Open 318: By Nomination Only (Game Over)

[VitaminR]

Vote: twistedspoon

for being talked into an Amrun vote in a strange way.

PZ came off as town in that gambit to me. I had the same feeling about Amrun's reaction.

[VitaminR]

^Scum, with or without Zito.

NS, I want to know why you had this reaction to Hoopla.

[VitaminR]

Vote: twistedspoon

for being talked into an Amrun vote in a strange way.

way to read the thread comapdré
I never voted Amrun

VOTE: vitamin
btw, Amrun reads as town to me. I would have questioned the early claim had amrun not done so, and I know i'm town

Sorry, you're right, I misread. I got Mumm-Ra mixed up with Amrun.

Unvote

for now.
But why does this make me likely scum exactly?

[VitaminR]

Vote: twistedspoon

for being talked into an Amrun vote in a strange way.

way to read the thread comapdré
I never voted Amrun

VOTE: vitamin

Just to elaborate on this point, I find it suspicious that the scummiest thing you've seen so far was something that never happened.
Was there anything else voteworthy to you? anything else you find scummy?

There are some other things, yes.

[VitaminR]

This post drips with scumdroplets because A) it uses big words to make it seem as though she's saying something and B) it's mind-reading.

It's just NOT a pro-town thing to do, interpreting others' reactions for your own benefit. It'd better if she had

asked

Zito about his supposed "gambit."

Bleh, I kinda disagree. Hoopla probably uses big words because she's clever and I don't think this is a tell anyway. If she misinterprets, PZ can just correct it, right? I don't think there is real manipulation here.

tell me what else you find scummy/voteworthy and we'll see

do you find PZ's gambit town? And Amrun's reaction? Do you agree with NS's logic?

I did give my opinion on this, in my first post. PZ's gambit is more likely town than scum and I didn't like Amrun's reaction either (I had the same gut feeling about this as PZ). By NS's logic, do you mean the above or something else?

[VitaminR]

Amrun is very likely town, and damn near confirmed on a Rory/NS scumflip.

Copper, why do you think that Amrun is likely town?

[VitaminR]

I like this muffin guy.

Now,
Looking back, I don't like the way Amrun votes Papa Zito, then she backs down and says it was just a random vote and didn't mean she thought he was scum, then then claims she did it for reaction testing, she finally unvotes when Zito says that his claim was done to kickstart the game (even though people had already proposed that as an idea before), as if this was what she had been waiting for. This whole passage of play reads to me as fake.

Fenchurch, could you describe to me your initial thought process about the Amrun-PZ thing and how it has changed? Just in a few sentences or a paragraph, I don't need a novel.

Twistedspoon, NS's Copper vote is clearly strange, but I feel it doesn't make much sense from either a scum or a town perspective. So I need to see more from him before I can get any sort of read.

[VitaminR]

Twistedspoon, could you describe to me your impression of NS's scum (and/or town) meta?

[VitaminR]

Rory: Meh. I had a reaction similar to muffin's to Fenchurch's first few posts. I grant you that muffin's conviction is a bit odd, but he has cited meta-related reasons for his case, which you have ignored.

If one adds to this that muff had to be asked to find reasons, one should become more worried. Because given these reasons (passivity, little interaction), there were many suitable targets, not Fenchurch alone. That's not because many players are bad, it's because the game is young. It's even more odd that muff semi buddys me here (I could explain a myself, apparently), because I've been withholding my vote in an obvious way, as has been observed by some clever townies.

You appear to imply here that you've been withholding your vote on purpose. If so, could you explain why?

[VitaminR]

I'm VT, by the way, if anyone's wondering.

What a convenient role to claim.

What reason is there to claim so early? So people have more reason to think you're town? So you can direct people back to it when you're at L-1? Scum benefit from that. If you're really town, you don't have to prove anything.

I don't understand you here, forest. Claiming vanilla doesn't mean anything, surely?

[VitaminR]

Give me some time. I'll get around to placing a new vote. There's one or two reactions that I'd like to see to confirm my reads. My vote on twisted was mainly to get a reaction and I didn't feel that more pressure on my other suspect at the time (Amrun) was productive, so I unvoted when I realised I had misread twisted's post.

Don't want to publicize everything we use in identifying townies. But in brief, it's the interactions between NobodySpecial and Amrun, and the towns reaction to them.

Fair enough. I don't really get what you are getting at here, but I suppose it's not a bad idea to be cautious about town reads in this set-up.

[VitaminR]

Hm. My thinking was that the nomination mechanic makes that a little dangerous. Nightless obviously makes good town reads more powerful, but don't we want to restrict scum's ability to predict who'd be lynched in certain nomination groups? This is why I've been withholding my town reads, at least.

[VitaminR]

I actually agree with Rory about NS. I came to a similar conclusion perusing previous games of his. I'm not sure his behaviour this game tells us that much yet.

Rory, what do you think of muffinman's response to your vote?

[VitaminR]

I have suspects that I will divulge when I see fit. I'm a cautious player and tend to be slow to place a vote.

[VitaminR]

It's useful right now, since it's giving me material for reads (though I don't think there's a vote on me that screams scum - Copper I can't really read so far, and I don't think the way you or Amrun voted me was particularly scummy. I was inviting some pressure, considering how conspicuous my lack of voting is). Twisted might be a little scummy for maintaining some soft pressure on me (could be scum keeping the option of wagonning me open), but it also seems consistent with his earlier suspicions.

But I'm not going to be rushed. Though if someone can convince me that divulging town reads is a good idea in this set-up, I'll share those.

[VitaminR]

Amrun, I know. I replied to that post in the post below it saying that I was somewhat uncertain still because of the nomination mechanic (specifically, I'm worried that scum will be able to force us to lynch only between players that look town to everyone).

Fenchurch, this is just because divulging a scum read can make scum change their behaviour so that they're harder to read. So I'm reluctant to share them if I don't yet feel that they're solid enough for a vote or if there's one or two reactions I'm still waiting for from that particular suspect.

[VitaminR]

Obviously, some reaction tests demand you obscure your reasoning, and a few have you withholding your read entirely. But not voting at

all

? There is no player you can commit to saying "they should be lynched over other players?"

I'm a cautious player. Once I vote, I commit to it and I don't tend to vote for pressure. I haven't withheld my reads entirely, though. In the first couple of pages, I thought Amrun and twisted were good semi-serious votes.

I'd also like to point out the strong dichotomy between TwistedSpoon and VitaminR's reactions. TwistedSpoon, despite being called "safe for now" by us, voted as soon as we pointed out he wasn't voting - the pro-town thing to do. VitaminR, by contrast, tried to loudly justifiy his lack of voting and continue doing it. Town players told they are playing poorly (and not voting is exceedingly poor town play) will quickly re-engage with the game. Good scum will do the same. But bad or simply absent-minded scum are overly concerned with saving face - they'd rather JUSTIFY their inaction instead of RESOLVING it. Or, to phrase it another way, concern with appearance over effectiveness is a scumtell, and we feel even safer calling TwistedSpoon town and VitaminR scum.

You're simply attempting to gather more justification your vote on me here. I haven't loudly declared I'm not voting at all. I've simply calmly disclosed my strategy when people asked me about it. It's baffling to me that you're drawing these conclusions. I've played enough mafia not to need your advice on how to play as town. I know what strategy helps me get reads. If I throw my vote around, I get caught up in arguments and emotional reactions and it obscures my ability to think about the game.

Copper, have any of your heads ever played with me?

[VitaminR]

Hoopla defending Fenchurch is a null tell, IMO. I can think of a bunch of reasons why Hoopla of any alignment would do that. Just the fact that Hoopla asked Fenchurch to play in this game would give me enough of a sense of responsibility towards Fenchurch.

[VitaminR]

Whatever, I'll be less stubbornly non-transparent. PZ, muffin, and twisted are town. Hoopla and forest probably are too.

And

Vote: Rory the Roman

.

[VitaminR]

Alright, scratch my probtown assessment of forest.

[VitaminR]

Twisted, I am voting Rory for two reasons.

His vote for muffin felt very much like what he was accusing muffin of, "fake conviction, random target." He construes muffin's vote as being based on passivity, which is unfair, and ignores muffin's quite reasonable response (I was hoping to get Rory's reaction to this before voting, but I suppose this isn't happening).

Then there is this:

If one adds to this that muff had to be asked to find reasons, one should become more worried. Because given these reasons (passivity, little interaction), there were many suitable targets, not Fenchurch alone. That's not because many players are bad, it's because the game is young. It's even more odd that muff semi buddys me here (I could explain a myself, apparently), because I've been withholding my vote in an obvious way, as has been observed by some clever

townies

.

First off, there is an obvious slip here, which I've bolded. How does he know that the people who picked up on him withholding his vote are townies? Because he's scum.

He also implies there was a reason for withholding his vote and never supplies it. This is more strange than scummy (I was hoping to have him explain this to get more of a read on his behaviour, but I guess he missed my question).

[VitaminR]

Fenchurch, what do you think of my vote on Rory?

[VitaminR]

Hoopla is town. Just fyi.

Amrun, I withheld my vote because I wanted Rory to respond to muffinman's defense of himself without the light of suspicion on him. There was no real pressure on Rory at all at the time, so I wanted his defenses to stay down so that I could get a more accurate read. I voted him when I realised this response wasn't coming.

As for why I shared my town reads: I was hoping to have a discussion about the advantages and disadvantages of sharing town reads in this set-up, but no one seems to share my concerns. If I'm going to be the only one withholding my town reads, it's kinda useless.

[VitaminR]

Twisted, I'd tell you if I had superstrong logical reasons for it, but it's really mainly based on gut and town-tells only valid from my perspective. Her thought processes seem genuine and a lot like my own in places. Also, she's been wavering on me a little bit when she hasn't needed to at all. As scum, it would have been advantageous to keep pretending that my playstyle is indicative of caught scum trying to be consistent.

[VitaminR]

I initially thought that Rory's posts in which he appears to incriminate PZ and NS (if I recall correctly) without voting were a bit of a scum tell, as others have also pointed out. In that post, he seems to imply that it was intentional, which might nullify that as a tell (depending on how convincing his story is). So I wanted him to elaborate on it (and still do).

[VitaminR]

Not feeling the PZ wagon.

Twisted, could you briefly summarise for me your current thinking about this game?

[VitaminR]

Why would you consciously choose to be non-transparent?

Copper, I've kinda gone over this already. I've given the specific reasons for holding off on my Rory vote and explained why I was cautious with my town reads. I'm getting the feeling you haven't really read my posts...

I don't understand where the VitaminR wagon has gone. Lurking is one thing - deliberate, obstinate non-transparency is quite another. There are quite a few players who aren't connected enough for my liking, but VitaminR's moping attitude about it is setting off serious alarm bells. It seems more like trying to defend an initial misstep, rather than correcting it a la twistedspoon.

I think you're painting a slightly unfair picture here. I've been quite calm about my strategy and why I choose to use it. I don't really see where I've moped (I think I even said I was sort of inviting the pressure on me). You also appear to imply that I'm not "connected enough." In what sense do you think I should be more connected?

And why did you lose your probtown assesment of forest_air in 186?

My probtown assessment of forest_air was based on the fact that forest didn't seem to understand the set-up. But then forest said:

If I didn't understand the setup, I wouldn't have signed up.

So it's probably a null tell.

[VitaminR]

I kinda disagree with you that it could be a town tell, actually. My feeling is that the source of confusion was that forest didn't quite realise that claiming is meaningless if there are no PRs. That's a null tell at best.

There is a possibility that she's inexperienced scum that was caught off-guard by townies claiming. If she's really trying to deny or keep shush about being confused, I think that would be the only reason why. Her reasons for being confused could come from her being scum. But I'd need to see a little more evidence for this story to take it seriously.

[VitaminR]

Amrun's probably town.

Re forest: I suppose we agree then! I wasn't sure what you were saying exactly. Because you said you have no interest in lynching forest today, I thought you were trying to say that it was a town tell.

Twisted, could you briefly summarise for me your current thinking about this game?

I'll do this tommorow. I'm too tired to cut and paste some quotes

Oh and twisted, if it involves cutting and pasting quotes, it's not a brief summary. I was really basically looking for the impressionistic paragraph that was at the end of your post. It just helps me read people if they occasionally give a quick summary of how they feel about the game. It's hard to consistently fake for scum. Feel free to add substance to this, though. It's always useful.

[VitaminR]

Quite content with my Rory vote still. The attack on muffinman is off.

Twisted, I'd like to see more from forest before making my mind up about her. I want her to talk about her reads and explain her apparent confusion about the set-up. I can see too many other explanations for her inactivity (e.g. she could just be busy).

VitaminR: Just because I think that one post MAY be an elementary scumtell does not mean that forest is the most advantageous lynch for the day.

Well clearly. I just thought you were implying you had a town read on forest. But nvm.

[VitaminR]

In the same post as I mention Vitamin for the last time (266) you get your answers. Vitamin is passive semi lurking scum who should know better. Esspecially on the passive part. For example: he sat back too long at the start of the game. I think I even bothered to make a case on you. There is your answer then.

I kinda want to lynch you just for how annoying this is. Especially coming from someone who posts less than me, whose reads have to be weaseled out of him, and who steadfastly ignores every single question I ask him. I don't see how you can seriously think that I am scum, yet seem to have no interest at all in what I post.

[VitaminR]

Rory, if you think such posts are evidence of me being passive, then yes? You could perhaps point these things out and provide some sort of snarky and insulting one line commentary? You seem perfectly capable of this.

Personally, I would also appreciate it if you could react to some of the posts in which I've asked you questions directly.

And I never argued that just having fewer posts makes you more passive. It was that in conjunction with the other things. But, frankly, I'm not interested in a discussion of who is more passive. I was just annoyed that you called me passive and semi-lurking when I've been waiting for you to respond to my questions for some time and you keep ignoring them.

[VitaminR]

Unvote, vote: Mumm-Ra

Currently on page 5.

Scum: Rory the Roman, VitaminR, Twistedspoon

Yay CES! Vote Rory please. Thank you.

[VitaminR]

CES, please do that again and return with different conclusions. Thanks!

[VitaminR]

CES, you're not replacing into my game and leading a mislynch on me Day 1 in my first game back. Knock it off.

[VitaminR]

Am I town?

Who knows?

[VitaminR]

Just know that, if you're town, I will hold a grudge.

But let's hear your theory then. (Also, what is the scum tell in #250?)

[VitaminR]

CES, let's pretend we've gone through your whole spiel for a couple of pages and that you've had your fun. Now, content, please.

[VitaminR]

Copper, fine. You've managed to pick out two quotes in which I take the attack on me too personally, but you're kinda misrepresenting both. I grant that maybe I got too frustrated (I do this as town, btw, which is exactly why I use a more conservative voting strategy). The first one just leads into an explanation of why I've settled on this playstyle, though. I was maybe a little too ticked off at the time, but I was just saying that I'm not using this strategy randomly or because I was "caught not voting," but because, over time, I've realised that it's a good strategy for me. I wasn't really trying to appeal to seniority (I certainly wouldn't consider myself a better player than you or anyone else in this game).

The interaction with Rory I've already explained. I was frustrated that Rory called me semi-lurking and passive, when it'd been hard to get him to answer my questions. But anyway, even on the basis of that quote, it's hardly fair to say I called Rory more passive because he has fewer posts than me. Of course that doesn't mean anything. It was that in conjunction with the other things.

FYI, CES has played with me, though he never reads me correctly.

[VitaminR]

@Twisted. You won't find a single more logic person then CES on this board.

This is actually pretty true. CES only seems like he's trolling, but there's always content behind it.

[VitaminR]

Is it standard for scum to have daytalk now? Is there any good theory on how this affects scum play?

[VitaminR]

Meh, I tend to believe Amrun here. It's how I read her post initially too.

[VitaminR]

PZ, who do you think is scum?

[VitaminR]

CES, describe to me how the Copper-votes are similar in your impression.

[VitaminR]

One of Rory is mykonian? Cool. I have played with you for the record. That actually makes me feel slightly better about that slot.

[VitaminR]

I'm really liking CES' entry into the game - I think he's wrong about VitaminR, though. I know he's his brother and should read him much better than anyone else, but I'm still not that confident in CES' Day 1 ability, whoever that is. I am liking how he is playing - it reminds me very much of his town game in scumchat vengeful and upick games.

He's stirring it up and dropping seemingly arbitrary reads, and pushing hard on those he picks as scum. It seems like a reckless, unthoughtful way to play the game, but I think it is his way of collecting reads. CES seems more lurky and less engaging as scum, which I witnessed first-hand in Mr. Flay's Texas Justice game.

I really like this post. I'm starting to feel the same way about CES (especially the reasoning he provided was very much a CES-town sort of thing).

Pretty sure Hoopla and twisted are town also.

Unvote

I need to step back and have a think about this game.

He was notably slow to vote at Goofbash (along with Patrick and chamber, The Couchtm). It certainly wasn't a bad playstyle in that environment and it makes a whole lot of sense for him to at the very least start this game playing similarly. Personally, I think his conservatism here is a slight scum tell because I'd expect Vittown to see that this level of passiveness doesn't really work all that well on the forums; you need to prod and poke to make the scums come out.

That's probably true. I was just very much in that mindset still. Honestly, I wasn't really planning on being that conservative with my vote again.

[VitaminR]

I really want PZ's scum reads. It's bothering me that his vote hasn't moved in like a week.

[VitaminR]

Really, muffin? That's enough to warrant a vote? If you take a moment to look past the bad English, he's not really saying anything strange...

Also, PZ, why are you so sure NS is scum? Having looked at his games and listening to other players' impressions of him, it doesn't seem like his scum meta is that different from his town meta. He seems pretty scummy no matter his alignment. You've played with NS before, right? Are you better able to read him?

[VitaminR]

I suppose. I grant you that it could appear that way, but he seems like a relative newbie. The use of the word "scum tell" doesn't need to mean anything.

[VitaminR]

I think he's trying to say that he didn't think you were being serious when you said one of them had to be scum, because it'd be strange for you to be so sure about your Hoopla read. So he assumed you did it to get a reaction. And he's just using "scum tell" to mean anything that someone uses to tell them that someone is scum. He's divorcing it from its more standard behavioural use. I think?

[VitaminR]

Leaving...VitaminR, who is apparently around to feel out zMuffin but not to vote. His 429 in particular is absolutely begging for a vote. One wonders if he's feeling encouraged by Hoopla's townread for inaction.

Oh noes! You caught me again. I am not voting currently because I'm trying to get a feel for this game again. My reads were a little shook up by the fact that most of what I thought was scummy about Rory can be attributed to myko being one of the heads and strong town reads on Hoopla and CES. I feel like I have enough good town reads now that I should be able to make a good guess as to who is scum. So I've been reading up on the various players in this game, including you, that I am uncertain of.

I didn't vote muffin in that post because I think muffin is town.

VitaminR: If you were a compulsive dayvig, who would you shoot?

You.

(Actually maybe not. I'm genuinely unsure currently.)

[VitaminR]

CES, assume that Amrun and I are town for a moment. Who do you think is scum?

Also, stop being annoying.

[VitaminR]

Ah, if only you realised I'm town, we could be scumhunting brothers. You're so obviously town.

[VitaminR]

buddy much?

Really, twisted? That seems a little easy for you.

[VitaminR]

Well, Fenchurch is town. Alright, whatever:

Vote: Copper

You've been misrepresenting me all game and seem to find EVERY SINGLE THING I post scummy. You're too good of a player for that (and yes, CES, I'm bussing my buddy, thank you).

Hoopla, CES, and zMuffin are all town. Twisted is probably town (though I don't like how his shift towards me in the last few pages), Amrun probably is too. Rory and malpa, who knows. Zito is probably one of Copper's buddies unless he has a great story about his NS vote.

[VitaminR]

Btw, zMuffin, please make a note of Hoopla's #377. I'll likely be lynched before you ever get to lynch Hoopla and, when I flip town, you should realise that it makes no sense for Hooplascum to discredit CES's read on me. She has no reason to close off that mislynch.

[VitaminR]

PZ, this was what I asked:

Also, PZ, why are you so sure NS is scum? Having looked at his games and listening to other players' impressions of him, it doesn't seem like his scum meta is that different from his town meta. He seems pretty scummy no matter his alignment. You've played with NS before, right? Are you better able to read him?

Try again.

[VitaminR]

I don't do meta.

You just would always lynch a player whose natural playstyle looks scummy?

But anyway, I don't want to get into a discussion about meta. You still haven't really told me why you think NS/malp is scummy.

[VitaminR]

Vitamin we have this cool iso feature, give it a whirl.

Oh, really?

I can evaluate NS for myself. I want to know why you think he's scum to get an insight into your thinking. Don't see why you're being so stubborn about it. Just a few lines will do.

[VitaminR]

My reads were a little shook up by the fact that most of what I thought was scummy about Rory can be attributed to myko being one of the heads and strong town reads on Hoopla and CES.

I think I'll allow this... But as soon as you start calling me Shotty2 I'm going to lynch you.

Good, I didn't mean it in a negative way. myko's style has its advantages. And anyway, us Dutchies have to stick together (seem to remember that myko is Dutch?). \buddying

[VitaminR]

FYI, I'm not voting Amrun today. Willing to lynch any of Rory, Copper, and PZ.

Also, I never really said that I thought not voting was a scum tell. What I thought was a scum tell was that Rory appeared to be helping build a case against PZ and NS without voting when he had no better vote candidate. That can be a way for scum to push a wagon without leaving their fingerprints on it. But anyway.

I am still reading the whole thread.

This vote is only to reflect the impression I have so far; usually I don't like to be told what to do, but I guess you are right Cooper.

Vote:CES

malp, why do you think CES is scum? In one or two lines.

[VitaminR]

Hm, I don't want to lynch Copper as much any more.

Unvote, Vote: Papa Zito

[VitaminR]

Would also be willing to try to push a Rory counterwagon.

[VitaminR]

Oh yes, I'm willing to bus Copper, but not Amrun. CES, don't make me start doubting that you're town. I know you are capable of thinking about a game rather than trolling it. Please do so.

[VitaminR]

Like Copper's getting lynched. Come on.

Whatever, I just want you to play the game more seriously, because I'm pretty sure you're town. I know you're smart enough to know that it's spectacularly unlikely that you're actually right.

[VitaminR]

Muffin, my vote for PZ has never been based on inactivity. His voting behaviour is off. He's been on NS/malp for ages, but can't seem to provide a half-way decent explanation for his certainty. I don't understand it and I also feel like town-PZ moves his vote more.

[VitaminR]

Well, that was my thinking at first, which is exactly why I've been questioning him about his reads and his NS vote. But he hasn't been able to provide a coherent story about his voting. Inactivity doesn't explain that. It definitely affects his voting behaviour, but it shouldn't prevent him from having a coherent thought process about who's scum that I can understand.

[VitaminR]

Hm, that muffin vote isn't great.

FOS: Rory

[VitaminR]

I think malpascp is town.

This.

Copper, why not join me with a PZ vote? We could get try to get a little counterwagon going.

[VitaminR]

Well, I was totally right about Amrun. Um, yay? Copper, I'm disappointed that you stayed away from the PZ wagon only because of me. Read up on some of my games or something. If I'm not going to be able to convince you that I'm town, you should at least realise it is a mistake to have this much confidence in a scumread on me.

There's no way I'm voting CES today. CES is the obvious lynch out of these three because of his playstyle. If there's any scum in these three (which I doubt), it's not definitely not CES. It'd be scum shooting themselves in the foot.

[VitaminR]

Vote: Hoopla

It's just very obvious to me that CES is town. Muffin and Hoopla I also have strong town reads on, but I could see Hoopla fooling me.

[VitaminR]

To be honest, I had not given any thought to who would be on the nomination list, so I had no expectations whatsoever. My initial reaction was just of annoyance, really. CES, Hoopla, and muffin are my strongest town reads. I guess my feeling about it hasn't really changed? I still think it's most likely that all three are town.

[VitaminR]

Okay, well in #460 I noticed that Vitamin names the exact nomination list as his townreads:

Hoopla, CES, and zMuffin are all town.

So I was thinking it could be a sign that he had a hand in the nomination, perhaps he thought that he was putting up the most pro-town looking players, or perhaps he didn't realise why; but then it's also possible that the scumteam simply saw this and it influenced them.

Yeah, this kinda freaked me out a little bit. But I doubt scum cares that much about my particular town list.

[VitaminR]

Probably Hoopla. She's who I would be most afraid of as scum.

[VitaminR]

look, I think all 3 are town, but I'd be willing to keep alive whoever agrees with my reads the most. I'd rather have a townie who I wouldn't have to compete against than the converse

Wow man. That didn't seem very townish to me...

Maybe I misunderstood it, but you want someone that agrees you? Just that? Ok...

Yeah, this is quite odd.

(Though I think twisted-scum would say it.)

[VitaminR]

I

don't

think twisted-scum would say it.

[VitaminR]

Hmm, PZ looks town to me today. This is worrisome.

[VitaminR]

Copper trying to subtly push towards a CES lynch. Noted.

I am going to stick with my Hoopla vote, I think. I had strong town reads on all three and I think Hoopla is the most likely to be fooling me. Though I kinda hate to lynch one of the only players with a correct town-read on me.

[VitaminR]

As we've said before, over-thinking the even day lynches is a surefire way to have the town drown itself in pointless speculation. Just think, "If I KNEW one of these people were scum, who would it be?" And don't

dwell

on it. In the likely case of an all-town list, this is pointless wankery. In the possible case of scum on the list, it's almost impossible to guess whether they played it straight or not with three targets who are mostly equally lynchable. Just pick your biggest scumread independent of the list and vote.

Copper, I feel like this paragraph really encourages a CES-lynch without it being transparent. Hence the subtle.

[VitaminR]

It could be meaningless, but if you turn out to be scum, the attempt is important to note.

[VitaminR]

What would a Copper scum flip indicate here? Or like, what was important to note and why?

What CES said. I got a strong "you guys are supposed to be lynching CES, like I expected you to"-vibe off that post.

[VitaminR]

proddodgery

I have little to say whilst the lynch pool is still restricted.

CES is my fave choice since he writes least even though he is probtown like the rest etc.

Why are you being so scummy today? I had you down as solid town before this.

[VitaminR]

Eh, part of me doesn't really buy Hoopla's sacrificial play. It feels designed to buy her pro-town cred.

[VitaminR]

I'm here. Would support a muffin lynch also, I guess.

[VitaminR]

FFS. VitR is almost certain scum. He's following the game enough to immediately see that he's being prodded, yet only comments the bare minimum on the current situation, and is totally vague and non-commital.

What? I read the game actively. I just didn't have anything to add. Then I posted when I got prodded to show that I was there. I was not vague and non-committal. I indicated that I could go for a zMuffin lynch also. The "I guess" was just because I wasn't particularly excited about either lynch.

[VitaminR]

Vote: Copper

[VitaminR]

a) It was totally non-commital. With four hours to deadline, you needed to be more clear whether you were going to switch or not, what factors were affecting your decision. A one-liner doesn't cut it. Saying "I could switch" but then not doing so, and not answering my question just left me hanging.
b) I asked you to expand on your comment, but you wait until after the deadline to do so.

That's fair, but I didn't actually realise it was so close to deadline. I had kinda forgotten about the deadline, so I thought the discussion was whether we could get six votes together for a lynch. Read my post that way and you'll see that you're misreading the tone of it completely.

[VitaminR]

Why does everyone say that I only say nonsense? It's anoying to be ignored.

Vote:CES

in addition, this CES vote is a huge towntell.

At the most CES is conf. town. At the least a CES vote would cause big controversy and attention; not something scu would want

scum would stay miles away from CES after hoopla's flip

conclusion: malpa is just a townie who genuinely suspects CES. why he does is pointless and irrelevant, but he's town

This.

I'm voting Copper for multiple reasons (though I was voting Copper towards the end of the day Day 1 also, it's not like this vote is coming out of nowhere). I didn't like his case on me Day 1, in which everything I did seemed scummy to him. And his pushing the CES lynch yesterday didn't sit well with me.

[VitaminR]

I'm pretty sure Rory and Copper are scum at this point. The third scum is more of a wildcard. But that doesn't really matter anyway.

[VitaminR]

the overall impression I get from your play

vitamin

is that you're trying to please evreyone or are trying to make as few enemies as possible

My impression is that you've been trying to avoid making confrontations and you've been almost

too nice

at times

For example when players have a problem you almost apologise or blame it on your self rather than stand your ground and cause tension

I do this

always

. Read any other game of mine and you will see me doing exactly the same. If I think an accusation is fair, I will acknowledge that. It seems completely dishonest and self-serving to pretend that people cannot have legitimate suspicions of a town player.

I don't see why you kept them secret

We went over this at the time. I was trying get a reaction not influenced by pressure.

PZ read gut-town to me Day 2. And I had a creeping suspicion Day 1 that I was wrong about him anyway, because he read town to me in the first few pages.

[VitaminR]

Well, twisted's really town.

[VitaminR]

That wasn't sarcasm. I wavered a bit Day 2 because I thought you were scummy wrt to your CES vote, but I'm now pretty much sure you're town.

I forget why my Copper attitude changed there. Let me go reconstruct that.
I just gave my reasons for voting Copper. They're not gut-based.

If you think it's a flimsy reason, I can't do anything about that. It was my reason at the time. Sooo...

[VitaminR]

It was this post:

We are not satisfied with an Amrun lynch today. Given the amount of legwork we've put into showing flaws in Vitamin, malpascp/NS, Rory, and PZ, we are not prepared to bet today's lynch on Amrun's most recent flailing. Amrun's early game pressure that was rightfully aimed at NS was on point and, given some varied experience with her as a player prior to this game, we were both in agreement in terms of a gut town read.

This isn't to say that we wouldn't be wrong, but this is to say that we will not be joining this wagon as of right now. There are too many other players that we'd prefer to see lynched, and we're not prepared to concede our reads to the contrary majority.

Seemed really town to me at the time. In hindsight, he would have known that Amrun was town, so it's probably not so significant.

[VitaminR]

Ninjas:

It was this post:

We are not satisfied with an Amrun lynch today. Given the amount of legwork we've put into showing flaws in Vitamin, malpascp/NS, Rory, and PZ, we are not prepared to bet today's lynch on Amrun's most recent flailing. Amrun's early game pressure that was rightfully aimed at NS was on point and, given some varied experience with her as a player prior to this game, we were both in agreement in terms of a gut town read.

This isn't to say that we wouldn't be wrong, but this is to say that we will not be joining this wagon as of right now. There are too many other players that we'd prefer to see lynched, and we're not prepared to concede our reads to the contrary majority.

Seemed really town to me at the time. In hindsight, he would have known that Amrun was town, so it's probably not so significant.

This post is your grounds for a copper-lynch?

Sure he could've known Amrun might have flipped town, but there's no way of telling if he's scum or town, genuine or not from this post
It's just one big null-tell

No, this was why I changed my mind about Copper Day 1 and went to a PZ vote.

[VitaminR]

Here's a fairly condensed case that summarises why I think Copper could be scum.

There were a few ways in which his attack on me felt unfair in a way that was off. You should examine his ISO to get what I mean, but this post illustrates it well:

I'm sure you can all come up with counterexamples, but look again at the gap between Twisted and VitaminR. When mentioning the lack of vote from both of them, Twisted (who we explicitly said was "okay for now") jumped and said "hey, I'm not voting! I shall do so now!" VitaminR dragged his heels, and waited until he had a reason to explain his lack of voting before voting. It's also telling that he said "time to stop being non-transparent". Yes, we did read when you gave your reasons. But as a townie, you would have said "Well, my gambit is over now" or something of the like. Instead, we're treated to post hoc reasoning and various attempts at self-justification ("

I think I know how to play town

," "

You post less than me, you can't call me scum

") because a townie told you to vote and you really don't like townies telling you what to do.

The bolded quotes are misrepresentations of my posts that I corrected, but Copper kept repeating. Also, the theory that I would declare that I wasn't voting and later fabricate a reason for it is ridiculous. Making up a vote is not that hard. I just feels like his reasoning for thinking I'm scum was fabricated from what I was doing rather than sincere.

To that end, we're feeling better about Papa Zito. Every single one of our strong townreads was on the Amrun wagon. We didn't approve of the wagon ourselves, but were hesitant to join the D1 Papa Zito counter - as Muffin rightly pointed out, VitaminR championing it was reason enough to give us cold feet. In the end, the wagon swelled to include some very shady characters. I'm not sure why scum would want to stop an Amrun lynch, but Zito almost certainly has scum votes on him, and it doesn't seem like a bus.

The reasoning here cannot be genuine. Just me championing it is enough to give you cold feet? If you're a good player, which Copper is, you should know that you will be wrong about people (and you should know that scum bus scum in strange ways). I don't believe that he wouldn't just evaluate the wagon on its merits.

As we've said before, over-thinking the even day lynches is a surefire way to have the town drown itself in pointless speculation. Just think, "If I KNEW one of these people were scum, who would it be?" And don't

dwell

on it. In the likely case of an all-town list, this is pointless wankery. In the possible case of scum on the list, it's almost impossible to guess whether they played it straight or not with three targets who are mostly equally lynchable. Just pick your biggest scumread independent of the list and vote.

This felt like pushing for a CES lynch without wanting to be seen as doing it. (And it doesn't matter whether he was overtly pushing for the CES lynch elsewhere). This really feels like an attempt at manipulation.

[VitaminR]

then you changed your mind about PZ (gut) and went back to copper (because you didn't like the case he made on you)
Is this correct?

Yes.

If PZ flips scum then your shaky gut-based vote switches on and off him could look very much like a bus, but we'll see

Whatever, I change my mind a lot.

[VitaminR]

Unvote, Vote: Fenchurch

[VitaminR]

VitaminR, just how serious was your vote on me? You were awfully quick to follow CES on to us, but your wordless Fenchurch swap seems at odds with the supposed conviction of your vote. We also can't help but notice that, as Fenchurch has become more assertive about you being scum than us, you have switched your vote.

It was serious at the time. But I've changed my mind. Setting out the case against you for twisted made me read over your ISO in detail and it didn't seem as strong as it was in my head. There were a few posts that seemed pretty town.

I also read over Fenchurch's ISO and meta and realised I'd sort of mentally pegged her as town because of Hoopla. There's nothing superscummy in her ISO, but it doesn't really look like her town-meta either. And I do indeed think her conviction about me rings false.

I'm now pretty sure that Fenchurch and Rory are two of our scum. Third is a wildcard. Could be you, could be PZ, could be muffin. Maybe even malp.

[VitaminR]

No reasoning VitaminR?

Twisted's analizys really made me notice certain things. I made a fast re-read of the thread and I realized how scummy VitaminR acted sometimes, and still acts. I am not so sure about twisted's read on PZ. I will place my vote here, but I'll always get happy if a CES lynch becomes a possibility, for the reasons I always stated.

Vote:VitaminR

Pre-EDIT: not anymore twist. not anymore... (MUHAHAHAHA)

This kinda looks like a coached vote. Or maybe you are just sheeping.

[VitaminR]

Unvote, vote: VitaminR

CES, you suck at reading me. I seriously am starting to think you should reconsider your right to vote me, if you can never ever read me correctly.

[VitaminR]

Eh, Copper is still probably scum, actually. Maybe Copper, Fenchurch, Rory.

Unvote, Vote: Copper

That post was all "Oh, I am going to seem reasonable and discuss some interesting things, while mainly implying in every possible way that VitaminR is scum." Copper, just vote me. Let's get it over with. Stop hiding behind your Rory vote and slowly building up to it in your scummy way and just vote me.

I'm pretty much resigned to the fact that you guys are going to mislynch me. Everyone's doing a sort of mental PoE on the basis of town reads. But guess what? No one ever reads me as town (I may be slightly frustrated about this). People suspect me on this basis all the time and then start to re-interpret my posts as scummy, because it just feels right that I would be scum. No one has really presented a case of any significance (with the exception perhaps of Copper's "scum would dig in their heels," but twisted's #901 is very very weak and Fenchurch is being opportunistic with one post that looks a little non-committal if you ignore the fact that I didn't realise the deadline was so close).

Vitamin has been saying stuff like that all game. I called him town D1, but the continued need to affirm that he's town and certain people are reading him correctly or incorrectly, + PoE from stronger town reads, made me waver on this.

Overall, I agree that PZ scum implicates Vitamin scum, and not just because of VCA. There's links in Vitamin's ISO that make a whole lot more sense if they're partners.

I'll read back over PZ/Vitamin/Rory today. Might be a better idea to go after PZ for information purposes, now that I think about it.

Though this worries me. a little bit. This is a bit "well, I had him as town, but, now that he's a viable lynch, maybe I'm changing my mind?" But eh.

[VitaminR]

Also, CES's suspicions of me hinge on Copper being scum, which is completely idiotic. I mean, just generally, it's silly that people are even really taking scum associations into consideration, considering that we have no single scum flip.

[VitaminR]

I'll read back over PZ/Vitamin/Rory today. Might be a better idea to go after PZ for information purposes, now that I think about it.

Didn't you just do that and conclude that it didn't make sense (on kinda a whatever basis, but still)? What kind of reading back are you going to do?

[VitaminR]

Also, Feeeenchurch, where are you?

[VitaminR]

Fenchurch, please outline why you think I'm scum.

[VitaminR]

Fenchurch is actually probably a townie. A soon to be disappointed townie.

Here are my responses (please excuse their snarky nature - you actually seem like a nice person, but my impending mislynch is making it so that I can't seem to approach this game with anything but a vague sense of ennui any more).

Overall, it's gut, based on your play as a whole.

It's depressing how often people have a gut scum read of me when I'm town.

fallback to meta-defence

Oh hey, I just did that again!

Specifics: early lack of votes and reads

You didn't seem to think this was particularly scummy at the time (never mind, it seems you actually sort of did). But it's kinda true I didn't have strong reads early. I have strong reads now, though! Please revisit them after you kill me.

lynching Hoopla for weak reasoning in my opinion. confusion surrounding deadline

She was my weakest town read. How is that weak reasoning?
"Confusion surrounding deadline"? Is it scummy to be confused and/or forget deadlines now?

* in #255 your conclusion on forest_air doesn't seem to make sense. forest said something which sounded like she didn't understand the set-up, but because she then claimed she did understand the set-up (but without clarifying her early point) you took it as a null tell.

I said it was null because she had no reason to say that she did understand the set-up if there was a townie reason for her being confused.

* anticipation for being called out for buddying in #492

This is a scum tell? I didn't know that. Will avoid it in future.

* in #701 that you claimed to be "freaked out" by the nomination list matching your townreads, but you didn't comment on it until I asked. The response seems un-genuine. I think it's possible that you had a hand in the nominations, and unwittingly chose the players that seemed most town to you.

I didn't comment on it because it didn't seem relevant to anyone else that I was freaked out? I mean, who cares? And how would I unwittingly choose the players that seem the most town to me? Do you think I would be unaware of my stance on the nominees? If anything, if I had been scum, I'm pretty sure I would have posted a "Wow, those are all my strongest town reads! That's pretty freaky, you guys."

Really it's a lack of anything especially pro-town... your actions and comments seem "off" and don't seem to make sense or come from a townie viewpoint.

See my first reaction.

[VitaminR]

I'm pretty much resigned to the fact that you guys are going to mislynch me. Everyone's doing a sort of mental PoE on the basis of town reads. But guess what? No one ever reads me as town (I may be slightly frustrated about this). People suspect me on this basis all the time and then start to re-interpret my posts as scummy, because it just feels right that I would be scum.

Btw, this does pretty much exactly describe Fenchurch's case on me. But, I know, not a legit defence.

CES, why do you think I'm scum? Don't say because of Copper, because if that's your only reason, you should be voting Copper.

[VitaminR]

PZ, what do you think of Copper? You've hardly mentioned him.

Also, malp, tell me more about your opinion of me. What do you think of my posts today?

[VitaminR]

I think it took you too long to shake off your conservative approach. Too many town reads early on (I would have expected e.g. some more skepticism towards Hoopla since she's good at this game).

The whole me not voting thing Day 1 is just a shaky fallback for lack of a clear case against me. And I declare people town and go back on it all the time. That's hardly part of my scum meta.

It's puzzling me that you can't read the sincerity in my frustration today, btw.

P.S. even if it was just because of Copper, voting Copper at this point in time seems fairly pointless and I wouldn't waste my main weapon on such an endeavour. Not a good argument.

Copper is scum, I'm not. Voting him is not pointless.

[VitaminR]

It's puzzling me that you can't read the sincerity in my frustration today, btw.

We both know you can fake it. If you can pull it off face-to-face, then certainly you can pull it off here, no?

Dude, come on. I wouldn't be trying to manipulate you this actively if I were scum. In endgame, yes, absolutely. But not Day 2. I'm not that cheap.

You're like the only one here who knows how weak the case on me truly is (all of these things I would do both as town and as scum - with maybe the exception of the voting thing which was more specific to this game and how I approached it after Goofbash - and people get "gut feelings" I'm scum regardless of my alignment all the time).

[VitaminR]

PZ, what do you think of Copper? You've hardly mentioned him.

I'm entirely underwhelmed by both of our hydras. I'm additionally suspicious of Copper for that moonbeams wagon analysis. However, dead malp is my priority.

So, does that mean you think both are scum? Do you think we have a Copper/Rory/malp scum team?

I'm not going to follow onto vitaminR. His latest responses to CES seem truthfull, and I would expect them from townie-vitamin in such a situation.

Yay!

[VitaminR]

My issue with Twisted's case on Zito is this; he seems to use the same reason to clear malpa and condemn Zito: their votes for "innocents". If malpa-scum wouldn't want to draw attention, then why wouldn't Zito-scum be concerned about the same thing?

Oh wow, scum alert. Maybe I was too quick to declare you a townie. I feel like tou are being purposefully dim here. Malp and PZ clearly have very different experience levels that make a massive difference in terms of how their actions should be interpreted.

Maybe you are scum with PZ and Copper. That would make some sense.

[VitaminR]

Copper, why are you voting Rory instead of me? I thought I had missed some change in your thinking, but I can't seem to find it.

[VitaminR]

Copper, why are you voting Rory instead of me? I thought I had missed some change in your thinking, but I can't seem to find it.

[VitaminR]

Yes, keep CES! I'm still here.

[VitaminR]

I still think VitR is scum. He declared a town-read on Amrun fairly early Day 1 (#264, #369) and probably found it hard to turn around on that when she became the leading wagon at the end of Day 1, especially since he was a suspect himself earlier in the Day, and would have probably come under more scrutiny for a switch.

I read Amrun as town. That's it. I said that several times Day 1 and tried to get a counterwagon going by voting Copper and then PZ, but nothing came of it (though the PZ wagon came close). And I was right, like I'm right about you being scum.

@Vitamin,
So. Let's just say I believe you're town but we're not lynching Copper today. What now?

Fenchurch is my scum #2, so would be up for lynching her as well. Her reasons for thinking I'm scum are flimsy and constantly changing. She seems like a player who is hard to read as scum, because she's consistent and reasonable, but I don't think her attack on me is sincere. I don't buy that she wouldn't have doubts, considering my somewhat erratic and heavily gut-based play today. She's just been dispassionately and quite reasonably saying that she thinks I'm scum. Doesn't ring true to me.

But, realistically, what's going to happen is either I vote PZ, because he's my number three suspect and makes sense in a lot of scum-pairings and I don't want to get mislynched, or I'm going to get lynched myself while shouting that Fenchurch and Copper are scum and that you guys should revisit my reads after I die.

[VitaminR]

No need to replace me just yet.

Glad PZ flipped scum. Means my reads aren't totally off. BBMolla is the lynch for tomorrow, in my mind. He makes a ton of sense as PZ's partner. The way Copper stayed off the PZ wagon Day because my presence on it was giving him "cold feet" was very strange, but it makes real sense if they're scumbuddies (the PZ wagon was getting really close to overtaking the Amrun wagon). The way PZ continuously hovered around the 3rd/4th spot on his scumlist is also compatible with a scumbuddy theory.

Otherwise agree with Quilford that Fenchurch declaring me town for being on a few PZ wagons is odd. I totally bus as scum. But I think that BBMolla/Copper is a safer lynch.

[VitaminR]

And I agree that zMuffin is probably the lynch for today. I want to give him a chance to air his thoughts, though. I'm keen to get his response to the PZ-flip.

[VitaminR]

I would encourage everyone to read the following Copper-posts on PZ. You can even ignore my evaluations below. Tell me this doesn't scream scumbuddy to you.

I'm not opposed to the Rory wagon, but the timing is leaving me skeptical. I mean, we have forest_air, Papa Zito, Rory, and NobodySpecial who have all had a recent (or sometimes longstanding) lack of engagement. It's very likely there's at least one scum in that list, but placing Rory over the others seems a little arbitrary. While, as Fenchurch points out, he's been following some silly line of thought, the jury is still out whether it's a scum PM or simply face-saving ego that's to blame.

VitaminR is scum. TwistedSpoon and Fenchurch are town. While Rory's posting style makes him look scummy, we're not comfortable calling him scum. There's a good chance of at least one scum within the flaked slots of Zito, malspecp, and CES. And it's almost certainly not CES on a VitaminR scumflip; it'd be a very audacious scum gambit to try to get a Copper lynch after we were shown to be so unambiguously right. Muffin and Amrun are weaker town reads. Our guts have Hoopla as town as well, but Day Two will be the real test for that.

Twice listing him in a list of "probably one scum here." Nothing really incriminatory, but compatible with scumbuddy theory.

Three things we made note of that deserve discussion:

1) malpascp is thus far the opposite of NS. Whereas NS exercised his vote with impunity, malpascp seems content with telling us how he feels about this game rather than showing us with his vote. We can understand wanting a full re-read, but at some point you just need to vote. Preferably in your next post.

2) Reading over Rory in isolation reveals something peculiar. We don't see much mention of Amrun anywhere. This seems extremely odd given that Amrun has arguably been the most controversial player in the game so far. He answers a couple of forgettable questions here and here, but these are almost entirely about Hoopla, not Amrun. The only other things I can see him addressing or discussing Amrun consist of negligible little fluffy things that never amount to much. Examples of this are here and here. We want to put this out there for input, because, prior to reading Rory in isolation, we were surprised at how much he has managed to avoid the now two-time highest vote-getter in this game.

3) PZ is still seemingly invisible here. He's been giving everyone a hard time over how he shouldn't be called a lurker, but there's just something

not there

about his posts. Let us be more specific:

Papa NoShow

Ummmmmmm I'm not getting the VitaminR wagon shift. Somebody help me.

I'm really scratching my head at these last two wagon shifts.

Posting so I don't get replaced. Apparently weekends aren't allowed round these parts.

I'll do realposting tonight.

Not seeing any reason to move my vote atm. All the apologists are just lulz.

Don't think I missed anything significant.

Also also I'm not quite sure what Hoopla is doing or if I like it.

All that said I think I'm at a point where I need to reread the game a bit.

Also, PZ, why are you so sure NS is scum?

Why are you so sure he's not? Also you realize there's a replacement in that slot right?

I'm rereading the game btw.

Vitamin we have this cool iso feature, give it a whirl.

Still need to reread but I got distracted by that linked game. Dat playerlist wowza.

Notice the amount of uncertainty, the needing to reread over, the headscratching, and the just general confusion. To be fair, these quotes are put together in such a way to paint a specific picture, but that doesn't change the fact that PZ has gone from him having a significant presence in the game to seemingly kicking his feet up and letting the game happen to him.

Same list thing. Note also how wishy-washy Copper is about PZ. One other thing that strikes me about this is that the general uncertainty in his posts is something a scumbuddy is much more likely to notice than a townie.

But let's get to the good stuff.

We are not satisfied with an Amrun lynch today. Given the amount of legwork we've put into showing flaws in Vitamin, malpascp/NS, Rory, and PZ, we are not prepared to bet today's lynch on Amrun's most recent flailing. Amrun's early game pressure that was rightfully aimed at NS was on point and, given some varied experience with her as a player prior to this game, we were both in agreement in terms of a gut town read.

This isn't to say that we wouldn't be wrong, but this is to say that we will not be joining this wagon as of right now. There are too many other players that we'd prefer to see lynched, and we're not prepared to concede our reads to the contrary majority.

Here Copper makes it clear that he won't join an Amrun lynch because there are better candidates. But when the PZ wagon happened, he stayed away from it completely.

He later provides this rationale:

To that end, we're feeling better about Papa Zito. Every single one of our strong townreads was on the Amrun wagon. We didn't approve of the wagon ourselves, but were hesitant to join the D1 Papa Zito counter - as Muffin rightly pointed out, VitaminR championing it was reason enough to give us cold feet. In the end, the wagon swelled to include some very shady characters. I'm not sure why scum would want to stop an Amrun lynch, but Zito almost certainly has scum votes on him, and it doesn't seem like a bus.

Does this make sense to anyone? Remember that Copper claimed to have a strong town read on Amrun. So it's not like he was uncomfortable about me pushing a counterwagon. He wanted a counterwagon. Put yourself in Copper's place and think about whether that would make sense to you. Consider also that I was the first vote on PZ, so it wasn't like my vote was a huge determinant of the relationship between me and PZ (when I voted him, it really didn't mean much).

[VitaminR]

Also, malp is definitely town for putting a fourth vote on PZ Day 1. That almost made the PZ wagon a viable counterwagon. Rory's third vote looks good too, but is probably less significant.

[VitaminR]

Vote: BBMolla

[VitaminR]

Nah, I don't think Rory is scum. Nor malp. I'd be up for lynching either BBMolla or Fenchurch today.

[VitaminR]

Scratch that, I'm not supersure about Rory. But I don't think he's the best lynch today.

[VitaminR]

Reeally prefer a BBMolla lynch over a Fenchurch one today. BBMolla/Copper is definitely scum, while there's an outside chance Fenchurch is town.

Twisted (and everyone else not voting BB), here's why you should be convinced that BBMolla/Copper is scum:
- Stayed off the PZ wagon when it almost became viable towards the end of Day 1 despite claiming to think Amrun was town and EXPLICITLY saying he was looking for a better wagon.
- Always had PZ around third on his scumlist, PZ did the same for Copper (Copper kept saying "there's probably scum in malp, Rory, and PZ, you guys" and PZ said something like "yeah, I don't like either of our hydras, but I really want to lynch malp first" a couple of times). This is CLASSIC scumbuddy behaviour.
- Neither BBMolla nor Copper have looked really town (see BBMolla's #1044, his opinions after reading the game - basically null on everyone, but hey, despite having no opinions, I'm pretty sure PZ is the lynch for today - and his vote today).

[VitaminR]

Fenchurch is my scum #2, so would be up for lynching her as well.

what has changed here then vitamin?

Um, nothing has changed. She's still my #2. The only thing I said is that I think there is an outside chance she is town, while I'm certain BBMolla/Copper is scum because of the PZ-flip. I still think they are our scumteam.

[VitaminR]

Now as for Fenchurch-BBMolla: It's christmas! My scumteam is there, with BBmolla as this slots nr1 scum, who is going to get hammered by Fenchurch no matter if Fenchurch is actually scum or not.

Which is why I have to disappoint you Quilford: I'm not going to hammer Fenchurch, and I'm mostly agreeing with Vitamins reasons: it's simply more likely that Molla is scum.

This. Exactly this.

[VitaminR]

Called it! Though I'm kinda sad I wasn't actually on that lynch.

Anywho, this game is basically won. All we need to do is never lynch two of malp, Quil, and TS and we can't lose.

[VitaminR]

You guys, how could you have lynched BBMolla without me? I put so much effort into convincing people he was scum.
I would have hammered on sight if I had gotten here just a little earlier.

I feel pretty good about my reads this game. I think I only voted scum after switching to PZ Day 1 (with the exception of our "nights"). I called Fenchurch-Copper-PZ before the PZ lynch (though my reads varied wildly that day before settling on that).

Well-played everyone. The scum too. This is a tough set-up.

[VitaminR]

Twisted, it was really obvious to me that you were town somehow, just from having played a brief Marathon game with you in which we were both scum. You were just very genuine in your thought processes?

Quilford, you did a good job replacing into this game. You got a good handle on the game very quickly.

[VitaminR]

Good game scumbags. That'll learn you for nominating a bunch of obv-townies. Well done to the townies who survived - you all played solid and important roles in securing the victory for town, but I think the outcome was mostly determined by scum's choices. In a pseudo-nightless game you really can't afford to create too many obv-townies. If this were to be run again, I think meta would shift to encourage scum to take risks nominating themselves.

On the back of this performance by scum, it's easy to see how crippling it can be to box yourself via PoE. This setups rewards scum who are proactive and try to look town, rather than scum who are reactive and try to avoid looking like scum. It's too early to tell if the setup is balanced, but I suspect it might be slightly town-sided - I'm not sure how much by, though.

I don't think the nominations really cost the scum that much. It sort of confirmed CES (everyone already thought twisted was town), but he wasn't really under suspicion before that anyway. I had CES as a strong town read before he was nominated. And the nomination mechanic did buy scum the deaths of two powerful town players, you and zMuffin. I guess they could have tried to more actively use it to clear themselves, but I think most people were too suspicious of the WIFOM involved for that to really work.

One thing that I do think was a misstep is that Copper waited too long to join my wagon Day 3. I think there were three votes on me (Fenchurch, CES, and malp) and twisted was considering joining it, but Copper was voting Rory and then the wagon sort of died. Had Copper picked up where he left off Day 1, the scum could have got a mislynch that day and it would have been a very different game. Day 5 would have been LyLo and town would have needed to lynch scum only to win. It also would have possibly prevented the momentum swing against Fenchurch and Copper.

[VitaminR]

still surprised how you deduced my alignment from a marathon game we played for about 10 minutes before it was abandoned

It may have helped that in that game we decided in the QT that you should hammer the absent townie for being absent and seeing how you justified that in-thread gave me some insight into how you choose to present changes in your thought processes as scum. In this game, I never saw you do anything that felt similar. But even independently of that, I think you seemed very town this game to most players.

[VitaminR]

Re the setup: I think it was an interesting dynamic and the dimension of WIFOM it introduces is quite cool. As for balance, I think this game could have easily gone a different way. I do have a suspicion that the game might need a little tweak or something (like giving the scum the option of having one of the "nights" be an actual one with a NK) to encourage scum to try to screw with the town more in the nominations. As it stands, scum nominations are pretty risky. If it goes awry, it is a big setback for the scum team.