Open 438: Masons and Mafia - Game Over

[ProsecutorGodot]

Alright. Day 1, new game, RVS time.

Courtesy of random.org, the number 4.

VOTE: Paschendale

[ProsecutorGodot]

This is mega scummy. Why feel the need to go to random.org? Worried about appearing suspicious? This is also a detriment to everyone because RVS isn't supposed to be truly random.

I just thought it might end up a nice change of pace in a random vote by making it truly random. As long as it gets discussion going, I think any method of random voting is sufficient. Sparking discussion isn't detrimental when it starts the analyzing process.

But now that we are out of the RVS, I didn't see any need for Paschendale to point out "He's using a facade to hide an OMGUS vote." We could go on about the return vote until the cows come home, but I see this as a way for scum to drum up an excuse to start a wagon. And possibly as said wagon moves along, see who comes to talk the town off. He also seems to tunnel the conversation between us when another pair of players voted for each other, and out of this pair, Om of the Nom even made it a point to say "OMGUS," which I see as a WIFOM trick in order to purposefully lead us astray.

However, at the same time, Paschendale does make a point that Greywing is acting hypocritically in his reasoning. Using a defensive reaction to paint someone as mafia is a weak point in GW's case since he copied it from the one he accuses and proceeded to contradict himself. In addition, Greywing seems to make an insufficient effort to introduce new ideas into the game in Post 21 and Post 34. All he did was change his vote and leave it to us to ask him why. If RVS ended a short time before or at Post 28, then it looks like Greywing denied us original, structured reasoning for his vote when he finally did explain. As such,

UNVOTE: Paschendale
VOTE: Greywing

Greywing, do you have better reads on Paschendale than what you gave us? Something new we could talk about, perhaps?

[ProsecutorGodot]

I honestly didn't think of RVS that way until I read over that article. Very good points indeed and I'll be sure to incorporate those into my future games.

For now,

@Whiskers: No, this is my only account.

For Greywing, I'll revise my question. What reads do you have on everyone here? In answering, do not speculate on possible teams.

P-edit @Malakittens: What's so interesting?

[ProsecutorGodot]

I see my nemesis, PG is already being scummy. But i feel the guy is still VI.

PG is like me, naturaly scummy.

Thanks for the offer, but I'll respectfully decline to make your cockfight a two-way bout. It's a game. Have some fun.

Malakittens, what is about how people moved to Greywing's wagon that interests you so much? It kinda bugs me that you haven't elaborated on that point.

[ProsecutorGodot]

If you would go back and read again, I did restate their points to concur, but you seem to miss the fact (or selectively not mention) that I built on that case with the fact that you never explained your vote, we shouldn't have had to ask you to explain your vote and when you did, you not only sheeped Pasch's read, you resembled your remark. And here you are pointing out that I sheeped them when you sheeped Pasch then and you even sheep Whiskers now in saying that RNG isn't super scummy even if it is detrimental to use.

Hypocrisy alone isn't enough to warrant a full-fledged lynch, but it's happened twice now. You probably could have made a better point and better use of your time to post had you not done the very thing you say is indicative of my play, because all I see from you are the very actions that you called Pasch and me out on. One such slip is a coincidence, but two back-to-back is starting to look like a pattern. At this point, I would definitely not mind if we put GW back at the tipping point.

I would comment about Salamence's meta, but that game is ongoing and is the only one I've seen him in besides this one. I'd rather not speculate on another game that I'm not even in anymore. Though I look over that post everyone else (rightfully) calls an AtE and honestly try to find something in there that's helping us out. I don't see it. Even if we agreed not to be fierce rivals, that doesn't mean we can't be opponents. And that doesn't mean I'm letting my guard down for you.

Even after that, I still think the demerits against Greywing warrant pressure. Just as soon as we were pushing him closer to a lynch, two backed off his wagon: McStab and Whiskers. Why did you take the pressure off even when GW himself hadn't answered my question before you did?

And why are we still trying to link people together when it's already been mentioned that we shouldn't team players up in our thoughts where scum can see it? We run the risk of scum picking up on the Masons should one of them slip. Every Mason they eliminate is one day we lose without even using our lynch. A day that we have to get back by lynching scum, which is harder for us to do than it is for scum to pull the trigger on someone. Again, we need to invest our time and analysis into each player as an individual without team speculation. The scum know who their team is. They just have to scout for the 4 players they have the safest and fastest kill on. And we improve their chances by doubling and tripling players together.

We just have to step back, ignore possible connections for now and start singling the scummiest players out. Then we work from there to see what our lynches mean when we get to the lynch. Sound like a plan?

[ProsecutorGodot]

Why do you completely ignore the case where scum hits a VT instead of a mason? Why do you assume scum will fire on anyone that isnt near confirmed mason? This post, and the similar thoughts by mcstab, look a lot like fear mongering to get town to scum hunt poorly.

The scum likely won't shoot D1. I'm suggesting for D1, let's not put our thoughts about connections between players out in the open unless it's obvious scum trying to cling to someone. It's okay if you want to make a note to yourself about it. Anywhere but here. We're planning according to the realization that we can't safely piece people together as teams until we have deaths and lynch counts to go off of. It's like every player has their own compartment and their alignment is in a file in that compartment. At this moment, we should keep things that way until we have at least one flip, which will also give us a full day's worth of votecounts.

It forces the one on the spot to take us closer to the scum by answering us, whether they are scum or not.

Scum could hit a VT, but it's not very sound to shoot D1 when any scum who takes such a shot knows (s)he is more likely to die. The reward is great, taking away one of the town's affordable mislynches right off the bat, but so is the risk, putting scum down a player D1 and giving us a flip to go off of for the rest of the game. Hitting a VT means they give us the truth, but it is not in their best interest for us to learn the truth. As such, they will likely hold off shooting as long as it takes for them to gain favorable odds of a successful kill. That is not to say they will go trigger happy at that moment.

Analyzing individuals without tying one player's name to another hinders their ability to use PoE and further limits their options. They likely don't have much choice left but to ride town wagons until a mason turns up, and by then, we'll very likely be on one scum's trail if we haven't already lynched scum.

Now, what about this plan supposedly encourages us to scumhunt poorly?

[ProsecutorGodot]

EBWDP: With this and the latest votecount in mind, I move that we make a more unified effort to bandwagon. We need votes to read people. We need pressure to read people. Not just who we're voting for.

[ProsecutorGodot]

You have a ton of possible coaching in here,

basically explicitly telling scum not to fire day1

.

Numbers alone dissuade a shot D1. But with how some of the play here has gone, we may already have improved their chances.

You also move from saying not to talk about any possible teams,

to allowing talk about obvious scum pairings

.

Let's take a look again.

I'm suggesting for D1, let's not put our thoughts about connections between players out in the open

unless it's obvious scum trying to cling to someone.

I never said we should talk about obvious scum pairings because, as Whiskers has stated, if we pin two people as scum and we're wrong, we hand the mafia a viable shot. I was talking to say that, for today, we don't get into a habit of pairing people up unless one person in said partnership is trying to get us to believe that connection. If it looks like scum defending someone for reasons unexplained, then we can openly look at that pair and see what's going on with them. The kind of play I'm against, either openly (which has happened) or subtly (will take a flip to find out), is handing scum ammo to take away our teammates. We're not encouraging bad scumhunting. It's more like saving our heavy artillery for the later stages of our war on scum.

You keep arguing that its unsafe to pair people together, but theres fatal flaws here that scum wont admit. Such as

1) A VT's best move under pressure is to claim mason.
2) VT's should be acting as much like masons as possible
3) Scum wont be firing on potential pairings, yet pairings can help find scum

And you tell me I'm coaching the scum when this also could very well be giving instructions. I can see the possibilities of what these three points of "theory" can convey to scumbuddies. You also seem to take cues from others to hop onto the next wagon. Scummy, but let me get back to you on that.

GW, which game(s), if finished, were you scumbuddies with DJD?

[ProsecutorGodot]

@PG: Yes, i am coaching there. The difference, is that im coaching other townies.

Scum can read your "town coaching" just the same and take your advice. All they have to do is read the topic.

Scum have no way of knowing if a suspected scum pairing is actually a mason pairing, thus there is nothing to fear. Simple.

Doesn't mean they have no way of finding out later on. You seem to take the scum for granted a bit considering their demise is our goal. Or do you know who they are and have little hope for winning?

[ProsecutorGodot]

Well, there you have it

Another game, another time I fuck up as town.

VOTE: Salamence20

GG, sorry I suck.

Claiming VT at L-2.

Now excuse me while I kill myself over how bad I am.

That's it. I thought Sala was tolerable enough and that there were other things we needed to look at before we lynched. I guess he's just rolled over and decided he won't play to win now. Either that or be a sacrificial lamb. Whichever way it's going, he has declared surrender and outlived his usefulness to us in this game. Whatever he's going for, he's not going to help us scumhunt by sulking. But look on the bright side. This will give us some wagon analysis and help us bring out some more effective scumhunting tools. He's at least sacrificing himself for that.

UNVOTE: Greywing
VOTE: Salamence20

[ProsecutorGodot]

EBWDP: L-1. If anyone wants to talk us out of this lynch, now is the perfect time to do so.

[ProsecutorGodot]

Hang on a bit, guys. I'm getting my case together in light of Sala's flip. Yes, I see he defended me. Give me a bit to explain what I think about the game now.

[ProsecutorGodot]

Well, this gets things going in a good way for us. Now we have a flip to go off of, and a scum flip, to boot. I'm ISOing Sala as well as those he was pointing fingers at and defending, so I'll put down my thoughts here as they come. You could be in for a long read.

McStab is very likely town due to Post 228. Most notably in this quote, corrected to reflect the truth.

It

shouldnt

completely

matter

s

though, for

now.

We

I

need

town

to lynch McStab.

DoubleJD is likely scum due to his early discussions with Sala and comments about him that were replaced with Post 124. For that, I would advocate a DJD wagon, but I'll continue reading and see if anyone else needs a wagon.

Om is likely town since it looks like Sala hopped to the McStab wagon off of Om's since it was starting to become popular. It looked like a last-attempt move to get a mislynch, so instead of riding one town wagon, he hopped to one he thought we would more readily believe was a scum wagon. Plus, this quote from the end of Post 157 just about confirms Om as town.

When you flip mafia, I am going to lynch Om, then your two flips will help me decide on Whiskers.

Post 202 looks like an attempt to set Om up for the gallows after his death.

Whiskers is leaning town. Whiskers has been opposing Sala for a reasonable length of time, pointing out flaws and has remained consistently on his case. I would like to note that Whiskers didn't place a vote for Sala until Post 229. I'm not sure about this approach of not voting Sala sooner for as long as you had been on him, but I think that could have been waiting for the right moment to strike or waiting for a stronger reason to nab him. I'd guess the latter since the little comments weren't getting your vote.

And now we get to me. I honestly think Sala was simply trying to etch in your minds that the two of us were connected. With the "PG/Sala" comments out there, I'd say he accomplished that. Check the order of his comments. Post 50, Post 53, Post 55 and then he starts defending me Post 73 when everyone has already long since given their thoughts on the "RNG in RVS" argument. Most notably,

I like having rivals, but maybe mafia isn't the game to have rivals in, because you never know how they will flip.

But anyways, you are right, lets have fun, and not let the past be the present *Holds white flag*

He doesn't say this until after my "spank you very much" comment.

Thanks for the offer, but I'll respectfully decline to make your cockfight a two-way bout. It's a game. Have some fun.

From how he played everyone that he accused after that (see Om case), I'm willing to bet he still would have contended with me had I not said that. Post 113 is where he makes a comment that he knows will get me lynched later.

PG #105 makes PG town. I would be game for a McStab lynch, but he is still in the Null/Scum Category.

Note once again that he later switched to the McStab wagon as a last-ditch effort at a mislynch.

Paschendale is an interesting lynch candidate right now. Before you cry "OMGUS," let's take a look back at Post 106,

I like the sound of that, PG.

Unvote

No readable suspicions of dispelling Sala's meta then. He came back to vote citing the coaching comment (along with DJD, mind you) but said nothing in his latest post about DJD's clarification that he was "coaching town" when it was flat-out WIFOM since scum can read that, too. Sala probably planned ahead and used his "strong town read" on me, whom he called his nemesis. He even artificially lifted this designation for the express purpose of such linkage. If it wasn't for DJD being likely scum, he could just as easily done it to him. Now that this thought comes to light, Sala was acting unnaturally friendly toward both of us, but chose to take me down with him. I refer back to Post 50.

I like to think of every different game I play a new slate where I can try and not flail like a moron

.

Maybe this will be the day I get my first win as town.

(Liar!)

I see my nemesis, PG is already being scummy. But i feel the guy is still VI.

Then again, with me, DJD, and PG, things might get really retarded.

Also, from post 73, he pleads DJD first.

@DJD:
Look, I know you are mad at me for my bad playing last game

(please, for the record, not talk about it, please? It was in the past, I want to keep it there)

And he had used past meta to establish in your minds that he was enemies with me and DJD. He then turned around and tried making friends just so we might help him along. And finally, from Post 119,

His first post, makes him scummy.
His join date and certain ongoing things make him VI.

I like 105, it sounds like a good plan, I like his points,

it makes me think McStab could be possible scum

(furthering the McStab town read)

, as do other posts.

This whole post feels like town, had he not had an early scum issue, I would call him leader of the town.

Yes, it does, however, it was not a strong scumread, and I wasn't going to hold him to it.

He knew very well that post was town. He knew I was town. He puts it out there that I'm one of those heading up scumhunting. He planted this seed in order for it to grow into a mislynch. All it would take was his blood to accomplish this goal and buy back the day he made scum lose from his misfire. Again, he could have gone with either me or DJD from his first comments of the game.

While this would seem to be the part where I vote DJD, someone else seems to orchestrate something more sinister. Someone who has more strings to pull. Someone who I sense a double standard from since he agreed with what DJD said without later questioning his "town coaching" bologna.

VOTE: Paschendale

Again, you can cry "OMGUS" all you want, but the case is clear that you have focused your efforts primarily on two people. Your votes have remained on and off me despite Sala, even taking caution not to virtually hammer since-proven scum rather than be motivated to do it yourself from what he did.

Whine whine whine. Don't vote for yourself.

Why say this and not vote Sala? This looks more like a boxing referee telling the man down to get up rather than start a count that everyone knows will reach 10. The most likely motivation is that you are scum and you didn't want to put him into a position for someone to hammer or worse, do him in yourself. Your second focus was on Sala and only by way of using me to further the link that Sala himself started. If anything, you're probably orchestrating this lynch right now to do McStab in should I get the noose. You said it yourself in Post 239,

If PG flips scum, I'll feel pretty confident about McStab being town.

And yet, from what I have shown, Sala already blatantly slipped McStab as town (see McStab case). You attach McStab's life to my flip, which if my suspicions are correct, you know will end up giving reason to incite his lynch. I would have much more easily gone for the DJD wagon had you not made the mistake of lining up lynches so the likeliest townie, the one who can probably help us the most, will, in your book, be next for the rope. And before you say "I'll be less confident in a town-tell on McStab if PG flips town," from what you have already given in reasoning during this new vote, if you are scum, you know that McStab is a goner once I hang.

P-edit: DJD, go look back at Pasch's post, especially the excerpt he took from Post 105. Even if Pasch is scum, he admits that we weren't buddying.

[ProsecutorGodot]

I'm thinking Greywing is town. What's incriminating about him? That he called you scum? You already admitted you quit reading my thoughts when I called you a scum read. Read on and see the rest of the reasoning.

Gnarl is leaning scum. Now that I put what I did out there about McStab, here's what GG said in Post 197.

If Om flips town though I would still lynch McStab because his interaction is pretty low except for jumping on the "wagon" to lynch you started by either Whiskers or Om iirc, and a bit of interplay.

Now that we know McStab is that much more likely town, this comes into question. But I'd rather try for the one I see as the scum leading the other three (now two) first rather than try to work our way up the chain. Lynch their leader and they lose hope.

Mala is a null read for me. She pursued McStab earlier (again proven likely town since), but changed her mind about him with the flip.

And who (besides Sala) isn't interested in self-preservation? Who won't fight tooth and nail to live? My vote on Pasch may seem desperate to you, but, then again, you didn't even read any of my reasoning when you saw "DJD is likely scum." And I still think that since that shows me you aren't reading very carefully.

[ProsecutorGodot]

EBWDP: Now that I look at Whiskers's post, that reminds me of what I think the scum's tactics are now as far as shooting goes.

"Wait until L-1. If you miss, you were going to die anyway."

They'll probably claim at L-1, then shoot. They work out as much as they can about the Masons, then take the shot when they are about to go.

[ProsecutorGodot]

Also, Paschen can probably see his plan going full speed ahead. As soon as Sala died, he started up a quicklynch that everyone is believing. His job isn't too hard, it seems. And if I die, it won't seem much harder to get McStab lynched D2 since, again, he has effectively lined him up for the next lynch.

[ProsecutorGodot]

You are, I know. You just seemed to speculate on McStab being scum before heel-face-turning to call him town.

[ProsecutorGodot]

And now here you are going about lining people up for the lynch.

As I've explained (you did read that, right?) Sala, and later Pasch, planted a link that he knew would lead to a mislynch once he died. That's why he rolled over and self-voted. He completed his mission in establishing the two of us as partners on the same side. Just to see his "nemesis" take the fall once his slips doomed him. He took the shot knowing it would knock someone off his wagon if successful or buy a mislynch if it backfired.

come now, the post after i said i stopped reading implies i finished.

It implies you didn't care at the time. And not caring implies you know who is and isn't scum. This looks like scum actively pushing for the quicklynch more than the one who started it. I still stand firm in Pasch/DJD scum due to one taking care not to get Sala killed and the other having shown he was distancing, but I think this is a more likely lynch for this day now that I see DJD's responses.

VOTE: DoubleJD

@greygnarl: Obvcoaching? Why would I coach someone like him? Even if the real scum coached him through some encrypted message, he probably didn't even take that cue right.

[ProsecutorGodot]

Am I not allowed to change my mind about

McStab

Sala from looking at Sala's

posts

flip?

I had been working on the assumption that Sala just had a very loud and grating playstyle. In one game that I had read through the town rushed to a lynch on somebody who was loud and grating like Sala, but he flipped innocent. Sala joined in 2010 and I couldn't see an experienced scum drawing so much attention to themselves early in the game.

And I believe that completes our remaining scumteam. Why run on this ludicrous assumption? Wait, I have a guess. You're setting Mala up in order to give the town another option for a mislynch. Here everyone is following Paschendale's lie that "He coached Sala, he must be scum."

Well, since I'm at L-1, here goes. I'm a mason. Fire away if you dare.

[ProsecutorGodot]

I wasn't okay with linking people together when we wouldn't be able to tell if they were scum or masons. Now that we have a scum flip, we go for the scum associated with the dead scum.

He latched himself on to someone. Why not the opponent he was butthurt with?

Show me where those cues are, then. If you're so sure I've been coaching the scum, what proof do you have as far as how the one proven scum has acted?

How is my case on you ridiculous? How can you say that when you continue to admit you don't care because you're riding a mislynch wagon? And once again line people up for the lynch? You realize you are continually screwing yourself over. Once I flip green,

you're

the one who's next.

[ProsecutorGodot]

@Mod: I would like to request a prod for Pressed Bunson. PB isn't even in the activity overview and the game has gone on for 4 days now.

[ProsecutorGodot]

Let's clear up reasoning as to the greygnarl case.

Town: Sala, ProsecutorGodot
They both seem like they made some odd posts that have been taken way to seriously. PG seems to be trying to go scumhunting and Sala seems like he is trying to protect himself. This is a mistake but I can see it being just a bit of mixed up priorities from a fairly new player..

GG helped this link along as well by making the two of us his

ONLY

town reads. Three players who have used the connection Sala started. One to hatch the idea (Sala). One to further the thought (GG). One to start a quicklynch (Paschendale). One to push the quicklynch (DJD). Put that together and you get the plan that you're about to fall into.

At least Paschendale and Greygnarl sit back to let the rest of the town take out one of its own. DJD is artificially pushing harder and harder for you to simply end this day to the point of purposeful ignorance and trying to make it look like scumhunting when it's quite clear he's following the wagon. Don't forget that we have time. We have 10 days. We can talk this out and not let today's scum death excite us into trying to make it two for two the very same MeatWorld day. That's what the scum want. That's what you are about to let them have. Calm down and let's try this again.

Besides, we still have one player that remains unaccounted for. Where's Pressed Bunson? Or her replacement if we need one?

[ProsecutorGodot]

You keep arguing that its unsafe to pair people together, but theres fatal flaws here that scum wont admit. Such as

1) A VT's best move under pressure is to claim mason.
2) VT's should be acting as much like masons as possible
3) Scum wont be firing on potential pairings, yet pairings can help find scum

I just remembered this little bit DJD brought up. Apparently, only the last point matters since it suits his wants. There's a constant in this pattern. And it looks like that constant involves DJD being scum.

[ProsecutorGodot]

Welp, so much for this game. I tried, but good luck catching the scum I won't get to see hang.

I'll just take my last cup of coffee and drink it before I die.

[ProsecutorGodot]

This was an interesting game. Even though I won by alignment, this was quite a personal disaster. I had my reads reversed and just went for anything I could to stay alive. I can tell now I shouldn't have claimed mason. At the same time, I hope this can become a case example that speedwagons are bad. Had McStab not shot for Hyperion, I think this game could easily have gone on to be a scum win. Greywing offered himself as the next lynch, which gave him a 50/50 shot with how many would have been alive. McStab was very much under the radar after Sala and I flipped. I think in his position, I would have waited another day or two unless the pressure was on, which I don't think would have happened in his case.

But hooray! We won! And great job to Hyp for drawing three misfires. I learned in the dead QT that Sala died shooting me, but then I got lynched. Not sure how much good that did if any at all.

[ProsecutorGodot]

I didn't know what to think of it. I knew it could have been scum trying to get towncred, but at the same time, you could have been a vanilla townie trying to draw in the scumkill. I knew for a fact you couldn't have been a mason because the real masons knew who they were. And since I wasn't one, that ruled you out as a mason. I put you down as leaning town for realizing what I was trying to do and trying to help me, even though our gambit attempt was misguided.