Mini 1084: The New Jersey Shore (Game Over)

[Fishythefish]

Reading. Won't take long.

unvote

[Fishythefish]

What a nice easy game to replace into.

TMH is almost certainly town. This is simply not a scummove. Because eventually the question "where's your kill?" becomes rather awkward.

Given that, what are the odds that CC is scum? An average game has about the same number of mafia roleblockers and godfathers in it. A godfather and a roleblocker each have a 1/(no. of players) chance of causing a missed kill. So, if you don't die when shot, and no town PR pipes up to mention that that might be their fault, 50% chance you're a godfather, 50% the vig got blocked. Plus a few points for the odd mafia doctor, I suppose. At any rate, your odds of being scum are approximately 0.5+0.5*(normal odds of being scum). Those are what I call extremely good odds, and there's nothing in these 10 pages with any chance of overriding that.

Have to say, that's rather shot my case to hell. Because I had all sorts of reasons why TMH's play on the hanzo wagon makes him scum. But it turns out he isn't. I'll wait until the CC flip to go back over things looking for new reads.

vote: CC

L-1.

Time for a claim.

[Fishythefish]

Shit shit sorry sorry. Thought Llama was unvoting CC. That's a lynch, I'm an idiot.

[Fishythefish]

Why?

[Fishythefish]

@mod

: Poor access for the next 48 hours.

Expect content after that.

[Fishythefish]

Re: thinking Llamarble was unvoting CC - here was his unvote post:

I don't like 2 short days in a row. More content helps us get better reads and thus is pro-town.

We have time; let's let fishy do a catch up post and hear a roleclaim from carrot beyond "not NK immune."

We can also talk about who we think scumbuddies for CC or TMH depending on CC's flip are.
We've mostly talked out the possibilities here and I do think Carrot is the right lynch, so you can expect me to hammer eventually.
TMH being scum is the main alternate possibility, but Carrot's flip will give us a lot of information about that.
If carrot flips town and nobody claims to have interfered with TMH's shot, TMH is likely (chance of a scumPR interfering is ~1/8) to be scum and thus we should lynch him.
If we got unlucky, then I guess we lose, but we can't lynch everyone.
If carrot flips scum, TMH is pretty much cleared.

Unvote

I honestly can't remember with 100% certainty, but I

think

the bolded, plus the emphasis on CC, made me think that he was taking CC away from L-1 while I caught up.

@Guderian: about my reaction seeming "ingenuine": any reason for this? Saying I said 'opps did I hammer lol jk!' is a total misrepresentation of my post. I've explained why I made my mistake; I thought Llamarble had unvoted. If you don't think that's a credible mistake to make, there's little I can say to convince you, but I don't think there are good reasons for that.

A question, though: suppose I was scum (of any variety).

Why

would I want to quickhammer someone who was almost certainly going to be lynched anyway? "Not caring whether I hammered" is ridiculous reasoning - as any scum role, I'd want to stay under the radar. Quickhammering deliberately just isn't a move that adds up in that situation.

Interesting claim from TMH. Thinking about the implications of this + 2 kills. Three kills in a 12 player game isn't exactly common, but then nor is anything else that could cause that.

Proper analysis of that, plus other things that aren't about me, tomorrow.

[Fishythefish]

So, what fits here? I’m going to assume there aren’t town-sided PRs with an undeclared hand in this. If there are, they really need to speak up.

- TMH vig, there is a SK
In this case, we are missing two kills from N1. The scum/SK could have crosskilled on CN, or chkflip could have blocked one of those kills, or something altogether different could have happened. At any rate, in this case either TMH was roleblocked by scum N1 and N2 (which doesn’t point to any alignment for Mr Wright), or scum have a doctor who protected CC and MW (which makes MW scum). Other scenarios are just about possible, but less likely because they rely on the N1 and N2 failures of TMH’s kills being coincidental.

- TMH vig, no SK
In this case, the scum must have a driver, or else we couldn’t have had those kills N2. They almost certainly don’t have a roleblocker – or they’d have blocked TMH N2. This points pretty well to MW scum – a driver would generally bus a scum with a townie.

- TMH SK, no vig
Doesn't seem to explain anything particularly well.

Nothing really new there, just going through things for myself. It’s likely enough that MW is scum that I’m ready for his claim.

@Guderian: any response to what I had to say about your attack on me?

I still have suspicions on Jase, (now Mr Fish) though. Its possible you hammered to end the day and cut off the flow to information, but disguised it as an oops hammer.

The flow of information was hardly torrential, and there was a pretty certain lynch lined up. Doesn't seem like something scum would actually do.

[Fishythefish]

Fishy:

@Guderian: about my reaction seeming "ingenuine": any reason for this? Saying I said 'opps did I hammer lol jk!' is a total misrepresentation of my post. I've explained why I made my mistake; I thought Llamarble had unvoted. If you don't think that's a credible mistake to make

No, I dont think thats a credible mistake to make. Reading the game is essential to town, not essential to you who just wants a lynch (whatever you are, the SK or mafia.)

Have you never seen a town player accidentally hammer?

[Fishythefish]

Fishythefish: Scum

Fishythefish is my prime scum suspect at the moment.
Post 243 is very shaky. Quickhammers are always suspicious, and this one is no exception. In my first post, I asked Fishythefish two questions, of which only the second was important: Why did you put Carrotcake at L-1? He did not answer.
The problem here is that there was absolutely no reason to put Carrotcake at L-1. The town had already agreed on a Carrotcake lynch, the pressure was on. Putting Carrotcake on L-1 could only have one consequence: A scum quickhammering to limit discussion even further. Carrotcake was doomed anyway, so why give town the chance to talk all they want? My theory is that Fishythefish intended to hammer for the reason I just described.
Could it really be just a mistake? That's a possibility, though a hard to believe one. Our moderator had posted the votecount just three posts earlier. When questioned about why Fishythefish thought Llamarble's vote was on Carrotcake, he is vague and makes a guess about what makes him think that. It appears to me that if you discover you just made a

huge

mistake, and post 'I am an idiot' just two minutes after it, you know quite clearly what you did wrong.

Missed that second question (well, actually I saw it and then forgot to answer it). It's explained in my (turned out to be) hammer post. I was ready for a Carrotcake claim and lynch.

Again, stifling discussion would be a move that just wouldn't be worth it for scum in that position.

It's difficult to remember exactly what was going through your mind a week ago. I think it's fairly obviously not true that just because you make a mistake you can remember exactly the chain of thought that led you to make it. I remember that Llamarble's post made me think he was unvoting Carrotcake; asking why I thought

that

is asking me to recall what was going on in my head pretty precisely at a time when I clearly wasn't thinking that hard (since I made the mistake).

@TMH: can you kill yourself at night?

[Fishythefish]

@TMH: I'm not asking you to try. Please ask the mod, though.

[Fishythefish]

Do you see it? Bus Drivers are not allowed. Redirectors are not allowed.

Night action redirection is not allowed

.

This is a very good point. When did these rules come into effect (I believe it was recently - may be touch and go if it affects this game)?

@TMH: pretty sure these rules are firm.

Still, I really can't see why hypothetical SK-TMH would be lying about last night's target. It's not like he was in any danger of being lynched. I'd guess TMH is still a vig, and there is a SK somewhere else.

This doesn't affect my read on MW significantly.

[Fishythefish]

In fact,

@mod:

were you bound by the new Mini Normal rules in creating this setup?

Also, in order to ensure that normal games stay "normal," we require that set-ups be evaluated for balance and flavor.

[Fishythefish]

So, no bus drivers then (my question was actually a chronological one - were the rules in force when this got reviewed - but that answers that).

I'm ready for an MW lynch. His scumpoints from not being killed again outweigh anything else in the game by some margin.

@MW:

Claim in your next post, or I will hammer you.

[Fishythefish]

The majority of the players have asked for a long day to actually have discussion as opposed to earlier days. Discussion is the most important weapon of the town. Yet here you two are, expressing your willingness to hammer after a mere four days. If you want to lynch me, I can't stop you. But why deprive the town of another day of discussion? Fishythefish, you have complimented me on my 'no bus driver' find, yet you seem to want me dead as soon as possible. Why is that?

I really don't see any reason to delay the claim beyond the point where I'm sure who I want to lynch. Discussion when a lynch is obviously lined up tends not to be that interesting. I think your arguments that TMH is the SK are wrong (although a new one you bring up is interesting - see below), and I'm sure I want to lynch you today. If other people on your wagon aren't ready for the lynch, they shouldn't be on your wagon at L-1 with people saying they want a claim.

- Themanhimself has claimed vigilante, but there is zero proof of this. He has found scum, but this does not prove anything about his alignment. A serial killer wants the mafia dead, too. The only thing we know is that Themanhimself has a kill power.
- A setup with a town vigilante and a town roleblocker against one anti-town faction is highly unlikely, The town could stop the mafiakill and have a kill of its own instead.
- A setup with a town vigilante, a serial killer and the mafia is highly unlikely. Not only is a twelve player game with three killers extremely swingy, but Themanhimself would also have had to survive Night 2 despite having his vigilante role known to two killers.
- There is only one remaining possibility: We are in a setup with a serial killer and the mafia.
- Themanshimself claimed he killed me Night two, but I didn't die, there were two kills tonight, and redirectors are not possible.
- Conclusion 1: Themanhimself is the serial killer.
- Conclusion 2: I was not targeted by a kill tonight. I didn't 'survive' anything.

Town. You have to make a choice.

It is my word against that of Themanhimself. Only one of us can speak the truth.
Themanhimself gives you a nice gift: A dead mafia goon. I give you my theory: An airtight case based on logic.

Make your choice.

Not sure either way about the unlikeliness of the setup. I'd guess 3 killing roles is rare, but not completely unheard of (the possibility of that is why your case isn't "airtight"). TMH surviving night 2

is

odd, and that's an aspect I haven't been thinking about.

Suppose TMH is SK. Can you explain why he'd do what he's done? On day 2, he outed himself as a killing role, which has the potential to draw counterclaims, kills, roleblocks, investigations (particularly if wrong about CC), not to mention lynches after the scumteam is gone. On day 3, he made an unnecessary claim that he targeted you, when he was in zero danger of a lynch. It might well become clear that he was lying. Why not sit back and enjoy the ride, with the town thinking it's up against only a scumteam?

It comes down to this: is it more likely that the mod would put three killers into a game, or that TMH would be playing this ridiculous strategy as SK? I think the first is much more likely.

[Fishythefish]

At this point, I have to eat my words - it seems extremely likely that TMH is a SK. Vig + 1-shot vig + roleblocker doesn't sound like a real set of town power roles, particularly as there is probably only one scum left (if there are 2, we are most likely dead anyway). I can't see what good a lynch will do us in this situation - kill one scum and the other wins. I say we no lynch.

[Fishythefish]

I'll VOTE: No lynch as well. No likely situation here makes lynching right, and frankly the less said today the better - don't want to tell the scumbags what to do.

[Fishythefish]

Here's the scum QT. I think the only biggish decision we made was not blocking TMH on N3. That got us down to a winning endgame, a Guderian kill seemed likely, and we wanted to block the real SK (turned out we were wrong there).

I'm guessing IS wasn't claiming because he thought CC was a better lynch than TMH, and perhaps that the town needed crosskills. Personally, I think I'd have done the same but then shot CC with the 1-shot.

Cop had an unlucky time of dead targets.

What immunities did the SK have?

Thanks to SB for modding and to everyone for playing.

[Fishythefish]

Didn't realise I was hammering . And he was doomed.

I think the setup was swingy but fair. To get away without any crosskills was kind of lucky. I felt TMH's claim helped the scum a lot. Better to keep your head down there, I think (or try to draw a cop investigation, but I don't really know how to do that without drawing a lynch).