Mini 739 ~ Mafia Jailbreak, Game Over

[CF Riot]

Hey all, replacing for Korts. I've been reading the game since it opened, but school's busy and some people like to make posts that are

6 screens long

so I'm only on page 7. I know RC is at L-1 and I'm on the wagon, but I don't even know what the case on him is yet, so I'm going to unvote until I catch up further. At the point I'm at Pops actually looked scummiest. Bear with me, I'm a slow reader.

Unvote.

[CF Riot]

OK first things first. Since I'm replacing Kso;rt, I decided to be a good replacement. I didn't have much time left on the computer (use library) so I decided to print the remaining 3 pages and take them home to read. Printer friendly version.

100 PAGES LONG.

No exaggeration. But you better believe I can play the mega post game too. It's in Player-by-Player order rather than chronological order, but that was the only way I could take notes and keep my thoughts straight.

Rishi, Huntress, and MME

I'm getting a lurker feel for all three of these players. If Spyre's salt theory is right, these are the kids we're looking at. MME seemed like honest lack of time, but it's continued, and his latest post excusing himself from posting looks put on. Rishi has 6 posts. Yeah. 6. His post 200 seems like a wagon jump as well.

Huntress is actually borderline, and her latest involvement in the RC wagon is making her look better. The one thing in my notes regarding her is that while I agreed with

most

of Post 161, I didn't see how this lead to the vote on RC that came with it. Jahudo I think picks up on this in Post 167. Huntress explains it's mainly the rolefishing, although that was one point I didn't agree with. RC is toeing the line on how far role speculation should go, but I don't see anything he's done that has the potential to force a PR to come out. (More on RC further down.)

SpyreX, OGML, and Bionic

Post 153 touches on what I had been thinking about Pops pre-replacing.

If I am right about pops and I end up being a mislynch tomorrow for it, fine. 1-1 is alright by me.

Fits my general town meta of SpyreX, although I admit I have no scum meta to compare to. In the past I've tended to think a lot like Spyre, this game is no exception.

I agree with OGML posts 198 and 240, particularly his analysis of Rhinox. When I was reading along I noticed a few questions/accusations thrown against Korts and I'm not sure if he responded to all of them or not. I'm going to assume you're content with what Korts said and I can't really say what he was thinking anyways, but if there's something sticking out for you please re-ask and I'll try to answer it.

Bionic has seemed protown throughout. There was one post I remembered agreeing with a lot that I didn't write the number of. 216 is good posting, and is actually the

only

decent case I've seen raised against RC, although I still think this is dwarfed by Rhinox's scumminess.

Red Coyote

I honestly couldn't believe RC was at L-1 when I was around pages 7 and 8. I see the votes, and I see the reasoning, but it just doesn't add up for me. Until RC started taking pressure, I didn't see anything wrong with his SK discussion and considered him to be fairly protown if anything. He has seemed to squirm a little since he started being attacked. His defensive posts come off seemingly hostile towards those arguing against him, and not only towards Rhinox or Pops, which I think is a small tell. However I agree with his Rhinox case, and the speed with which his wagon blossomed says to me that something's amiss.

The fact that in the face of what I view to be equally damning cases, RedCoyote is the one who attracted the L-1 wagon and Rhinox isn't means one of two things: RedCoyote is not on Rhinox's scumteam, and Rhinox's team is lynching RC.

My train of thought is similar to this, although as I've said I don't think RC is scum. I see some of the points against RC, but they all sound like "You're wrong!" statements rather than "You're scum!" statements, yet that's exactly why people are voting him. I think that's the work of the Rhinox scumteam is using this to tilt the vote towards RC.

Pops

I like Spyre's analysis of Pops from 153. This is my minor scumspect for D1. Early reading had me leaning his way. His posts seemed to be all filler. Korts picked up on this waaay early in 44, which can be excused as RVS or early game or w/e, but to me it hasn't really changed since then. Pops's 162 seems like an exaggeration of the usefulness of his tell. It comes off to me as more of an attempt to promote his towniness to the masses than of protecting a tell. 185/186 is a super wagon-jump tied with a crap reason for leaving the Rhinox wagon, and I'm surprised no one has mentioned it. All in all, I could've easily supported a Pops lynch today, were it not for Scumzilla, King of the Mobsters.

Rhinox

Coming in late, it's hard to list everything Rhinox has done to deserve a lynch. I know a lot of this has been said, but I simply can't leave it out. Page 7 was full of tastey nuggets.

So, you insult everyone by thinking that any town power roles would be too stupid to take into consideration any possible roles when making their night choices? Thats what all this has been about? So you can state the obvious, in an attempt to look like a perfect little highly informative townie?

This is a huge stretch, and AtE which Rhinox is guilty of throughout the day.

Although even good scum players can make some mistakes, do you think a good scum player would make the obvious mistake that I made?

Blatant WIFOM.

Unfortunately for me, there just hasn't been enough time for ANYONE to have stacked up a mountain of overwhelming town play... if you guys quicklynch me, that won't change. If you don't, then maybe I can turn around and be more pro-town.

Blantant WIFOM and AtE in the same sentence.


Jumping to post 171:

We all know the setup possibilies... stated very clearly after the rules... And you still haven't shown how any particular town role should play D1 differently by assuming there is an sk.

Of all the rolefishing accusations thrown at RC, I think this one by Rhinox stands out worse than any of them. He's blatantly asking for speculation on

specific

town power roles, and I see it as instigating on top of that.

But, You can't have a conversation with someone without thinking you're being attacked? Sounds overdefensive, imo...

Utter BS coming from Rhinox, who has already said;

So you don't 100% believe my explanation. Fair enough... I haven't really given you or anyone a reason to trust anything I've said. So I guess the question I should be asking everyone right now is if the initial suspicion from my contradiction is strong enough for a lynch, are I can't say anything to alleviate that initial suspicion, are you all prepared to end the day now with a quick lynch on me, or do you feel conversation should continue?

This is not only AtE, but it's calling out

anyone

who votes for him after this point, and is setting up for future lynches if he can shift the wagon from him today when he doesn't even know who will vote him yet.

Resulting to ad hom now to try to get me lynched...

At least I was man enough to admit when I messed up.

Not scummy but a flat 180 from "oh ad hom, you must not have a case," to using it himself. Same post.

Now this is interesting... On one hand, maybe you're trying to make a point, or just be an ass, by unvoting the player you're ALREADY VOTING FOR and voting them again... On the other hand, this makes me think you're not playing serious enough to remember who you were voting for. This really makes me think you are just fabricating this case on me -

if you had genuine suspicions of me, you would have remembered you were already voting me

...

This line is mega-BS. I assumed RC just forgot he was voting Rhinox when I read the post in question. But are you really trying to say he's scum slipping up because he's not paying attention, after the entire Pops fiasco where you claimed VI and said, "Scum wouldn't make such an obvious slip would they?" It's almost the exact same thing Rhinox did himself, except Rhinox admits to it while RC's looks like a simple mistake.

177 is a stretch that looks like fishing for a reason to press Korts, which is kind of minor. But it's also a misrep of Korts's stance on Pops, as pops was continuously posting fluff to hide non-contributing, while Korts's post was obviously a check-in until he made a real post.

Rhinox has also been strongly pushing the RC wagon along, (see everything above) and yet he's doing so from the sidelines by holding his vote. He's devoting all his posts to attacking RC, and he hasn't called anyone else scummy, but he's not voting. Why? So he can shuck the responsibility for it when RC flips town. In 207 he calls out the entire RC wagon. Not those who hopped on, or those who look suspicious, the whole wagon. This is setting up a D2 vote if RC gets lynched and shielding from getting votes on D2 by having something to point at and say he was "against" the RC lynch.

Yeah, I did say that. But that was only 1 possibility. I don't know why I didn't list every possibility. Maybe I just thought it would be assumed.

Backtracking. Obviously I might add. 254 is his first real vote in god knows how many pages, and it looks solidly like OMGUS to me.

If all you mean by 'suspicious' is "It's possible they're scum, because it's always possible that somebody is scum", then why bother pointing out specific behaviours as 'suspicious'? Isn't everything anyone says 'suspicious', by your definition?

I agree with this, and it's another example of Rhinox squirming around with different explanations for scummy actions. (This is out of place, but I had it noted under IAUN instead of Rhinox for some reason, and I don't remember where it goes.)


In conclusion, Rhinox is hard-core scum and I can't fathom how RC has more votes than him. There's consistent WIFOM, AtE, stretching/exaggeration, backtracking, and sidelines wagon pushing. I would much much much rather see a Rhinox lynch than an RC.

Vote: Rhinox

[CF Riot]

400 pages!

(Other game, "You'll even win at IRONY!" had me lolling.)

[CF Riot]

Response to Rhinox's last attempt at a defense. Won't touch on what was aimed at RC, but for my half here's the rebuttal.

So, you insult everyone by thinking that any town power roles would be too stupid to take into consideration any possible roles when making their night choices? Thats what all this has been about? So you can state the obvious, in an attempt to look like a perfect little highly informative townie?

This is a huge stretch, and AtE which Rhinox is guilty of throughout the day.

That was not a stretch at all.

I very strongly disagree.

A player is role A. That player can either assume there is an sk, or assume nothing about scum factions. Will that player's actions change at all as a result of either assumption? I believe the answer is no, and I believe RC has not effectively answered that question, despite his insistance to the contrary.

And while I agree with you on that, I think you asking RC what "PlayerA as RoleA"

should

do is rolefishing.

Wow... I must be magical. I'm trying to shift a wagon off myself that doesn't even exist. Or didn't you realize that the wagon has been on RC much more than me so far.

At the time the statement in question was made, you were the leading wagon with 4 votes.

so just because I made a simple mistake, I lose the right to call anybody out the rest of the game for something that may or may not be a simple mistake?

Also, what bullshit is it that my simple mistake is viewed as anything but, but RC's simple mistake was automatically assumed to just be an honest mistake...

1) It seems to me that town-you, having made a simple mistake earlier in the game that drew attention to yourself, would not immediately assume that RC was making a scum-slip because you would realize the parallels between the two actions. However scum-you, who realizes that the mistake you made actually

is

scummy, would try to press that tell when you saw someone else do it.

2) When I first read what you did to pops, I didn't assume it was a scum mistake. I assumed, just like I did with RC, that you simply forgot, which anyone could do. What changed my opinion was how you responded when people took note of it. You pulled out all this AtE claiming you were a VI, and then brought up the WIFOM of "scum are too careful to make little mistakes like this," which is all crap. I think you got jumpy when someone called you on a dumb mistake, which makes me think you've got a reason to be worried about the spotlight shining your way.

177 [is a] misrep of Korts's stance...

Despite being under enormous suspicion, I was at least trying to continue scumhunting, but even that turned out to be total phail due to an oversight on my part.

The way you word this makes it look like you're refuting one of my points, but basically what you're saying is you

did

misrep another player.

Another case of spinning everything into a way that supports a theory... I haven't been pushing the RC wagon at all. We have been having a conversation.

O RLY?

So you can state the obvious, in

an attempt to look like a perfect little highly informative townie

?

But, You can't have a conversation with someone without thinking you're being attacked?

Sounds overdefensive, imo

...

Resulting to ad hom now

to try to get me lynched

...

this makes me think you're not playing serious enough to remember who you were voting for. This really makes me think

you are just fabricating this case on me

Rhinox thinks my point about 224 is not explained and not a case of backtracking.

Didn’t you say it sounded like a "bad attempt at distancing" though? As in scum distancing scum, or did you mean it sounded like scum distancing from town?

Yeah, I did say that. But that was only 1 possibility. I don't know why I didn't list every possibility. Maybe I just thought it would be assumed.

This is such a terrible defense. If you make a point of saying that X may be indicative of Y, you are implicitly stating that you think that is more likely than not. If you weren't, there would be absolutely no point in saying it in the first place. This is just a half-baked excuse to try to get out of being held accountable for your words.

Says it better than I can.

And your last point is about how you aren't pushing the RC wagon along, which I think I've shown to be false. So out of the 10 or so accusations I've made against you, you only responded to 7 of them, and I just destroyed 6 of them. Vote stays.
----
I really don't like the wording of Pops 286. Pops what are you trying to get at with this statement?

If it is going to come down to lynch Rhinox or not today that is. Perhaps the premature claim works with the possibility of jailkeepers?

----
For the SpyreX scum Triad, I'd like BC to explain why he finds Pops as the least likely of the three. I agree with

Unapologetically unhelpful (see the you aint got nothin on me coppa defense) + hiding in plain sight + bandwagon voting = delicious scum cookie. Come take a bite.

----
@BC RE: post structure. As you said, whether or not someone is lurking doesn't depend on the actual number of posts, it depends on the content. I felt like IAUN, Spy and Jahudo had been contributing, and Huntress, MME and Rishi had not. I didn't actually intend to write a section about each individual player in the game. The way I took notes was simply to write everything I noticed or thought important under the name of the player that said it. When I was done, there was something written under almost every player, so when I posted it sort of looked like I was trying to analyze everyone, but I was actually just focused on the game as a whole. The one thing I had written about IAUN was a quote he made about Rhinox, but I felt like it fell under Rhino's category more than IAUN's.
----
RE: The bottom half of Rhinox's 311, if Rhinox flips scum I would be willing to wager he has a partner somewhere in Rishi/Pops/Huntress.

[CF Riot]

@BC, I missed your links when I originally posted. I actually missed about the last 3 posts before mine. For this:

This begs to question how much content was really included in his posts. It wasn't enough for him to say anything suspicious, but he also didn't land in your town grouping.

I think you answered your own question. There's some gray between scum and town, and I haven't pulled every player out of that area yet.

For the comment on Rhinox; I wanted to make my statement when I saw the offense. The way Rhinox responds to Spyre's numbers seems like an offhand defense of that group. It's not going to affect my voting today, and it will only be relevant

if

Rhinox flips scum, but I think it's best to call out tells as they occur, rather than fishing them up later.
----

So i asked in that post whether maybe the jailkeeper has any sort of positive synergy with vanilla townies that would justify leaving Rhinox alive..

What is your opinion on this issue?

If you really would lynch me even if you looked up my meta and it showed that i'm playing pops-town, i want you to tell me right now if you are trying to play to your win condition. Because if you are playing to you're win condition and that's really you're policy, i have no logical choice but to vote you.

And if you meta'd SpyreX and found that this is his policy in all his town games, wouldn't you be committing the same act you're calling out by policy voting him

for

policy voting you?

[CF Riot]

Re: Redcoyote case: no one seems to understand my special treatment of RC. He's like K7, in a different way, evidence shows that i can't read him. In this case it's not because he won't post, it's because he's too good at this game. Since i became 99% sure of the incorrect result one time when he was scum, it's safe to say that my general scumhunting analysis of him is useless. The only hope i could have is a meta analysis.

This is pure BS, but I'll pretend it's not for a second. If you admittedly have a hard time reading RC as a player and you're handicapped to a 1 game meta, why would he be your top suspect D1?
----

there is no way to defend against my main offense (AtE) without using more AtE

Ok, I'm about sick of this line. What is wrong with you saying, "Hey guys, I got a little heated and stopped being logical for a bit. I'll try not to do that in the future."? It's not that you

have to

respond with AtE's, you're

choosing

to.

I don't see how any answer RC would give me would help me determine anyones role

Ok, so say you asked RC that. RC says, "Well I think the town Banana Peeler should use his powers N1 on someone who's staying neutral because Banana Peels are more effective on SKs and I think neutral people are more likely SKs." You may (as scum) infer from this that RC knows the town has a Banana Peeler. Or you may infer that RC is not a Banana Peeler because he wouldn't openly choose his own role for the example. Or you may be hoping that someone else answers your question for him, talking about some other random role. I don't really care how you

could

interpret it, I'm just saying that it has the potential to draw PR tells, and I really think you already know that.

RE: Accidents vs Mal-intent. What you did doesn't look like something that can be explained as, "Whoops, I missed something you wrote." You directly quoted something he said, and described it in a way that I felt was misrepresentative of the quote. I don't see how anything else he said earlier or later could make that an "accident" on your part.

If I were pushing the RC wagon from the sideline, why would I just speak up against it knowing that I'm looking like the sure lynch if RC isn't lynched?

Well for one, this is WIFOM again, but the easy answer is to gain town cred if the RC wagon does go through. You're giving the town an alternative place to look for scum tomorrow if RC flips town, which takes heat off you and gives you something to add to any vote you make on someone who was on RC's wagon.

The way you say "flips" scum makes it sound like you would be suprised if I were scum - sounds a little odd coming from someone who strongly believes me to be scum.

Hahaha. Would you rather me say "after you flip scum, which I'm 100% sure of,"? SpyreX already tried that and you don't seem to like that either.

[CF Riot]

@Rhinox on the rolefishing argument: I think you're really being thick. I don't know if it's staged or legit, but our discussion is getting to the point now that I don't feel comfortable taking it any further with you. I think what you did

was

rolefishing for the reasons I've listed. You disagree, naturally, but your counter-points have not convinced me.

Then, korts posts a "placeholder" post, which I interpret as posting for the sake of posting.

You're interpretation seemed way off, to the point that I don't think you as town could have possibly read it that way. It was also pointing to Korts scum, so that gave scum-you motive. Therefore I read it as intentional misrep.

What if RC is scum?

Then I admit I was wrong and we continue from there. I think most of what you have done is scummy regardless of RC's alignment, but if he flipped scum I would reconsider all my reads taking the new information into account. I'm not assuming RC is town

because

I'm assuming you're scum. I have a scum read on you, and a town read on him, and I'm using those as a base of information when reading your posts.

The "flip" thing has been addressed, and I apologize for being snarky in responding when you just didn't understand the word. Also, I don't think you claimed too early given the circumstances, but then again, I also think you're lying.

[CF Riot]

@Rhinox:

I think you're misreading, but I'm not sure how to explain any better. We're clashing right now. You're voting me, when I know I'm town. Because of that, I can't analyze you objectively.

I don't know whether my points have merit or not.

I feel if I voted for you, it would basically be OMGUS and not because I think you're likely scum. So

I'm consciously fighting the urge to do that

.

Given this, why do you keep harping that you think the RC wagon is scum-fueled? It seems to me that you're saying

you do

think your reasons for suspecting RC are valid, but you're choosing not to pursue them for fear that you may be tunnel-visioned or something. Do you think that is a fair interpretation of your position? Clarify?
----

Pops

's "lynching vanillas is protown" policy makes no sense. I thought he was pushing lynching people who claim early, which makes

some

sense, but this I don't understand. I also want an answer for the top of 354.

[CF Riot]

I tried writing a post Thursday night but the library computers crashed twice in a row so I gave up.

First, Pops, I totally get the reason you gave for voting RC. What I don't get is, if you have 1 admittedly broken thermometer and 1 you're not sure of, why are you checking his temperature already? Moriarty already mentioned it, but you're ignoring the fact that every other player in the game may not be as handicapped as you, and you're ignoring the possibility of other suspects. The K7 analogy is off too, because out of the 3 times I've played with him, we haven't lynched him yet and he's been town every time. It seems like if you know you have a hard time reading someone, you would want to wait longer to try and pull more tells. You resigning to lynching him D1 seems to me like you're more worried about having a good reason out there for us to read than you are about actually determining his alignment.

@IAUN: I get your logic on vanilla claims D1. It makes sense, but that's also not what Pops said. Look as his post right after yours, and that's why Pops bothers me. He has a town read on Rhinox and a scum read on RC, but he thinks his policy is enough to make his vote shift from scum to non-scum. A vanilla claim does not sway you that much.
----
Although I did have a town read, and I think I still do, RC's last post is starting to get a little out there. Rhinox's claim seems really early now when we've gotten our last few extensions, but given the situation at the time and if you consider the possibility that he's telling the truth, a vanilla claim when it happened actually makes sense. I also think you're really stretching now in calling what BC did "entrapment". I see your side, and I actually agree that assuming BC had a town-meta on Rhinox was a reasonable assumption to make, but to say he intentionally tried to coerce you into making that statement when he was already voting you (and didn't need a reason to join the wagon) is really jumping to unlikely conclusions.

That said, RC is completely right about Rhinox's defense of "I didn't hammer." To argue that this is a town-tell is beyond weak. Aside from the fact that a premature hammer is begging for attention, I had just replaced in and took RC off of L-1 so the tides were definitely shifting at the time.
----
BC what do you think of my opinions of Rhinox in 269? What do you think about his constant dancing around words and rewording his statements after the fact? Do you think what I've cited (in that post and further posts) as rolefishing by Rhinox has merit? Do you think Rhinox's actions have in fact helped push the RC wagon?
----
Huntress what is your opinion of Rhinox? Do you think the case on him is valid? If you were the only one suspicious of RC today, who would you be voting for?

[CF Riot]

In the same way, i wouldn't post content alongside fluff if i wanted to conceal scumtells, that doesn't even accomplish the goal. Fluff alongside content isn't a tell in any county anyway.

The problem with this is I don't think you are posting content with your fluff.

@All: I still would like a Rhinox lynch. If we cannot get that I could join the pops wagon because of WIFOM, piggyback voting, and fluff posting.

I'm all for this. I think if Pops is a 7 on the scum scale, Rhinox is a 9, but I'd still rather lynch Pops than RC. I think RC's summary of Pops's play is valid, and I don't think Pops's defense really refutes any of it. Interested in the answer to 453.

@Spy

, and this will probably piss you off, can you clarify something for me? Do you think RC and Rhinox are

more likely town

as in town-read on both, or do you simply lack a scum read on either?

@BC

, OK I understand that, and there's nothing wrong with that, except it doesn't answer my questions at all.

Mainly I want to hear from Rishi and Huntress.

This plus Moriarty and OGML, although I did read OGML's excuse so I doubt we'll here from him soon.

[CF Riot]

Vi, quit giving bionicchop uber safe night-choice-claims!

Expand on this. I don't see what you mean.

I agree with Jahudo. This is pretty much just speculation, but wouldn't it also be to Spyre-scum's benefit

not

to kill Rhinox, and leave the possibility of a Rhinox wagon that he didn't have to be a part of? I mean, don't scum generally like to stay off of mislynches if they can? Pops's whole 516 just looks like rationalizing an excuse to vote someone who's putting pressure on him.

The RC/BC two jailer issue is weird, but given the context I'm weary of calling BC scum based on that alone. In

jailbreak

mafia, I definitely would not count out the possibility of multiple jailers.

Pops is my next top suspect. I don't like the waffling and fluff from yesterday, and I don't like the NK speculation that lead to his vote today. I need to do a reread now with the info that Rhinox is town, but until then I feel like this is a good place to start.

Vote: Pops

[CF Riot]

Because Rhinox was some super lynch bait, and as scum you don't

have

to vote someone for them to get lynched. I personally think

anyone

in this game as scum would have benefited from leaving Rhinox alive, not just SpyreX. I haven't yet figured out who would benefit from him dying. The "he won't get protected" argument doesn't seem like enough. The Spy, "Hey my town reads were right, so you should follow me today," argument doesn't seem likely either, because he could've just as easily let the town lynch Rhinox then made that same play on D3.

None of this is to say that Spyre can't be scum, it's just that I don't see how you can conclude Spyre = scum based off it, when it just as easily points the other way.

[CF Riot]

lol. Your name had less notes under it than huntress or jahudo, so I missed it when I scrolled down my notes. You can add yourself to the 4some if you want.

See what I mean?

@Pops

Vi, quit giving bionicchop uber safe night-choice-claims!

Expand on this. I don't see what you mean.

Huntress: Why do you think Spyrex is scum?

I do like this though.

[CF Riot]

<3 SpyreX is gud at this game.

Jahudo

, why do you feel like you need to hear Pops's responses before voting today, when you were considering lynching him yesterday just before deadline? Is there any reason you are choosing to question him before voting, rather than questioning him with a vote on him?

Rishi

, is the question in 537 rhetorical? If not, who specifically would you like to answer this? Why exactly did you feel like Pops was town yesterday? What's tipping the scales for you right now? On a scale from -10 to +10, with 0 being neutral, -10 being obv scum, and +10 being conf. town, where is Pops for you right now?

Moriarty

, what are you looking for in your reread? Why are you hesitant to vote Pops today when you were voting for him all of yesterday?

Thread would like some OGML today.

[CF Riot]

As I said, I don't see any of the 2 vote holders as scum ATM, so I will start my own fun non-wagon which likely will go nowhere. yay!

Why is this line attached to your post? What is the point of placing a vote then adding this disclaimer?

Less and less he has reasons, more and more he just says i'm scum.

But the reasons he (and others) have already given are strong, and you haven't really refuted any of them.

[CF Riot]

Rishi, is the question in 537 rhetorical? If not, who specifically would you like to answer this? Why exactly did you feel like Pops was town yesterday? What's tipping the scales for you right now? On a scale from -10 to +10, with 0 being neutral, -10 being obv scum, and +10 being conf. town, where is Pops for you right now?

Bumping this so it doesn't get missed.

Somewhere in the middle today has been

RC

and IAUN...

I'm assuming this is a typo. Who did you mean?
----
@BC, that's what I'm trying to decide. That vote looks just like when people say, "I'm going to vote so-and-so for pressure," which is totally meaningless because it's taking away all weight from the vote by saying it's just for pressure. So where does your vote/statement fall? If it's not a serious vote, why not FoS him? Do you feel you need to be voting someone? If it is serious, why are you calling it a "non-wagon"? If you really think Pops and Spy are town and really think what Jah did was scummy then why aren't you trying to convince those on the other wagons to change their mind?

[CF Riot]

I can't tell how you meant it. That's why I'm asking. If you think he's scum and no one else seems to agree, does that concern you? If you think the leading wagonee is town, does it concern you now?

Pops, for as many posts as you have on this page, you sure aren't finding scum in any of them. Is Huntress your only suspect?

[CF Riot]

I'm supposed to post today or be prodded, but really there hasn't been that much happen since my last post. Tod (heh, cool abbreviation) needs to get his thoughts laid out. Pops is still lookin' guilty. Looking for connections but not really seeing any. BC seemed almost obv town yesterday, but I've had a queasy feeling about him all day long today.

[CF Riot]

@Spy, does it help town for you and I to argue over who could and couldn't be tied to Pops and how we know it, or is that just giving scum free info?

[CF Riot]

Does your guy have a beard?


Oh wait. Urm. I actually don't see any strong ties. Of

possibles

there's one amongst the non-voters that stands out to me. There is one amongst the voting. The one not voting seems like a more votable votee than the voter.

Follow?

[CF Riot]

O RLY? I think one of our suspects is mutual, and I think that one is sort of obvious but I don't think the connection between them and Pops is strong really. I'm guessing at your second choice based off how you thought one was voting and the other not. If it's who I think then I was sort of testing that earlier, but I honestly think that person is pretty townish right now. I think my non-voting suspect is more likely scum (with or w/o Pops-scum) than both your suspects.

[CF Riot]

Neither of my suspects are on the Pops wagon. Your turn. You can start using names whenever you want and I'll go with it, or even ask me to use names first, but I think it's more fun dropping clues and being vague about it. =P

@Pops, why do you really need Huntress to post if you

already

think she's scummy? Like, why don't you just highlight the reasons you suspect her and make a case out of that?

[CF Riot]

Ha. I guess I could've figured that out before we ever started if I'd just been paying attention. End D1 commentary plus flip for BC and the Huntress hate all day. I actually thought one of your suspects

was

on the Pops wagon, and you confused yourself saying the one not on the wagon was "not voting".

My voter-suspect is Huntress. Her lurkiness has me worried in general, and I don't remember a real reason for

not

suspecting Pops. Them both coming out today voting you is why I said that one is obvious, but at the same time I think that may be a little too obvious. I don't really see scum being that blatantly cooperative. Huntress also seems like a scapegoat type scum target, who lots of people say they're mildly suspicious of until there's enough to push a lynch through. I'm in a bad spot because I'm both leery of a Huntress wagon being scum fueled, but at the same time I'm sort of leery of Huntress herself.

My nonvoter-suspect is OGML/Tod. I don't think either of OGML or Pops acknowledged each other much D1 or even today, which concerns me on OGML's part since Pops has been a central topic of discussion. If Pops flips scum I'm going to follow this lead before the Huntress one, but Tod's presence in game will affect my opinion.

I hadn't really considered a BC/Pops pair until now. I think when Pops originally came up and BC was voting RC, I had a generally town read of BC and I believed his explanation of Pops-meta leading him to a town read. Pops's summary of BC a few posts above mine seems to support this pairing though.

[CF Riot]

@Pops, why do you really need Huntress to post if you already think she's scummy? Like, why don't you just highlight the reasons you suspect her and make a case out of that?

Pops, why don't you do this instead?

Jahudo, you can start lurking now cause your avatar scares me. The less you post, the less I'll have to look into those dead eyes.

[CF Riot]

Wow. Just wow. Don't cry, I love you Pops. I really do. You just make this game so fun.

I think replacing out of a game is a null tell. I think flaking out of a game is null, I think ignoring prods is null. I think lurking is a scum tell, because it

does

benefit scum, but replacing just seems to affect everyone. I've seen cops asked to be replaced and scum flake so I don't think that holds any weight with me.

I wish someone not voting Pops, besides Pops himself, would post. 4 days till deadline ladies and gents. All you people preaching this, "I'll get to you later," stuff are eventually going to run out of "later".

Is it time for a Pops claim?

[CF Riot]

Wow Pops, you reread Rishi in 10 minutes? "Playing ref" pushed him above SpyreX (never explained this vote) and Huntress?

IAUN makes a good case. I'll need to look at the posts myself and I'd like to hear Rishi's response. Rishi's lack of content seemed suspect D1, but failing to send the mod a PM, while not really a

town

tell, does support his lack of activity. I also thought his one big post today was townish.

On top of this, Moriarty's vote seems a little out of place. He(she?) gives reasons in that very post why Pops is scummy and he's been saying he's suspicious of Pops all day without committing to a vote. After 1 person makes a case on Rishi, he votes.

The person who actually

made

the case and the case itself look legit, but this wagon is setting off all kinds of alarms for me.

[CF Riot]

Ah, my one saving grace about Rishi is that he didn't wagon Pops when he could have but now he is. On the reverse, Pops is voting Rishi and admitting it's to save himself, so it puts it back at neutral. I think Pops has been scummier.

Moriarty is waffling big-time. Someone doesn't know who they're supposed to be voting when the hammer drops. Mor, what about Pops last few posts were any worse than his play all day?

I'd like to hear what Huntress thinks about both wagons before we get a hammer.

[CF Riot]

I doubt we have 3-1 in a twelve man game with no cop. Plus 3 flipped vanillas. I'm thinking it's probably 3 maf, 2 maf + SK, or 2 maf + 2 maf in that order.

In 3 mafia, no lynch helps by eliminating a suspect plus possible night results. I don't really see any disadvantage.

In 2+1 worst case (no protects, no cross kills) it could potentially take us to D4 with a 3 town 2 mafia and 1 SK mylo where hitting the SK would lose the game, and even then we'd need at least 1 cross kill the following night to have a shot at winning. But if there were a protect or a cross kill the first night it would be significantly better. Best case is double cross kill leading to a 5 town 1 mafia D4 with a tracker result on the last mafioso. That'd be the luckiest night in mafia history though.

In 2+2 worst case would be 2,2,2 D4. I don't really know what town strategy is in that situation. But going into N3 (tonight) each scum team would have a 1/3 probability of hitting the other team, plus possible protects plus possible watcher results. Best case is 4,1,1 plus tracker results. I think 2 scum teams of 2 is the least likely set-up though.

So basically if there's one scum group, no lynch is optimal play. If there's two then regardless of which set-up it is, if we no lynch and things go bad, they go very bad. If we no lynch and get lucky, it could be a pretty big gain. I think the chances of things going

perfectly wrong

are pretty low, and a 3 man team seems like the most probable set-up anyways. I think I'm pro-no lynch.

[CF Riot]

Having thought about a No lynch I've come to the conclusion that the ones who have most to gain from it are the scum.

Elaborate.

[CF Riot]

Why now? Moriarty just said (s)he needs some time to reread, and I have a question pending for Huntress. I actually would like to let the discussion continue as long as there are actual opinions out there people would like to share. There were 5 posts Wednesday and 4 today. Vi is just being dramatic.

[CF Riot]

The jailer is definitely not as powerful as a cop or a doc, but it IS a protective role.

Jailers are arguably a lot more powerful than docs. Jailers are more confirmable and have at least double the chance of stopping a kill, sometimes more. They are more swingy, so maybe not as

protown

as a doc, but more powerful.

Massclaim is obv. Rishi is a good number 1. I'd also like to see Moriarty and Jahudo claim sooner than later.

[CF Riot]

Popcorn or fixed order? Almost every game I've been in we've done popcorn, but I don't know why because that lets scum protect their buddies. BC who would you like to see claim next?

[CF Riot]

Jah, I'm

still

not RC. I'm vanilla.

[CF Riot]

@Jah: How much do you think an extra JK affects the balance of a game if a doc and 1 JK are already present? Do you think the game could be balanced with 1 doc and 1 JK? Do you think it could be balanced with 1 doc and 2 JKs?

BC can you explain why you jailed OGML night 1? I don't know how this wasn't brought up in the first place, but I looked back and can't find you mentioning it anywhere.

Rishi who's scum? Why?

[CF Riot]

Ok, here's the things that are bothering me.

BC: Why didn't you jail Rhinox N1? He was considered scummy by roughly half the town, and at one point during the day you voted him yourself. On top of this, he claimed vanilla, which made him prime meat for a jailer.

Secondly, why did you have 95 posts D1 and

15

on D2?
----
Moriarty: Post 661, followed by yours truly, then 668. Look at the order of events in context. All same page, what exactly caused the vote switch?

I want

MOAR POSTING

from this player.
----
Right now I'm feeling really sketchy about Rishi. I think the points IAUN made at the end of D2 are good. (He's dead now btw.) Moriarty's waffling between Rishi and Pops says scum team to me. (Originally I thought Pops + Mor, now I'm thinking Rishi + Mor.) Rishi's D2 was basically only saying he was suspicious of Huntress and OGML, but without ever telling why or asking any questions. Today there are reasons, but it looks more like, "there's enough here to justify my vote," rather than "these things make me think Huntress is scum." The Jah thing throws me a bit, but I don't know if that's a positive or a negative. I'll wait for the reasons.
----
I'm not hot on a Huntress lynch right now. Partially because Rishi is supporting it, and partially because I don't think what's been held up against her is that scummy. I actually feel like Huntress was adding a decent amount to the discussion D1. D2 was not so good. There was a lot of "I have suspicions but I can't talk about them right now," and when the day ended we still hadn't heard about them. I really don't get the SpyreX hate, but at the same time what does Huntress-scum gain from pushing that vote?

I would like to see some real cases from Huntress today though.

[CF Riot]

He wasn't even in my top 3 by the end of the day. That was fairly clear to anybody reading.

Yeah but the thing is, according to your claim

you're not a roleblocker

. You're a jailer. Jailers can benefit from targeting scum

or

town, and they hurt the town by targeting PRs. Rhinox claimed vanilla, so it seems like he'd be an obvious choice for a N1 block, even if you thought there were scummier people at the time.

I also don't see how getting bored or lazy or w/e accounts for your posting dropping

that

significantly. If you posted about half as much D2 I could see that, but you had 80 less posts and none of them had the same amount of content as your average post D1.

Who do you think is scum right now?
----
Jah I don't really understand your last post.

[CF Riot]

Eh, I don't think it'd be that hard really. BC still isn't even close to my top suspect, but I'm thinking if it's lylo we might as well discuss everything there is left to discuss. The only role I can see breaking a JK claim is watcher, and even that'd have a rough time. If BC is a scum-RB then he has a way to fool a watcher who sees him targeting some given person, and also ensures that if the person was a PR, they can't break his claim because they will really have been blocked. And if it's a 3 man scum team like I think it is, they could have guessed that there wouldn't be a SK in the game so there wouldn't be a risk of the person he targeted dying (which would bust a JK claim). The only other way he gets caught is if a massclaim reveals way more power than the town should have, but in that case we'd still have to sort through which PRs seem town and which seem scum, and BC's early CC would give him townpoints, just like it is now.

I don't think BC's claim is like OMG SCUMCLAIM and there's still a good chance he's town. There's also lots of better lynches today, like Rishi. But I think this is all worth talking about, and I'm concerned with BC's lack of posting even if he is town because he had a great D1 and now I'm not seeing that same sort of effort. I would feel a lot better if we had about 4 people today who shot beams of pro-townness out of all there posts, but I'm not seeing it.

[CF Riot]

@Jah, yes much better thanks. I meant to reply to that in my last post but I had work at 6 so I was posting as I was leaving. I can see your point, but I'm basically in the same boat. Moriarty's latest post pretty much explains exactly how I feel about Huntress and the wagon. I don't consider a crap case on a townish player a towntell really, but as Mor said, it doesn't really make sense as a scum move either.
----
@Mor, can you clear up the confusion over your gender since Jah and I keep tripping over which pronouns to use? =P More importantly, can you explain your vote switch from Rishi to Pops yesterday? Can you explain why you would rather lynch Jahudo than Rishi today?
----
@BC, yes thank you, I will. Does that mean you thought I was the most likely scum N2? What about Jahudo? What about Moriarty or Rishi, both of whom we knew didn't make an action N1 and therefore were also good JK targets?

The Jailer info from the role PM does lend you some credit though. I hadn't paid that much attention to the role, but I see now a fake Jailer claim is significantly more difficult than I had originally thought.
----
Rishi case is this. I think point 2 isn't very strong, and I don't agree with point 4 at all, because I've done that a lot as town and never thought twice about it. BUT I totally agree with the rest of the case, and I think the bolded plus this line

Secondly, the end of this one is horrible. Here's the first time he's listed any suspects besides RedCoyote, and he does so without any real case, and says he's "waiting for them to post".

are pretty strong tells. To that list, you can add this post, which looks like a big fat wagon hop, Moriarty's waffling at the end of D2, and this post, which isn't really saying "I think Huntress is scummy," but is saying, "I think enough people think Huntress is scummy for me to lynch her." I've also noted that Rishi and Moriarty are both calling Jah scum now out of absolutely nowhere. This is all from memory. I'm going to try to do a reread of Rishi if I get time this week and see if anything else sticks out.

[CF Riot]

Vote: Rishi

10 days to DL. Most likely lylo. The will-post-later excuse isn't cutting it for me anymore. This goes for Moriarty and Huntress as well. That said, I will probably be LA from Friday to Monday of this week. =P I will be back before deadline though. Speaking of which,

Vi, April 17 is a Friday.

People tell me I'm good at missing blindingly obvious things too often for comfort x.x ~Vi

[CF Riot]

I am not going to believe CFRiot is scum...

I'm flattered, really, but can you explain why exactly? Also, why is SpyreX in your list of possibles if, "he pretty much seemed and still seems one of the most pro-town people here"? Even though you've said you've cooled on Jahudo, can you explain why you were suspicious of him originally?

Huntress's case on Spy is now (if it wasn't already) obviously bologna, but I'm still not seeing why Huntress-scum needs to make a crappy case on Spy. I'm getting more of an OMGUS and tunnel-vision feel from it. Rishi has consistently been behind only popular wagons, and me too-ed his way through the entire game. Huntress is an okay lynch. Rishi is a good lynch.

[CF Riot]

Remind me to post something from my notes after Moriarty addresses my last post. Basically, Spy, I think you're getting ahead of yourself.

[CF Riot]

I'm back from the Easter weekend, not much has changed. Rishi's non-hammer is the most interesting thing. This means if there's 3 scum either Rishi is town or Huntress is scum. If that were true, it would actually be more likely a town tell than a scum tell for either of them. If Huntress was scum I would expect Rishi-scum to either go ahead and hammer to try and pull some town cred or just not post at all. If no new discussion comes up and the Huntress wagon eventually goes through to flip Huntress-scum, Rishi has just made himself a blatant partner. The other option is Rishi is not part of the team and either Mor will hammer any minute, or Huntress is scum.

If it's a two man team then I don't really know what conclusions to draw from the situation. If it's just two mafia then Rishi/Mor is done. Given our 3 claimed protective roles two plus an SK may be likely. Then a Rishi/Mor team would be possible since there was only 1 kill N1 but still unlikely. It would also lend more cred to BC's claim.

Answering Rishi's post. My vote wasn't a pressure vote, it was a vote for who I think is most likely scum. I had considered waiting to vote until later in the day, but Jah already had a vote on Huntress and you made it clear that you were still devoting limited time to the game, so it didn't seem like waiting would help. Your second quote of me isn't guessing 2 man scum teams, it's guessing possible pairings. I didn't think to say "Mor + Pops + _____ or Mor + Rishi + _____" at the time because it didn't seem necessary to what I was pointing out. The next one is a little wrong. Yes, technically speaking there's only scum and not-scum, but just like any other day there are people you think are

probably scum

or

maybe scum

or

probably not scum

. Lylo isn't any different than any other day in that respect, and my comment was saying you seem more likely scum than BC to me.

[CF Riot]

Mor, please respond to post 790 ASAP.

Jah, who do you think should hammer then? You named everyone not voting Huntress. I'm actually really thrown right now on my suspicions. I may change my vote today. Jah, who is partnered with Huntress?

[CF Riot]

Jah, who is partnered with Huntress?

[CF Riot]

Nevermind. I was getting super paranoid about no hammer cause I thought Huntress may be town, but honestly Huntress/Rishi/Mor just makes more sense than anything else. I don't think Mor is an SK because of the N1 no action. I think it's more likely that they're all goons and Huntress sent in the kill.

I want to see Moriarty and Rishi present cases before deadline hits

Does this still stand?

[CF Riot]

f

[CF Riot]

So Jah in your mind were you shooting for Rhinox-town or Rhinox-scum N1? Fun fun game. As mafia we just had too many failed kills. Hitting Jah N1 was lucky, as it lead to a correct SK suspicion. I don't know about Rishi, but I pretty much just psyched myself out of a Bio kill because of fear of a Watcher. We gambled for the win on the last night rather than playing it safe and unfortunately it didn't pay off, but I don't regret it.

Rhinox WAS scummy, RC was not, and really pops wasn't either. I think the modding was excellent. Consistent vote-counts, enjoyable flavor, timely prods. The TMI kind of bit us in the rear the last day, but it kept the heat off Rishi D2 so there were two sides to that coin. Vi figured out it was a bad move as soon as he did it so I'm not upset. The game balance looks good from where I sit. SK made it down to the last 5 and hit a scum, we made it as far as we could possibly get an not win. Seems balanced to me. Had there ever been a night of 2 kills where they weren't both scum town would've been in a world of hurt. ;]

Thanks to Rishi for scummin' it up with me. Despite the lack of posting in game, the night conversation really spoke for your level of investment. I have no problems with a scum-mate that makes it to lylo. Sorry we couldn't pull this one out.

[CF Riot]

Oh yeah, I meant to mention that earlier. Big thanks to ToD and Moriarty for stepping up to keep the ball rolling for us. Sorry to ToD for doing all that reading for nothing. =P Tough luck man.