Mini 1183: Mafiamatical Mathia - Game over!

[theplague42]

Oops sorry guys I didn't see that the game had started. Hi to Twisted, but I don't seem to know anybody else. I'll be catching up momentarily.

[theplague42]

So this game I'm trying something a little different. Before, I'm generally one of those players who write a wall of quotes and text maybe twice a week with some comments interspersed. Apparently a lot of people don't like reading walls So this game I'm going to try to either link or just reference specific parts instead of quoting everything I talk about. If I'm not being clear to what I'm referring to, please feel free to correct me. This is an experiment.

Ok so the first major thing seems to be Oopidstay's self-vote. It does strike me as slightly scummy, but I've seen town be rather stupid in the RVS so I'm putting it aside. The reactions are different. Juls' and implosion's reactions strike me as townie, don_johnson seems townie because of his insistence to skip the intense theory debate. I imagine scum would want to linger on an early, rather useless argument early on as long as possible.

TwistedSpoon's reaction does strike me as odd for the same reason that Oopidstay stated. He called it "contrived," I'd call it "manufactured." TS tries to portray himself as a townie by urging scumhunting so early and by referring to "us."

In post 43, TS aligns himself with Juls, trying to portray them both as town. His post 49 definitely reads like scum explanations or excuses.

Not sure about Juls' suspicion on implosion. I could see implosion as scum if Oopidstay was scum, but only that. Individually they are townie enough.

TS post 57: He sheeps on the implosion wagon for implosion sheeping. But wait, that's not even the best part.

Kalofer and Impolsion's votes look like complete overreactions and an easy ticket to go unsuspected through my wagon

Yeah, I'm uncomfortable with the implosion sheeping too. I've played with implosionscum before. this is similar

VOTE: implosion

Ummm TS quoted himself as justification for a vote.

Wickedestjr has made some good posts. Right now my top suspect is TS, but no other real reads other than that. I see Oopidstay and Juls as town.

[theplague42]

Come to think of it, Twisted could be his usual townie self but I'm not in the mood of letting go of scummy actions which lack justification. I'll keep my vote where it is for now. Plague, you've clearly focused your attention on TS, so why no vote for him?

Honestly, I think I was waiting until the end of the post to do it, then read implosion's post and I must have forgotten.

Vote: TwistedSpoon

[theplague42]

It's nothing really tangible; the feeling of a "manufactured" response is just that, a feeling. I can't really explain it other than a feeling.

As for the quoting yourself, it was phrased

exactly

as if someone else said a suggestion that you agreed with, so you voted implosion. You basically used yourself as a reason to vote implosion. Not only that, but you were sheeping onto the implosion wagon immediately after falsely accusing implosion of sheeping.

Yeah, I'm uncomfortable with the implosion sheeping too. I've played with implosionscum before. this is similar

This statement is really scummy.

[theplague42]

Teehee you spelled "apoligize" with an S, silly British jk

Okay I understand now. But you're still my top suspect for hypocrisy.

[theplague42]

It's not scummy, but I don't like how he didn't follow up on it.

[theplague42]

Wow that Kalofer wagon built up fast. Back at 2 or so.

[theplague42]

Sorry, still here. Busy day until about 8, but I'll catch up then.

[theplague42]

Okay interesting end to Day 1. Juls is town imo. Townies do stupid stuff like that all the time, and I just can't see her hammering her partner that early. It seems like she got frustrated/impatient and just didn't care what happened to herself afterward. A mafioso would probably be a little more concerned about what people thought of them. The "null leaning town" comment does make me a little suspicious though.

I think it's safe to assume that there's only one mafioso left, as a three-scum game would be at LyLo after a single mislynch. Unless there's no NK, but that wouldn't be a Normal I don't think.

[theplague42]

PS: Checking out Kalofer's relationships with other people.

[theplague42]

#0. Says hi to TS; says morth doesn't deserve it; votes me
#2. oopid and juls are town; implosion is null/town; vote TS because of oopid's reason; FOS on morthas; responds to don's question or something
#3. TS could be "usual townie self" but still scummy; asks me about not voting TS
#5. Two scummy things are morthas lurking and wicked voting w/o explanation

Ok and that's it. Just from this, I'm seeing a morthas scumpartner. Both accusations seem like distancing, as they're out of nowhere and have no real conviction behind them.

Vote: Morthas

for right now. I'm going to do an ISO on him right now to double-check, but Kalofer's posts definitely point to him IMO.

Preview edit: Hoppster is known for weird stuff? I didn't know that. It can't be too screwed-up of a setup, though, as it's a Mini Normal.

Are you understanding the traitor role correctly? A traitor isn't known to the scum, but plays for scum. It has no relationship with a neighbor at all, as the point of the traitor is that he 1. investigates as town, and 2. isn't known to the rest of the scumteam. They know he exists, but not who he is.

[theplague42]

First thing I saw is in Morthas' first post.

VOTE: implo
Lurking before the game even starts thus making me refresh this page so many goddamn times.

Hi Twisted ;D Not you Kalofer... you don't get a hi.

So he also says hi to TS, then says Kalofer doesn't get a hi. Interesting.

Just wanted to put that out there before finishing my ISO as it's very coincidental.

[theplague42]

Note. Before anyone says anything, Morthas' post was before TS, and Kalofer's was after. So it doesn't seem like just a normal response-type thing. But maybe I'm just reading into it too deeply. Rest of it will come in one big post, sorry for the multiples.

[theplague42]

@Twisted
Ah okay didn't know that. Nvm then on that; just me over-extrapolating again. Morthas' ISO.

#0. Votes implosion; says hi to TS; refuses to Kalofer
#1-2. Responds negatively to TS's posts.
#3. Interesting post; responds more to TS; fos on juls, implo, and TS; null on oopid

Kalofer [joking]Complete and utter scum[/joking], Screw you, Shiro is fabulous D: Null

Smoking gun IMO.

#4. Won't vote implosion
#6. Unvotes
#7. good questioning of wicked; asks Kalofer about read on TS; votes oopidstay
Not much else after that.

---

Just my imaginative tangent. For a 2 mafia plus 1 traitor game, the following quote:

Come to think of it,

Twisted could be his usual townie self

but I'm not in the mood of letting go of scummy actions which lack justification. I'll keep my vote where it is for now. Plague, you've clearly focused your attention on TS, so why no vote for him?

Is that because of meta or did you mean to say that you have mixed reads on him?

The bolded part is a code from Kalofer to Morthas saying that Twisted is the traitor. Just my imagination at work. Ignore it.

[theplague42]

if Morthas comes along are we expecting him to claim?

Sure. Depends on how fidgety he is at L-1.

[theplague42]

Good point, but I still think there are better suspects at the moment.

[theplague42]

I'm keeping my vote until he claims. I guess I can see the crumb, too. This would all be simplified if he claims.

Personally I think our best bet is to lookl at Kalofer's meager posts and look for distancing and other such things.

And since there's probably only one mafioso left, I'm thinking massclaim. Thoughts? Is it too early? We probably get three more lynches, four if there's another no-NK. If we can clear 3 or 4 people right now and more later tomorrow, we have an awesome chance of winning.

I'm thinking that it depends on why there was no NK. If it was a doc-protect, then we have 3 cleared right now. Seems like good chances.

[theplague42]

Unvote

I believe him. Don't have any more time right now.

[theplague42]

Alright so I'm reading now after skimming, but I have something to say to implosion. You're trying to use a null hypothesis to lynch me? That's not very logically sound. For those of you who don't know, a null hypothesis is a way to determine something by eliminating all other possibilities. Let's say that I think "X caused Y." But there's no way to prove that "X caused Y." But I can try to determine that "nothing but X caused Y" which is a null hypothesis. It's impossible to actually prove one; it can either be disproven or not disproven.

[theplague42]

Regarding don, Oopidstay makes a good case, but I think don is semi-confirmed town. Look back at the post 85 votecount and then don's post 91. There was only one vote on Kalofer at the time that don voted; Wicked's vote. There wasn't even any pressure towards Kalofer either. There was zero reason to bus/distance at that time.

How about Kalofer's post 5 ISO? Being forced to show people's scummy actions could lead him to distance from his partner before being hammered. Morthas and Wicked are the two he named; Morthas is confirmed-ish and Wicked is still towny. So never mind then.

[theplague42]

so don is either the bravest, boldest scum in the world for trying to lynch an 'obvtownie' or he finds a legitimate reason to be suspicious of Juls.
I believe the

latter

FTFY if I understand you correctly.

[theplague42]

Oopidstay - Was excited for the day to start back

?????

[theplague42]

Alright I just read Wicked's posts again. He random voted Kalofer at the beginning, then just put FoS out on other people. Definitely seems like a bus gone wrong; unvoting would've made him look really scummy if Kalofer had still been lynched. I'll have to double-check, but Wicked looks like a good candidate.

Even from a personal experience, the one time I played as scum my partner and I random-voted each other, then later attacked one another fairly heavily.

Juls has me convinced.

Vote: Wickedestjr

[theplague42]

Unvote

Vote: don_johnson

That's the

second

time you've jumped onto a wagon like that.

[theplague42]

Post 203. Oopidstay pointed it out in 204.

BTW don really needs to be lynched now. morthas already claimed neighbor and explained what happened in the QT.

[theplague42]

Also, that entire post is just really desperate speculation.

[theplague42]

Juls, morthas claimed neighbor and said what happened in their qt. No counterclaim. Therefore morthas is the neighbor. You couldn't be one with Kalofer then.

Can someone please see this?

[theplague42]

Alright stupid me.... I missed don's sentence saying it wasn't possible

[theplague42]

Unvote

Vote: Wickedestjr

Btw that's what happens when I multitask >_<

[theplague42]

unvote, vote: wicked

L-1. welcome back dude. please claim and explain.

i think its foolish to let juls slip by. her hammer only makes sense under certain conditions, and she has denied all of them. my hope is that if we have another night, scum call juls "soft claim bluff bullshit" and shoot her ass.

And yet you don't consider this opportunistic?

[theplague42]

I had a dream last night that this game had 4 scum. I was furious.

Wow you've been playing waaay too much

Someone just hammer already. Feel free to lynch me tomorrow if you feel the need.

[theplague42]

Sure. I need this to finish before my modded game starts.

[theplague42]

Why the stalling, Twisted? If the game continues with either three scum or town-Wicked, I vote you next.

[theplague42]

I'm certainly not the only one wanting a hammer right now.

[theplague42]

Definitely Wicked. Weak scumread on implosion. Suspicious but null is TS, while dj is straight null. You and oopid are probably town. Morthas is confirmed.

[theplague42]

Time? It's close.

[theplague42]

Hoppster?

Also, Wicked went from "I'm okay with my lynch" to "The case against me is worthless" to "This is a waste of a lynch." Though you'd like to know.

[theplague42]

Edit: Though

t

[theplague42]

We're lynching TS tomorrow if Wicked is town. He's talking like there will definitely be tomorrow, plus he wants to popcorn/chain lynch me even though he said he didn't want to chain-lynch to Wicked.

[theplague42]

Still no kill? Weird.

Vote: TwistedSpoon

[theplague42]

Now implosion.

[theplague42]

Juls, then me, then TS.

[theplague42]

I'm VT as well.

[theplague42]

Still doesn't clear you, though.

[theplague42]

The no-NK could be a setup thing. Or not in mini-normal?

[theplague42]

I don't see how that would work.

Also, there could be a purpose no-NK for your first idea set.

Ok what do we have.

One investigate, and one jailkeep. Morthas is confirmed.
Town-oopid clears me and TS.
don roleblocked and protected morthas and implo.

Me, Juls, and implo all claimed VT. I think that's everyone

@don
But we don't know if you are really town or not. I believe you I think, but not 100%.

[theplague42]

sorry I meant everyone except TS.

[theplague42]

plague, you are conveniently forgetting mafia could have a godfather. You aren't 100% cleared.

Good point.

[theplague42]

Ok I had a thought about don blocking oopid this morning and didn't get to post it. At the moment, I can't think of any way for that to clear both at once. If someone else can, then feel free to post it. A thought I had was to randomly block/no-block. don would random.org and then follow that action. oopid would have to report whether or not he was blocked. If they do it at exactly the same time, we have a good chance of confirming both of them, or catching a scum. Thoughts?

Preview edit: That works like I thought.

[theplague42]

So do we pick TS's plan or don's?

Preview edit: How would that confirm, Juls? I'm confused.

[theplague42]

Juls scum is looking less likely with all the 'I'd rather be lynched posts.' the same can be said for implosion too

I'm buying the jailkeeper claim as no kills occured
I'm also buying the cop claim as oopid dropped his case on me D2

the way i see it, implosion would not have been targeted for a nightkill. The jailkeeping must have been to stop him commiting the kill

VOTE: implosion

1. Juls could be lying. I doubt it, but ya never know
2. If no kills occurred b/c of jailkeeper, then we don't know if it was because of the roleblock or protect.

[theplague42]

@implo
I'm talking about how TS is using the no-kills as justification for believing don's claim.

[theplague42]

I'm willing to be lynched. I'll be V/LA from 6/27-7/2 anyways, so I'm good with that if it's necessary.

[theplague42]

What purpose does the jailkeep serve other than preventing the NK!

[theplague42]

Sorry that was supposed to be a question mark. Stupid iPhone.

Also, I get it. An NK clears the jailed person, no-NK doesn't clear them but keeps PRs alive. Gotcha.

[theplague42]

I say implosion first, just because I know I'm town. But I'm okay with myself as well since I'll be gone for the week.

[theplague42]

Actually, if all of our plans fail if there's a GF, then why even lynch me? The plan would fail if there is one, so we might as well confirm me and TS. Thoughts?

[theplague42]

Also, godfather doesn't really screw every plan. We have to use a combination of role-info and scumhunting to find scum. We are definitely not going to play follow-the-cop.

But the cop's results are still integral to the plan, are they not?

[theplague42]

Hammer? Are we sure of what we're doing?

[theplague42]

I'm not a GF. But whatever.

Unvote

Vote: implosion

[theplague42]

Dunno. Where's Hoppster?

[theplague42]

Alright I'm back. Catching up on the thread now.

[theplague42]

i'm completely retarded when it comes to speculating roles, planning lynches

Same for me.

5 players. no lynch makes the game harder. we may as well lynch.

Not necessarily harder, but it would certainly not make a difference unless the kill was prevente.

i want to hear what plague had to say. i would jail plague or spoon. i agree with juls, if morthas is scum then he wins. if juls is scum then she wins,

but i'm not letting plague or spoon win this

, so lets figure this out between them.

Such spite.


I'm thinking TS is the last scum. He has been tunneling me the entire day. Lynch him and jail me, does that work?

[theplague42]

Oh well. Better catch him tomorrow.

[theplague42]

Oh well. Better catch him tomorrow.

Really?

Yep.

[theplague42]

I'm getting a feeling plague is trollin ;p

Nope. Just wait for Hoppster.

[theplague42]

That would be unsportsmanlike and make me not want to play with him EVER again.

Which is why I'm telling the truth.

[theplague42]

I'm definitely a VT. I wouldn't do anything to alienate anyone.

[theplague42]

Plague, If you're not scum...

I'm not. I wouldn't be cruel and screw with people until the mod came back.

[theplague42]

But you are.

[theplague42]

oh, and if hoppster can get away with this then my next mini normal will have 8 millers, 2 cops and 3 mafia godfathers.

I wanna play!

Great job town! Although I agree that mafia neighbors are a little unusual, obviously they're beatable.

[theplague42]

Thread-necro fail.

Link to Role PMs added to OP. Locking this now.

~ Hoppster