Open 318: By Nomination Only (Game Over)

[zMuffinMan]

Nope. And I don't plan to for a while. This game started for me after midnight last night (or this morning), and I didn't even realise it had started. Will catch up on the happenings later tonight. 1pm and somewhat busy today.

[zMuffinMan]

OK.

This is my catchup post.

Lame I may be, but foolish I'm not. Zito had a nice newby trap, and he caught, unsurprisingly, a newby. A particulary uncautious newby for jumping at such an obvious trap and for that reason not a great bandwagon to start with. I'm sure Zito can see this too. I am quite sure about this, because Zito is a very smart person who knows what "cognitive dissonance" means.

Or does he? To me it seems he just knows the words, but doesn't know their meaning. Cognitive dissonance is a theory from theoretical psychology, which states that a human will try to diminish the disparity between what he knows or believes and what he observes. Rationalization is usually the tool used for that. It's hardly applyable to the situation Zito created. Here on MS, cognitive dissonance starts to mean: "scum know more and this will seep into their normal posts". When this is read carefully, one will notice that this is exactly the opposite from what the term actually means.

Zito takes it even further, to let it mean "he says something and does something that doesn't follow from it". And then he hides it in a nice box with the label "cognitive dissonance", which has nothing to do with it. It isn't even a contradiction, for the simple reason that right from the newby games, people are told that they shouldn't claim right away. Amrum can hardly be blamed for reflexively voting Zito without thinking through. Not everybody remembers that claiming early was antitown because it gave away information to the scum.

Zito's trap never had the intention of catching scum, and zito's first serious vote is hidden by a smokescreen of syllables which most of the people can't see through.

applicable*

not applyable.

[zMuffinMan]

woo, OK, lots of stuff about VT claims. I suppose I should get my claim out of the way now.

Claim: Miller

Now that's been settled,

Fenchurch gives me all sorts of bad scum vibes. So does Hoopla.

That's all I have so far.

Anti-climactic?

VOTE: Fenchurch

[zMuffinMan]

How can a beacon of towniness be scum?

[zMuffinMan]

So she waffles on about claiming with conviction in real life mafia but refuses to take a stance on whether PZ actually is or isn't town because of his claim. Yeah, look closely... She never actually gives a read, it's all IIoA.

What else has she done?

Oh, that's right. Nothing.

She asks Amrun "

do you think you will be on the nomination list tomorrow?

"
She asks Twisted about his RVS vote.
She asks forest_air a general question.

Yeah, that's a summary of her scum hunting so far.

Then we get fluff about Rory that could have easily been explained by Rory itself.

Fenchurch is scummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. With 20 Ms for added emphasis.

[zMuffinMan]

a) You're wrong, I'm not scum.

Damn. Back to the drawing board, then.

b) You say I've done "Nothing" and then proceed to give a list of the things I have done.
Which are more than many of the players in the game so far. (see: forest_air, Copper, Rory, zMuffinMan)

The things I listed were the nothing you've done. It's also the nothing I'd expect from Fen-scum. Do a little fake scum hunting, disappear, reappear when muffin puts his vote on you, comment on nothing else.

c) My read on PZ is, currently, slightly-town. Based on his other actions as well. In #34 I was just saying that the claiming-tell is not strong (like, 1 point on a 100 point scale), as a couple of people were saying that I had a townread on him and I felt that was too far. Ultimately, I'm not fond of declaring people town early on, because I've seen games where scum get an easy ride that way.

Right... But it was IIoA and you didn't actually say what you thought of PZ. Like, you didn't even say you don't have a town read on him because of it - you did some round-about explanation of why his actions don't necessarily give you a strong read of any kind. Fen-sitting. Ha, a pun. I am so smrt.

d) Was it necessary to quote Rory's post just to correct that spelling error? What is your read on Rory?

Yes and town.

[zMuffinMan]

Why not comment on the more controversial players, muffin?

Like who? And what's controversial about them?

Can I see some scum meta, zmuffin?

As far as I can remember, I've only been scum 4 times. newbie 1082 (which fenchurch modded, actually), newbie1095, open302 and a hydra in superheroes revolution (large theme). Whatever's in my wiki. You're not going to find 'flippancy' in my scum meta.

--

@fenchurch,

Is there a reason behind your Amrun obsession? You talk directly to her in ISO#1 and ISO#2, and now you're talking about her again, while ignoring a lot of other stuff.

Not that I can really talk with my fenchurch obsession, but it just strikes me as odd that you're investing so much time into talking about Amrun this game.

[zMuffinMan]

Well PZ is town. I am reserving judgment on you and NS for now.

[zMuffinMan]

Well PZ is town.

expand further

W e l l P Z i s t o w n .

[zMuffinMan]

This conviction is therefor fake.

Yerp.

I don't actually know she's scum with 20 Ms, you got me.

Do you think this lessens my reason for voting her? Is it scummy if I only think she's scummmmmmmmmm with 10 Ms?

Or are you saying the general aggression in my stance is scummy?

It's even more odd that muff semi buddys me here (I could explain a myself, apparently)

Fenchurch explained that you were a hydra... and this was unnecessary... because you could have explained it yourself...

And I'm buddying you... by pointing this out...

Give me a couple minutes to recover because my head is aching and there's a big red palm-shaped mark on my forehead.

...

OK. Got me some panadol, all good now.

Still his choice to go only for Fenchurch (and not vitamin, Forest, NS, etc)...

Why should I have 'chosen' to go after them? Hoopla would be my next scum choice after fenchurch, over any of those people.

--

NS lurks and flounders as scum... It is just his way. He hates being scum.

NS is lurking?

And how is NS floundering and what about this is scummy?

[zMuffinMan]

Man, to be honest, I'm disappointed. If I were going to call me scum, I would have at least made up something about me avoiding explaining my town read on PZ. I even made a joke of it. Why not use that, rory?

[zMuffinMan]

@Hoopla (#135)

OK, so Fenchurch is town then

Unvote

VOTE: Hoopla

--

@f_a

Why is NS lurking...?

Were you asking NS why he is lurking, or were you asking Amrun why she thinks NS is lurking?

--

@Hoopla again,

Nobody Special, Amrun, Copper and VitaminR are the group of players I'd be most willing to lynch right now.

Explain this. In as much detail as you could possibly go into.

Well, less so now - I like his last post.

I think Nobody Special/Amrun suspicion is also mutually exclusive too. I gave you reads on who is most likely going to flip scum individually. Obviously a Nobody Special scumflip would drop Copper/Amrun down the list. It's kind of why I'm bailing from that wagon right now. We have a weird triangle of votes on three of my current suspects - which feels like they're probably not scum together, and could even be all town. I think I want to scrap that and go after VitaminR who doesn't have such connections, as that seems like the more rational play.

I don't want you to squirm your way out of this. Twisted asked you why Copper is one of your top suspects, you don't get to answer with "well, he isn't after his last post".

--

I trust Hoopla's Fen read; just because Hoopla is lying scum doesn't mean she wouldn't try to white-knight Fen.

My thoughts exactly.

--

well why not?

I could think of several advantages for Hoopla were hoopla scum defending Fenchurch.

Well, it's easily verifiable if anyone wants to check Fenchurch's meta, so that's one reason it's probably not a lie.

The other reason I personally think this is Hoopla-scum buddying Fenchurch-town is because of Hoopla's strategy for this game, which is outlined in #147 - to be specific, I think this is Hoopla-scum is trying to form a voting bloc

[zMuffinMan]

@Hoopla,

Your defense of Fenchurch isn't why I think you're scum.

The question posed (by Twisted, I think) was whether or not Fenchurch would be town if you're scum. This 'conspiracy theory' around that isn't why I think you're scummy. I think you're scummy independent of that.

Why? Gut. I think you're scum. That's it. The fenchurch=town explanation, and this last post by you are the first posts in which you've really done anything in this game. At least you're posting content now.

While I'm away, I'm interested in your town reads, and your thoughts on divulging on them. Do you think it's pro-town to declare town reads in this setup?

If you can't give me that, give me your new scumreads

Copper, PZ, Twisted... NS and Vitamin are weaker town reads for me right now. Rory and Fenchurch I'm meh about for now. You're still scum. f_a and Amrun would be my next two suspects after you.

I don't particularly care whether it's pro-town to do it.

--

@f_a

Wait, do you actually think NS is lurking?

He's got more content in his ISO than you do.

--

Vitamin's #187 just reminded me of this quote;

If one adds to this that muff had to be asked to find reasons

Who asked me to find reasons for what? Is this meant to refer to my reasons for voting Fenchurch? Because nobody asked for them. I gave them, coz, ya know, I hadn't posted anything and I figured I at least owed it to the game to properly explain at least one of my suspicions.

[zMuffinMan]

Erm, nope. He asked why I thought Fenchurch was town - and I explained.

No, twisted was talking to NS at the time (here). I was commenting on that, and it had nothing to do with why I think you're scum.

For the record, I've always been posting content - it's been largely in the form of pushing wagons and analysing minor events, but it has been there, and has been more pronounced than some of our other players.

Pushing wagons? No. Not once have you 'pushed' any wagon you've been on. You've shifted your vote quite a few times, but you've never even come remotely close to pushing any wagons you've been on.

Analysing minor events? Maybe. Just IIoA though.

More pronounced than other players? Not at all. Could you point out who, specifically, you're referring to here? Apart from me, since I hadn't posted at all at the time.

#202 is nice, but I don't know why people are calling it a town post.

I agree on the points on Amrun, but this isn't something I couldn't see Hoopla-scum writing. Your points on NS are just meh; it looks like making excuses for not being able to read a player. He looks town to me. Effort and content aren't town tells.

Still, you seem to be flip-flopping on every suspicion you have. Who do you actually think is scum? Still Vitamin, even though you have "conflicting feelings" about him? Anyone else?

--

There is something off about zmuffin's play in this game. I can't put my finger on it - but I will, eventually.

Is it perhaps that I'm town and you're scum and you're looking for a reason to find me scummy, but you have nothing that won't backfire and make you look worse for it?

[zMuffinMan]

I don't know, you're the one that can't put your finger on it. You tell me.

Or was that just a stupid question that you were asking because I'm right?

[zMuffinMan]

That reminds me, you asked for my scum meta. Have you done anything with it, or was that just a show? How about a little follow-up?

[zMuffinMan]

You're using (lack of) content as a scumtell for me (or at least a selling point)

No, I'm not. I commented that you didn't have any real content up until that point, but that's not why I think you're scum.

The relevance of content as a tell varies player by player - for some it's nearly irrelevant, but others, it's critical.

So you wrote a whole paragraph to explain this point and all its wishy-washy goodness?

I assume you had a point in writing this. Does it apply to your read on NS or something? Because that's what I was commenting on. It looks like a whole lot of irrelevant IIoA that you wrote for the sake of writing it.

My main willingness to lynch Nobody Special stemmed from a utility perspective: If I'm unlikely to be able to read a player, or will be able to read this player less in comparison to others, then it's a pretty weighty factor to consider for the D1 lynch.

So what do you think of NS wanting to lynch Copper earlier?

To be honest, I think the way you've been arguing for my lynch has started to become insincere.

I don't particularly care whether you think I'm being insincere. But, now that you've brought it up, is my 'insincerity' scummy to you?

I think I've provided very good reasons for why I've acted in certain ways - I can't account for your "gut" feeling, but it looks like it's starting to trump everything else, and you're now just cherry-picking whatever you can to suit your read, and ignoring what challenges it.

Cherry-picking? I assume you think I've overlooked some of the more 'pro-town' things you've been saying, or something? Care to highlight what I've overlooked and why you think I'm cherry-picking things to suit my read?

Who is individually scummiest (often when lists are organised like this, the top 2/3 never work together)? Who is the scumteam? Or who I'd most like to lynch? They all produce different answers. So, I'll let you pick which one you want me to answer before you accuse me of twisting the question.

I'm not sure why you couldn't answer one or all of those without asking which one I specifically wanted to know. But, now that you've brought it up, feel free to answer all of them. Feel free to also answer Twisted's concerns with your Rory=town statement, which you avoided answering with a joke about Twisted's hydra account being town. Cute.

I don't know why you're criticising Amrun for having a gut-based read, when that is entirely what your vote on me is predicated on.

That was a criticism of Amrun?

[zMuffinMan]

I think she was too busy playing the stock market to answer that question.

[zMuffinMan]

btw, can anyone provide any sort of insight (read:meta) on whether joke-around-hoopla is scum-hoopla or town-hoopla? I'm very lazy and don't want to go through her games.

[zMuffinMan]

It disappeared. I watched it and it disappeared right before my eyes. It's amazing.

Unvote

VOTE: Rory

Let's do this.

[zMuffinMan]

What disappeared?

Nothing that you need to worry about. Was something Equinox wrote and deleted. I was told to watch something, and I did, and like magic, it disappeared.

--

@Copper,

Out of interest, how many heads do you have?

Can you elaborate on your Vitamin scum read? Because I'm not seeing Vitamin-scum at all.

Also,

I'm not opposed to the Rory wagon, but the timing is leaving me skeptical. I mean, we have forest_air, Papa Zito, Rory, and NobodySpecial who have all had a recent (or sometimes longstanding) lack of engagement. It's very likely there's at least one scum in that list, but placing Rory over the others seems a little arbitrary.

I hopped on the Rory wagon because it's more likely to go places than the f_a wagon (nobody was voting for f_a at the time), and I have a town read (to some degree) on PZ and NS. So, not really arbitrary for me.

If there are people that want to head to f_a's house and throw him a surprise party, I'll gladly join the group. I get the feeling that he's the weak link in the scum team and his partners are subtly trying to avoid mentioning him as much as they can. Nothing to substantiate this, pure intuition on this one. It doesn't help that Hoopla, who I still think is scum, has completely avoided talking about f_a (except for mentioning that f_a hasn't posted much content).

--

VitaminR, what do you think of my post where I torture myself with WIFOM over Forest's mixup/denial of mixup?

Why did you ask Vitamin this question?

IN OTHER NEWS, despite Copper's previous towniness, his latest post reads like a "Where has my mislynch gone while I was away" scumpost.

So that one part Copper wrote about Vitamin's wagon disappearing overshadows the rest of its post for you?

--

Will respond to Rory in the next post. Something tells me I'm not going to like reading his post.

[zMuffinMan]

A. Pick a clear towny
B. attack
C. tunnel and fluff.

Newby scum tactics explained in 3 points.

Oh, the irony.

Typing with just my left hand now, as my forehead is planted firmly in the palm of my right hand.

Esspecially since Hoopla has been making a surprising lot of sense.

Elaborate on what she's been saying that makes a lot of sense, and how this makes her town.


OK, there wasn't much to respond to here. I just assumed since he quoted a wall from me that there'd be more content. Oh well.

[zMuffinMan]

I mean, you said his posts reads like a "Where has my mislynch gone while I was away" scumpost, right?

So the rest of his post was either null for you (e.g. fenchurch=town, his point about the rory wagon) or overshadowed completely by the one part where he questions why the Vitamin wagon has died.

I'm basically asking you to clarify why you think his latest post reads like a "Where has my mislynch gone while I was away" scumpost...

[zMuffinMan]

A couple of times you've posed questions/thoughts about certain aspects of my play which look like explanations of why you think I'm scummy. Whenever I try to address them, you recoil and say that isn't the reason for your suspicion. So, if your suspicion is still entirely gut-based, then, no you're not cherry-picking as you aren't attempting to make a case against me. If you are presenting opinions on things that make me scummy, then you ought to say those thoughts have merit, as opposed to not being a reason for your suspicion. Is your suspicion of me still just gut?

I don't like having to do this, but I'm going to dig back through the steaming pile of scum that is your ISO.

So here you state that 'several people' are falsely accusing you of being scummy because you called Fenchurch town. That is the long and short of this post, and that is essentially what you say NS and I were doing. However, neither NS or I called you scummy even once for your defense of Fenchurch. NS and I were responding to Twisted's questions about the likelihood of Fenchurch being town if you're scum. It wasn't "you're scummy because you did it", it was "it still makes sense if you're scum". I can't explain this any better, but essentially your #176 was drivel that was completely irrelevant. And you call it debunking my suspicion? Er, no.

In #215 I make sure you know that I was talking to Twisted and it had nothing to do with why I think you're scum. I also point out the large holes in your self-proclaimed town-play (namely, the fact that you hadn't pushed any of the wagons you said you pushed, you hadn't really been analysing minor events any deeper than IIoA, and you hadn't actually posted much content).

So how do you respond to this? In #222, you ignore everything other than me pointing out that you hadn't really posted much content. *clap clap* You sure shut down my qualms with your play.

What else do you do in #222? A whole bunch of fluff that I later respond to in #237 and you've only just responded to

some

of the things I mentioned in that post. Granted, you claim you've been busy, but that still doesn't explain why you're ignoring the inconvenient parts of my posts.

You want to know why I thought you were scummy on page 4? Because you coasted through the first four pages making jokes, voting people for no reason, and lots and lots of IIoA designed to make it look like you were posting content. That is why I thought you were scum, and that is what you still haven't addressed, except to claim that you were posting content.... Uh, no.

You want to know why I still think you're scum? Because you're wall-posting fluff and IIoA with a few generic reads that you've been really wishy-washy with. And people are ignoring this because they see "OH WALL POST, SHINY!!!" and look past the fact that you're not actually posting much worth reading.

And now you've somewhat reverted back to your joke-around style with your vote on PZ and you're still ignoring a lot of the questions that are inconvenient for you. And not just questions from me. You still haven't answered the concern that has been raised by multiple people now (Fenchurch, Twisted and myself) - Why do you have a town read on Rory?

You're scum. But here's the thing... I don't care about you right now because nobody seems interested in seeing you as scum D1. I'm going to find your buddies, string them up, then urinate on their dead bodies. And then I'm going to come after you.

--

That absolutely looks like a criticism, or an implication that she is likelier scum from that statement than town. You'd be foolish to frame a sentence in that manner if you didn't want it to read as an attack, or at the very least, a pointed defense.

Your gut-based read on me falls victim to the same line of criticism you give to Amrun's read on you.

I didn't criticise anything. I asked a leading question because I wanted to assess how she answered it.

[zMuffinMan]

Pick a target. Tunnel. Keep arguing because it's easier then starting somewhere new.

[zMuffinMan]

@Hoopla,

By the way, I noticed this before, and I commented on it earlier, but... Why haven't you mentioned forest at all, except in passing (explaining that you have more content than her)? Do you have any sort of read on her?

[zMuffinMan]

@Amrun,

Meh. Doesn't really change anything. I don't always get the reactions I want from the things I do and the questions I ask. I need to be more subtle in my provocations.

[zMuffinMan]

Rory, next post, explain your 4 scum/null->scum reads.

Like, I get that you have a crush on me and everything (don't worry, you're not alone here), but I haven't actually seen you explain any of your reads in any substantial way. I've seen you waffle on about NS a lot, and how he is lynchbait, and whatever, but the only times I've even seen you mention your #2 scum pick (Vitamin), you haven't really explained why you think he's scummy. Also, your f_a read would be cool as well. And, er, anything to better explain your scum read on me other than because I'm attacking

your scum buddy

Hoopla would be cool, too.

It's almost as if you're tunneling me because it's easier than having to start somewhere new.

[zMuffinMan]

In the same post as I mention Vitamin for the last time (266) you get your answers. Vitamin is passive semi lurking scum who should know better. Esspecially on the passive part. For example: he sat back too long at the start of the game. I think I even bothered to make a case on you. There is your answer then.

No, you made no mention of why you think Vitamin at all prior to this.

Your first mention of Vitamin altogether is in #129 (your ISO#7) and it's just a mention, nothing more.
Your second mention of Vitamin is in #149 (ISO#8) where you say you worry about Vitamin, and nothing else.
Your third mention of Vitamin is in #266 (ISO#10) where you say Vitamin is your #2 scum pick, but don't explain why.

And, er, Vitamin is the semi-lurking passive scum who sat back for too long at the start of the game?

As for your read on me, it's... what? That I attacked and continue to attack Hoopla? Is that really all you've got on me? Nothing else you can grasp onto?

Why didn't you explain your two null->scum reads, either (NS-alpa+FA-CES)?

I assume that since you think NS requesting replacement is town, your reads have changed now. Or have they?

--

So I had a look over Vitamin in ISO to see what all the fuss is about.

I had some real issues with his earlier posts (specifically ISO#2 and ISO#3, which looked really scummy to me) but from ISO#10/11 onwards, I was getting town vibes from him.

[zMuffinMan]

No, actually muff, it was this. And then you picked a new target which was hoopla, and you newby-scum tunneled.

Its the target picking that is the unnatural part, for the one's who don't understand me.

Define unnatural.

Because I made it pretty clear in #96, one of my first posts of the game, that I thought Fenchurch was scummy and so was Hoopla. I accepted Hoopla's explanation of Fenchurch's meta, and went with my next scum read.

Is this unnatural because you can't understand the flow from Fenchurch->Hoopla, or is this unnatural for another reason?

[zMuffinMan]

I still want to know how many heads Copper has and why it's always frowning.

[zMuffinMan]

er, to be fair, whichever head of Copper it was that posted the one before last did clearly state that he was going solo for that post due to the other heads being inactive on weekends. So, like... I'm not actually sure how you could call it excuses for backtracking, unless you think Copper lied about it in the first place.

pS: I swear Equinox stalks this, hitting refresh every other minute to find the perfect opportunity. Way too good at this.

[zMuffinMan]

haha, I feel pretty fucking stupid but I forgot this was a nightless game and scum would have day talk. Derp

@Amrun,

Updated scum reads, please. It looks like you've flip-flopped on just about everyone's alignment at some point in the last few pages.

[zMuffinMan]

I got halfway through writing something and my computer froze. Yay.

I find it difficult to believe that a town player would tunnel so heavily on me when the basis of the read resides entirely in gut. That's an awfully large amount of confidence to put in an unexplainable belief.

I'm an arrogant prick, it's what I do best.

You bemoan my lack of contribution, but also say that in itself isn't a tell either way. But if that isn't a tell, you're basing my alignment off very little content. How could you develop such a strong read on me if content isn't one of the reasons for suspecting me? Because as you claim, there was little else to go off.

It's not solely that you didn't post content. Lots of people hadn't posted much content. But when someone posts 10-15 times and none of those posts are even worth reading, that's when I start getting suspicious. I think I already explained this, anyway. I don't care about you today. Nobody seems keen on seeing how obviously scummy you are, so I'll find your buddies first and go from there.

I will find them. And I don't care how much you flail about calling me scum in the mean time.

Rejecting this and still having a gut read on my contentless play makes it seem like you picked a target rather than truthfully had a gut-scum read on me.

You read my #279 right?

I'm going to keep on you for the entire game, Hoopla, because you're scum. And I will see you lynched at some point, because that's what I do. But you're not a concern today, and I have no problem with you flailing about for a while before I try to lynch you.

It's funny seeing you explain that you'll be OMGUSing all game and you're hoping to get away with it, though. I don't particularly care if you call this a misrep. Your 'town read' on Rory is because he called you town, and your scum read on me is because I've called you scum. Hilaaaaaaarious. You can say I'm oversimplifying things all you want, but that's what it is.

--

It makes rory seem more town if anything and I feel Muffin might be wrong about rory

I probably am.

tbh, he's still a meh read for me and I'm more interested in going after people who I think are linked to Hoopla in some way.

CES would be a good start, but I haven't seen enough from him to really make a call on him yet. I didn't like f_a but I'm getting mixed feelings from CES so far.

This here...

zMuffin, Amrun or malpascp. Not VitaminR.

Makes me think either Amrun or malpascp is scum. I need to look back over NS again, but I have no qualms with an Amrun wagon - I'd like to see whether her reads start developing better when she's under pressure.

If amrun was scum and Vitamin town, then I'm unsure why Amrun would jump off of the Vitamin wagon. Sure it was losing momentum, but like you say, Amrun found a new scumtell and that could surely improve the momentum; and It's not like the PZ wagon had any momentum

I have a few possible explanations for this (most of them have to do with hoopla being scum with Amrun, lol), but the most likely explanation I can think of is that Amrun-scum is vote-hopping to make it look like she's a conflicted townie having trouble with her reads. It's also quite possible she is really a conflicted townie, though. Meh.

--

So I'm thinking through this game, and going over which of my reads I'm sure and not sure about.

At the moment I'd say three scum are in this group:

Amrun
Cogito Ergo Sum
malpascp
Hoopla

If not all 3, then 2. I can't figure out who the other one would be. I'd say Rory or Copper, but that's just because I dislike hydras and PoE.

What's the Amrun wagon at right now? How many votes? Kind of haven't been keeping track of it since the last vote count.

[zMuffinMan]

Because I think hoopla is scum, and I think she named one of her partners in those 3.

Is that really all you have to say?

[zMuffinMan]

You know, Equinox. I was going to double post because I knew you were waiting for it.

[zMuffinMan]

What the... What are you even talking about?

Oh god...

Unvote

VOTE: malpascp

[zMuffinMan]

It looks like he's scraping for ways to invalidate what I said, when I never called it a 'scum tell', it was just a theory. Not only that, but he hasn't even mentioned that I could be wrong about hoopla, it's just "that doesn't mean I'm scum, too".

I also have no idea what he was talking about with the "reaction-catch" part, because nothing I said was to elicit reactions.

His 'replacement' town tell is crap, and just makes me think he's trying to use it to lessen suspicion his way.

[zMuffinMan]

I'm trying my best to interpret these posts, but it's really, really hard...

"it was just a theory"? So were you going to said that it was a town-tell?

I can't... even figure out... where to begin with this.

It's not a town tell or a scum tell, it's a theory that I have (there is probably one scum in that list hoopla gave because I think she is scum). I know I'm not scum, so I have heavy suspicion of the other two player she named. I'm not all too sure on which of you I think is more likely scum, and I'm not all too sure I'm 100% correct that one of you is scum, but I think it's a good basis for me to start on.

The replacement thing is that there are other games where forest_air disapeared, meaning that it wasn´t because of the roles (probabily). As I said, I usually rellie on that as a town-tell.

Let me get this straight.

You

know

FA replaced out of multiple games, but you think this is somehow a town tell?

[zMuffinMan]

@malp,

Wait, just read back and realised you said you usually think it's a town tell, but it's not this time because f_a replaced out of multiple games. Meh, still having a really hard time reading and understanding what you're saying.

So, why aren't you voting for anyone?

p-edit:

I figured as much after reading it again. It's just really, really difficult to interpret.

Unvote

VOTE: Amrun

[zMuffinMan]

btw Fenchurch, what reads are you actually conflicted about and why?

Also just realised the potential futility of this Amrun wagon, given the timing. derp.

[zMuffinMan]

@Hoopla,

So, like, what was your point here?

Are you trying to say that when I said, "It's not solely that you didn't post content" that this was somehow incongruent with something I previously said? If so, what? And how does this make me scum?

You made up reasons to suspect me, and the case you dumped about me in 279 are all things that happened after you got your scumread on me.

No. I clearly stated in #279 that the way you coasted through the first 4 pages, making jokes here and there and doing nothing of value is what I thought was scummy about your play. It's not solely lack of content. The rest of #279 does have to do with your play after my initial post because durrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr that's what happens as the game goes on.

Try harder, hoopla.

[zMuffinMan]

PS: loling at this bravado.

You'll never push a lynch on me, Hoopla, because you know it'll mean your death some time shortly afterward.

You're worried that you won't be able to talk your way out of it after it goes down, which is why you're not even going to try.

[zMuffinMan]

Wait a minute.. Just went back and checked who's actually on the Amrun wagon.

Twisted already gone off the Amrun wagon, so you can't be talking to him, and even if you were talking to him, he's already said he has a town read on me.
CES also said he has a town read on me.
I don't think you're asking me personally whether I'd abandon this Amrun wagon to vote for myself (I dunno, maybe you are).

Why did you feel the need to ask the people on the Amrun wagon whether they'd abandon it for a muffin wagon?

[zMuffinMan]

No, it's nothing to do with whether or no I'm right or wrong. She's not going to push it because it'll be way too obvious.

I'm not the kind of person that says "lynch X after me". But I do know she'll never even try to push a lynch on me because she's worried about looking scummier because of it.

[zMuffinMan]

Vitamin, you act like Hoopla can't retract any of her reads at a later point when her 'scum' reads start popping up as town. #377 means nothing. She's already admitted that all of her 'reads' thus far are based on early interaction with her. She can just as easily change any of her reads at a later point based on new information that pops up or just admitting her reads were flawed in the first place.

But, like I said, I'm not interested in trying to convince anyone to lynch her today, and we'll see how long her town reads stay town reads as the game progresses.

Just ordering my own reads:

TOWN

Twisted
Copper
Vitamin
Fenchurch
PZ
malp
Rory
CES
Amrun
Hoopla

SCUM

Although the middle area {PZ, malp, Rory, CES} is really, really grey.

PZ could stand to post more, or at least comment on more, although he's said he's rereading so I'll wait and see. malp has been unimpressive so far but I had a slight town read on NS. Rory is meh, I don't feel strongly that he's scum, and I had a slight scum read on f_a before CES replaced in although he's sort of working to counteract that.

[zMuffinMan]

I'm not scum and I never play like this as scum. Whimsically aggressive muffin is town muffin.

I'll make you a promise though, Twisted.

If I'm scum, I won't NK you.

Does that make you feel a bit better?

[zMuffinMan]

There is no nk this game, muffin - and I think you know that.

I am so tired right now I can't even be bothered to point out how perceptive you are. It's like I'm an open book. Sleep time

[zMuffinMan]

I think my point was made clearly.

No, not really. I want you to answer this clearly:

Are you trying to say that when I said, "It's not solely that you didn't post content" that this was somehow incongruent with something I previously said? If so, what? And how does this make me scum?

Don't dodge the question.

I absolutely would. I'm certainly not at the point where I'd gamble on sacrificing myself in a "lynch me/then him" or "lynch him and if I'm wrong lynch me" deal, because, well it's Day 1. However, for a Day 1 read, I'm pretty confident with it, which is empowering because I don't normally have strong feelings on Day 1.

So why are you voting for Amrun? Are you just that much more confident that Amrun is scum?

I went back and looked at your case on Amrun, because I figured you must have struck gold or something based on where your vote currently is and what you're saying about me. I was disappointed.

So your case on Amrun is that she sheeped your vote on PZ (and you think this looked bad) and... and... that's it. Oh, you mentioned some crap about her finding scum tell for Vitamin (which is completely false) and then you insinuate that she pre-planned getting off the Vitamin wagon with that exchange (which looked to me like you were insinuating that Amrun is scum with Vitamin, which would sort of contradict your town read on Vitamin). Essentially, your case is terrible, and you have no real reason to think Amrun is scum, but you're voting her over me when you

think

you have a case on me and you're confident about it.

And you don't think there's anything wrong with this, I presume. Like you absolutely would try to get me lynched... BUT Amrun needs to die first. Right?

PS: Answer the question -

Why did you feel the need to ask the people on the Amrun wagon whether they'd abandon it for a muffin wagon?

I honestly don't know how I would play as scum this game.

Oh, right, you hadn't thought about how you'd play this game as scum up until now. Durrr, I believe that.

[zMuffinMan]

ur face is boring

[zMuffinMan]

Rory's #490 is saddening. Rory, since your vote is still on Vitamin, I assume you still think he's scum, right? Do you think Twisted was buddying? Do you think Fenchurch is scummy or lazy town?

We want to put this out there for input, because, prior to reading Rory in isolation, we were surprised at how much he has managed to avoid the now two-time highest vote-getter in this game.

meh, that in itself is not particularly telling, there are probably quite a few people he hasn't really commented on. He spent most of the game tunneling me and now his vote is on Vitamin and he's just sort of... coasting by. Rory did say they think Amrun is town who cracked under pressure or something to that effect in one of his recent posts, though, but no elaboration and it was 'subject to change' after his other head re-read the thread (I assume that other head is still VLA, iirc).

[zMuffinMan]

derp, ignoring that because you're clearly not reading.

[zMuffinMan]

No, like... How did she craft the response with Vitamin, who you think is town? I brought this up in #486 so I'm also interested in the answer.

[zMuffinMan]

I just assumed "set up" meant Vitamin had some sort of role in it. Pre-planned would make more sense than "set up", if that's the case, CES.

[zMuffinMan]

PS: Amrun never acknowledged any "scumminess" from Vitamin. Go back and read. That's hoopla misrepping.

[zMuffinMan]

The only conclusion I came to from looking at that chart is that MummRa has been lurking and not voting and is prob scum who we've been overlooking.

[zMuffinMan]

I just want you to know, Amrun, that I believe that you weren't intentionally sheeping Hoopla, but both Hoopla and CES seem intent on bussing you, so, like, I'll take it.

[zMuffinMan]

I could agree with that list, except swap CES and Copper around, take me out and put you in somewhere further up.

Any explanation behind your reads, since you've been calling Hoopla town for just about the whole of today?

Also looks like you did some shifting around in that list (judging from the misplaced 'r' in Copper). I'm going to guess PZ was your #2 and you moved him below Copper?

[zMuffinMan]

I could also get behind a Rory wagon. Although I'd much prefer to see this Amrun lynch through.

PZ is meh, I don't like him dying on this game after promises of re-reading. Not really enough for me to want to lynch him though.

[zMuffinMan]

I don't think PZ's lurking/inactivity/lack of contribution means anything in terms of alignment. I'd like any of the people voting / expressing-willingness-to-vote PZ to actually... you know... explain why.

malpas I feel is more likely town than scum. I had a town read on NS. malpas is really, really meh so far, but he hasn't done anything that makes me think his scum, and even though he hasn't explained it, I can't say I hate his vote on CES.

I don't really understand the case on Copper. It makes no sense to me. Would also help if the Copper voters further explained this one.

And Vitamin is a town read for me. And continues to be town.

The only 'viable' wagon I see at the moment is Amrun. And at this point, I also just want to know for sure whether or not Amrun is town or scum.

[zMuffinMan]

Ya, but do you think your concerns with his play could also be at least partially explained by his inactivity?

[zMuffinMan]

I don't think he's been trying to avoid explaining it, though. I think he just hasn't explained it because he isn't in the game, really. And I don't think that's an alignment tell.

[zMuffinMan]

Durrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

PZ is scum because he's not posting
muffin is scum because he doesn't see how not posting makes PZ scum
but muffin is unlikely to be scum because he is defending PZ who I think is scum

OH WELL, FoS ANYWAY. LOLZ

[zMuffinMan]

Oh, right. You were FoSing me but you don't think I'm scum, even though you've been calling me scum all game.

That makes sense.

My bad. I misquoted you, lololol.

[zMuffinMan]

number, I guess.

[zMuffinMan]

I think it's about time for Amrun to claim. Although something tells me scum have safeclaims. hmm.

[zMuffinMan]

Oh, shit. Joke time is over. Disregard that. I'm sorry Rory, I'll be Captain Serious from now on.

[zMuffinMan]

So I opened this thread asking myself "WHY IS IT SO DAMN HARD TO LYNCH AMRUN?"

And now I'm all paranoid.

Why

is

it so damn hard to lynch Amrun?

Something is going on.

[zMuffinMan]

I need to consider some things. Something feels really, really off.

Unvote

@Amrun,

Right, that's all very well and good, but Copper isn't getting lynched today and you still haven't taken the time to explain your reads.

Yeah, you're V/LA for a legitimate reason, but if you're going to use that as an excuse not to post content, you're better off replacing out.

If you don't replace out, I want your reads + explanations again. ASAP, preferably. Deadline is becoming an issue.

[zMuffinMan]

Actually, durr, replacing out this close to the deadline is never going to work. But it makes me wonder why you didn't replace out earlier.

And it also makes me wonder why people are criticising PZ for 'lurking' and not you. Like, yeah, you have your reasons, but you're still doing the same thing.

[zMuffinMan]

Also that timer is really confusing. Wednesday = July 6.

[zMuffinMan]

Is she doing the same thing?

yes. lots of posts doesn't mean lots of content.

Exactly, that's why I'm surprised it's prompted zMuff to remove his vote...

Given the setup (scum daytalk, mountainous), I'm paranoid. Something doesn't make sense and I'm trying to figure out where Amrun's partners are right now if she's scum.

[zMuffinMan]

meh. I need some sleep before I think about this properly. I can barely keep my eyes open and I keep wifoming myself.

[zMuffinMan]

1) We feel we have shown sufficient evidence to earn the support in our reads for today.

eh, I disagree with your Vitamin read. I'll go into detail with this later probably. Only have time for short posts now.

And malpas is someone I really want to see more from, but he's not a top scum pick for me.

3) We do not see any reasonable alternative wagon to Amrun at the moment.

Yep.

This is partially why I want to see Amrun's flip today, like I mentioned in #558.

I'll probably be putting my vote back on Amrun before this day ends, although it doesn't even matter according to the rules whether or not my vote is on her.

On a side note, I went back and checked over the rules, and the rules don't actually say what happens if nobody whatsoever votes tomorrow. In the case of a tie, the person who accumulated the most votes first is lynched, but if no one votes then this is essentially moot. Although I'm guessing Equinox would randomise it from the 3 nominations to avoid abuse.

[zMuffinMan]

Why does it matter whether or not she's dead yet? She dies in a day and a half unless a bigger wagon forms.

#608 is like... wow. That's the equivalent of hoopla asking me to join her in getting a wagon going. It's like Vitamin isn't even paying attention. I read that, then I reread it, and then I reread it again, and I still can't figure out the thought process behind it.

[zMuffinMan]

I'm going to seriously consider rory should Amrun flip scum

That's funny. I'm seriously considering Rory if Amrun is town. Probably for the same reason you're considering the Rory-Amrun pairing, which is ironic.

Everyone state your preference between a zito and malshhja lynch.

Neither.

If you're asking who I'd vote for if they were both up for nomination with say, Twisted, I'd have to think about it.

In any case, I'm not answering this question this close to the deadline.

I no longer think malpa is likely scum because he dropped a towntell - his accusation of "coaching" between CES and VitR implies that he doesn't realise the scum have daytalk. And it's seems plausible considering he doesn't seem to have read the game very thoroughly. What do you think of this?

I don't think this is a tell of any sort.

VOTE: Amrun

I don't want to see a PZ lynch today. If given the choice between Rory and Amrun or even a Hoopla wagon if it existed (and boy did I want that wagon to exist), I'd be more inclined to think about where I want my vote. But this just makes it simple. Poor choice of counter-wagon.

[zMuffinMan]

Ya, well I still want these promised explanations for Amrun's top scum reads (specifically Hoopla and Copper).

The PZ vote could do with an explanation too, though. This compromise because PZ has more support is not a good reason, especially since I think it'd be much easier to get a mal lynch than a PZ lynch.

[zMuffinMan]

I don't expect novels. I just want you to properly explain:

1) Why Hoopla has gone from the towniest of town reads when I wanted her lynched to the scummiest of scum reads. You said there's nothing wrong with her posts on the surface but they're

beginning

to look disingenuous. That's all I've seen in terms of an explanation for the shift in your read on her.
2) Why you still think Copper is the second most likely player to be scum. No real elaboration on this so far...

And, er, you're free to answer the other questions people are asking you, too.

I don't really see a reason to let you "stay afloat".

[zMuffinMan]

Oh, and you chose the wrong counter-wagon. I could get behind a Rory wagon. I could even see myself getting behind a mal wagon over an Amrun wagon. But PZ over Amrun? Nope.

[zMuffinMan]

hahahahahaha

Nope. Not biting. It's almost too easy. I actually need to think about this one.

[zMuffinMan]

Ya, that was my guess, too. Although I'm considering the possibility that you would do this as scum. I'm pretty sure Hoopla-scum wouldn't do this, though. It's just outright stupid.

[zMuffinMan]

Well, the other question I'm tackling in my head is why more obvious candidates like PZ or mal or Rory aren't in this group today.

[zMuffinMan]

2 from {malp, PZ, rory}
1 from {copper, twisted, fenchurch, vitamin}

[zMuffinMan]

Just some thoughts,

If it's me+CES-town, would Hoopla-scum do this? Maybe. Although it's risky. She'd be counting purely on the WIFOM aspect of this particular combination of nominations to help her live, as well as her buddies steering the lynch. As for what she'd say today (i.e. whether or not she'd try to point this towards one of CES or myself being more likely to be scum because of the nominations), I disagree. If she

did

do that, it would be far too obvious she was scum. Her posts so far have been fairly standard, and pretty much the same as what CES and I have been saying, except more eloquent.

If it's me+Hoopla-town, would CES-scum do this? Not likely, unless it's a failed gambit he didn't think through properly. The only possible way this could work out for CES is if Hoopla and I started arguing and he was left out of the spotlight. Or he could have been hoping for some sort of WIFOM game. But it's just completely unnecessary to nominate himself if that's the case. Why not chuck in someone like Twisted or Fenchurch?

The other more remote possibility I'm considering at the moment is whether CES-scum and Hoopla-scum would do this as partners, but that just seems so unlikely, and is only something I'll be concerned with if one of them is lynched and flips scum.

I'll wait until I hear from the people who haven't said much today before I say anything else.

our suggestion to the town is to "under-think" the day 2 lynch

This is probably good advice, but it doesn't save me beating my head against the desk WIFOMing myself.

[zMuffinMan]

There's a reason I think Rory is scum for that post, but I'm pretty tired right now, so I can't pinpoint exactly what it is.

[zMuffinMan]

ftr, still internally debating whether I think this is three townies today.

I am pretty sure CES is town. CES doing this as scum makes almost zero sense. He'd be completely reliant on WIFOM and his partners directing the lynch to get himself out of this if he were scum, and like I've already said, it makes so much more sense to throw in someone like Twisted or Fenchurch instead of himself.

As for Hoopla, I feel like her posts at the start of the day were more calculated. I didn't get the same "wow at those nominations" vibes from her posts that I got from CES's first posts. And this nominations list was obviously calculated for a reason. That reason might have been as simple as WIFOM with 3 not-so-obvious townies somewhere in the middle of the net scum reads, as Copper suggests, but I'm not entirely sure, and my paranoia is kicking in.

I'm more inclined to vote Hoopla at the moment.

Also a bit worried that no one seems to be reading Rory's posts and thinking "obvscum". meh

[zMuffinMan]

If this is three townies, speculating on who the scum team want to go is rather pointless for a number of reasons.

[zMuffinMan]

I already touched on that yesterday. I never got an answer, but my assumption was that Equinox would randomly lynch between the three candidates.

[zMuffinMan]

I don't know why you're apologising, although I think it's quite ironic that one of your reasons is that I've been wrong in my reads.

Who

do

you think is scum if you're skeptical about my reads?

[zMuffinMan]

So you pretty much have no solid suspicions other than PZ "probably" being scum?

What about Rory makes you think he's town?

[zMuffinMan]

VOTE: Hoopla

If one of these nominations is scum, it's Hoopla. I'm more sold on CES-town than Hoopla-town.

At least one of malp/Rory is scum. Quite possibly both.

I still don't think PZ is scum.

[zMuffinMan]

If Hoopla-town is so unpredictable, then why did you expect certain responses from her today?

[zMuffinMan]

It could be meaningless, but if you turn out to be scum, the attempt is important to note.

What would a Copper scum flip indicate here? Or like, what was important to note and why?

[zMuffinMan]

I kind of figured that's what he was implying, I just wanted to make sure. I'm actually more paranoid about bussing in this setup, though.

[zMuffinMan]

Stagnating game sucks. Fenchurch needs to vote, and then people need to express willingness to move their votes. I'd still rather see Hoopla dead than CES. If there's scum in the nominations today, it's her.

[zMuffinMan]

That's a pretty half-hearted case. A lot of it doesn't even make any sense.

[zMuffinMan]

Please be more specific. Which bits don't make sense, zMuff?

All of it.

I'm not entirely sure which two wagons you think I pushed D1 with little support (Hoopla is obviously one, but the other is...?) but you think I did this to make it seem like I was 'busy'? Really? So ignoring the fact that I was giving reads on everybody, commenting on everything I thought was relevant, etc, your complaint is that you think I was voting Hoopla (and some other mystery wagon) to make it seem like I was busy? And that I was doing this so I'd avoid taking flak for lurking???

You think I 'dithered' when the PZ wagon was forming? And this was to set up a bus on PZ?

That's either a misrep, or you clearly aren't reading. There was no PZ wagon forming when I unvoted Amrun (it was Amrun+Vitamin, that's it), and the main reason I revoted Amrun after unvoting her was because PZ was the only other viable wagon, and when it came to a choice between Amrun (who wasn't properly answering my questions) and PZ (who I didn't and still don't have a scum read on), the choice was obvious. Now, you might have a case for me voting Amrun to avoid a PZ lynch if you think both PZ and I are scum together, but that you think I was 'considering bussing' is just absurd.

The fact that these are your only objections to my play D1 makes it seem like you're stretching. Also strikes me as odd that you made no mention of this D1. It looks like you're trying way too hard to justify your vote on me today.

I also find it interesting that you're not committing to any reads today. Well, apart from your read on me. The rest of your posts today have been really wishy-washy.

[zMuffinMan]

3) Not just to avoid flak for lurking; to avoid being associated with the major wagon of the day (which I think scum are often afraid of) without appearing to be lurking.

....................................................................................

So... then... why bring it up?

It wasn't Amrun-Vitamin at that time. Although there was only one vote on PZ, several other players (Hoopla, Rory, Twisted, CES) had begun naming him as a viable alternative. Your unvote on Amrun seems unnatural, and I think it's likely it was contrived for another reason.

So I was wrong about it being Vitamin and Amrun, it was just Vitamin. So basically I jumped off the Amrun wagon when the PZ wagon... had almost no support.

Nobody on the Amrun wagon was naming PZ as a 'viable alternative'. Although you're free to find quotes. There was discussion about reads on him, but nobody was saying they'd vote PZ over Amrun.

As for my unvote, it probably did seem unnatural. Gut feeling told me something was going on.

Changing my mind isn't the same as not commiting to reads. I did think Hoopla was likely-scum, but since her volunteering for lynch I've been pretty clear I have town read on her. I've been consistent that I have a scumread on you. The only person I don't really have a read on is CES.

uh, it's nothing to do with you changing your mind on Hoopla, it's more the fact that you've failed to actually call any of the candidates a town read, including Hoopla, who you've gone from "probably scum" to "that was unlikely to come from hoopla-scum or hoopla-town" to "I don't think she'd do that as scum". Also, you mentioned Vitamin at the start of D2, but you were really wishy-washy on whether you thought he was scum based on the nominations.

Can you really see her doing this as scum?

Yes, but that's besides the point. I don't really have much choice in the matter of who is lynched today, and of the options, I think she is the most likely scum.

I hate this sort of WIFOM anyway. I could see her doing it as scum for the same reasons you think she wouldn't do it as scum... It makes her look town, right?

[zMuffinMan]

Is Hoopla your left hand or your right hand?

[zMuffinMan]

Huh? Because it's scummy.

Yeah, but it's pointless because it doesn't apply to me. Like.... I voted you for like... a day? And then I voted Hoopla until I realised there was going to be no support for her lynch... and... that's scummy because, ignoring the fact I did vote for "major wagons", I was still trying to avoid major wagons?

By far the most likely explanation to me is that she is town.

Right. So by doing something that increased her chances of being lynched, she looks more town and therefore you're less willing to lynch her.

...

Yep, can't figure out why she'd want to do that as scum.

[zMuffinMan]

ftr, I understand what you're implying, but it's a nonsensical argument fraught with wifom.

Hoopla probably is town, just given the circumstances, but if there's scum in these nominations, I don't think it's CES, and I know it's not me, so Hoopla is the best lynch.

[zMuffinMan]

prod-dodging because I literally have nothing to add. This day needs to end one way or the other, and Copper's #851 sums up a lot of my thoughts.

[zMuffinMan]

what?

The deadline is in 40 minutes malp.

2 hours 40 minutes from the time you posted that.

What were you expecting to happen in that 2 hours and 40 minutes?

[zMuffinMan]

If i had to guess the scumteam i'd say Roman, PZ, vitamin

This is pretty much what I'm thinking, although throwing malp in the mix as a possible 4th if one of them actually is town. I could see PZ town and the scum team being something like Rory, malp, Vitamin.

I'd rather Rory first. More confident about this, especially in light of a Hoopla town flip. The blatant buddying D1 reeked of scum.

VOTE: Rory

[zMuffinMan]

How likely do you think it is for all 3 scum would do that?

[zMuffinMan]

Oh man, I'm tired. Grammar way off tonight.

[zMuffinMan]

OK, how would your reads change if we lynched malp and he flipped scum?

[zMuffinMan]

Committing time to this later today. I mostly agree with #900 (replacing my name with Twisted). I could see PZ being scum just from PoE. Anyway, more detail etc later.

[zMuffinMan]

So these are people I won't be considering for a lynch today, based on current info:

Twisted - especially after his efforts today, I'm so very sure he's town
Fenchurch - so, so wrong about me, but it is Fen-town being wrong about me, not Fen-scum tunneling. Probing her at the end of D2, she felt really, really town.
Copper - I have no idea why people have such a hard-on for Copper. He's been acting consistently town, IMO. Like, he's someone I'll consider if all of my scum reads are flipping town, but he is not a scum read for me.
CES - I really, really felt the nominations yesterday were all town, and he's been playing like town anyway. My only beef with him was his predecessor, but after yesterday, pretty confident Twihe's town
malp - mostly because I agree with Twisted and CES here.

Which, of course, leaves me with PoE

Vitamin, Rory, PZ.

But this is doing a number on my head, because D1 VCA would tell me I'm so wrong it's not even funny. Interested in hearing people's assessment of the likelihood of a Vitamin-Rory-PZ scum team. Well... More interested in hearing what people think of the final D1 votecount, actually. I'm also going to break down the collapse of the CES wagon yesterday and see if anything can be found there.

[zMuffinMan]

Actually looking back over D1 final VC, I guess it's plausible that, considering PZ's only option was to vote Amrun and she was at L-1, his scummates were distancing. Maybe. hmm.

[zMuffinMan]

hm, I'd probably take a look at CES before I take a look at Copper, actually.

CES being scum would explain so much with D1 VCA and also the end of D2, with the whole "yeah I'll vote for CES" and no action.

Makes me paranoid.

[zMuffinMan]

Well, like, think about it like this. Suppose the scum team is Vitamin, Rory, PZ.

This is what the votecount would look like.

Amrun

(6) -

Hoopla

,

Cogito Ergo Sum

,

Twistedspoon

,

Fenchurch

,

zMuffinMan

,

Papa Zito

Papa Zito

(4) -

VitaminR

,

Amrun

,

Rory the Roman

,

malpascp

VitaminR

(1) -

Copper

Now there are a whole bunch of reasons this doesn't make sense.

Amrun's wagon stalled at L-1, and if there's 3 scum off the wagon and 5 town on the wagon at that point, it's pretty weird for a wagon to stall like that. In the first place, it's pretty rare for a wagon on a townie to consist of 5 townies with 11 players alive and 3 scum. Vitamin and Rory unnecessarily bussing PZ? The only feasible reason for this would be if they were doing it for WIFOM purposes because it didn't matter as long as PZ hammered Amrun. I guess if PZ did end up getting lynched, it'd put them in a better light, as well.

It's why I'm thinking if I'm wrong about one of my town reads, it's more likely CES than Copper. You still look really town and so does Fenchurch.

[zMuffinMan]

Not a cool answer, considering one of the main reasons you're voting Copper is you think he was bussing Vitamin D1.

[zMuffinMan]

Vitamin has been saying stuff like that all game. I called him town D1, but the continued need to affirm that he's town and certain people are reading him correctly or incorrectly, + PoE from stronger town reads, made me waver on this.

Overall, I agree that PZ scum implicates Vitamin scum, and not just because of VCA. There's links in Vitamin's ISO that make a whole lot more sense if they're partners.

I'll read back over PZ/Vitamin/Rory today. Might be a better idea to go after PZ for information purposes, now that I think about it.

[zMuffinMan]

Though this worries me. a little bit. This is a bit "well, I had him as town, but, now that he's a viable lynch, maybe I'm changing my mind?" But eh.

Changing my mind? No.

I had you as town D1. Two people who I thought were scum are dead now. You've been bumped down to my scum list from PoE.

Didn't you just do that and conclude that it didn't make sense (on kinda a whatever basis, but still)?

Yeah, if I look at VCA, it doesn't make sense.

What kind of reading back are you going to do?

ISOs. But I didn't get around to it today. So. Not today.

[zMuffinMan]

So my #1 scum pick is replacing. Is this a town tell, malp?

[zMuffinMan]

I've been working on a presentation for a seminar tomorrow, so I haven't actually had any time to do the analysis I want to do and I won't have time to do heavy reading before some time tomorrow night.

I think Rory is the safest lynch right now. I can't see any scum team that he's not a part of. Is there anyone that thinks he's not scum? If so, what do you think the most likely scum team is? Or if you're not comfortable picking a scum team, tell me why you think Rory is town.

[zMuffinMan]

Sorry, busy schedule these past couple days and my internet was down last night.

Also Twisted is V/LA until the weekend (he posted this in another game I'm in with him).

Catching up on what I've missed today.

[zMuffinMan]

What's your scum list?

PZ, Copper, Fenchurch?

I could agree that Vitamin is town, but not based on who he suspects.

Question to anyone who wants to give an answer to this, and the answer will probably vary based on who you suspect, but: Why do you think Amrun's wagon stalled at L-2 for ages on D1?

I've sorta been lazy with mafia these past few days. Will put some effort into catching up properly over the next 24 hours after some sleep. Apologies for the inactivity.

[zMuffinMan]

@fenchurch

Let's just suppose, in some magical parallel world, there's a slight possibility that you're wrong about me being scum.

Who would you think is scum and why? 1 or 2 scum on the Amrun wagon?

As for why I think the wagon stalled at L-2, there's a few possible reasons.

1) It was already scum-infested. I don't think this is likely just due to the composition of the wagon.
2) There was 1 scum on it and the other 2 were undecided as to how best approach the wagon. Again, I don't consider this likely, because I think Twisted and CES are probably both town.
3) There was no scum on it and they were in a predicament about how best to approach the wagon based on what they'd said previously about Amrun or they were inactive at the time or they simply didn't know how best to jump on the wagon without blatantly saying "yeah, I'm scum". <- This is what I think is most likely.

Your insistence that I'm scum is starting to irk me. Your case on me was pretty damn bad and you've done nothing to add to it except continually insist that my play was scummy D1.


@Vitamin,

So. Let's just say I believe you're town but we're not lynching Copper today. What now?

[zMuffinMan]

prod dodging.

will probably be voting zito after some sleep and a big, big catchup post that I've been avoiding putting time into.