Open 623 (White Flag) - A Moment in Time (Over)

[Ranger]

This is RC.

Yes, I know. We've played together before with you under this name. You alt-slipped. I read it.

Wow that's definitely a strong player.

I'm generally fairly good with remembering who I've played with, but I can't remember you. Have we played together? What gives you the impression I'm a strong player?

Frankly speaking: I made it clear to the mod that unless we lynch a mafiate today, I'm not recording this game in my wiki. I'm not at all confident this is actually winnable. Now don't get me wrong. I intend to give my all anyway. It might take a while, but I think reading every page is a necessity. It's just that this is lylo, and frankly, I'm replacing into an 85-page game. The most pages I've had to read as a replacement before is like...12. This is a significantly higher stress load, not only the phase but also the amount of reading.

If you're expecting some lord and savior...you've got the wrong gal. I'll do what I can, but to win we need two mafia dead. I can't guarantee I can get them.

[Ranger]

Initial first page feelings give me this:

{Yonom}
{Cerberus}
{SirCakez}
{Viva La Gloria}

Yeah, I know, two players missing, but their slots didn't post on the first page. I'll keep you updated, with this many dead it'll probably mainly be listing with changes.

[Ranger]

Also, found my answer on SirCakez. Read (but did not play in) Metal Gear Solid, played in a hydra for Pick Your Poison. That's why I didn't recognize you. I understand where you get your faith from now, but no offense: your early play places you as a scumread and your posting on this page shows dissonance that also contributes to the scumread.

[Ranger]

Whoops, in the reads list above, Yonom should be Karnage.

[Ranger]

{Karnage, TheCow}
{Cerberus v666}
{Viva La Gloria}
{SirCakez}

Off the first three pages, I want to say this, with a pseudovote on SirCakez.
Interestingly enough, I think there's a tag I can use to show a vote without voting, but I want to confirm our mod's not a jerk.

Mod:

If I use HURT: these tags, would you count it as a vote? (I'm hoping the answer's no.)

[Ranger]

So...this is getting exhausting already and I'm only through the first five pages.

You're gonna have to wait a while for me to get caught up, since I can't do this in one go. I'll need breaks. Very tired right now, so going to take one.

{pistachi0n}
{Karnage, TheCow}
{Cerberus v666}
{Viva La Gloria}
{SirCakez}

[Ranger]

Okay then.
HURT: SirCakez.

[Ranger]

SirCakez {4} - RhazhBash, pistachi0n, AlwaysInnocent, Something_Smart
Something_Smart {5} - SirCakez, Titus, TheCow, PhantomCobalt, Yonom

I do find this interesting. These two wagons formed in response to each other. SirCakez's wagon has only pistachi0n unflipped. Something_Smart has {SirCakez, TheCow, Karnage}.

[Ranger]

So to be blunt: those reads I have are basically all: "these people look like scum and look like town in equal amounts". One minute I love Yonom (Karnage), the next I hate Yonom (Karnage). One minute I love pistachi0n, the next I hate pistachi0n.

I even felt NotAnAlt's SirCakez push meant it was possible only one of them was scum, with SirCakez having some good posting, too.

...Yet ultimately, at page 22, my reads remain:
{Karnage, TheCow, pistachi0n}
{Cerberus v666}
{Viva La Gloria}
{SirCakez}

...Because I

still

think overall SirCakez is probably scum, and Viva's entrance looks like scum saving SirCakez.

[Ranger]

So I'm in his slot, have read some of his posts and know he looks town to ME, but...why the HECK am I apparently a given for being town? What did AI do to make literally

everyone

think I'm town? I want answers.

[Ranger]

This is the second time I've seen her with a vanilla role (I generally only play theme/role madness games) though, and the other time she was hydraing with a hyperactive poster, so it's possible this is just what she does when she can't do any further scheming or planning for her play early game.

So I get that goons are also vanilla, especially in this game, but this still makes me go "ew".

My instincts currently are telling me Yonom is town, so off of 25, we get:
{Karnage}
{TheCow, pistachi0n}
{Cerberus v666}
{Viva La Gloria}
{SirCakez}

[Ranger]

I think we'll get information from this lynch. If SS flips town, I'm going to be looking at Titus for scum tomorrow. If SS flips scum, I'm going to pursue AI.

I would not be surprised at all if someone has called out pistachi0n on lining up mislynches, but I actually really like this. It looks really, really blunt town.

[Ranger]

So reached page 33.
TheCow's hammer was transparently town. It sucked, yeah. It was a

bad

hammer, but it was a

town

hammer.

So that places things at:
{Karnage, TheCow}
{pistachi0n}
{Cerberus v666}
{Viva La Gloria}
{SirCakez}

[Ranger]

Page 33 also increases my Viva-Cakez theory given their interaction seems like distancing.

[Ranger]

So I just reached page 67.
Nothing in those pages has changed my opinion that much.
My scumread on SirCakez has significantly strengthened, as I think it no coincidence a pusher of Cakez being scum died both N1

and

N2. KickAssAndGiggle's heaviest push was SirCakez as scum. I also think Viva La Gloria is a scumbuddy, because this fits with my understanding of RC's scum play: the hard bus, while still pursuing his wincon and lynching town. The interactions between the two truly seem like distancing scum, and Cerberus really looks like their third buddy. pistachi0n also looks rather town, and while TheCow's not as town as I like, and Karnage isn't providing as much content as I like, both look town still.

[Ranger]

I have a theory that viva and cerb are the scum buddies but I'm not as sure about them so I'm sticking with Karnage.

I also think

this

is why EE was the nightkill.

[Ranger]

1682 as well.

[Ranger]

They probably want me to be the LyLo mislynch. Would explain a lot.

Frankly the only reason I'm not voting SirCakez right now is I'm waiting for everyone to check in at least once before I vote, because I honestly don't see myself voting anywhere else. This post is just terrible, and so much of SirCakez's posting feels faked, fabricated, and deliberate. His interactions with Viva La Gloria read as coordinated distancing, and his decision to sheep specific players (namely, my slot) reads as buddying.

[Ranger]

{Karnage, pistachi0n}
{TheCow}
{Cerberus v666}
{Viva La Gloria}
{SirCakez}

If I'd be wrong on a read, it would admittedly be TheCow, but I still think I'm right. In particular, 1783 from Cerberus v666 seems ridiculously strategic and analytically feels "off". I can't exactly put into words how the analysis is off, but it feels skewered and deliberately tampered with.

[Ranger]

Oh. You might've noticed some other positioning changes. Karnage is a top-tier townread because I've seen Karnage's play as scum, and what I've read at where I'm at seems to suggest this is not it. He's contributed a lot more and given many more solid thoughts this game compared to Pick Your Poison, and overall feels a lot less lurkish. pistachi0n also simply feels town, and I don't see myself ever voting there. It's like I said: if

any

of my reads are wrong, TheCow would be the

only

person I could see as scum outside of {SirCakez, Viva La Gloria, Cerberus v666}, but I don't think I am. They fit as a team well.

[Ranger]

I should also say: for someone so heavily scumreading TheCow in part for his lolhammers, SirCakez's trajectory onto voting Titus is one of the worst I've ever seen on-site. It's just scum. Also, worth mentioning: ever since D1, and gaining strength each day, every single player has been like, "SirCakez is scum, but X is also scum", with them pushing X and dropping their SirCakez push. That's just not town.

[Ranger]

If Titus flips town, Karnage or Cow goes tomorrow basically.

Karnage, TheCow, you two listen well and listen good.

This is why you're both alive.

It's to vote each other.
AI lived in spite of being a town-read because his reads were decent, but he supported one of your deaths. (I forget which.)
EE died because he didn't want either of you dead.

[Ranger]

Kill Calexico tomorrow, regardless of what Titus flips, she's had her buddies lynch her because she wouldn't bus them herself. I'm going to die and he's going to wifom you to death but don't believe it just lynch him.

This guy knew his stuff. (Calexico is clearly SirCakez.)

[Ranger]

If he altslipped in a public thread, then it's basically fucked up to deny said information to other players, ESPECIALLY at this junction in the game.

SirCakez does have reason not to disclose the information, given that said altslip is obviously from an ongoing game and that's a subject to tread carefully on.

[Ranger]

Yeah Karnage is definitely scum here. He's brought up the night kills twice now and I don't think he's addressed anyone but me the entire day.

The funny thing is.

And I say this as someone who just spent the better part of three or so hours reading the thread, so this knowledge is

fresh in my mind

.

On D2, you said this about KAAG. You thought bringing up the droog nightkill the way KAAG did was suspicious.
KAAG died.
Eagle brought up KAAG. You thought bringing up the KAAG nightkill was suspicious.
Eagle died.

And now, here, today, you're calling Karnage scum for doing the same thing. Occam's razor: which is simpler? Scum decided, from the get-go, to kill players suspicious of a single town player

every night

just

to frame that person in lylo...or, scum decided to kill threats to them?

The VCA point is also valid. You've been on every mislynch, and your progression to voting Titus was awful.

Cerberus's defense of you in 2060 makes me want to have him be lynched after you.

[Ranger]

The sad fact is, if I can't convince TheCow to vote with me, and/or Karnage to vote with me, we might not be able to win. :/

I do seriously think this could not be any more obvious, though.
NKA says SirCakez.
VCA says SirCakez.
SirCakez's inconsistent reads throughout the game, buddy-buddy nature, and lack of drive all say scum, as does his framing of "TheCow or Karnage".

[Ranger]

Cerb is our lynch today.

Cerb is safer.

I'll make you a deal: lynch SirCakez today, and then we can lynch Cerb tomorrow, because you're probably right. There is a chance, however remote, that I am wrong about Viva La Gloria. I think Cerberus's defense of SirCakez today in lylo is particularly telling, though. Cerberus does not strike me as the bussing type, and he is severely avoiding that push. Similarly, while SirCakez has Cerberus as a lynch candidate, he is focused exclusively on yourself and Karnage, and I'm increasingly sure you two are both town.

[Ranger]

So I did a refresher-iso of Karnage in Pick Your Poison and in here. There's no contest. His posting here is in an entirely different league, as I thought. Karnage is town.

[Ranger]

Also, what defense of cakez have you seen me make ranger?

To name a few? 2102, 2066, very strongly 2065, 2060, among others.

[Ranger]

Also,

Speaking of Karnage....is meta really the main reason for your read on him? Nothing else based wholly on this game?

Absolutely not. Karnage's play this game has been all sorts of town. The point I had of concern was checking Karnage's contribution levels, to see if the level I was seeing would potentially be a scum-indicator when all other indications said town. I did so, and found a strong contrast, reaffirming the already-existing evidence: Karnage is town.

[Ranger]

Eh, today's the leap year. If the game ends, it'd be interesting to see what Day In History Drixx uses.

VOTE: SirCakez.

I'll risk it.

[Ranger]

I'm not pulling a Firebringer.

This is an informed decision.

Everyone has checked in.
Everyone has provided their thoughts.
I did

thorough

reading for the game, and everything points to SirCakez being scum.

Everything I've read tells me Karnage and TheCow are both town.

I don't see any combination where SirCakez is not scum.

[Ranger]

Why the hell are you townreading Pistachi0n?

Honestly if I'm wrong about you being scum then it'd be pistachi0n as the third, which is why I'm advocating lynching Cerberus tomorrow because he's a safer bet for scum than you would be.

Yet there is no scum team where SirCakez is town. Not that I can see. I've looked.

If this is the wrong decision, I will take full responsibility for the loss. I'm

really

confident it's the right call, though.

[Ranger]

I'm fully confident TheCow is town here. My read there will not budge.
Yonom looked town overall to me, and Karnage has continued to look town overall to me. I've liked what he's said and what he's seen.
That leaves four names for three scum.

And of them...we've got SirCakez, who

literally every single nightkill

points to. No scumteam would be this dedicated to framing a player for a lylo mislynch. None. Scum might make one kill for wifom. Maybe. At most I could see two. But all three? The simpler answer is instead scum perceived a threat from the players they nightkilled. SirCakez fits that mold better than any other player.

[Ranger]

At this stage, my town suspicion on Cerberus is being shaken. I do suspect you are town, but I can't blindly agree with your read or reasoning, yet.

Btw, found this when looking at KAAG's iso.

KAAG's iso is almost entirely devoted to calling one slot scum (SirCakez), with the exception of Firebringer the D2 lynch. This is pretty much the only thing resembling suspicion on another player. I know it's not slam-dunk, he said he was re-evaluating his hard-townread, not really a true scumread, but: it makes sense for him to have died if he was on the right track of two scum. I think he was.

[Ranger]

ARGuoiadjf9riajgipo;asfjgpga;iofj9moreantiheroesquekeyboardsmashing.
;_;

I did try. I knew it was a risk voting SirCakez, but I didn't see me voting any other player because I couldn't see the nightkills pointing to anyone else and I couldn't see the voting patterns telling me anything else and such but...GAH. That's all on me. :(

Ranger: You fucking terrify me now. You had 2/3 of us down, and we just got lucky that you pushed the wrong one.

It's of little comfort. The Karnage misread hurts me a lot, since that's a read I wasn't as absolute about. I was never voting TheCow, ever. But I had read Yonom, I had read Karnage, and the only concern I had about Karnage was in what content he gave, so I even did research and put my fears to rest, yet it was

all wrong

, the content was scum when I thought it wasn't. :/

Of course, it's not as egregious as the aforementioned SirCakez misread.

[Ranger]

I feel like if Ranger had been here from the get go she would have easily called Firebringer and Titus as town wagons.

Sure I would!

From the nice comfort of the dead thread, since if I was here from the get-go, you'd have nightkilled me. :P