Mini 1122: Mafia.Exe Game Over

[Llamarble]

Hi!
GreyIce, are you town? Let's turn this into another 1105 style whomping.
VOTE: My Milked Eek
Stretchy case on DRK.

[Llamarble]

GreyIce already found scum? Very nice.
VOTE: Xine

[Llamarble]

Xine starts a threesome of bigfingered accusations.
Neruz claims to believe GreyIce was both originator and target of these accusations.
That doesn't make sense.
Unless he's distancing from one of the two of them, pretending that he isn't reading their contributions carefully because they aren't his scumbuddies.

VOTE: Neruz

[Llamarble]

Well Neruz makes more sense now.
Was going to move my vote back to Xine, but gut says she might be right.
VOTE: GreyIce

[Llamarble]

GreyIce and Xine are the player's I've played with before.
Currently the world makes the most sense to me if GreyIce is scum. He seems less aggressive than in my game with him where he was town.
Previously the world made most sense to me if Xine was scum. She seemed more aggressive than in my game with her where she was town.

[Llamarble]

Uh, what's wrong with using meta?
We are at

L - 2

though, and pretty prematurely.
VOTE: bgg
I've played 2 games with early unexplained, unannounced L-2 votes. Both were from scum hoping to make an unintentional quicklynch happen.

[Llamarble]

Argh, claiming early is a seriously antitown move. Luckily he's scum so we can just lynch him.
That was a very scummy vote-explanation. "I didn't need much of a reason to change votes" = "I don't care who we lynch as long as it's not me or my buddies." That, coupled with putting someone near lynch with no explanation at all, coupled with a seriously premature "hey look I'm a townie don't lynch me" claim just absolutely scream scum.
Now we just need to figure out his buddies.

And as for meta earlygame: super early game reasoning is always stretchy. Anything at all that makes one player feel slightly more likely to be scum is plenty to vote them based on as we go through the stretchy accusation -> discussion -> more confident accusation cycle. So I think using meta earlygame is actually better than using it later on as meta is often misleading anyway.

[Llamarble]

7 completed games. 4 ongoing.

Sure, if you think somebody is more likely scum than whomever you're currently voting. But you gave no reason why Xine was scummier than whomever you were voting and you put her close to a lynch.

[Llamarble]

bgg's ISO seems to consist mainly of trying to quicklynch somebody and then trying to look town.

Neruz thinking "Is bgg softclaiming??" when bgg has already hardclaimed seems very odd to me as well.

I should have time for a less cursory inspection tomorrow, I hope.

[Llamarble]

I think Xine is town.
@DRK:
What part of bgg's ISO looks town to you? The part where he moves his vote in order to make an unannounced ridiculously early L-2?
Or the part where he does the following gestures that I have tremendous difficulty imagining a townie doing all of?
(I think newbscum trying to look town explains them much better)
1. Says "mafia please don't kill me tonight"
2. Says "I am a good guy"
3. Claims VT for no reason
4. Claims ignorance of setup to a degree that seems unreasonable to me.
5. Says "I'm much better at looking town when I'm scum"
6. Says "I should come up with proof that I'm not scum after today" (as neruz pointed out this is superweird from a VT)
Do you really think newbtown would do ALL of these things in one game?

[Llamarble]

UNVOTE: bgg
I don't disagree with this wagon, but I've hardly read anyone else properly so I don't want a hammer before I've really analyzed 2/3 of the players.

[Llamarble]

I think Xine and Neruz are town. Ant looks a bit scummy, particularly if bgg is scum but even if he isn't.
Bgg is continuing his wifom bombardment. What townie bothers with "think I'm town (rightfully)" or "flip town (which I will)" or whatever it was?
I still have to read more players though.

[Llamarble]

I don't think there's a particular lack of counterwagon; also several players have been defending bgg. If you want to find him town, do so because you think his play is unfakeable.
I am too tired right now to figure out if Neruz is townflailing or scumflailing.
I am leaning more toward town on GreyIce and more toward scum on Xine now though. I am also a bit tired to explain that, which I realize is pretty much a total reversal of some of the few reads I've given. I'll make up for it tomorrow. Good night.

[Llamarble]

Okay, today I'll make a complete set of reads & explanations.

[Llamarble]

Okay, time for promised catch-up.

[Llamarble]

@GreyIce: Haha. I'll try to be better. I drove from California to Chicago this week.
I've been rereading this game taking notes, and am up to post 200 on that.

Unfortunately I ran into the sleep barrier again. But here are my reads so far:
Town:
Me
DRK
GreyICE
Neruz

Unsure:
Redacted
Nathanael
SC
Hiraki
Ant

Scummy
MME
bgg (wifom avalanche, unexplained L-2). He's just not newbie enough to justify that much wifomy stuff. Also premature VT claim.
Xine (counterwagons onto bgg after she gets to L-2 in rvs, insufficient scumhunting, vote posts that feel justificationy, now is wagoning onto Neruz, has expressed willingness to hammer GreyIce while he was helping her to lynch bgg whom she supposedly believed to be scum)
Greedling (2 posts all day and neither of them good...)

VOTE: Xine

[Llamarble]

That was

L-2

by the way.
Deadline in 3 days.

[Llamarble]

Wait how am I not following? Our read-lists are really similar.
Anyways I'm back to continue my reading.

[Llamarble]

Hiraki, are you on a phone? I think you missed a lot of newlines because that post doesn't make any sense.

One thing that I hadn't caught on my previous read is that Bgg has gotten even worse.
He goes from "are there any non VTs in this game mommy?" To
"I wonder if GreyIce is so intent on Xine because he daycawped her" (Heh reminds me of Beefster in MPM)
And then says
"I was scummy earlier because I don't want the mafia to kill me"
So his primary objective in this game has by his own admission been to stay alive... He admits some of his retardation was intentional, so the lynch all liars maxim applies too.
AAARRRRRGGHH This is blatantly playing against wincon if he's town.
And he's not even that much of a newb; he played a newbie game where he was vaguely intelligible and several games offsite.
He needs to die at some point since I simply refuse to lose to this strategy if he's scum. He claimed VT. Maybe we should just lynch him today after all.

His game relevant actions have been placing unexplained L-2, prematurely claiming VT, and wagoning Neruz who is probably town.
Aside from that he has displayed utterly unbelievable ignorance, apparently in order to not die. And a total lack of scumhunting. He is trolling or he is scum.

How many days do we have left? Wait the deadline is tomorrow or the day after??
I was about to revote bgg but we can't do that.

THE DEADLINE IS REALLY SOON

More Xine votes then please, I guess. Unless we get the extension on Greedling replacement (he has posted twice the whole game after all).

And let's not lynch Neruz because he's town, okay?

[Llamarble]

Isn't the deadline in like 9 hours?
If we have until replacements arrive then I'm going back to bgg. He's both the most likely player to be scum and the one who hurts us least if we lynch him and he flips town (particularly accounting for the VT claim). His recent behavior has me way more convinced than I was earlier; it was at least somewhat hard to tell if he was faking or not then. Now he's confirmed for us that he was. Saying he's all "excited to be actively scumhunting now" just feels so much more like trying to look town than like actually playing to the town wincondition. His scumhunting so far consists of attacking Neruz for "being willing to vote someone he knows to be town," which obviously isn't the game situation. His voting record is the horrible L-2 quicklynch seeking vote on Xine which he followed up by wifomavalancheing when called out for it. That and voting Neruz, whose wagon looks pretty scummy to me.

[Llamarble]

Unvote; Vote bgg

[Llamarble]

I want to lynch BGG instead, though I'll be back if necessary. I think the Neruz wagon looks ultra scumdriven.

[Llamarble]

Hello replacements!
I think Xine is more likely to be town than bgg. I suppose I'll marshall my reasons for thinking bgg is scum tonight, but essentially:
Early unannounced unexplained L-2 vote.
Early unprompted VT claim.
WIFOM assault which was intentional.
WIFOM bombing some more.
Weird attitudes toward many players.

[Llamarble]

Xine: Why would you want to "wait to be the hammer" for someone? That doesn't make any townsense.

[Llamarble]

Yay, the day returned just as I did!
DRKtown & BGGtown make me think Krazy is indeed scum. DRK was very suspicious of Krazy and then died. Krazy spent all day tunneling town and attacking people I have town reads on without really explaining. He did explain why bgg was scummy, but that was a pretty easy situation for scum to fake a case in. And he was in the middle of the bggwagon, as scum often are.

At the moment I think GreyIce is piss-poor town, but if bgg flips town (and Xine by relation) then GreyIce would be in my top 3 with Llamarble and Hiraki.

This, coupled with tunneling on bgg looks like a plan to lynch the easy townie and follow it up by attacking other players all of whom look town to me. I don't see how a bgg townflip exonerates Xine at all; she was hardly reluctant to lynch him. Greedling didn't do anything except wagon Xine though (a reason I found him suspicious yesterday), so Krazyscum doesn't necessarily imply Xinescum regardless.

VOTE: Krazy

[Llamarble]

^ Why?

[Llamarble]

Huh, I can definitely buy that Greedling vote as distancing.
I guess Krazy/Mute/Xine are the scumteam.

[Llamarble]

I don't see how any cop in their right mind would investigate PGOdoc. I find mafia risking a roleblock on a claimed possible PGO weird too. Unless RBing a PGO does not result in death (because of the RB), in which case it would make perfect sense. I still find Grey infinitely more likely to be town than Krazy regardless. I don't know what motivated the copclaim out of the gate D2 though. Maybe setting up bussing or something. Neruz's last is weird too. Who votes for somebody and then says "if he flips scum, go ahead and lynch me!" Anyway,

CONFIRM VOTE: KRAZY

[Llamarble]

Krazy is at

L-2

. 2 more votes gogo!
Though we should wait for everyone to at least weigh in.

[Llamarble]

Uh, in case you haven't noticed, there's almost no chance of you not being lynched today unless somebody counterclaims Grey.
If you were town, you would want the counterclaim to prevent your mislynch.
Since you're scum, you realize there won't be one and are trying to make excuses for why the real doctor wouldn't CC.

[Llamarble]

Okay, I'll elaborate. Suppose Krazy is town.
Then Krazy is cop, Grey is scum, someone else might be doc. Krazy is clearly going to get lynched unless that player CCs.
No claim -> mislynch Krazy, scum NK someone, lynch scum, scum NK someone.
Claim -> Lynch scum, scum NK doc, lynch somebody who could be scum & Krazycop clears or catches someone, scum NK Krazy.

The difference is that with no claim we waste a day on a guaranteed mislynch and miss out on whatever results Krazy might get tonight.
This significantly outweighs the difference between losing the doc vs. a random pro-town player. Especially since we are already at an odd number.

I'm wondering a bit whether Grey & Krazy might both be scum. Scum targeting a possible PGO (especially with a roleblocker) is just as weird as a town cop doing so, and I could see them banking on the cop/doc combo not being present in which case one of their claims would likely win the game for the scum. I just find it hard to believe scum thinking "hrm is this a landmine let's have our PR step on it to find out" when simply avoiding it would suffice for the time being.

[Llamarble]

Eh, I kind of feel like scum would be bussing in this situation since Krazy is pretty clearly unsalvageable, especially long term.
TBM's reasoning isn't profoundly awful either; a claim of "I am cop with guilty" that gets the response "Liar! I am doctor!" without thorough context-analysis would suggest believing the cop.

One shot is absolutely allowed in normals; oneshot vigs are quite popular in fact. And each mini normal is allowed one nonnormal role which PGO would make sense as. But thanks for clarifying why your scumteam was sufficiently confident in GreyIce not being PGO to RB him in spite of his claim.

[Llamarble]

GreyIcetown's thought process is pretty clear.
I am a doctor and have revealed I am either doctor or PGO to the world at large.
I got roleblocked for some reason (target died), presumably by scum, so the scum have already figured out that I'm actually a doc.
My role is now information that the scum already have, so there is no reason for me not to reveal it to the town especially if it help us think things out.

Do PGOs die when targeted for the NK by scum? I had always assumed both the PGO and the scum who targeted them would die.

[Llamarble]

...
He claimed PGO or Doc. They targeted him and didn't die, eliminating the PGO possibility.

[Llamarble]

He's proceeding under the assumption of 3 scum, one of them being blown up by the PGO.
This is getting laughable.
Also Nathanael looks town.

[Llamarble]

TOWN ALLIANCE OF DOOM:
Llama
Grey
Neruz
Hiraki

Town:
Nathanael
Pappums

Probably town:
Xine (some of her stuff just feels forthright to me; I guess I'll go into some detail at some point)
MME

Scumteam:
TBM
Mute
Krazy

I have a very very good feeling about this.

[Llamarble]

I think a cop with a guilty should not allow the lynch of anyone other than the confirmed scum, claiming if necessary.
But Krazy is obvscum and I'm ready for today to end.

I guess I should explain why AntMute is scum.

If bgg is our lynch for today and he does flip town, I am thinking Surprise_Carcinogen and Hiraki might be scum.

Lines up lynches & attacks soft townie targets. A pattern that continued with a Neruz vote (and later by Mute going after my soft lurkerflesh).
I felt like the scumresponse to the bgg wagon would be to set up townielynches for the next couple days based on it while letting it happen.
Mute waited to bus Krazy until his gambit had clearly already failed, then placed L-1 with reasoning that didn't explain his vehemence level.

[Llamarble]

@Mute: I'm happy to do battle tomorrow, but let's lynch Krazy today. I don't see any reason to wait on hammering him.
@Hiraki: some questionable logic from Neruz doesn't change the fact that Krazy is pretty clearly scum.

[Llamarble]

@Marble: Do you want to wait for TheButtonman to post something?

Everyone's welcome to post stuff and I don't demand a quicklynch or anything like that, but I personally feel ready to go ahead with the next day so I probably won't do much thorough reading until D3.

[Llamarble]

Eh, I feel like it's pretty easy for scum to say X claimed cop with guilty on Y, most of the time this means Y is guilty; VOTE Y. So I wouldn't hand TBM or Nath clear townreads yet. Scum also love to use "this is logically what we have to do" as an excuse. It's the easiest way to lie since it requires no creativity, just analysis and a bit of twisting.

What I think happened is the scum decided a trade of a heavily suspected member for the most obvtown & best scumhunting townie (who also happened to be a claimed PR of some kind) would be a huge benefit to them. 3 townies die for the price of one scum, and lynches will be fast, reducing content, since the hunting will just be "do I believe X or Y." Townies also often do things they can be attacked for later in such situations where as scum who know what is going on can tailor their play to look townish after.

Of course there's the secondary possibility Grey & Krazyteam had some information or were willing to risk no cop/doc combo in an effort to confirm one of them as town, but that doesn't matter since we're lynching scum today anyway in that case.

[Llamarble]

BTW Mute voting me while thinking Krazy is fakeclaiming makes NO townsense.

[Llamarble]

There was a cop and a doctor in 1098, but the general point that cops are not super common and thus a decent fakeclaim is valid.
I don't think Mute's "llama is bussing me" or whatever it was he said is a scumtell, he probably meant I was bussing Krazy or somesuch.
Where did Krazy talk about Neruz wanting him to be quiet?

[Llamarble]

Hooray, now we don't have to buy scum being willing to risk their RB, we just have to buy them asking what would happen, which no doubt they would.
On the other hand a cop targeting someone who said they may be a PGO still makes nothing remotely resembling sense.
Two more Krazy votes.

[Llamarble]

Xine, didn't you say you wanted to hammer somebody? Now's your chance.

[Llamarble]

"Explain to me how they get a 3 for 1 by gambiting here?"
Nightkills.

[Llamarble]

Yay, we were right!
Though I suppose it may have been impossible to be wrong between TBM/Grey.
I've not really been seeing Xinescum, but I'll keep reading her and trying.
I read TBM again and I can see the misguided town angle for him.

Currently I'm pondering MME & Mute & have to look more at Xine.
And I need to check on my Hirakitown read.

[Llamarble]

As in Greyscum, while unlikely, hasn't been totally ruled out. If they were both scum we couldn't have been wrong yesterday.

[Llamarble]

Sorry that this got wallish, but I ended up mentioning a lot of Xine's posting.

I think Pappums rat is scum, actually. He comes out voting popular/easy target Bgg. Next day he jumps to the popular / easy target Xine (a vote I don't think he's explained). Then sees everyone voting Krazy and says he will too. Then when it looks like Krazy may not get lynched he says he's starting to believe Krazy maybe, then when it becomes a truly foregone conclusion he votes Krazy with an "almost certainly scum" declaration. Then today he's right back on the popular Xine wagon. I don't see evidence of him trying to figure out what's going on. And SC spent a lot of time arguing over why lynching bgg was good strategy instead of arguing about who was scum. Krazy's interaction with Pappums looks a lot like distancing too. And the player Pappums gave as a townread (Neruz) died last night.

VOTE: Pappums Rat

Some of Xine's posts feel honest and she seems to be scumhunting. She also came out strong early and helped get content moving, even if part of that was her being in trouble. And Greedling sitting his vote on her would be slightly less likely if she's scum too.

Examples:

"Actually it does, I see him(?) as the most obv town player so far. so, please, do explain." Felt like real, town curiosity.

When I call her town:
"Llamarble, hey... sweet! also, I (obv) am open to changing my mind, but so far nothing has inspired that. "
Seems like an honest response.

She is also curious about everyone's experience levels and accuses Neruz of pot-calling-kettle-black.

"I'm really tired, but didn't he say this was his first game playing as a vanilla, and then claim that he didn't know if anything other then vanilla exists, DRK, I'll get back to you soon, I'm being rude to guestsby posting right now"
Is more trying-to-figure-the-game-out.

Votes bgg for the unannounced L-2 and an omgus response. Fine by me.

DRK, this is the post that made me think you to be scum

LA through the 14th

Also,

unvote, vote: Greedling

. I do like [Redacted]'s vote on Greedling.

So she disapproves of DRK's Greedling vote. This would be a strange way for scum to approach a vote on a buddy early game.

Explains things about Nath that are bothering her.

Approves an unvote on bgg to generate more discussion. Pro-town.

Points out various contradictory things.

Strongly dislikes the 'I would lynch bgg even if confirmed town' idea from Neruz.

WOW, Neruz+Hiraki just pissed me off so bad with their responses to bgg's case. You both have gotten on other player's cases for not responding to insignificant BS at other times in this game, now you both declare that a well thought out (if awkwardly formatted) illustration of contradictions is not worthy of response, or even (Hiraki) reading. you are either extremely STUPID, or simply Scum. so fess up, which are you?

Felt like honestly irritated town.

ISO 33 is more transparent 'I am thinking this' type posting.

Her D2 'let's not kill either of them' was based on the idea that the innocent one would be NKed. After that she seems to legitimately weigh the options (giving good arguments such as Grey's high detail level & Krazy's calmness) and produces content about other players too.

[Llamarble]

... But that last Xine post was especially good. Her town reads and her scumreads make sense to me (I disagree but see where she's coming from on myself and TBM).
Why do you think Pappums is obvtown / Xine is obvscum?
People mainly are citing her let's not lynch either of Ice/Krazy, but I don't see evidence of that being invented rather than misguided.
I think we should lynch either Pappums Rat or MME today with some consideration of Mute.

[Llamarble]

Eh, sincere scumhunting and forthright posting are pretty much _the_ towntells. I'd like very much to see your "Pappums is obvtown" wall.
Somebody else having done some particular thing Pappums did doesn't matter. Obviously a lot of people voted bgg & Xine & Krazy. He's scummy because he has pursued easy wagons without giving reasoning that sounded like it had really convinced him.

[Llamarble]

Actions do matter. Pappums initially said he was going to vote Krazy during the initial krazy wagon following the claim, without really explaining why. Then when TBM & Hiraki showed signs of switching he said he was rethinking it, then when it was obvious Krazy would hang he voted him and declared him "almost certainly scum." He has also not given any explanations for his Xine votes. I can be lazy about explaining my reads sometimes, but I try to at least give the gist of my logic.

[Llamarble]

Huh, we have about a week left and should be moving things along more than we are. We really need MME and Pappums' replacement to get in here and talk.

Town:
Llama
Nathanael
GreyICE

Likely town:
TBM
Xine

Possible scum
Mute

One of these is probably scum with Pappums:
Hiraki
MME

Scum:
Pappums

[Llamarble]

Are you talking about my post 2.5 weeks ago? I've read more since then.
Pappums could be town. I'm kind of confused by this game. I think the scum aren't posting much and I need MME's replacement to contribute.
Maybe Xine really is scum and my pants are on my head.
But I haven't been able to read Xine assuming she's scum and come out with "this makes sense."

[Llamarble]

Hahaha
I finally read Xine as scum and made it stick in my brain.
In addition to stuff everyone's mentioned, when Krazy shows up and sees Xine is something of a major wagon, he defends her.
Xine gets on the bgg wagon D1 when Krazy & bgg are even.

So they both acted to prevent each others' lynches D1.

Vote: Xine

@Hiraki I was saying my scumread on Pappums didn't feel solid, so he could be town. I wasn't calling him town outright.

[Llamarble]

The .21 nanoseconds between those posts were spent rereading Xine and Krazy and realizing they really do make a lot of sense as buddies.
My post opened up with "hahaha" because I fully realize I've gone back and forth to a kind of silly degree.
If I were scum with Xine, I'd have kept on Pappums or one of the other non-Xine potential lynches since 1v6 is just bad news when noone particularly thinks you're town.
If I were scum not with Xine, I'd have happily joined the Xine wagon from start of D3. That would have looked like totally reasonable play.
I was a primary reason Krazy got lynched instead of you yesterday. "A cop claimed a guilty on a self-admitted targeter of the NK-ee" would be an easy ML wagon to sell.
Considering that, I'm not sure why everyone is complaining about my quality of play so much.

[Llamarble]

A claim would be helpful

[Llamarble]

Unvote

For now.
Xine said something about being willing to die D1 which matches up with the claim she just made.
And Conspiracy has committed the 'Replace -> do what previous guy was doing because it fits into the plan instead of bringing a new perspective' tell.

[Llamarble]

Good, I eagerly await them.
This is the Xine post that made me think she might be a VT:

Heh, I lurk, tis true, always have. (I'm a very busy woman, but I manage to keep up on reading, and posting requirements, feel confident in that) I do like that you excuse yourself for lack of content, and then immediately attack me for lack of content... awesome. as far as not commenting on my wagon, that's cause I'm not worried about it, 1)

I'm not afraid to die

2) it gives ma a great point of view for early wagon analysis.
I'm even more sure about GreyICE being scum, as sure about DRK, and less sure on bgg, no new scum-spects.

I was going to yowl loudly for a hammer had she claimed anything else.

[Llamarble]

You really need to provide an explanation of that read, because Conspiracy is _far_ from obvtown.

[Llamarble]

If it makes you feel better, I think you're scummy but I think TBM is town.

[Llamarble]

Okay Hiraki, we'll see about Conspiracy later.
VOTE: Xine
Hopefully she got scared out of fakeclaiming by Krazy's spectacular lack of success.

[Llamarble]

It's a logical analysis of actions vs. what looks like town thinking situation, so I've had problems making up my mind.
My best guess for a non Xine team is Conspiracy / MME or Conspiracy / Hiraki.

[Llamarble]

I'D LIKE TO SOLVE THE PUZZLE

VOTE: XTOXM

SCUMBUDDY: NATHANAEL

Though Hiraki could replace one of them.

[Llamarble]

@Conspiracy: What is your read on Hiraki?

[Llamarble]

Excellent, I was just about to propose a massclaim.

[Llamarble]

Any town investigative PRs have had 3 nights of actions to report on.
There haven't been vigshots and there is an RB so I think it's safe to guess we have at least one.
There is too much risk of losing that information to justify leaving them another day to get NKed or RBed.
And we can find scum when claims conflict whereas in lylo "A or B is scum" requires us to be right the first time.

I propose the following order:
Tox
Nath
Buttons
Conspiracy
Mute
Hiraki
Llama

Or we can just do the usual popcorn stuff.

[Llamarble]

Actually there are 7 players left, so it's 5 town vs. 2 scum.

Massclaim is exciting!
Must...Wait...until...end...to...comment.

[Llamarble]

We have a mason claim, so the benefit of massclaim to scum (knowing who to NK) has already happened unless Hiraki is scum.
Now let's get the benefit to town (pinning scum down to specific claims so they can't use fakeclaims to dodge lynches).
With that in mind, I'll Q this FT:

I fail to see why we are discussing things during MASS-CLAIM!
Stop it.

[Llamarble]

Just to make sure it's not missed:

It is currently Nathanael's turn to claim

[Llamarble]

I'm a tracker.
Krazy targeted DRK N1 (hehe)
Buttons targeted nobody N2
Conspiracy targeted nobody N3

I suppose Tox goes last.

[Llamarble]

Whoah, that's really, really confusing...
But there's almost no way Grey and I are towns' only PRs; Doc/Masons/tracker vs. roleblocker makes sense.
Hiraki, please explain yourself.

Unvote

Also Grey got RBed N1 and IIRC N2 as well, so the scum roleblocker must have targeted someone each night and it is safe to say one of the nonmason, nontracked guys (Mute & tox & Nathanael) is the scum roleblocker.
We should not lynch Buttons or conspiracy today because they have less than half the chance of being scum the other players do.

So we're lynching one of Mute, Tox and Nathanael provided Hiraki can sensibly explain himself.

[Llamarble]

If you doubt me, look at how my investigations have effected my reads. After N1, I absolutely forced the Krazy lynch. After N2, I gave up my previous suspicious attitude toward buttons. And same for Pappumspiracy after N3. Also town is underpowered without me, so I'm pretty much confirmed town at this point.

Now get out of your tunnel and tell me which of Tox or Nath you think are scum.

[Llamarble]

I targeted each of the people I targeted because I was suspicious of them. If there's one target I regret it's Conspiracy, since I noticed Hiraki saying Conspiracy was obvtown looked role-information-inspired but was still worried they might both be scum.

But since I tracked conspiracy going nowhere last night and the setup makes easily most sense as doc/masons/tracker/6 VTs/3scum, I'd say I am definitely willing to lose if Conspiracy/Hiraki are the scumteam. Which leaves us at:
Confirmed town:
Llama
Conspiracy
Hiraki

Tracked going nowhere in agreement with VTclaim->probtown:
Buttonmen

Reasonable lynch options today:
Mute
Xtox
Nathanael

I have gotten a bit of a townread on Mute, which is why my first post of today stated I think Tox & Nath are the scumteam.

Buttonmen is not confirmed town since the RB _could_ have submitted both night actions, but he has less than 50% the odds of being scum the others do and definitely should not be lynched today.

[Llamarble]

Ah, just to add to retroactivethoughtprocesstransparency, I remember I was thinking about targeting Xine since she was a strong candidate for lynch and I wanted to see if that was a good idea, but I didn't because I was afraid she'd get vigged and I'd lose a night's results.

[Llamarble]

Also we pretty clearly have a roleblocker or something analogous, which is a weird counterpart to just a doctor & masons.

Seriously, go back in my play and look at how my opinion changed on Buttons before and after N2 and how I came out roaring for Krazy's blood even before he fakeclaimed cop (after which I loudly confirm-voted). And how I dropped Conspiracy from my scumlist after N3. I would have to have been planning a tracker claim with the results I've gotten for the entire game. Note the order in which I requested for claims. First the guys I thought were scum to make scum claim first, then the guys I had tracked going nowhere to give them a chance to claim a PR which I could prove false, then Mute, minor townread, then Hiraki, townPRread, then me since my tracking data can verify other claims. The amount of weird stuff required for me to be scum is pretty unbelievable, and the fact that Nath is still pushing it makes me think he is scum looking for whatever mislynches he can get.

Nath's logical analysis of the Krazy situation was also scummy. That just felt exactly like how scum produce content in fakeclaim vs claim land.

My current guess as to what's going on is dual bussing between Nath and Tox. Nath hopes to lynch Tox->Me->Mute or TBM, winning it for scum. Tox figures he can get Mute lynched followed by TBM, so whoever gets lynched the partner can use the bus cred to finish. This would make Nath the RB since he's the one who can afford me still alive tonight.

But I'll read through all the 6 possibilities.

[Llamarble]

Also I'm not a mafia tracker since scum tracker & RB would be a really weird overcounter to masons + doc.

[Llamarble]

I had no idea whether there might be a vig, but I figured if there was one it would likely shoot Xine and I didn't want to waste my night action.
I have never "assumed a cop." I am an investigative PR, therefore I know there is an investigative PR.
I was pointing out the implausibility of hyposetup in which I am lying.
Actually, I was the first post of D2 and in it I voted Krazy.
Some of my read changes are due to night actions, some due to reading.
I've also done a bit of NK dodging in this game; so long as town was lynching who I wanted it was best for me to be under some suspicion.
I've consequently given less justification for some of my reads than I ordinarily would and haven't destroyed cases against me the way they deserved.
Saying Grey might actually be scum with Krazy was intended to get the scum to let both of us live in hopes I'd help mislynch him.
That's the only read I gave that disagreed with my actual thoughts on the game.

As for wifom, I have pointed out multiple situations in which believing I am scum forces you to believe absurd things like
"I have been planning a tracker fakeclaim all game and somehow have behaved as if I was really getting tracker results" and
"our setup has 2 masons and a doctor against a roleblocker who only has 1 relevant target."
Since believing I am scum forces you to believe many absurd things, it is foolish to believe I am scum.
Saying WIFOMWIFOMWIFOM does not change that, though your attempt to use buzzwords instead of arguments is noted.

Multiple people thinking I'm scum make it more plausible there are misguided townies though.

Now to do reading.

[Llamarble]

Darn, Mute still reads town. I guess I'm going to have to convince him to move that vote.
Also Nathanael is probably scum.
Working on Tox & Buttons.

[Llamarble]

Tox could easily be scum; nothing hard to fake has happened there yet and he came out today with VC based (easily fakeable casestructure) attacks on confirmed townies whee!
Buttons is tricky. He sure does push against a Krazy lynch, and there were one or two other things that made me uneasy, but also some towntells.

Still need to read for associative tells, but I think if we lynch Tox or Nath -> Tox or Nath->Buttons we'll probably win.

[Llamarble]

*EBWOP: (Tox or Nath)-> (Tox or Nath) -> Buttons

[Llamarble]

Hehe, now who's in wifom mode. Also tunneling is very popular scumstrategy. But so far I think you may believe your case on me?
Who do you think my buddy is?

[Llamarble]

As for whether I know if I've been roleblocked, I asked Exe about it Wednesday and haven't gotten a response back yet. But it shouldn't matter since Conspiracy is basically confirmed town and if I recall correctly we know the RB targeted Grey N2 so my result on buttonmen was definitely legitimate.

[Llamarble]

I'm at L - 1

SOMEBODY UNVOTE BEFORE TEH SCUMZ REALIZE A QUICKHAMMER GUARANTEES THEM 3 MAN LYLO WITH NO CONFIRMED TOWNS ALIVE

[Llamarble]

I have received word that I would have been informed if I was roleblocked, so my results have not been messed with.

[Llamarble]

As for Conspiracy's case:
This "his claim is convenient" stuff is GARBAGE. WTF is convenient about it? There was no possible way I could have made a proof without targeting scum; in case you haven't noticed NOBODY ELSE CLAIMED A ROLE THAT TARGETS. It's not like I claimed to target a bunch of dead people who everyone already knows the roles of.

Doc/masons is not enough town power at all. That fact alone makes me 95% confirmed town. Throw in the fact that I blasted scum D2 and have played according to the information I have received and continuing to think I'm scum is real stupidity. I spent a long time defending townXine in a situation where it would have been _Easy_ to get her mislynched fast.

Regrets: I selected a target that an idea which was already in my mind suggested was suboptimal, so I am a bit disappointed in myself for not thinking more about it.
I was worried about Hiraki/Conspiracy scumteam though.

Self-confirming: I pointed out that I'm obvtown because I AM. Believing otherwise is deep stupidity and a waste of our discussion time,
but I'm willing to humor and continue demonstrating why believing I am scum forces you to believe things that make no sense.

WHAT IS OVERCAUTIOUS ABOUT ASKING THE MOD A QUESTION WHICH THEY HAVE NOW ANSWERED?

Hiraki's attitude toward a massclaim and his "pappums is obvtown" made me think he might be the town's other remaining PR, so I wanted him near the end of the order.
I wanted to go last since I have an action-mapping PR.

My claimrequestorder went:
People I thought were scum
People I had data on and thus could catch fakeclaiming but were probtown
Mute who I had a townread on
Hiraki who I thought was town's other PR after his massclaim proposal
Me.

I guess I'm going to have to go back and reconstruct my logic on why I targeted who.

Nath has one vote on Mute with limited followup, so I have not ruled out that scumteam.

[Llamarble]

Okay, I see and agree with the "it's not Nath + Mute" arguments.
As I've mentioned, I don't particularly think Mute is scum at all, though his tunneling is vomit-inducingly annoying.

Tox sure did come out saying he wanted to lynch all confirmed townies.
I don't think that slot has ever placed a vote on scum unless it was on Nathbuddy or on TBM in RVS?

Buttons + Tox makes a lot of sense. I should see if it makes _all_ of the sense.

[Llamarble]

Also Mute please unvote; if town decides to lynch me later then so be it but don't let a mafia member quickhammer.

[Llamarble]

At the moment I'm trying to figure out who the scum are.

[Llamarble]

It guarantees them a 3man lylo with no confirmed townies alive, which is better than a 2/3 chance of scumwin.

[Llamarble]

My point is that one of them quicklynches me, then gets lynched, and the other is left with buttons/mute/nath/Xtox (one of them was the scum who QHed and is gone) in 3 man lylo. You and Conspiracy would get NKed along the way. It's probably a better chance of a win for them than leaving me alive and risking town coming to its senses.

[Llamarble]

*Restrains self from personal attacks*
I am going to ignore you guys for the moment and go figure out who the scum are.
I will explain why the scum are who they are with clear and straightforward arguments.
Then if you people actually lynch me you'll at least have a corpse to sheep that didn't spend the entire game tunneling town.

[Llamarble]

You sure love your buzzwords...
Anyway Buttons is still town, which leads me back to the Nath + Tox scumteam which I got to from my beginning-of-day reread.
And yup, on more thorough readthrough Xtox & Nath are the scumteam. Yay for me solving the puzzle at the beginning of the day.
A. Krazy mentions every player in ways that make me think they aren't scumbuddies except for these two. (Buttons & Mute are unfortunately runners up)
B. They hardly mention each other or Krazy until D2 when Nath makes a "logic says we should all vote Grey" post and then eventually switches wagons.
C. Tox came out today wanting to lynch Hiraki or Conspiracy. He's now voting Nath by POE and hoping either me or Buttons can be MLed.
D. The placement of MME & Krazy makes perfect sense in Nathscum's scumlist
E. MME did nothing remotely game relevant except toss out minor suspicions and claim lurking isn't scummy while megalurking.
F. Nath has spent almost all of his time jabbing at confirmed town with easy-to-fake-jabby-scummy-reasoning.
G. Nath drops a mysterious Krazy vote toward the end of D1 while Krazy's wagon is picking up with no explanation and then quickly rescinds it as the wagon dies.
H. Nath's "I am going to logic out what is going on so I can tread as carefully as possible while trying to lynch the other guy before my buddy" post.

VOTE: Xtoxm

I do still feel like Buttons or Mute could be scum without stunning me too much, but they are not as likely as tox/nath.

Elaboration will come; this was partially just notes to myself.

[Llamarble]

Tox case coming up; basic ideas are outlined in my post above (POE, Voting record, Krazy's posting, scummy poststyle, etc)

Not lynching me isn't an autoloss for Toxscum; Final day would be me, Tox and buttons according to his plan,
And Buttons is not confirmed town (I checked and the RB is allowed to submit both actions) and he'd have towncred for Nathlynch.
I think it's actually more likely he's hoping I get lynched despite his protesting though.
That would make him look good for having defended town and set Mute up for the gamending mislynch.

First post of D4 came out of a long reading session taking my new "Conspiracyprobtown" result into account.

[Llamarble]

Case on Tox:

POE - I know Hiraki and Conspiracy and myself are town.
TBM and Mute both read town, which leaves Nath and Tox.
The fact that both of them read scum makes me happy.

Krazy's posting -

My Milked Eek
-Still waiting on that catch-up post.

Is the only thing he EVER says about the MME slot.

MME/tox voting record:
Did nothing relevant with their vote D1.
Ignored Krazy issue while flaking but didn't get replaced until later so presumably he was around N2.
Tox came in and said "I wanna lynch Conspiracy or Hiraki" who are both now confirmed town.
The logic Tox used for that was VCA stuff, which is among the easiest casetypes for scum to fake.
(Another popular scumfakecase is the birds-eye-deductive type Nath used when voting Grey over Krazy)

MME posting style:
Calls DRK out for lesser activity, then says lurking isn't a scumtell while going into gradually-deepening flakemode.

There are a couple things in there that worry me though.
A: "lol, I am inclined to believe that" @ bgg's VT claim
followed by refusal to vote bgg and going after Xine instead.

And calling me town is indeed pretty dangerous for Toxscum even if there are ways it could work out for him;
I'm definitely the best lynch scum can hope for.

I think Nath is a lot more scummy than Tox individually but is harder to plug into teams.

Nath case is coming next.

[Llamarble]

Hi, been some time, showers and stuff.

Glancing through the thread;
page 1
- greyice gets some town points for his post about xine's suspicions. Mainly because of the tone and the timing of that post.
- seemingly contradictory, but xine gets townie points as well for outing her suspicions.

page 2
- ant, have we played together before?
- I do not like Llamarble "constantly" referencing, subtle or not, that one game where he and greyice were town.
- neruz gets townie points

page 3
- bgg makes a stupid vote, but meh, more interesting is the greyice-llamarble interaction in reaction to this vote

page 4
- ant makes the correct assumption about bgg's experience in relation to bgg's claim
- still stand by my post that I believe bgg's vt claim, curious about llamarble not trying to view this claim from another angle
- as for my experience, 20-30 forum games and a load of face-to-face mafia

I somewhat made my way through page 4. I'll restart reading when I'm less tired tomorrow.

This was MME's sole real scumhunting attempt, and it could be worse, but makes no mention of Nath or Greedling.
The "I believe bgg's VT claim" does give me a bit of pause; scum usually don't close avenues toward mislynches that readily.

[Llamarble]

Yeah, I read Nathanael some more and he has achieved the rank of OBVSCUM in my mind.
I think the most likely scumteams are MMETox+Nath or TBM + Nath.
I am significantly more confident in Nathlynch than in Toxlynch.
VOTE: Nathanael

Krazy's mentions of Nathanael:
Tells him asking a player to make a case on themself is dumb. Doesn't accuse him of being scummy for it. Coachy/distancy.
"Hey guys are DRK and Nathaniel the same person?" Totally distancing and putting buddy in a pile with a townie.
He also says pretty much nothing about Nathanael in his "these are my opinions of all the players" post.

As for Nathanael's own posting, that gets its own post.

[Llamarble]

LET'S DO THIS.

scum: Xine
scummy: DeathRowKitty, Surprise_Carcinogen
null: Greedling, [Redacted], My Milked Eek, Ant_to_the_max, Llamarble, Neruz
townish: GreyICE, Hiraki
town: bgg1996

Well look at that; Everyone he didn't list as null is now confirmed town. Whee!

Here is my updated list (from scum to town):
Neruz = Surprise_Carcinogen > Xine > bgg = Hiraki > Llamarble > DeathRowKitty = Ant_to_the_max = [Redacted] = Greedling = My Milked Eek > GreyICE
I would agree with lynching anyone of the first five. In particular this means that I will vote Xine if deadline requires, even if I would prefer Neruz or S_C atm.

I'll happily lynch any of 5 confirmed townies woo! Scumz are middle-townie!

UNVOTE: VOTE: Krazy

Never explained, never followed up on. In complete disagreement with scumlists where he gave _5_ players he'd like to lynch.
Intended to be early on Krazywagon in case it took off while distancing? I think so.

I think it is clear we have to lynch either Krazy or GreyICE.
For the whole duration of Day 1, I had a good feeling that GreyICE is town, and had a quite scummy vibe from Krazy.
but, now things have to be reconsidered.
*blahblahscumlogicwallblahblah*
this is funny, I started typing with the objective to prove that 1 is likelier than 2, but I think that after this analysis it is clear that it is exactly the other way round
I think at this point, I am going to vote by statistical likelihood, as I think I can trust that more than my reads off the extremely chaotic last pages.
UNVOTE: VOTE: GreyICE
*blah*

This. Is. Turboscummy. Whenever a situation like this comes up, scum love to try and hash out probabilities and say "this must be what's going on"
And the end result is a GreyIce counterwagon-vote. He wanted that free Grey mislynch, so he dishes out some "the power of logic compels you!" (Button's attitude was similar)

He next asks a few rules questions about how a scum RB works with a PGO.
At this point it was unlikely Grey would get lynched regardless, so he gives up, shows the logichole he was ignoring to justify a Greyvote, and gets ready to hammer Krazy.

I like the P_R case and I agree that he looks bad in ISO. Adding that I was quite suspicious of SC, I could go with this lynch.

I am not seeing all this llama-hate, I think his case on P_R did make sense.

2 posts later:

first my current readlist:
town: GreyICE, TBM
almost town: Mute
...
scummy: Llamarble, Xine, PR/ConS, Hiraki, MME

Yay mysterious unexplained incompatible reads.

And finally, today:

I am at this point convinced that Llama/Xtoxm are the remaining scum.

I totally agree with ConSp's case. Additionally, Xtoxm is trying to save Llama with statements-of-absolute ("He is obvtown") based only on some setup-speculation.

The last thing is Llama's Xtoxm-vote that seals the deal. Llama is clearly trying to distance from his buddy since he will likely be hammered, so that at least his buddy gains some cred and might be able to coast to victory. But we aren't falling for that, right guys?

__

I am therefore

expressing intent to hammer Llama

. If nothing new (and it would take something really new) arises until I post next time, I will hammer him.

Let's hammer him fast while the masons still have their heads up their rears, but not so fast that I'm confirmed scum.

[Llamarble]

His reasoning (except the logic says do X scumwall) is also very stabby and vaprous; he has been trying to find scumtells rather than to find scum.
That's pretty holistic though and require me to give another 873 examples.

[Llamarble]

I think Buttons/Nath is more likely than Tox/personwhoisn'tnath.
The roleblocker could have submitted both actions N2; if he got tracked targeting Grey he was boned anyway so why risk the other guy too?
So Buttons is 50% as likely to be scum because he's not the RB, but if we flip the RB he loses his roleinformation-shield.

And trying to get out of a consistent track record of voting/Fosing town while marking everyone left who could be scum as null and defending scum until it became unfeasible by saying "Oh I was just wrong look you've had some incorrect reads" is weaselicious.
The times he did vote Krazy were when
A: D1 after DRK voted; it looked like a wagon might start so he tosses his vote on in case things go wrong but does not provide an explanation for risk of driving the wagon and thereby increasing likelihood of things going wrong. Sheeping somebody to vote someone who hasn't been in your TOP 5 scumreads without any explanation of your own thoughts is a scum move.

B: D2 after Krazylynch seemed still inevitable despite his logicscumwall and Buttons' posting.

I'm fairly sure I mentioned I didn't like the case Nath made for Krazytown previously.
Ah, there it is; my ISO 39 mentions it. Other stuff overrode that concern for a long time.

As for the postgap thing, I mean in your ISO they have only a couple posts in between and there is nothing to explain how you float from you "not seeing the llama hate" to "llama is scummy." This suggests you aren't maintaining actual reads but rather the appearance of reads, similar to the D1 mysteryvote on Krazy.

Mute's tunneling is really bothering me; he's done little by way of attempting to figure the game out and just keeps attacking me.
And he seems to be desperate to get this day to end soon with weeks left until deadline.
And there was the "I THINK KRAZY IS FAKECLAIMING. VOTE LLAMA." D2 miserableplay.
At some point OMGUS is justified when a player's play has sucked too much to be an honest effort to find scum.
But I mislynched Bubbiddertown tunneling me with an abysmal case in Dilemma mafia.
And I have consistently had a townread on Mute each time I've reread. Blargh.

[Llamarble]

What? That was a comparison of alternatives.
I think Nath/Tox is the likeliest team but feel that Nath is more definite individually;
a Nath/Buttons team is more plausible to me than a tox team without Nath.

[Llamarble]

Huh, Mute is scum. Which means Nath probably isn't. How embarrassing.

Unvote

[Llamarble]

Okay, I'll ask the questions in thread then.

@Mod:
Would a roleblocked tracker see a "you do not receive information" message or a "your target went nowhere" message?
Would a mafia roleblocker be permitted to submit both a block and the faction's kill?

Buttons can be scum, but only if he is not the roleblocker.
Thus any team that includes him is 50% as likely as any team that does not (teams without him have 2 permutations while teams with him have 1).
Once we flip another mafia member, he'll either be confirmed town or as likely as anyone from a roleinfo perspective.

I'll be making a mute case soon. Townies tunnel sometimes but not for 4 gamedays while barely blinking.

[Llamarble]

Okay, Buttons still reads town to me and teams with him are half as plausible.
I recall seeing and buying good arguments Nath/Mute aren't scum together.
Which makes Tox buddy to whichever of them is scum. And he's hardly free of individual tells.
VOTE: Tox

[Llamarble]

Llama/Mute over Tox/Mute??? HEHEHAHAHAHEHA
Also "I'll eat my shoes if they aren't" sounds like bull.
I wish I were a machine-gun-dayvig right now.
Killing all 3 of Nath/Mute/Tox = winning.

[Llamarble]

@Those of you who think I'm scum:
How do you explain the fact that
A: I never wavered on Krazy and voted him even before he fakeclaimed
B: My suspicion on TBM went away mysteriously after N2
C: My suspicion of Pappums went away mysteriously after N3
We know the RB targeted Grey nights 1 & 2, so it's not like scum knew people did nothing by RBing them.
And if you think the setup is scumtracker + scumRB vs masons & doctor, there's no hope for you.

Believing I am scum requires you to buy a decision to absolutely gun down a buddy D2 instead of a town PR (with built in good excuse)...
While at the same time pointing out myself that not too much towncred should be assigned to people who helped lynch the scum.
There's wifom and then there's outright stupidity.

The cases made against me have been:
Mute's:
"llama isn't obvtown this game like 1105 let's lynch him!!"
I am a powerrole. Eating the nightkill as a powerrole is bad.
As long as I could get town to lynch my top scumread and not lynch me or my ~inno results derping it up some to protect myself was good play.

"lurkitylurk!" I wasn't caught up. Eventually I did catch up.

"llama is too sure about Krazy, he's probably bussing"
I was utterly certain of Krazy's guilt based on my night action.

"Llama's defending Xinescum because they're buddies!"
Heh.

"Llama's claim is convenient because he was under suspicion." You could have said this about anybody who claimed anything.
Also I still think it's ridiculous that you find Doc + masons vs RB more plausible than doc + masons + tracker vs RB.

"Sheepmarble lolol."
WTF? I have provided as much original reasoning as anyone in this thread and have frequently without prompting reread and reevaluated the game.

"You keep bringing up things you did that wouldn't make sense if you were scum. I call WIFOM." Oh for the love of god.

Nath's:
His is garbage too. I think I already dealt with it somewhere. If not I'll do that later.

Con's:
"Is overstating his confirmedness as town" Based on my experience with MS setups and the provability of my actions I was expecting agreement.

"Overcautiousness because I asked a rules question" I wanted to make sure my TBM result was def. legit.

"regrets" I remember thinking Hiraki might have some sort of knowledge confirming Pappums based on his "Pappums Obvtown" refrain. That was actually part of the reason I ended up lynching Xine over Pappums. Then when Xine flipped town I was like "darn it should have lynched the other guy" and didn't think about what I had noticed while targeting. I normally am very good about keeping things I've noticed in mind while making decisions. Oh well.

"Wanting Hiraki to claim second to last despite thinking he might be scum." When Hiraki proposed a massclaim I recalled his "Pappums obvtown" stuff and thought he might be a cop intending to drop a few innocent results to avoid riskofdeath, so I put him near the end of my list.

"Didn't express much suspicion of targets before targeting them" I reread without Bgg brainclouding N1 and picked Krazy for scumminess, avoiding Xine since I thought she might get vigged and waste my result. N2 I picked Buttons since he and Nath made efforts to lynch Grey over Krazy and at the time I found Nath townier. N3 I picked Cons because he was my suspicion before Xine and Xine's townflip caused a "darnit shouldn't have switched" reaction.

[Llamarble]

I actually think the case you made against me was a lot more reasonable than some;
The things you mentioned mostly had to do with situations where I hadn't been transparent with my thought process, so I understand the confusion they caused.

1105 was my game with masons and as you mentioned town was pretty powerful there, so that's more or less where I was coming from.
Also I've heard masons are considered about as powerful as a cop and I thought just cop+doc vs RB would be weak for a 13 player game.
999 surprises me though and I understand people accusing me of overstating confirmedness based on setup more now.

I want to go back and make extra sure NathMute isn't plausible.
I am currently leaning toward a tox/Nath team.
Mute has been a nuisance but I think he may be this game's Bub Bidderskins (guy who tunneled me in Dilemma mafia but we were both town).

[Llamarble]

Heh, I was explaining that I understand better now why people _don't_ have setup townreads on me.
Anyway, on to checking Mutenath again.

[Llamarble]

Gah, why did we rule that pair out...
There's just that 1 "BTW Nath and I make two people who suspect llama" post which I'll agree is good distancing if they're scum;
I wish there was more though.
Tox is a good lynch because Nath wants to lynch me over him and Mute wants to lynch me over him so odds are good one of them is CWing.
Assuming Buttontown, which is the safest assumption I can make based both on reads & roleinfo, leaves things very promising.
The one nagging issue is that Tox didn't want to lynch me, which seems vaguely suicidal for scum.

That post after I pointed out a quickhammer was a good result for scum where Nath shows up and says "I think I'mma hammer soon but I'll give it a day so I'm not 100% confirmed scum" is indeed among the more opportunistic posts ever, especially considering the plentiful time left until deadline.
That post and his logiclogiclogicvoteGreyIce posts give off extremely strong scumvibes.

Also

Please Prod Tox

At least if we hit scum today we are extremely likely to win since we'll always have confirmed townies alive.
Hit scum RB -> scum must kill me leaving the masons alive or I'll confirm someone overnight.
Hit goon -> buttons is confirmed town.

[Llamarble]

The one thing that really, really bothers me is that Tox
A: Treats me as obvtown
B: wants to go ahead and lynch Nathanael/Mute.
This plan would be suicide for him unless he could convince town to lynch me (declared obvtown by him),
Or lynch Buttons (inaccurately declared role-cleared by him), or Buttons is scum.
I don't like having to buy scum being willing to cheerfully march to their doom.

The only real individual scumtell from Tox was the VCA analysis that he planted on Cons/Hiraki.
MME pretty much just lurked.

I kind of want to lynch Nathanael for those epically scummy posts.

But then I end up having to buy one of Mute+Nath, which had that one uncomfortable post, or Buttonscum, or Toxscum anyway.
Yuck. I guess I should decide which of those possibilities is easiest to swallow.

[Llamarble]

Huh.

Unvote

Mute saying that makes me not really buy Tox+Mute (I think scum can't afford to bus right now), which makes me want a Nathlynch more than a Toxlynch.
I think.

[Llamarble]

Nath said he thought I was a likelier scumbuddy for Mute than tox. WITH MUTE. WTF. THAT IS NOT A TOWN GIVING A READ THEY BELIEVED IN.
I actually lean toward Nath's latest vote being bussing, but he could also just be going for a mislynch opportunity.
Tox is not scum without Nath.
And Nath went after me with SHEEPTACULAR reasoning.
Right after I pointed out that scum would have a way better chance of winning if they hammered me fast:

I am at this point convinced that Llama/Xtoxm are the remaining scum.

I totally agree with ConSp's case. Additionally, Xtoxm is trying to save Llama with statements-of-absolute ("He is obvtown") based only on some setup-speculation.

The last thing is Llama's Xtoxm-vote that seals the deal. Llama is clearly trying to distance from his buddy since he will likely be hammered, so that at least his buddy gains some cred and might be able to coast to victory. But we aren't falling for that, right guys?

__

I am therefore

expressing intent to hammer Llama

. If nothing new (and it would take something really new) arises until I post next time, I will hammer him.

"I believe other people's cases and llama is voting for somebody I think is scum! WHEEE!"

VOTE: Nathanael

Nobody has yet explained how they buy all the things they would have to buy for me to be scum,
yet people are still going like "Tox=llamabuddyDERP"

[Llamarble]

Nath did end up hammering Xine. And Krazy. But he found Hiraki's hammer of Bgg scummy enough to earn a vote.
I noticed while looking that up that my Xine vote corroborates the thought process I mentioned earlier.

Okay Hiraki, we'll see about Conspiracy later.
VOTE: Xine
Hopefully she got scared out of fakeclaiming by Krazy's spectacular lack of success.

I specifically stated that it was Hiraki's professed townread on Pappums that pushed me off lynching Pappums.
I thought that townread was likely based off role information (otherwise, considering there was no explanation given, I'd have totally ignored it).
So that's some proof for you that the explanations I gave in response to Con's case were real.

And we can add leaving Hiraki alive to the list of ridiculous things you have to believe if I'm scum.
(NKing investigative PR with potential unrevealed results = much higher priority than finishing the easily RBed doc off)

Do I need to rehash how scummy Nath's interactions with Krazy are?
Or how he's spent basically his entire career trying to lynch confirmed town with non insightful stock-scum reasoning?
Seriously, his case on Hiraki is "sheeping & quickhammer."
The most thought he put into a case was his elaborate logical decomposition of the Krazy situation,
which he leads off by saying "Krazy being scummy yesterday is explained away by him being a PR"
and generally uses to set seeds of Greyscum in people's minds while staying at MAXIMUM DISTANCE by using
"THE POWER OF LOGIC COMPELLED ME" as an excuse.
Or can we just lynch him based on how turbopportunisheep-scummy he is today?

[Llamarble]

Why is anyone not voting Nath?

[Llamarble]

Huh, deadline is actually fairly soon (26th)
Can we please have more Nath votes? I don't like lynching a player scum is okay with lynching.

[Llamarble]

I'm saying Nath is my top suspect and is voting Tox, which makes me uncomfortable lynching Tox.

[Llamarble]

A thing that really made me think Buttons was town was the "SCUM WOULD NEVER BE THIS STUPID" sequence where he defends Krazy.
But maybe that stuff actually just happened without his involvement (Buttons didn't seem to know about the PGOclaim and didn't post March 4-9).
The scumteam I'd buy as most likely to be disfunctional in that manner is Krazy/MME/Buttons.
And Buttons likes the Nath lynch I've been pushing.
And the masons like a Toxlynch, though they seem to think he's my buddy which means their judgement isn't really as useful to me.

VOTE: XTOXM
Let's see where this takes us.
I wish I had less read-ADD, but it's just been hard for me to laser in this game. My case on Nath was really convincing to me...
Oh well.

[Llamarble]

Huh, that was a hammer.

[Llamarble]

If Tox flips town my money is on Nath+Buttons.

I didn't notice there had been a Hiraki vote between the VC and my post until I looked back after.
Hooray for 4AM reduced competence.

I think it's plausible Button's "THE SCUM ARE MORONS!" Krazydefense D2 could have been real disappointment with his buddies.

And it would be stupid to lynch me tomorrow if Tox flips town;
Neither Mute nor Nathan could reasonably be my buddy so we should lynch buttons if people are wanting to lynch me.
But if you do I think Mute wins honorary scum for this game.

[Llamarble]

In a stunning turn of events, I was unable to track Nathanael last night. (roleblocked)
Since the last town I was in mishandled Lylo, I want this town to do it right.
When a player votes for another player, we wait a couple days and see if scum quickhammer.
If they do, we lose. If they don't, we know either voter or votee _must_ be scum,
which helps us analyze the game and make a better decision.
Do not place a vote if a vote is already in play unless you're voting someone who voted you until
no quickhammer has occurred and you have reviewed the game with new knowledge in mind.
If Conspiracy places a vote and there is no quickhammer within 48 hours or so, that player is confirmed scum.


I am fairly confident Nath is scum; the reasons are as they were yesterday.
If we lynch Nath and he flips RB, I'll either die at night or identify the last scum.
If we lynch Nath and he flips goon, Buttons is confirmed town so Mute is the scum roleblocker.
Same ideas hold if we get a scumflip out of Mute.
As I pointed out previously, scumteams with Buttons are also 50% as likely as scumteams without.
So Buttons is incorrect to lynch today from a maxing odds of victory perspective and nobody should vote him.

I may place a Nath vote later but I'm going to do a "Tox is conftown" reread first.

notes to self time: (yeah ATE but I feel revealing my thoughts is good for people reading me accurately so whatever)
This game has taught me never to think about mafia at 4am anymore.
I already knew my blitz chess strength is like 300-500 points lower when I get overtired,
and apparently my mafia clearthinking ability drops similarly, so next time I'll just sleep.
I also feel kind of bad about the Xine lynch since I basically forced myself to read her as scum since
my townreads thought she was scum,
If I died people would have thought I had a negative trackresult on her which could be disastrous if she really was scum,
And the alternative Conspiracy seemed possibly cleared by Hirakiroleinformation.

[Llamarble]

All scum have to do to arrange a quickhammer is
"if someone votes for a townie, wake up at 5:30 AM and set your online status to visible."
Daytalk isn't required. Scum had plenty of opportunity to set up quickhammering times overnight.

Yes, my reads have gone back and forth on a number of players.
It has already been proven that there is a scum roleblocker in the game.
Saying the fact that I got roleblocked somehow makes me guiltier is deeply moronic.

I'm not "orchestrating blind mice along."
I am pointing out obvious optimal lylo play guidelines that town from my last game failed to follow.

"BTW that's now two people (me and nath) that think your claim is too good to be true."
Is the only thing that makes me hesitant about Nathmute team.
Good distancing, but not unbelievable.

Anyway, Mute is scummy because:
"I think Krazy is clearly fakeclaiming scum for lousy reasons. VOTE: LLAMA"
He has not been trying to evaluate the game or puzzle solve at all;
His activities this game have consisted almost entirely of trying to twist everything I say to sound scummy.
I've seen bad town tunnel before, but not voting someone you're _convinced_ is fakeclaiming makes NO townsense, as I've said.

[Llamarble]

I am aware you unvoted Krazy to prevent a selfhammer.
I just can't imagine thinking somebody has fakeclaimed, unvoting them to prevent self-lynch, and then voting for someone else.

Anyway, I am pretty sure I want to lynch Nathaniel today, and if he flips scum I'll know your alignment tomorrow for sure regardless.

[Llamarble]

Well I guess we deserve to lose this game if Mute is town.
He has spent the entire game assuming I'm scum and trying to come up with reasons for it being true.
Unfortunately I'm not sure if he's fake scumhunting or just a VI in confirmation bias mode,
so I'm not going to crossvote immediately in hopes he's town and takes his vote off.

None of that wall made any sense or demonstrated any likelihood of me being scum.
I was utterly steadfast in my conviction that Krazy was scum and voted him BEFORE the claim shenanigans,
which means I would have to have planned my tracker claim from the beginning with no idea how it would interact with town PRs.
Same goes for my changes in stance on Buttons & Conspiracy.
Mute, you have never so much as attempted to explain why you believe all the ridiculous things you'd have to believe if I were scum.
EXPLAINING HOW TO PLAY LYLO IS NOT SCUMMY.
I am not going to vote Nath right now, because simply waiting will tell me whether you're scum or not while voting Nath stakes all hopes on Nath/Mute scumteam. In Lovers multiball, we had team A voting person B and team C voting person D in lylo. This is dumb because town autoloses unless the team is A+C, B + D, A + D, or B + C. Turned out it was A + C, but nobody was listening when I said to take that into account in their reads.

[Llamarble]

"Okay, you voted him, big whoop. That still doesn't diminish anything about your claim as tracker and how krazy claiming cop tested the waters for counter claims. It, in fact, doesn't discredit that at all. I know there's a logical fallacy term for that, to use one instance to disprove something unrelated but in the same instance. what that is exactly is beyond me."
Makes absolutely no sense of any kind. What exactly are you saying happened?

The difference between scumhunting and what you've been doing is that scumhunting is reading the game and trying to figure out which players being scum best explains events. What you have been doing is picking a player in one of your very first posts, then arguing they are scum regardless of how the situation changes, reframing the case to try and justify your scumread on me every time new information arises. And you've done it very badly.

I pointed out several situations that are implausible if I am scum. Ignoring them and continuing on is just bad play.
I can assure you, if somebody says "it is implausible that I am scum because X,"
I will investigate X and either explain why X could have been faked or unvote.
(see me not thinking NathMute are the scumteam after Conspiracy's point for an example of town reevaluating a read in the face of evidence)

Using one game to justify another:
I saw town do something that is unwise in a game of mine and do not want the same thing to happen in this game.

Overall you're kind of like a creationist who says "sure there's bones but we don't have all the bones so you're scum whee!"

[Llamarble]

Whee, I'm still alive! P(Mutescum) increases every moment I'm not dead.
Then again several players seem to simply not be around.
Oh well, we'll see what's going on soon enough.

[Llamarble]

I would indeed have expected scum to make a move to quicklynch by now if Mute was town,
And at this point we are definitely going to lose if Mute is town regardless as I see no chance he'll ever vote for scum.
VOTE: Mute
Tomorrow I shall marshall my reasons why I am town and he's scum, including an analysis of both possible buddy pairings.

@Buttons: I thought Tox could be scum with you with your "KRAZY WOULD HAVE TO BE A MORON TO FAKECLAIM HERE" being honest irritation with your buddies. I found a Nath + Buttons scumteam less likely to be dysfunctional enough to let Krazy hang himself D2. I also noticed that although MME was gone much of the time, him not getting replaced until much later in the game was making me think he had been active at night or somesuch. And Tox + you as a scumteam resolved the "having to buy Tox coming out and advocating a strategy guaranteeing him to lose" quandary. It avoided having to believe in Mute + Nath or Mute bussing Tox. Overall it was a case of "4AM retarded epiphany syndrome" similar to when I voted Xine.

[Llamarble]

I am voting you because I don't think you're town and because if you're town we're going to lose. That's how lylo crossvoting works.
I won't be "making reasons to think you're scum" tomorrow, I'll be marshalling them.
As in organizing things I've already noticed in order to demonstrate to Conspiracy and whoever else is town that you are mafia.

"Using information that arises through the game to add to my read and case of you"
IS EXACTLY WHAT SCUM DO. THEY BUILD CASES TO PUSH MISLYNCHES INSTEAD OF TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE GAME.
"Using information that arises through the game to change your reads on every player"
IS WHAT TOWN DO. WE ARE USING INFORMATION AVAILABLE TO US TO FIGURE OUT WHO IS SCUM, SO OUR READS ARE MUTABLE AS WE THINK ABOUT THE GAME.

Sure, town players push lynches on people they're suspicious of. But they also try to figure out what's going on in the game overall.
Mute has spent the entire game trying to lynch me while paying absolutely minimal attention to who could be a buddy / what is going on overall.

[Llamarble]

Huh, that was an alarming Buttons post; Only purposes I can see for it are:
A. Telling Nath he's here so they can QH
B. Mediating to make it look like he's not a mutebuddy.

I don't think I've ever seen a post asking disagreeing players to shut up before when the fate of the game rests on figuring out which of the two is scum.

[Llamarble]

BTW Mute voting me while thinking Krazy is fakeclaiming makes NO townsense.

How doesn't it?

I'm voting my biggest scum candidate

, and taking note of others I'm curious about.

Nope. Been the town doctor since I got my role PM. No pick and choose. Krazy is definitely, definitely, definitely scum.

... Mute... uh... yeah, your logic blows chunks.

I'd go into this long diatribe about how that's not the case but my track record with life shows otherwise that my logic is rarely the same as others.

During this D2 post Mute's vote is on me, not Krazy, implying I was higher on his suspect list.
Even though he claimed to be _convinced_ Krazy was HORSETNT fakeclaiming, he supposedly believed me to be more likely scum than Krazy.
This makes NO EFFING SENSE if Mute is town.
A strong belief that a player is lying about their role should, in hypotownmute's mind, utterly outweigh the type of feeble garbage Mute had spewed to that point.

[Llamarble]

Okay, I'm going to put down my simplest and strongest proof of me being town before I go to bed and

UNVOTE MUTE

rather than leave my vote unattended overnight. The purpose here is to demonstrate clearly the effects of my tracking results on my play:

D1, I was somewhat suspicious of Krazy's slot and listed it in my scumpile.
My first post of D2, I have received "Krazy targeted DRK" and am pretty much convinced he's scum. Hence:

Yay, the day returned just as I did!
DRKtown & BGGtown make me think Krazy is indeed scum. DRK was very suspicious of Krazy and then died. Krazy spent all day tunneling town and attacking people I have town reads on without really explaining. He did explain why bgg was scummy, but that was a pretty easy situation for scum to fake a case in. And he was in the middle of the bggwagon, as scum often are.

At the moment I think GreyIce is piss-poor town, but if bgg flips town (and Xine by relation) then GreyIce would be in my top 3 with Llamarble and Hiraki.

This, coupled with tunneling on bgg looks like a plan to lynch the easy townie and follow it up by attacking other players all of whom look town to me. I don't see how a bgg townflip exonerates Xine at all; she was hardly reluctant to lynch him. Greedling didn't do anything except wagon Xine though (a reason I found him suspicious yesterday), so Krazyscum doesn't necessarily imply Xinescum regardless.

VOTE: Krazy

And after Krazy claims, proving conclusively he's a liar rather than some town PR who targeted the night-death, I write

I don't see how any cop in their right mind would investigate PGOdoc. I find mafia risking a roleblock on a claimed possible PGO weird too. Unless RBing a PGO does not result in death (because of the RB), in which case it would make perfect sense.

I still find Grey infinitely more likely to be town than Krazy regardless.

I don't know what motivated the copclaim out of the gate D2 though. Maybe setting up bussing or something. Neruz's last is weird too. Who votes for somebody and then says "if he flips scum, go ahead and lynch me!" Anyway,

CONFIRM VOTE: KRAZY

I never show even slight doubt Krazy is scum for the duration of the day.
Having proved N1 action, on to N2:

My reads shortly before N2 (Woo my townalliance was all town):

TOWN ALLIANCE OF DOOM:
Llama
Grey
Neruz
Hiraki

Town:
Nathanael
Pappums

Probably town:
Xine (some of her stuff just feels forthright to me; I guess I'll go into some detail at some point)
MME

Scumteam:
TBM
Mute
Krazy

I have a very very good feeling about this.

But then after N2, when I have been informed TBM visited noone:

Yay, we were right!
Though I suppose it may have been impossible to be wrong between TBM/Grey.
I've not really been seeing Xinescum, but I'll keep reading her and trying.

I read TBM again and I can see the misguided town angle for him.

Currently I'm pondering MME & Mute & have to look more at Xine.
And I need to check on my Hirakitown read.

I soon disagree with Xine on her scumread of TBM & list TBM as "Likely Town" in my next scumlist.
This complete readflip on TBM was the result of role information I received.

And finally N3.
Before (I also had put conspiracy scummiest on some previous lists, but here's a clear demonstration right before night):

It's a logical analysis of actions vs. what looks like town thinking situation, so I've had problems making up my mind.
My best guess for a non Xine team is Conspiracy / MME or Conspiracy / Hiraki.

After:

I'D LIKE TO SOLVE THE PUZZLE

VOTE: XTOXM

SCUMBUDDY: NATHANAEL

Though Hiraki could replace one of them.

Poof!
Scumread on Conspiracy has vanished in favor of the other players who are now twice as likely due to my "did not visit" result.

Clearly, my reads reflect my results.
If you want to believe I'm scum, you have to believe I've been preparing this fakeclaim the entire game and utterly trashed my buddy D2.
Scum just don't do things like preparing a tracker claim the whole game through because there are all sorts of ways the setup can wreck that plan.
And scum don't just obliterate their buddies for no reason while minimizing towncred gained by telling them to fakeclaim.

Mute has continually failed to address the fact that these two aspects of my behavior fundamentally do not make sense from scum.

[Llamarble]

Town investigative power roles would not counterclaim unless it was necessary to keep Grey from getting lynched, and it wasn't.
Also I came out blasting Krazy before there was any possibility of counterclaimage.
So scum had ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA what manner of town investigative power roles existed at that point.

[Llamarble]

Huh, I suppose at least one of Nath/Buttons has to be scum and therefore this Nath vote on Buttons can't result in a QH.
If Buttons and Nath are both on at the same time and make /Notquickhammer posts it would be useful (Mute would then be truly confirmed scum to me).
The logic behind Nath's Buttonvote is accurate from his perspective if he's town, but still leaves the overall lynch decision up to Conspiracy.
Assuming no quickhammers in the near future, we'll be able to entirely rule out Me + Mute & Nath + Buttons.

[Llamarble]

IMPORTANT NOTE: DO NOT AT ANY TIME DECLARE V/LA WITH A SPECFIC END DATE IN THREAD OR MENTION YOU'RE GOING OUT FOR THE NIGHT AND WILL BE BACK IN X HOURS.

I will assume your scum trying to arrange a time when both members of the scum team will be online.

I got called out unexpectedly tonight / Post by afternoon EST of sunday.

Ha.

Conspiracy will decide who gets lynched today;
whomever he votes we all should vote since if he votes town we're losing no matter what.

I would like for Mute and I and Nath/Buttons to go on at the same time and /notquickhammer to unambiguously disprove those pairs.
Then if we lynch Mute and he flips goon, I'm confirmed town and Buttons is confirmed town and we automatically win.
If Mute flips RB, I'll know who the scum is tomorrow (or be dead)

[Llamarble]

VOTE: Mute
Scum not having QHed by now just would not make any kind of sense, and I'd feel strange winning a game where scum had forever to just come on and finish it anyway.
Mute & I would have QHed Buttons by now if we were scum. We have both been around and I most certainly would organize such things as scum.

So (for everyone) the teams are down to:
Mute + Nath OR
Mute + Buttons OR
Llama + Nath OR
Llama + Buttons.
Nobody should be considering any other teams plausible at this point.

[Llamarble]

I wonder if he actually thinks he's been misconfirmed as town and is excited to laugh at how silly scum being confirmed town is; seems doubtful.
More likely he is just faking the "only town can believe that they're confirmed town" angle.

He sure enjoyed jesting with Grey about how it feels to be roleblocked; I guess he couldn't resist self-congratulation there either.

[Llamarble]

At some point coming up I'm going to make my ultimate Mute case with links back to places where I established different reasons Mute is scum & I'm town so I can lay them all out nice & concisely. Adding a few to refer back to here.

POINT A: Mute was too certain of Krazyscum; the reasoning he gave for his beliefs would not have made a townie so certain.
Mute stated he believed Krazy's claim was OMGSCUMTACULAR or something to that effect.
His initial reason for voting Krazy is that he thinks Grey claiming PGO or doc sounds like a townie thing to do.
Later he says the reason was that Krazy came out with his first guilty.
Even if that weren't a reasonable thing for a cop to do, thinking somebody is misplaying the cop role is NOT grounds for RAWROBVSCUM.
Mute's reasoning clearly did not convince him Krazy was scum. He was bussing in order to gain towncred.

POINT B: NK analysis.
DRK was suspicious of Mute D1 for believing a scummy player might be a jester,
pointing out scum would be more apt to believe such a thing because they know the reason for the scumminess isn't 'cuz he's scum'.
DRK also pointed out that Mute in subsequent posts HoSed Bgg and said he didn't find Bgg at all suspicious.
DRK died N1.

Neruz had TBM and Mute (also Xine) as high suspects for Krazybuddies.
At one point Mute accuses me of bussing him and Neruz notes that this is a good catch. He also said:

The quote suggests strongly that Mute is scumbuddies with Krazy, because if Mute thinks Krazy is fakeclaiming, then he thinks Krazy is scum, so why is he voting Llmarble?

Neruz died N2.

Grey's death N3 was presumably to eliminate the obvtown doc, so I won't read into it beyond that.

The scum killed Hiraki rather than Pappums. Hiraki had stated _certainty_ that one of Mute or Tox was scum.
He also said "Mute is attacking horribly, this isn't town."
Sure, he was also suspicious of me, but Conspiracy was moreso with "Llama do you really not get why we think you're scummy?"
Hiraki died N4.

Everyone who dies likes the idea of lynching Mute. Whee.
Some of those points the NKed players made against Mute were very good and I'll link them when I collect my whole case together.

[Llamarble]

Okay Mute, go ahead and vote Buttons then.
When I don't quickhammer, scumteam possibilities get reduced to
Mute + Nath OR
Mute + Buttons OR
Llama + Buttons

Which will help Conspiracy make his decision.

[Llamarble]

(Mute's logic is horrible, but he's scum so I'm not worried about a horribly logicked vote so much as ruling out another scumteam (me + Nath))

[Llamarble]

Whatever, just vote Buttons, I won't quickhammer, and we'll have proved I'm not scum with Nath. OK?

[Llamarble]

But you supposedly think he's confirmed scum.
So why not?

[Llamarble]

Because what I'm saying makes objective sense. If you believe somebody is confirmed scum, you should not be worried about voting them.

[Llamarble]

Well this way, if you lynch me and I flip scum you can get your buttons lynch tomorrow for sure.

[Llamarble]

Well I was hoping to manipulate you into voting Buttons so I could prove Nath and I aren't scum together, but oh well.

Nathan votes, no 2-scum quickhammer = Nathan confirmed town.

Wrong. The scum have a total of 2 votes. So a quickhammer will only happen if a townie votes for another townie.
All we rule out here is that Buttons and Nath are both town.
We rule out that you and I are both town by similar logic.

So Conspiracy has 2 50/50 chances to make, except I have role information that makes Buttons a bad lynch.
I'm a bad lynch too for less provable reasons (the setup isn't really complete without me, I would have had to perform a gamespanning evil plot, etc etc.)

[Llamarble]

Right, my goal was to eliminate llama+nath as a possible scumteam, thereby confirming me as town to Buttons.
Then Buttons could vote Mute with me, reducing the possibilities to me + Buttons or Nath + Mute.
Actually we can achieve the same thing if Buttons votes Mute and Nath doesn't hammer;
that would confirm Nath as town to Mute and force Mute to vote buttons or me interchangeably,
And after Mute's Buttonvote and my nonhammer it would come to the same thing.

So TBM, if you're feeling gamestaking-confident of me being town,
Putting your vote on Mute would reduce the possible scumteams to you & me vs Nath + Mute.
I suppose I could put a vote on Nath to accomplish the same thing as well, but if you do it I don't have to deal with any risk, hehe.

[Llamarble]

Tox+Llama is the scumteam. I'll to eat my shoes if they aren't.

Heh

[Llamarble]

Okay, I think Nath is scum off some more reading.
I think the thing to do now is just organize my Mute case and wait for Conspiracy.
Then if Conspiracy shows interest in voting someone other than Mute, I'll make my Nath vote and hopefully make it a decision between Nathmute and Llamabuttons.

[Llamarble]

COLLECTED CASE AGAINST MUTE:

Holistic stuff:
He has spent the entire game tunneling me. There's no evidence of him reconsidering or trying to understand what's going on.
He is not trying to figure the game out but rather to push my lynch based on anything that comes up.

Specific things that town don't do and/or scum usually do:
Lining up lynches & attacking soft town targets
Having me as his top suspect while being highly confident Krazy was fakeclaiming
This post shows the nightkills make a lot of sense if Mute is scum.
The same post goes over Mute being too sure of Krazyscum.

Voting Record:
Ant was on that abysmal D1 Neruzobvtown wagon (with Nath, heh)
After that Mute's on me in every single votecount, haha. (He voted and unvoted Krazy inbetween a pair)

Posts 84 up to and including 90 of DRK's ISO explain:
Mute thought there might be a jester (because he saw scummy behavior and knew bgg wasn't scum)
Mute wanted to keep bgg around for a bit and then lynch him later. (Very convenient for scum considering Xinetown was the d1 lynch alternate.)
Mute's inconsistent stance on bgg (HoS let's lynch d2 -> not a scum candidate)


I suppose I'll make similar posts for the reasons I'm town and Nath is scum.

[Llamarble]

Ugh, I lost my post I was writing. Starting over:

REASONS I'M TOWN:

Holistic:
I have done many things that could be spun as scummy (flippant voting, antagonism, etc) which scum would avoid for fear of lynch.
I do so because I am confident my towniness will become apparent if I just play to my wincon and try to lynch scum (also NK avoidance D1-3 heh).

I have produced significant original scumhunting content and have been transparent about my thoughtprocess while generating it.
I have cared significantly about situations that turned out to be a choice between lynching two townies.
(What scum would care whether we lynched bgg or Xine D1? If anything scumllama wants the townlynch he's not on to happen so he can call it a CW)
Same for Pappums vs Xine D3. Go read my posting there and tell me with a straight face it's not town trying to figure things out.

Setup:
Town would be underpowered in this setup were it just doc/masons vs RB and to make it worse a scum PRclaim would be very easily believed.
The RB would also be almost completely superfluous;
for it to ever be relevant the RB would need to target the doctor on a night where the doctor protected the killed guy.
Thus N1 the roleblocker would be useful 1/9 * 1/12 = 1% of the time. It gets better later, but not much.
Remember Grey claimed D1 in this game, which amped the odds up significantly, so don't go all counterexampley.
So I challenge everyone to recall the last mini normal you saw with an almost completely useless power role.

Roleclaim:
Here I clearly demonstrate the effect my tracker results had on my reads.
If I were scum I'd have had to be planning this the whole game AND gotten lucky on the setup for it to be viable.
Anyone seen a devious whole game PRclaimplan blasting a buddy to death along the way with NO GUARANTEE it would be even remotely helpful?

Krazy:
I, more than any other player excepting Grey, was responsible for Krazy's lynch D2.
When you're scum, you don't want your buddies lynched because that is how you lose.
Utterly trashing a buddy D2 _While_ pointing out scum might be bussing for towncred would be an abysmally low percentage play for scum.

[Llamarble]

10 VTs against 3 goons is heavily scum-favored, so town gets PRs to compensate.
A masonpair and a doc and 7 VTs vs 3 goons would be somewhat weaker than typical town power expectations on MS.
Also giving scum a roleblocker in that setup would be totally bizarre as explained in my above post.

The actual setup of doc + masonpair + tracker vs goon + RB + ? is very nice.
Tracker's value is enhanced by being able to catch the RB or the shooter and the RB now has 2 targets.

[Llamarble]

A couple relevant posts I've made against Nath:
Here I cover Nath's egregiously opportunistic "i'mma hammer llama" and his "llama+Mute likelier than tox+Mute."
Here I cover Nath's interaction with Krazy.
This covers some other points.

[Llamarble]

Ball's in your court, mister Conspiracy.

[Llamarble]

I realized last night before bed that although my hammer was obviously a bad decision,
there's no scummotive for it (assuming Buttons is my only plausible buddy) since the decision was between Nath/Tox and of the two Tox was quite convinced I was town.

[Llamarble]

I am voting Mute.
If so instructed, I will vote Nath.
If it's a choice between lynching Buttons and lynching me, I will vote Buttons since though I think he's town he's not confirmed.
I would probably yell at you a lot and would seriously consider voting Nath anyway just to prove it's either Mute-Nath or me+Buttons.
I do think my reads are better than yours considering I have significantly more information than you (both my own alignment and my result on buttons).

If you're planning to lynch me, my vote can do no harm if I'm scum so you _must_ at least give me the opportunity to rule out two of the possible scumpairs by voting either Mute or Nath before considering a vote on me.

Conspiracy, if you are currently considering any scumteams other than:
Llama + TBM
Llama + Nath
Mute + TBM
Mute + Nath
You should not be. The other scumteams have had _days_ to quickhammer someone.

What about my case on Mute is a scummy thing I did myself?

I know there's an RB because Grey got blocked N1 & N2 and I got blocked last night.
I also know there's one goon. It seems reasonable the third mafia is a goon;
A rolecop would make me too powerful + a mason would've been shot sooner & Krazy shot DRK N1 so there's not a ninja.

I've never seen an investigation immune GF in a game with no investigative roles. It is at least a rare thing.
And a near-worthless RB would be even weirder.
At a _minimum_ you have to admit it would be highly unusual and thus believing me scum makes the setup less plausible.

There absolutely was a Nath/Tox decision to be made.

Not very nice CS.

Wut?

So guys, do we want to give Mute the last vote?
Right now it will be:
Nath (3) - TBM, Llam, Xtox
Xtox (3) - CS, Hiraki, Nath
Guess we can't do a thing about it.

And I approve of the extension, easter is a busy time.

So while I'll agree my Tox hammer, which was not supposed to be a hammer, was a bad 4AM decision,
There was no scummotive for it unless you think I'm scum with Nath.

You are throwing out Mute+Nath team based on a single post when everything else about it makes sense.

[Llamarble]

*Buttons or Nath

[Llamarble]

Conspiracy, before placing a vote please let whoever you were about to vote for vote someone. Then after hammer (can only happen if that person was town so no loss) or nonhammer we rule out half the possible teams.

[Llamarble]

Hm, we actually only can rule out one team per crossvoting; I guess I was confused.
CS has less information than anyone here, but we need his vote to lynch scum.
I think the correct move here is for us to narrow it down to two pairs and then have CS choose between the pairs.
So I'll go first and eliminate the possibility of Mute + Buttons.

VOTE: Nathanael

[Llamarble]

Now we wait awhile & see if Mute + Buttons hammer.

Buttons should by all means be voting Nath; Nath is confirmed scum to buttons.

[Llamarble]

I think you and Nath are the scumteam. Therefore a hammer on Nath will result in a scumflip, bringing town a long way toward _winning_ the game.

Me and the other townie who isn't CS each know the scumteam to be one of 2 possibilities.
Conspiracy is working with 4 possibilities.
Also I have tracking data on Buttons.

[Llamarble]

Right now I am expecting:
Nath to vote me.
Buttons to vote Nath.
Mute or buttons to type a post saying /notquickhammer.

This will rule out Buttons & Mute as the scumteam. Or I'm wrong and we'll lose.

P.E. Mute, your logic is appalling. But I suppose I shouldn't be expecting scum to be coherent.
Anyway, Buttons _SHOULD_ vote Nath because Nath is confirmed scum to Buttons.
So if your vote stays in place afterward, fine. We'll have established you and Buttons aren't both scum,
which is the point of this exercise.

[Llamarble]

Haha, oops.
Anyway, Nath and Mute are now confirmed the scumteam to me! Hooray!

[Llamarble]

Remaining possible teams (from CS's perspective):
Llama + Buttons
Llama + Nath
Mute + Nath

TBM, are you confident enough of me being town to rule out me & Nath scumteam?
If yes, next step is for us both to vote Mute. With no QH from Nath, that will leave you and I vs Mute + Nath as the only possible scumteams.

After that it will really really be up to conspiracy, though I'll be certainly willing to answer Con's questions & respond to cases, etc.

[Llamarble]

Excellent, moving forward;
VOTE: Mute

[Llamarble]

[Llamarble]

whoah, you were town?

[Llamarble]

Yeah seriously, this game should have ended a long time ago. I spent a lot of unnecessary effort this week...

[Llamarble]

Oh well, I forced through the lynch on the guy who was confirmed scum to me today.
Worst thing I did this game was vote tox. I was absolutely serious when I said I'm not going to late-night post anymore.

[Llamarble]

deadthread link?

[Llamarble]

I suppose we should wait for exe though...
Or did he give you guys permission?

[Llamarble]

Haha, I even gave them an instruction manual...
And they wouldn't even have needed to QH. Buttons could just have voted Mute or Nath could have voted me anytime.
Instead they voted each other for some reason and let Mute and I make like 50 posts each.

I definitely would have tracked Mute, that actually could have won it for town... heh.

[Llamarble]

What was the action-funny that would have confirmed TBMscum?

[Llamarble]

Oh I knew that was allowed. I don't think that's abnormal either.

[Llamarble]

I guess. In Jersey Shore Mafia I was an RB and could kill/RB even with 2 of us left, so it wasn't new to me.

[Llamarble]

Interesting that the two people trying to sell Krazytown D2 were his buddies.
Everyone else just laughed and blasted him, hehe.
Miracle of towniness indeed. How did all you folks who didn't have him as confirmed scum figure it out?

[Llamarble]

Man, I bet I caught a lot of deadthread rage for hammering tox... Can't wait to see that.

[Llamarble]

I did indeed have town on mute up until he started being confirmed scum.
Making post 1412 felt pretty awesome, but oh well.

[Llamarble]

Dead QT was excellent, hehe.
I do like being a VT.
Weighing "Buttons is half as likely as anyone else to be scum" due to role information against "Buttons is scummy" was a messy issue.
I felt like I absolutely should not lynch him unless somebody else flipped RB or more role information came up.
I suppose I'll do it that way again in the future and most of the time it should be the right move.

[Llamarble]

I suppose that's true.
But just so everyone knows, I never assumed TBM was confirmed town; merely confirmed nonRB and thus likely town.
So not explicitly stating the rules had no effect on the outcome.

I thank Exe for a good job all around. I liked the votecount quotes.