Mini 1105: A Mafia Invasion! (Game Over)

[Rain]

Hey guys. Reading the thread at the moment.

[Rain]

Unvote
Vote: Jerbs

Back in post 74, Jerbs votes for RossWilliam while FoS'ing RobCapone. RossWilliam was already under the spotlight in his exchange with Vigilante Ventriloquist, and RobCapone just called on for lurking.

In post 187, Jerbs votes for Dizzle, seemingly for lurking.

In both two instances, Jerbs only provided a vague agreement with whatever was posted against his targets and clever rhetoric, adding no new nor relevant information. I see opportunistic voting.

Furthermore, this below:

@Ross

Are you sure? Cause if you happen to be lying, then you pretty much are scum

looks very much like scare tactics.

And no, I am not able to figure out what Mute was trying to do.

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Other people I'm willing to lynch:
- Ellibereth. I do not like voting for NL in RVS. "Whyyyy meeeeeeeeeeeeeee" sounds very much like "lol its gunna b funny n shitz so ppl wont tink im scum". Also, his sole reasoning behind is latest Dizzle vote is entirely wifom.

- VP Baltar. No substantial reasoning behind this. Mostly gut.

- Zachrulez. 'Cause I can. Also, who uses CST? It's EST all the way.

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I would be really disappointed in a D1 Agar, Tasky or RobCapone lynch.

[Rain]

@AGar
I had considered putting Tasky in my list of people I'm willing to lynch today. However, his current play style is in line with my brief experience with him as well as his town mini normals. I read stronger scum vibes from Jerbs, and Tasky's voting for Jerbs... so... yeah.

[Rain]

I would have to agree with

Jerbs' post about Dizzle doesn't really take "town making a mistake" into account.

The time difference between RossW's "I saw him online 2 days ago" and Dizzle's last post is about a day, which is well within human error. Also, it seems like a dumb gambit for scum to make. If he's scummy for any reason, this should not be it.

I don't see much problem with AGar at the moment. The worst of his actions right now seems to be deflecting the Jerbs bandwagon, which is only a problem if (when?) Jerbs flip scum.

[Rain]

I lied. I would now support an AGar lynch, but would still rather see Jerbs dead by tonight.

Not only do AGar's arguments against RossW seem unconvincing, it feels as if he's taking something minor to exaggerate it beyond reason.

[Rain]

I think it's much likelier that we have a day-vigilante.

[Rain]

I call BS on Jerbs' cop claim. Lynch please.

[Rain]

Dizzle's slot is shadier and shadier. Zdenek comes in to vote for Jerbs' counter-wagon, which failed. Also, Zdenek's case against LlamaGod is riddled with speculations. (yes, it could have been bussing. or it might be legit accusations. yes, it it could be possible in-game communication. or it might simply be because Jerbs was at L-1. Confirmation bias?)

Vote: Zdenek

[Rain]

This^ is pure illogic. Nothing you have said or done in this game has helped town at all. Most of your reads are purely gut feeling. It doesn't help that you thought AGar was scum and Jerbs was town, again, for no reason other than gut.

Unvote.
Vote: Ellibereth

[Rain]

@LlamaGod
I'm intrigued as to why you put VV and Empking/Guderian in your town list. If it's true they look town, it's only in comparison to others. Much of what they have done so far is not revealing.

By the way, lynch Ellibereth imo. If he turns out to be scum, it pretty much guarantees RossTown.

[Rain]

Dizzle looked scummy. Zdenek was kinda iffy, but now demonstrated a fair level of scumhunting. I don't think I'll vote for him today, will reconsider lynching him after Ellibereth fiips.

In the event that Zdenek flips town today, LlamaGod and Empking ought to be looked at. Zdenek's point (the similarities in their opinion) is undeniable. I'd say they're either both town, or both scum. Currently, I find the former likelier.

@Vigilante Ventriloquist
Not distancing myself from Rob. He's in fact one of my town reads, I have no need to vote for him.

You call it buzzword, I call it correct terminology.

@MOD

I think a vote count is in order please.

[Rain]

moar ellibereth votes imo

[Rain]

@Rob
No. Scummy or not, Pappums post constructive statements whereas Ellibereth posts things for the sake of posting things.

[Rain]

I would not depend on day vigs. We don't know if it's only one-shot, and I don't want vig to claim. We should act as if it didn't exist (or rather, yesterday was a one-shot vig). Something about hoping for the best while expecting the worst.

[Rain]

I'm at school at the moment, so this will be a TL;DR. I will expand on this later tonight.

I have reasons to believe VV/LL is probably not scum.

Initially, Tasky had struck me as town simply because I played a game with hom before and the posting style was similar. I must agree though that a dead townie is better than a bad townie.

Since there's no counter claim, I'm inclined to believe Pappums.

Llama and Rob are obvTown.

Y U NO LYNCH ELLI?

[Rain]

I've had time to think the VV/LL thing through. It's actually quite a weak reasoning. Also, even in the best case, exposing the reason might help scum. Thus, I'd rather not talk about it right now, maybe D3.

I find it useless to try to determine whether we have a day-SK or day-vig. In both cases, finding scum is of a higher priority. In the unlikely event we have a day-SK, we can take care of that later.

So we have to buy a scum double bus ANYWAY to buy Elli as the scum.

Not quite true. Elli considered Jerbs to be town.

In retrospect, I doubt Elli-scum would bus Zdenek that quickly, after Jerbs got lynched.

*le sigh*

Unvote
Vote: Tasky

[Rain]

Well, to be fair, I never really FOS'd anyone.

Tasky was my second runner-up vote.

Wait, scratch that. I just had an idea.

Working on the assumption that bussing Zdenek would be a bad idea given Jerbs' lynch, VV/LL isn't a bad choice for today's lynch. Everyone else either voted for him or felt strongly about Zdenek.

Unvote.
Vote: Lamora Locke

My weak reasoning can no longer defend him.

Also, I just noticed that although Elli voted for Dizzle on D1, Elli quickly changed his vote to Ross. Come D2, same dance, without voting, even though Elli explicitly said Zdenek was scummy. If LL flips town, can we please, please lynch Elli?

[Fake Edit]: Oh Hi LlamaGod. I hope this answered your question?

[Rain]

I am VV/LL's neighbor.

The reason why I initially thought he was town was because nowhere did he try to influence my vote.

The reason why I didn't want to say this was because that means (or at least strongly hints) that neither of us is vig.

Also, we don't know each other's alignment.

[Rain]

Sorry, forgot to mention:

A quick summary looked like:
-Hi, I'm VV. I'm replacing CarrotCake.
-Hi, I'm Rain. I'm replacing Mute.
-Hi, I'm Lock Lamora. I'm replacing VV.

And somewhere in there, someone thought Tasky was town.

[Rain]

^Locke speaks truth.

A little note I'd like to point out: I think VV was trying to be funny when he said he thinks AGar's a mason. It was posted after AGar's death.

[Rain]

Urgh.... This is killing me. I thought I had found our last scum. Tasky's NK would make sense because he's the only player who did not explicitly say he found LlamaGod to be town, which would imply LlamaScum. However, given Llama's vote on Jerbs and Zdenek, it seems... less plausible.

By the way, I think it's safe to say that the confirmed alive townies so far are:
RossWilliam/GreyICE (given his "I saw Dizzle online" push)
Pappums Rat (claimed Mason, no counter claim)
Empking (claimed Vig, no counter claim)

which leaves, as possible suspects, LlamaGod, RobCapone, Ellibereth and myself. I'll probably not gonna lynch myself, and of the remaining only Rob is really town. Might I suggest shooting and lynching LlamaGod and Ellibereth, in no particular order? The advantage of lynching Ellibereth is that we'd only have to buy 1 bus (vs Zdenek) whereas in Llama's case, we'd need to buy 2 busses.

If there are no counter claim to Grey or Empking, I'm willing to bet my life on this. If scum isn't found between those two, you can lynch me tomorrow. It wouldn't be too late (unless there's more than 1 scum remaining, which isn't impossible, since there were originally 13 players).

[Rain]

Vote: Ellibereth

[Rain]

OMGUS is overrated. So what if it is?

Llama brings a good point I had missed, about Rob FoS'ing both scums D1 while voting for others.

I had also missed Rob's former account, HOMJ. I thought he was new to the game, and his posts so far does not reflect his experience.

Adding WIFOM to the mix, both VP Baltar and Tasky thought Rob was scum. And Zdenek attacking Llama because Llama attacked Rob. Rob, I demote you from "obvtown".

*Sigh*... Can we kill all of Ellibereth/Rob/Llama?

[Rain]

Wait, no hammer yet. We gotta make use of our day vig.

[Rain]

So.... Empking vig's Elli, and Llama hammers Rob? To make that happen, I'll vote as soon as Llama unvotes.

That or I'll hammer, die with the bomber, and have town promise to lynch Llama on the off chance Rob's town.

No offense, Llama. It's just that you're pretty much the only non-confirmed town left at that point.

[Rain]

Omg... I totally claim magical fucking hampster man.

[Rain]

Yo Tasky. What's this about the GG time stamps on role PM's?

[Rain]

this was my best Town performance so far

I lolled in class. hard.