Open 621 (C9++): The ZAR SHOW S1 Holiday Special - OVER!

[shaddowez]

/confirm

[shaddowez]

VOTE: Lowell

He asked for a wagon, I'm obliging.

[shaddowez]

VOTE: Acryon

Serious vote. Jumped on the BBT wagon when it was gaining steam, then when people stopped talking about him and started voting ABR he joins in to do the same.

[shaddowez]

So you think he is most likely scum?

At this point it's the scummiest thing I've seen. I have no problem with vote jumping, but he doesn't seem to have put any reasoning into his votes, and is just latching onto the wagons that are forming.

[shaddowez]

BBT

- Talk to me about your Anen/Yos reads.

ABR

- Why do you think your "wagon" is all town?

Kop

- Where are you?

Lowell

- So you think I'm scum for placing a serious vote, and actually moving us out of RVS? Interesting.

[shaddowez]

unvote, vote: kmd

I don't like empty votes, especially this early in the game (non-RVS at least). What makes you think kmd is scum?

RVS?

Rofl's post in 32 that you latched onto didn't feel like an RVS vote, nor did the way you agreed in 36. The ABR vote had a little bit more of a lighthearted feel to it, but was still a strange transition.

[shaddowez]

People i don't currently want to lynch becsuse they've done something i like at some point
Lowell
roflcopter
Albert B. Rampage
AlwaysInnocent
kmd4390

List subject to change whenever i feel like it

In general, at this point in the game, i tend to townread people who are active and doing intresting things. None of those are especally strong reads, but they all look like they're actually scumhunting in their own way.

I can understand how you could see most of that list as doing some sort of scumhunting, but what is it that ABR has done that interests you?

[shaddowez]

Shaddowez... Similar to shadows, which is a darkness caused by light, darkness is often associated with evil, and mafia are usually evil...

Half life 3 confirmed
Illuminati confirmed
9/11 was an inside job confirmed

Shaddowez is mafia confirmed.

VOTE: Shaddowez
Forgot the vote part of that RVS post...

Shadowez.
Is this a kind of inside joke?

Not that I'm aware of.

BBT

- Talk to me about your Anen/Yos reads.

ABR

- Why do you think your "wagon" is all town?

Kop

- Where are you?

Lowell

- So you think I'm scum for placing a serious vote, and actually moving us out of RVS? Interesting.

Why did you ask those particular things?

For BBT and ABR, it's because they were posting but not saying much, so I was trying to gather more insight as to their reasoning behind their reads. For Kop, it's because he confirmed in thread but hadn't posted yet since game started.

[shaddowez]

Also, UNVOTE:

Liking acryon's contributions at this point.

[shaddowez]

What do you think of it dan?

It was RVS and insignificant...didn't really pay much attention to it.

You will rarely discover connections on early-D1. However, it is possible to discover anti-connections, i.e., interactions suggesting that two players are unlikely to be scum together.

How do you think you can determine authentic disassociation from distancing?

I am not fully expecting to see people going gung-ho but I'd like to see scum hunting to an extent and using the available time we have to at least draw some sort of connections.

Have you drawn any connections yourself yet?

[shaddowez]

At this point it's the scummiest thing I've seen. I have no problem with vote jumping, but he doesn't seem to have put any reasoning into his votes, and is just latching onto the wagons that are forming.

Do you believe wagon hopping/forming wagons to have negative utility during RVS? If so, why?

Not at all, as it assists in forming patterns and making initial impressions of people both by what any individual is doing, along with reactions to those people. An argument could be made that it's townier than vote parking, but then people can just use that to try for meta.

@kmd- shaddowz reads like a player who is making a showy effort to look like he's being useful, while not being useful. The way he (superfluously) notes that his vote is a "serious vote" in 47, then has a ready-made oh-so-casual response to justify it in 52. He's defending his right to be suspicious and cast a vote more than he's defending the vote itself. So, not so much a try-hard, as a faux-try-hard. Join this wagon.

I'm interested as to why you're applying all of this to Shadow and completely ignoring Kmd. Kmd also stated he had a serious vote on Acryon, he didn't have the chance to explain his vote because Acryon never asked about it.

What is the difference between the two?

I'm interested in this as well.

BBT

- Talk to me about your Anen/Yos reads.

Lowell

- So you think I'm scum for placing a serious vote, and actually moving us out of RVS? Interesting.

It was mostly something to get the game going but a small part of me does believe that scum would have confirmed in the way other people were doing it to avoid making waves.

I don't like that you just tried to claim credit for moving us out of RVS. Small things that scum do to look town.

Eh. To my actual point I tried getting out of Lowell though - is actually moving us out of RVS something that you would scum read somebody for? Not trying to take the credit, but actually doing it.

I like BBT's entry into the game. Particularly the questions pointed to AI. Town.

I note Yos' vociferous defense of AI in 151. My suspicion is that it makes Yos more likely scum and AI more likely town.

But I ask again... why is the shaddowz wagon going nowhere? He started lurking after I called him out, and nothing has happened since.

Could you please explain where you called me out, and/or I started lurking? You voted me in 67, I posted a bunch after that. 139 was when I was sleeping.

kmd

- Are you trying to buddy me in continuing to ask Yos about my placement on their list? If not, what are you trying to get out of it?

[shaddowez]

OK, then I'm not sure I understand your problem with Acryon's earlier play?

It wasn't the wagon hopping in particular, it was randomly jumping onto building wagons with no reasoning of his own.

What do you think of ABR's play? You argue that he's playing mildly, but don't actually express any thoughts on whether you think his current play style is scummy or not.

Speaking of....

ABR

- where'd you go? You never responded to my question, and I'd like more info on your Lucky vote.

[shaddowez]

At this point it's the scummiest thing I've seen. I have no problem with vote jumping, but he doesn't seem to have put any reasoning into his votes, and is just latching onto the wagons that are forming.

Do you believe wagon hopping/forming wagons to have negative utility during RVS? If so, why?

Not at all, as it assists in forming patterns and making initial impressions of people both by what any individual is doing, along with reactions to those people. An argument could be made that it's townier than vote parking, but then people can just use that to try for meta.

Isn't this the reason you voted me? Actually looks someone asked you about it and you answered:

OK, then I'm not sure I understand your problem with Acryon's earlier play?

It wasn't the wagon hopping in particular, it was randomly jumping onto building wagons with no reasoning of his own.

Bad answer.

What makes it a bad answer? Things aren't black and white. You weren't moving onto wagons to pressure people, you weren't starting wagons. You jumped on a wagon that looked like it was gaining steam, then when that one died off and a new one started, you jumped on that one. Both votes were basically naked, and did not look like honest RVS votes. As I said earlier, it was the scummiest thing I had seen, but I've liked your contributions since.

Lowell, why is it that you said one thing about me that was 100% false, I proved it was 100% false, you didnt' respond, then you said another thing about me that was 100% wrong, I proved it was 100% wrong, and you then ingored both points and voted for me with no explanation?

Good luck, Lowell likes coming in, spewing some stuff, and not actually answering questions directed at him.

But if he is town, then we should have a look at BBT.

Based on your explanation in 123, what's making you form this association?

BBT

- You seem to keep popping in and picking apart people's posts, but haven't really provided any information or seem to be looking to understand things. Do you have some thoughts you'd like to share?

Yos

- I can't say I'm a fan of lists since they provide no information, so since you gave one I'll ask about it. What makes Kop null-town but tex null-scum? They've had about the same amount of posts, and neither of them have really said anything groundbreakings.
Are you still voting Lucky because of their lurking, or because you actually think they're more scummy than your only other full scum read, BBT?
What made you change rofl from being "super town" in 151 to "leaning town" in 192?

AI

- Who's your top scum read right now?

[shaddowez]

I don't know why people are so anti-list. Everyone should make a list, even if you don't share it. It forces you to read every single player in the game, and to try and form an opinion on them, even if it's not based on much.

I actually don't disagree with you. I'm anti-"post my list with no info". It makes it look like you're trying to do something, but without any substance as to why people are where they are there's no proof there's any thought behind it.

I don't really have scumreads at this point. However if I have to make a guess, then scum could be among these people:

BBT
Albert B.
KMD
Yosarian

If you don't actually have a scum read, why do you have your vote on ABR? Are you just trying to pressure him?

how is it post 227 and this guy is doing literally the same scummy thing that toffee did in 9 like its just the random vote phase. pick four and say there is scum among them. the probability argument! he's probably right! it's amazing!

Do you think it's less scummy of BBT to have done it earlier than it is for AI to have done it now?

[shaddowez]

Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, all that jazz!

@Mod

- I'll be V/LA through Monday due to the holiday weekend.

[shaddowez]

For me that question is really, who appears the least scum? That would be BBT right now.

Are you sure you're reading up on the same game? I don't necessarily read him as scummy right now, but I definitely wouldn't say most town(or least scummy, in your words)

[shaddowez]

Having been away from the game for a few days, and looking at ISO's and re-reading stuff, I'm actually not a fan of the AI wagon at all. He seems to be being forthright with answering people and explaining things, as well as proactively asking questions and looks to be scum hunting. There was a lot of back and forth early on, but I don't think a lot of what he was saying would be something that scum would come out with.

My two top scumreads at this point are Yos and Lowell.

Yos is being extremely defensive, and while claiming to scum hunt doesn't appear to actually be providing many reasons for his reads, other than using meta in a few circumstances. He's outright said that a lot of the people he's town reading are doing things that aren't exclusive to town (though I don't think anything is exclusive to town, so I'm not sure why that's even brought up). He's making lists and doing other things to look busy, without actually doing much. The vote park on Lucky and the interaction about not moving his vote after Lucky starts posting is giving me weird vibes, even though I do agree with Yos' point that just showing up and posting doesn't mandate moving the vote. I do, however, like Yos' rebuttal to BBT's accusations in 413, and some of his reasonings don't sound scum-motivated.

Lowell has come in and not said much in any of his posts. He accuses me of trying too hard for placing a vote, but can't back it up, then continues to push for my wagon. He throws out a few reads with one-line reasons, barely interacts with anybody, and completely ignores any and all questions directed at him.

While I have more to go off for Yos being scum, he's also got things going for him that may be town. Lowell doesn't give me any sort of town read at this point.

VOTE: Lowell

[shaddowez]

If the BBT wagon really isn't going anywhere (and, again, it's way too early to say that) my second choice at the moment would be Lowell.

Hmm-hmm-e-hmm...
And there have already been two players voting for him since this post...
(By the way, I don't see anything particularly scummy about Lowell.)

I don't understand what the point of your ponderance here is. Is there some significance to the fact that Yos (along with other, btw) have made comments about Lowell being scummy before myself and AI voting for him?
Do you see anything townish about Lowell? What is it about Lucky that you find scummier?

Kop

- Do you have thoughts on anything else that's going on with the game? You've been lurking an awful lot, and it seems awful convenient that when you come back to the thread you focus on and jump onto the wagon that had just started building.

[shaddowez]

Kop

- If AI and Lowell are both scum reads, why join the smaller wagon of Lowell?

BBT

- Outside of the lists and disagreeing on how things works, what are you seeing that's scummy about Yos that it's worth having your vote parked there?

Yos

- Basically the same question. There does seem to be some dancing around by BBT, but is it enough to have your vote parked there?

I like how Lowell came in and completely ignored everything directed at him, again. [/sarcasm]

[shaddowez]

@MOD

- I'll be V/LA until Monday, Jan 4th for New Years weekend. I'll try to post some, but can't guarantee I'll be able to.

[shaddowez]

Alright, I'm finally back and will be posting shortly.

Note to self: Don't start games around the holiday season.

[shaddowez]

"Why are you still voting for him Yos" isn't even a question. The question is, why aren't you voting for him, shaddowez? Is there ANYTHING he's done that looks town to you?

While I'm not in complete agreement with BBT, you did initially look scummy to me as well. BBT took that read of his and is running with it. He is interacting with people, and while he's focusing on you there are some posts where it looks like he's forming reads on other people as well. I can't say that he's town, but I wouldn't write him off as scum just for his focus on you, either.

I don't think BBT's total focus on Yos is pro-town. Yos, at least, is commenting on others.

^This felt weird to me because BBT talked about other people a lot, but it's an accurate statement if you only look at his posts from Sunday. Tex, what do you think of BBT's full ISO?

All of the scum? Does this mean you are town reading the rest of us?

I don't like this. Feels too "oh, you're town reading me? Right? I hope so."

I agree with both of these. Tex in general seems to be playing very carefully, but I'm pretty sure I've scum read her in every game we've been in together so I'm trying to make sure it's not just a playstyle thing I'm not liking.

Ya definitely. BBT should have stopped but he kept going, so he's scum.

If he had any shred of town in him, he would have listened to me and the others and backed off this ridiculous nonsensical tunnel.

I don't agree with these, at all. Scum may do it just to get town cred by listening to other people. Additionally, with the amount of people reading Yos as town, if BBT were scum wouldn't it make more sense for him to try for more low hanging fruit at this point then continuing to push on his read?

He looks like he's holding on to his positions tightly instead of evolving reads.

This I do agree with, at least when it pertains to Yos.

At least one thing is pretty much certain now: BBT and Yosarian cannot be scum buddies.

Why not? Have you ever seen thor play? He consistently gets in tunnels with fellow scum, just to try for this exact thought pattern.

I actually want to smash my face into a brick wall. What you basically just said was 'Outside of your reasons for scum reading Yos, do you have any reason to believe he is scum'. What the fuck? You should go back to my latest pot about Yos, read it, then vote him.

Nope, I'm asking what

else

you see that's scummy. This is related to the ABR quote just above - you believe he's scum from certain things, but you are failing to provide other reasons. At this point you're both just picking apart each others posts, because you've gotten to a point where neither of you will believe the other is town, so are trying to find things that you can use as an argument.

I'm confused how people express town reads on ABR when he posts so little content (I know this is the pot calling the kettle black, but I'm not asking you to town read me). At best he should be null.

I agree with this - he's not making any of his thoughts known, and while I don't think it's scummy, I definitely don't understand the town reads.

Texcat, we haven't had a chance to interact yet. You started to question AI for a bit then dropped it awhile back. What do you think of AI? For the record, my vote is staying where it is on him.

I like this.

I was starting to come around to this too until I saw the votecount. You think we'd get 8 votes on scum? Usually seems like one of two leading wagons is scum, but not both.

I don't agree with this at all. Likely, no, but not something to just disregard the wagons. I also think it's convenient that you completely ignored the fact that you and BBT had the same number of votes on you at the time of this post, meaning that your wagon should have been part of the same comparison.

I've had a quick over read of the whole BBT vs Yos, and to be honest, my total opinion of it all, it's a lot of bollicks. It is picking arguments for the sake of picking arguments and hoping to pin the slightest thing on each other. I agree with what Yos is saying that we find who is being the most town, and narrow it down in that sense. As it kind of makes sense, if we were to scum read the people being scummy, the list would be a lot greater than the people being town, generally speaking. I just don't see the problem that BBT picked upon it, and why he has made such a big deal from it, even though he did say he agreed with it.

However, I still stand by the fact that it's town vs town, it was a simple coming together about something small, it just imploded from there. I don't think either are scum.

Have you looked at anything

except

the Yos/BBT tunnel?

Aneninen and BBT scum buddies? Aneninen sure is buddying BBT hard.

What makes you think this? Just because Anen doesn't think BBT is scum (I'm not convinced at this point, either), what makes you think he's actually buddying? Also, if BBT is scum, don't you think that would be brazen of Anen at this point since there's so much focus on BBT?

Additionally, Lowell has done absolutely nothing to make me think he's town yet, so my vote is remaining where it is for now.

[shaddowez]

I distrust and dislike the way shaddowez is defending BBT here. It feels like he's trying to convince everyone to unvote him without being willing to really make a case for BBT being town.

If BBT flips scum, I'm going to be taking a closer look at shadowez tommorow.

If you'd actually read my posts, I'm not trying to get everyone to unvote BBT. I'm trying to get the two of you out of your tunnel. The reason I'm not calling BBT town is because I don't know if he is, but he is definitely not my strongest scum read. However, I look forward to interacting with you more about other matters if that's what you'd like.

acryon

- While I agree that AI's responses since your post about the slip have been townish, I completely disagree with your opinion that not knowing the setup is a town thing. In my experience, scum care less about the set up than town does, as generally the only thing they

need

to know is their fellow scum team. Even in a setup like this where there could be an SK, scum aren't going to care about who they lynch, especially on D1.

[shaddowez]

Unvote, Vote texcat

New wagon

GOGOGO

I'm actually slightly scum reading texcat also, but something about jumping from the second largest wagon (and the leading wagon for a long time) to someone with zero votes on them with less than 2 days until deadline doesn't sit right with me.

That said, I'd really like to see a Lowell lynch toDay, but definitely don't want a No Lynch. That will give us no information, and just gives scum an advantage. I'll move my vote later today or tomorrow (Real Time) if it will actually help towards a lynch.

[shaddowez]

Unfortunately, the Always lynch isn't going to happen. I'm still unsure about BBT. He still looks worse than Yos, but I'm not convinced one of them has to be scum. Tex is a stronger scumread for me than BBT and I think enough people have doubts that if a few people support this, it can be a viable option. Two days is plenty of time. I just need the initial support from about two people. That's all it takes.

That's about where I'm at with the Yos/BBT issue as well, though I actually think Yos is looking a bit worse than BBT. As stated, I agree with the read of tex, but still have a yet stronger read of Lowell. If it definitely looks like that won't happen by later today, I'll move my vote to tex.

[shaddowez]

Starting to scumread Lowell less to be honest.

What is it about Lowell that you like, because frankly I don't see anything that says town.

[shaddowez]

Can I answer or do you specifically want to hear it from Always?

I'll take your input, too. More info, more betterer

[shaddowez]

Miss-Marple positive on scum.
(It's a pity that I don't remember his gameplay. That one happened ages ago...)

Huh?

[shaddowez]

Let's not do this. Doesn't it bother anyone that Kmd is the one who started this wagon?

Considering nobody is actually voting kmd, including yourself, why is this a factor? Additionally, not really, Kmd is not high on my scum read list currently.

Is the Lowell wagon just due to his quick flip onto BBT?

I can't speak for everybody, but it's not the main reason for me. It certainly didn't help his case for me to move my vote somewhere else though.

[shaddowez]

I explained why I moved my vote.

Also I feel like I'm having this meta-discussion everywhere at once? Is it really your opinion that changing votes often is a scum move? Because my experience is that scum are less inclined to make enemies.

Is that addressed to me or tex? I hate when people jump in on questions I address to other people, so want to be sure before doing so.

[shaddowez]

VOTE: texcat

Will still support a Lowell lynch if it swings back that way.

[shaddowez]

@Mod

- I'll be V/LA over the weekend, back on Monday 1/11. Thanks!

[shaddowez]

bbt + kmd scum, lucky sk

gg thanks for playing

What's your reasoning for kmd scum? I did notice he was the leading vote on both of the late day wagons D1, which happened to both be conf town now.

It takes 5 to lynch, noone is in danger of being l-1

Acryon's vote in 1038 put BBT at L-2, so Lowell voting him would indeed put him at L-1.

I'm inclined to agree that Kop/BBT make sense as a scum team, but don't want to actually but Toffee at L-1 as I don't want a quickhammer occurring.

Lucky - if AI had been lynched instead of texcat, who would you have shot?

[shaddowez]

ok wait if its vvvv + t + xx then its also possible we have a godfather

in which case bbt could have been hinting about having tried to shoot shaddowez in his last post?

either way anen's day one obsession with the possibility of investigations heavily suggests he is investigation immune

We know BBT was the RB - if I was a godfather, why would he have hinted at trying to shoot me (and godfather isn't BP, so that doesn't make sense anyway..)? Unless you're proposing I'm the BP SK instead, but that invalidates your suggestion of Anen being II.

On the other hand, the setup could also be VVVVV + TT. That would give us a 1-shot vig, no SK, but a godfather. If Anen is godfather that would still give him the same II possibility.

[shaddowez]

I find it highly unlikely we have an SK, and here's why:

Scenario 1: Scum, 2 vigs, 1 1-shot vig

- All the numbers match up. 3 deaths N1 (1 scum, 2 vig). N1 a vig dies, then N2 all numbers match up again (1 scum, 1 vig, 1 1-shot vig).

Scenario 2: Scum, 2 vigs, 1 1-shot BP, Scum shoots at SK

- All the numbers match up again, assuming that ABR killed Kop and the SK killed ABR. However, if the scum shot at somebody N1 and it didn't work, I find it more likely that they would have shot at that person again N2. Considering there was no SK kill D3, I doubt this happened.

Scenario 3: Scum, 2 vigs, 1 SK (BP or II doesn't matter), Scum shoots someone other than SK

- One of the factions would have had to not kill (or be RBed) in order for the N1 numbers to match. It's highly unlikely scum would have RBed ABR and killed him, scum wouldn't have killed one of their own, and Lucky already claimed responsibility for AI. Considering all that, it means that SK would have either been RBed, or not shot N1.

This is really the only scenario I can think of where having an SK at all makes sense, and I really think it's the least likely.

Isn't a No Lynch in our best interest today? Even if there is an SK, that puts us into LYLO tomorrow (possibly with just the SK). If there's no SK, it gives us an extra day and an extra flip to work with.

[shaddowez]

I'm sorta here. I'm good with the massclaim.

As for my SK thoughts, I was doubting the existence of one. However, I have the habit of forgetting about multiple people targeting the same person, so it's actually more likely than I was originally thinking.

[shaddowez]

Could have been a 1-shot vig

[shaddowez]

I'm a vanilla townie.

Shadowez's later posts don't change much. He's doing nothing but telling how unlikely there an SK is.

Actually, my last post said it was more likely, I had originally thought it was unlikely because I hadn't considered a doubled-up shot. I think if it was a 1-shot vig they would have claimed by now, so I'd almost guarantee the SK at this point.

Could have been a 1-shot vig

Ok but that still has nothing to do with what you said.

How does that have nothing to do with what I said? I explained exactly how there could have been that number of kills each night

If

there wasn't an SK.

[shaddowez]

Pop to rofl.

[shaddowez]

Having more kills than expected isn't explained by the possibility two people shot the same person.

....there were less. I wasn't counting on an SK

because

there were only three deaths N1, and we have a definite of scum and two vigs (which equals three)

[shaddowez]

A couple of points:

• This is not my SK game. This is my SK game. (Note: It was a large and I made it to LYLO, so it's a long read).
  
• If I wanted to lay low on the SK argument, I wouldn't have said anything, not tried to keep arguing it. I didn't want town to waste time trying to figure out who was playing a role I didn't believe to be in the game (later clarified that I screwed up by not considering a double target).
  
• If 1186 isn't the most obvious "I'm the SK" post in the history of this game, I'm not sure what is.

Since I'm obviously not voting myself, and I believe kmd to be the SK,

VOTE: kmd

[shaddowez]

shaddowez who do you think is the mafia?

I'm honestly not sure. I'm going through ISO's and will hope to have something of substance later today (RT). Currently, I'm actually leaning towards you.

[shaddowez]

So, it seems that all four of the remaining players unequivocally believe me to be the SK. Assuming that I am (or mafia, for that matter), 3 of you as town are in complete accord...that means that scum (or the SK) can sit back and watch an all town wagon. If I'm neither, that means that only two of you are actually wrong, and the third vote will be one of the others, who won't care about taking me out (no matter what alignment I am).

It's also annoying that a good portion of the argument against me right now is my posting about the NKA, which actually makes sense but people aren't willing to take the time to understand.

kmd

- You're doing a lot of soft hunting and defending. You're posting feels...apathetic, which fits for an SK.

rofl had a lot of posting and was appearing to be town, but until the SK conversation started wasn't providing a lot of substance. At this point, getting rid of the SK is the most important thing to scum, because making it into LYLO with the SK alive results in a loss in 2 out of 3 circumstances.

[shaddowez]

I'm saying it's unlikely that three townies, who don't

know

anything, are all absolutely in accord that any other player is a particular role. It's much more likely that only two are, and the third is someone who doesn't care (the SK), or does know (the mafia).

[shaddowez]

I'm good with it.

Thanks for running the game Zar!

[shaddowez]

My biggest question is why I was killed when I had so much suspicion for being SK myself? Maybe this was answered somewhere but I thought I would make better mislynch than night kill.

Yeah, I answered in the Dead PT - basically I was stupid. I still wasn't sure there was an SK, and wanted to make sure I didn't get the vig NK (even though I had enough suspicion already and probably wouldn't have). I also realized after the fact you had enough suspicion that if you had already shot me it wouldn't matter, and if you didn't you probably would've been a lynch. Ah well.