Mini 1161 - Neruzian Era Mafia (Over!)

[Zdenek]

I am here. I will post by the end of the day.

[Zdenek]

I've read through the game.


Charter's interactions with Quilford around the time of his claim don't read as genuine to me.

It's way too early for today to end. But you've cracked so hard under virtually no pressure it's extremely unsettling.

Considering that he was at L-1, saying he was under virtually no pressure is false.
This is Charter using a strawman argument for why we should lynch Quilford:

Or would you rather we run up someone to a claim, they throw a fit, and everyone can declare them town, and then repeat it four more times?

I always thought the "right" strategy was to run them up to L-2 maybe L-1 to see how they react, and unvote if they did so in a townie manner before forcing a claim.

As far as Empking goes, he's had some pathetic voting habits so far. He voted Vi because of gut, and later:

FOS: Scott - This post didn't really say much.

At the time his vote was on Vi because of gut. Soon after, he placed Quilford at L-2, and that vote seems pretty opportunistic to me.

One thing I have noteworthy is what seems to me to be an obvious connection between Charter and Empking. Sloth started off the game asking some fairly pointless questions, but considering his join date, I don't see them as being a problem, and they were related to things happening in the game, so I don't have a problem with them. In particular, he asked Charter,

Charter, what are your thoughts on RVS wagons?

Charter responded,

The bigger, the better.

At the time, Charter had the second vote on Empking, and he voted with

Vote Empking
We're going to figure out if you're town on page one.

All of this indicates to me that he wanted a wagon to form on Empking. However, then he unvoted on page 3 in order to pressure Looker. Doing this seems to be contrary to his view of wagon, and also to the goals of his Empking vote. Since it was RVS, none of this would be all that noteworthy, except that the interactions between Charter and Empking have been generally very weak. For example

Charter: Who is more suspicious: Vi or Looker?

Empking, how certain are you Quilford is scum?

I do want to look over Empking, because his reasons he's been giving recently seem suspect at first glance.

When it comes to Hiplop, we have:

you didn't say anything in this post, why quote so much if you're not going to say anything useful

here we have hiplop making a vague attack on my predecessor, but doesn't bother voting him. In his next post he random votes.

i wasn't criticizing, was just wondering why he'd put so much effort into quoting a bunch of posts, but then say nothing.

Unvote

vote:novote

Pansy unvoting kitty-cat.

is quilford at l-1? i don't want to hammer but im sort of suspecting him now

Setting up the opportunity to get on the wagon later, while providing an excuse for not doing it now.

VOTE: vote quilford

adding pressure

Horrible L-1 vote.

I don't feel as strongly about Vi because these things all happened early, but I'll point them out anyway.

I definitely think my Neuky vote is best right now. More than anyone else it seems like he's trying to hide.

She'd originally voted Neuky because something seemed off, now she accuses him of trying to hide. Later she explained this as

*RV post in the middle of evolving discussion
*Post clarifying that yes, you were actually trying to say as little as possible

I also saw your name on the active posters list while I was typing 36 and 38, so I knew you were around and not saying anything then too.

First all attacking someone because you see their name in the active list is terrible, when the person hasn't been lurking. Second of all, the events took place in the middle of RVS, when numerous people were random voting in the middle of evolving discussion.

I also annoys me that Vi called out Sloth for his apparent random vote on Hiplop, but then sheeped Faraday's random vote on Quilford.

Scott is a lame nonparticipating lurker who I'd be fine with lynching.

I'd be surprised if charter was scum.

Why?

All in all, my strongest scum reads are Charter, Empking and Hiplop, and if either Charter or Empking flipped scum, I'd want to lynch the other. I'm a bit hesitant about Hiplop because of his newness.

Unvote
Vote Charter

[Zdenek]

At the time his vote was on Vi because of gut.

So?

Gut votes are weak because unless you are persistent, they are unlikely to persuade anyone else to follow you, and you weren't persistent.

Soon after, he placed Quilford at L-2, and that vote seems pretty opportunistic to me.

Why?

Because you'd ignored Quilford until after Sloth commented on the post that gave you your reason to vote.

Empking is definitely being scummy, though im not prepared to switch my vote from quilford yet, need a tad bit more convincing i suppose.

Why do you think he's scummy?

also can you guys explain the suspicions on Empking?

Hiplop forgets why he thinks Empking's scum. Sloth got this too.

I 'm torn about this because I agree with Faraday that lack of consistency can be a town-tell, but at the same time, I think that not having to be consistent is something that scum would really benefit from not having to be and I think that it is harder for scum to be consistent, since they have to remember their lies. Given that Empking came under heavy suspicion around when Hiplop stated his scum read on him, I think there is pretty good reason to believe that it's not a genuine opinion.

I completely agree with Charter about Juls' ISO 2 and I am willing to follow Faraday on Charter today, so

Unvote

Taking a closer look at Darth Yoshi, in his ISO 1, he makes some fairly weak attacks on Neuky, commenting that Neuky's vote on Quilford in post 32 is "interesting" because Neuky was later defending Quilford and also attacks Neuky for "resorting to wifom to explain [himself]." However, all in all, I am null on him.

Darth, could you explain what Neuky's flip will tell us about Quilford?

I don't like Scott's attack on Faraday in 355. He completely misinterpreted why Faraday was inclined to believe the claim, and it feels like he is reaching for a reason to attack him. I also think that his reasons for suspecting Charter are a stretch considering that Charter explained the reasons for his unvote clearly.

Vote Scott

[Zdenek]

Zd: Can you tell me why Faraday believed the claim?

He expected that if Quilford was scum, that he would have angrily claimed being a power role after being run up to L-1.

[Zdenek]

Zdenek, come over to the Empking wagon. We're serving flounder, and it doesn't even talk back unless you poke it with a fork.

Well, I do like sushi, but maybe mainly as a wasabi delivery system . . .

I find Empking's recent pedantry scummy, and useless. It reads to me like a way to avoid scum hunting, while attempting to muddy the waters of the case against him.

Also, why are you willing to follow Faraday's lead on Charter? Do you have reasons for your apparent townread on Charter independent of Faraday's input, and if so, what are they?

I have a town read on Faraday (mostly due to the fact that he's declaring so many people to me town, something that I think scum would be hesistant to do), so I am willing to trust his read on Charter. I don't really have a town-read on Charter, but my scum read on him isn't all that strong. In retrospect, it was mostly because of his rather soft interactions with Empking, so an Empking scum flip would make me more suspicious of Charter. The rest of my scum read on Charter was due to what don't seem to me to be particularly genuine interactions with Quilford around the time of Quilford's claim, and I still feel that way. However, since then, I agree with him on his read of Juls early post where she asked a bunch of questions, and I think that his attack on you seems reasonable.

With 5 days before the deadline and it being pretty clear that there isn't any interest in lynching Scott today, I am going to move my vote so that it is somewhere useful as the deadline approaches. I don't really want to lynch Quilford because how he reacted to the pressure on him struck me as town. I don't object to either an Empking or a Hiplop lynch, but I think that the Empking wagon looks better, so for those and reasons I've already stated,

Unvote
Vote Empking

[Zdenek]

so you have a town read on charty because faraday does? interesting

That is not what I said. If you look at the next line in post you quoted from you see that I said,

I have a town read on Faraday (mostly due to the fact that he's declaring so many people to me town, something that I think scum would be hesistant to do), so I am willing to trust his read on Charter. I don't really have a town-read on Charter, but my scum read on him isn't all that strong.

so why do you not have a town read on hiplop then beacause farady does? Same for your Quilford read if faraday still thinks Quilly is scum

First of all, the premises of your question are wrong because I don't have a town read on Charter, but I am less inclined to trust Faraday's read of Hiplop, than his read on Charter because part of his rationale for his read on Charter is that he liked Charter's position on the Quilford wagon prior to the claim, which is a fairly concrete reason, whereas his town read on Hiplop is because Hiplop's been careless, and he expects scum to be more careful, which is an argument that I find to be less convincing. Additionally, Charter's recent play gave me a somewhat better feeling about him than I had when I first replaced in. Whereas Hiplop hasn't done anything that makes me feel better about him.

why does empking look more scummy than Hoplip to you?

I've said why I was suspicious of Empking already, and as far a Hiplop goes, part of the reason is exactly the reason that Faraday gave.

I have found all of these questions to be mostly pointless and the foundations of some of them misrepresent the positions I have taken. Their answers should have been completely clear from my posts, and it feels like you've asked them just to try to get me to slip up and say things that could be construed as contradictory.

@Zdenek: What about Charter's accusations of me seem reasonable, as there are several, and why?

I think that Charter's suspicion of Juls' first post is reasonable, I agree that you don't really seem to be scum hunting, and I also agree with him about your comment about Neuky's flip. You've partly explained the last one, but looking back, you said,

Neuky—partly gut based on how he was explaining earlier actions; am thinking his flip may inform us as to Quil’s alignment as well.

which is quite a vague statement, but when you explained it, you clarified it as

If we were to have lynched Quil and he flipped scum, that would have solidified my scumread on Neuky.

so it feels like you made too strong an argument at first.

Anyway, at the moment, I'd be happy with a TwistedSpoon lynch, but I see no reason to make today so short, so I won't vote him now.

[Zdenek]

I think that Twistedspoon's reaction to the fake guilty investigation on Hiplop is null.

Vi, how did this post

No, especially with the post that came afterward.

make Twistedspoon's reaction to the fake guilty look worse to you?

I don't care to look for links until scum have flipped as usually its a bunch of seeing stuff that doesn't exist and null things. My top reads are still you, Quil and spoon.

Voting Charter and distancing from Spoon, while stating that he's not looking for links so that he doesn't have to deal with the fact that as competing wagons it's fairly unlikely that they are scum together.

[Zdenek]

Any reason you aren't voting?

If I was voting, I'd be voting Twistedspoon, but I see no reason to end the day quickly, so I'm happy to leave him at L-2.

@Zdenek: Please tell me how you can possibly see TS's reaction to the fake guilty as null.

Because I could see that reaction coming from town who was happy that his read was right or from scum who is pleased with the increased chance that town will mislynch.

Just to be clear I'll consider Vi's reasoning:

If hiplop claims Miller or yelps about a Framer, then Teaspoon is already in position to disbelieve it. If hiplop doesn't do any of the above, then clearly hiplop is the lynch du jour because lolguilty. No matter how hiplop responded, Teaspoon was going to park a vote on him.

I think that because of a general reluctance of towns to believe miller claims in general and that there is a pretty good chance (I expect, I've never actually experienced it) that towns would still lynch someone who had a guilty result on them if they claimed to have been framed, that this reaction is one that I could see coming from town already knowing that he wasn't going to believe whatever story Hiplop gave. This whole discussion is essentially pointless because I still think that TS is scum because of how he related with the Empking wagon at the end of day one, and nature of the questions that he asked me just before day one ended.

Zdenek 508 - The post you quoted doesn't actually demonstrate anything

I quoted that TS post because you said,

No, especially with the post that came afterward.

So presumably that post made his reaction seem worse to you.

I agree completely with DY that a TS scum flip would nearly clear Charter and that it would make Sloth look bad.

[Zdenek]

Both of you - why?

I didn't feel like ending the day then. I think town tends to benefit from extra discussion.

That said, I think Twisted's scum, and while I agree with Quilford's point about Scott's vote on Twisted, since Scott was on Charter before hand, the vote could be bussing after failing to get a different lynch through as scum pushing an easy lynch, so it doesn't change my opinion of the Twisted wagon.

Since there's not much else to talk about since my last post:

Vote Twistedspoon

[Zdenek]

The fact that both Faraday and Vi are alive bothers me. I still have a town read on Faraday from earlier, so if we are going to choose one of them to lynch, I'd prefer Vi. I suspect that whichever is scum left the other alive to make it possible to argue that it is the other that should have died already.

I don't think that we should mass claim today. I think having another day without outing our power roles is best for the town. Basically what DY said earlier.

Vi's speculation on Neuky/Fitz being shot multiple times is irrelevant because:

Yes. The kill flavour has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on what actually happened. It's just me amusing myself.

*charter - Was against Sloth and Quilford. If he was killed for being Town, that implicates Zdenek and DarthYoshi.

Or it implicates Sloth or Quilford wanting to kill off one of the people suspicious of him.

The analysis of Z being a potential TS partner is quite compelling. I will also say that I feel like I have a relatively decent idea of what Z's scumgame looks like, and in my experience, Z does not bus unless he absolutely has to. FoS: Zdenek.

Except that I planned to vote for him from my first post in the day, so while perhaps I wasn't voting for him, I definitely wanted him lynched.

I need to reread.

[Zdenek]

I don't have a lot of time, but I'd like us to reconsider the mass claim.

I had a backup vig shot and used it to kill Scott, so we probably aren't expecting two kills tonight.

[Zdenek]

So quilford is still prob town, just re-read twisted and I don't think they're likely buddies.

What gave you this impression?

I now that it might be outguessing the mod, but I think that the argument that I could be the SK is ridiculous simply because the presence of both a vig and an SK in a mini is unlikely, and it's definitely more unlikely than there being a back-up role, so arguments like Darth Yoshi's

Why is Z cleared for you? Has anyone even been in a mini normal lately where backups were used?

are terrible.

Vi/DY scumteam?

Maybe, but I'd prefer to lynch Vi.


Here is my take on things:
I still think that Faraday is town.
Hiplop is likely town because of his various interactions with people.
Quilford's claim plus his posting while he was being run up feel townish.

That leaves DY, Sloth and Vi.

It is doubtful that DY and Sloth are scum together.

So

Vote Vi

[Zdenek]

Vi, who do you think Sloth's buddy is?

[Zdenek]

Z, what's your current read on Sloth?

I have been struggling with this for each time I sit down to look at the game. Here are my thoughts, as ill-formed as they might be.

I understand the case on him around not voting Twistedspoon, and the change in his attitude about his lynch, going from: "He's not 100% scum in my eyes" to "I think that he's scum just like you do."

I also think that the point against him for asking not-scum-hunting questions so often is a good one.

However, he's also done some things that make me doubt that he is scum.

He was one of the first people to declare Quilford town after his claim, this was before Faraday declared him town, so he wasn't sheeping him. He'd also been pushing Quilford fairly hard, so it seems to be that scum might have been a bit more hesitant to give up on that lynch than he was.

Hiplop's just an active lurker, something which has a chance of coming from lazy town. But charter is doing actively scummy things, instead of hiplop's passively scummy behavior.

Here, Sloth goes after Charter rather than Hiplop, which I think is a more difficult task. That said, see below.

hmm as inevitable as this lynch may have appeared to be I was still willing to go scotty or hiplop

anyways, best we can do now is hope Empking flips scum (he was my 3rd highest scum read if you were wondering) until tommorow :/
hopefully I can get a post in later before the lock :0

If empking flips town this post becomes very scum-looking-for-town-cred-ish.

In this post he was one of the first people to attack TS for his comments around Empking's lynch. Scum could have just as well ignored it. Plus, scum would have talked about it over night, and I strongly suspect that they would have arranged for him to bus to avoid exactly this situation.

I also that it's pretty doubtful that he's your buddy or Quilford's buddy. I also think that based on some of his interactions with Vi, that he's probably not Vi's buddy. If I thought that Hiplop was scum, then I'd think that the two of them being buddies would be a possibility (Sloth has voted him a few times, but always unvoted pretty quickly and he seems to have dropped Hiplop as a suspect today), but I don't.

Overall, I am not really convinced by the arguments that he is scum. The one about his position on the TS lynch for the reason that I gave, and those questions could have come from enthusiastic town trying to help.

[Zdenek]

I'm not sure I agree, but regardless there's someone missing in this analysis.

I still feel that Faraday is town.

Anyway, after doing the write up on Sloth, I've decided that I should probably do the same for DY, Vi and Faraday, the first two because I currently think that they are likely scum, and Faraday because if he's scum, then just about everything I am thinking is doomed to be wrong. On that note, I'll start with Faraday.

Faraday:

His early play, in retrospect, wasn't particularly townie: he voted for Quilford without providing a reason. He drew attention to Jules without explicitly calling her scum, commenting:

Pre-apology: Some of this is out of order because I saw a couple things, noted them and then re-read the first 3 pages in more detail.

Is a little weird too.

However, he definitely was scum-hunting. He tried to determine if Hiplop was town or not, by trying to see if Hiplop would sheep his town read of Neuky.

Just because it might be useful, I'm going to keep track of his town reads. He decided that TS, Sloth, Charter and Hiplop were town (or at least townish) fairly early.

I'd have probably voted quilford for his first 2 posts, they appear like he's trying too hard to settle in the game, this is the same reason I later asked him the 'are you nervous' question, as that's pretty much how it came across to me, that he was uncomfortale and trying to settle in to the game. Vi's right, in that it seems like the response scum would be more likely to make, I'd have thought he'd have well just told me to fuck off, more-so.

I haven't really liked anything he's done since then either tbh, so yeah, wagonwagon on the wall who's the fairest of them all.

He finally gave a reason for voting for Quilford, and I don't particularly care for it because he was trying to push a lynch on RVS reasons which is never too good. He also said that there were other things, but never clarified wbat they were.

hey empy, what do you think of twistedspoon?

This post makes little sense coming from scum. It would be addressing a townie to put suspicion on to a scum buddy.

Fake investigation test of Hiplop. Unless they are scum together, this essentially clears Hiplop.

The things that bother me about his play are his push on Quilford without giving his reasons, and the fact that his reads have been fairly fixed since early in the game; the only one that seems to have fluctuated is his read of Hiplop. Also his read of Quilford changed after Quilford's claim. On the other hand, he is definitely scum hunting, and I agree with his choices of town reads (which makes me feel better about the fact that his reads have remained stable). I don't think that the question to Empking that I just mentioned makes sense coming from scum. I may as well that additionally add that his opinions seem genuine to me, which gives me a gut town read of him.

The bottom line is that I think he's town.

Anyway, I'll do DY and Vi this weekend.

[Zdenek]

Faraday, why do you think Darth Yoshi is scum?

[Zdenek]

POE mostly. He's not a town read.

Ok. After rereading, this is how I felt too. At least I couldn't write down a compelling case against him.

I think Setael is town.

If Hiplop is scum, you're almost certainly town, because you'd be bussing both your buddies simultaneously on D2 w/ the TS vote and the fake cop gambit. In my experience, scum more often just bus each other one at a time.

I disagree here. If Hiplop and Faraday are scum, then it means he was bussing one buddy while clearing Hiplop with the phony investigation result that they arranged during the night. However, that would mean that he is tying himself closely with his two scum-buddies, which isn't too likely either.

I agree with this last point made by Setael regarding Hiplop agreeing with the case against him.

I need to think about some things.

[Zdenek]

I disagree here. If Hiplop and Faraday are scum, then it means he was bussing one buddy while clearing Hiplop with the phony investigation result that they arranged during the night. However, that would mean that he is tying himself closely with his two scum-buddies, which isn't too likely either.

Don't you think that if they arranged it during the night, they'd have done it a little better? Do you think the plan was for faraday to fake a guilty and for hiplop to claim miller? And then, what? TS botched it up? So hiplop then decided not to claim miller? Read that interaction again. It makes no sense for faraday to be scum with both hiplop and TS.

I'm not arguing that it makes sense for Faraday to be scum with Hiplop and TS, but that DY's reason for thinking it was wrong.

[Zdenek]

Oh I see what you might be getting at: that if he was doing it, then he had to be trying to bus them both, and they weren't expecting it.

I don't really care about this right now.

[Zdenek]

That was nice game.
Thanks all.