Mini 767: Cubic Mafia (Game Over!)

[madeofphail]

Personally, I'm not truly done analysing Day one. When catching up on posts, I try to imagine facial expressions based on the wording of people's posts, I find that it helps to find panicking people under pressure. After all, you wouldn't be worried If you had nothing to hide, right?

Beyond that, since its day two, there are two things that I like to do at the start of a new day:
1). Look at who was nightkilled, and speculate why.
2). look back at the actions of the deceased and see what made them liable to be targeted.
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That being said, something is troubling me.
1). There were two nightkills. They had a little storyline behind each, so there is a clear distinguishment, beyond that we don't know who (or what for that matter) killed who. For example, we know that there is scum, after all it isn't a bastard game, so we could probably attribute a kill to them. But the second kill could be attributed to a variety of roles. I think it would be beneficial to see what role provided these kills. Reason being I'd rather lynch something scum or a serial killer rather than something like a vig.

[madeofphail]

Facts:

Oh, I'm allowed a bah post under these rules.

Very well then, I better make this count:

BAH!

hmmm... feels lacking..
oh well.

Screw it, scum won't post. I watched Magnus last night. One visitor: Isacc.

Ergo scum and all that crap:

Vote Isacc

Haha, nice. Interesting gambit. Unfortunately for you, you've been caught in the lie.

I am the town Tracker, and I tracked BB. BB targeted Magnus last night. In his words:

Quote:
Ergo scum and all that crap:


Vote: Beyond_Birthday

We Don't even know the roles, so what is to say there even is a watcher or tracker?

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Theory:

Possibilities:
1).One of these is scum covering their ass, and the other is town.
A). BB is scum trying desperately to Lynch Isacc for some reason.

B). Isacc is scum reaching for straws to defend himself. (no way to back up the fact that he is tracker, anyone could have made their argument after BB said that he targeted magnus.)
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Statements:

Quite frankly, I'm not at all happy with both players doing something like this. I'm fairly sure that at least one of them is right, and so whichever one is not fakeclaiming just gave the scum (or possibly non-town aligned killing role.) a free power role kill! Not a smart move on either person's part...

Why bring power roles into scumhunting this early? You're helping out power roles early in the game! That being said, Trumpet of doom makes a good case that BB is telling the truth because it was unprovoked claim. So Im gunna agree with you guys on this point.

Vote:Isacc

[madeofphail]

2) Well, it sure seems to be working predictably. You're all jumping on his bandwagon quite fast, doncha think? Seems like it wasn't such a crazy strategy to pull off.


1) Take a look at MadeofPhail. Starts of wanting to discuss night actions (DING DING DING) and then jumps pretty quick on this wagon.

To adress this matter, I still do not see how discussing night actions is scummy. I may be new, but when it gets down to it, the way I see it is that a night action is an action nonetheless, and thus can be used as evidence, just like any other statements or actions. If the wiki says that discussing night actions is scummy, then I have a generallised statement to apply to that: The wiki is a written, generalised statement. I have never found a written suggestion to be completely infallible. Furthermore, it is a reference piece of literature, not a manual.

As for jumping pretty quickly on the wagon: If that is your only rebuttal, then I am afraid that you are not doing a very good job. I'm not wagoning, I stated my reasons, and I think that maybe to make this clearer I will elaborate.

I think Issac is scum because my conclusions have been:
1). BB isn't lying. I'm pretty sure for a few reasons.

a). he specifically calls out a specific person, scum don't try to get a mislynch so specifically (at least not in my experience).

I).This is because they will nightkill strong players who will not be mislynched easily. After reading the flavor, it does make it clearer that magnus was the mafia kill, and this matter proves this point. Mafia don't care who gets mislynched, as long as somebody does. Mafia generally don't press incredibly hard on someone's lynch.

b). He claims in rebuttal, instead of just trying to undermine the claim of BB.
II).A pro-town power role claiming in Day 2 is really suspscious if it is unprovoked. It looks like they are just trying to gain immunity early in the game. But Isacc defend himself with a

claim

. This seems to suggest that even he aknowledges that BB is really the power role watcher, and that he scrambles to think of a semi-likely explanation to defend himself. But Isacc goes on to believe that He is scum, even though he practically aknowledged that BB is the watcher.
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But just for the sake of argument, lets present ourselves with the hypothetical situation of Isacc telling the truth. In which case I have a question:
Why would he investigate BB in the first place? What makes BB seem like a likely scum candidate worthy of being watched?

[madeofphail]

Hi KoC.

First order of business:

vote: madeofphail.

See post 400 for why. I was willing to give Phily a meta defense because I've played with him before; madeofphail has no such protection.

No meta constitutes a defense. In my personal belief, a person's play style should not be brought into a case as evidence, because someone could establish a near-invincible meta. For example empking is random and has no reasoning, and has therefore little to nothing that makes him able to be read. As such, in a game i was in, he survived to confuse the town because we were afraid to lynch him without evidence. yet, he confused and diverted us. He was a scumtool, even as a townie. Meta shouldn't be used as evidence, if you thought I was scum, you should have voted me earlier.

I apologize for the misconception, I wasn't trying to commit roleouting , what I was trying to do was something that ends up being helpful later in the game. I am trying to detect kill patterns. I suppose I should have been more direct with this when I made my statement. If we can find kill patterns (mafia or serial killer or otherwise), we can have more accurate protects if there is a doc. By discussing the kill patterns, we help the doc. and possibly force the scum to kill someone else to break the pattern, so it can also help the town to confuse the mafia by constricting their nightkills by making it seem more and more likely that certain people will be protected. This will pressure the scum. Of course, this also depends on there being a doc, or similar role.

So, this wasn't intended as role outing, (that happened anyway, which got BB blocked). I apologize with the misconception, but lets get back to scumhunting.

[madeofphail]

well, Im suspicious of Mafia SSK, after looking at his posts, he seems rather opportunistic. Not really putting much into his own words, so that seems like wagoning to me. and if we look at he Isacc lynch(who was actually scum), we see:

The probability of Isacc being scum is way higher than that of BB being scum. He's definitely the right lynch.

I think everyone should check in before we rush to end the day though. Nocmen, Seraphim - what do you think of events thus far?

QFT. Vote Issaac

so, if he is scum, then he kinda wagoned his partner. this may have been for distancing purposes, or because at that point Isacc was practically obv scum. After he votes isacc putting him at L-1, this happens:

Alright. Isacc is scum.

Vote: Isacc

Isacc then turns up scum.

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I'm not so worried about Seraphim, But I got a hunch about mafiassk. I, like seraphim, don't liek to use meta as a defense, because if that became widespread, people would establish invincible metas in order to gain lynch immunity. For example, a random player could constantly write off any slips due to "playing style". But this one-line posting and opportunism makes me nervous.

Furthermore, that doesn't help scumhunting to just agree and vote. I think that If mafiassk is scum, he joined the isacc wagon in order to distance himself.

[madeofphail]

MafiaSSK just outed himself as scum. Congrats.

Unvote
Vote: MafiaSSK

B_B, hammering obv scum is not a scumtell. Why are you acting like it is? Do you agree or disagree with SSK's vote on me?

I want madeofphail's reaction to the current events.

My take:
1). I'm, quite suprised that my suspiscions have enough pull to start this much conversation. I didn't realize I had such a pivotal role in this game.
2). The way I see it, if you claim a mod-comnfirmable role you are either caught lying, in which case it doesn't help you. or you are a confirmed townie, which would help you, until you get nk'd.

[madeofphail]

Thoughts that just occured to me
1). By doing this I am double posting, sorry for that everyone.
2). The game is still going so there is at least one scum left so far.
3). We have a claimed mod-confirmable role at L-1, this is a rare opportunity for scum to quicklynch a mod-confirmable innocence role. This brings up a few possible circumstances from my point of view:
A). If seraphim is confirmed town, the I'm positive that at least one scum was on that wagon, after all any remaining scum off the wagon couldve hammered for an easy quicklynch. That with the nightkill would bring us down to five players, with one or more scum, that could prove very dangerous. Therefore, in accordance with my original suspiscion on mafiassk, if seraphim is confirmed town, then I'm probably going to vote mafiassk for pressing to get rid of a mod-confirmable town role without waiting for what the mod has to say first.
B). If seraphim is lying than well, we can only speculate on what that means for us. But I still can't see a scum claiming a mod-confirmable role. It backs them into a corner. So if seraphim is lying he's either a bad scum, or a bad townie.

[madeofphail]

Well, that clears things up.
I am going to go ahead and

Vote:

Mafiassk

Reasons:
1). he has been seemingly opportunistic this entire game. and that makes him seem like a scum looking to start or jump on wagons.
2). he pressed hard for a lynch of a mod-confirmable role which we now know is true, without even bothering to hear what the mod has to say.

[madeofphail]

First of all, I am keeping my vote on Seraphim because he could be a role which could communicate through the mod and have the mod post whatever he wanted.

I don't see a role which could communicate through the mod.

That being said,

I still think madeofphail's the best lynch, but as second choices go, SSK seems reasonable.

If I'm the best lynch, why not vote me? it sounds like you're almost willing to vote for someone just because everyone else is....but, you don't seem to be willing to drop the hammer on what you think is a reasonable lynch.

If you were scum, I would see this as a couple of ways. You would either be fencesitting, trying to distance yourself from the vote in the case of a mislynch, or not wanting to drop the hammer on a fellow scum.

If you were town: maybe you have some sort of power role that lets you investigate, and you know ssk is a mislynch, and so don't want to hammer him.

In any case, by not wanting to hammer someone that you see as a reasonable lynch, you seem to display knowledge that the rest of us don't possess.
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As far as explaining me: I'm just going to say right now, Ive realized how that action cannot and should not be advocated. I realize I am going back on what i was saying, but I've realized a major flaw.

I was advocating that finding scum patterns can help outline whos the next kill, and thus who should be protected. But if we talk about this, we destory the pattern and that doesnt help us at all. My argument was WIFOM, and there is no way of getting around that. I am just now realizing that, and feel free to spam me with hatemail or bash me or whatever, because frankly I deserve that among counless other things. My signature aknowledges this fact.

[madeofphail]

Knights, why don't you believe that mafiassk should be lynched? you're not voting, and since there is plenty of evidence, I assume you have a reason? Please tell us your reason. Unvoting and not saying anything else seems odd to me, because that wagon that almost was seemed like a good piece of evidence to use.

Furthermore, I would like beyond birthdays take on things, although I dont expect a response quickly, as he still hasnt unvoted a confirmed townie. This leads me to believe that he hasn't been on in awhile

[madeofphail]

Seraphim, why don't you like the SSK wagon? He has substantial evidence against him, and he hasn't really provided a substantial defense(at least in my eyes.).

His defense was:

- Ignoring any accusations levelled at you, or worse, OMGUSing against them (see caf19)
- Giving absolutely no reasoning behind your votes, then when pressed claiming those votes were based on "gut" - so why didn't you just say that beforehand, pray tell?
- Bandwagon hopping as it suits you
- Using the meta defence to justify the fact you've been scummy all game.

-Caf19 wasn't an OMGUS
-Because it developed right after the game started
-Bandwagons have a purpose. The person getting lynched is usually scummy enough
-It's because it's true

On his first point, I'm not going to argue whether or not a vote was OMGUS at this point in time.

on the matter of the second point, voting is power, an using that power flippantly based on gut feeling doesnt help the town very much. It makes it so much easier for the scum to quicklynch. So, by doing this, you are being a useful tool for the scum.

On the matter of the third: Yes, bandwagons serve a purpose. They get people lynched far too quickly, such that it usually ends us being a mislynch. You argue that the person is usually scummy enough, and so they are justifiable. Of course the person has to have some dirt on them, after all, if they didn't no one would vote them.

On the matter of the Fourth point: I have stated before that Ido not support meta as a defense. If that becomes an acceptable way to defend oneself, ll sorts of havoc would be wrought on this site. We would have horrible people passing off scumtells as randomness. We would have people saying that wagoning is just their style (as in your case), and so you can't build a case agains them. Or a person could refuse to play in games that they were scum in, and the after about 10 games or so, they could actually be scum, and use their meta to be unlynchable. Meta doesnt serve much of a purpose in a game.

In the game, you look at what has been posted in the game that makes a person's role in the game to be more apparent. It wouldn't make any sense to look at my first game and use a post from there to say that I am scummy here. Games are seperate, and evidence used in each game should also be seperate. In short, I am one who disdains the use of meta as a defense.

I still like the idea of Lynching mafiassk, at least until someone scummier shows up on the radar.

[madeofphail]

Role speculation much? This sounds like he's saying I might be a cop if I'm town. Bad madeofphail. And what's even worse is that earlier, in 420, he says about his D2 play that he "wasn't trying to commit roleouting." Well, he was in 468.

I am roleouting, in a fashion. If scum counts as a role. I apologize for not making this clearer as I am not helping by remaining this vague.

by suggesting that you have info that we don't I was suggesting that you have a power that some of us don't. If you're town that would be role outing. But you could just as easily be scum in my eyes. If you were scum, it would only be natural for you to know who's townie and who's not.

Furthermore, a role out would only help find scum at this point because it seems to me like all of the town power roles have already been outed. After all, this is a normal setup, and we have a claimed watcher, a confirmed one-shot vig (dead), a confirmed mod-confirmable townie (dead). The only players with extra info are scum. I think that you seemed like you had outside info, and so I had a good reason to suspect that you were scum.

I apologize for not presenting my theory in a more organized manner. Obviously I am not helping anyone by remaining vague,so I would be happy to answer any more questions.

[madeofphail]

Ah, what the hell, it can't hurt:

Are you scum?
If not, who do you think is scum and why?
Whom would you like to see lynched today?
Whom would you like to start the massclaim?

1). even if I said I wasn't what would make you inclined to believe me? even if I was scum, what would I be suppossed to say? "ok, I'm scum, you got me?". that question won't yield any helpful clues, why bother asking that?
2).on who is scum, although I agree that KoC has been acting oddly, but I want to see what he makes of today before any votes are placed, because as caf stated we could be at lylo right now, and voting wantonly could provide a very bad result. I would suggest unvoting, because if there are two scum then with one vote on someone on a three to lynch day means that as soon as one person votes a townie, the suppossed two scum could jump on and quicklynch for win.3). I'm not sure who I want lynched yet b/c I don't havce a very strong case on anyone.
4). When did I state that I would like a massclaim? Like I stated before, I think that we've had all the pro-town power roles outed, so there are probably just vanillas and scum left, and obviously scum arent going to claim scum, they're probably going to claim vanilla, and not stick their necks out. a massclaim probably won't help much.
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Just to state what little I do think (as it should be quite obvious by now that I'm not very intelligent).

There are five people alive with three to lynch. We do not know for certain if there is two scum. The people alive are as follows: caf, trumpet of doom, beyond birthday, Koc, and of course, me.

Beyond birthday is assumed town ever since he claimed watcher d2 which got us able to lynch our first scum, Isacc. however, D3 he stated:

Doesn't matter, I was role blocked making my ability utterly useless until we target the role blocker with our lynch or he finds someone more worthy of his prevention skills.

then today:

I've got nothing

Which I'm assuming means that he was roleblocked again?

[madeofphail]

I do not object to a massclaim.

[madeofphail]

VT, so that leaves B_B, but he already claimed, so what now?

[madeofphail]

Alright, before we get any lynching I'm just going to put an idea out here. This idea is probably wrong, but what the hell, saying something isnt going to hurt anyone.

Why not instead of saying lynch the scummiest person, how about we do process of elimination? By which I mean that generally it is alot easier to frame someone than to say, prove them innocent. Why don't we make it abundantly clear who the scum are so that we can get it riht, we are at lylo aftyer all. And if KOC is really scum, then this should make it obvious enough so that we can get this lynch moving forward.

Bash me for being cautious, but the only other time I survived to lylo I ended up playing poorly and screwed over the town. I refuse to let my actions be repeated, as such I want to be very careful with my votes.

[madeofphail]

My top suspects as of now are:
1). KOC (he hardly has any evidence to the contrary)
2). Trumpet of Doom. Trumpet. seemed to be very laid back in the first couple days of the game and only now has started to say alot in his posts. I know I have been not very active in my posting, and for that I apologize. But when I posted earlier in the game, I said at least a good deal to work with. Trumpet didn't seem to have much substance in the beginning, but now hes very active. I'm not sure the reason why this is, but it makes me wary.