Mini 739 ~ Mafia Jailbreak, Game Over

[Rishi]

Uh, why did I agree to join a game with Rhinox? The best part about modding Rhinox is that you don't actually have to read his posts.

Will catch up in the next 24 hours or so. Can't believe we're barely in the game, and I'm already behind. Feh.

[Rishi]

Okay. Caught up. Wow. A whole lot of nothing in this thread so far. I'll just make some random observations.

I've played with MME a couple times before, and this is usually how he plays - doesn't say much, keeps promising to post later, and then gets replaced.

He's a good player when he actually plays though. As for him confirming without voting - almost all games on this site (I would say 99%) have a confirmation stage before Day 1 and won't actually start until all players have confirmed. So I understand why he had no other content in his post. I guess my question for MME is this - did you notice from the posts above your confirmation vote that others started playing? If so, why didn't you start playing as well?

So, let's humor RedCoyote for a second and say that we'll be able to tell on Day 1 that there's an SK and, furthermore, that we will be able to distinguish the SK from Mafia. (IMHO, SK is scum - we don't worry about factions until we have some information to build connections.) So, RC, what planning should we do for the SK? How should this town prepare itself? If you're going to throw out the possibility, then you must have something in mind. Unless you keep touching on the SK to hide the fact that you are the SK.

pops - Jokes are fine in the RVS. But wouldn't you say we're out of it now? Why are you continuing with the jokes?

And I completely agree with OGML. Theory is totally an easy way for scum to look active without arousing suspicion. We can discuss theory until the cows (or h-cows) come home, but we won't be any closer to a lynch when we're done.

[Rishi]

I am going to

unvote; vote Rishi

after post 81.

- downplays the beginning game conversation to be about nothing
- seems to defend MME who isn't even being attacked or commented about. Perhaps to remind others that MME is currently not posting, while he buddies him
- after saying there is a whole lot of nothing, decides to add to what he called nothing by continuing SK talk (I have no issue with SK talk obviously, but find it hypocritical that someone claiming it is nothing add fuel to the flames)
- Then agrees with OGML for saying the theory discussion is pointless, meanwhile the 'theory' discussion about SKs and hunting is exactly what he is asking RC about.

1. I didn’t say the entire beginning game conversation was about nothing. But, considering we’ve had four pages and some very long posts, there’s a lot less content than it would seem.
2. People have commented on MME. If you say that no one is “currently” discussing MME, then you mean that no one mentioned him in half a page. Some of us don’t really have time to post five times a day. It was relevant conversation since the thread began – and since I haven’t had a real post in the game so far, I felt that I needed to say something.
3. I explained what I meant by “a whole lot of nothing.” I didn’t say that everything that came up was completely irrelevant. Obviously, it wasn’t, or I would have had a really short post. As I said, it’s just that the content-to-text ratio in this game seems low so far.
4. Theory discussion is not pointless (stop putting words in my mouth – and here’s a “theory” term for you: “strawmanning”) – it’s just easy for scum to hide in it. I am just wary when theory discussion goes on too long. As for asking questions to RC, how about you let him answer the questions before you jump to his defense and attempt to derail the conversation? Did you even think that maybe I might be going somewhere with this? I’ll make my point after RC responds.

Rhinox – You’re currently not suspicious of bionicchop, even after this last post? Interesting.

Alright. Back to work. Likely won’t be able to post again before tomorrow.

[Rishi]

Without reading back, tell me the last time MME was mentioned and what was mentioned about him. Then communicate the relevance of your comment to the previous discussion that occurred about him. IMO you defended a player who was not under (expressed) suspicion.

Ridiculous. Some people did remark on how MME didn't vote or do anything but confirm. You're talking as if I am dredging up something from weeks ago. It had been a relevant discussion in this game. I was making my first post. I had something to say about it.

Oddly I find this game chock full of early game content. We are on page 4 and already have at least 3 different players getting voted for reasons that aren't random.

Wow. You seem to be having reading comprehension issues in this game. I said that the content-to-text ratio in this game is low so far. I didn't say there was no content. There was a lot of fluff, though. There's becoming less fluff, though, so I'm not still saying this.

When something is paraphrased / interpreted, it is implicitly understood the person did not make that exact statement.

We can discuss theory until the cows (or h-cows) come home, but we won't be any closer to a lynch when we're done.

When the goal of the day is to come to a decision on a lynch and you say the topic of discussion does not work towards that goal, I feel comfortable paraphrasing it as 'pointless'. If that wasn't your intent, feel free to clarify.

My intent was not to say that theory discussion is pointless, but that it can't be all that we're doing. I think certain players, like RedCoyote, were avoiding any real issues in this game and avoiding making accusations. You can discuss some theory, but if you're doing nothing but discussing theory, you're just spinning your wheels.

How am I not letting RC answer? Where did I say we shouldn't discuss the topic you were discussing? My comment was you were being hypocritical. Maybe you failed to read any of my other posts, but I have not avoided the SK discussion and in fact I *gasp* started it in an attempt to engage Rhinox. Since you are fond of the term 'strawmanning', isn't that what you are doing when you misrepresent any part of my post as defending RC?

All right. What I said may have been a little unfair. What I was worried about was that you were trying to invalidate my line of questioning, so that when it came around to RC again, it would be a non-issue. Since RC answered the question, it's hardly relevant now.

Also, I said I didn't find bio scummy - not that I didn't find him suspicious.

I don't know if anyone else questioned this. What's the difference between scummy and suspicious? This is bordering on doublespeak.

Are you honestly going to sit here and tell me that you play the game the same way whether there is one or two killing parties?

At this point, yes. In fact, the only time it really affects things is much further down the line, when lynching one particular faction might give a win to the other. Also, once any scum are dead, it's helpful to look for connections, but we're not at that point yet.

Here's my issue with you, you're running around saying, "Hey, guys! We might have an SK! We should take that into consideration!" But, as far as I've seen (and you can correct me if I'm wrong), you have not offered one specific suggestion on what we should do to account for an SK. Okay, if we're supposed to play differently based on an SK, then HOW should we play differently? That's why it seems like you're creating a lot of noise but not providing any content.

You still said there was a whole lot of nothing and you mean content, so do you think people are making mountains out of moth hills (or however the phrase goes) with the suspicions on the first three pages?

Mole hills. To some degree, on the first three pages. There was some long posts on non-issues (and I don't have time to look back right now to give you specifics, but I can do this later if you want). Less so now.

[Rishi]

Gotta catch up tonight. Will post in the next 24 hours with some content.

[Rishi]

Rishi: Is my case against Rhinox valid enough for a vote? Is Korts' and iamusername and rest of crapwagon's arguments valid enough for a vote on me?

I don't know about Rhinox. Lately, I usually see appeals to emotion as towntells rather than scumtells. Good scum have icewater running through their veins and are usually a lot more careful about what they say. I also have the advantage of having modded Rhinox both as scum and town, and his posts seemed more crafted as scum (though – I'll admit that I just skimmed his posts a lot when I was modding) than as town. So I'm leaning towards Rhinox as town at the moment. Since a lot of others are suspicious though, I think I need to do a re-read on Rhinox.

As for you, I'll be honest. I am having a tough time getting a read on you. I might look at one of your other games when I have time.

If every way I've brought up still doesn't pass your bar for necessity, try this question on for size.

Does an SK necessarily have an easier time winning this game if we are to ignore (delibrately ignore) his probable presence until we can prove, without a doubt, that he exists?

If we managed to get to Day 3, and by some combination of Doctor saves, double shots, and any other interventional behavior, only one kill has gone through each night, is it then still unhelpful to discuss an SK?

I don't know if an SK has an easier time if we ignore him – SKs hardly ever win as-is. If there were only one kill each night, I wouldn't think SK discussion should be at the forefront on Day 3.

What I don't get is that, why is this all that you're discussing? And not only that, for the most part, you're discussing whether or not we should be discussing the SK and devoting a lot of space to it. Yes, I realize that a lot of people are asking you questions about it, but your answer to all the questions is pretty much the same. You are the one who is choosing to answer in a long-winded and repetitive manner. I can't believe that you can't take a step back and see how unhelpful all of this is.

Others have given good reasons for what you're doing. I particularly like Bio's 182.

Vote: RedCoyote

[Rishi]

I suddenly feel like Rhinox and RC being scumbuddies is not the stretch that I thought it was.

I don't know... I couldn't imagine them being scumbuddies. I won't say that scumbuddies never go after each other, but this is some pretty hardcore distancing. Kind of a big risk on Day 1.

Of course, they both could be scum on different teams. We need to speculate on how many scum groups there could be! (j/k)

Like others, I have read the walls of text but may need to read them again to extract the salient points. OGML's point was short and easy to respond to.

[Rishi]

Rishi has 6 posts. Yeah. 6. His post 200 seems like a wagon jump as well.

Yes, I realize this is bad. For me, it's a lack of free time as well. I can't really play while at work. I've been trying to make my posts count for something, but I'm not one of those people who has time to log on every five minutes. I'm lucky if I can get on once a day, which makes the intense reading in this game that much harder.

As for trying to bandwagon, RC, I had been attacking him since my first substantive post. True, the vote came pretty late, but the suspicion (using it in the "scummy" way, not the Rhinox definition) was there all along.

[Rishi]

I'm not sure what Spyrex is getting at. However, I do find it interesting that he singled out three of the five people on the RC wagon, and the other two people on the wagon were the only ones who responded to that post. Not sure what to do with it, exactly. But there's got to be some kind of deflection going on there.

So, SpyreX, it feels like you are presenting a classic case of confirmation bias. You've picked out three players in the game and you think they're scum and are unwilling to entertain any other notions. You've said before that you don't think either Rhinox or RC are scum, but have never said why.

[Rishi]

and assuming 4 scum in the game.

Will respond to other points later, but did I miss something? Why are we assuming four scum in the game? In a setup like this, three is normal. We get four scum if there's three scum plus a serial killer or two scumgroups of two. But how can someone know that if not a member of one of the groups?

Will wait for an explanation before switching my vote, but this looks like a genuine slip to me.

[Rishi]

What bothers me, every time I read this, is that there's no "fire" or real fist-pounding belief in this at all. Does Rishi say he is scum? No... just that the SK discussion is unhelpful. Does Rishi give his reasons for the wagon? No...just that he agrees with Bio.

Yet, he's been suspicious of RC all along? Really, there was a few questions, but I'm having a hard time seeing that suspicion throughout.

What you're talking about is playstyle. I have been known to occasionally get emotional, but that's increasingly rare. I try to play with my head and not my heart.

And my suspicion of RC was there all along. Usually, if I'm asking questions to someone, it means I'm suspicious. In any case, even if I didn't articulate my suspicion since my first post on RC, it was still there.

@Rishi: How legitimate was that attack for the case? The post in question dealt with RC posts in the first 3 pages and you said this of the early suspicions:

I can't believe people are still harping on this. I did say there wasn't that much content in the first few pages, but I didn't say there was none. Besides, RC had subsequent actions which made him more scummy, even if the initial suspicions were small.

I guess you haven't been reading too closely then. There have been multiple discussions about assuming the worst case scenario for games. In this case, the range of scum is 2-4. Mafia role PMs are written for 2-3 mafia and there is a possibility of 1 SK.

How would this be a scum slip? How would a person in either group be able to determine there are 4 scum? A sk, could only guess if there are 2-3 mafia and mafia could only guess if there was a SK. Neither group has any way of determining the possibility and more than a town player would.

First of all, if a question or comment is directed at another player, I would appreciate it if you would let that player answer before stepping in. This isn't the first time you've done this in the game, either. You have a strong possibility of tainting the answer that the player is about to give.

I didn't think we had come to any conclusion on the number of scum issue, and Rhinox was talking as if it were a certainty there. Also, it could definitely be a slip. If someone only has one scumbuddy, then it's a good possibility that there's another scumgroup out there with also two members.

Assuming 4 scum in the game (which I always do in a mini, FYI)

I always assume 4 scum in a mini, until proven otherwise. I don't assume anything about factions.

and for the record, here's the full context where you took that quote from:

In order to come to that conclusion, you would have to be 100% sure that at least

4

3 of Bio, Username, CFR, OGML, jahudo and moriarty are town, as well as assuming you are town yourself, and assuming 4 scum in the game. I find it suspicious that you are able to confirm

4

3 town players on D1, and use that information to say that the probability is 100% that at least 1 of Rishi, pops, and huntress are scum. I do agree with the points you've brought up against the three players, but I feel like its manipulative for you to say that you're 100% sure that at least 1 of them is scum.

I changed the 4's to 3's above because I realized my numbers were off. Changing the assumption from 4 scum to 3 scum only makes Spy's claim worse, because he has to be able to confirm 1 more townie, for a total of now 4 instead of 3. In other words, I was just expressing a best case scenario for Spy's claim that at least 1 of Rishi, Pops, or huntress has to scum, by showing that he would have to be 100% confident of at least 3 players being town if there are the maximum 4 scum in the game. If there are only 3 scum, then he would have to be 100% confident on 4 players being town, making his accusation even harder to believe.

Good job explaining why you wrote four instead of three in a few different ways. Nice job appending the line "which I always do in a mini, FYI" to your original quote. The fact that you felt the need to explain it so many ways makes me feel as though you're getting defensive about something. Still, your explanation is plausible (and bionnicchop2 derailed my question anyway), so I won't vote but, unlike before, IGMEOY now.

RE: The bottom half of Rhinox's 311, if Rhinox flips scum I would be willing to wager he has a partner somewhere in Rishi/Pops/Huntress.

Why is everyone just assuming that SpyreX's list is correct? To me, the list seemed somewhat arbitrary, but it seems like everyone has bought the mantra that one of us on that list is definitely scum.

As a side note, I really don't understand all this grouping going on where we are trying to determine how a player flipping as an alignment will affect our view on the rest of the game. Trying to pair people up and determine partners without knowing the alignment of anybody seems like a surefire way to spin our wheels. The alignment of a lynched player should be a small component of how others are analyzed IMO.

QFT.

3.) Rishi would definitely not be a bad call at this juncture, imo. Still would prefer pops, but.

Dude, I'm right here. Other than that one post that I voted for RC, you still haven't given any reasons for thinking I'm scum. It's like you think if you repeat that I'm scum enough that people will believe it. This is actually a fun experiment you can try in any game. You keep listing a particular player on your "scumlist" and keeping saying "This player bothers me but I'm not sure why." The player doesn't have anything concrete to defend himself against, so can't really respond to the accusations. Soon other people put the player on their scumlist and start scrutinizing the player's posts and voila! That player is lynched. At this point, I don't really think you're scum, but after this game, I think I'm going to nominate you for a title: "Confirmation Bias Poster Boy."

[Rishi]

The 4 instead of 3 was in regards to the number of players Spy would have to confirm as town, and not the number of scum. I also didn't append anything to my original quote. It was there all along. You just overlooked it.

:( I suck. You're right. I genuinely thought I spotted a slip, and thought you were then trying to cover it up.

So, never mind.

[Rishi]

I have given reasons for thinking you are scum. I will lay them out in a nice clean fashion but don't pretend that I've just said OHH RISHI you cad. You want concrete problems with your play, I'll give them.

Waiting.

Funny thing is that, normally, I'm not abrasive. I become abrasive when I'm dealing with shit like "I'm anti-game" or "a tool" or what have you.

I'm not "abrasive" with the majority of this game. Just a few of you. Wonder why that is.

Stepping outside the game for a second here, you ARE abrasive. I have played with you before. Whether you intend to do it or not, I’m not sure.

And maybe it is with me. I know I can be abrasive at times as well.

Then you don't ask questions of those who you deem town? Why not?

I don’t want to necessarily speak in absolutes, but, let’s put it this way: I ask more questions to people I think are suspicious. I ask questions to determine alignment. If I think someone is town, then I don’t feel the need to do that as much.

Not to speak for Spy, but he's also brought up your inactivity.

Yeah, but inactivity isn’t scummy. There’s a difference between being busy and being truly inactive. If I was posting as little as I was at the beginning of the game and only posting 1-2 sentence posts, then you’d have a valid argument.

[Rishi]

Responding to Jahudo’s 380:

I’m not using quotes because I think it contributes to the “wall of text” feel. So I’ll try to summarize my points as best I can. If you feel like I’m evading any part of the post, let me know and I’ll do my best to answer.

Basically, what about Rhinox’s explanation that seemed plausible was the fact that he was saying “4 scum” as a worst case scenario (which bionnicchop2 brought up) to poke holes in SpyreX’s argument. The fact that he pointed out that SpyreX’s argument got even weaker if we assumed 3 scum seemed plausible to me.

What I thought I spotted (and now I realize that I didn’t see what I thought I saw) was the fact that Rhinox knew exactly how many scum were in the game. One scumgroup of four is extremely unlikely in the game, but suppose you were in a scumgroup of two. Of course, you would speculate that there’s another scumgroup, and you would probably go into the game thinking, “Okay, there might be two scumgroups of two, so four scum.” Obviously, the scum would still write from the perspective of being town, but having a pretty clear idea that there are four scum would still color their perspective on the game. So, I thought Rhinox was saying he KNEW there were four scum, which only scum would know, not that he was assuming there were four scum. Then I thought he was getting defensive about the issue.

Even if you think someone is town, there’s never absolute certainty (in the absence of some power role or other information that tells you the truth). A genuine slip (and they do exist – in an extreme example, I once saw a player use “we” in reference to scum) is as close as you’ll get to proof that someone is scum, though.

[Rishi]

MOD: Request that the deadline is lifted to give Huntress and Rhinox a chance to see The Princess Bride? Thx.

What with all the notPosting going on, they could probably watch it now and not miss much action here. ~Vi

In other news, as we're getting closer to a lynch, those of you with votes not on one of the main wagons are really not helping us avoid a No Lynch. Just saying.

[Rishi]

Need to catch up. Post in the next 24 hours.

[Rishi]

That being said, I've become increasing more uncomfortable with RC after his last few posts. I'm still not sure if he's scum, but if a vote is needed at deadline, I'd be willing to vote him to prevent a no-lynch.

No one mentioned this. At the time you said this, RC was the only viable wagon other than your own (now the pops wagon is somewhat viable). So, obviously, you would have to switch a vote to him eventually. This sounds like you want to go "on the record" in case RC flips town. Not necessarily scummy, but it seems odd to say since your eventual vote for RC is almost inevitable.

In other news, it bothers me that RC has started going up against pops and Huntress (and implied some suspicion of me). Spyrex's list again. Interesting. It seems that he's desperate to find any wagon other than his own.

I'd say we ought to have Rishi Htress feedback before RC's claim, if we can manage. I mean, if i am going to be the lynch for the day after all, there's no sense in RC having a claim out.

Weird statement. What makes you think you're the lynch for the day?

That being said, I'm putting the farm on the pops wagon. As you can tell, I'm foregoing the claim I promised I would make, mainly because, and I agree with pops on this point, neither Huntress nor Rishi have made their positions clear like bionic, Jahudo, Spy, or CF Riot.

I'd be willing to vote for either Rhinox or pops to avoid a No Lynch, but I would strongly prefer to lynch you. I have about the same opinion on both of them - leaning town on both, but I'm not 100% convinced.

Claim, please. It feels like you're deliberately stalling.

I'm actually kind of annoyed at the fact that a great deal of the pops case seems to be from him posting riddles. Equally well if we remove those, we still have content equivalent to, say, Rishi's. The riddles themselves are a freaking null tell.

When did I become the poster boy for inactivity? You do realize that you've only made 9 posts in this game? Even if you throw in the 6 posts from your predecessor, you still have posted about as much as I have.

[Rishi]

Still here. Have to ponder the claim. Will be able to check in again before deadline. I am willing to switch my vote to avoid a No Lynch.

[Rishi]

That kill don't make no sense.

I have to recalibrate my scumdar.

Here.

I agree with OGML. I had to double-check the setup to make sure there was no vig in the game.

Unless there are two scumgroups in the game? Was that an attempt at a cross-kill?

[Rishi]

b) Scum (of either type) killed Rhinox specifically to setup the WIFOM of "why would scum kill Rhinox?" so they could push a bullshit case on someone based on a theory of why that person would kill Rhinox, and his name is popsofctown. (Yes, I am fully aware of the inherent hypocrisy of this argument.)

I totally agree that this is a possibility. I also don't like that pops seems to be backtracking on his suspicion of SpyreX. Does he really think he's wrong or is he just trying to avoid a lynch?

I thought pops was town yesterday, but he's rapidly moving up my scumlist. Have to do a read on Huntress, though.

[Rishi]

Need to catch up on this game. Will do so over the weekend.

[Rishi]

So, the weekend was really busy for me. I was barely home except to sleep. Will catch up tonight. If I can't do that, I will likely ask for a replacement (for my first time ever on Mafiascum) as I'm starting to get very busy. But I would like to stick with this game if possible.

[Rishi]

Caught up to some degree. I think, so close to the deadline, that a replacement wouldn't be the best thing for the game, so I'll try to stick it out.

The question was asked much earlier, CF, whether or not I think pops is scum. Well, I thought it was a good possibility at the time, but I'm less sure now. (The reason him backing off SpyreX to avoid a lynch is that I think that SpyreX looked a lot more town at the beginning of the day after both RC and Rhinox flipped town.) His play is inconsistent, but he seems to be playing fairly emotionally. I often see emotional play as a town-tell, since good scum play is to be calm and collected. Personally, I find it much more frustrating being accused of scum when I'm town than when I am actually scum. I know that this isn't conclusive, but pops looked like he was about to blow a gasket in a couple instances - so I'm leaning towards pops = town.

It's actually fairly common for people to change their playstyle from Day 1 to Day 2 – in Day 1, you're just groping in the dark and in Day 2, you have some information. So I don't know if I would see Jahudo's change in style as a scumtell. It is possible that, if his scumbuddy was talking to him telling him that he was too cautious that he could change. But it could just be that he's more sure of himself with more info.

On the other hand, bio seems to be drawing a lot less attention today. I don't think he deserves a vote (for reasons that SpyreX enumerated – what possible reason would he have to counterclaim RC in that situation as scum?), but it does feel like a change in playstyle. I think it's perfectly reasonable for someone to become more aggressive on Day 2, but less aggressive? Just weird.

So, I guess I'm also waiting for my top suspects to post: Huntress (SpyreX is a jerk, but beneath all his jerkiness, he does make a lot of sense – I wouldn't put it past him to kill Rhinox just to prove he was right, but more likely someone was framing him) and OGML (went after both RC and Rhinox pretty hard yesterday and has contributed almost nothing today – that in and of itself is not a scumtell, but it makes it hard to associate him with anything else).

[Rishi]

On one hand, i'm glad you don't believe me to be town. On the other hand, are you sucking up to the guy who was talking about lurker hunting?

You mean you’re glad I don’t believe you to be scum? I think SpyreX was making some good points, but where did you think I was sucking up to him? The part where I called him a jerk?

I can understand "emotional" play being a town-tell but does that really negate the issues I have brought up with his play?

No, you’ve brought up some good points, but I don’t think pops is the right lynch for today.

Not Voting: Jahudo, Moriarty147, OhGodMyLife, Rishi, popsofctown

This is, real soon, going to be not acceptable.

I’m quite willing to vote Huntress or OGML, but I want to hear from them first.

[Rishi]

Hi. I'm replacing in for OGML.

Welcome. A lot of people are waiting to hear your thoughts on this game.

[Rishi]

Hey, folks, got my prod. I don't have a lot to say about the case against me. IAUN's main point is that I don't take a strong stance on Day 1. This is pretty typical of my Day 1 play in just about every game that I play. In fact, it's a bit of a null-tell for me. I'm usually more aggressive on Day 2 and beyond, but haven't had a lot of time to play so far.

Rishi is essentially made of "Busy. Will post later. I promise." which to me has a feel of classical lurkscum tactics.

Okay. This drives me absolutely bonkers. Do you see me posting a lot in other games? What gives you the impression that I am intentionally avoiding posting rather than actually busy? And as I've pointed out before, you're not particularly active either, and yet you keep bringing up this argument.

Moriarty's waffling makes me think rishi is scum.

Huh? In any case, pops goes from pretty strongly believing that I'm town, to neutral, to scum in the span of a couple pages. In fact, in that period where he was being nice to me, I was suspecting him of buddying. I know that I believed that pops was town before, but he seems to be on tilt. Plus, the "claiming Alexander" business doesn't help him.

I would throw a vote on Trumpet of Doom or Huntress if I thought it would do any good at this point. My main point is that I can't get a read on them, which is why I've been waiting for them to post.

Vote: popsofctown

[Rishi]

Post #314: As I said at the time, Rhinox's comment was so obviously not a slip when read in context that Rishi calling it out as one looks suspicious. I think it indicates that he wasn't paying real attention to Rhinox's post, and was just looking for things that he could use to cast suspicion on him.

On Day One, it was RedCoyote, because he talked too much about theory, and not enough about finding scum. And that's the only reason he ever gave for finding anyone suspicious throughout the entire day.

Post #590: So, first of all: "The question was asked much earlier, CF, whether or not I think pops is scum. Well, I thought it was a good possibility at the time, but I'm less sure now." When was the "much earlier" question asked? I haven't been able to find it.

I already addressed Point 1. I thought it was a genuine slip. When it was pointed out to me that I had misread what Rhinox originally said, then I immediately backed off.

I've already mentioned that I tend to be a cautious player on Day 1, which is why I didn't suspect anyone besides RedCoyote. Besides a lot of players (myself included) weren't particularly active on Day 1. The thread was just dominated by a few players and I didn't find any of the main players suspicious at the time.

It had been at least a couple pages since CF asked the question that I was able to respond. It felt like "much earlier." Regardless, I fail to see how use of the phrase "much earlier" is a scumtell in any way.

Rishi's vote really seems like OMGUS to me. While i could understand him making an argument that i'm waffling on him, i dont see how it brings him all the way from thinking i'm town to thinking i'm scum.

Contrary to popular belief, not every time you vote for someone who is voting you is it OMGUS. Of the people likely to get lynched (pretty much you and me), you're most likely to be scum to me. Besides, it has been at least a couple pages since I last posted. A couple pages where you were on tilt.

I'll note that your position changed on me during a span where I hadn't posted. So it feels to me that you just jumped on the wagon after others have expressed suspicion.

I want you guys to really check out the bold here because inconsistency can be a great scumtell. Rishi's reasoning for thinking I'm town all today has been "I see AtE as a towntell and he uses AtE a lot". A very flimsy basis for a town read if you ask me. But he ought to at least be consistent. After coming out of my pessimistic mood, it seems pretty clear to me that the Alexander claim was a pretty large AtE: but now he's citing it as a scumtell. If there's anyone in this thread making questionably fast shifts in position, it's Rishi.

The "claiming Alexander" business didn't feel like an appeal to emotion. It felt like you were being evasive. And it seems to you now that claiming Alexander was an appeal to emotion? Shouldn't that have occurred to you when you were making the post? If you weren't sure what it was, how do you expect me to figure it out?

In retrospect, this looks bad. This was the only content in one of his posts, urging readers to go for either badwagon, without really caring which. What's worse is there's no other content in the post.

Wow. This is weak. How many of your early posts can we pick apart for having no content? You seem like the last person to criticize someone for not having content. And you're criticizing me for not telling people what bandwagon to jump on? All I was saying is those with singleton votes were being counterproductive. In like half my games in the face of a deadline, I can probably point to someone (and not necessarily me) saying something similar. I saw that you entered the newbie queue as an IC. You might want to rethink that decision.

Ah, my one saving grace about Rishi is that he didn't wagon Pops when he could have but now he is. On the reverse, Pops is voting Rishi and admitting it's to save himself, so it puts it back at neutral. I think Pops has been scummier.

We're a day from deadline. There's no other viable wagon. What would you expect me to do?

Rishi needs to cite and explain this part too. If he's talking about something that's AtE, then it looks like a dramatic change of opinion, and besides I don't see where he originally suspected pops of buddying. Was this day 1 or 2?

Buddying and Appeal to Emotion are not the same thing (what is it with people throwing around the "AtE" phrase suddenly as if it applies to everything?). I didn't accuse pops of buddying in the thread before. I wanted to see if he would keep doing it. He did it up until the point where I stopped posting and then started agreeing with other people. He even says in this post below yours that he'll like Huntress again if she votes for me. By the way, his reason for thinking I was town before? Because I thought he was town. If you look at pops' posts from around that time, I think it's pretty obvious.

Briefly I'm not seeing the case on Pops and am a bit suspicious of the bandwagon on him.

Thank you for summarizing what pops says about himself. Now what's your opinion?

[Rishi]

That was my opinion. Why are you trying to make out it wasn't? Is it because you want it to seem less valid?

What I’m saying is that you’re not contributing anything to the game that hasn’t already been said, which is a pattern with you. Your opinion is valid, but not particularly original.

My top suspects are Moriarty, ToD and Rishi.

First I’m hearing about Moriarty and ToD from you. Why? And what happened to Jahudo? Also, question: you were extremely aggressive and all over the place on Day 1. Today you seem to be flying under the radar. Why the sudden change in playstyle?

This man is made of straw. It has no brain, it needs to see the wizard of oz.

I gave reasons i thought your vote change was OMGUS, don't say "contrary to popular to belief not every voteback is OMGUS", because i don't believe that either.

Does that mean you’re strawmanning me? Because that’d make you the scum, eh?

So an OMGUS vote means that you think I am specifically voting for you because you’re voting for me. I don’t really see what your argument was. Could you reiterate it for me?

Underlining mine. You made that post in deadline zone. And it's not really a lack of content that bothered me, but rather that you posted just to say go for either wagon. It's admittedly weak really, townies do that, just in retrospect both wagons were scum.

Both wagons were town. You have done this many, many times in this game. What is it that is making you subconsciously flip “town” and “scum” in your mind? Is it that you’re scum and so you are having trouble adjusting your brain? Also, I didn’t say that *I* could go for either wagon, just that people needed to get on a wagon.

And you think your early posts were the only ones without content? The post you quoted from me was 415. Let’s look at your posts in reference to the Princess Bride discussion.

*rolls stone in front of cave out of the way*

You just now saw Princess Bride for the first time! Oh my gosh LOL!

*rolls stone back*

Inconceivable

wow, he does have high activity standards.

unless princess bride discussion is counting for us

Great content there.

Hey, i didn't say i'd like Huntress again, i said i'd love her again. Get it right. I'm turned on by cougars with meercat fur on the corners of their mouths.

It was struck through. I wouldn't actually change my opinion of someones alignment in exchange for their vote. It could come as a consequence, but not as a trade.

The comment was struck, but you are not allowed to edit your posts. So if you were intending to strike that comment, why didn’t you just delete it? You obviously intended us to see it.

And you are trading suspicion for votes, whether you realize it or not. Remember, you're the one who specifically said I wasn't suspicious after I refused to vote for you.

[Rishi]

Also, question: you were extremely aggressive and all over the place on Day 1. Today you seem to be flying under the radar. Why the sudden change in playstyle?

Read the thread. This is the last game I am playing and simply fulfilling my commitment to the game.

This is a legit reason, but I can't find you saying it anywhere in this thread.

Meant to respond to this also. ToD = OGML. I have definitely expressed suspicion there. I can't remember if I have explicitly stated any prior suspicion of Moriarty, but I think I may have.

You have, but it has been a while. Not since the beginning of Day 2.

If you read my early D1 reasoning for looking at 4 players specifically, it is because there is solid reason to believe one of them killed Rhinox. Jahudo is my top suspect among those. This does not mean others can't be scum, obv. and as one of my top suspects I will gladly join a wagon on you despite the non-action at night.

I guess I'm just wondering why you had a vote on someone for so long that's not even in your Top 3. Do you believe there's more than 3 scum in this game?

[Rishi]

2.

BC who did you target last night?

I think it was a mistake for me to reveal who was jailed the previous night as scum took advantage of the fact I cannot jail the same person twice and killed who I had jailed the previous night. At this time I don't think the information of who I targeted for jailing helps us find scum.

3. I am assuming a mislynch and lose situation. Best case scenario is 3 mafia (I guess 2 is truly best case) and no SK. If we are looking at 3+1 right now, then the town is no longer a true majority and winning will be quite difficult. IF we have a SK, they actually need to kill mafia now or they lose, so that benefits us slightly. If we are in a 5 vs 3 situation (and even a 4 vs 3 vs 1) I am mulling the idea of a no lynch.

On Point 2, I disagree. We know there was a kill last night and that'd give us information on who didn't send the kill.

I don't understand why an SK would have to kill Mafia to not lose. In most setups I've seen, the Mafia can't win unless the SK is dead. In any case, I think this is all academic. As Jahudo said, we can't still assume that there is only one killing group, but I'm finding it increasingly likely. Can't be 4 scum, or we've already lost. So I'm guessing it's 3 scum and lynch-or-lose.

If that's the case, No Lynch is the right play.

[Rishi]

By lynch or lose here, I assume you mean mislynch and lose. Lynch or lose means we must lynch and it must be scum. It

can

be 4 scum without town losing, but it becomes almost a prisoner's dilemma where we can't win without unintentional assistance from scum (cross kill).

I always used lynch-or-lose to mean if we lynch a pro-town player, then the scum have won. Doesn't matter, though. I'm not in the mood to argue semantics. My point still stands.

And you are correct. There can be four scum. I was talking about a single scumteam of 4 (was being semi-facetious).

Want to hear from the others, but No Lynch is looking better and better.

[Rishi]

I'm going to have to think some more about the lynch/no lynch choice although at the moment I'm favouring no lynch based on the numbers. I can see advantages to both but I haven't really thought it through yet.

Wishy-washiness, thy name is Huntress.

Is it too soon to talk about a mass claim?

Not if you're scum, but for the rest of us, yes.

[Rishi]

Sounds like most people are for this.

Vote: No Lynch

[Rishi]

Actually I don't think it's too early to talk about it if we really are in lylo, which we more or less are if we have a group of three scum, but perhaps you know otherwise? Why don't you think it's a good idea? When do you think would be a better time?

If we're talking about No Lynch (which I still think is the best option), a mass claim is a horrible idea. The scum shouldn't know where the power roles are.

[Rishi]

Looks like we're just waiting for Moriarty and Rishi.

Why are you avoiding claiming? BC said me, Moriarty or you. But you seem to deliberately be waiting for me and Moriarty to go first.

No matter. I'm vanilla as well.

Huntress, claim please.

[Rishi]

Rishi who's scum? Why?

Huntress. I think a lot of people already stated reasons - active lurking, agreeing with other people, being evasive during the claiming.

The other one is gut right now is Jahudo. I know this is probably the first time I've expressed suspicion of him, so it's pretty weak to not have a reason, but let me do a read over the next few days, and I'll give reasons.

[Rishi]

Got my prod. Will catch up once I'm over this flu.

[Rishi]

Vote: Rishi

10 days to DL. Most likely lylo. The will-post-later excuse isn't cutting it for me anymore. This goes for Moriarty and Huntress as well. That said, I will probably be LA from Friday to Monday of this week. =P I will be back before deadline though. Speaking of which,

Vi, April 17 is a Friday.

This really seems odd to me. You're acknowledging that it's lynch-or-lose, but are making, what essentially is a pressure vote to get me to post. IN LYNCH-OR-LOSE. To me, this gives me a reason to be suspicious of you, where I wasn't before. Also, the fact that no one else is piling on your vote makes me think that you and your scumbuddies are waiting to see if you can get a townie to vote for me and then pile on for the win. A quickhammer is harder to coordinate with three scum, but it can be done, especially in a game with fairly low activity like this one.

Also, some minor slips from CF which may be nothing but are certainly interesting:

Moriarty's waffling between Rishi and Pops says scum team to me. (Originally I thought Pops + Mor, now I'm thinking Rishi + Mor.)

Sounds like CF is assuming two man scumteams. Then a couple posts later:

And if it's a 3 man scum team like I think it is, they could have guessed that there wouldn't be a SK in the game so there wouldn't be a risk of the person he targeted dying (which would bust a JK claim).

Okay, three man scumteams now. Something about the "like I think it is" is bothering me, especially because about two kazillion people have brought up that it's probably one three man scumteam at this point. This strikes me as CF consciously trying to say that he has no inside information.

There's also lots of better lynches today, like Rishi.

Better lynches today? Why the emphasis on today? Hmm. You do realize that if you lynch me, the game is over and the scum have won. In LYLO, there's no such thing as "better" or "worse" lynches, I think. There's just "scum" and "not scum."

What all of this adds up to is that I don't get a sense of panic from CF in the form of "OMG! LYLO! LYLO!" that I feel like I should be getting from him. There's something about the way that CF is playing that seems to assume there's going to be another day after this one. Not sure what to make of it, but it's nagging at me. Like a two-man scumteam that CF is part of? I don't know. In lynch-or-lose, everyone tends to look like scum to me.

Point 4: Says he’s willing to switch to avoid a no lynch

I don't remember if I responded to this point when IAUN said it, but the reason I made the post was to basically say, "Hey. I'm here. I know deadline is looming, but assume that I am reading the thread and will switch if I need to." Didn't have anything else to say at that point. That was it. I thought RC was the better lynch, but considering how I had been kind of in-and-out on Day 1, I felt it was important to say that I had not forgotten about the game in the face of a deadline.

Rishi defended (in post 672) that he doesn’t typically take a strong stance Day 1, that he tends to be more cautious and that a lot of other people weren’t active. Cautious sounds like survival strategy.

Yeah, but I play that way in all my games, for better or for worse, as both town and scum. It's a null-tell at best for me.

I know I still owe you guys a read on Jahudo, but I hope this gives you all something to chew on. We have 8 days. Assuming nothing else goes horribly awry (big assumption considering how my life has been going lately), I should be around for most of those.

[Rishi]

Still here. If it weren't lylo, I probably would hammer here, but I think we can talk about it.

Of course, if no one hammers, it either means that Huntress is scum or all three on the wagon are the scum team. I find the latter extremely unlikely.

[Rishi]

There's no point in presenting a case on Huntress right now. I already gave my reasons for being suspicious of Huntress - and I'm sorry if they weren't sufficient for Jahudo. Just because I wasn't long-winded doesn't mean my case was weak.

If Huntress wasn't scum, the game would be over right now. I find a Jahudo, SpyreX and BC scum team unlikely. We really don't have a compelling reason to believe there are two scum teams.

Vote: Huntress

[Rishi]

I tend to believe both of you as town, which means Moriarty is likely the last scum (can't be a three-man scumteam or the game would be over). I think we should talk about this - I am like 90% convinced at this point that SpryeX and BC are town, but want to be at that 100% level before we lynch Moriarty.

[Rishi]

Hmm. I wonder if there are holes in Moriarty’s plan. What if the Mafia decides to send a No Kill?

For example, say if SpyreX is the remaining scum. BC jails me, SpyreX sends a No Kill. We wake up with four, and I get lynched. Game goes to night. BC, thinking that it must be Moriarty, then jails Moriarty, allowing SpyreX to kill BC for the win.

[Rishi]

I'm not sure what the use of that post is given I already said my plan had a flaw in it and I'm fine with being the lynch so long as we do a little scumhunting first.

Ok, then do some scumhunting. Don't expect others to do it for you.

And the scumhunting is only relevant if SpyreX or BC are scum, which I kind of doubt. I think we'll win once we lynch you.

[Rishi]

Vote: Moriarty

[Rishi]

Yeah, Vi, despite the fact that I had some small criticisms (which I pointed out), great job for your first time modding.

By the way, I want to say, on record, that I DO NOT lurk on purpose - I prefer to be active, but I just get very, very busy. It does kind of annoy me when people see that "lurking" as an indication of alignment. Of course, there were other points against me, which were valid.

We came very close, on the final day, to having CF submit the kill and having me protect CF. That would've set up an endgame of me, CF, Moriarty, SpyreX and BC. I still think we might have lost that though.

We really should have taken a shot at BC. The thing is that an apathetic town tends to favor scum and, after Day 1, he was barely playing, so I never really pushed for his kill. He was always on the list, but something always happened where we went in a different direction.

The funny thing is, if Jahudo had selected BC or Moriarty as his target on the night he was killed, it would've been insta-win for me and CF.

In any case, well played game by town.

[Rishi]

Hey, Jahudo, were you told that you lost your NK immunity? Just wondering.

I thought you played fairly well. CF and I started suspecting you for the other scumteam or SK fairly early on – Day 2 or 3 and, as Vi pointed out, we were 100% sure that you were the SK on Night 4.

By the way, CF, I want to just say in the thread that you were a great partner and you’re a very good player. Sorry if I screwed you up – not my best game as scum.

[Rishi]

Oh, right... reading.

[Rishi]

Was that an okay move balance-wise?

I think so. The deck is so stacked against the SK anyway.