OPEN 310 - Medical Mafia - TOWN WIN


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Post Post #126 (isolation #0) » Mon Jun 06, 2011 2:48 am

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chkflip wrote:
For example, lets go with the assumption that we're to use the plan of protecting the person below us on the player list. OH, LOOK AT THAT, the person below X died, that must mean they're one of the freak-accident doctors OR scum. That's on top of the quack doctor. The only 100% fool-proof tell is if the doctor that dies protecting a mafia goon dies... but even that could be WIFOM'd by the mafia since we won't be getting sanities from the flips. Broken down enough?


If the person below X died, we know X can't be a "real" (normal, weak or paranoid) doctor. I'd say this is pretty valuable information.

HellloooNewman wrote:
It makes sense to me. Think of it this way. Say, the scum want to frame somebody (say Player A) as the Quack Doctor. They know that Player A is targeting Player B. They kill Player B. The chances are in their favor that they will kill someone that was NOT targeted by the real Quack Doc (simple probability).

Player B dies from the scum kill, and Player C dies from the REAL Quack Doc. Through speculation, they push their agenda that Player A MUST be the Quack Doc, and Player C MUST have been the scum kill (when it is in fact the opposite).


Why should we be stupid enough to believe this?

The next night, Player A thinks he is the Quack Doc (which he is not) and he doesn't use his protect (thereby making scum kills easier). And whoever targeted Player C doesn't realize that they are the real Quack Doc, so he protects again, leading to a kill.


No, both Player A and Player C's protector (I'll call them D) know they are not real doctors, so they are going to target a suspected scum player.

HellloooNewman wrote:True, but think about this. If the scenario I spelled out were to happen, the scum would know who the QD is and exploit that fact. Without the claims, they won't have extra intel over us.


And we won't have ANY information about ourselves.

I think that is what it boils down to. Going through with the hypo doc stuff gives the scum way more information than it gives the town.


Everything gives scum more information than town. Scum has an information advantage right from the beginning, which they can use to deduce even more as the game progresses.

HellloooNewman wrote:Scum will know our quack. They know who they killed. They would know who targeted them (via the hypo docing). So, if that person died, they would know that the
CPR doc
weak doc is dead. Hence, another death would be the Quack.


And how are they going to use this information to their advantage, except by not killing him (which they aren't going to do anyway with a player that might be a quack)? It can't be used in day game as it would make the player confirmed scum immediately.

tl;dr: Hypodoc'ing is the way.

Moratorium wrote:
Basically, this is posing a question: which is stronger? 7 varied flavors of Doctor, or 7 Vanilla townies? Looking at the 7 doctor roles, there's a possibility of 0-4 kills, and a possibility of 0-4 saves. Does that make them equal to 7 vanilla, with the 7 vanilla being less of a knife's edge strategy than 7 doctors?


If we would play mountainous, we lose 1 townie for sure. Assuming no lynch, circle hypodoc'ing, a random distribution of roles and a random night kill, we lose 2.08201058 townies and 0.565665155 scum on average, and gain a lot of information which will help us later. No risk, no fun.
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Post Post #135 (isolation #1) » Mon Jun 06, 2011 9:29 am

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Moratorium wrote:
Not sure how I'm supposed to address the fact that you think I'm... the second worst townie? Thank you? I'm wierded out by this, it's like a reverse backhanded compliment.


I currently have you as my top scumread, simply because I'm pretty sure that at least one scum player was on the early DK wagon, and the other players on the wagon appear towny.

tim_hill: Scummy for posting a minimum of posts containing a minimum of content.

jilynne: May be flaking; if she isn't replaced, same as tim_hill.

DK: Scummy because he went through the roof when Hoppster had a slight suspicion on him.

Newman: Neutral. It's pretty obvious that you have something against DK, but that seems to be on a personal level and have nothing to do with the game. Your arguments against hypodoc'ing and for mountainous are strange and scummy, but your posts before that are towny.

Amrun, Quilford and Hoppster: Town.
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Post Post #140 (isolation #2) » Mon Jun 06, 2011 10:44 am

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Moratorium wrote:
I voted for DK first, in post #4 of this game, as an obvious RVS vote. So I'm not sure how you are attributing me to a "wagon". I also ended up having to unvote 4 hours and 34 minutes later, in post #21 (again, page 1 Day 1, literally the morning of game start) because everyone piled on behind me.

I'm fine with discussing your "scumread", and would in fact encourage it based on the lack of scumhunting in this game, but I'd like to hear something from you with a little more substance than the wagon I wasn't on, or my "appearance".


Actually those are good arguments, and they match with your previous posts. Consider yourself cleared for now.

As this makes DK more suspicious, and jilynne has provided an adequate explanation, my current scumteam suspect is DK/tim_hill.
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Post Post #173 (isolation #3) » Tue Jun 07, 2011 1:08 am

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tim_hill1990 wrote:
seems like a lot of work and analysis for something that's not guaranteed for us to win.


The game would be rather boring if there were a guaranteed way for one side to win.

One of the advantages I can see is that it would make scum have to really buckle down and work things out and how they are going to proceed.


For some reason, this sentence makes my scumdar beep continuously.

Would this system pretty much out some people as town though?


How?

Anyway, what are your reads?
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Post Post #185 (isolation #4) » Tue Jun 07, 2011 11:33 am

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Since you haven't posted any reads even though I and other players have asked you to,
VOTE: tim_hill1990
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Post Post #192 (isolation #5) » Tue Jun 07, 2011 1:11 pm

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UNVOTE:

To prevent a (scum self-)quickhammer.

Anyway, if discussion should be cut short, please protect the person below you in the player list.
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Post Post #227 (isolation #6) » Thu Jun 09, 2011 3:26 am

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tim_hill1990 wrote:
And no I won't give more, not if you ask me like that.


VOTE: tim_hill1990

I may have reasons not to give reads, are you saying I should post my reads on everyone at all times, without provocation? I don't see everyone doing that either...


You should, but I (and most other players) don't do it always, so I won't hold it against you. What I do hold against you is that you actually refuse to give reads although both Amrun and I have asked you several times. And I can't think of a pro-town reason to refuse to give reads.

tim_hill1990 wrote:
And what if the people you are cooperating with are scum?
You not liking that i'm casting doubt on other's townieness is interesting, almost like i'm hiting on some sort of truth.
I just want to avoid (as I said above) people assuming others are town, and then us losing because we overlooked other people.


Don't worry. Nobody here assumes that somebody is town from their first post, never changing their reads as the game progresses. However, "he looks like he's town so he might be scum" won't change a read for most people here.

I think it is an issue, what if say someone was designated to protect someone underneath them, and that person survives the night and no kills were made that night. But the person protecting was scum?


That doesn't matter - if somebody doesn't die, we can't assume that the player above him is a doctor. Scum simply could've targeted somebody else.

Or a situation in which we all think "cool nobody died, guess these people must all be doc's" or something like that?


It's an open game. Read the first post, it shows all the roles in the game. We know what roles there are, we just don't know who has them.
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Post Post #247 (isolation #7) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 1:17 am

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tim_hill1990 wrote:
You want reads on everyone from me ok>


Why did you not give your reads before that?
What do you think about hypodoc'ing now?
Assumed you alone could decide the lynch, who would you choose?

Also, good luck for your exam.

Current reads:

tim_hill: Finally gave his reads (though I don't agree with him - he calls me and jilynne eager to jump on his wagon, but I only voted him again for his refusal to give reads, and jilynne never voted for him and didn't express suspicions about him), but still didn't provide any justification for not giving them before. Actually, I'd say it's possible newbtown behavior, but he already has three games played to completion, so he's scummy.
DK: Candidate for a policy lynch (yes, I know we shouldn't do this), leaning scum for his attempted quickhammer and strange behavior in general. If tim_hill is scum, DK is his scumpartner; otherwise he would've jumped on his wagon.
jilynne: Probably town, but that's more of a gut feeling.
Newman: Neutral. Needs to post. I don't read too much in his arguments against DK - it seems to be a personal vendetta.
Hoppster and Quilford: Definitely need to post. Their town points from the beginning are being eaten by their lurking.
Moratorium and Amrun: Town.
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Post Post #278 (isolation #8) » Sat Jun 11, 2011 4:02 am

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HellloooNewman wrote:
DK - Scum or town, excellent lynch. The quickhammer attempt is the sort of simple scumtell that he'd have.


HellloooNewman wrote:
And my vote is not on Jill because it is on DK. Despite thinking he is a step away from full blown retard, I think he is scum AND today's best lynch.


What made you change your opinion on DK's alignment?

DeityKabuto wrote:
I will only go along with hypo-docing if everyone else will actually do it because I don't want people to agree and not do anything, that would only help scum, since the people who are scum came up with the hypo-docing idea and they can say"WELL IT WAS MY IDEA SO WHAT MAKES YOU THINK I DIDN'T DO ANYTHING". I really think it's idiotic and that people will say they agree but they wont do it.


Why should anybody not hypo-doc (except scum, of course, and maybe VIs)? Is there any pro-town reason to not hypodoc?

Also, why do you think hypo-doc'ing is "idiotic" and what is your alternative to hypo-doc'ing?
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Post Post #288 (isolation #9) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:56 am

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DeityKabuto wrote:
My alternative is at the start of D2, everyone claim if the roles are announced during Death. Because even the people who agree for hypo-doc probably wont do it, and they can lie. It's not that much a reliable method, since not everyone is confirmed to co-op with the hypo-doc just because they say they will discarding the two scum.


Again: Why should anybody but scum not hypo-doc? What is a pro-town reason for that?
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Post Post #315 (isolation #10) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:30 pm

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tim_hill1990 wrote:
Was it Iceguy who asked me a question? Something about why did I not give reads when prompted?
Reason> Wasn't asked nicely, it was demanded from me. I don't like that.


Yes, it was me. What was your problem with
IceGuy wrote:
Anyway, what are your reads?


Also, what do you currently think of DK and Hoppster?
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Post Post #318 (isolation #11) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:41 pm

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DeityKabuto wrote:Everyone with a vote one is delusional. They are too lazy to scumhunt so they just easy-vote-my-ass.

That is bullshit, what has this game become?


Haven't you once, even for a second, considered the possibility that your behavior might be the problem?
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Post Post #325 (isolation #12) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 12:51 am

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jilynne1991 wrote:
What I also see is that, roleclaiming nurse doesn't hurt you. Scum has no more reason to kill you than anyone else. What do you guys think of this?


Bad idea. If the nurse claims, scum knows for sure which player is unprotected.
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Post Post #330 (isolation #13) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:50 am

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@Mod: If we lynch scum today, and more than one doctor dies N1, what role will the nurse get?
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Post Post #342 (isolation #14) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 10:15 am

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I hope tim_hill1990 is a quack doctor. I can't stop facepalming right now.
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Post Post #348 (isolation #15) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 10:53 am

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Moratorium wrote:I'm assuming he got his scum role PM, didn't read the game, assumed everyone got their PM with specific doctor details, and, not realizing this, now thinks a mass claim will actually reveal useful information.


I know what I'm going to post in the "Funniest Scumslips" thread when this game is finished.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: DeityKabuto
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Post Post #367 (isolation #16) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 2:07 pm

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*facepalm* *facepalm* *facepalm*

I'm going to bed now. Good night.
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Post Post #380 (isolation #17) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 11:30 pm

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tim_hill1990 wrote:
IceGuy wrote:I hope tim_hill1990 is a quack doctor. I can't stop facepalming right now.

Was that aimed at me or DK, if me why facepalm?


That was aimed at DK. If he wouldn't have been lynched, he would be below you in the player list.
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Post Post #616 (isolation #18) » Fri Jul 08, 2011 1:49 pm

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Good game everybody. As D2 progressed, I actually thought Amrun was the second scum.

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