Mini 1091 Mafia Mania -- Game Over

[brokenscraps]

Just confirming that I'm here, reading over the thread now, will post my thoughts after I'm done.

[brokenscraps]

Okay, these are just the unordered thoughts I have after reading through the thread...

I didn't really find moose scummy in that their posting could very easily (and I think likely does) come from a town player who often slips into poor play. The main reason I feel he can feel/be anti-town is that his posts are so chaotic at times that is almost impossible to try and work out what sort of thought processes and motivations are behind them, which isn't exactly helpful when working out motivations for actions is one of the main aspects of scumhunting.

moose: please fully claim, your non-specific power role claim doesn't really help anyone right now, one of the main reason I can think to not fully claim is that you haven't got a decent lie; if you are telling the truth about your PR it isn't a good look, you already look bad enough from claiming when you probably shouldn't have.

I've noticed some players seem to want moose dead as a policy lynch; I don't think this'd be a very good idea, firstly I don't think he is as malicious as the targets of policy lynches tend to have to be and is not as big a threat to the town (he is, I think, also capable of much better play than currently shown), secondly I don't think we would gain nearly as much information from a moose lynch than we would from some other lynches, more on this later. (Also there is the whole power role claim, but I'm going to wait for more to go on here)

Some things made Hiraki look fairly anti-town as I read through the thread: the weird opinions expressed on lots of pretty pointless seeming, often theoretical, bits of the game (RVS, pressure, FoS), the relative lack of cohesive cases against players considering his expression of so many strong opinions on presently irrelevant topics, and the constant introduction of relativity into his posts ("that might be true for you, but it isn't true for me"; generally your use of this pretty silly, a lot less of these things are as relative as you seem to think they are). Would be interested to know if other players consider this more poor town play or scummy play, I'm having a hard time working out.

I'm liking the beefster wagon at the moment, I think I'll leave my predecessor's vote there for now. The way he targeted boberz really rubbed me the wrong way, don't think he has contributed much to the town, and there are some interesting relationship between beefster and some other players that I've noticed which could be very revealing depending on how he flips, will look into in these (and hopefully other) relationships in more detail after a nice sleep, I feel thats an aspect that hasn't been looked into as much this game.

[brokenscraps]

There's no need for him to claim at this point. He's softclaimed a power role and that's enough. I just want him to stop his "I hate having a power role" crap. If he hates it so bad, why doesn't he replace out instead of screwing with the game?

This reads to me as buddying. Also, why do you care so much that he claims? You don't think he's scummy; there is no good reason for him to claim.

I'm just going to really hope moose isn't a vanilla townie making a fakeclaim or that he isn't exaggerating his PR's significance, as I read in this thread that he showed regret for doing this in another game.

If he is really a town power role the scum already know that he isn't a scum player, that he is the only claimed power role and that his power role is apparently very useful to the town. The exact details of his power aren't too important, already they know he would be a good target for killing off.

If he is scum making a fakeclaim, however, then we are losing a lot of potentially useful information that denies us the opportunity to scrutinize and test his claims. Being able to just claim PR makes it too easy for scum.

So if he is town we won't lose anything from a full claim, and if he is scum his claim will be much easier to check, so I think that now that a soft claim has been made there is good reason for a full one.

You've changed your mind very quickly as well:

Just let me do my thing for one night and if I am alive you lynch me fast. No argument from me.

Cut the crap. What are you hiding?

Right here you seem to call for more claiming from moose. Whatever opinions suits the lynch you're looking for, eh?

This looks like an excuse to fencesit for a while. What do

you

think?

Fair enough. It comes off to me much more as always playing that way both judging from a quick glance at his previous games and the general read I get of his motivations this game, so more as anti-town than scummy. Now using previous bad play to justify current bad play creates a general site meta of encouraging bad play, so I don't think it's good to use this to clear him, and if boberz and anyone else in favor of a Hiraki lynch can provide a stronger case (mainly who do you think his scum partners are?) then I would be paying much more attention.

Are there any other accusations you'd like to bring to the table?

While reading the thread it seemed like there was some time of connection between you and Mariyta, I would see this as a possible scum team.

I found Mariyta's vote on boberz fairly odd. Same post she seems to want to put a vote on moose but doesn't because that would put him at l-2 (it would actually put him at l-3, but that is neither here nor there); I don't think a quick lynch was a reasonable threat here, and if you really thought he was the scummiest why wouldn't you want to vote him? Later in the game you would write:

Why should I vote the person I feel is the lesser scum just because he has the wagon?

Why should you vote for someone you consider the lesser scum just because they don't have a wagon? Trying to get votes on somebody else would only distract from moose. The overreacting charge seems a very weak reason for voting for boberz here.

So I found this vote odd straight away, and it really set alarm bells off when beefster, with his first actual game post, voted for boberz with almost the exact same reason (switching from overreacting to Hiraki to overdefensive to Hiraki). Of course it seems odd that scum would play together like this, but there doesn't seem to be any intention from beefsters of creating a connection between him and Mariyta shown in the post, just a mutual attempt to start a boberz bandwagon for fairly weak (and similar) reasons.

Mariyta's later posts show some signs of too strong attempt to separate herself from beefster:

-Her post fourth post is fairly odd: boberz has made both one of the scummiest comments and isn't very scummy, and the attacks on boberz by beefster are ridiculous despite her being the source of the attacks main argument (overreaction/defense) and maintaining that the overreaction is one of the scummiest things so far. She then claims beefster as her second scum pick despite not really providing a case against him, although she doesn't place a vote on him (2nd scum pick seems a pretty easy way to bus without much consequence). The case against LC is also pretty weak, seeing as a large number of players had been fairly inactive at that time and she doesn't provide much to differentiate him from them. The lack of posts is perhaps suspicious, but to have that alone as your reasoning for top scum pick?

-Her vote on beefster has been provided with little reason; yes he was her second scum pick, but could we get some of the reasons why? The ones given don't seem very strong. It only places him as l-4, so I could see it as bussing; I could also see it as an unfortunate (for her) combination of her previous placing of beefster as a second scum pick for bussing purposes and the common procedure of cleaning the slate a little for replacements.

@beefster: mind outlining the case against me?

[brokenscraps]

Your argument looks awfully inconclusive. How 'bout a one word answer? (anti-town?, scummy?, neutral?)

Anti-town, but if there was a stronger case on Hiraki it would be a sign of scumminess. If, for example, his replacement act in an anti-town that would definitely be worth looking into.

[brokenscraps]

In conclusion. Town this game have been utter crap.

It is obvious from how the wagons sped up that moose is not scum. Too many people wanted him off for policy or near policy reasons. I still think a vig should hit him if only to teach him a lesson.

Hiraki is obv scum. He was one of only two valid wagons at one point and nobody joined the wagon. Obv scum. Whether or not you liked the case, it really is obvious.

Maryta is probably hiraki's partner. He is also a terribad player. Need to see a hiraki flip first.

Beefster could be third, if not AntB.

unvote vote hiraki's replacement

Guys you really need to run with this.

If you're thinking that Mariyta and Beefster are scum, couldn't that raise suspicions about moose, considering neither wanted to lynch him and both have ignored the whole wagon more than most people? Until moose's alignment is confirmed it all seems like fairly vague speculation. If moose is town it would raises suspicions on AntB, if he was scum it would raise suspicions on Beefster and Mariyta.

Also, just because nobody switched to a Hiraki doesn't condemn him, scum could also just have not wanted to switch from what they saw as a more viable wagon, or they may not have wanted to appear to be vote jumping.

You are going to die tonight.

Please explain.

Everyone says that I am scum.
Why?
Generally people should not be judged by their predecessors actions.

In post #247 I said that, considering Hiraki's play this game, his replacement acting scummy would be worth looking into.

This would be an example of you acting scummy. If you are town, then you should be showing this by contributing to the town, not trying to get a free ride for being a replacement.

FoS: werewolf

I wonder if you've inherited Hiraki's hate of FoS.

[brokenscraps]

You are going to die tonight.

Please explain.

I am going to kill him.

But why? What are you doing this for? Why are you posting these things? Why do you expect to live after posting these things?

[brokenscraps]

@Moose
One last chance to do something pro-town. saying your vig and going after boberz needs a serious come-back now.

I think either boberz or substrike is scum. I decided in my head boberz is scum. I am going to kill him unless new info pops up.

Could you provide a case?

[brokenscraps]

Moose, don't be so hasty all the time, wait five minutes after completing every post and think "would this help the town, or will it increase my chances of getting lynched", a one-shot vig is extremely useful in a game with even numbers but you're kind of destroying your chances of living to night 1, if you really find this game too hostile to play then angered requests to the mod probably aren't the best plan, and if you find it that bad then you can always replace out.

[brokenscraps]

I am not comfortable letting Moose shoot Boberz, the mod has made it clear that we're not getting a replacement or a mod kill, so my vote's staying where it is, and I implore others to join.

Okay, here are some tables representing what happens in various situations if we lynch/mislynch, moving to the right represents a mislynch, moving down represents lynching scum. The big number is the total number of players, the smaller number is the number of scum (I'm assuming three mafia). Town means a town victory, scum means a scum victory. I'm assuming here that the mafia lynch one town player every night.

1: No vig kill
12/3.10/3.8/3.scum
10/2.8/2..6/2.scum
8/1..6/1..4/1.scum
town.town.town

2: Vig mis-kill first night
12/3.9/3..7/3.scum
9/2..7/2..5/2.scum
7/1..5/1..3/1.scum
town.town.town

3: Vig scum-kill first night
12/3.9/2..7/2..5/2.scum
9/1..7/1..5/1..3/1.scum
town.town.town.town

Now this ignores power roles, so in reality a vig mis-kill could much more greatly harm our present chances of winning, but if moose is a one-shot vig (I'm assuming he is) the town practically gets one free kill without cutting back the numbers of chances we get to lynch scum. So I think we should definitely keep moose around for one night.

Tell me if I made any mistakes with the numbers.

[brokenscraps]

Yes? But why are you asking me that? You've basically stated you're a 1 shot vig, and I treated you as such in my post. What exactly are you asking?

[brokenscraps]

So I think we should definitely keep moose around for one night.

Well you might be rubbishing about your role, but if you are a one-shot vig your kill is valuable enough that even if you're just slaying or at random or are lying I think it would be worth taking taking that risk. We'll find out soon enough (day 2) if you're telling the truth or not, and can deal with you if you're lying then. And, even if players want to lynch you, it would be better to do so tomorrow than today.

[brokenscraps]

Well it looks like the town doesn't have the power to tell moose who to kill, but I don't like that plan even if it did work, it is fairly apparent that any mafia could more easily mess with things if they knew who the target was.

I know I'm not going to be able to be very active over Christmas, and indications have been that others are in a similar situation, so I think we should start working towards a lynch. I'm still fairly happy with the beefster lynch, if I can I'll look more deeply into others though.

To those not voting on the moose and beefster wagons: are you still pushing for a lynch today on those you're voting for? Would you switch to one of those two?

[brokenscraps]

@Beefster
Show me where I actually state in plain english that I buy the Moose Vig Claim. I say that using moose to secure a double lynch is a good idea and if he is as he claims he would be fine, if not he would be quickly outed. I don't want him hanging around by LyLo because so far, he has been of little if any use to town so I believe he would help the mafia win in a LyLo situation.

This wagon you have against me is based on evidene you have altered to your needs, I believe you are scum based on that and your attempts to push it as hard as possible agaisnt me without anything solid are just plain scum.

Moose lynch isn't happening so we will see how that plays out over N1/D2.
UNVOTE: Moose200x
VOTE: Beefster to ensure we have a lynch. Beefster is now at L-2.

Wait on...
moose isn't happening,
therefore Beefster
without any discussion of the werewolf wagon?

What happened to "I'm for Moose or Werewolf mainly" (post #367)?

Please give us some info if you're gonna change your mind over a few posts.

[brokenscraps]

I don't see the case on werewolf. Is it based off Hiraki's play? If so, I don't see that case, either.

I think lack of town play can be just as bad as scummy play, and Hiraki was full of this. Go back and look at his posts. Not an enjoyable experience, being walls of largely unneeded clarifications, theory discussions (about FoS and random voting, hardly could they be more irrelevant to finding scum) and nitpicking. But amongst all this clogging is barely any actual scumhunting or case making.

And werewolf has so far not redeemed him: largely pointless PBPA of beefster, outrage at players refusal to dismiss everything that Hiraki did and weak cases on boberz & dekes.

That is, I gather, the main case.

[brokenscraps]

@mod: I will be on V/LA for around the next 2 to 3 days

while moose doesnt reek of scum at this point

If you don't think moose is scum, wouldn't you prefer to lynch somebody else? Even if moose kills boberz and boberz turns out to be town, I'd still rather have one dead scum tomorrow than no dead scum.

[brokenscraps]

Damned, well go town.

[brokenscraps]

So why'd I draw the nightkill?