to that point in the game I thought Sloth had played, albeit sparingly, a decent game. Also...when I commented on those posts I had the benefit of knowing Emp’s imminent flip and therefore how accurate Sloth’s suspicions were. The second post I just did not agree with.

Of course you didn’t say those words directly. I’m pointing out that behavior such as that is a strong scum-tell for replacements. I’ve done it myself. So throwing in those comments about Sloth didn’t serve a Pro-Town purpose other than to distance yourself form the predecessor. Town doesn’t actively do that, IMO.

I can’t distance myself from Sloth because I took over his role. That does not mean I have to agree with or like everything he posted. And if I am giving my honest assessment of things everyone said during my catchup I feel it would be dishonest to skip over things from my predecessor that caught my attention.

MoI wrote:
havingfitz wrote:So you are saying you don’t agree with logic (leaving Emp alive N1) which if adopted by the wolves would have been a bad wolf move to make. Why not?
Why not agree with something that if the wolves had bought it...could have benefitted town?
Instead you flaunt your mafia IQ by stating the obvious and adding the point that you predicted Emp would die. Other than stroking your own ego what purpose does your “once again, stating the obvious” successful prediction matter?

I’ve bolded the part you state here as a knock on me that explains why it wasn’t going to happen and was pointless "Pro Townie" posturing.

Scum aren’t in the habit of doing things that are more beneficial to Town than themselves on a lark just because someone makes a post. That’s Mafia 101. You can say it is ‘flaunting my Mafia IQ’ if you wish … it is just common sense. Even the worst scum I’ve ever seen (Razorback) would not be foolish enough to risk being scanned just to WIFOM it up.

The only reason the Day 1 claimed Seer lives til morning is because he was fake-claiming Wolf.

First off…I bolded the comments in my quote. Are you even paying attention to what you write? Your faux-bolding aside, I realize it would not make sense for the wolves to leave an actual seer alive. But why not agree with the logic that IF Emp HAD made it to D2…continuing to not vote him would be the best move for town? And actually…wicked was really just advocating not making the confirmed position known that IF Emp was still here D2…that he would be the guaranteed lynch. His [wicked’s] point was that the wolves could benefit from such an assertion by taking that 80% chance of a failed Seer inspection could allow them to kill someone other than the seer and enable them to ride out a D2 mislynch on Emp courtesy of town. And not wasting their NK. I still do not see how this is bad logic. Town does not need to make their intentions absolutely clear to scum.

MoI wrote:
Finally fitz - why are you not voting?
The day is well underway. I don't see why you haven't committed your vote to one of your suspects.

I have four suspects and have not had a lot of time to post/review/build my cases. The time I have had to post in here has been tied up in this exchange with you. I should be able to get my vote down by tomorrow.

havingfitz · Post Post #597 (isolation #8) » Sun May 29, 2011 3:53 pm

Umbrage wrote:
I'm back home, so prodding
HezLucky for the second time and
havingfitz for the first time.

My bad for not noting the 48 hour deadline.

48 hour deadlines are BS.

48 hour deadlines on a HOLIDAY weekend are especially BS.

Why doesn't Regfan get a prod?

When I sent the prods, he was still an hour or two short. I'll prod him tomorrow, right now I need sleep...

That should cover it.

havingfitz · Post Post #600 (isolation #9) » Sun May 29, 2011 6:30 pm

OK...this is a VCA that builds on my gut feel following my earlier catchup post. The vote counts below have confirmed town (and myself...my VCA...my POV) as bold green. Confirmed scum as bold red. People I consider town (ATM) are normal green and those I suspect are in normal red. Time of posts is EST.

Day 1

Umbrage Post #11 » Fri Apr 29, 2011 2:51 pm

Empking

(3) -

MagnaofIllusion

,

neil1113

,

DeityKabuto

(3) -

HezLucky

,

Sloth

,

Caboose

Twistedspoon

(3) –

Regfan

,

zMuffinMan

,

Wickedestjr

HezLucky

(1) -

Twistedspoon

neil1113

(1) -

Empking

Not Voting:

cjdrum

.

This is one of the earlier vote counts. In it we have three wagons tied at 3. Two of these wagons are on confirmed town (Emp and Twisted) so I believe it is a safe assumption to hypothsize there are scum on both the town wagons. cj is not voting at this time which puts more emphasis on the players who are on the town wagons.

Umbrage Post #17 » Wed May 04, 2011 11:26 am

Empking

(5) -

MagnaofIllusion

,

neil1113

,

DeityKabuto

,

cjdrum

,

HezLucky

Twistedspoon

(3) -

zMuffinMan

,

Wickedestjr

,

Caboose

DeityKabuto

(2) -

Sloth

,

Twistedspoon

neil1113

(2) -

Regfan

,

Empking

Here the Emp wagon has been joined by confirmed scum cj and my town read Hez (who leaves the DK wagon). Of my town reads...Hez is the one I have the least confidence in. ATT however he is firmly entrenched in 5th place on my suspect list.

Umbrage Post #18 » Fri May 06, 2011 10:49 am

Empking

(5) -

MagnaofIllusion

,

neil1113

,

DeityKabuto

,

cjdrum

,

HezLucky

Twistedspoon

(3) -

zMuffinMan

,

Wickedestjr

,

Caboose

DeityKabuto

(2) -

Sloth

,

Twistedspoon

neil1113

(2) -

Regfan

,

Empking

The wagons haven’t changed for a few days at this point. This was the vote count status when Magna stated that he thought 4 of the 5 scum would be on the Emp wagon if Emp was town. Well....Emp was town. Assuming Magna is not confessing his alignment I believe he is insinutating that EVERYONE on the Emp wagon aside from him is scum. If Magna believes everyone on the Emp wagon (aside from him is scum)..that would mean he only thinks one of the people off the Emp wagon are scum. Based on the fact he went from Emp to Twisted...I deduce he has town reads on zMM, Wicked, Caboose, Sloth and Regfan.

Umbrage Post #21 » Mon May 09, 2011 11:58 am

Twistedspoon

(7) -

zMuffinMan

,

Wickedestjr

,

Caboose

,

Sloth

,

MagnaofIllusion

,

Regfan

,

DeityKabuto

(HAMMER!)

Empking

(1) -

cjdrum

DeityKabuto

(1) -

Twistedspoon

neil1113

(1) -

Empking

HezLucky

(1) -

neil1113

MagnaofIllusion

(1) –

HezLucky

This is the last votecount of Day 1. I typically would be surprised if a majority of a scum team were on a Day 1 lynch. The fact that there are two scum teams makes this harder to figure out (for me at least) so I don’t know what the odds say. With scum consisting of teams of 2 wolves and 3 mafia, I do not think it is unreasonable to assume there are at least 1 wolf and 2 mafia on the mislynch. This is supported by the fact confirmed scum cj was not on the mislynch. Of the four other players not on the Twisted mislynch, there are confirmed town Emp & Twisted. This leaves neil and Hez as potential scum NOT on the mislynch.

Day 2

Umbrage Post #28 » Wed May 18, 2011 4:02 pm
Vote Count:

HezLucky

(2) -

zMuffinMan

,

Regfan

Sloth

(2) -

LynchMePls

,

cjdrum

DeityKabuto

(1) -

neil1113

MagnaofIllusion

(1) -

HezLucky

neil1113

(1) -

DeityKabuto

cjdrum

(2) -

Wickedestjr

,

MagnaofIllusion

Not Voting:

Sloth

.

This is the 4th votecount of Day 2. Wicked is the first to vote cj and followed shortly by Magna who has been on DK with neil most of Day 2. I need to look over what precipitated the Magna vote on DK and his change to cj. Also of note, Sloth has confirmed town (LMP) and scum (cj) on his wagon.

Umbrage Post #29 » Fri May 20, 2011 6:25 pm
Vote Count:

cjdrum

(5) -

MagnaofIllusion

,

Wickedestjr

,

DeityKabuto

,

LynchMePls

,

neil1113

(One vote away from lynch!)

HezLucky

(2) -

zMuffinMan

,

Regfan

Sloth

(1) -

cjdrum

zMuffinMan

(1) -

HezLucky

Not Voting:

Sloth

.

This is the votecount prior to cj’s self hammer. I think it’s a safe bet to assume that one or both wolves are one this wagon (as from their POV they are either getting scum or a mislynch out of a cj lynch) and given cj’s questionable play...I think the possibility exists that there is at least one mafia partner bussing him.

Day 3

Despite early D2 suspicions towards towards DK, Magna has decided I am the best choice to vote on Day 3. Since everyone should agree that it is in town’s (and mafia’s) best interest to aim for werewolves, I would like to hear Magna’s basis of voting me and how he has determined that I am a wolf (assuming that he does think that). I also find it interesting that DK...who suspected neil for most of Day 2 (prior to voting cj) and most of Day 3, has moved his vote to Regfan (??) who coincidentally has had his vote on neil all of Day 3 (as well as for much of Day 1).

In summary, I think the VCA above supports scum among Magna, DK, neil, and zMM. I think there is a high likelihood the werewolves are among Magna, DK, and neil…while I believe zMM is mafia. The day three activity has me thinking there is a link between DK and neil (they both voted each other Day 2 but hopped off to lynch cj) There has also been quite a lot of discussion/suspicion from neil pointed at DK, throughout the game but especially on Day 3 (though no vote). I also found neil’s post 530 to be very interesting:

neil1113 wrote:ISOing CJ was to no avail, as my suspicions brought me with 4 possible suspects of his partners (which obviously is wrong, as there can only be 2 partners of his.) They are:

Hez,
Deity
, Sloth, and
DK
.

However, I'm not so much concerned with trying to find his partners, as I am trying to find the werewolves. Considering Mafia are just useless, and it's the Wolves that do the killing, it'd be nice to try and lynch one of them. Considering the circumstances, I'll eliminate VI
Deity
, and easy wagon'd Sloth from my main suspects and focus in on Hez and
DK
. I'll be ISOing each of them individually, and posting what I find (or don't find) in these ISO's.

He repeatedly lists DK twice (see my bolding in the quote above) among his “4 possible suspects.” I think neil has DK a bit too much on the mind. I think they are the same alignment and I think that alignment is wolf. This would leave Magna as possible mafia bussing and zMM as his partner.

Since the target is wolves, my vote goes to…

VOTE: DeityKabuto

havingfitz · Post Post #601 (isolation #10) » Sun May 29, 2011 6:31 pm

EBWOP: This would leave Magna as possible mafia bussing

cj

and zMM as his partner.

havingfitz · Post Post #603 (isolation #11) » Sun May 29, 2011 6:48 pm

Regfan wrote:4. PoE, I have quite solid town-reads on Wicked/MoI and
I don't see Cjdrum being the last townie
.

Bold is mine. What?

havingfitz · Post Post #604 (isolation #12) » Sun May 29, 2011 6:52 pm

My town reads are mostly POE coupled with the fact everyone can't be scum. Think of it as a top to bottom scumlist with Hez, you and Wicked (not necessarily in that order) at the bottom of my list, ie most town. And I don't make a habit of justifying town reads but it does fit into my assessments in my VCA.

havingfitz · Post Post #608 (isolation #13) » Mon May 30, 2011 4:09 am

Regfan wrote:
havingfitz wrote:
Regfan wrote:4. PoE, I have quite solid town-reads on Wicked/MoI and
I don't see Cjdrum being the last townie
.

Bold is mine. What?

It's meant to read Neil, not Cjdrum should be obvious in the context it's in.

havingfitz wrote:My town reads are mostly POE coupled with the fact everyone can't be scum. Think of it as a top to bottom scumlist with Hez, you and Wicked (not necessarily in that order) at the bottom of my list, ie most town. And I don't make a habit of justifying town reads but it does fit into my assessments in my VCA.

So your town-reads are based on your scum-reads and you're using your PoE town-reads to reassure yourself of your scum reads through your VCA? You're essentially using circular reasoning to explain and maintain your reads.

Well..the CJ thing could be a freudian slip of some kind and I did not want to assume you thought neil was town (since he is someone I suspect).

You don't have to accept my VCA thoughts if you don't want. Tell me this...what are your reads on Hez, Wicked, and yourself? If at least two of them are town reads...then you are basically in agreemenet with me...if all three of them are town or leaning town, then WTH are you busting my balls for? Was there anything in my post 610 that you did agree with or that might have been made apparent to you? Even something that might have eluded me?

havingfitz · Post Post #609 (isolation #14) » Mon May 30, 2011 4:20 am

Hez, FYI...I'm naturally leery of those who agree with me too much and I'm not confident enough in my abilities to assume I have pegged the last 4 scum. It justs makes sense IMO at the moment. I can't see DK being town but if he did flip that way (by some miracle), and coupled with the next NK, then I would have to look things over again....and you would move up into contention

havingfitz · Post Post #619 (isolation #15) » Mon May 30, 2011 4:05 pm

@DK...why did you "Claim:"? <headshake>

There are no town PR's remaining so you are either scum or town. Unless you were considering claiming one of the scum roles a Vanilla town claim is silly, unnecessary, and odd.

@zMM...the votecount wasn't assessed TO support my "presupposed conclusions", the assessment of the votecount DOES support my "presupposed conclusions."
What are your thoughts on the votecount as illustrated in post 601? Take away the unconfirmed red and greens I have coded red or green based on my "presupposed conclusions" and give me your take.

Two townies died before Day 2 began. The only people on BOTH of their wagons on D1 were Magna and DK. I do not think that can be chalked up completely to bad-luck town (re: Magna and DK's votes). Color coding aside I think the only votecount I reached on was perhaps the Twisted hammer. Since I am hypothesizing that there were only 3 scum on a 7 player mislynch. But Caboose (aka LMP) is confirmed town, fmpov I know I am town, and I have strong town reads on wicked and Regfan so even the Twisted votecount assessment is pretty solid IMO. For the most part I think the other votecounts I note are telling regardless of my specific POV.

And yes zMM...right now you are in my top four based on opinion following my catchup combined with PoE (not from my VCA but from considering my town reads as well). Though you as mafia (or evil sheep) does also fit well in the VCA with my suspicions of you.

@Wicked - The comments in line 263 were my summary of Magna's post 263. I was not calling DK a policy lynch, Magna was.
1. I didn't think it needed comment. Looking back on it I don't see the posts you compare being equal. DK appears to be leading town away from looking for scum on a cj wagon while I am essentially saying that I could be wrong in my top four scum suspects. Which I think is a perfectly normal rationale for anyone who does not possess ESP or a cheat sheet from the mod.
2. I don't know. I haven't considered whether it is in their best interests to find mafia or not. I hope they pursue and hit mafia.

havingfitz · Post Post #620 (isolation #16) » Mon May 30, 2011 4:06 pm

Hez...do you have any werewolf reads? Or more specifically, do you think Magna is a wolf?

havingfitz · Post Post #621 (isolation #17) » Mon May 30, 2011 4:09 pm

At Hez...I just noticed you said you thought Magna had the ability to kill so you answered my question. I agree he is probably scum but I have a hard time believing he is a wolf. Why do you think he is?

havingfitz · Post Post #623 (isolation #18) » Mon May 30, 2011 4:45 pm

zMM...don't lead me on pointless goose chases. I have given my opinion and tried to back it up. I am not going to try and disprove my opinion or weaken it by coming up with all the scenarios it may not support. If you want to convince us Regfan is mafia or wicked is a wolf, go for it. I look forward to seeing your effort.

What are your thoughts on Hez's suspicions of you?

@Wicked...I overlooked your zMM question. I think he is most likely mafia with Magna. As I would prefer to see a wolf as today's lynch, I will not be focussing strongly on him today.

havingfitz · Post Post #647 (isolation #19) » Tue May 31, 2011 4:37 pm

Not sure how much posting I'll get to tonight. The Magna post 633 alone will take forever to reply to. WTF with all the walls.....? As for your [Magna] pathetic attempt to coerce me into hammering neil, I like my read on DK more than I do neil. Plus neil's last post had a town feel to it that has me questioning my view on him. No need to rush the day's end and I still want to look things over (aside from the VCA). neil may still get my vote but it won't be until I'm ready...not when Magna or DK are.

havingfitz · Post Post #648 (isolation #20) » Tue May 31, 2011 4:47 pm

OK...another quick look at neil's post and maybe it's not that townish. Regardless of neil's alignment I'm not too worried about him self hammering as I doubt a werewolf would self hammer (even with two in the game) and I doubt scum would as well to bring their total to one. I still want to catch up and make a few replies before I consider ending the day.

havingfitz · Post Post #656 (isolation #21) » Wed Jun 01, 2011 6:53 am

Bit of a catchup...

zMuffinMan wrote:
1)
Goose chase? I'm saying your entire VCA is flawed because you are using it to support your conclusions when they would support almost any conclusions could you think of.
2)
I want you to show me how your VCA supports your conclusions but doesn't support the conclusion that, say, Regfan is mafia. I'm not saying Regfan is mafia.
3)
I'm just asking you to tell me how your VCA really supports anything you've said.

1) It DOES support my conclusions. If my VCA screamed something different to my stated scum reads I would let it. The goose chase is you asking me to go figure out what combinations my VCA doesn't support. With no rock solid proof of anyone's alignment there could be any number of combinations the VCA does or doesn't support. I've given my assessment...I wish others would derive/provide their thoughts on the VCs as well. As I mentioned earlier...even if I didn't use the colors based on my reads on living players I would still have the bulk of my reads. The only reads I would possibly change would be swapping my weakest scum read (you/zMM) and my weakest town read (Hez) within my top 4 suspects.

2) Looking back over my VCA...I could see where a case could be made that Regfan is mafia.

3) That's just it, the VCA DOES support what I've said...the problem is, people are discrediting my VCA because I've added my pre-conceived opinions into the VCA...and therefore they don't care/like/accept the fact that the VCA IS supporting those earlier opinions.

zMuffinMan wrote:Re: the VCA, to put it simply, your VCA doesn't "support" your suspicions, it just makes sense if you're right. And it would make sense with almost any other suspicions you have.

I disagree. I think it does support my suspicions. Yes...it could support other views. I do not think it is of value only if I am right (thought that would help) I think there are things that can be derived regardless of my opinion. One being the fact that Magna and DK were the only players on the Emp and Twisted wagons when they were at their peaks. Also...could you respond to this,

havingfitz wrote: @zMM...<snip> What are your thoughts on the votecount as illustrated in post 601? Take away the unconfirmed red and greens I have coded red or green based on my "presupposed conclusions" and give me your take.

Regfan wrote:
HavingFitz wrote: You don't have to accept my VCA thoughts if you don't want. Tell me this...what are your reads on Hez, Wicked, and yourself? If at least two of them are town reads...then you are basically in agreemenet with me...if all three of them are town or leaning town, then WTH are you busting my balls for? Was there anything in my post 610 that you did agree with or that might have been made apparent to you? Even something that might have eluded me?

I have a strong town-read on Wicked, leaning scum on Hez and what's the point of asking me for my read on myself? #610 was meaningless, it really was it's attempting to validify your FoS's by showing how your PoE works.

I'll make it clearer. You're saying, I have town-reads on Wicked, Hez and Regfan. Hmm. I'll put them in the VCA. Muffin, Magna, DK and Neil came out mafia.
See, you're really not showing us your actual reasoning behind your town-reads, and that's what you need to do.

My point was that you seem to be discrediting my VCA based the fact it incorporates my pre-VCA reads (which I can totally understand)...but you agree with 2/3rds of my town reads (or 1/2 if we take out the FMPOV confirmed town status). Do you see any scum indicators (ie top suspects) in the votecounts listed? Also, I don't usually give my town reads. I especially don't make a habit of making town cases for them. I focus on finding scum. The town read/view I have towards players is more a case of others being more suspect. And with only eight players remaining...giving my top four scum reads and excluding myself sort of explicitly reveals who my town reads are. The only way I would give reasoning on a town read was if it was a rock solid town tell/indicator.

Regfan wrote:
Wickedestjr wrote: So, just to be clear, you want to know my town reads so we can protect them from getting lynched?

Right now it's much easier to scumhunt via using PoE and explaining your town-reads, therefore understanding what your town-reads are better helps me understand who you suspect.

As mentioned above...I do not agree with focussing on town reads. It just helps those who have NK ability (in our case wolves) keep players who are more suspect and eliminate those who most players might write off as town.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:Havingfitz’s reaction to the prod in 597 is suspect.

1. How are 48 hour deadlines bad?
2. Why didn’t you V/LA (as many of us did) for the holiday weekend?
3. Resorting to the “Why doesn’t X also get a prod” response?

I agree with Muffin and Regfan regarding having’s ‘VC Analysis’ at 600. It’s not an actual VC analysis. An actual VC analysis uses all vote-counts and draws conclusions
FROM
the voting patterns. Having has just shoe-horned his ‘reads’ into a handful of VC’s to support them.

Why is it suspect? What would the scum motivation behind it be? My personal opinion is that 48 hour deadlines are too short. I did not realize we had a 48 hr deadline in here. Only one or two of you (not many) did a v/LA. With the 72 hours I thought I had I was not worried about getting a prod. I was working on my VCA at the time I got the prod so that was why I was miffed to receive it. Is your #3 some sort of common tell? You are seriously reaching. If I'm getting prodded damn straight I want others to get their's too.

Wickedestjr wrote:
havingfitz wrote:@Wicked -
3.
The comments in line 263 were my summary of Magna's post 263. I was not calling DK a policy lynch, Magna was.
1. I didn't think it needed comment. Looking back on it I don't see the posts you compare being equal. DK appears to be leading town away from looking for scum on a cj wagon while I am essentially saying that I could be wrong in my top four scum suspects. Which I think is a perfectly normal rationale for anyone who does not possess ESP or a cheat sheet from the mod.
2. I don't know. I haven't considered whether it is in their best interests to find mafia or not. I hope they pursue and hit mafia.

1. What did you mean when you said 'way to commit', then?
2. -
3. I understand that. I still think it seems odd how you would discredit MoI's suspicion of DK despite you voting/suspecting him.

1. It's what came to my mind when I read that post. I was not trying to prove a math theorem when I made the comment. I found it slightly suspect for what I stated above.
2. -
3. Magna being ok with a DK lynch (iirc) but stating that it felt like a policy lynch felt like he was leaving his options open whether he decided to vote DK or not. I find that suspect. The fact I suspect DK has nothing to do with my suspicions towards Magna (in this case or in geeneral), especially with there being two scum factions in the game. They could both be scum but still suspect each other, either as opposing scum (as I suspect) or with very slight bussing.

Wickedestjr wrote:Also, havingfitz, why do you think DK and neil are werewolves and not mafia?

The VCA.

I think that catches me up other than Magna's posts directed at me.

havingfitz · Post Post #669 (isolation #22) » Wed Jun 01, 2011 11:49 am

Is he dead in that game too?

havingfitz · Post Post #673 (isolation #23) » Wed Jun 01, 2011 5:56 pm

I haven't had a chance yet to pour over Magna's posts directed at me or his ACTUAL VCA. It will have to wait until tomorrow.

havingfitz · Post Post #695 (isolation #24) » Thu Jun 02, 2011 8:00 pm

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Hez wrote:Regfan's aggressive pushing of havingfitz is noted. Havingfitz's townreads are very, very solid. Don't lose the game for everyone, regfan.

1. Appealing to Fear. Scumtastic.
2. Buddying to havingfitz noted.
3. Underlying assumption that Reg if Town from Hez noted.

I agree with all the points above.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Having wrote:Like I’ve said…I have examples where someone ignoring one thread while being active in another was a town. In fact…I think most of the times I have encountered this situation it HAS been town.

And I have examples of Scum doing it FAR more than Town. I find it a strong scum-tell personally.

FAR more…wow…that’s impressive. I have a hard enough time keeping up in the games I’m playing so I’ll pass on dragging this point out any further. That plus I don’t think it proves anything to drag out as it only takes one case of it not being the case…which I have seen more than once.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Having wrote:I would argue that you DO need statistical analysis when making over the top assertions to support your suspicions on someone.

Well where is the strong statistical analysis support for all your ‘strong’ personal tells then? Those are just as ‘over the top’ as anything I’ve said.

I don’t need strong statistical support for saying I’ve seen something occur before. I do think quantifying a statement with “OVERWHELMING” like you have does deserve proof. It’s just exaggeration without it.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Having wrote:Anyone who elects to bail on a game based on your ISO 46 above has no business playing mafia. If you really think your ISO 46 scared Sloth away I can only shake my head in disbelief. Your comment is hardly a damning indictment on Sloth.
Your ISO 49 came AFTER Sloth has went AWOL.
You can not accuse someone of being AWOL for something you say is a RESULT of him going AWOL. You are really reaching with the (and I paraphrase) “Sloth bailed because he was under so much pressure” theory.

The bolded is an ABSOLUTE LIE!

Sloth requested replacement at post 496. My ISO 49 came at post 444. This is before his request for replacement.

It’s not a lie. Exaggeration again by you. And I like how you call it a lie and then proceed to prove that you suspected him before he left. Why would you consider Sloth’s post 496 as his going AWOL? It was his stretch of not posting in here prior to requesting replacement that constitutes his AWOL and which started your suspicion of him. His last post prior to requesting replacement was Post 416. You start calling him out on his absence in Post 473. THIS equates to you putting pressure on Sloth for not posting in the game. He was not avoiding the game BECAUSE of pressure…the pressure was coming AFTER he stopped posting. I do not see any suspicions of Sloth on your part prior to Post 473 other than to indicate (in Post 319) Sloth, along with confirmed town Caboose and probtown Wicked, would most likely be scum IF Emp flipped scum. Way to MISREP a situation.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:I’ve never asserted that I ‘caused’ Sloth to not post in thread and then replace out. You are fabricating that in an attempt to straw-man my position. He was under suspicion by more than just me.

Fact – Sloth had some suspicion in this game Day 2.
Fact – Sloth actively posted in other threads while avoiding this thread and eventually replaced out while staying active in other threads.

I never said you ‘caused’ Sloth to not post and then replace out. MISREP. Anyone interested in this misrep by you can read my Post 582 for the truth. And here are some of your comments regarding Sloth suspicion…

MagnaofIllusion Post 556 regarding why Sloth was considered suspicious wrote:The suspicion isn’t that he was lurking. Let’s be clear. It’s that he was actively posting in other games while not posting here.

MagnaofIllusion Post 570 regarding why Sloth might not be posting in this game wrote:I do know it doesn’t preclude them from being Town.
However it is OVERWHELMINGLY more likely to come from Scum than Town when said player is under suspicion (which Sloth was from LMP).
Spinning it as ‘bored Townie’ is WIFOM.

I disagree that Sloth wasn’t under suspicion. You ignore the fact that before the shift to CJdrum I had particularly pointed out the Sloth’s behavior was suspect.

As for your Facts…the first one is weak and applies mostly to suspicions raised AFTER Sloth’s last post before asking to replace out. As for your second Fact…it is true. So? We have established that both town and scum are likely to do this. And you say 'avoid'...I say 'ignored.' They have different connotations with you choosing the more suspect choice of words.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Having wrote:And yes…when people vote someone out of the blue without any reasoning (or without reasons I can perceive in the context of other posts/conversations) I find it suspicious. I just finished a game with Faraday where I attacked him for this very reason, ended up backing off, and lost to Faraday scum. So that is two personal tells I have fell victim to that you are waving off.

So you significant personal tell is based of a single game? Hardly a statistically valid tell then. Have you ever played with Faraday as Town?

You seem more than happy to wave off my ‘personal tells’ as Null. Why shouldn’t I be able to do the same with yours?

MISREP! I did not call it a significant tell. Referencing specific examples do not require statistics. Saying something OVERWHELMINGLY indicates something (ie scum alignment) does. Got it?

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Having wrote:IMO you're sidestepping the fact that you were lining up the next day’s lynch. Here is a reminder:

Actually I’m directly telling you that’s not lining up lynches and you have no idea what you are talking about. Vastly different than sidestepping.

OK…you and I will have to disagree. I’m directly telling you you did line up the next day’s lynch. I provided the quote where you agree to lynch Sloth after cj gets lynched.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Having wrote:Suspicions change. Over the course of a two full days catch up….suspicions or comments made early in the read may very well change later in the read through. Why is that so hard to comprehend? I mentioned four suspects…why do I have to build a case on you for an initial gut suspicion?

1. Your presentation was hardly a little ‘gut suspicion’ post. You presented it as a very comprehensive look at the game with comments on a number of things you found suspicious.
2.
INCONSISTENCY DETECTED
!!! You’ve been hammering (falsely, I might add) about my ‘sudden’ suspicion and vote for you yet you are trying to use the ‘suspicions change’ defense yourself.

1. We’re like on the 3rd or 4th iteration of this debate. What point are you trying to prove here? If this is a point you feel is worth continuing with, please detail where my inconsistency is. I assume you think I made a statement or sentiment towards you (?) and have changed my mind? Please detail it.
2. No inconsistency here…I find it suspicious that you suspected DK so much Day 2 and are now focusing (or at least were when you voted me) on my slot for lesser or invalid reasons.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Having wrote:I can’t distance myself from Sloth because I took over his role.

Actually you absolutely can. As I’ve said it is a pretty common scum tactic to use. Replacements always have their own point of view but scum have more motivation to effectively say “Hey, I’m replacing a moron!”.

Great…I haven’t noticed this tell and more importantly…I never said Sloth was a moron.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Having wrote:First off…I bolded the comments in my quote. Are you even paying attention to what you write?

Yes. I copy / paste and don’t take original formatting with me. The bolded is the part of your comment that makes NO sense form the perspective you are arguing.

Nice use of further dismissive language.

You took credit for a comment I had made. You said you bolded something I had bolded. Is that a scum tell? I would say not. I was just pointing out the non-truth/inaccuracy. How is it dismissive to point this out to you. You who are so adept at using dismissive language.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Having wrote:I realize it would not make sense for the wolves to leave an actual seer alive. But why not agree with the logic that IF Emp HAD made it to D2…continuing to not vote him would be the best move for town?

Because this isn’t Fantasyland? Seriously … go find me a single Jungle Republic game where a claimed Seer survived the Night after claiming and wasn’t the killing faction. If you know of one please do because I have never seen it myself.

You can’t come up with a SINGLE scenario where it makes sense for the Werewolves to leave a non-Wolf claimed Seer alive overnight. Not a single one that isn’t a WIFOM fest that revolves around gambling with bad percentages on the Wolf team’s part.

Actually this is Fantasyland. Or are you really in a town that has evil sheep and werewolves?

Still catching up a bit. Should be able to finsh tomorrow and over the weekend.

Wicked…can you elaborate on why you are voting me and why you find my player slot suspicious?

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz 'goodnight

havingfitz · Post Post #700 (isolation #25) » Sat Jun 04, 2011 9:31 am

First post of probably two or three to catch up.

@zMM, I know what you opinion of my VCA is. I asking you for was your take at a VCA based on the votecounts I provided. Feel free to remove my opinioned colorings. Anyone else is welcome to as well.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Hez wrote:Fix your meta MoI. It's awful.

Ok, I get it. You are the 2005 version of Fate.
Wildly unimpressive play, a penchant for rhetoric over actually using your brain, a love for being pointlessly insulting, and an ego that is very disproportionate for your actual game skills.

I thought this was a hilariously ironic post as it describes your play in this game pretty accurately up to this point. I would have thrown pretentious in there as well.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Having
– I’m going to keep this as short as I can. Most of 695 is first, second or Nth iterations of your opinion clashing with mine. I’m not going to continue to waste time debating these issues because you aren’t going to change your mind. On the other issues –

Agreed and ditto.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Having wrote:I agree with all the points above.

So you agree that that post by Hez is chock full of scumminess. Is he now a scum-suspect for you or is he still Town?

I agreed with your observations. I have stated Hez is my weakest town read.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Having wrote:Referencing specific examples do not require statistics. Saying something OVERWHELMINGLY indicates something (ie scum alignment) does. Got it?

I get what you are saying. It’s wrong. A specific example isn’t generally very relevant due to the low sample size. So giving one isolated example of Faraday as scum doing something isn’t relevant.

You saying it’s wrong doesn’t make it wrong. I didn’t say my point was statistically accurate because I do not maintain statistics on what happens on this site. The fact I have observed something happen makes it very relevant FMPOV.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:I am reminded you dodged my question regarding Faraday –

Have you ever played with Faraday as Town? If so did he vote with no reasoning there?

Answer it in your next post please!

Sir! Yes sir!

I did not dodge your question….pardon if it got lost in the clutter of your massive posts. I have played twice with Faraday when he was town. He didn’t give reasons with his vote in that game either. What’s the point? You mention the only person I know who makes a habit of not justifying their votes to justify you doing the same thing? Do you make that a habit? (Hint: No you don’t) So the fact you did it in here raised my suspicion towards you (as it does whenever anyone does it).

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Having wrote:It’s not a lie. Exaggeration again by you. And I like how you call it a lie and then proceed to prove that you suspected him before he left. Why would you consider Sloth’s post 496 as his going AWOL? It was his stretch of not posting in here prior to requesting replacement that constitutes his AWOL and which started your suspicion of him. His last post prior to requesting replacement was Post 416. You start calling him out on his absence in Post 473. THIS equates to you putting pressure on Sloth for not posting in the game. He was not avoiding the game BECAUSE of pressure…the pressure was coming AFTER he stopped posting.

Your definition of AWOL is pointless to the discussion. He was suspicious for posting IN OTHER GAMES while not posting here. That was and has always been part of my suspicion on your slot. Note that after all the ‘pressure’ that was being applied Sloth’s NEXT post requested replacement.

You say it’s pointless because it doesn’t support your suspicions towards Sloth. You have been quite generous with your MISREPs and the fact your suspect play is going unnoticed by everyone other than Hez is frustrating.

havingfitz · Post Post #701 (isolation #26) » Sat Jun 04, 2011 9:33 am

Let me repost the part to zMM in English this time:

@zMM, I know what your opinion of my VCA is. I was asking you for your take at a VCA based on the votecounts I provided. Feel free to remove my opinionated colorings. Anyone else is welcome to as well.

havingfitz · Post Post #704 (isolation #27) » Sat Jun 04, 2011 2:38 pm

MagnaofIllusion wrote:I don’t think Sloth was avoiding the game due to pressure. I think he was avoiding the game because he was scum and wanted to keep a low profile after his Day 1 play. His reaction to pressure being applied for that was to replace out and continue to play actively in other games.

I don’t recall Sloth getting any grief on D1 and if he was getting any significant suspicions or criticisms for his play I think I would recall it. I do know he didn’t receive a single vote on D1 (along with zMM, Caboose and cj). So what reason did he have to stop posting? His name was not mentioned ONCE on D2 until he stopped posting in here. Here is every D2 comment I can find that casts any hint of pressure on Sloth prior to his replacing out:

Post 426 Hez - #4 - Sloth (56/100) - lurky mclurk

Post 437 Wicked - Sloth - Scum.

Post 444 Magna - In looking at ISOs Cjdrum and Sloth’s votes for Emp look the worst.

Post 452 Regfan - Umbrage, I believe Sloth is due for a prod very soon - I saw him posting elsewhere on the site but he's been avoiding this game, he stated he was 'catching up' close to three days ago. // Scum Reads: Neil113, Hezlucky, Sloth.

Post 455 zMM - Sloth needs to be more active. I don't find anything really scummy in his posts, but I haven't really seen him make or push a case on anyone, there's nothing that stands out to me as town in his posts, and his inactivity isn't helping. Null, I need to hear more from him.

Post 462 LMP - Sloth is scum.
Post 464 LMP - Vote: Sloth

Post 465 Cj - Sloth was being difficult and asking me a thousand and one questions on the top of page [number], then has disappeared to [place]. I don't get why a Townie would... Do that. At all.

VOTE: Sloth

Post 473 Magna - I’ve also reviewed Sloth’s posting history. He has 20 posts on site since the thread opened on Friday. Not a single one in this game.

Post 478 Hez – He [Wicked] has DK as town, cjdrum as scum (from the last FOS I could see this), I disagree with Magna as town and neil as scum but the other two (Sloth/MuffinMan) suspicions seem very legitimate as well. // #4 - Sloth (56/100)

Post 483 Regfan - Umbrage, Sloth hasn't posted in more than 5 days, have you sent him a prod?

Post 424 LMP - Since he's scum we should just lynch him and save the mod the trouble.

Post 486 Wicked - Not a bad idea. My scumread on cjdrum is about as strong as my scumread on Sloth and I'd be willing to switch my vote to the latter if there is enough support and cjdrum has defended against the points I bring up. (which I'm still working on)

Post 493 LMP - I agree with pretty much all of 491. I think Sloth is a better lynch though.

IMO I do not think this is anything other than normal pressure. And the majority of the comments are just referencing his absence which he could have dispelled easily by just making a few posts in here. There were NO cases made on him that he needed to lay low from. With my knowledge of his role PM the only explanation I can conceive is that he had lost interest. Which I do not see scum doing.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:You are asserting that it is because he was a bored Townie. I assert it was because he was scum and his best course of action was to get a ‘replacement halo’.

This makes no sense. What good does a “replacement halo” do for someone? Once they quit a game it’s over for them. They don’t win or lose. Who the he|| cares what happens to their player slot AFTER they have gone? If they valued their role in the game enough to try and

~save

it by replacing out…why not just stay in the game and be part of the outcome. If replacing out was such a strong scum tell people would just lynch player slots whenever they replaced out. The “pressure” you mention that forced Sloth to replace out is minimal at best and at the time he replaced out, cj was looking like a sure thing for the day’s lynch.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Having wrote:2. No inconsistency here…I find it suspicious that you suspected DK so much Day 2 and are now focusing (or at least were when you voted me) on my slot for lesser or invalid reasons.

This is laughable. You dismiss it as not being inconsistent but don’t explain how your statement of “Suspicions change” doesn’t equally apply to myself as well as you. As for my reasons being lesser or invalid ... nah baby nah. Your slot was scummy with Sloth's avoidance of thread and your play here has been scummy.

Yeah, you are Inconsistent as Hell about this issue. Scumtastic.

Where am I being inconsistent? Summarize it and I will be more than happy to address it. As I seem to have overlooked it, can you explain your sudden change of heart on DK?

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Having wrote:You took credit for a comment I had made. You said you bolded something I had bolded.

Um, whut? I don’t care if you originally bolded it or not. I bolded it
SPECIFICALLY
to draw attention to the fact that the bolded portion of your statement undercut your point completely.

You are completely straw-manning the argument by going off on some unrelated tangent about whether you originally bolded it or not. That’s irrelevant. You ignore the actual point of the argument in favor of straw-manning.

How is it strawmanning to point out the FACT that you were taking credit for bolding a comment I had bolded? I was simply pointing it out iirc. It’s a harmless point which I find your continued debate/defense of to be more suspect than the initial oversight/error.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Having wrote:Actually this is Fantasyland. Or are you really in a town that has evil sheep and werewolves?

DODGE DODGE DODGE
with another straw-man.

You can’t come up with a credible scenario why a non-Wolf claimed Seer would survive the Night so instead you post this fluff. Scummy as all get out.

Again…why are my comments a strawman example? Your just throwing out mafia buzzwords to try and discredit my comments. What am I dodging?

And as far as credible scenarios….Wicked gave one. I agreed with him which is the origin of this particular debate. I agree with the fact werewolves would be crazy/ballsy/stupid to let a claimed seer live through the night but why make D2 any easier for them by stating who would be the kill the next day? Whats wrong with agreeing with a plan/proposal/scenario that had the wolves letting the seer live and see what happened? I would have been surprised it they had let the seer live but I still thought the way Wicked rationalized a case of not committing to a next day Emp kill was reasonable. You obviously do not agree and have debated it with Wicked…but why it is scummy for me to agree with Wicked while he [wicked] appears to get a pass?

MagnaofIllusion wrote: Since my thread read of Wicked and my VC analysis both make him a very unlikely scum I’m going to place my vote with his. Especially after Having’s latest round of scumtastic replies.

VOTE: Havingfitz

I’m also open to lynching either Hez or Neil today as they are my other top Wolf suspects.

What happened to…

MagnaofIllusion wrote:One of Neil or Hez will be getting my vote when I recast it.

Some other observations while answering your attack on me…

In your [Magna] last three votes you have qualified/based/ each of your votes on the suspicions/cases made by other players.

SHEEP SHEEP SHEEP

I bolded the lines below that illustrate this anamoly (Yes…I BOLDED THEM! See how that works?).

MagnaofIllusion wrote:VOTE: Havingfitz

Now that he’s actually committed to reads in thread in his ‘catch-up’ post I feel there is information to work with.

I’ll address that monstrosity of a catch-up post later in an independent post.
For now LMP’s strong suspicion of Sloth is a great jumping off point for my vote today.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:UNVOTE: havingfitz
VOTE: Neil

That should put Neil at L-1.

After reviewing neil's ISO
I think Regs' summary of the case on Neil is pretty accurate.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Since my thread read of Wicked and my VC analysis both make him a very unlikely scum I’m going to place my vote with his.
Especially after Having’s latest round of scumtastic replies.

VOTE: Havingfitz

Also…since you [Magna] put so much stock in what others think…most recently Wicked, what do you think of the comments below made by wicked (and almost immediately agreed with by LMP)?

Wicked Post 491 wrote:His [cj’s] second post in the game (13 hours after the previous one) he states that either Empking is scum or neil and MoI are. Something extremely interesting to note: Empking flipped town, but cjdrum hasn't expressed any suspicion of neil1113 or MoI today. Moreover, he hasn't mentioned either of them or the point that he brought up earlier.

Do you [Magna] remember agreeing with Wicked? Because you did. I don’t see you debating the fact Wicked essentially linked cj to you and/or neil. I agree with this as well.

In summary...Magna is scum. It would help to get a flip on a wolf and see where that leads us. I still think DK makes sense as a wolf. As for Magna, I am not convinced he is a wolf which is the only reason I do not vote him. Though his backing off of my main wolf read does tie them together in my mind. If I don’t get sidelined by another Magna wall I will refine/clarify my DK read.

Does anyone find the fact there were two players who made an appearance on the 6 person wagon on Emp and the 7 person lynch of Twisted? Those two players were Magna and DK yet they both have alluded suspicion for it. I would be amazed if one or both of them was not scum.

havingfitz · Post Post #705 (isolation #28) » Sat Jun 04, 2011 2:45 pm

zMuffinMan wrote:I'm much too lazy to do a full VCA.

I really didn't disagree with many of the conclusions you came to in your VCA, I just don't agree with your suspicions.

Objectively speaking, the Empking L-1 wagon likely had 3-4 scum on it. The Twisted lynch likely had 3-4 scum on it. Looking at 2+2 or 2+1, probably not 3+1. D2 cj wagon likely had 1+1 on and 1+1 off. Maybe 2+1 on.

This doesn't go against my suspicions, but I'm not going to argue that it supports my suspicions. Hez didn't participate in either lynch. I think Hez is a werewolf and his buddy was likely on both lynches. Wicked would be my top pick for his partner. They haven't voted together at all this game. After Wicked jumped off the Emp wagon, Hez jumped on it. Wicked never went back to Emp, and Hez never went over to Twisted, even after the Emp wagon died.

That's fine. I wasn't looking for a full blown VCA, just your opinion on some of the possibilities the votecounts illustrated.

What are your thoughts on DK, neil and Magna?

havingfitz · Post Post #707 (isolation #29) » Sat Jun 04, 2011 2:58 pm

MagnaofIllusion wrote:His slot was also on both wagons. Yet he only mentions myself and DK as scummy for it.

You are right. I overlooked that point. I was going off memory from when I had pointed this fact out earlier based on the L-2 Emp wagon which you had stated had 4 or 5 scum probably on it. Plus I was looking at it FMPOV which was looking for scum on those wagons...naturally I wouldn't be looking at myself. I stand corrected.

havingfitz · Post Post #723 (isolation #30) » Mon Jun 06, 2011 9:27 am

Wickedestjr wrote:
havingfitz wrote:1. It's what came to my mind when I read that post. I was not trying to prove a math theorem when I made the comment. I found it slightly suspect for what I stated above.

1. When you said 'way to commit' were you trying to say that you found DK's stance to be a weak one?

havingfitz wrote:
Wickedestjr wrote:Also, havingfitz, why do you think DK and neil are werewolves and not mafia?

The VCA.

I don't see where you explained how neil and DK are werewolves as opposed to mafia. Can you quote what you said earlier that made you believe DK and neil were werewolves instead of mafia?

1. When I say way to commit I was focusing on the word "try" when DK stated he thought scum would try to avoid the cj wagon if cj was to flip scum. I felt like this was DK's attempt to steer people away from looking at cj's wagon for scum. And with ther still being four scum in play...I think DK's statement is quite a reach. Especially given that the werewolves would have absolutely no qualms about lynching cj. So DK steering folks off the cj wagon seemed like more of something a werewolf would say. I am still of the opinion that one or both werewolves are likley to be on the cj wagon and given the suspicion cj was receiving, a decent chance of at least one mafia partner (aka evil sheep) bussing him.

My rationale for thinking DK was a wolf was provided directly above my vote on him.

I'm still putting together a closer look at DK (RL has been distracting me) but I will say recent activity has me questioning my thoughts on DK and neil being partners. I will try to post more this evening.

havingfitz · Post Post #725 (isolation #31) » Tue Jun 07, 2011 6:26 am

Mod...you've had three people on significant v/LAs in the past week.

With half the players still alive occupying scum slots do you really think it is fair to town to reduce the time available to flush out/ID scum?

havingfitz · Post Post #726 (isolation #32) » Tue Jun 07, 2011 6:36 am

EBWOP...nevermind, I just noticed a week from now almost coincides with a normal three day deadline anyway. v/LAs not helping things out.

BTW mod

...I looked at the countdown and it was not very clear on when the deadline is. It just shows how long the day has been going...not when it ends.

Link now fixed.

havingfitz · Post Post #754 (isolation #33) » Wed Jun 08, 2011 2:46 am

I'm travelling today to

I will be v/LA through Friday night

. I may have internet where I'm going but time will be limited. TBD. I will try not to let posting be affected too much.

@Hez...not sure if it matters on your VCA but you mention Magna as starting the wagon on cj. I believe Wicked was the first vote on cj and the mod just didn't note it.

havingfitz · Post Post #764 (isolation #34) » Wed Jun 08, 2011 5:43 pm

I started to look at your VCA a few days ago and couldn't get anywhere with it so I didn't post anything. Since you ask...I looked again. The bulk of your VCA is lots of data that doesn't come to any succinct conclusions. You've basically left yourself open to anyone being scum. You did not really put people into firm categories as far as I can see. Everyone (except you naturally) is town or wolf, sheep or town, or sheep or wolf.

ex...you think there are at least 2 scum within Muffin, Reg, Neil, DK, Hez, having. Great work.

By POE that leaves at most two scum in the remaining two players: Wicked and Magna.

Are you admitting to being scum? I doubt it...so that must mean there is only one scum not in the "Muffin, Reg, Neil, DK, Hez, having" group, ie Wicked.

So are you saying Wicked is scum and therefore there are really three scum within the "Muffin, Reg, Neil, DK, Hez, having" grouping? Excellent. You've really narrowed it down.

Unless you are saying Wicked isn't scum in which case you have all four in the "Muffin, Reg, Neil, DK, Hez, having" group. Got it.

Your ACTUAL VC Analysis has cleared things up completely. (j/k)

What do you think of Hez's VCA?

havingfitz · Post Post #786 (isolation #35) » Thu Jun 09, 2011 8:53 am

@MoI...I based my comments of your VCA on the comments you made. Show me one definite stance you made in your conclusions. And by definite stance...I mean not a this or that deduction. As far as Boldgate goes...you have made far more of an issue with it than I have. Talk about deflecting attention from more serious suspicions.

I find it very suspect that you spend another wallpost critiquing (sp?) the person you are vointg and one of your top suspects (Hez) and then vote for the leading wagon. It looks like self preservation FMPOV. I still think DK is extremely suscious, regardless of his VI categorization by people (VIs can be scum too), and I'm amazed that he continues to elude votes. I have you and DK as my top suspects and neil and zMM a distant 3rd and 4th. The fact zMM is voting you and neil is leaning that way has me very interested in your flip (sans a DK flip) and as my DK vote is going nowhere, I'll move to my #2.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Magna

havingfitz · Post Post #788 (isolation #36) » Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:26 am

DeityKabuto wrote:Hammer neil, that Magna, we all know neil is the safer lynch.

I strongly disagree that neil is a safer lynch than Magna (or you for that matter). Hammer Magna, then based on his flip go from there.

If Magna flips werewolf I think that clears a few people from consideration tomorrow (at least as wolves)...notably Hez, you and neil (and I) as I can not envision any scenario where MoI is aligned with any of the aforementioned players. I don't see a wolf bussing his partner unless absolutely necessary or unless a wagon is headed towards a certain lynch...which with the competing neil wagon, both are equally viable at this point.

havingfitz · Post Post #794 (isolation #37) » Thu Jun 09, 2011 1:16 pm

MagnaofIllusion wrote:Oh look, Having himself doesn't even consider for a moment that I could be possibly Town.

He just wants one of his biggest detractors out of the way.

Scumtastic.

I've always got a sliver of doubt when I vote someone. Of course you could be town. However I think you are definitely scum and hopefully wolf. Were you considering me town when you voted me on two seperate occasions today?

Wickedestjr wrote:havingfitz, I thought I remembered you saying you thought DK and neil were the werewolves. Now neil is at L-1 and you vote Magna? What gives?

I find them both suspicious. Based on my VCA I thought they could be linked and I was leaning as werewolves. neil however is one of my weaker suspicions and his recent exchange with DK and DK's strong push to lynch him have me questioning that connection. Magna is my #2 suspicion and the way he has tap danced around DK...and vice versa for that matter, have me wondering if they couldn't be linked together. That's why I think a DK vote on Magna would help refine reads on everyone. As no one seems to be up for a DK wagon/lynch I would rather go for my strong #2 than for my uncertain #3 or 4.

Wickedestjr wrote:havingfitz, you said you believed neil was a Werewolf (with DK). Would you rather this day end in a no-lynch or a neil lynch?

If we were on the verge of a no-lynch I would probably vote for anyone other than you and Regfan who I am firmly leaning town towards. So no...I'd rather lynch neil than have a no lynch. On that train of thought...I would rather have a Magna lynch than a neil lynch and I'd rather have a DK lynch than a Magna lynch.

havingfitz · Post Post #888 (isolation #38) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 5:08 pm

Wow. I go out to eat and watch the NBA finals thinking this game is going to start back up sometime tomorrow and I come back to 3 pages of WTF! And at least two claims that I know of. Wow. I'll try to catch up and give my thoughts before I crash but I don't think I'll be putting a vote down anytime soon (at least not tonight).

havingfitz · Post Post #893 (isolation #39) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 1:33 am

I'm not clear yet on what is going on but I do know that neil is confirmed scum. And zMM was a top wolf candidate yesterday as well. They could still both be wolves.

VOTE: neil1113

havingfitz · Post Post #898 (isolation #40) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 3:40 am

Man...when neil claimed scum I thought, "Sh;t! I wasn't considering that."

I thought we were heading towards a draw at best.

When Regfan claimed mafia I thought he was a bit in scramble mode but was holding out hope neil's partner wouldn't out himself. Once zMM claimed I didn't think there was any other possibility other than a draw.

It was a pleasant surprise to wake up this morning to see neil at L-1.

I honestly did think MoI could have been scum and his wallposts were a P.I.T.A. So I was glad to see him go (no offense MoI

)

Good game all...I had fun being a bad guy, it doesn't happen enough for me. Thanks for modding Umbrage.

havingfitz · Post Post #905 (isolation #41) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 5:37 am

I'll let Regfan decide whether to post the wolf QT. I have no issues with it.

havingfitz · Post Post #909 (isolation #42) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:26 am

I thought neil's claim was a great move. I was pissed I hadn't considered it when Regfan and I were discussing who to NK. If it had been discusssed during the evening we may have reconsidered offing Wicked and shooting for scum (which Regfan had pegged).

If I had been town I would have considered it a legitimate claim as if neil had been a fakeclaiming wolf...at least one of the real mafia would have most likley counter-claimed. Regfan took care of that (the counter) and in hindsight I think it was a good move...but that kind of forced neil's partner to either confirm neil or stay quiet and try to push the Regfan lynch. Once zMM claimed however I did not think there was anyway we were going to get out of a draw or a Ragfan lynch. Not sure how things would have played out if Regfan had been the lynch. I obviously would not have claimed and would have hoped to convince the remaining players to lynch either DK or Hez. Not sure which mafia I would have NK'd or which town I would have focused on the last day. Glad I avoided that ulcer.

Thanks for the props neil...I wonder who you are confusing me with

havingfitz · Post Post #919 (isolation #43) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 7:17 am

MagnaofIllusion wrote:Ah look, Surprise surprise surprise Having was a Werewolf. Shocker. Note to the future Having - if you ever are scum in a game I'm playing again you had better pray you get stupid Town to work with you like Hez and DK. You were quite obv from the second you replaced in.

Town played HORRIBLE this game. All the way around.

Reg played the best scum game. He was the only player of the 4 remaining scum I didn't identify in my post lynch PM to Umbrage.

Great game Umbrage
- smooth GMing and good flavor for an open game.

@MoI...wow. Poor sport much? You were really full of yourself this game and the sourgrapes don't become you.

You didn't have any case on me "the second" I replaced in. My defense of your weak accusations was legitimate as were my accusations towards you. I did think you could have been scum and the fact the majority of your townmates voted for you bears that out.

Regarding "stupid Town," maybe town would have fared better if you hadn't been a driving force behind the mislynch of Twistedspoon and the outing of your Seer.

As for playing with me again when I am scum, I don't need "stupid Town" to deal with you. Your suspicions were based on another player [Sloth] and you helped me enough on your own.

@all - As I mentioned earlier, I thought neil's claim was a good move. Not sure what the problem is with it. When he did it I didn't think, "Damn! He can't do that!", I thought "Damn! I can't believe he did that...crap!" It worked out for the best though.

havingfitz · Post Post #929 (isolation #44) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 10:00 am

DK...have you realized the game is over yet? And cj is still dead in here?

havingfitz · Post Post #934 (isolation #45) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 3:53 pm

Umbrage wrote:Even after the claim, Mafia had a chance of winning. If Regfan was lynched, havingfitz would have no choice but to kill Neil. Then if havingfitz was lynched, it would be a 3p lylo with Mafia having a 1/3 chance of winning.

Before zMM claimed as well, yes...neil would have had to have been the NK.

After zMM claimed it would required more thought on who to kill. I would have not said anything so tomorrow would have had three claimed VTs (me, Hez, and DK) and essentially a confirmed scum in zMM.

Unless two on the non-wolves could have been convinced to vote on one of their group, it would have most likely winding up in a town win.

havingfitz · Post Post #936 (isolation #46) » Tue Jun 14, 2011 1:15 am

So my ideal play was to go into the next day alone (1) against 2 mafia and 2 town? That doesn't sound too ideal to me. Maybe (BIG maybe) before we knew you were neil's partner but not afterwards.

havingfitz · Post Post #939 (isolation #47) » Tue Jun 14, 2011 2:02 am

OK...I see what you are saying.

As I would not have claimed at this point I'm not sure I wouldn't have NK'd the last sheep and taken a chance that DK or Hez would throw a vote down on the other.

Better (FMPOV) to not have to have been in that situation.

havingfitz · Post Post #943 (isolation #48) » Fri Jun 17, 2011 3:26 am

Wickedestjr wrote:Congratulations to Regfan and Havingfitz! Well played.

Firstly:

Wickedestjr wrote:Alright. I'm not finished catching up, but I have work to do. So, here are my thoughts:

LynchMePls - Scum. Didn't like the catchup post.
Regfan - Town.
DeityKabuto - Town.
HezLucky - Neutral. (Looks a little bit better after reading his last big post in day 1.)

cjdrum - Scum.

MagnaofIllusion - Town.

neil1113 - Neutral/Scum (His reaction to my suspicion of him looks a little bit townish, but there are still a few questions I need answered.
Sloth - Scum.
zMuffinMan - Neutral/Scum

I'd like to read my scumspects in ISO later as well.

I was pretty close.

Ya think? I have seen you peg the entire scum team in a few games now. I would NK you N1 in any future game I'm scum vs you in. The only reason you weren't NK'd in here was because I wanted at least one day of evading you (which I didn't really do).