ConSpiracy wrote:Ok guys, I promised to get a Javert case this weekend. Although I still think he is Edge's partner, I would like to point this out.
If you don't have the time to read this, read the blue lines. However, it is important to understand my line of thought and I highly suggest at least skimming through it.
Setup deduction
According to the mass-claim we have this:
2 knife mafia (presumably goons)
2 gun mafia (presumably goons)
1 entertainer (conditioned super roleblocker)
1 cop
1 medic student (conditioned doc)
6 VT
I don't think the mafias have any special powers. If one has a power, the other should have one, too. With both one power the setup is far too balanced towards the mafia. Those should be either 1-shot or a semi-useful role (voyeur, bodyguard, etc.) to stop them making overpowered. On top of that we would have been very unlucky to have both goons killed which is just a 25% chance to occur.
On top of that the scum has a possibility of having a day-QT, as ICE said when he outed himself. I know this doesn't have to be true, but he didn't lie about the 2 scum teams either.
However, 2 goon mafia with the entertainer, cop and medic student is far too balanced towards town. If either the entertainer or the cop outs himself he can be protected by the med student and won't be attacked until the med student is killed. If one of the entertainer or the cop is killed fast town can fully rely on the other and when the med student is killed both the entertainer and the cop have a free night.
Even if both mafias have a one-shot power, those can't be useful enough to help mafia enough to wall up against 3 powers.
Conclusion: The entertainer/cop/med student is overpowered and one of them must have lied
Rules application
We have a medic student and an entertainer. Both roles are odd and don't occur often. I searched for some statistics and found this:
Normal game rules wrote:New/variant roles may be included in limited number (no more than 1 in a Mini, 2 in a Large), and should be based on the usual role mechanics: Killing, Protecting, Investigating, Blocking, Voting, Enabling and Communication.
This means that there may just be 1 special role.
After that I searched if 1 of both roles can be normal and found this:
Normal game rules wrote:Roles which are explicitly Normal include:
Vanilla Townie, Sane Cop, Doctor, Vigilante, Roleblocker, Mason, Jailkeeper, Tracker, Watcher, Gunsmith, Miller, Bodyguard, Role Cop, Doublevoter, Hider, Neighbor, Bulletproof, Jack of All Trades, Serial Killer, Mafia Traitor, Mafia Godfather, Mafia Framer, Mafia-aligned versions of above roles
This are the non-variant possible modifiers:
Normal game rules wrote:Modifiers which are explicitly Normal include:
Even/Odd Night, Non-Consecutive Night, X-Shot, Macho, Weak, Back-Up (with or without primary role present)
Let's read back both the medic student and the entertainer to see if both apply for variant role.
Magnus_Orion wrote:I'm the doc. Well, sort of. The role's name is given as "Med Student" I can protect someone each night. I'm not told whether or not the protection was successful... If it is successful, however, then my protections no longer work after that point. I basically become a vanilla.
I think I was probably successful Night 2 when I protected oso.
I protected Javert N1, and Rob N3 (cause Oso said to, and I didn't really think it mattered cause I thought I was successful N2)
Magnus_Orion wrote:I re-read my role pm to clarify 1 thing, and noticed something else, so I have 2 clarifications to make
1. The protection stops working the night after a successful protection, so presumably I can block all kills during 1 night
2. I may be able to successfully protect tonight if I was successful night 2, I had assumed I can never protect successfully again, but upon re-reading I noticed that its possible to interpret my role pm as only preventing me from protecting only one night after I successfully make a protection.
Apart fromt he ambiguity about changing his RC, this is definitely a variant role. The Non-Consecutive Night comes near, but isn't the same: He can protect consecutive nights, but doesn't know the second time the protection doesn't count.
Let's see the entertainer role, then:
Oso wrote:Claim: Entertainer (for the purposes of this game that means roleblocker)
I function as a normal roleblocker but have a restriction and a bonus. I can't target the same player two nights in a row but if I block a member of a group, I block any team abilities they have as well (whether the person I actually target has any abilities or not). It probably goes without saying but I'll say it anyway: Town wins, I win.
This also is definitely a variant role. Non of the "possible" modifiers do not even come close to this.
Conclusion: 1 of them is scum, or both of them are scum
Setup deduction II
This brings me to the second point. If either Oso or Magnus is scum, the setup can only be (cop/)entertainer, (cop/)med student. However, only an entertainer or a med student is far too overpowered towards town. That would mean (if town loses night 1 either the entertainer or the med student) the setup would be either 7:2:2 or 8:2:1. Both are far to much scum favored and there has to be at least one cross kill to grant town a win (in the second one that isn't true, but is very difficult to win without). A game that is based on a cross kill is extremely town unfavoured.
A cop, however, doesn't make the other role overpowered (as a doc would) and would lessen the uphill battle.
Conclusion: The cop is town
Oso scum
If Oso is scum, he would have given us a very good fake-claim. He has to be scum with either Edgerobin or ICEninja.
Edgerobin-partner: Very unlikely, since he solely caused suspicion on edge.
ICEninja-partner: This one is more interesting. He was the fourth voter of the ICE wagon and could be scum throwing his partner under the bus. A scum day-QT would make this possibility a lot higher, but still. All Oso did day 1 after voting ICE was focussing on ICE. An experienced player would know the first wagon to be made doesn't necessarely have to be the lynch. The Oso knife scum would at least have left that road open.
Magnus scum
If Magnus is scum, he would be:
Edgerobin-partner: Let's get some quotes in
Magnus wrote:Edgerobin is a high priority suspect, due to oso's claim. However, there are plausible alternative explanations for the lack of kill
True, when I read this, I immediately thought about him being the med student (although it could be a fake doc crumb). However, this gives a great connection to me: Yes edge is my scumpartner, but I'd rather let him live. It leaves a bus attempt wide open.
Magnus wrote:Edgerobin is scum, 99.999999999%
However, Javert's point about role-blocking edge is good. So let's take out ICE's partner first.
Exactly the same.
These are the only things about Edge that said Edgetown/Edgescum. He only asked questions in the other Edge-mentions. Let's give that a gun mafia possibility.
ICE-partner: I have pointed this out earlier, but I will do it again.
Magnus wrote:I'm still gonna need ICE to clarify the stuff I mentioned in 106, but as of right now I'm not really supportive of the ICE wagon... that being said, Poirot has mentioned things to the effect that more interesting things lie after this wagon was pursued somewhat, but the initial foundation, at least, I feel is pretty shaky. I'll need to look into these later things poirot's referred to when I have more time...
That's ICE-partner +1. I give it a +2 because he kept asking about ICE without forming an opinion. Those questions weren't calling ICE either scum or town. So magnus is also possible to be scum with Ice.
Conclusion: Magnus is scum, Oso is high likely to be town
VOTE: Magnus_Orion
Well guys, that is a sudden change isn't it?