Mini 1121: Nexusville Mafia.

[Setael]

Hello all. I'm reading the thread and should be done by mid-day tomorrow.

[Setael]

OK I just finished reading but don't have time to post, as I have hot V-Day plans.

I would like to say

<b>unvote</b>

and also, Saint has excellent taste in movies.

Everything else will have to wait for tomorrow.

[Setael]

Grrr... messed up the tags. It's been awhile.

[b]unvote[/b]

[Setael]

Oh hell.

Remind me not to post when I don't have enough time.

[Setael]

First, Nameless - you just said you'd be willing to lynch me/q21 right now. If you've mentioned suspicion of q21 before that post could you please point to it for me?

Second, my scum list is Ice, Silavor/Pie and Neko in that order. Apologies in advance for the wall.

ICEninja was the first one to ping the scumdar. In his first post, he casts suspicion on WMC for what seemed pretty obviously a joke when I read it (I'll get into the later claim that it was a trap... later) and then once it earns him two votes, he backpeddles saying he only thought it was strange and he didn’t say it was scummy. This feels false since his post certainly intended to cast suspicion. Who cares if you SAID it was scummy? It was certainly implied. He also says “I'm glad others are noting that this is suspicious” which is clearly manipulation (and the result he wanted, obviously).

Silavor/Pie puts a 2nd vote on weapons for being jumpy and defensive. This seems off since Weapon had every reason to be jumpy and defensive after Ice’s accusation. Could definitely be an attempt to draw attention away from Ice’s wagon. It gets worse when Silavor/Pie says he was being sarcastic when he voted weapons “for being jumpy, defensive, using IIoA as a scumtell on page 1, and because it's still RVS." I don’t see how he could’ve intended sarcasm, since Weapons WAS being defensive. More likely he was using the RVS statement to distance himself from the accusation, possibly to avoid negative attention.

Neko then validates Silavor/Pie’s statement that he was being sarcastic. This is really scummy. Even if he was being sarcastic with the RVS statement, he clearly wasn't being sarcastic when he accused Weapons of being jumpy and defensive. Makes no sense for town-Neko to back up Silavor/Pie here.

Darth then defends Ice pretty blatantly (pointed out soon after by Nameless). It's unlikely the two are scum together - I can't imagine a scum buddy being comfortable doing this.

Silavor/Pie’s post 44 also seems scummy. He says “I’d just like to point out” followed by a noncommittal post explaining someone else’s reasoning (why not let them do it themself?) The whole thing feels like verbiage for “I really want everyone to like me so please don’t take this the wrong way”.

This is where Weapons posts that the contradiction was a trap he set. This makes no sense at all - first where it seemed like a joke and second with the timing of how everything went down. Why would he say that we'd all missed something like he did (which is also more likely if it was a joke we missed) - and why draw attention to it like this if it was a trap? His timing for saying it was a trap is off, too. He's under pressure, being wagoned and this seems more like a desperate measure. I'm on the fence about this. Maybe scum for making up the story or maybe town who thought that was the best way to derail a townie wagon or maybe he really did plan it as a trap (if so, it's the worst one ever).

He then says “I would also call silavor scum, but his last point was quite good about implosion/mb53.” This is garbage, as it’s the first time Weapons has mentioned silavor at all, he gives no reason for thinking he’s scum and instead says his last point was good. Are we to assume he’s agreeing with Zdenek’s post 38 accusing silavor? Or is it because silavor had just voted weapons? It also is ridiculous because I see absolutely nothing in the post Weapons is referring to that gives Weapons reason to go from scum read to town read on silavor. In fact, that post of silavor’s is really scummy. At this point, Weapons is either a really bad town player or a really bad scum player. Not sure which atm.

Post 57 reads like scum distancing. Neko saying Ice is going to get on his nerves and that he’s making mountains out of molehills - distancing without attacking at all. Then Ice declares that Neko’s response to the “weak jab” reads as town.

Ice then posts calling out mongoose for voting weapons without giving reason and then gives implosion a free pass for posting a scum list with no reasoning. Instead he focuses on asking why nameless was listed as scummy. If he were really scum hunting (rather than scum pretending to do so) I think he'd also have called out Implosion here. He also says he agrees with what neko is saying so he doesn't find him scummy. Since when is someone not scum because they agree with you? This free pass is very suspicious.

Nameless post 94 seems really protown, especially toward the weak weapons wagon and how he calls out neko

So then ice says “I think Saint is mildly scummy due to his predecessor and partially because of his all over the place posting.” This follows Zedenek having added a vote to Saint. This is subtle wagon pushing and keeping yourself open to hammer a townie. Also, what is scummy about posting several posts the way he did, and how is it “all over the place”? Has this always bothered you, or are you just making friends with KTS? Or just looking for a reason to hammer a townie? Ironically, ice then posts again (so all over the place and scummy!) to add a little umph to his future Saint vote. Does this bring him up from mildly scummy, ice? You can probably vote him soon without looking too suspicious right? Check.

So then ice says there's a connection between implosion and saint (he doesn't say what the connection is of course – just sets up a future lynch of saint if implosion flips scum. Or vice versa. Check and check.)

After Saint defends himself, ice says he's now totally fine with a lynch of saint or implosion (surprise!). Fast jump from “mildly scummy” to lynchable eh ice? Nice that you can safely be on both leading wagons too! (Check.)

I hate the Saint wagon. I'm not seeing it and really don't see scum claiming vanilla the way over did. I have plenty of other suspicions/town reads of other players, but for now my vote's on Ice.

[b]vote: ICENinja[/b]

Not sure why I can't get the tags to work. Meh.

[Setael]

Yep, BBCode was disabled. Thanks.

Ice then posts calling out mongoose for voting weapons without giving reason and then gives implosion a free pass for posting a scum list with no reasoning. Instead he focuses on asking why nameless was listed as scummy.

I gave him a free pass? I thought the list he provided was scummy, and presented reasons why. You're seriously misrepresenting what happened here.

Not really. When you first posted about Implosion's list you said nothing that indicated you thought it was scummy in the least. Instead, you just wondered about his placement of Nameless. Here is what you said:

Regarding implosion's list, I feel like his positioning of nameless is extremely suspect. Why did you put nameless down as one of the scummiest? I can't find anything suspicious that he's done, and I can't find anything besides a random vote against him in anything you've said. You seemed to arbitrarily put him down there. Can you explain what he has done that you find scummy? Your stance against mongoose is fully justified and I agree with it, but like nameless, you haven't said anything about over9000.

If you thought it was scummy that Implosion posted a list at all, why didn't you say so here instead of responding to the list like you did with no mention of thinking it shouldn't have been posted? This whole analysis you provide of Implosion's list actually seems to indicate that you're taking it seriously and have no problem with it being posted.

It's not until after neko says it's bad that you chime in with a "yeah, me too." Even then, you don't go after implosion at all, you just say you won't be making a list and then you give reasons why you won't. Here's what you say about it at this point (still not actually saying it's scummy to make a list- your point seems to be more that they're unnecessary at this point than scummy.

I, as well, will not be putting forth a comprehensive list. Those are meant for replacements and games in deadlocks. I shouldn't even need to point out a list of who I feel is scummy at the moment, as anyone who has read through my posts should have a good idea of who I suspect.

So not only are you following neko like a lapdog, you never did say it was scummy and then you tried to throw suspicion on me for saying I "seriously misrepresented" what happened.

I admit that I found Saint increasingly suspicious as time went on. His initial replacement in was alright (albeit annoying), but the quality of his posts really started to drop off. Also, others pointed things out that I hadn't spent enough time considering (such as his SK accusation), which impacted my point of view.

As time went on? What time? Monday at midnight you found him mildly scummy for meh reasons (like because he posted more than once upon replacing in. Right.)

Less than 2 hours later

you're ready to lynch him. How is that "as time went on"?

Mon Feb 14, 2011 11:59 pm
I still thing implosion is extremely scummy. I think Saint is mildly scummy due to his predecessor and partially because of his all over the place posting.

Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:52 am
I'm totally fine for a lynch of either Saint or implosion.

There are 6 posts between these 2, two of which are yours and none of which have any substantial content. The only ones about Saint at all are Saint's defense. That's QUITE a jump. Clearly, it wasn't you slowly being convinced by others' compelling arguments over time like you're trying to spin it as. Instead it's you paving the way for your place on the Saint wagon. (Because you're scum and he's a townie, see? It all makes sense.)

[Setael]

For all I know, Ice is the only one who has read any of my posts.

@ Nameless, you say you're "noticing me". How about an opinion about my posts? Any merit? If not, why? I get why you thought q21 was scummy, but I think what he actually was is lazy. He didn't answer questions, didn't do much. He thought if arguments were bad he could just ignore them. Lazy and stupid. Not much I can do about that, and I'm not suspicious of anyone's scum read on him for it. I am, however, suspicious that you're trying to coast through with just that. I don't think what you've pointed out on him is enough to be so confident my slot is scum, especially without saying a word about anything I've posted.

Did anyone even look at the timing of Ice's posts that I pointed out? No one else thinks it's scummy to go from finding someone mildly scummy for really weak reasons and then ready to lynch so quickly? (And then later lie about it and say you changed your opinion "over time" based on the arguments everyone was coming up with?)

We have less than a week before deadline. I'm sticking with the ice wagon until I get a response from more players on it. The only thing anyone has said about it is they're not bothering to read it because it's too long. A few have said they will and I'm waiting. There are a few others I'd be willing to vote, as I'm as aware as anyone else that a no lynch is the worst thing that could happen D1. I'll be rereading the thread while I wait for the rest of you to comment on Ice.

[Setael]

Empking, when you replaced in, you named Ice as scum. Your response to my posts (and previous entire lack thereof) do not indicate in the least that you actually think he's scum. What did you find scummy about him in your initial read? Do you have anything else to say about all the things I found scummy?

Ima ISO your slot.

So Mongoose did almost nothing. No scum hunting, no analysis, no stating suspicions. He actively flew under the radar until he was replaced out. The only times he did say anything about other players, he qualified the statements in a way that looks like he was avoiding actually saying anything he would have to explain. (i.e. “q21 summed up what i thought perfectly so no real content here” and “I dont like how neil likes how many people jumped on him though, however it sounds like something I would say so I will let it be.”)

Empking’s entry into the game was interesting. He posted a full breakdown without giving any reasons whatsoever (and then when asked for reasons on Nameless he merely says “gut”. There’s been an awfully lot of content to simply be going with gut imo.) He put neko, Ice and Nameless on his scum list which was refreshing since no one else had poked at any of them much. If Empking is scum, my original read of the game was pretty off. He lists q21 as certain town, which I actually find bizarre since q21’s play was fairly lazy and unhelpful. It's interesting when someone declares your slot as obviously town. I find myself wanting to agree with his analysis because I know he's right about my slot, but if he's scum he knows everyone's alignment anyway so meh.

If an Ice wagon can't happen before deadline, I'd prefer an empking lynch over the other options.

[Setael]

Please tell me that's not all you have to say. How about some more direct questions.

What about Ice did you find scummy upon initially replacing in?

What do you think of my case on him? Any good points? Any weak points? What do you think of his defense?

What about q21 did you find so pro-town?

It would be really helpful if you could provide something more than "gut". Which posts or what things were said that gave you that gut feel?

[Setael]

Your buddy needs to verify your claim. Without that it's completely invalid and you could coast through as scum with a false mason fake claim. A few players have expressed a willingness for a mass claim, so that shouldn't bother them at all. If you are a mason, having both of you claimed also makes scum less sure who to target at night.

[Setael]

Oh yeah, Setael, stop being an idiot. k thx. I'm not going to claim my partner. That's justy ridiculously anti-town.

First, I never said you should claim your partner. I think your partner should claim. It needs to be their choice to verify it. If you are town, your partner has to claim before you are lynched in order to avoid scum being able to claim your mason partner later. If your partner then claims, the town will not know who to believe and it could lead to a mislynch of your mason buddy. (This would be more likely to happen if scum was under pressure from a wagon or maybe in lylo but still. You need to be alive to verify that whoever claims to be your buddy is actually your buddy. That way if you die we'd have one confirmed townie who could probably be protected.)

You claimed mason, now I want you to back it up. Either you can't, in which case there's no reason not to believe you are scum and lynch you. Or you do but your 'buddy' ignores you, in which case there's actually MORE reason to believe you are scum and lynch you. Or you can, in which case quite frankly I still won't believe you and we'll have one less scum to find after you flip.

This statement was antitown. You tell him to claim his partner but then say you will lynch him anyway. So if he is town, you completely erase any motivation for his partner to reveal. In the position he's in, there is almost no way a scum buddy would out themselves to falsely verify the claim. (Because this close to deadline as the leading wagon there's way too high a likelihood that Emp will be lynched on Tuesday and out that scum buddy. Especially where one of them would need to be lynched to verify the mason claim and give us one confirmed townie.)

If Emp is indeed mason, btw, it would indeed be really stupid for the partner to be outed. I don't like the suggestions otherwise at all.

See told you Neko was smart.

Yep, smart like scum looking to take advantage of you not being able to verify your partner's claim.

[Setael]

I did a quick ISO read of nameless and it made me feel icky.

Regarding the coinflip: No, I didn't expect a wagon to form from a coinflip. My last vote was outdated, I had two equal suspects, I was lazy and I didn't expect it would make any difference to the next 24 hours. But mostly? It made me giggle. When ICEninja posed the dilemna I figured I'd better give a serious answer, though. AND NOW YOU KNOW.

I don't like this excuse for the coinflip, and I don't like that he was basically hoping his vote wouldn't lead to a wagon. Only scum are nervous about starting wagons.

His play just seems... careful. My first read through I put him as town. It actually makes sense that scum would read very townie-seeming before any flips, since they'll be trying the hardest and have the most inside information. Frankly, the post I just quoted alone is enough for my vote. The more I think about the unlikelihood of Emp's claim getting him out of a lynch, the less I think it's a fake claim. (I'm also nervous that there is no one trying to get Emp out of a lynch which wouldn't happen if he were scum.)

unvote, vote: nameless

I'm still willing to vote Emp to avoid a no lynch (and to have a confirmed townie if he's telling the truth). My hope is there'll be enough activity before tuesday to drum up a nameless wagon.

[Setael]

Emp, here's the thing. If you are a mason and have a buddy and there are breadcrumbs to verify this (as you hinted), then it needs to be pointed out now. This is the only protown thing to do, since the deadline is so close and too many people are willing to hammer (including me) to avoid a no lynch and clearly no one is willing to really consider another wagon this late. The only way to avoid your lynch is for you both to claim and point out the breadcrumbs - this was inevitable from the moment you claimed. This is the only benefit of masons - you can confirm each other. Regardless of the scummy thing nameless said about lynching you anyway, this should not happen. If you both claim, we have 2 confirmed townies and there should be protections that at least will make it difficult for the scum to know which one to target, and there should be a cop role that can ask about either you or your buddy to eventually confirm you. If you are town, your buddy needs to claim and point out crumbs in order to stop your wagon.

Nobody hammer until this happens - there's a chance his buddy isn't active or isn't sure what to do. There are a lot better ways to find out if the mason claim is true and we need another wagon in the meantime. Any thoughts on my nameless case? I should have time to reread implosion later today, as his possibly has enough support to get a lynch before deadline.

If you are scum, Emp then continue on as you are. You will be lynched at deadline and we'll know you were just lying. If you are town, you need to back up the mason claim in order to stop your wagon.

[Setael]

You claimed to try and stop your wagon. Scum would do that for the same reason town would.

Can you show anywhere YOU or mongoose breadcrumbed that wouldn't out your partner?

[Setael]

Also, why not 2 masons a doc and a cop? If there are 4 scum (1 or 2 teams) there could definitely be 4 town power roles.

[Setael]

There are 3 votes on nameless if I'm not mistaken. Anyone care to weigh in about him? Rather than just repeat over and over that we don't have time to get another wagon, how about commenting on some of the other wagons?

If emp is a mason, there is likely a cop that could look into it. Scum obviously are thrilled we're going to lynch a mason, but the townies at least should be seeking other alternatives. We likely have an investigative role that can check him out. Scum might take him out for us. If neither of these happen, he can always be lynched later. Unfortunately, it's hard to tell who's just being lazy town and who is scum because everyone is just saying "oh well. even if he's a mason let's just lynch him."

I don't know if his claim is true or not either, but I do know that it's stupid (or smart, if you're scum) to lynch a claimed mason when there are other ways of finding out if he's telling the truth or not.

[Setael]

WeaponsofMassConstruction has been prodded.

@Empking he said he would replace out if he hadn't caught up, but he hasn't said explicitly that he wants replacing. We shall see what he says. If he does replace out, I may extend the deadline.

@Mod - Does your post that we have 24 hours mean you heard from weapons and he isn't replacing out?

[Setael]

We have a good chance the deadline will be extended, so I'm voting for the person I'm most sure is scum regardless of wagon status.

mb is clearly reading the thread, lurking in plain sight and flying under the radar. He's promised to look things over and post some content several times, and then just doesn't do it. Now he's saying nothing has happened and again promises to post asap. He's tunneled on Saint and managed to not say much else (especially lately). I think he's scum, sitting on the easy wagon and avoiding saying anything that might look bad later.

unvote, vote: mb53

[Setael]

@1216: Many players are active enough that a new wagon is completely feasible. What stops it is people like you refusing to comment on it or even consider it. What do YOU think of mb's recent play?

[Setael]

I'll vote anyone to avoid a no lynch day 1. Anyone. I'm sure I'm not the only one, so I don't think your argument for switching back to emp is reasonable right now, especially when the deadline might be extended. I think it's scummy to not be willing to consider anyone else at this point. If you think mb is scum, VOTE him. Right now it looks like you switching your vote from emp to implosion was just an attempt at gaining town points later when emp flips mason. Scummy.

[Setael]

That post was directed to Darth btw.

[Setael]

...
You guys are all impossible to read (that means null reads on everyone but implosion saint and emp)

I agree, I only have two town reads and one of them is me.

You're both full of crap. There's tons of content. How about starting to scum hunt instead of hiding behind this excuse?

King, what do you think about mb's play? Maybe stop tunneling and look at some of the other options.

[Setael]

@nameless - your post was so scummy. Are you still not going to post anymore today even though the deadline is extended? Parking on the wagon of a claimed mason and ignoring everythig else that's going on is not at all pro town.

[Setael]

When I said that about you ignoring everything else I was referring to your statement that you weren't going to pay attention to the thread again before deadline (or at least refuse to participate). That = ignoring everything.

[Setael]

Swift, I'm not sure how it's protown to narrow down for the scum who emp's mason buddy is. Unless you're scum in which case, maybe you're trying to start a trend? It's either scum genius or idiot town. Please no one else follow his lead. And I guess there is the chance emp is scum and then it doesn't matter at all.

I don't like the saint wagon, nor how much it's distracting from an mb lynch.

[Setael]

I'm going to reread looking at implosion. I've never gotten anything but town vibes from him, but I could use a reread and I'm willing to hammer him to avoid a no lynch.

Question: Say it is an hour before deadline, and there are 6 votes on me... Would it be a good idea to self hammer to avoid a no-lynch (I would guess yes, but I want to check just in case...)?

This is interesting. On one hand, you could be scum just trying to look town, since this is obviously something scum would never do. If you are town, I don't know... There's the issue of all the information gained by any death but it's still a numbers game and we need all the townies we can keep around. I think I would not hammer myself. We'd at least have the info gained by the night kill. A townie hammering themselves is giving the scum 2 dead townies, assuming nothing interferes with their night kill.

[Setael]

Also, swiftstrike's vote on ice is leftover from weapons. Who are you voting, swift? You've done very little actually. You must have time to be fairly active since you just agreed to replace in, so where are you? What do you think of the current wagons? Was weapons scum whose buddies bailed him out early in the game?

[Setael]

You're at L-1 mb. Time to claim.

[Setael]

Nameless took the wind out of my confidence about mb being scum. Looks way too much like nameless KNOWS mb is town and is setting up future mayhem based on that. I wish the wagon were on nameless.

I need to reread to respond to king/Darth. I'm on my phone and I'm confused about something that I need my compy to be able to look into. Should be able to do it later tonight.

[Setael]

Trust me, if there were a wagon on you or I thought there was any chance one could get support before deadline, I'd have moved my vote to it. I think Saint is town and that is why I didn't move my vote to him. I've gotten nothing but a townie vibe from him and I've never seen any argument against him that I found much merit in. In fact, many of the arguments against him I've found very scummy:

So then ice says “I think Saint is mildly scummy due to his predecessor and partially because of his all over the place posting.” This follows Zedenek having added a vote to Saint. This is subtle wagon pushing and keeping yourself open to hammer a townie. Also, what is scummy about posting several posts the way he did, and how is it “all over the place”? Has this always bothered you, or are you just making friends with KTS? Or just looking for a reason to hammer a townie? Ironically, ice then posts again (so all over the place and scummy!) to add a little umph to his future Saint vote. Does this bring him up from mildly scummy, ice? You can probably vote him soon without looking too suspicious right? Check.

It's true that my #1 reason to think Saint is town are the opportunistic votes zedenek and ice put on him with crap reasons (as well as ice's play regarding saint in general), but I don't feel scum from over's posts or his. It's a crappy wagon. So though there's a chance you know mb is town and that makes me nervous, I don't see Saint as a better option.

I hate the Saint wagon. I'm not seeing it and really don't see scum claiming vanilla the way over did.

I only just realized rereading that I mixed up over for neil in my first read and was thinking it was over that claimed vanilla when it was actually neil. Regardless, I don't think Saint is scum. Yes, your post made me nervous about an mb lynch (as did his question about hammering himself) but I don't have a better option atm. I'll only vote Saint if it's to avoid a no lynch.

[Setael]

@King & Darth & anyone else who cares - I think I figured out what I did wrong. When I first read this post, I misread the parentheses in this post:

Honestly, I am actually really worried by this town attitude that a deadline extension is simply going to happen. If it isn’t for sure, then we should be under the assumption that the deadline is *tomorrow*. If the extension is granted, great, but so far, about half the town has posted since I re-voted, and no one is willing to try for an alternate bandwagon (except for Set starting an Mb one, and nobody has really expressed a willingness to bandwagon Implosion). We’re roughly seven hours to deadline, and I don’t know if I’ll be able to check in again before the deadline to see if an extension is happening. Anything is better than a D1 no-lynch, and given that reality, I’m re-voting Emp. This puts him back at L-1.

Unvote. Vote: Empking.

as "(except for Set starting an Mb one, and nobody has really expressed a willingness to bandwagon [him])" which gave me the impression that he would vote mb except that no one else seemed willing to. That, combined with what he had pointed out earlier about mb:

On an unrelated note--everyone, check out Mb53's ISO. His most recent three posts, in order, are:

I don't have much to add but...
myself wrote:
I think this fight between Empking and king is going nowhere.

I didn't have time to re-read the thread today, but I promise I will tomorrow with everyone's thoughts on nameless/ICE in mind.

Sorry, I was in a rush -_-

I think that empking could easily claim mason whether he is scum or town. And if he really is mason, its his/his partner's choice on whether or not to claim buddy. Really his claim doesn't change my opinion on him.

Obviously we aren't going to lynch saint today, so unvote, vote:empking

I think this fight between Empking and king is going nowhere.

Also, tonight or tomorrow I will re-read the thread with your view on ice and nameless setael

Mb, lot has happened--and you don't have much to add with any of your contributions? Why are you trying to coast by rather than help scumhunt?

is why I posted the "If you think mb is scummy then VOTE him."

[Setael]

I need to reread, but I'm pretty sure I'll be voting nameless. His play at the end of d1 looked very much like he knew mb was town.

I would also like to high five the ghost of Pie for drawing the NK as a VT. (I guess I should also thank the scum for choosing him since I was having a hard time reading him, but was definitely leaning scum.

[Setael]

@ice: if we lynch saint and he comes up town, would your opinion on nameless change at all?

[Setael]

Knowing mb was about to flip town, scum were likely motivated to stay off of mb's wagon, actually. They knew we weren't going to allow a no lynch. Unless Saint is scum, in which case his buddies probably helped push the mb wagon to get it off of Saint. On Feb. 21 there were 6 people voting empking and he was at L-1.

I started the mb wagon and neko was the first to follow me onto it. Next is Saint. Then everybody starts voting saint - KingTwelveSixteen, mb53, InflatablePie, nameless, Darth Yoshi (2 of these I now know are town). So at this point it was Saint with 5 votes and mb with 3. Then empking and implosion join the mb wagon, followed by swiftstrike and then pie hammers. Of these, if Saint is town I think maybe one of neko, saint, implosion and swiftstrike could be scum, but I'll bet the rest of the scum stayed off wagon. (These are Ice, KTS, nameless, Darth, Zdenek)

If Saint is scum, there were probably more scum on the mb wagon, as it moved from saint to mb. mb and Pie moved to the saint wagon instead of mb as well as nameless and darth. Saint's wagon could very easily have gained the momentum to be the D1 lynch so I don't think it likely that any of these votes were bussing when it was so easy to vote mb instead. If Saint is scum, nameless and darth are probably town. Everyone who moved to the mb wagon when Saint's had 5 on it would look a lot worse - empking, implosion, and swiftstrike. Again, though, if this is the case I think scum could've just sat back and watched the townies mislynch mb. (I was one of those townies so it feels this way to me.)

If Saint is town, I think we're looking at a scum group of Ice, neko and nameless (with maybe Darth or KTS if there are 4). If Saint is scum, implosion and swiftstrike are much more likely to be scum. I believe empking's claim more and more so he's kind of off my radar for now.

Looking back, my reasons for not wanting to join the Saint wagon are not that strong, I know 2 townies at least believed he was scum and there'd be a lot of info from his lynch. There's a good chance scum just watched as the town mislynched mb without need of their help, but if Saint is scum, then it's more likely that scum were involved in the wagon switch.

vote: Saint

[Setael]

@Setael: While I agree that lynching Saint could provide us with a lot of information—a Saint town flip would force me to rethink a number of my reads—you’re putting a vote on player without actually saying why you think that player is scum. The closest you get is saying that your reasons for not wagoning Saint weren’t that strong. If you think Saint is scum, why? If you don’t think he is scum, then why are you voting for him?

Good point. I should've elaborated on that.

This post is the first one of Saint's that gave me scum vibes:

With two townie deaths, and myself being a townie, perhaps it is best to massclaim at this point, as our power roles will begin to be sniped otherwise. I am completely for this.

In terms of who we should lynch, I believe we should follow InflatablePie's logic of either me or EMPKING today.
Therefore,

vote: EMPKING

He also gave a FoS of zdenek we should look into with his last post.

I don't like AT ALL that he starts D1 voting a claimed mason and his reason is "because Pie said we should lynch either me or Empking, so I guess it should be empking". Wha? Nothing has changed from yesterday's good reasons to not be voting a claimed mason except that the wagon we switched to ended up being a townie. I don't see townies voting empking right now. At all. I also don't like the suggestion to mass claim. Scum is likely frustrated they hit vanilla last night. They don't want that to happen again tonight. Of course they want a mass claim. Scummiest idea ever.

Yesterday, everything that was pointed out about Saint as a reason to lynch him I could see a townie doing. The main argument was that the way he replaced in was scummy which I never thought was a good reason since I can definitely see a townie replacing in and addressing the negative attention on their slot. And if it was in several posts, so? I don't see town being more motivated than scum to post in an organized way. And then I got a town vibe from most of his posts and a scum vibe from his wagon. Well turns out 2 of those on his wagon were townies so either 2-3 of the others were scum, or my Saint read was probably wrong. If 4-5 townies agree on someone being scummy, likely I'm the one whose read is wrong. So basically, Saint's flip will give me a much better idea of who I can trust.

[Setael]

unvote, vote: Iceninja

You've always been my #1 scum read, and I still think it was highly scummy that you jumped from finding Saint "mildly scummy" to being ready to lynch him within minutes. Your last post just cemented it (and also made me pretty sure you know Saint is town).

I understand Setael's reasons for voting Saint, but considering you had a town read on him yesterday, doesn't it seem sort of sudden to switch to a Saint vote based on what you just said? You're essentially supporting an information lynch.

I think I know who I'm going to be suspicious of now if Saint flips town.

This is so scummy. You start with "I understand Setael's reasons..." You have to say this of course because 10 minutes after I voted Saint you posted this:

Alright, I like the reasons for voting Saint. I'm on board.

Unvote, vote Saint

.

So how can you like my reasons for voting Saint and understand my reasons and yet think all my reasons boil down to an information lynch? You didn't express ANY suspicion of my Saint vote until after Darth did and then you give a post that is very obvious a "

Oh yeah, this is actually a good way to throw some suspicion at Setael. Why didn't I think of that?! Ah well, it's not too late!

" So then you set up lynches by stating you'll be suspicious of me if Saint flips town. That'll put the town in a great position - if Saint's town then scum NK a townie, the next day we mislynch me, the next night scum kill a townie and we have 6 dead townies before the town gets another chance to vote.

You're scum. I backed off because there was zero support so I started doubting my read, but I'm not backing off this time. You're today's lynch.

[Setael]

Ok, Ice, we have a problem here because now you're saying:

Yes, I agree that you HAVE reasons for lynching him (information is always good to have), but considering you had a TOWN read on him yesterday, the reasons you gave to justify voting him were bad. Basically, I liked your vote,

but not your reasons for it.

(emphasis mine)

So you don't like my reasons for it. And yet right after my vote you SPECIFICALLY said you liked my reasons for voting.

I like [Setael's] reasons for voting Saint.

and then this too:

I understand Setael's reasons for voting Saint...

It was followed by you setting up my mislynch:

You're essentially supporting an information lynch.

I think I know who I'm going to be suspicious of now if Saint flips town.

which considering I think you're scum made me quite worried you know Saint's town and might just be able to pull off 2 town mislynches just from my Saint vote. THIS is what caused me to want to jump off Saint's wagon immediately. Ice slipped up. He said he liked my reasons and then as soon as Darth questioned it he saw an opening to paint me scummy. Nameless either backed him as a buddy or fell for it as town with that nice jab accusing me of a "bussing attempt".

So I went from thinking he's mildly scummy to being ready to lynch him in minutes? He went from being scum I wanted to lynch tomorrow to scum I want to lynch today. Big difference.

Nope. Monday at 11:59 p.m. you said "I think Saint is mildly scummy" and at 1:52 a.m. you said "I'm totally fine for a lynch of either Saint or implosion." Less than 2 hours later. That's what I'm talking about.

Seriously though, 'oh, 4-5 townies couldn't possibly be wrong!' ... is wrong, and a terrible excuse for shifting your vote.

Agreed. Good thing I saw the error of my ways, eh? It seemed reasonable at the time.

Especially since you misrepresented the case against Saint (there was much more too it) and defended his D1 play

in the same post

,

As I stated, I didn't find any parts of the case very convincing yesterday, both on my first read of the thread (when it WAS mostly the way he entered the game that was being called out) nor anything added after.

and then immediately leaping back OFF the bandwagon to attack ICEninja who you claim has always been your #1 scum read despite having clearly been pushing for my lynch with no real mention of ICE during the last week of D1 or your opening D2 post.

Do you really see nothing in my reason for switching from Saint to Ice? Why are you only concerned with the jump, and not paying attention to my reason for doing so? Why the refusal to see that Ice may be scum? This is part of why I didn't push with my Ice read yesterday. I was the only one seeing it, it clearly wasn't going to happen without more info so I had to look elsewhere.

If this sounds at all familiar, remember Setael started mb53's wagon in a similar manner; suddenly swearing mb53 was really his scummiest player despite not mentioning him for a while.

Yeah, that's the "looking elsewhere". I had a town read on Saint and didn't want emp lynched. I had already tried Ice and got no support and I hadn't found anything further on neko or Pie either who were my other 2 scum reads. I looked elsewhere and mb looked scummy.

@Setael: Something about your explanation isn’t adding up to me. You posted twice in between Saint’s initial D2 post and your vote on Saint, and neither time did you express any suspicion for a post that you claim you did not like “AT ALL.” You also neglected to mention said post when you voted for Saint. If you were so vehement about not liking the post, why keep quiet on it until I asked, after you had posted three times?

It was the very first time I felt scummy vibes from Saint and when I first read it I didn't think that much of it, since I can also see a townie thinking (erroneously imo) that a mass claim at this point is a good idea. When I voted for Saint, as you've noticed, I didn't think to go into detail at all why I had decided his lynch would be acceptable. I didn't think to do so until you asked about it.

Also, you come back and say that ICE has “always” been your #1 scumread. Okay, that’s fine, but then why didn’t you vote him at the outset of D2?

Nothing had changed re: him since I first entered and not a soul found him scummy. No reason to think it would be any different at the beginning of D2.

[Setael]

Saint, I'm not defending you. I think mb's lynch is optimal since he's scummy, and if he is indeed scum, I think it will shed some light on both you and implosion, thus the information to be gained is significant. Yet, I still find you scummy, and if the town thinks you're the best lynch, so be it. It will still be far superior to an Emp lynch.

It probably won't surprise you that I think yours is the scummiest vote on mb's wagon. What light would you say mb's flip shed on Saint and implosion?

Zdenek-- seriously? Massclaim is not the only thing that has been mentioned about Saint. Nameless has given a pretty substantial list of reasons that Saint has responded to minimally, and Ice has pointed out a rather obvious contradiction in terms of basing his play on Pie's final words. Did you not read any of this, or how might you explain that based on meta?

Emp-- earlier you said you were still leaning town on Saint, now you say either he or nameless needs to be lynched. Why the sudden change in reads, when you seemed so positive he was town yesterday?

Saint- still wondering what you think about looking into swiftstrike based on mb's last post. I'm also now wondering why your opinion of Pie has changed so drastically.

All--sorry I can't post more right now. Sucky week.

vote:Saint

. This seems to be the way to get a response from you.

So... your reason for putting Saint at L-2 is to get a response out of him? Really?

My question for neko is, are you able to talk with Ice in your scum QT during the day or just at night? *watches for eye dilation*

[Setael]

Your last post just cemented it (and also made me pretty sure you know Saint is town).

Explain how you get this from ICE's post.

Just saw this again looking back over the thread. I answered it in 648 but without referencing your question. Let me know if it's not clear.

[Setael]

What I mean is that Emp is not a very pro-town player right now, regardless of his alignment. Regardless of him being scum, mason, or even VT, he's hurt the town and has done very little to help.

Please provide examples.

[Setael]

@Setael: How do you get scummy vibes (in your words, “scummiest idea ever”) from something you think a townie might say? Your explanations aren’t jibing, and it just makes it look like you were supporting an information lynch on a player you actually still thought was town.

I didn't consider that townies might also think a mass claim was a good idea (at that point) until after. At the time it did seem like the scummiest idea ever and made me rethink my stance on him. I started looking into possible connections, analyzed yesterday's wagons, and started really thinking i had been wrong yesterday. I didn't have a LOT on him and, as has been pointed out, me thinking I should trust the reads of those who have now flipped town was not the best idea I've ever had but I certainly wasn't sure he was town. Nor am I now. I didn't vote for someone I thought was town like you're saying, but I did vote someone who was a lot lower down my scum list than other players (and that was partly because nothing much had changed to make me think anyone would support a wagon on my top scum reads). Ice's scummy post setting up my mislynch snapped me back to my senses.

[Setael]

Setael:

when I first read it

I didn't think that much of it, since I can also see a townie thinking (erroneously imo) that a mass claim at this point is a good idea.

Setael:

I didn't consider that townies might also think a mass claim was a good idea (at that point)

until after

Emphasis mine. Anyone else see the contradiction? Set, you apparently thought Saint's massclaim idea was townish before you thought it was scummy, but also didn't think it was townish until after you thought it was scummy? All to explain a vote for an information lynch on a player you admit was way down on your scumlist?

I worded that really poorly. Everything after the "since" in the first sentence I didn't think about until later so I shouldn't have said it that way. I'm not sure why - all I know is I didn't really notice it or think about it the first time I read it.

1. I read the thread and didn't think much of the mass claim suggestion (meaning I didn't think about how much scum would want that to happen right now; I didn't think through the implications.)
2. When looking over Saint's play and examining the D1 wagons, I realized how scummy his opening D2 post was (for wanting a mass claim and for his reasons for voting empking).
3. Once I realized the error of my ways (Ice pointed this out by making it even more obvious he's scum and hinting that he knows Saint is town) I immediately unvoted and when looking back over that post (and someone mentioning that he's called for a mass claim before as town in another game) I realized it could definitely have been said by town as well.

[Setael]

Swiftstrike, what do you think of ice?

[Setael]

Yoshi, how about you hop on the Saint wagon and put him at L-1? After he flips scum, we'll have an incredibly solid case to push against implosion tomorrow.

And if he flips town, maybe we can get more steam behind your wagon. Maybe one of your buddies will even bus you for us.

Nobody hammer. He hasn't claimed as far as I remember.

[Setael]

No, Neil did. Saint hasn't claimed.

[Setael]

Ah my bad. Saint really is terrible if he's town. Pretty sure he is though (amiright ice?)

I won't be hammering.

[Setael]

Pretty sure he is though

This seems slightly at odds with you thinking Saint is really terrible if he's town.

What are you talking about? I'm pretty sure he's town. As likely town, it's terrible play to claim when he did. What's at odds here?

You're grasping at straws to paint me scummy. It's more than obvious that you know Saint's going to flip town and you're planning to get me mislynched for it, just like you said you would. Even if he flips scum my bet is somehow you'll find a way to pin that on me. (nameless will help you with that one - according to him my vote today was a feeble attempt at bussing.)

[Setael]

You're grasping at straws to paint me scummy.

I'm not trying to paint you scummy. I'm pointing out scummy things you're doing. There's a difference.

I know the difference. Please explain how the following quote is "pointing out something scummy I've done."

Pretty sure he is [town] though

This seems slightly at odds with you thinking Saint is really terrible if he's town.

I think he's probably town. It's stupid for a townie to claim VT for no reason. Please explain what is so scummy about me thinking this.

[Setael]

You've got to be kidding me.

[Setael]

Looking over Ice's first posts on D2, I think he may have investigated implosion and got a scum result on him. It makes sense for him to investigate implosion considering his read of him D1, and he starts off D2 saying nothing's changed, we need to lynch implosion. The only thing that makes me doubt this at all is he then says, "If implosion is town, however, I'm not sure where I'll go from there." This statement, though, may have just been to keep from being obvious as cop. Possibly the only reason he went for saint instead of implosion (or first, rather) was there was much more support for it. He'd have probably had to claim to really get a wagon going on implosion. I think he was so confident about BOTH implosion and Saint because he knew one of them was scum and due to the connection he saw between them, he was sure saint was too.

I'm going to reread first since obviously all my initial reads were wrong, but this makes me want to vote implosion.

I don't think emp's buddy should claim yet. We should wait one more day and hope scum hit a VT tonight. I feel like we have enough reason to lynch implosion today that we don't need the masons to claim just to narrow down our choices. The longer they don't know who emp's partner is (and keep not killing emp to try to get us to do it for them, or at least out the partner), the closer to end game we have 2 confirmed townies alive, and there's plenty of time to lynch emp if there ends up being no partner.

[Setael]

I disagree. The first thing he says D2 is we need to lynch implosion. He makes sense as a n1 investigation, especially where there is no one ice gives a solid town read on (which he would have if he'd gotten a town result on someone.) The argument that he already thought he was scummy so he wouldn't investigate him is bad. Because of how sure he was of the connection between implosion and saint, he probably thought if he investigated one he'd have 2 scums basically confirmed to him. Two birds with one stone (at least in ice's mindset) would be a perfect reason for investigating one of them. I think he got a scum result on implosion and was certain that meant saint was scum as well.

As for nameless' reasons for voting me, I've explained my actions and they don't make sense as scum. If I were scum and knew saint were town why not just stay on his wagon? Scum is more careful with votes and not drawing negative attention. It makes no sense for scum to wagon someone they think is the cop - it makes a lot more sense to just wait and nk them like they did.

This feels like distraction from implosion. I'm the obvious target for scum, and they probably orchestrated how to pull off my mislynch last night. So we lynch implosion and when he flips scum, we look at nameless.

[Setael]

Empking, will your partner be claiming today?

He will not.

I'm not sure what to do at this point. I think that I'm going to hop back onto the Nameless train.

Vote:Nameless

Though I think there nameless could be implosion's scum buddy, I think there's strong evidence ice had a scum result on implosion. Your thoughts on this?

[Setael]

Set: Its not conclusive but cops need to be wary of giving strong reads.

Sure, but if they got a town result on someone they'd say they have a town read on them. A VT is just as likely to say "I think x is town" so why would that seem suspicious? A cop would definitely want to post right away giving something town can look back at to find their investigation result if they end up NK'd. I agree that they can't be too obvious but they can say they have a town or scum read on whoever they investigated. He did that by telling us to lynch implosion.

Looking back over Ice's posts there's a small chance he investigated nameless and got a town result. He initially says he's going to look over nameless' end of D1 play but then says he reread him and decided he was town. This might have been his way to get a town result on nameless out there without drawing too much attention. Also a good reason to not wagon nameless today.

I'm rereading looking at implosion.

[Setael]

After re-thinking ICE’s posting pattern…Setael, if what you say is accurate—that ICE investigated Implosion and got a guilty result, leading him to conclude that Saint and Imp were a scumpair—why wouldn’t ICE out his investigation result? A 1:1 trade, even with a PR, is typically a good deal for the town, and a 2:1 trade is excellent. Nabbing two scum in one go would be as good a use of a cop as you could probably hope for.

First, he knew there was a cop and possibly 2 masons so he probably thought it was unlikely there's a doc which would make him hesitant to claim since surely he was hoping to get a result N2 as well - D2 would be really early to claim even if he did catch scum.

Second, assuming he did get a scum result on implosion and concluded that both saint and implosion were scum, there was no reason to claim the result and unnecessarily out himself if he could get one of them lynched without claiming. If things played out differently he may have claimed, but he was sure enough that the saint wagon was taking out scum that he didn't think it necessary. Makes sense.

I did not read anything ice said about a cop as breadcrumbs. I thought he was scum. The last thing I would've considered was that ice might be cop. Implosion, on the other hand, was reading a lot into the cop talk and this is a very good point:

Re-reading this, this vote is all kinds of awful. Tells aside, there’s likely no way for scum to know whether there is a cop in the setup—only a cop would know there is a cop in the setup. So what Implosion is claiming is a scum tell (knowing what town PRs are in the setup) would actually be a town PR tell…and then he votes for ICE.

[Setael]

When I first read this, I also arched an eyebrow:

I never said I wasn't suspicious of him, I just said that lynching him was a bad idea. I feel like I've made my point fairly clear in saying that I want to wait until day 3 or so, at which point it is much safer for a mason buddy to clear him, or for a cop to claim. Should Emp be cleared at day 3, that forces scum to decide who to night kill during nights 3 and 4, and forcing them to night kill Emp, which is good because then they aren't night killing a townie player.

but then I realized what Ice was saying and it didn't bother me anymore. He's not saying Emp is not a townie player - he's separating Emp out from the rest of the town and saying scum will be forced to NK emp rather than one of the other townies (as opposed to us lynching emp for them, in which case the scum then WOULD NK one of the other townies instead of emp). I don't think this is in any way an indication that Ice thought emp was scum.

I reread Ice's case on Implosion and it's pretty solid. I didn't give it the credit it deserved because I thought ice was scum. Here are his main points:

I said I had no strong read on _over9000's alignment.

Let me go back and quote some things (almost everything, in fact) that you've said about over9000.

scum:
mongoose
nameless
over9000

As for _Over9000, His ISO 2 seems overly cautious and his ISO 3 seems overly unnecessary

He's a really easy target, and I'd bet there's at least one scum on his wagon right now. He seems like too easy of a person for scum to pressure for them to pass up, unless he is scum, in which case I still think they'd be inclined to bus him.

I never once objected to lynching _over9000.

Where did I say that I thought it was more likely town with scum on the wagon? IIRC, the only statement I've made about 9000's alignment is that he does appear scummy.

No. In fact, I agree that he is scummy, and I'm sure that there is town on his wagon (theoretically it could be all scum, but doubtful).

Something isn't adding up. You can't say all of that, then tell us you think it is equally likely for him to be scum and to be town. If you think he's scum and buddies are busing him, then help them bus and lynch scum. If you think he is town and that scum is on his wagon, then you need to specifically point out who is the most likely to be scum and why, as you said yourself you believe there to be town on his wagon.

You haven't done this. Quickly scanning your ISO shows that you are voting mongoose for silly RVS reasons initially, then pressuring him to answer questions. You seem to think he's scummy, but you've never actually stated why he's more likely to be scum than anyone else who voted over9000, unless I missed something.

So yes, implosion is absolutely scummy right now.

Vote implosion

.

I was gonna unvote and vote Emp, but then noticed that he's mongoose's replacement and I already have a vote on him.

Voting someone because of his predecessor. Why? Because of apparently:

I voted mongoose for a contradiction or something (I think, too lazy to go back and check) and then for not answering a question.

You can't even remember. Look back at your reasons, they were pretty awful. The fact that you continue to hold your vote for those original reasons means your scum hunting has come to a complete and total standstill.

I'm also building up suspicion of ICE, partially because I honestly don't see why he's focusing so much on one thing that I said in passing.

He suspects me because I'm scum hunting him. This isn't something you said in passing, this is regarding your (still current) scum reads. It is extremely valid, even now.

Plus, although I may have been somewhat unclear, he is presenting a contradiction where none exists.

You've said over9000 is scummy, repeatedly, but you don't believe he's scum? How is this not a contradiction? How can you find someone scummy but not have a read on their alignment? What does it even MEAN to find someone scummy? This is absolutely a contradiction, one of severe fence sitting. Highly scummy.

And he was on the _over9000 wagon.

Right. I was voting for a scummy player. THAT sure makes me scum.

If we arn't lynching Emp because of his mason claim, then In the spirit of actually playing the game well I would like to say that the other people I suspect are Saint and Pie.

I still think implosion is a way better lynch than Saint, but I wouldn't oppose it. Whats your reasoning for Pie?

I'd like to point out to everyone that implosion all the sudden feels like Saint is town. He also claims to never have a read on over9000, despite having called him scummy (apparently in implosion's book, scummy =/= scum aligned?) and behaved so oddly to the wagon.

Saint is scummy too, but for some reason a wagon never really built on him. That is interesting, though, and makes me further suspicious of him. I'll have to look again at how many people called him scummy without ever having their vote on the slot.

I still want an implosion lynch, though.

Alright, I definitely feel like Emp is a bit on the scummy side, but just look how implosion is taking advantage of the town's push against Emp. I'll take an Emp lynch over a no lynch, but I really feel like I've got such a commanding case against implosion that I just don't want to move off of it. Whats more is that a scum lynch on either Saint or implosion gives us so much information on the other, and that is just too sweet for me to pass up.

I feel like King is probably the most town right now that his slot has ever been, which is pretty much just under neutral.

The case against Emp is decent, and there are definitely points against Mongoose as well. I still just don't think he's as likely to flip scum as implosion.

That being said, I do agree with a couple of your other points—especially him not calling out Implosion after the scumlist.

Come on man, I had lots of respect for you. Why is it scummy to not call someone out for something that I don't think is particularly scummy? Yeah it is anti-town, but how he oriented his scum list was just so much scummier. MB did the same thing, even worse, but I don't think he can be scum if we get an implosion scum flip, as no scum buddy would follow their partner in a connection like that. This is an even further reason to lynch implosion, in my mind.

I admit I'm not 100% fully caught up to the game at the moment, I'm still a little bit behind, but I'll be fully caught up on Saturday, before the deadline.

Alright I still think we need to be lynching implosion. Take a look at him, seriously. Look how much he tries to resist answering my question straight, look at how he keeps beating around the bush, and look at how he drops off the radar the instant pressure is taken off him.

All of these points are IN ADDITION to the fact that he was calling someone scummy but had "no read on his alignment".

I could possibly be convinced to switch back to Saint, but I genuinely think implosion needs to be today's lynch. I see the recent case again MB, and that would be my 3rd pick. I'm not a huge fan of the case against Nameless, and I'm not a huge fan of the case against King, though neither of them are town reads in my eyes.

I just feel like town really doesn't need to be lynching Empking today. Tomorrow we can talk about it when we aren't so close to the deadline, have a flip, and have a better chance of really getting down to the bottom of things. If he is indeed a mason, and gets cleared, that puts scum in a really bad spot tomorrow. If he is indeed a mason and we lynch him today, then his mason buddy has no way to really claim safely, and scum could fake claim it to force us in to lylo. If he's scum, he's going to get lynched, plain and simple. There's no rush.

More implosion votes, please.

vote: Implosion

[Setael]

A smart mason would fake some suspicion on their partner to keep it from being too ridiculously obvious to scum. Just saying.

Also, I never really considered implosion because ice was pushing him so hard and I thought ice was scum. SOUND FAMILIAR? That's probably because I already said it today. Yes, there's a possibility he didn't get a scum result on implosion. That doesn't change the fact that he had a very solid case on him that is vote worthy in spite of him being wrong about saint.

[Setael]

Setael: For a mason to actively cast suspicion on the only other player they know to be town would be almost as bad play as self-lynching, as well as making any future claim highly suspect. The only reason I'm not voting Empking right now is that his play has been so unhelpful thus far that I could actually see him encouraging this as town somehow.

I definitely disagree. If the mason buddy says nothing but 'I have a town read on emp' the whole game then it would be painfully obvious who emp's buddy was, wouldn't it? May as well claim if you're going to do that. Ideally, they should fake some suspicion but nothing that will commit them to pushing a wagon.

Implosions' VCAs are doing nothing for me.

[Setael]

Setael, good point, let's continue to argue theory in Empking's defence while avoiding real comment on implosion's VCA.

I understand you have some not great IRL stuff going on, so I'll let the snarkiness go. Maybe go get some ice cream or something?

I'm not inclined to believe any of the other remaining choices would ruin their validity by outright claiming they weren't or would needlessly and without any provocation gang up with other townies on their buddy in the opening game.

If a mason buddy were going to fake suspicion in order to not be obvious later, wouldn't it be best to do it in opening game before there's any chance of a real wagon (or when you can still bail on a wagon fairly easily, or shift attention elsewhere?) Seriously, why bother not claiming if you're going to be so obvious as to never "suspect" each other? Why bother breadcrumbing if it's going to be so obvious to everyone after D1? You don't want scum to be able to pinpoint who your buddy is. This is not brain surgery.

I was a mason in a game where it was key that I not make it obvious, and I even said "I think the mason is _____ or _____" at one point to throw people off, and it was what kept me from being NK'd and alive at end game to secure the town win. (mini 486 if you want to look it up - my first post on this page: https://www.mafiascum.net/archive/viewt ... &start=825 The other thing that has to happen for this to work is the other people can't all say "Well, it's not me." That's just moronic. I think if there are masons in this game, it would've been a smart move to fake a little suspicion on each other rather than it being "bad play" like you're suggesting.

I realize Empking could be lying about being a mason and if we don't hit scum today we're at lylo so the more I think about it, it seems like the ideal play is for the buddy to claim.

@empking: explain why you don't think your buddy should claim, even though we'll be in lylo tomorrow. I need more than just "Because it's not protown."

As far as implosion's vca - when I said it did nothing for me, I basically said this (in fewer words):

Implosion's VCA is helpful only in that it summarizes some vote counts. I'm no mathematician, but it seems like he's pretty much pulling probability of scum (and number of scum) on any wagon out of nowhere.

Why did you call me out but not neko?

After zdenek's post 755 I could support that wagon. I can definitely see him as scum with implosion. neko's 758 was excellent. Implosion's "defense" doesn't feel at all town to me though so I'm sticking there for now.

[Setael]

Unvote, vote: empking

[Setael]

Setael: You've ignored this twice now, and it's a particularly notable question since you've yet to provide any arguments against implosion that don't amount to piggybacking ICEninja. In 754 you discussed generic game theory instead of responding to a significant post from the player you were trying to lynch. Why?

Because I didn't consider it significant, as I already stated. I still don't. Also, ice's case + a good chance he got a scum result on implosion were good enough without anything new.

[Setael]

KingTwelveSixteen: I notice that you haven't said much since D1 either. Other than Empking, who are your top suspects?
...

Setael, implosion, and neko.

hehe, just got this via ISO.

Nameless took the wind out of my confidence about mb being scum. Looks way too much like nameless KNOWS mb is town and is setting up future mayhem based on that.
...

Knowing mb was about to flip town, scum were likely motivated to stay off of mb's wagon, actually.
...

I'm not sure I get your point. Care to elaborate?

[Setael]

No... You're twisting it. I was ON the wagon when nameless said something that made it look like he knew mb was town. Yes, it made me worry about my read - how could it not? My point in the second one was that scum may have, knowing mb would flip town and that close to deadline townies were likely to vote just to avoid a no lynch, could've stayed off the wagon to keep their hands clean.

[Setael]

FYI - I'm going to be less active than usual this week since it's my spring break. I'll post when I can.

I think that Empking flipping scum looks bad for Setael, so they would have preferred to delay his lynch as long as possible.

How does empking flipping scum look bad for me? I'm unclear on your reasoning.

[Setael]

Sorry for my inactivity - I was on spring break all week and out of town all weekend. Will catch up and post today.

[Setael]

I'm rereading because I'm at a bit of a loss. I can't believe we're at this point with no dead scum. I want to blame it all on empking for being stupid enough to lie -- in order to draw a NK? As a

DOC

? However, my reads have been terrible this game so I'll take a little of the blame. If we don't lynch scum today we lose, and with most likely 3 scum alive they only need to convince one townie and we're screwed. It will be really embarrassing if we don't lynch a single scum all game so today's the day!

I agree with this post re: Darth:

Ice reply to my post and a subsequent question by someone else after that makes me feel a lot happier about his statement I pulled him up on as there is a logic behind it I can follow and somewhat agree with.
--
Darth Yoshi looking at your style of asking questions of other players such as this.

@Nameless: How exactly has Implosion redeemed himself? I see little scumhunting happening from him, and perfunctory defenses at best.

or these

Neko:

Why not mb's? Other than Saint, he listed implosion and swiftstrike. Why shouldn't we be looking into them?

We should. I’m rather dismayed at how much active lurking the town is tolerating from these two (including from Swift’s predecessor). And, is there a reason why you didn't vote Saint? When you posted, there wasn't a risk of putting him at L-1.

@Setael: While I agree that lynching Saint could provide us with a lot of information—a Saint town flip would force me to rethink a number of my reads—you’re putting a vote on player without actually saying why you think that player is scum. The closest you get is saying that your reasons for not wagoning Saint weren’t that strong. If you think Saint is scum, why? If you don’t think he is scum, then why are you voting for him?

@ICE: Has your read on Emp changed? IIRC, you were pretty against lynching him on D1, but #620 is the second time already on D2 that you’ve expressed (unprompted) suspicion of Emp.

@Zdenek and Swiftstrike: Could each of you explain the scumslips you saw in one another? Saying they are scumslips doesn't make them scumslips--I'm wondering if I'm missing something, and the extreme brevity isn't helping.

Reminds me of how I play scum, asking question of players about another player to create a tension between those players rather than asking something a little bit more direct of a player have you got any game I could read where you played as town and asked questions in this same way, because at the moment I am a little wary of you because of how much it reminds me of my own scum style.

Darth is my biggest scum read right now. His play seems the most careful and deliberate. He's managed to avoid suspicion of himself for the most part and not make too big of waves. I feel like I was his pawn with the mb wagon. He posted the mb posts with a "anyone noticed this?" and I jumped on it like a fool.

Nameless--IIOA = Information Instead of Analysis. Simply offering observations and re-stating facts than actually giving substance and analysis. Often considered a scumtell.

And yeah--that post from WoMC did seem pretty defensive.

This post is a good example. He answers a question meant for Weapons, trying to appear helpful. He then sheeps nameless' jab at weapons. He then defends/buddies up to ice in post 43.

The first thing Darth says about Weapons' "trap" is this:

On WoMC--I don't have a ton to add to everyone else's suspicions, except to say that contradictions so early in the game are just as apt to be jumped on by town who have little hard information to go on as they are by scum looking to frame someone, so its effectiveness as a trap seems dubious at best. So I'm not giving much credence to WoMC's defense so far.

He doesn't push weapons at all though, and his next post only talks about implosion. If he were town and really didn't like weapons' defense (and wasn't afraid of drawing attention to himself) he'd have followed up with weapons about this instead of just letting it go.

vote: implosion for making silly declarations and drawing inane connections on page one. This game is probably moving out of RVS rather quickly but dammit I haven't even posted yet!

A lot of things wrong with this post. First, he tries to make it clear it's a random vote with that second sentence, and yet he gives a reason for voting that is not random. Second, as ice points out right after, the implication is that implosion made multiple declarations and connections when that's not the case. [I see 2 possibilities. 1) neko wanted to distance from his scum buddy implosion with his "random" vote. Because it was distancing he felt like he needed a real reason and exaggerated what implosion had actually done, while all the while hiding behind that second sentence which implied it was a random vote. 2) neko is scum trying to cast suspicion on implosion town while avoiding responsibility by hiding behind the sentence implying it's a random vote. I don't see a possibility of this post being made by town.]

So then in post 40 he gives a "what he said" indicating that his post had been sarcastic. Clearly he's referring to the "but I haven't even posted!" line, but this doesn't change the fact that he tried to imply his vote was random when he actually gave a serious reason for voting. There's nothing sarcastic about "he's making silly declarations and drawing inane connections on page one". That's a real reason meant to either distance or indicate real suspicion.

Scum vibes from post 47. He unvotes implosion without explaining the weirdness of his original vote and then he asks neil a fluff question about game theory and defends implosion rather than letting implosion do it himself.


My scum read #2 is neko.

I highly suspect ICEninja of causing the storm that has shut everything down. If my power goes out, I'm coming after you. (I shouldn't have to, but I better specify that this is a joke). Congrats on getting a job--that's not easy to do right now.

Seriously now, WMC is gathering quite a few votes rather quickly. I don't like this last post by over9000 so much. I mean, I know the ideas behind a WMC wagon have already been beaten to death, but I just generally dislike a ditto vote that contributes nothing. There's no question to WMC, and there's no attempt to explore any other avenues. WMC is certainly not the only potential scum suspect right now, and there's plenty of daylight left, so this just looks like coasting.

On the topic, I really do think, as bizarre as it is, that WMC was trying to lay some sort of trap. What else could his "you missed the point" post mean? (not a rhetorical question--this is really bothering me). I can't tell whether this is a scummy move or a poorly conceived, town-motivated one. I'm just as interested as Implosion to see an instance of this being at all effective.

Mongoose's 64 is rather terrible, and I agree with Implosion's assessment. What is really interesting about Mongoose's post is that he was rattled enough by this distancing accusation that he bothered to make a second joke vote to rectify the situation (which really shouldn't be perceived as a "situation" in the first place). Nervous scum?

This post is highly suspect. He's the first to say he thinks weapons really was laying a trap and the way he words this really looks like bailing out a scum buddy. The line "What else could his "you missed the point" post mean?" is also really fishy because it makes no sense to attribute that line to part of a trap. If there was a point we were supposed to get, then it wasn't a trap. neko and swiftstrike could definitely be scum buddies.

Then there's this:

Vote Silavor

Nameless already pointed out the reason. He gives reasons for his vote, but then says that its an RVS vote.

This post indicates a connection between neko and zdenek, since here zdenek votes silavor for doing exactly what neko had just done, but he says nothing about neko.


I still have a lot of reading to do, but right now I'm leaning toward a scum team of darth, neko and zed.

vote: Darth

[Setael]

I'm not worried about votes piling on you because I think your scum buddies will fight against your lynch. If you really thought I was scum, you'd vote me knowing it'd be extremely tough to pull off my lynch with my buddies highly motivated to mislynch today. The only reason to NOT vote is if you actually think I'm town, in which case the worry that all the scum would jump on and mislynch me.

Activity around here is minimal, and talking things out is no longer so helpful since almost half the living players are scum who can lead the town pretty easily. The best plan seems for me to choose the person I'm most confident is scum and stick with that. That happens to be you.

[Setael]

I think

he's a good candidate for scum, and I'd like to hear what others think of [her].

You mean you think I'm a good candidate for a mislynch, but in order to avoid negative attention you'd prefer others to get their hands dirty. I notice you didn't say anything about darth, but you felt perfectly comfortable blatantly defending neko. I may be wrong about neko but I think I'm right that you and darth are scum buddies. I attack darth, you avoid mentioning darth at all and instead attack me.

My main reason for voting implosion yesterday (as you pointed out) was I thought it likely that ice had investigated him. Now that nameless has flipped, I think it's more likely that he investigated nameless and got an innocent on him. I still think ice's case was good and I'm not sure about implosion. I've been rethinking the game and implosion is definitely not my #1 suspect.

Here's how I see it: Scum haven't had to work too hard to get mislynches this game. mb was the best option to avoid killing empking, ice did most the work for saint, and empking was entirely responsible for his own. It makes the most sense for scum to have sat back and avoided negative attention while the townies ran up other townies. The person whose play looks most like this is darth. I haven't been able to reread much of the thread yet, but I know he has played safely and carefully. If he were really a townie, I think he'd have pressured me a lot more about my saint vote. As scum, his play makes more sense. Poke a little, but not too much to put yourself in the spotlight and certainly not enough to derail a perfectly good saint mislynch.

[Setael]

I said this yesterday - the way ice said he reread nameless and decided he was town looked like he had possibly investigated him and gotten a town result.

Your post is dismissing what neko did as so different from silavor's when it's virtually the same thing. In both cases, the second part of their post indicated that their vote was still random when they were actually giving real reasons.

[Setael]

Setael you shouldn't have voted. Your evidence of Yoshi-scum is entirely from day 1 and you didn't even give him a chance to counter it before you voted, and you just flat out ignored his counter with your most recent post.

I'm not worried about votes piling on you because I think your scum buddies will fight against your lynch. If you really thought I was scum, you'd vote me knowing it'd be extremely tough to pull off my lynch with my buddies highly motivated to mislynch today.

The only reason to NOT vote is if you actually think I'm town, in which case the worry that all the scum would jump on and mislynch me

.

Activity around here is minimal, and talking things out is no longer so helpful since almost half the living players are scum who can lead the town pretty easily. The best plan seems for me to choose the person I'm most confident is scum and stick with that. That happens to be you.

Underlined reasoning only works if Yoshi is a

townie

player, so your mindset is that he is a townie then? I know which one of you two I'm gonna vote for if Yoshi doesn't get quicklynched.

Also voting without giving anybody a chance to answer to your accusations is not the correct move in LyLo.

You're right, I didn't think that through obviously. There's no reason for darth not to vote me if he's town and thinks I'm scum.

[Setael]

unvote

I need to look into a few things.

[Setael]

I'm willing if that's the consensus.

[Setael]

VT

[Setael]

Oh yeah. Zdenek you go next.

[Setael]

Why haven't you used it yet?

[Setael]

I would think that you'd use it before lylo. You say last night you were worried you'd put us at 3v3 but I don't understand why you thought it more likely you'd hit town. Didn't you have any scum reads strong enough to try to take one of them out last night?

[Setael]

Why did you wait to tell us this until I called you out for not having used it yet?

And if you did try to use it last night, why did you say this:

When would you have suggested was a good time to use it, night 1 is never good. night 2 I was worried about hitting one of the masons and last night would risk putting us at a possible 3 and 3 so there has been no good time to use it. Even if there is only 2 mafia it would still have put us at an even number so we likely would have no lynched to keep odd numbers and we would be no further forward.

You said "there has been no good time to use it" which definitely indicated that you hadn't used it. If you really did submit a kill last night, I see no reason why you wouldn't say so when you wrote this.

Also, why would you write out your reasoning to the mod like that? (Anyone else here ever done that? I would just submit a kill.) Also, is that normal to bold a kill when submitted via PM? I've never done that either.

Yeah... I don't believe you.

[Setael]

Swift can come up with the convenient excuse of being roleblocked now that he knows, with a doc and cop having flipped, that there is almost certainly a scum roleblocker in the setup.

This phrasing looks scummy. You seem to imply both that Swift is town and that Swift is mafia in the same sentence; scum by saying that he can come up with a convenient excuse, and town by saying that he knows "almost certainly" that there's a scum roleblocker. It would make sense if you inserted "from town's view" before there being a scum roleblocker, but you didn't.

This sentence really points to Darth being scum. He's giving a reason for a scum read on Swift and yet the only reason he'd say the second part of the sentence is if he knows Swift is actually town. (Since if scum, Swift would have known from D1 that there's a scum RB if there is one, it wouldn't make a difference to scum who flips what. It would only make a difference to townies.)

The mod's post made me realize that scum's best bet is actually to stall. If they can get us to just talk until deadline without coming to a consensus, they win. This is clearly what they're doing with so little activity here. It would also make it much easier to pull off a mislynch if they can stall for a few days, because votes could pile on quickly if it's really close to deadline.

Well, I think Setael should claim first because of his early vote.

I held off on commenting because we were in the middle of a mass-claim, but this strikes me as scummy. It feels like he was looking to get the person who he thinks is most likely to be a power role to claim first.
...

What? Where did you get

that

from?

Zdenek is scum. KTS is town. I'd support either a Darth or a Zdenek lynch today, but my preference is Darth. I want to wait and vote until everyone comments about Darth's statement, but if activity drops off again, I'll vote darth again tomorrow to avoid getting too close to deadline.

[Setael]

This is more BS from Setael. She's casting a blanket of doubt over everyone with this accusation.

And what would be my scum motivation for that? Deadline is in 4 days. We need to come to a consensus so we're not trapped into a quicklynch which would be easier for scum to control. Do you feel that activity on this thread is reasonable for a deadline-in-4-days-lylo? Your attempt to cast suspicion on me for this is ludicrous. And scummy.

I can definitely see someone being a power-role with information as being a reason to vote someone immediately in LYLO.

Terrible reasoning. If the reason I voted Darth was because I'm a PR with information on him, don't you think I'd have said so at this point? Your reasons for suspecting KTS for wanting me to claim first are weak and contrived. I also find it hard to believe that you didn't realize KTS "felt so strongly" about my early vote when he had made it abundantly clear.

I'm most comfortable with a zdenek lynch at this point. Every one of his posts today have been really scummy. I'm actually wary of a Zdenek-Neko scum pairing which would mean Darth is prob town.

[Setael]

When I voted you I was in a position to keep an eye on the thread and unvote if anyone jumped on too quickly. I didn't expect that to happen for reasons I've already given but I wanted to be prepared in case I was wrong. I wasn't in the same position today. I'm headed to a funeral and have been driving all day with patchy cell reception. I'll be V/LA the next few days. I should be able to check in and vote but I'm not going to be able to do much else.

@Setael: Here are some accusations for 'ya: Why did you vote for Yoshi when you claimed that you thought it was impossible that neko was town? Why did you vote without letting Yoshi give a counter? Why did you ignore the first accusation listed here when I made it last post? What the heck were you talking about with this: "You're right, I didn't think that through obviously. There's no reason for darth not to vote me if he's town and thinks I'm scum." That was not even close to what I meant in the post you responded to.

I'll try to get to this tomorrow.

[Setael]

I've been going back and forth about Darth, but I'm now pretty confident both zdenek and Darth are scum based on zdenek implicating me for "trying to get anyone but myself lynched" and then Darth for agreeing with it when it's an outright lie and is not a conclusion town would make about my statement.

When I voted you I was in a position to keep an eye on the thread and unvote if anyone jumped on too quickly. I didn't expect that to happen for reasons I've already given but I wanted to be prepared in case I was wrong. I wasn't in the same position today. I'm headed to a funeral and have been driving all day with patchy cell reception. I'll be V/LA the next few days. I should be able to check in and vote but I'm not going to be able to do much else.

Why did you vote for Yoshi when you claimed that you thought it was impossible that neko was town?

I thought they were scum buddies. I voted Darth because I thought he was scum and because he had flown under the radar, his play had been careful and cautious all day and I thought he needed the spotlight.

Why did you vote without letting Yoshi give a counter?

I didn't think about it. I was sure he was scum and therefore confident it'd take a real fight to get anyone else to vote him. Even if town I was sure scum wouldn't just jump on since no one had expressed suspicion of Darth so it'd look fishy. I did keep an eye on the thread though so I could unvote if I was wrong and that happened.

Why did you ignore the first accusation listed here when I made it last post?

I'm not sure. I do remember seeing it so I was either really short on time and/or forgot to answer it when I posted.

What the heck were you talking about with this: "You're right, I didn't think that through obviously. There's no reason for darth not to vote me if he's town and thinks I'm scum." That was not even close to what I meant in the post you responded to.

You're right that I did not think that through well enough. Just like you said, the statement only made sense if I thought Darth was town, which was not the case (though of course there's always a chance he's town, I just don't think so). So that sentence where I said "the only reason for Darth to not vote me is if he's town and thinks I'm scum" makes no sense and therefore there is no reason for Darth not to vote me if he's town and thinks I'm scum.

Your whole argument that scum would jump on a mislynch wagon has been proven wrong anyway by zdenek's vote of me not quickly attracting scum (but if you're a townie you won't know that until the game's over so I guess it's only proven to me).

I think 2 scum are working up a wagon on me - darth and zdenek. Their 3rd buddy will eventually give his reasons and vote me and then they'll just have to convince a townie.

I don't think KTS is the 3rd buddy - his suspicion of me is reasonable and townish. Zdenek and Darth on the other hand, not so much.

I'll be at funeral services most the day but after it's over I'll be voting zdenek. I should be able to be more active then.

[Setael]

I'm most confident about zdenek being scum.

vote: zdenek

[Setael]

Well done, scum. So the team was zdenek - Darth - neko eh? Swiftstrike's terrible claim threw me off some and I wish I'd had time/access to be more active these last few days, reread and make better cases.

Glad this game is over.

[Setael]

Probably the only thing I did right all game.

[Setael]

Thanks Darth & Neko (though it's embarrassing that scum are the ones complimenting me. Of course scum love my play because I'm an easy mislynch!). One thing I'd actually love to have answered - in the QT a few different dead townies thought I was scum (and KTS obviously). I know why KTS did - he had good reason as that first post where I voted Darth I didn't word carefully and hadn't had time to read enough of the thread before making a case. But why did the rest of you think I was scum? I'm finding lately that a lot of people find my play scummy when I'm town so I'd love advice on how to fix that (or at least lessen that.)

[Setael]

Also neko I just read in the scum qt that you're in French linguistics. I teach college French.

[Setael]

I agree. Thanks for modding so actively even when you were really busy and had to sacrifice other games

[Setael]

We moved to Arizona and I teach at a school in Phoenix. I need to update my profile!