Mini 568 - Nubigena (Game over!)

[ooba]

Hi i'll give this a quick re-read a get back with my thoughts soon .
Thanks,
Ooba

[ooba]

Doh. I tought I found interesting points about the dice incident. Can you be more specific on what you think about it? Is it completely useless? In your opinion, do you think Sammich rolled the dice in fact? Or do you think he lied?

Maybe it's just me, but I don't really care about the dice roll conversation, either. I think on a more experienced player, the conversation would have maybe meant something, but looking at Sammich's posting and his...well...ingame track record, it looks like he was just one taco short of a combination plate, if you know what I mean.

If dice rolls and whether or not they were really done one way or the other is the hot topic of your case for him, then I question whether or not the case is anything other than an opportunistic wagon. Maybe I'm not following properly, so please let me know if there's a bigger reason you guys suspect him.

Mizzy have you finished you read? Who do you find the most scummy?

[ooba]

Ooba, you replaced in four days ago. What are your thoughts?

I re-read the game before i replaced in. I agree that Niv (Sammich) is the best play for today . My predecessor's Post 440 sums up the case very well against Niv.

Vote : Niv

That's

L-1

I do not totally agree with giving Mizzy a free pass just cause of Mafiaplayer's Townsperson confirmation way back in the first few pages , so wanted to know what she felt.

[ooba]

I do not totally agree with giving Mizzy a free pass just cause of Mafiaplayer's Townsperson confirmation way back in the first few pages , so wanted to know what she felt.

You could have just

asked

me, you know.

Mizzy have you finished you read? Who do you find the most scummy?

I really don't like his vote of yours, ooba, and I don't like that you have given so little content before voting, just utilizing your predecessor's words as given without adding anything to them. I may not have done such a good job so far, but at least I haven't put anyone at -1L while using someone else's post as justification.

Well after the re-read i belived sammich was the best lynch for today. I do have other thoughts on where i find each player on the scumminess meter but posting such a list will only help the scum now.

You believe Sammich is a VI due to his play , please read his posts this game - he acts like an idiot (and is scum at the end) :
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0

And Y , this is from your post against Near

You're presenting your subjective ideas as facts to make your case stronger. Your case isn't strong enough and by claiming it is, you're misleading the town.

If you do not buy the case , I (XreyoX) can be said to have done the same thing in Post 440. Why vote Near over me?

[ooba]

Well after the re-read i belived sammich was the best lynch for today. I do have other thoughts on where i find each player on the scumminess meter but posting such a list will only help the scum now.

You believe Sammich is a VI due to his play , please read his posts this game - he acts like an idiot (and is scum at the end) :
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0

So, after my entire post where I ripped your excuse for putting Niv at -1L apart, this is the only thing you can come up with? ONE meta-game?

Well most of your arguments view his play as 'Could be Village Idiot - you can't really accuse him with that' type statements.

I can understand wanting him to give more scumhunting content, but the lack of scumhunting is not always a scumtell.
I don't, however, see how claiming makes anyone scummy.
I don't like his answers either, but again, townies can be just as stupid in that respect as scum are.

I remembered the open game which i played with him - hence the link ..

I can see this as a case-point against him, but not a huge one, because he wasn't, well, all there?

And please do not water down the argument - At some points of the game , it was very clear he was there and did not respond to a lot of questions. He only flaked out in the end ..

And regarding the dice roll , sometimes when people are caught lying , they blurt out another lie without even thinking about it, and then more and more lies follow? I couldn't care less if he actually did the dice roll or not , the fact that he invented a big implausible story and stuck to it makes me think he has something to hide ..

[ooba]

I belive the claim. I belived near was pro town on my read too .

Really don't like Y's response to this whole mess. As in really, really don't like. As in, if we can't lynch Niv, I'd be completely happy lynching him.

QFT

[ooba]

Going into night, I'd just like to make the note that gunsmith is effectively cop. Just thought you'd like to know in case there was any confusion/hesitation on this subject.

With Vigillante as a miller-type role for it.

I'd like to keep my ideas for day 2 with me right now - doesn't help town in announcing who you think is scummy and who is pro town..

[ooba]

[quote"near"]but yah, near cous claim nothing less than mod confimed townie for me to still find htem scum[/quote]

Not sure what this means with the spelling errors. Am i correct in reading it as "Near could claim even a mod confirmed townie role and i would still find him scummy"?

[ooba]

EBWOP:

but yah, near cous claim nothing less than mod confimed townie for me to still find htem scum

Not sure what this means with the spelling errors. Am i correct in reading it as "Near could claim even a mod confirmed townie role and i would still find him scummy"?

[ooba]

I do not like this late bandwagon on Y - I'd really like one of you guys to hammer Niv .

[ooba]

Could someone hammer Niv??

[ooba]

Mod:

What happens at deadline? An auto no-lynch, or a lynch by half a majority?

If the Day makes it to deadline there will be no lynch.

Also, Mafiaplayer has asked for replacement. Hopefully I can get that arranged asap.

[ooba]

Why don't you tell us who your "Loaded" is? Why should we wait if we can get a mafioso lynched? It's not like we don't know you claimed gunsmith...
This question is aimed at Near. I'll really thank you all if no one but him answers it.

Really tempted to answer it but i shall respect your wishes ..

Just letting you know I'm having eye surgery tomorrow and will be out of action for a while. I'll leave it up to the mod whether to replace me.

Take care , Ripley.

[ooba]

Near, from his meta, seems to do silly stuff like this as town, so I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt for the moment, but damn, that was some really stupid play right there.

Is there any meta available for Near as scum? I looked through his posting history and couldn't find any.

Near as scum - House Mafia : (Replacement)
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7163

[ooba]

Niv , Near , Me , jerubbal , Y -> Town.

Mizzy -> Mostly Town.

Will do a re-read with this info and get back with my findings.

[ooba]

Anyone has any conclusions about Near's scum-play?
The only reason I'm not voting for him ATM is that he might be a really bad townie (And no one claimed a cop-ish like role).

I do see the case about Lowell. I mentioned his lurking more than once.
ooba is another option.

gorckat, you've been here for a while, but I have no real thoughts about you. As if you talk, but not saying anything really important. I don't like it.

I'm another option? You believe Near is gunsmith but then doubt me?

I wont be here for the weekend. Will post after that

[ooba]

Welcome back Mizzy ..

I'll do a quick re-read and post my thoughts ..

[ooba]

I'll be away for the weekend - will post after that ..

Please do not lynch anyone by then - i've finished 15 pages of my re read - think i have a whiff of 2 possible scum - will complete and post my findings ..

[ooba]

Lowell/Incognito scum pairing - discuss.

Will post my case in the evening..

[ooba]

ooba, here's your chance to prove my cynicism wholly unfounded by posting a well-argued case, worthy of the two trailers we've sat through while waiting for the main feature to start.

I'm sorry i did not get around to posting this , but i had problems with my keyboard and i couldn't type much with an on screen keyboard..

I started doing a re-read to spot connections between players. The

Based on a whiff of something, I'm working on a theory of a Near/Y scumteam.

unvote, vote Y

Lowell posts this on Page 4 , after which Incog does his gambit by posting "vote for near , he's far more scummy" . Lowell does the same and votes for near. I find Incog's reaction to it a bit odd though .

Lowell, did you really fall for that? One thing that I absolutely despise is when someone tries to link two players as scum partners this early in the game. How could you claim with absolute certainty on page 4 of the thread that you are convinced of a Y/Near scum grouping? And the fact that you actually switched your vote from Y to Near at my beckoning suggests that you do actually view the both of them as equivalents. I'd like a detailed analysis as to why you believe that Y and Near are most likely scum.

@Near: You've now effectively posted a grand total of four times and in each and every one of your posts you've voted for someone different. First thephantom, then Sammich, then Imat, and finally Sammich again. Your vote hopping isn't making you look any better in my book. I currently like where my vote is.

mod: Can you please prod thephantom? He seems to have vanished in phantom-like fashion.

He berates Lowell for paring two players on Page 4 - then turns around to say that he'd like to hear a "detailed analysis" from Lowell. Looks like he's attacking Lowell here , but really is not - Plus he shifts attention to two other players at the end.

Followed by that , Lowell really lurks a lot and makes a lot of one liner posts. Incog replies to all these posts by lowell , but does not follow up with votes or full attacks. Consider the post by Y, which Lowell said gave him a whiff of a Near/Y scum team.

@ Near: We're all happy you're here, but could you add some of your own thoughts? It's your second post, and the second time you just vote some one due to some other player's reasons.

Compare that with the following posts

Lowell, do you care to comment on anything else in the game? I really hate these kinds of comments that criticize current happenings but do nothing to move us away from that kind of discussion.

Lowell again: answer Reyo's post 320, plz? kthx.

Again Lowell, you have yet to answer my recent questions. I can easily see why Y FoSed you, you don't really explain your votes too well. I don't know if that is Scum trying to mislead Town or Town trying to keep their arguments to themselves, but I'd say you need to start doing a better job of explaining your votes.

I have to agree with Imat here. Lowell, you were really pushing hard on the idea of Imat being scum and now that Imat came at you with a number of questions, you've refused to answer those questions and you seem to have conveniently switched your vote from your main target to Niv for probably the most dubious reason of them all (his flaking out of the
game). Can you elaborate on why Niv is more deserving of your vote than Imat at this point?

Post 533 :
Incog attacks Lowell here . But then also adds me to the scummy list and links both lowell and me. Distancing + Linking partner to Pro town person

Day one ends here .

To his credit, Incog never waivers and follows up with what he felt in post 533 i.e attacking me and lowell on Day 2 ..

I still think Y can be a godfather.

Near, what do you think of ooba? Why have you not suggested that ooba may have some scum role that is immune to your investigations? I thought ooba looked extremely scummy at the end of Day 1.

And a big attack on Lowell in Post 673 - which is a good post - i find nothing scummy with that . What i find scummy is that Incog in Post 680 , starts immediately shifting from Lowell ..

Anyone has any conclusions about Near's scum-play?
The only reason I'm not voting for him ATM is that he might be a really bad townie (And no one claimed a cop-ish like role).

I've actually been thinking about Near a bit more, and there's a few things I'm puzzled about. First of all, if Near really is the Gunsmith, I can understand why the scum may have opted to not choose him as the NK in that they may have feared that he could be the target of Doctor protection. The thing that puzzles me though is if we believe the opening flavor text is indicative of anything for the scum (i.e. the scum probably don't have a Godfather), then what other kinds of scum roles could there be? The only scum roles I could think of are Goons and Roleblockers. If the scum don't have a Godfather, wouldn't they likely have a Roleblocker to counteract the actions of pro-town power roles? And if that was the case, why was Near able to investigate someone last night? Unless of course the scum consists soley of Goons, which I'd find hard to believe.

The more I think about Near's claim, the less I buy it especially coupled with his Day 1 play and now his even stranger Day 2 play. I could definitely go for a Lowell or Near lynch today.

Lowell's vote in 678 is a very weak vote IMO.

So..
a) Incog actions of pointing out lowell's actions but not really following up with attacks till the end of Day 1
b) Lowell's weak OMGUS vote against Incog which seems like distancing.

make me think there is a Scum pairing between them.

[ooba]

788 is a good enough reason for me to switch to Imat again (plus, I, you know, remembered he was in the game).

unvote, vote Imat

At this point I've narrowed down my search, albeit not dramatically.

I will NOT vote for any of the following:

Near- believe claim

Y- believe Near's claim
Ripley- more assertive of late, and searching other directions than the foolish but pervasive Lowell bandwagon.
Mizzy- still foolishly think MP was town

Gorckat, Incog, and ooba, consider yourselves warned.

You believe Near's claim but ..

I checked out XReyoX on night 0. Her gun was unloaded.

You've warned me?

Vote: Lowell

Unvote, Vote ooba.
I don't like way he's playing. XReyoX gave me some bad vibes too.
I think he's a good candidate for the noose, and might give us some information about Near's claim.

Funny i was going to say the same thing about lynching you

[ooba]

I don't believe his claim. There are two possibilities:
1. We lynch him to test his claim, and if I'm wrong, we lynched a power role.
2. We lynch some one with a result, and if I was wrong, we still have a power role. Scum already know his real alignment, so we can't really out him or anything.

I vote for whoever I think is the best lynch. Whether my target will be easier to lynch or not, is not something I'm really concerned with. I'm looking for a good lynch, not an easy one.

Y, why are you suddenly acting so scummy?

You lynch me or you - we turn up innocent - it does not validate Near's claim - only a tested Guilty ('loaded') result can do that ..

[ooba]

Believe it or not, I find it easier to look like town when I'm scum.

I do understand gorckat's logic (and I actually missed some of it myself), but the reason I'm voting ooba is that I think he'll turn up scum, and therefore we can prove Near is scum. Not vice-versa.
To clarify: I thing ooba is scum, ignoring Nears result.

And to sum up - you think i'm scum because

XReyoX was perfectly town. No real mistakes, nothing to actually point out. I recognise that kind of play from games I played scum. All the right choices, all the right word... Seems too much for me to be completely true. ooba hasn't improved much.

When you say i haven't improved much - do you mean i've played the role of the "perfect town" like XreyoX or just that i also give you scum vibes?

[ooba]

Gorckat , you just moved up few measures on the scum list .. Why did you hammer prematurely?

[ooba]

In light of this replacement, the deadline has been extended to May 16.

Discussion always helps the town?

We are in LyLo. I'm assuming 3 mafia as the kills point to one scum group.

Players Alive :
Y
jerubbaal2
Incognito
Mizzy
gorckat
Ripley
ooba

Now near cleared me and Y . I'm not discounting the possibility of a godfather , but i think it would be in our best interests to concentrate on the other 5.

FoS : gorckat

for now . I'd also not vote and give scum a chance to quick hammer..

[ooba]

I'll let Y decide the order ..

[ooba]

Y - your turn ..

[ooba]

And I'm a Townsperson ...

So we have a set up with 3 Mafia , 1 Cop , 1 Doc , 1 Vig+Miller , 6 Town .. Which i can buy ..

Gorckat is a doc . We already have a miller and Night start so i think Godfather might have been a bit excessive but not sure on that .

{Ripley,Mizzy,Incognito,Jer2(Imat)} - Thoughts on this group after another re-read !!

[ooba]

Vote Ripley.

Lets discuss and not be hasty Y ..

[ooba]

For the record, despite jerubbaal's idiotic behavior and lack of clear thinking and logic, I don't think he's scum. I question his intelligence, but not his alignment. He seems to actually be trying to scumhunt, he's just doing it wrong.

So by your reasoning , that leaves {Ripley,Incognito} and a possibility between:
a) A godfather
b) A scum who claimed doc
Which do you think is more probable?

[ooba]

For those who feel scum are a bit underpowered in the setup :

Goon x 3 , Gunsmith , Vig , Doc , 6 Townies ..

What do you think of

Godfather x 1 , Goon x 2 , Gunsmith , Vig , Doc , 6 Townies

Where Godfather is still guilty to gunsmith investigations but is Night kill immune - so you have a slightly nerfed Vig whose kill wont work on the GF.

[ooba]

Ok I'm giving this a re-read and posting my thoughts ..

[ooba]

Ok i still haven't got to the re-read as I promised - will finish tomorrow for sure and post my findings ..

[ooba]

That's not completely true. Some people are good enough to appear completely town while being scum.

... Maybe if I had some experience being scum, that could be said of me, but if one looks at my wiki, one will see that I have

never been scum

.

I don't agree. In my first game as scum I was "the most obviously town".

With the deadline closing in, I'll

Vote Mizzy

.

So you're voting her for this

one

thing on which you disagree?

[ooba]

Give me a chance to have my re-read - post my thoughts , then lets lynch someone (doing it right now as i post this) ? We do have a week left you know ..

If you do have a solid case on someone (instead of I'm town , so the other three are scum - valid from your POV , not mine) like player interactions and such - posting them now would be good ..

[ooba]

I shall divide the post into 2 - Setup Speculation and Scum pairings

Setup Speculation
~~~~~~~~~~~~

a)

First thing i did was revisit all

older posts of destructor

From a moderating point of view, I think ensuring a setup essentially represents a conflict between an uninformed majority and an informed minority, and creating roles that require players to interact to come to an understanding of the setup or the motives of the players is within the spirit of the game.

I wasn't referring to theme flavour exclusively, but any flavour, including Mafia flavour. If a mod can, for example, create a logical backstory and coherent narrative that takes the roles and events of the game into account, I find it makes a game more enjoyable even if it is formulaic in it's setup.

This was the only flavor line which i found to be mildly linked to set up (apart from the gun falling out from avinashv proving he was a miller for the gunsmith)
- "But unlike you and those that have fallen by your hand, your legacy will live on. Your Mafiosi will outlive you."
Cannot say anything from this line including absence/presence of a Godfather.

A thread started by destructor approximately one month before this game was started. About Night Kill immunity and balance(he started it for SKs - although the second post someone tells him its possible to give godfathers NK immunity too)

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... ht=#908575

"I thought about four basic categories of roles and what they should entail to be 'normal'. Perhaps it's too restrictive, perhaps it's too broad, but it's a start. I don't assume that this is a good list, but it would certainly help me decide what sort of roles to expect and include in normal games.

I think every role should fulfil the "Normal Universal Role" criteria and all other specialised roles should fit into one of Investigative, Roleblocking or Killing roles.

Anything outside this shouldn't be normal.

[edited]
Normal Universal Role mechanics:
- Communication with other players by means of posting.
- Ability to place one vote for a player's lynch/no lynch.
- Role and alignment is revealed on death.

Normal Investigative Role (Cops, etc) mechanic:
- Ability to garner information about one other player's [alignment or role mechanics] through targeted investigation [once per Night phase].

Normal Roleblocking Role (Doc/Roleblocker/Godfather/Miller) mechanic:
- Ability to block/alter the standard function of another players non-universal role mechanic [once per Night phase, either passively in relation to oneself or actively by

targeting another player].
- [An active Roleblocking ability may not be used on oneself].

Normal Killing Role (Mafia/Vig/SK) mechanic:
- Ability to kill a targeted player.
- [An informed minority may only kill during Night phases and only once per Night phase]

What I'm trying to get at here is a clear guideline that leaves enough room for innovation while not letting things get too insane.

None of these really proved to be useful in deciphering anything about this game setup however

b) What info we have in the game

We already have a Investigative role (Gunsmith)
We have a role which is a combination of a Killing+Roleblocking role (Miller Vig)
We have a claimed Roleblocking role (Doc)

A night Start for scum. 3 Mafia since there is no evidence of any other killing group.

i) Could we have a Godfather?

Yes but if we did he would be Night kill immune instead of investigation immune because Investigation immunity (when we already have a miller) would be unbalanced for the scum
So - This clears the targets of Near's investigation - Y and me

ii) Is this setup possible without a Doc?

No it would be totally unbalanced (Maybe if the Vig was not a miller then maybe but even thats a bit against the town)
So - In the absence of any counter claims - that clears gorckat

If any of you disagree with any of these two points then please point out why you think so. (I'd also like you to give a possible set up if you do not think this is the case) .

Scum pairing will be posted tomorrow as its getting late for me and i'm going to bed.

[ooba]

I'm re-reading - On page 27 !! I've just got a brain wave - somebody mentioned a traitor and i think the following setup is very much possible ..

2 Mafia , 1 Mafia Traitor , Gunsmith , Doc , Vig + Miller , 6 Townies

This would also not clear Y as his gun result would have been unloaded (aka no gun) - hence explaining his harsh attack on Near hoping to get investigated.

This is also far more balanced than the one i had in that previous post.

(I'm sorry about the incessant setup speculation , but i think determining the setup is important as that decides if Y is cleared or not ..)

[ooba]

Mizzy , i just realized you haven't answered a question i posted way back at the start of Day 3 ..

For the record, despite jerubbaal's idiotic behavior and lack of clear thinking and logic, I don't think he's scum. I question his intelligence, but not his alignment. He seems to actually be trying to scumhunt, he's just doing it wrong.

So by your reasoning , that leaves {Ripley,Incognito} and a possibility between:
a) A godfather
b) A scum who claimed doc

c) A Mafia Traitor

Which do you think is more probable?

Bold was added now ..

[ooba]

Add : Jerubbaal forgive me for refering to Imat but i found it was easier doing the re-read that way.

This is my few finding for connections in serial order of reading

Incognito <-> Mizzy
He votes for Mafia player in Post 45 , but note the immediate shifting of suspicion in Post 59 , and then even more support to MP in Post 65 with deflecting attention to Near.
Incognito 102 and 106 focus back on MP , but no real attacks - infact "I don't necessarily think Mafiaplayer's actions have been indicative of him being scum". Back to Near in 112.
Post 131 - "If he's scum, he'll probably eventually out himself anyway by doing something even more anti-town than we've seen thus far." - MP till date had refused to answer questions , disrupted any chances of conversations occuring . The only 'more anti-town' thing i can see MP doing is Hammering without a claim.

Imat <-> Mizzy
Does Post 72 look like scum talking to scum?
Look at how Imat also paints Sammich as more scummy than MP in Post 98

Imat
Imat more on Near in 123 , 177 , Sammich in 205. Infact Imat's entire attack has been on Near,Sammich and Lowell - indicative of newbie scum.

Ripley <-> Mizzy
“I feel that it is possible that Mafiaplayer isn't scum and maybe he is just playing poorly. That does not rule out my suspicion of him though.” (thepahntom)
Ripley asks questions of Mizzy as to why she is not contributing on Page 19. I really can't make out if 499 sounds overly aggressive from Ripley .

---

This is each player on their own (mostly with regard to who they attacked) ..

Incognito
- Till Day 3 , you've only attacked Near,Lowell and Me.

Phantom/Ripley
- That wishy-washy bit about "I have been reading over the thread though and I feel that it is possible that Mafiaplayer isn't scum and maybe he is just playing poorly. That does not rule out my suspicion of him though" - could also be a newb scum reaction to a poor playing town - can't say its a connection as such . But it is scummy
- Till Day 3 , Ripley attacks Sammich,Mizzy (one post attack),Near (A semi doubt casting session),Y and Lowell

Mizzy
- Till Day 3 , Mizzy attacks Me and Y . I'm not analyzing MafiaPlayer

Imat
- Till Day 3 , Imat attacks Near and Lowell
- How did "I'm leaning very town on Mizzy and Incog" change to "Incog's play has been good, but I don't find anything that sways me any particular way" and then to "My view of your play, Incog, is that you've generally said reasonable and sensible things, kept a coherent line of logic, and shown reasonably town interests."

---

I do find Y scummy but the logical play for town now is to lynch someone from the {Ripley, Jerubbaal/Imat , Mizzy, Incognito} group.

Apart from one post , Mizzy does not really speculate among pairings in the other 3 , apart from voting Incognito. Mizzy would i be correct in saying you believe Incognito+Ripley are more likely the scum in that group?
And quotes like
"Voting for and lynching me will probably cost town the game" - Post 935 - Probably?
"I've gotten to the point where I just don't care about the outcome of this game anymore."
really do not help.

Now that I've caught up , expect me to be more vocal and more posts between now and the deadline ..

[ooba]

This is like playing Vengeful Mafia with 7 players - makes my head spin !!

What do you all think about a Ripley lynch?

[ooba]

Mod:

your day start post says the deadline is extendable. What would it take for you to extend it?

Anyhow, a deadline extension would be beyond sexy right now. I think we certainly have enough activity at the moment to justify it.

Is it necessary ? We still have 4 days left. About 39 pages of interactions to try to deduce scum . I'm not sure if more time is needed - there would be a lull again followed by frantic activity close to the deadline.

I do wish gorckat would say more though . Let me just re-read the last few pages again ..

[ooba]

I'm leaning towards a Gorckat/Incognito pair at the very least, now, with Y bringing up the rear.

Let's test the waters.

Vote: Gorckat

.

Now we have 1 vote on 4 different people, meaning that a lynch is only possible if the remaining 3 people all team up on one person or someone needs to switch. The remaining non-voters can't all be scum because otherwise, they'd have won already, so this is a pretty safe thing to do and might give us a good amount of information.

But that would throw all our setup out of whack wouldn't it? A Town with 3 Mafia , Cop+Vig(Miller) seems very underbalanced for us . But considering that is a meta assumption , it could be possible too . But i do not think gorckat should be lynched today , even if we believe he might be scum.

And why do scum have to converge on a vote right now? They'd be fine with a No lynch - killing for the victory or a deadline press on a Townie .

If i haven't been clear :

I will not support a Y or gorckat lynch today.

[ooba]

My attentions someone I did think was pro-town Night Two

By the way who did you protect Night 0 and Night 2?

Night 1 was Near ..

[ooba]

Analysis of Day 3 Events after our claims
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I'm starting with Post 876

876 : jerubbal
- Says GF is not possible
- 4 unconfirmeds with 3 mafia so he knows its the other 3
- On Ripley : "I think Ripley's the clear scum, so we should lynch him first without a lot of question."
- On Incog : "Incog's play has been good, but I don't find anything that sways me any particular way."
- On Mizzy : "Mizzy being scum is a surprise, but I'm going to go back and read her stuff with a different mindset (I was thoroughly convinced she was town) and see if I find anything anomalous to make this decision easier."

878 : Incog
- I do not think its a cop+doc setup

879 : Ripley
- Shows the same reservation about setup
- Asks jeru if he's willing to lynch Incog

880 : jeru
- I'd be happy lynching Incog. Because he's scum. I just think you're the easiest to persecture.

881 : Ripley
- Points out that Mizzy never expressed any comments about the Setup to jerubbaal's claims of SUIT (I Town,U Scum)

882 : Y
- "A godfather seems to be too much" - "Hey I'm town"
- Thinks the 3 scum are in the Fantastic Four {Ripley,Mizzy,Incog,Jerubbaal}
- Goes after Ripley for him seeming to "know more" than others and dismissing other people's options
- Votes Ripley (Seems like a weak distancing vote to me)

884 : Jeru
- Defends that Mizzy also went "No!" to his SUIT theory
- Says Ripley hasn't called him scum yet which any decent townie would have done

885 : Mizzy
- "I do not think jerubbaal is scum. He seems to be trying to scumhunt"

887 : Jeru
- thephantom didn't post much but whatever of it which was there was wishy washy (True)
- Mafiaplayer's Early play looks realy scummy now cause she voted only for townies.

(Checking - Avinashv after he died so doesn't count , Sammich , Myself , Y , Gorckat , Near - this is true)

- Posts what i think is Ripley's most scummiest post in the game
- Asks Mizzy who she think is scum since she hasn't said anything yet
- "I'd actually be happy lynching Incog if there is the will to do so, because he's probably going to be the hardest to lynch of the three of you."

888 : Mizzy
- Instincts tell me jeru wouldn't want spotlight on himself
- I cannot defend when you do not post a case

889 : Jeru
- Mizzy , I think you're town but you can't be town cause then there'd be a GF and that would mean a whacked out setup

892 : Incognito
- Whoa , Ripley and Jeru are totally scum with each other
- Imat's been pretty much under the radar and lurker newbie scum type (I agree)
- Imat on Lowell (The first part could be attributed to laziness but the reply to Mizzy is pretty scummy)
- About how Jerubbaal goes from Town-Scum-Maybe Town on Mizzy

893 : Jeru
- Incog , you're case really isn't substantial. I trust that there is no GF in the setup more than the fact that i had a pro town read on Mizzy the whole game

895 : Incog
- I've been with Ripley in another game and the thing about him "knowing too much" was there in that game too. He was a townie there.
- But in that game , i was pretty sure all the time about who Ripley was suspicious about. Here it is not the case on Day 2
- Ripley has also tried to link me with Imat
- Thrid scum should be another different role. I will support a Ripley or jerubbaal lynch

897 : Mizzy
- This is the first post in the game to mention the word "Traitor"

899 : Ripley
- I may act like I "know better" - but I do not see how defending it will help (Good - it really doesn't)
- I was pro Near , Anti Niv - I can't believe you didn't notice that Jerubbaal
- Incog, I really do not see you as the guy who pushed Lowell's case . Instead you've been a in the shadows type guy , blending in
- Well Imat did not post in any of his games - Its not like he flaked on this one alone
- "We’ll see if Mizzy’s latest thought is equally sharply received – jerubbaal has seemed so far not to hold her in quite the same contempt as he does the rest of us" - Seeing as this about Mizzy talking about a traitor - this line piques my interest

Finished page 37 - this is taking more time than i imagined it would take .. I reading everything as i have to read between the lines too .. Posting in case any of you want to reply to this while I'm finishing the other pages . Tell me if I've misrepresented you somewhere ..

[ooba]

gorckat , Noticed something :

In post 902 , you say

Again with not counting ooba as a confirmed townie. If there's a GF, the I'd bet on ooba being it

While in Posts 856 and 978 , you say ..

The scum shooting Near Night Two shocked me; I was outplayed. I'd protected him Night One, swallowing my concerns and giving him the benefit of the doubt,

but then turned my attentions someone I did think was pro-town Night Two

, convinced Near was scum.

Last Night I protected you

So Which one was it? Am i pro town or am i not? If I'm you're bet on a GF , then why protect me instead of Y??

[ooba]

1 quick question while I'm taking in these most recent posts. ooba, you've used a style where you say "I" outside of quotes to paraphrase what a person has said, like this:

- I cannot defend when you do not post a case

but there's a line at the end that appears to refer to yourself:

Seeing as this about Mizzy talking about a traitor - this line piques my interest

... which is confusing. Is there anything else in the main body of 979 where "I" or "my" refers to yourself?

Nope . I should have added that comment in the ( ) .

You know Ripley - finished my Day 3 read - you're the only person who hasn't really commented on who you think is a good lynch ..

[ooba]

I made that GF comment specifically in reference to jerubbaal not counting you as confirmed, which he did at least twice. Everything you've done since then makes you the least likely candidate for a GF.

Ok but you've said you think i was your bet for a GF at that time - and it was the start of Day 3.

So even if my day 3 actions had brought a turn about in you think i was a likely GF , you were thinking that during the Night protect.

[ooba]

I get the "Again with not counting ooba as a confirmed townie." part.

"If there is a GF, then I'd bet on ooba being it." - Does this line mean
a) You're telling jerubbaal - "Ooba could also be the GF"
b) Or "If there was a GF in the game , then my number one suspect is Ooba"?

It looks like 'b' - so when you have two confirmeds me and Y and you think there's a greater possibility of me being godfather , why protect me over Y?

[ooba]

-I protected you Night 2.
-jerubbaal was leaving you out of Near-cleared townies on Day 3.

You being a GF never entered my mind Night 2 when I protected you. I figured Near was clearing townies to use in support of a guilty on someone, or that he was gonna kill one to cement his place. That's what went into my thoughts Night 2.

I figured, at that moment, that you were more likely a GF than Y because it looked like jerubbaal was unable to convince himself you were innocent.

Okies

Here's everyone's list : (Top 3 for lynching in order of preference)
Incog -> Jerubbaal , Mizzy , Ripley/Y
Mizzy -> Gorckat , Incog , Y
Jeru -> Incog , Ripley , Mizzy
gorckat -> Mizzy , Jerubbaal , Ooba?
Y -> Mizzy , Jerubbaal

Ripley is scummy in that fact that he hasn't commented on a particular lynch. Here are my thoughts :

Mizzy - is a good candidate for Mafia but i do not think Mizzy is today's lynch

Ripley - There are two things i do not like about Ripley
a) How he never seems to have stated who he'd like to see lynched today. Scum keeping options open?
b) All of you seem to have him at the back of your lists.

Jerubbaal - I do not like how jerubbaal keeps shifting with respect to Incognito ..
When asked about it he said .. "@ooba - I've addressed my changing read on Incog before, but I can do it again in greater detail. When I was leaning strongly town on Incog was during the Lowell mess, and I regarded his contribution to that train hugely positive, because I agreed with it. When Lowell comes up as town, that largely invalidates my reason for liking Incog as town."
But made this statement at the start of Day 3 ..

"Incog's play has been good, but I don't find anything that sways me any particular way."

Secondly you think Ripley is the most scummy but you vote for Incognito 2 posts later instead?

Incognito - Strikes me as the most pro town of the bunch. His theory about scum quick lynching are wrong though - why would they ever risk it?

Some pairings i could see

{Jerubbaal/Mizzy} + {Incognito}
{Incognito/Mizzy} + {Not sure}
{Ripley/Mizzy} + {One of Jerubbal/Incog as traitors}
{Ripley/Incog} + {Y}

Infact Mizzy seems to be in most of my pairings . Instinct tells me to vote Ripley however ..

[ooba]

Hmm .. Now we wait for destructor ..

[ooba]

Hmm guess my instinct was right ..

On hindisght we should have lynched gorckat - for not protecting Near and probably the slip on me ..

Mizzy was pretty right on except for the suspicion on Y.

But a fun game and well played guys !! And nicely written and modded by destructor - happy i replaced in ..

[ooba]

See? No one ever listens to me.

Well I didn't vote you and was willing to listen about gorckat not being confirmed.

What do you guys think about the balance? Did the lack of a town Doc favour scum disproportionately? How much of this game's outcome can be attributed to the nature of the setup?

Well 'balance' is a tricky thing - this game has thought me that meta assumptions of a town needing a particular role is wrong - but i do think it was a close game - and that implies that it was evenly balanced.
I was suspicious of gorckat but then thought - you really would have added a doc due to the night start
We losing the Vig was unfortunate but i do not think it would have a big difference ..

But was gorckat being separated from the other two for one day that big a handicap to the scum? It does make sense flavor wise for them to get together atfer Night 1 but a traitor mafia doc would have been better (But that would have been inline with the meta and guessable)

[ooba]

During Night 0 and Day 1, scum could have unwittingly killed their buddy, who, to compound it, was also their only power role. I thought that was a fairly big dilemma for the scum group and I assume it was weighing on their minds throughout the start of the game.

A traitor may have been good. To be honest, the role never occurred to me while I was putting this together.

Did they actually contemplate not killing anyone Night 0? the game would have been pretty hard for them if they had killed gorckat(or the cat herder at that time)

[ooba]

And I was grateful that ooba didn't set to work a week earlier than he did. I didn't like the way that was going at all.

QF'inT! I still don't think there's any incongruity between thinking ooba was town Night 2, but thinking he could be a GF given one of the obv scum wasn't counting him as cleared, but I could see where others might go for it.

I miscalculated and thought you wouldn't quick lynch so soon and wait for something closer to deadline.. Well this game was a real good learning experience for me

My one real reservation about this setup is the part I wasn't actively involved in, ie the Night 0 scum killing choice. To me, the difference in outcome, even between killing a plain townie and killing the mafia doctor was too large a factor to be determined by blind luck alone. And obviously the difference is magnified when the scum actually hit a town power role as actually happened here. They could, it's true, avoid this lottery by foregoing the kill altogether, but that seems a very high price.

I agree with this . A Day start would have been better i feel .. Scum do not know their partner for the Day 1 lynch alone (but i'm sure gorckat could have passed some signals).. The vig would have got one kill in ..