Because that's what I should have done the last time we met.
Open 479: White Flag (Game Over)
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In post 36, Remembering Sunday wrote:What's odd about it? DCL is claiming to have found scum after 20 odd posts and my post was clearly a sarcastic one. Even if Llama is scum then DCL has found him through pure luck and not by some wonderful piece of logic.
It was the vibe of "Don't look here, they're over there!" and the slight suggestion that you knew DCL was town. And this post gives me the feeling that you're saying he's right for the wrong reason. I'm not seeing Llama as scum at the moment but if RS flips scum this is a thought worth coming back to.
I'm tending to take RachMarie's posts at face value for now. I saw her post 25 as more of a simple request for clarification than anything else.
In post 50, ac1983fan wrote:Oh, I know that there is no reason, I just found it hair-raising.
How could youknowthere was no reason?
My concern with DCL is his nervousness about the RVS. After just 14 game posts he calls it "really lame", and later describes it asVERY uninformative(his bolding). Yet without those posts he wouldn't have been able to bring us out of it the way he did so they did have some value. Makes me wonder what else was there that he wants us to forget..-
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Having looked at his previous game I'm comfortable with my vote on RS. Following the success of his early move there I would have expected him to have tried something similar here, or at least supported DCL's vote on Llama, not mocked it, if he were town.
In post 108, Remembering Sunday wrote:Come on really? Consider what I'd have to type to take that into consideration "the scum must be quaking in their boots.....unless of course you are scum DCL" As I've said it was purely a sarcastic remark about the likely hood of DCL having actually found scum.
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Reading too much into it again, it's not meant to be anything quite as nasty as that, as I said just highlighting it's unlikely to be correct (albeit in a rather cheeky way)
Yet using the RVS wagon to spot scum worked for you in Newbie 1331 so why decry the attempt here? It may not normally be very effective but it can turn up trumps sometimes.
In post 104, Remembering Sunday wrote:For me I've got two who I'm getting scummy vibes from, RachMarie and ac1983.
I'll second the request for reasons on these. Is there anything more than what you originally said about RachMarie?
In post 108, Remembering Sunday wrote:The last point is to everyone else as well, seems to me you're all voting on the back of one completely non-serious post. Not sure if you've noticed but CDB post 24 "Hooray! We found scum!" Is not too dissimilar yet has received no attention whatsoever.
It didn't go completely unnoticed. Although I only queried it because I wasn't sure who he was referring to. I didn't see it as similar to yours..-
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And yet earlier he wrote:In post 120, Remembering Sunday wrote:
Just seems a strange thing to say, surely we'd ask questions anyway, not like we need permission.In post 63, RachMarie wrote:If anyone has any questions about me, feel free to ask, I have nothing to hide.I have nothing to hide is such a nothing statement.
In post 42, Remembering Sunday wrote:it's a bit of light hearted banter which I wasn't afraid to post becauseI've got nothing to hide.
So it's ok for him to use but a nothing statement when Rach uses it?
Why are you bringing this up as if it's something fresh when it's been referred to directly or indirectly three times in the seven posts immediately preceding yours, and has been commented on since page two?
Speculation: Ac thinks his scumbuddy RS looks like getting lynched so jumps on his wagon to get town-cred, then see a chance to push a counterwagon on Rach while being non-committal about it himself.
In post 127, Equinox wrote:Also, in your post 100, you vote RachMarie for a case petroleumjelly made on page 2; why the change of heart on what you consider content?
Ac actually voted RS in post 100, not RM.
In post 131, petroleumjelly wrote:3.)Huntress, could you give a bit more detail for why you are "more comfortable" with your vote on Remembering Sunday? I do not have much time to read other games for meta purposes, so I would appreciate the Cliff's Notes version.
It was this post mainly:In post 31, Remembering Sunday wrote:
Vote: thenewearth
Suspicious of anyone who's jumping on people this early, was the exact reason I put my vote on someone already with a vote, baiting in those scum.
He used RVS to bait scum and caught one. I wouldn't necessarily expect him to do the same thing again but his attitude towards DCL's vote on Llama doesn't fit with his own experience here..-
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I agree that RS's last post didn't feel like a townie about to be lynched. CDB and ac are currently my next scum picks after RS. If RS flips scum then CDB's post 44 is significant.
In post 149, ChannelDelibird wrote:
The argument feels contrived. "Makes me wonder what else he wants us to forget";In post 146, LlamaFluff wrote:Try this: Why is Huntress "scum knowing DCL is town" or whatever you claimed instead of town who thinks DCL is scum but prefers another vote?
That part was speculation, not an argument, and was said partly to see what responses it would draw..-
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In post 182, Mert wrote:!Huntress in #163 you said that RSScum meant CDB's #44 is significant. As we now know RS was town, how does that affect your reads on CDB and ac1983fan who were your "next scum picks"?
It doesn't affect my read on ac at all, and just means that CDB'S vote on Rach was not an attempt to start a counterwagon to the RS wagon, which it's timing suggested it might be, which would have meant that Rach was more likely to be town.
I haven't had time to do more than skim the recent posts but I'll be able to do a proper post tomorow afternoon..-
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In post 167, mikeburnfire wrote:Right now, I have my sights on CDB, DCXVII, and Huntress, based on previous interactions and rush on RememberingSunday.
What interactions were these, what do you think was scummy about them, and what do you mean by the "rush" on RS? (That is, assuming you're not considering a single vote, the hammer, to constitute a rush.)
In post 170, mikeburnfire wrote:Early on you pushed for llama's lynch, but also grouped him with R-Sunday and R-Marie. I agree with Delibird when he says that you were casting a big net, especially since your reasons for killing Sunday were tenuous. Furthermore, it's a scummy maneuver. As in, it's something I'd expect a scum to do: go after a townie, but group them in with another townie and a scum-mate (which would be Rachmarie).
Where did CDB say or imply that? All I could see is where he thought DCL was being too quick to name possible lynchees, a statement he withdrew in his next post. Without a scum-flip how can you tell the difference between scum doing what you're describing here and townies naming a group of suspects? What in particular makes you think it's scummy in this case?
In post 170, mikeburnfire wrote:As for the rest of you,how about a little discussion or justification for your votes?
Does this apply to you too?
In post 176, mikeburnfire wrote:Maybe I am being a hypocrite here, or maybe not. I feel I'm justified for trying to find connections between players, but you're not because the reasons that you gave were really weak. You thought they weren't acting very townie. It's a pretty big leap to say that if one is scum, another is too..
I don't like this but I'm not sure it's scummy though. You may not agree with the outcome but if it's ok for you to try to find connections then it's ok for anyone else too.
In post 178, mikeburnfire wrote:Done for the night. Hopefully a few more people will decide to participate in the game soon.
This was written just seven and a half hours after the thread opened for the day. The implication that people who hadn't posted yet were deliberately not doing so gives a bad vibe.
In post 186, mikeburnfire wrote:They weren't counterwagons because the case against them wasn't strong.
In order to say this, you needed to have done rather more reading than you claimed you had.
In post 179, RachMarie wrote:I was kinda surprised that RS was not scum. I really thought he would flip scum so now I have to relook at some other people too aggh.
This looks a bit overdone. Why did that flip mean more of a reread than a scumflip would have? Who in particular are you looking at?
In post 194, Hiraki wrote:Mikeburnfire is getting a load of unneeded attention.
I'll echo the request for an explanation of this.
In post 203, ac1983fan wrote:So you expect us to just believe that your intentions are what you state they are? Because that's kind of a stretch.
Do you have any reason to believe they are otherwise? Looking back through your posts I can't see you mentioning anything about it earlier.
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In post 209, mikeburnfire wrote:A combination of gut feeling and an attempt to spark conversation, I think.
Which posts caused the gut feeling? And that reply doesn't explain what you meant by the "rush".
I see you've now expanded on the above in post 236
In post 236, mikeburnfire wrote:DCL was run up quickly, then a lot of votes suddenly switched to R.Sunday. It's an oversimplification, but that's what I felt was happening.
The first five votes on DCL was an RVS wagon. The first three people to vote RS didn't switch from DCL. In fact only acfan and Mert switched directly from DCL to RS and there didn't appear to be much sudden about the wagon as a whole.
The rest of post 209 is just evasive.
In post 222, mikeburnfire wrote:
With regards to Huntress, eh... you make a good point, but she seems to actively be paying attention, and she could have just been really excited about catching scum in a farçe. I'm not ready to call it a scum move.In post 220, ChannelDelibird wrote:#134 - Huntress on RS's "nothing to hide" hypocrisy; this is the sort of opportunistic line of attack that suits scum because it's so absolute. It's a "you state contradicting beliefs" argument: cold, calculated and emotionless. It's too framed. Hypocrisy happens to everyone. Having already not liked Huntress before, I'm going to start the day with a VOTE: Huntress.
So you're both taking what was a minor part of my case against RS and making it look like a major thing, CDB calling it "too framed", and MBF saying I might have been "really excited" about it.
There have been two or three posts now that give me the feeling that MBF is trying to buddy up to me.
In post 199, RachMarie wrote:Friday I got busy with other things, I came back to the game to do my ISOs on Sat to find that Mike had replaced in. Simple.
I work from home and have MS open on a tab, but I am not always looking at that tab because I do other things as well.
I had a null read on Rach from Day one, apart from the lurkiness which is not unusual for her, but this post felt odd as she had already said she was around so why did she feel the need to imply that she might not have been? I can understand if she didn't want to post while she was still catching up but why imply she wasn't around if she was?
I have a slight scum-read on Llama for post 174. I don't see that scum couldn't have made the post MBF did in twilight so don't understand why he would discount the possibility, (I see he's repeated it 237, it just looks like wifom to me), and I don't like his claim that DCL hammered "because" it would be suspicious if he didn't. There's nothing in DCL's posts that to suggest that this was in his mind at the time..-
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In post 246, LlamaFluff wrote:@Hunt - DCL is attempting to simplify him hammer into him acting on a false dillema (hammer or no hammer) and because he picked hammer, he cant be called scum for the vote. That just doent read as town trying to defend themselves but moreso scum that is overzealous in trying to wipeout something that can be used against them by doing such.
My initial reaction to DCL's hammer was that it was a bit quick, but after a second look I thought it was probably ok. My only concern there is that DCL didn't give the explanation for it that I thought he would, and instead has just been protesting about being called scummy for it. Which makes me wonder if I was wrong about his motive for it in the first place but I can't see what benefit there would be for a scum-DCL to attract attention to himself in that way. It wasn't as if there seemed to be any danger of the lynch not going through.
From a review of Hiraki the picture I'm getting is that he seems to be looking at everyone and no-one. His vote is currently on acfan but the only reason he has given is that he wants some reads from him, and that was back on Day one. We're still waiting for more substance from acfan but is that the only reason or is there more?
In post 225, Hiraki wrote:
Those were the two leading wagons. Still not keen as in I'm not willing to compromise.In post 221, ChannelDelibird wrote:
"Still not keen"?In post 128, Hiraki wrote:Still not keen on Remembering or Huntress.
This is the second time Hiraki has used inaccurate voting information to back up his words.
It's good to see Rach is posting but again she is implying she hasn't been around when she clearly has..-
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In post 269, mikeburnfire wrote:Still, ac1999fan jumped onto both wagons, and has been throwing his vote around in a similar manner today (while hiding behind others).
Acfan's vote for DCL was the first post of the game. He didn't jump on that wagon because there was no wagon to jump on and according to him his vote on DCL was purely random. What do you mean by "throwing his vote around in a similar manner today"? He has only voted once in a post you described as "legit scum-hunting" and you said he had a "pretty good argument".
In post 269, mikeburnfire wrote:What were the other posts that gave you that vibe?
It was mainly that post and also post 215. The tone seemed to say a little bit more than just stating facts..-
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In post 290, LlamaFluff wrote:I heard him lurking and him getting called scummy quite a bit. The wagon never took off, but for some reason it got mentioned a whole lot when it sure looked to me like he was just flaking out of the game.
Who actually called him scummy apart from CDB (due to a theory re his random vote), and perhaps RS? It seems to me that the latter half of the posts mentioning him were initiated by yourself.
In post 279, DCLXVI wrote:And you know what, i get it, know one is going to be voting llama unfortunately so...
Llama is probably my second highest suspect at the moment and if necessary I would be prepared to vote there. Also acfan, Hiraki and Rach (although I'm not so sure there as I've been wrong about her before)..-
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Is thatyourinterest, or interest by the players in general? If the latter it's probably because we've reached the stage where we need a flip to give us more information. Although we could do with hearing more from you about your thoughts on the other players.
If MBF flips scum I'm looking at Hiraki and acfan as most likely to be his partners.
In post 257, ac1983fan wrote:Dunno. I hypothesize that Mert is scum based on my reasoning up there; RachMarie and MBF give me some scumfeels as noted in previous posts.
The first post acfan links here merely says that he can't take Rach's words at face value. True, but it's not a reason for suspecting her. The second link is to his comment on Rach's post 39, which he says that He's "not sure if that's a scumtell, but it seems like poor play". Neither link gives any reason for his willingness to vote MBF, as mentioned in post 282. Nor do any of his other posts. Interestingly, MBF does not query this at all in spite of both commenting on and addressing acfan in later posts. I'm seeing distancing/bussing here.
I think my suspicion on Llama would be lowered a bit if MBF is scum as I don't think he'd be defending him quite like that if they were scumpartners.
Welcome to the game vegie! My suspicion on your predecessor had slipped back more or less to null but your reason for voting DCL has reawakened it. Which people apart from Llama has DCL attempted to start bandwagons on?
In post 303, vegie wrote:Here, the games are much more intuition-based while the other place I play is much more logic-based.
I think you'll find plenty of logic here too. It very much depends on individual playstyles or game situations..-
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In post 318, ac1983fan wrote:Post 185 by Havingfitz is a case against MBF, which I found to be logical and so my statement in 203 was meant to be saying I agree with the case. Sorry if that wasn't clear.
No, it wasn't clear. Does this mean you also agree with his FoS on DCL in that post?
In post 328, mikeburnfire wrote:huntress wrote:(1)In order to say this, you needed to have done rather more reading than you claimed you had.
(2) The implication that people who hadn't posted yet were deliberately not doing so gives a bad vibe.
(3)There have been two or three posts now that give me the feeling that MBF is trying to buddy up to me.
Here's the second vote for me, in which (1)having fitz's argument is repeated (2) I am criticized for being impatient and (3) Huntress thinks that I'm buddying up to her. When pressed, she has no good explanation for why she thinks that last one.
Firstly, the points quoted above were onlypartof what I said about you. Secondly, (1) That wasn't a repeat of fitz's arguement; it was a comment on your reply to his point; your saying that the cases weren't strong implies that you read a lot more than you originally claimed. (2) I didnotcriticize you for being impatient; your use of the word "decide" looked like you intended to make it appear that people were intentionally not posting. (3) I did say why I thought you were buddying me. It was in post 271 in case you missed it..-
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In post 348, mikeburnfire wrote:1. At the core, it's the same argument. You're both accusing me of lying when I say I overlooked the deadline when I did my first read-through.
I said absolutely nothing about the deadline. That was never my point. Why are you claiming that it was?.-
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This is a vanilla game. We don'thavesolid evidence. We can only go on what we see in the posts and the wording and tone of some of yours tell me you have more chance of being scum than anyone else at the moment. Not much more maybe, but enough for me to be happy with my vote. I'm not sure what you'd call a credible reason, but I think I've given enough to show why I think you're the best lynch today..-
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In post 365, DCLXVI wrote:Thor is town. AC rage quit; scum don't rage quit after a mislynch.
Why are you claiming that ace rage-quit? I can't see anything in his posts that would indicate it and it doesn't sound very likely.
In post 366, RachMarie wrote:that is a good point
Are you sure it is a ragequit though ?
oh wait he was the hammer yeah, I could see a case for that...
What case do you see?
I'm still looking at Llama, acefan (now Thor), and Rach as I haven't seen anything to change my mind there from the reading I've done so far today.
Havingfitz's opening post gave me an odd vibe so I'll be taking a closer look there.
I'm in two minds about DCL. My gut says town but there have been a couple of things, mentioned in my previous posts, which make me not so sure, and his apparent knowledge of why ace replaced out adds to that.
Currently got a null read on Vegie, Pj and Mert but still have more rereading to do. In the meantime:
Vote: Llama.-
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In post 389, RachMarie wrote:http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=21538 Newbie 1227, and actually he rage quite over the cop being outted (he was from Epic Mafia originally). But he also was not that happy about his derp hammer. After he ragequit, Thor replaced in and eventually won us the game.
Looking at that game I don't think the quitting had any relation to the hammer. It seemed to be a direct result of the mod error and possibly the player's lack of time. In any case, acefan is an experienced player so is not likely to react the same way as a newbie might.
In post 387, DCLXVI wrote:He is still onsite playing so he didn't flake, he just lead a mis-lynch after which MBF got pissed at him so maybe AC took it personally? It really is the only explanation I can think of.
Scum quitting in that circumstance doesn't make since, they have the advantage right now.
Has he done something like this before? The problem is you haven't made a single mention of acefan the whole game, apart from your response to his random vote, and then when he replaces out you immediately insist that makes him town, despite the fact you don't knowwhyhe replaced out. What else about him makes you think he is town?
In post 390, vegie wrote:He has done nothing to ease my suspicions. So far, his leadership has been poor and we need to take a new direction.
How is voting for DCL "taking a new direction"? He was one the the top two wagons on day two and you voted him then too. Are you saying you disagree with the votes made so far today? If so, can you say why?.-
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In post 395, RachMarie wrote:Huntress if you give Thor a bit of time I am sure the slot will be more clarified.
What I was trying to clarify was your reason for agreeing with what seemed to me to be a strange statement by DCL; you seemed to follow his lead too easily. It wasn't about acefan/Thor..-
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In post 427, petroleumjelly wrote:In the end, I am thinking both scumkills may have in large part been motivated by a "do not leave a pattern/obvious reason" mentality. I would like others to chime in on this, though.
I had a look at Hiraki's ISO at the beginning of the Day but couldn't see anything worth pursuing at that point as I was already suspicious of his main suspect, acefan. However, the fact that you raised this is leading me to wonder whether there is something that I've missed. In particular, the possibility that there may be more to the exchanges between the two of you than I first thought. But then again, if there was, why would you raise it? That just leads me in fruitless circles. So I guess my response is: What good did you think it would do to bring up this subject now when any speculation on it is likely just to lead to endless wifom? I'm not against NK discussion as such but in this case I don't see the point.
In post 427, petroleumjelly wrote:7.)Huntress, could you explain the "mod error" theory you made for why ac1983fan may have replaced out? (I am also not understanding RachMarie's reference to Newbie 1227 which might have been made on this topic?)
Rach was using that newbie game to back up her support for DCL's rage-quit theory after I asked her if she had seen such a thing before, but in fact it didn't fit the theory at all as the player in that game quit because of a mod error, not because of a mislynch. Whether she was protecting or supporting a scum-partner, buddying up to Thor, or just mis-remembering something I don't know, but my suspicion of her has gone up a notch or two..-
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In post 448, LlamaFluff wrote:MBF was catching up and trending to the RS vote. You saw this and hammered RS before MBF got completely caught up, threw around "deadline" buzz words and such too later when that wasnt really an issue. To belive you are town I would have to believe that you did something to intentionally "look more townie" with little other motivation, which I dont. As town you probably would have made a comment still making it clear you support the lynch but wanting MBF to finish catching up.
Do you have meta on DCL to know what he, as opposed to a generic townie, would have done as town?
In post 448, LlamaFluff wrote:Also it couldnt have been too townie if you started calling MBF scum out the gate D2 either way when he appeared to express intent to hammer after catching up.
Can you explain what you meant by this please?
In post 454, RachMarie wrote:In my experience most of the very heated battles like this where both peeps think the other one has to be scum often are T v T...
Or one of them is scum who thinks he's being attacked for the wrong reasons. That could bring out a sense of frustration. For example, DCL's Day one meta case against LLama, or Llama's claim that DCL said he hammered RS in order to "look townie", which is not how I saw DCL's statement. Of course DCL's claim that the hammer couldn't be seen as scummy, but only as townie, doesn't help his case because it can certainly be seen as either.
In post 457, havingfitz wrote:Also...if Thor is in fact town, I do not see why scum would leave him alive over Hiraki when Hiraki had at least received a modicum of suspicion his way while no one iirc was really listening to his suspicions. So....as incredibly awe inspiring a mafia player as Thor is...I mean seriously people...come on....it's Thor. OMG!!!!! It's like Beiber with a beard mania. Why is he still in the game if he's town? And oh by the way...his main accuser died last night instead of him.
Why would Thor be more likely to be NK'd than someone like say Llama or Pj?
In post 459, RachMarie wrote:umm hello he replaced in during the night...
Need to wait through another night cycle before that response is valid.
Not really. There were two to three days of night left after he replaced in for scum to make their decision..-
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@ Havingfitz: You didn't reply to my question as to why you thought Thor would have been NK'd rather than players like Pj or Llama. I can think of two reasons but I would like to hear yours.
This is bad. Why should someone with no votes on them be exempt from suspicion? And why don't you want fitz to make his suspicions clear? I also have an FoS on Thor, among others. Does that make me scummy too?In post 485, RachMarie wrote:Well I do think FoSs especially on someone who has no votes on them to be a scummy move... So yeah atm very happy with my vote....
@ Vegie: Are you mafia?
The main reason I'm voting Llama, apart from post 174 which I commented on at the bottom of post 240, is his defence of MBF in post 255. I felt then, and still feel, that it seemed a a stretch, like he was trying to make it look stronger than it was. Particularly the part where he said that Scumhunter took a bizzare amount of flack for lurking/flaking. I questioned this in post 296 and looking back just now I see I never got a reply to that.
Havingfitz and Rach are currently runners-up for my vote with Thor in fourth place, based on my suspicion of his predecessor..-
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Huh! IIn post 500, RachMarie wrote:mind blown here?? you think there are three scum in this game? and you think that Fitz and Thor and I are a scum team??? But you think Llama is even more suspect?? that would make 4 scum?? huh???? Way to misrep too...
I meant obviously I could see not voting but FoSing instead on someone who is at say L-1, but to FoS instead of voting on someone who has no votes at all ... You cant see how that would ping my scumdar???knowthere are three scum. And I'm guessing that Llama, fitz and yourself are the most likely. I don't think that should surprise you. How did I misrep you? But I think you may be misunderstanding the meaning of an FoS. It merely states that one has suspicion on someone. The number of votes they have on them is irrelevant. It's certainly not scummy to use the term, even if it's not so commomly used nowadays..-
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@ Mod: My vote for Mert isn't shown on the last vote count. You've still got me voting for Llama.
@ Vegie: I'd like to see your response to post 540. And did my question in post 499 bother you?
And I agree that you should probably just replace out if you don't intend to play to win as you seemed to be saying in #550..-
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@ Rach: Being "easy to lynch" doesn't mean you can't be scum.
On the subject of FoSes, why did you only accuse havingfitz of being scummy for using one when five other players have all done it as well? Acefan's FoS in post 203 was particularly notable as you posted shortly after and didn't even mention it. Acefan didn't actually have a vote on anyone at the time so had no good reason not to vote you then.
As it looks like Mert is being replaced I'll move my vote from there for the moment but I may well go back there in the future.
Vote: RachMarie.-
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@ Thor: That wasn't a case, that was a question; and not the reason why I voted Rach. It looks like you've just ignored my other comments on her. Three of my Day two posts mention my growing suspicion of her and there have been more today. I'll try to put a summary together tomorrow but it boils down to my feelings about the motivation behind some of her posts.
There's also an element of PoE as I think DCL, CDB and probably Fitz, are town; I'm iffy about Thor and Pj (in Pj's case it's more that I'm afraid I'm missing something there rather than anything else); which leaves Llama, Mert and Rach. Of the three I'm most confident about Rach and Llama. My reread also pointed at Mert as a possibility.
I see CDB's been doing some selective reading on my interactions with vegie. It's mostly due to vegie that my read on that slot moved from null to town.
I think there's more I need to address but that will have to wait for tomorrow now..-
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I know your reading comprehension is better than that, so stop misrepping me. It only takes literally a few seconds to look back through my ISO to check that I had said what I thought I said but much longer, for me anyway, to put it all together in a way that makes sense. I didn't have the time to do that then. I'm going out now but will set out my case after I get back..-
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I voted Rach in post 582.In post 634, havingfitz wrote:Huntress and CDB...your votes aren't doing any good where they are at. Huntress and Mert aren't going to get 5 votes before 1230 EST tomorrow. Unless you prefer my lynch to either Rach or DCL...I would suggest you vote one of them.
Mod: You've got me down as voting twice on the last vote count..-
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Case on Rach:
Day one her only vote was her random vote on CDB which she never moved despite not apparently having any suspicion there. Her only suspicion seemed to be DCL but she never voted him. In post 78 she said "We have peeps who have not spoke up or have barely spoke up. We need more discussion. I do agree that it has not ALL been hot air in the past 4 pages. I should be able to come up with a list of preliminary reads soon.", but her only post after that was a prod-dodge.
Day two she said she "really thought he[RS] would flip scum", despite having not previously mentioning him. The lack of mention could have been explained by her absence but for the incongruency of her statement about that absence. She says MBF is her "top" scum read implying there are others but doesn't say who they are.
Spoiler: Day two comments
Day 3 she seemed too eager to clear Thor by agreeing with DCL's statement about a possible rage-quit, something she said she'd seen before but when I asked for an example she gave one which wasn't the same thing at all. (And acefan's posts didn't give me any impression he would do that). In post 403 she mentions doing an ISO of Fitz but no indication she actually ever did one. There seems to be more just chatting with Thor and complaining about lurkers than interest in following up a scumread. She then says she is happy with her vote because Fitz FoSes Thor. I still don't see why voting a top scumread and FoSing a second is scummy. Her explanation seems to be that it's because Thor has a solid rep and she is easy to lynch, which has nothing to do with their alignments in this game. She still doesn't appear to have any other suspects than Fitz and I don't like the way she pushes the "easy lynch" card..-
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The only one I have strong doubts about there is Llama.In post 651, DCLXVI wrote:given her wagon I have no expectation of her flipping anything other than town..-
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It was actually the DCL wagon, not Fitz's, that yours was counter to. There were no votes on Fitz for a time due to the Vegie sideshow.In post 656, RachMarie wrote:I still am pretty sure Fitz is scum.... Notice how my wagon soddenly soared when we started focusing on Fitz...
@ DCL: Why, with around 12 hours still to go before the deadline, did you hammer someone you think is town? If you are town wouldn't it have been better to wait in case there was a late swing, or to see who else might hammer? CDB had said he would post today and I was interested in seeing whether Thor might switch to secure a lynch.
I still think you're town but I'm finding some of your play is straining that view..-
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Who's lurking? Have you forgotten some of us are not in your time zone?In post 685, DCLXVI wrote:And the trend of lurking continues into lylo....-
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I will when I've had time to get my thoughts together, which will probably this evening, but no guarantees.
One thing that I did notice though, was your comment that llama is not likely to be scum with mert. Was that because they seemed to be voting together most of the time, or is there another reason? Because I do see them as possible partners..-
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@ DCL: For all your impatience, you don't seem too eager to reply to my question in post 688.
Seen it before. Done it too. Which is why I don't put too much faith in vote count analysis.In post 676, Thor665 wrote:I would say that's a safe bet. It's possible it happened at some point, but generally it does not. Certainly don't think I've ever seen it happen every day (and now I have a new scum strategy for a mountainous setup...)
I think there were two different cases. DCL's, and mine, the main part of which is explained in post 499.In post 676, Thor665 wrote:What is the case everyone was shopping on Llamafluff yesterday, I may wish to sheep it.
Interesting note, the slot you replaced also had a scum read on DCL so wouldn't this theory apply to you too? (Not that I think it's a valid tell but if you do perhaps in this case it is.)In post 702, Jake from State Farm wrote:interesting note, the slot thor replaced also had a town read on DCL and I am always suspect when a person coming in has a near identical read, more often than not I have seen that coming from scum.
Still seeing Llama and Mert/Jake as most likely to be scum and I'm fairly sure DCL isn't a partner to either of them. Which leaves one of Fitz, Pj and Thor for the third. I'm tempted to think that Pj is the joker in the pack but I've nothing to back this up yet. I'll be interested to see what he has to say about the NKs.
What I really need to do is a meta-read of DCL to make sure of my read of him but that may take some time..-
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My read on DCL is much the same as it has been most of the game. He comes across as town but I keep finding myself disagreeing with what he says and does. As I said in my last post, I don't see him as partner to either Llama or Mert/Jake.In post 724, havingfitz wrote:Llama....PJ and Huntress....thoughts in DCL? (if you have already stated them just quote or update please)
Where are you going with this? I think we can assume that the scum do have reasons for their kills, even if that reason is to give as little information as possible, so do you have a point to make about them? None of the previous White Flags on the wiki have had the scum missing kills so why do you find it so remarkable here? Or is all this just filler to avoid the fact that you are saying very little about your opinions on the remaining players?In post 716, petroleumjelly wrote:The fact that there have been consistent kills suggests either (i) the scum have not actually really considered the option of no-killing, or (ii) the scum actually have reasons for making the kills they are making, which points away from my earlier theory that the scum are simply trying to be uninformative with their nightkills.
At the moment I'm thinking of voting either Llama or Jake today, but I've still got the feeling I'm missing something so I want to check up on one or two things..-
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I've been trying to get my thoughts on this together but not succeeding so I'm just going to throw out a few posts that may look a bit disjointed but that I'm hoping will help me sort things out.
@ Jake:
You went on to say "DCL is absolutely scum." I know you changed this view later, but what actually was it in those ISOs that gave you that impression?In post 696, Jake from State Farm wrote:so going through a few ISOs, especially the dead (NK'd) people and I am pretty sure scum is DCL/Thor
going to do a full re-read when I have time but a DCL wagon would be where I would vote if I had to right now. Gotta get to work, hopefully can get some more reading tonight..-
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In this post you are talking about something definite which you say you've seen, but as far as I can see you never explained it, saying later that you do not really have a working theory, so what was it you saw here?In post 691, petroleumjelly wrote:2.) Is anybody surprised by the ChannelDelibird kill? Be honest. I want to talk about the nightkills, because this kill has the exact same thing in common as the first two nightkills that is really making me question the scumteam here..-
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Er, no. According to post 755 you originally thought that most people thought DCL was scum; so I'm asking what gave you that impression before you changed your mind after after looking again at the same ISOs.
In post 755, Jake from State Farm wrote:ok so I opened up excel and wrote down all of the votes/suspicions/town reads for the dead people and turns out I was wrong and actually most of the dead people thought DCl was town.
<snip>
The only thing this list tells me is I was wrong when I said more people thought DCL was scummy, turns out more people think he is town..-
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No, it doesn't explain what you initially saw in those ISOs to make you think DCL was scum. It's that that I'm trying to get at.In post 893, Jake from State Farm wrote:Yeah that post explains it all. I wrote down every vote and mention of name and turns out my initial read of the isos were wrong..-
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I'm still waiting for Jake to answer my question that he keeps dodging.
I'm paranoid that I'm wrong about DCL but I'm sticking with my town read on him for the moment.
I've half a mind to vote Pj. One thing that sticks out is the fact that he accused vegie of coming in with an agenda to lynch DCL and later accused Jake of doing exactly the same thing. He has repeatedly claimed that scum see DCL as lynchbait and are trying to lynch him, but this seems to be a false picture as there have really been very few people who have been actively pushing his lynch.
I agree with Pj's explanations of why he think DCL is town as I'm getting the same read myself.
I'm still leaning scum on Llama and town on Fitz. Not sure about Thor and Jake.
I haven't quite got to grips yet with the ins and outs of the recent arguements but it doesn't make any of the participants look good. This is my next task which I've been putting off due to recent RL events (I just wasn't in the mood to cope with it)..-
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You're not willing to hammer someone you claim to think may be scum?In post 944, Jake from State Farm wrote:I won't be hammering anyone I'm not scum.
You don't find it odd that DCL shows up and votes out of the blue?
As for DCL's vote, his unvote in 794 after Llama put a second vote on Fitz in 793 shows he wasn't wanting to risk a premature hammer. If DCL was scum and Fitz town I think DCL would have just left the vote there..-
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1) Post 943 was purely my reaction to what I saw when I opened the thread today and bears no relation to my previous reads which I am still trying to update. Judging from the reactions to it suspect I might not be far wrong.In post 962, havingfitz wrote:I find it suspect that yesterday, in Post 924, you call DCL town (though you are paranoid about it). But you are half considering voting PJ in part for his claiming DCL is lynchbait which you say is painting a false picture. You say there have been very few people actively pushing DCL's lynch. How can you say that when DCL has been the leading counterwagon (or tied with the leading wagon) every day. He came 2 votes of getting lynched both D1 and D2. So the fault you find with PJ's assessment of DCL is not accurate. And yet you are still happy to agree with PJ's reasons (which even he can't exaplain) for finding DCL town.
So you suspect the guy who you erroneously say is painting a picture of the suspicions DCL has garnered and yet you agree with his assessment that DCL is town. What exactly btw do you agree with (considering one the things I found suspect with PJ is his inability TO explain why he thinks DCL is town)? Yet you agree with him (PJ)???????? But could half support lynching him (PJ)?????
You lean scum on Llama and town on me...yet you don't want to vote Llama and now suspect me. Because we are voting the town read you are paranoid about?
And you think DCL comes across as town even though you keep disagreeing with what he says and does.
That doesn't make any sense. Plus you have to admit you have been very lurky lately.
2) The Day 1 wagon on DCL was run up in rvs. By the time you voted him in post 81 only Llama and Mert still had votes there. On Day 2 again it was only Llama and Mert until Vegie came in. MBF came in at the end out of self defence. Day 3 it was the same three again and vegie's vote was removed when CDB returned. So I stand by my statement that there were not many wanting DCL lynched.
3) I agreed with PJ's stated reasons for finding DCL town because I had already seen the same things myself as I've mentioned in previous posts. My agreeing with Pj's description of DCL doesn't stop me considering Pj as scum as he could well be writing out of the knowledge that DCL is town or be defending a scumbuddy, but I don't think the latter is the case here.
4) I haven't said I don't want to vote Llama and haven't changed my town read on you yet (but see point 1 above).
5) DCL's motives come across as town even though I don't agree with some of what he says.
6) I've already explained why I haven't posted so much recently.
I was replying to your post in between driving my son to college and getting food for my daughter. If you'd rather I didn't take the time to answer your post you should have told me.[/sarcasm]In post 989, havingfitz wrote:Where'd you go Huntress? Just a brief cameo? What's on your mind? You waiting to lay down a hammer?
Believe me, I'm getting very tempted to vote you..-
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No, I wouldn't vote you for that. I was just a bit frustrated at coming back and finding more than a page of new posts and your last post irritated me.In post 991, havingfitz wrote:Well don't vote me for annoying you (if that's what your last comment infers). The game's been going on too long for that to be the reason the game ends.
So Huntress....can you envision a scenario where both DCL and I are town considering we both have 2 votes? Assuming you of course are town that would leave three scum with Llama; Jake; Thor and PJ. And with the exception of Llama...all three of them have been around enough since my vote on DCL and DCL/Llama's vote/s on me to end the game.
If you are town you need to vote DCL (unless you have a good answer to the question above that doesn't involve voting me).
No thoughts on DCLs switch on Llama, play in general which you have disagreed with and his ~slip this morning?
I agree that the votes seem to show that you and DCL can't both be town which means that I'm wrong somewhere unless it's Pj and Llama and neither have been on at the same time as the third one since the second votes were placed.
I'm still haven't had time to finish going back over the the last few days so I haven't got my thoughts straight yet.
I didn't see DCL's question about scumpartners as a slip. I thought it was pretty obvious what he was saying.
I'm not going to be pushed into a vote until I'm at least reasonably confident it's the right one..-
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I've had another think and I'm back to the theory that DCL and Fitz are both town.
Llama has been posting elsewhere but not here. Pj has been gone for nearly three days. I think Pj's absence is the only reason we haven't had a hammer yet. Now that DCL and Jake have put second votes on Fitz and DCL it only takes Llama to turn up and his partner, who I'm pretty sure now is Jake, can finish it off.
The only way to avoid that is for DCL and Fitz both to unvote before it's too late..-
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