Sorry in advance for the wall.
-xalxe too apologetic for votes and joking posts 12 and 16
-xalxe post 45 tries to throw suspicion on jahudo for putting idiot at 3 votes. xalxe unvotes - this is fishy. why is L-4 so terrible?
-Idiot calls him on this and xalxe accuses him of OMGUS... wha?
-Post 55 = possible connection between PT barnum and xtoxm.
-So then Xalxe says “Heh. Heh. ITT I fail at math; I honestly thought you were within idiotscum (not to be confused with idiotking) quickhammah range. Plus it was a random vote anyway, and we've got a bit more info now.” which I don’t buy at all. He had TWO votes - how could he possibly have thought he was within quickhammer range? And if he DID think that, he wouldn’t have felt it necessary to say the “plus it was a random vote anyway” part.
-andrew post 61 is strange. there are a lot of reasons to be voting xalxe at this point, but his telling jarudo not to answer a question aimed at someone else is not one of them.
-cecily’s 76 seems town
-PTBarnum 83 again looks like PT and xalxe could be buddies. He calls xalxe out for the crazy, but then distances himself/softens the accusation with the “I’m only pushing this point because...”
-mike mike post 107 feels town
-xalxe post 111 is scummy - sheeps cecily and then pretty much repeats exactly what she said in more detail and with weird things added to make it look like new content. (ie on the weird - that if pappums is scum, voided is most likely town unless this is a good pappum-voided gambit)
-mikemike is town. no scum would dare rolefish as blatantly as mike mike did in 112.
-Jinx 117 gives me town vibes. Unlikely that scum would post bragging that they were right about voided like this when they know he’s about to flip town.
-xalxe post 123 looks very much like xalxe knows voided is town
-xalxe post 126 - weird that he lists his scum reads as voided and pappums when it’d make more sense that one is town if the other is scum. Also, odd that he’s finally bringing up the post where PT Barnum defended him and calling it scummy.
-xalxe 143 wanting to end the day early. post reads as though he knows pappums is gambiting
-post 150 makes me think havingfitz could be town. I think scum, knowing voided would flip town, wouldn’t push ending the day early so hard
-xalxe defends pappums and says there is no scum motivation for his gambit (when there is, obviously. gambit for town cred, coming clean to avoid being lynched D2 after voided flips town.)
-neil calls him on this and says “How on EARTH could you make such a solid comment with so much clarity, unless of course you know who the scum and who the town are? In which case, that'd make you Mafia. Could this be a scum slip? Anyways may I ask you, apart from the obvious "reaction fishing" fallacy, how on earth do you see this at all to be town motivated?”
-It's unlikely that scum would defend a buddy so blatantly, so probably xalxe is scum and pappums is town
-Jahudo said in post 210 “If voided is town, scum had great incentive to get a hammer before pappums revealed his gambit. They would not have asked people to wait for pappums to answer questions, or asked the game to play out longer because a mislynch would mean an automatic day 2 wagon on pappums for not revealing the gambit sooner. Their best case scenario could be going into day 3 after two mislynches and minimal scumhunting. Even cautious scum wouldn't pass that up.”
-Then Jahudo’s logic in 243 is that scum would’ve felt comfortable on the wagon and comfortable calling for a quicklynch.
-I disagree completely and think the opposite of his conclusion is more likely. The fact that pappums had claimed an investigation would actually make scum more wary of being on the wagon, not less - the scum still knew voided was town (and therefore knew it was a gambit - either that or pappums is scum so they wouldn’t want to blatantly link themselves to it) so they would have been extremely hesitant - more so than regular wagons even. Xalxe and P.T. Barnum’s reactions are more cautious/scummy whereas Cecily and HavingFitz are less cautious/townie.
-end of p. 9 - neil is town
-Cecily p 242 townie
-Jerbs 244 is scummy. Avoids commenting on much and says he wants pappums killed for lying.
-PT post 270 says “Fair enough, though if I had been scum I probably would have assumed that voided was an SK. Pappum's claim as a gambit is still surprising to me.” This is interesting. I doubt any of the townies considered that pappums might have caught the SK. The fact that Pappums says this makes me wonder if this was his genuine reaction to Pappums gambit. He thought Pappums had found the SK. In spite of this, I think scum still would've been pretty hesitant with the wagon, since though they'd consider SK they'd know it was way more likely to be a gambit.
-Idiot’s reasoning in 281 and 283 for thinking fitz is scum is exactly why I think he’s town. He says “He absolutely believed that pappums was town when pappums claimed cop, which is just a poor conclusion to reach, given that it could have been (and was) a gambit or a lie.” Only a townie would do that, because scum would know it was almost definitely a gambit.
-neil 304 reads townie
-Pine’s first post 316 pretty much confirms pappums as town and pine as scum. 332 is scummy - wants to end day early with pappum lynch and says his gambit gained no info. BS.
-TO’s initial post raises flags for declaring pine town
-pine 364 scummy - discusses mafia strategy and then unvotes and revotes pappums. fluff disguised as content
-Pine 366 is scum guaranteeing a safe place on both leading wagons
-371 - Pine guages town’s support for his mislynch of pappums
-pine’s post 396 “Fitz has convinced me that Cecily should be suspect #1 on D2.” lolsheeping
-Jahudo’s post 401 re: Pine’s scumminess is win. This post is probably why Jahudo was NK'd. (*high five* for drawing a NK as VT, Jahudo.)
-Pine’s post 478 accusing TO of waffling and basically instructing her to vote (and the fact that TO ignored it completely) indicates a scum link between TO and Pine
-Pine’s 487 is uber scummy. He says “I'm worried that if we wait for a replacement on PR, they're going to use the slack we all subconsciously give to replacements to their advantage. In my mind, PR's spot is confirmed scum, and I am concerned that a replacement is just going to wriggle out of it.
-Hammer, please.” So not only is he trying to get pappums hammered before replacements can weigh in, didn't he earlier accuse others of being scummy for this exact thing (getting rid of a player about to be replaced)? - Need to look back at this.
-Post 492 Pine indicates the game has 2 scum (he says getting his scum read pappums lynched would make it a "one scum game". Especially where it seems more likely there'd be 3 scum, this reeks of inside info.
-Post 504 TO votes Pine without giving a reason and says she’ll move her vote “to where it will count” the next day. Pretty obvious and poor attempt at distancing.
-525 Nacho puts the first vote on Voided. I'm very interested in this wagon, as scum would be motivated to make it happen as they know Voided is a PR that will be confirmed D2.
-andrew had given me mostly town vibes but chkflip’s logic for supporting the voided wagon is weak.
-bub 540 is townie, but he should’ve gone with Pine instead of Neil.
-Pine 544 doesn’t address Bub’s points against him but instead disagrees that both wagons are unlikely to be scum.
-Neil asked voided if there’s a way to test her role claim. This was a townie mindset.
-Nacho had pretty solid reasons for restarting the Voided wagon. P.T. Barnum’s 573 is more sketchy. Mike makes a good point about it when he says, “If the neighbor-neighborizor thing was enough to lynch him on its own as you've said and said then why vote for Andrew here ? Seems a very woolly vote really..."
-Pine 577 again is scummy. Says he’s lurking because Nacho is a good player who might be able to worm out of the wagon. This makes more sense as a reason to be really active and posting to keep the pappums/Nacho wagon strong if he really thought he was scum, rather than a reason to hide. Pine should’ve just posted “I’m lurking because I’d absolutely love a Voided wagon but don’t want to draw suspicion by moving off Nacho and onto Voided, so instead I’ll just sit back and let things happen naturally.”
-So then post 580 Pine says Nacho is scum so he's taking everything he says with a bucket of salt, but he’s making absolutely no attempt to refute Nacho or engage him in any way.
-Pine 604 with mafia theory about neighborizer being a bad fakeclaim. Completely avoiding posting any content. Very clearly just sitting back and seeing which mislynch goes through.
-bub’s vote i get town vibes from, but TO’s in 608 is scumtastic. also says “Pine I’m not keen on” which is the perfect thing to say about a scum buddy that you just voted but certainly never planned to try to get wagoned. (Keep in mind that she cleared Pine as town upon first replacing in and I don't recall her ever giving a solid reason for losing that. If in fact, she had found something Pine did scummy at some point she'd have mentioned it and she'd have acknowledged his soft accusation that she was waffling.)
-So then we have Pine's hammer, which is possibly the scummiest hammer I’ve ever read. Says he’s going to post a case for Voided as town and then hammers her for saying she’d be willing to self vote to avoid a no lynch. It’s priceless that he says “I'm really, really torn now” and gives her playstyle instructions if she flips town and then immediately hammers.
TOWN
Cecily
HavingFitz
mikemike
pappums/Nacho
jerbs/bub
neil
Scum
Xalxe/Pine
jinxx/TO
Leaning scum - (maybe traitor?)
P.T. Barnum
Null read on everyone else.
vote: Pine
