Mini 1195: The Beehive Mystery (GAME OVER)


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Post Post #50 (isolation #0) » Fri Jun 24, 2011 5:28 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Interesting. I think I'm going to like this game.

Anyways, I usually ask some questions to get the ball rolling in games then make a totally exaggerated case on something like word choice on page 1 in order to get the ball rolling further. My job has been done for me, it seems.

I would like to ask one question of everyone, though. What is your timezone? I like to take note of those outside of USA times as they generally post at strange hours. It's always good to know when waiting for a post from someone in Australia that they'll likely be posting in the middle of the night. I'm in PDT right now, which is GMT-8 or something like that.

The initial case on Beck was an anti-RVS case. There was zero ground for any real suspicion, and his joke was just a joke. I actually chuckled a little when I saw that as the first post. The initial case on Yank has, by itself, little to no true value in a case. However, should Beck flip scum, I agree that it is an associative tell.

Aside from other posts, I'd like to dissect post 49 a bit:
Yank wrote:
No, you didn't state them. You over-analyzed my first post and then sat back and let the bandwagon form. Herp. I mean really, pushing for a quicklynch on day 1?

Do you really see anything as pushing for a quick lynch? He stated suspicion against you, voted for you, then stated that his vote needed no further clarification. I haven't seen him do anything remotely like pushing for a quick lynch.
Yank wrote:
Are you trying to get lynched tomorrow?

Minor deterrent attacks like these more frequently come from scum who need to attempt to dissuade people from voting them than town who is genuinely innocent. I do it subconsciously as scum.
Yank wrote:
If no one can see the ridiculousness behind your case now, I can only hope they see it when I pop up dead townie, tomorrow.

Town also rarely needs to state that they're town, particularly this early. Another thing I do subconsciously as scum.

The rest is a hell of a lot of AtE. You sure seem to be nervous about town's push against you. All of Yank's previous posts have been nullish, but I'm seeing a lot of scum mindset coming from 49.
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Post Post #147 (isolation #1) » Sat Jun 25, 2011 5:35 am

Post by ICEninja »

sub wrote:
I'm wondering if you have any particular examples in mind when you say you do these things subconsciously as scum. It's certainly plausible that these are subconscious scum tics, but I'd feel more comfortable accepting your arguments if you could provide some examples.

It's kind of a lot of effort to back up a page 3 vote. Should I continue to use such tells in a vote closer to lynch, I'll go through the effort of linking to posts from my past games.

Sleepy, posting 10 times in a row is a bit irritating. I agree with going for the wall post with spoiler tags. Also, I'd like to point out that your entire premise of scum hunting seems to be "I don't like this, + scum points". A lot of the things you gave someone scum points for didn't really merit the scum points.

Spoon wrote:
the act of ending RVS usually causes you to have developed reads from RVS and thus don't need to make a random vote but can vote a scumread

in other words, RVS isn't when random votes are, but Random votes are in RVS
we only RVS at the start of a game because we have no reads at the start and when there are no developed reads then RVS is the only way to go

I'm a bit confused about this argument between yourself and Sleepy. There really is no black and white line where you can say "post 56 is RVS and post 57 is out of RVS" unless some very significant post caused the change. It is generally a gradual thing that happens over the course of the first 2-5 pages. We happened to be a 2 page game. I can say with confidence that page 3 contains a lot of non-RVS content.
Sleepy wrote:
Acro is a VI. Of course he'll do anti-town things.
But I want to see him post before this convo continues.

Whoa whoa whoa. You're already calling someone VI? What justification do you have to believe he is bad town as opposed to bad scum? Right now I read the slot as alignment neutral bad play. How does that give you any indication that he is town?

And Spoon, how does that give you any indication that he is scum?

I definitely find the willingness to write someone off as VI much much more suspicious though.
Beck wrote:
The fact that it was pretty obvious RVS ended as soon as people reacted to my comment, [/u]he later claims it hadn't ended.[/u]

No, he didn't. He pointed out that someone was refusing to vote on page 2 (which can easily be argued as still being in RVS). I did, however, also get confused by one of his statements to jump to the same conclusion that you did.
Spoon wrote:
scum need pressure to slip

this is basic mafia

While I think pressure is a great way to induce scum slips, I disagree that they need pressure to slip. Scum makes bad votes, bad cases, lousy bus attempts, and get themselves outed in VCA all the time. I don't think town NEEDS to be voting at all times in order to catch scum. That being said, if someone isn't trying to find scum, then they probably aren't playing with a town motivation, which probably means they aren't town.
Tommy wrote:
This sounds like an admission of dishonesty, but I've had to get used to people playing weirdly in the early game, so on its own this doesn't damn you.

I do the exact same thing in virtually every game I play in, town OR scum. I simply dislike screwing around on the first few pages. It is a complete null tell.

I feel like this whole Sleepy vs Spoon thing is town on town. They're both trying to find scum, and both getting really irritated at each other, and translating their irritation in to scum reads. I feel like Spoon was more justified in his vote than Sleepy was, but I'm seeing town motivation behind some of Sleepy's posting as well.

I do not like at all how Yank seems to have disappeared off the radar as soon as pressure on him let up. All you've done lately is complain that Ivan is charging a bandwagon on you, which by the way never got anywhere near lynching, and tried to redirect attention off of you. It just feels like scum play to me.
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Post Post #216 (isolation #2) » Sun Jun 26, 2011 10:49 am

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Don't have as much time to devote to Mafia as I used to, but I'm mostly keeping up. Post 200 is really good, and I'm not satisfied with Sleepy's response. He seems to be flailing a bit. I'm starting to feel like Sleepy has been false scum hunting after all. I'll look at him and his scum hunting attempts in more detail soon, and come back with a solid stance on him.
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Post Post #292 (isolation #3) » Mon Jun 27, 2011 3:54 pm

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Alright I'm gonna do some typing as I catch up. I normally do this in a word doc then from my notes make a post, but since time is at a premium right now, I'll just go directly to here.

END OF PAGE 9------------------
I don't like Ivan's attack on sub. His entire reason for voting sub is that "your premise is fine, but one of the 2 conclusions you arrived at is false", and gives mediocre reasons why it is false. You didn't really prove why sub's possible conclusion that they are both scum is false, as that is mostly the impression I got from him. I find myself nodding along with sub's 224, as it echos a lot of my thoughts.

I liked Ivan's attack on Yank initially, but it seemed for weak reasons. It was also quite vocal, and seems to have died off. Ivan, what is your current opinion of Yank?

PAGE 10---------------------
Acronach wrote:
it's not meant to be an example of us defending eachother, its meant to show you why sleepy is calling me a VI. obviously i'm not, but i'm showing you why he would have that impression.

Something about this is really bugging me. He really does seem to be attempting to show people WHY Sleepy views Acro as a VI, which just doesn't sit well with me. Sleepy should be the one trying to provide evidence why he thinks Acro is a VI, not the other way around.
Acronach wrote:
i know defending him makes us look like scumbuddies. although he may be scum, i'm not. sleepy is in no way clear, i am in no way clear. i would be happy to take one for the town and be the first lynch, but i hope it doesn't come to that.

Holy cow there is no reason for town to ever say anything like this in the current situation, period. The only reason anyone would ever want to say this is an attempt to gain town credibility unnecessarily. Simply awful.

Subgenius continues to make goodposting. Definitely my most solid town read at the moment.

Definitely don't like Acronach's 233. He counters a "this is WIFOM" with something very rude, then continues his "you must be a complete idiot" trend.

Koolz didn't really take a single stance in his list, really. I didn't see any "this guy looks suspicious" or "vote: ____". He implies
mild
suspicion on Yank, and possibly on Ivan, but nothing concrete. Definitely not liking this so far.
Beck wrote:
I stand by my statement that Yank is the one deserving of pressure, and the Acro wagon seems like a counter wagon to distract from Yank.

Yank has done nothing useful
Yank is too concerned with how people think of him
Yank has fos'd 2 people (iirc) that have voted or FOS'd him first
plus his comment about me being a jester, instead of being scum is pretty damning as grey pointed out

I definitely agree with this. Yank had some very mild pressure put on him, and reacted significantly. It really deserved more pressure, but that never happened.
Acronach wrote:
kk, well any arguments you make about the VI thing are irrevelant. deal with it.

No. They aren't. And he stated why. Deal with it.
Acronach wrote:
if im town and SK is maf, why would he defend me? if SK is town and im maf, why would i defend him? using this logic, it's extremely unlikely that we have opposing alignments. not impossable, but unlikely.

Scum defends town so that town thinks scum is town. It is called buddying.
rblinker wrote:
However, then only reason I’m not voting yet is like beck pointed out, its weird there defending each other, if they were to be scum, its throwing themselves out there too much so I’m not sure for a vote just yet.

So you instead prefer to talk about what is going on instead of really calling anyone out for anything, and refusing to put a vote down. How, exactly, do you intend to find scum? Are you waiting for someone else to do it? If you're town, how do you know that someone else is town?

PAGE 11----------------
Beck's 252 is essentially why I'm still voting for Yank, as in addition the points I made early in the game still apply.

Tommy's 256 makes a good point. Acronach is definitely high on my suspects list.

Wow Sleepy, definitely not impressed by your play at all. I'm having a harder and harder time finding legitimate scum hunting coming from you.

Not much on page 12 so far.

CONCLUSIONS-------------------
(Must read if you skipped everything else)

My 3 strongest scum reads right now are Yank, Sleepy, and Acro in no particular order. I currently feel like the most can be achieved with my vote where it currently is, on Yank. I'm holding reservations for Spoon, Ivan, and Koolz, but these players are not preferred lynches, whereas the others are. I'm not impressed by rblinker's play so far, or how much Greymarble is lurking, considering it is a hydra account. They are nullish reads though. I'm not in any way open to a day 1 lynch of the rest of the players.
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Post Post #365 (isolation #4) » Tue Jun 28, 2011 4:06 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Normally I like to go in to depth about my cases and explain the thought processes behind everything, but honestly.

3 more votes on Yank and let's call it a day. Seriously.
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Post Post #382 (isolation #5) » Tue Jun 28, 2011 6:20 pm

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A mason role would explain the defensiveness and the concern over being lynched. The main reason I've been so heavily supporting a Yank lynch wasn't his reaction to the pressure, but his reaction to the pressure being lifted. He vanished completely, and did zero scum hunting. The vote he came back with was worth less than his lurking.

I was initially inclined to believe it was a fake claim, but I don't think scum gains much from claiming mason at this point. The likelihood for a counter claim outing partners is minimal, and its a confirmable role, which is always more dangerous for scum to claim. Furthermore, I have evidence based on an ongoing game that I will not discuss that leads me to believe Yank's claim, considering the circumstances.

Yank has been scummy, to be perfectly honest I don't mind the fact that scum has to spend their night kills to dismantle the mason team.
Unvote
.

Right now I'm inclined to put my vote on Sleepy, but Sleepy took his vote off Yank before the claim which looks really good for him if Yank is indeed town. I'm willing to give Yank the benefit of the doubt currently, so I'm also going to run with the assumption (on the premise that Yank is town) that Sleepy is town as well.

Vote Acronach
for pushing for an early claim without putting down your vote (possibly attempting to stay safe) while already having been one of my solid scum reads for reasons posted earlier.
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Post Post #388 (isolation #6) » Tue Jun 28, 2011 6:52 pm

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Sub is correct.

Everyone needs to get their votes off of Yank right now. He could be the scummiest player in the game by far and not lynching him would still be the best play.

Once again, I have evidence that I cannot share due to a game ongoing that fully supports the validity of his claim, especially considering the situation, and I will be happy to explain to everyone exactly what I mean postgame.
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Post Post #425 (isolation #7) » Wed Jun 29, 2011 4:42 pm

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Yank wrote:
There is so much WIFOM in the case against me saying that 'Yank is scum because he thinks there could be a 3rd party, only scum would do that, why would a townie say that?" that I can't even begin to understand why. Of course I'm leery and think alot of you are scummy.

You, like about 2/3rds of MSers, incorrectly use the phrase WIFOM. People seem to think that WIFOM indicates a case is uncertain, which is false because every case without power role information is uncertain. I'll not get in to the correct usage of WIFOM unless someone asks me, but my suggestion would simply be to not use the term. It's overused and misused, and throwing that out there all the time just helps scum more than anyone right now.

Ivan I see your point about sub, and perhaps I'm too quick to give out a town read on him. However, considering the strength of better wagons, I'm really not feeling like the argument you bring against him is lynchworthy compared to the points against, sat, Acronach, especially considering what you've pointed out is EXTREMELY outdated. What do you feel about the more prominent
current
wagons? Please consult as a pair before responding to this.
What Acronach would have said if he was town wrote:
well, looks like we're not lynching yank for
some reason
really solid reasoning
even though
because on the extreme off chance
if he is maf in stead of mason
we just let the most obvious fucking maf get away with being scummy as hell.
he's already caught and we don't have to worry about it day 1.


Ivan wrote:
unvote vote Greymarble
You need to post a lot more than you have. You are one of the most experienced and skilled players here, and I am extremely disconcerted by your lack of content so far. At this point, your play does not in the least bit line up with your town meta.

This was Ivan's best post of the game so far.

GM, you're a hydra of 2 good players. How can BOTH of you be not playing? Seriously.
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Post Post #427 (isolation #8) » Wed Jun 29, 2011 5:38 pm

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Tommy wrote:
Sure, though I think the case on Acronach depends on SleepyKrew being scum. There are three parts to it.

In my eyes there is a fourth part to it, largely in how scummy some of his posting (specifically on page 10, some good examples would be how he ends post 230 and his response to sub in post 233) has been. While it's hard to make a solid case out of this sort of material, Acronach has really spent a lot of time defending and being defensive of strange things, while having spent very minimal effort finding scum in the process.
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Post Post #428 (isolation #9) » Wed Jun 29, 2011 5:41 pm

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I'd also like to request an expedited second prod of Greymarble if he doesn't post reasonably early tomorrow. Being caught up to page 5 when we're on page 19 is not at all acceptable. The fact of there being 2 heads to this hydra, with 2 people to be catching up, makes this doubly unacceptable.
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Post Post #429 (isolation #10) » Wed Jun 29, 2011 5:47 pm

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I apologize for double posting, but I'd like to further point out that GreyICE has made 11 posts today, in multiple games, and Llamarble has posted today promising a catchup tonight in another game.
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Post Post #466 (isolation #11) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 4:11 pm

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Alright this is all I'm going to say. Mason teams can have negative stipulations in their role PMs that weakens the team. Do not ask me to clarify, as I will not do so. Just seriously, we aren't lynching Yank today. He claimed a VERIFIABLE town power role on day 1. You simply
do not lynch verifiable town power role claims on day 1
. Period.
Grey wrote:
TOWN-
Greymarble

Lol.
Grey wrote:
Probtown:
Acronach

LOL
Grey wrote:
Scum:
Ice
Tommy
Yank - pending claimcheck.

LMAO.

I'm sorry, dude. You're so ridiculously off it's funny. Let's see some reasoning why Acronach is town. Let's see some reasoning why you think Tommy and myself are scum. Finally, we aren't lynching Yank today so don't even bother.

I usually don't post like this, but I'm in a rediculously good mood (I'm a salesman and I just made about 2 grand in commission and bonuses today) so bear with a little more arrogance than usual.
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Post Post #470 (isolation #12) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 5:10 pm

Post by ICEninja »

How can you verify mason? Seriously?

Like, no joke. You're ASKING that?
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Post Post #472 (isolation #13) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 6:30 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Mod, an updated vote count at your earliest convenience would be appreciated.
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Post Post #489 (isolation #14) » Sat Jul 02, 2011 4:58 am

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Beck, if there really is a 3 man mason team, how long do you think it will take before one of them dies? We're GOING to have a mason flip at some point or another if he's telling the truth. If we have masons and they don't die, Yank is very obviously scum who just bought himself some time. If we have masons who don't want to out themselves yet and counter claim, giving up one of their own to prove Yank's guilt, then he's obviously scum who just bought himself time.

If he's scum, he is going to get lynched this game 100%. We really don't have to worry about that AT ALL right now. If he's a true town mason, it benefits town to force scum to choose between killing a strong town target or the scummy confirmed town. Lynching Yank benefits town very minimally, as his likelihood for flipping scum is low, and the cost to town for lynching a claimed mason day 1 is very high indeed.

Acro is V/LA, will do nothing to defend himself, and is probably going to flip scum. He's given up. Let's wait for Greymarble to try to explain himself away from being day 2's lynch after his truly pathetic catchup, then whoever wants to can drop the hammer.
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Post Post #492 (isolation #15) » Sat Jul 02, 2011 6:42 am

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Tommy wrote:
I agree with ICEninja, though I confess I don't follow these bits:

I'll do my best to clarify.

There are 4 possible scenarios:
1)Yank is a town mason, telling the truth. In this case, it is absolutely inevitable that he will be cleared before lylo by 1 of 2 things: his own death and flip of mason, or a mason buddy's flip who can vouch for him. At some point, day 3 is usually a good time, the mason team will claim and clear Yank, giving us a ridiculously small poor of possible scum to lynch from.

2)Yank is lying scum and there is a mason team present in town. In this case, at some point one of the town masons will come forward saying "I am a town mason, and Yank is not in our mason team, lynch the lying scum!" and we lynch Yank. Town masons absolutely need to do this by day 3, day 2 would be preferable. Day 2 is absolutely required if only a single mason pair is left alive, as if we have a 2 man mason team that dies before outing Yank he could be incorrectly cleared as town.

3)Yank is lying scum and there is no mason team present in town. In this case, Yank's scum buddies can obviously not clear him as mason as they would out the entire scum team and give town a 100% victory. Yank stays alive night after night with no one to vouch for him and by day 3 or so it becomes crystal clear that he's lying scum and we lynch him. Gain for town.

4)Yank is lying town. I wouldn't normally include this, but I've played with too many fucking idiots who claim a power role as VT. If this is the case, Yank needs to
immediately
retract his claim, and admit to being a VT, as VTs claiming power role literally wins games for scum.

Hopefully there is no situation I've missed, or variation that is negative for town. Currently, not lynching Yank is very obviously the best move.
Tommy wrote:
Joint first: Acronach and SleepyKrew, for mutual defense, the 'bus' slip and question evasion.

I'm not really sure how you can declare them equally scummy when Sleepy jumped off the Yank wagon right as it was building steam (perfect time for opportunistic scum to be on a wagon, he was on early enough to evade suspicion) when Acro places an incredibly scummy vote on Yank at a poor time.
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Post Post #494 (isolation #16) » Sat Jul 02, 2011 7:48 am

Post by ICEninja »

We obviously aren't going to be confirming Yank during day 1, but I would be wildly amazed if Yank's alignment is still in question by the end of day 3.

Mod, would it be possible for you to prod specifically GreyICE, as opposed to the hydra account? Or maybe if it isn't an official prod, then perhaps a gentle reminder that he really needs to be playing in this game or replacing out.
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Post Post #500 (isolation #17) » Sat Jul 02, 2011 1:10 pm

Post by ICEninja »

I'm almost inclined to vote Grey, I'm just not sure I want my vote off of Acro.

Decisions are hard sometimes.
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Post Post #556 (isolation #18) » Tue Jul 05, 2011 3:35 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Grey wrote:
So when I'm hammering somebody I think is town no explanation is required? I am confused.

When you're hammering town while having scum suspects you've said literally
zero
about, it doesn't matter if you give an explanation or not, it's scummy as hell.
Grey wrote:
Ice is scum though.
People he's wanted to lynch (me, Acro, Yank) all town.

I wanted pressure on Yank. I found very logical reasons to not lynch him. I don't know you're town, so you can't throw that at me. Sure I mislynched Acro, and was one of the people leading the wagon, but can you honestly say everyone on that wagon was scum? Have you never mislynched town before on day 1? I was wrong, and I admit it. It happens.
Grey wrote:
His reaction to Yank's masonclaim was "OMG ABANDON SHIP" with minimal trepidation despite weirdness of triplemasons 'cause he knew Yank was telling the truth.

If by that you mean:
What Grey really meant wrote:
His reaction to Yank's masonclaim was
"OMG ABANDON SHIP"
"Here are some extremely logical and well thought out reasons to not lynch Yank today"
with minimal trepidation
because of how sound the logic was
despite weirdness of triplemasons
'cause he knew Yank was telling the truth.
'cause he knew Yank was either telling the truth or was scum that was caught anyway


Then you're dead on.

That being said, you're contributing a lot of content now and actually explaining your reads, which decreases my suspicion of you somewhat. You also put forth a fairly good reason to vote Tommy.
Beck wrote:
Why does Acro's flip change SK's allignment?

SK was defending acro, acro clearly was just naive.

There was no town motivation to defend somebody you don't know their allignment.

SK did this.

Took the words right off my keyboard. That being said, I STILL think SK's backtracking off of Yank's wagon at the time he did it was a towntell, so I'm a bit torn about him. I'm inclined to give the replacement some time to contribute before I solidify my read of this player slot.

I don't like how Tommy no longer thinks the SK slot is scum based on Acro's flip. I also dislike how he's yet to place a vote. This read went from leaning town to leaning scum.

I don't like how Ivan has been posting lately, and it is detracting from the game. Unfortunately, that's an idiot read, not a scum read, so I can't exactly vote him for it.

I have a gut scum read on TS, but I won't place a vote on him unless I can actually make a case out of it. I'll need to try and qualify my gut read.
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Post Post #563 (isolation #19) » Tue Jul 05, 2011 6:50 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Ivan wrote:
You think our play is detracting? I'm sorry to hear that. We mostly just wanted to give you a target you can foreshadow your suspicions on for later. But by all means, continue pretending that you have nuanced, evenhanded opinions of everyone, its bound to buy you town cred in the long run.

Honestly, this is exactly the kind of posting that pisses me off. If you keep doing frustrating things that aren't related to finding scum, yeah, that's eventually going to turn in to a scum suspicion because doing it consistently would be playing to a scum win condition, as opposed to the town win condition of finding scum. Don't give yourself an out to say "look I knew this guy was going to eventually call me scummy! See???" when you're doing stupid shit like this.

I do have, to an extent, nuanced and evenhanded opinions of everyone. I'm not going to let your sarcasm take that from me. Does that mean I know everyone's alignment? Of course not, but I sure as hell have my opinions and I'd say they're pretty good.

Oh and pro tip, town doesn't need to gain town cred, town needs to find scum. Notice that in my posts (this one exempt, as it is responding to your mudslinging) I'm trying to find scum. I haven't seen much of that from you. So how about you do actually go through some careful reading and find something useful to dig on, as opposed to throwing out pointless and distracting comments that do nothing to find scum and everything to irritate people and make this game less enjoyable.
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Post Post #594 (isolation #20) » Wed Jul 06, 2011 4:28 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Alright in reviewing day 1, I feel like I've got a stronger sense of who is probably scum right now.

Da Koolzzy hasn't impressed me at all. Let's take a look at some of his posts in more detail.
post 213, which was his second post of the game, has some preliminary reads on people. Unfortunately they're almost all useless. Here's a simplified rundown on his reads on everyone:
Sleepy - town, for meta reasons.
Beck - lurker but not scummy/third party.
Spoon - leaning town, but slightly scummy.
Ivan - no actual read, just a strange comment.
Me - too quiet to read (fair enough, at that point in the game).
Rblinker - lurker with reasoned posting, but wait it's just mafia discussion.
Tommy - a lot of weird comments that involves no read.
Yank - "something fishy going on".
Acro - the only true scum read given by Koolzzy's post.
Confid - lurker, no read.

All I see are a lot of weak opinions, statements that don't really make sense or contribute, and little or no direction. This post is a prime example of appearing to scum hunt without actually doing it.

In post 288, Koolzzy puts down a weird vote for Spoon. While it is definitely a good policy to not answer questions directed at others, what Spoon did wasn't exactly scummy. The vehemence with which the vote was placed simply doesn't track with the reason for voting, which leads me to believe that he was looking for a place to park his vote without actually having scum hunted much.

Then he does the weird "wait don't hammer yet!" then tries to hammer Yank in post 386. He seems to have a good case, but hardly even addresses the mason claim. It really looks like an attempt to look town while having hammered a mason.

The rest of the day he doesn't really do anything else. As Tommy pointed out earlier in the page, Koolzzy advocates then backtracks on policy lynching.

That all being said, head #2 seems to have just popped in and is promising some content. I've decided that ultimately I'll hold off on any Koolzzy votes until after this promised content. If I don't see the content coming, or the content provided isn't solid scum hunting, I'll definitely move forward on voting here.
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Post Post #603 (isolation #21) » Thu Jul 07, 2011 3:52 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Holy crap everyone needs to seriously go back and read my post again, and actually carefully this time. All of those reads I posted were summaries of what Koolzzy said HIS READS were in his second post of the game. These are not my own opinions. I wasn't
at all
ambiguous about it, and it really shows that people are skimming my posts instead of reading them. That's what happens.
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Post Post #604 (isolation #22) » Thu Jul 07, 2011 5:12 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Koolzzy wrote:
Putting stuff together between heads. Bigger stuff on the way.

Be aware that expectations are quite high for your next post. You did very little to dissuade my suspicion. Nothing, actually.
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Post Post #605 (isolation #23) » Thu Jul 07, 2011 5:56 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Alright, the game is over now, and since Yank flipped vanilla mason, I feel comfortable sharing my information before post-game. In New York 131 (horrible game, just read the set-up not the whole thing) the mason team was weakened by having 2 of the members being lovers. When one of us was night killed, the other died as well. Granted a mini is going to have fewer town power roles than a large, a weakened mason trio isn't strong at all.

That is why I believed Yank's claim so readily, because if a normal large game allowed weakened masons, I'm sure a normal mini would as well. There are other possibilities for a weakened mason team, but I've probably already given scum more help than I should have, and am only saying this much because I practically went ahead and told scum to look at my ongoing game to find out what I was saying anyway.
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Post Post #610 (isolation #24) » Fri Jul 08, 2011 2:59 pm

Post by ICEninja »

I'm very quickly running out of patience for our lurkers. I'll be buying in to Beck's idea if they don't start actually playing, with the obvious preference of lynching Koolzzy.
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Post Post #616 (isolation #25) » Sat Jul 09, 2011 6:54 am

Post by ICEninja »

Alright Koolzzy hasn't followed through on anything. My patience is done. Play or hang.
Vote Da Koolzzy
.

I approve of the jily votes as well, and would consider her the second best place to have a vote right now.
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Post Post #620 (isolation #26) » Sat Jul 09, 2011 12:15 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Mod wrote:

Stinging (Prodding) ConfidAnon.

Will sting Subgenius in two hours.

Less than 10 posts ago. Come on guys.
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Post Post #633 (isolation #27) » Sun Jul 10, 2011 7:06 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Jesus, people really don't understand the concept of a hydra, do they? I highly suggest that you not do it again.
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Post Post #655 (isolation #28) » Mon Jul 11, 2011 1:54 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Ivan wrote:
You seem rather eager to die subgenius.

You seem rather eager to try and skate by without posting content Ivan.
Tommy wrote:
Beck, subgenius and ICEninja seem to be agreed that the way forward is to pick a lurker and pressure them with votes until they contribute. I see the attraction, though I'm worried that that kind of vote can turn into a full-blooded killer vote without the voter really stopping to consider whether they're targeting the scummiest player.

If you read just before my vote post, I happen to simultaneously be voting for a lurker and the scummiest player in the game. It's quite convenient that one of our biggest lurkers happens to also be incredibly scummy!

A lot of the recent posts are swaying me to consider a jily vote instead, however. I'm taking it under consideration, particularly after i check for myself that jily declared V/LA in this game but is actively posting in others. That is something that town simply does not do.
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Post Post #660 (isolation #29) » Mon Jul 11, 2011 3:45 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Alright Ivan, good job making it past page 3. What you've posted is decent, I guess, so I won't smack your case here, but you're really going to need to add some fresher stuff than that to really get my attention, especially considering we have so many scummy lurkers who seem intent to let the game slide by.

In looking at jily's current play, this is the only game she declared V/LA in. She hasn't posted very much in her other games, but if she does engage in other games before Monday I'm going to essentially assume she lied, and accept that as a scum admission (meaning she's purposefully avoiding this game when being suspected).
Beck wrote:
It better be a doozy

This. Freaking lurkers, man. I'm going to end up replacing out of this game because it's just going to die if people don't start posting.
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Post Post #687 (isolation #30) » Tue Jul 12, 2011 3:25 pm

Post by ICEninja »

I definitely don't mind Magic's (Hello lat! Fancy you actually managing a town read on me!) case against Rblinker, but it ultimately is just another scummy lurker we've got. Rblinker is probably the most active of the scummy lurkers, which disinclines me to vote for him at the moment. I definitely did take note of the case, though, and am looking forward to a more complete response of his to your case. Much of my read on him will depend on that.

I dislike the fact that people aren't sheeping on to Koolzzy, but Llama makes a good point in that statistically, there is a higher likelihood that people who are definitely not masons are scum. I'm weighing it out a bit, and still looking to see if she's actually going to post anything worth reading. I may abandon my Koolzzy vote simply because it's not accomplishing anything at the moment.

I still think he's scum though, so I'm really hesitant to just drop it.

I'll have some more concrete content later this week. I'm tired now.
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Post Post #689 (isolation #31) » Tue Jul 12, 2011 6:08 pm

Post by ICEninja »

You're going to be a vanilla townie in 2/3rds of the games you play. If you're only going to enjoy the game if you're not vanilla town, then you really shouldn't play mafia.

While this is a bit off topic, vanilla townie is actually my favorite role. The most fun of this game comes from the thrill of the flip for me, discovering if I was correct or not in catching scum. There just isn't much thrill involved in that as scum unless you have multiple families or 3rd party roles. Also, it allows me to scum hunt relentlessly without holding back, as I'm not at all afraid to be night killed. As town power role, I'm withholding scum hunting, withholding information until claim, and generally doing things that makes the game less fun in the interest of having my side win.

Don't smack being a VT.
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Post Post #766 (isolation #32) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:38 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Magic wrote:
I wish Ice would post more btw.

I wish I was still a college student that had 6+ hours of free time every day.

I really like the burst of activity that happened with the recent replacements.
sub wrote:
Your position on Ivan isn't really making sense right now. You said you were leaning town on Ivan as recently as post 740, but as soon as Scott called you on using the "too scummy to be scum" argument, you changed your stance to saying Ivan is actually scummy, but he just shouldn't be lynched today, which seems like more of a neutral read at best. I'm not quite sure what to make of the inconsistency, but the town read followed by a quick retreat seems strange to me. I don't quite understand how you can say someone looks town in one post and then say we can lynch them later an hour and half afterwards.

This. I've considered Beck fairly town this game, but he almost seemed spooked in to changing his read right here. I don't like it, and I'll do some reading this weekend on Beck to see if maybe I've been wrong to give him a town read.
Beck wrote:
I said I have a town read on him because he is too scummy to be scum

if later in the game he is still alive and we are scratching our heads, that too scummy to be scum will be thrown out of the window and the things he has said through the course of the game will be scrutinized.

That's not really how I interpreted what happened. Like I said, it almost seemed like a knee jerk reaction to shift your read to something that accommodates other people. It bothers me some.

Beck is not an acceptable day 2 lynch, however.

Still not against lynching jil's slot, and definitely not upset that she's replacing out.

Scott is making me feel marginally better about his slot, but hasn't really moved forward with anything groundbreaking. I still feel like this slot is leaning scum.

I feel like blinker and Ivan are acceptable lynch picks, Llama still isn't in the clear but that still doesn't feel great either.

This is frustrating, as I feel like half of the players are slightly scummy and require pressure, but not to the extent that they need to be lynched.

Really tired right now. Content will unfortunately have to wait for Saturday.
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Post Post #808 (isolation #33) » Fri Jul 15, 2011 8:08 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Ivan's case on sub wasn't outstanding, but it was a genuine case. It definitely didn't persuade me of anything yet, but it gave me the impression that this slot is willing to get their act together and find scum. They're lowered on my lynch preference for sure.

I'm incredibly frustrated by the fact that I'm getting an increasing town read on Ivan. I really want to vote the slot just because, but I'm getting less and less confident that they're actually scum.

I'm developing a bit of a scum gut read on Tommy. Considering some of the stuff he said (I'll try to make some specific examples tomorrow) seem really fishy if you assume scum on him. I realize this is pretty much the case for everyone, but I'm feeling like he's managing to fly under the radar some. I'll look deeper in to this over the next couple days.
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Post Post #812 (isolation #34) » Sat Jul 16, 2011 7:36 am

Post by ICEninja »

Ivan wrote:
If you assume scum, doesn't everything he says seem fishy?

If you look hard enough, you can find scum tells in every player of every game. The difference is when you read someone and assume town and read someone and assume scum, you can eventually get a sort of overall feel if it makes sense or not. For example, when I read Beck and assume scum, a lot of things don't make sense. He's been genuinely trying to find scum, and has remained fairly transparent of his opinions. This doesn't mean that Tommy is scum and Beck is not. There are other reasons that I believe Tommy has a lower likelihood of flipping scum than Beck. I'll explain.

I'm going to make a few assumptions right now:
1) Those who are on the confirmed not masons list have a higher chance of flipping scum.
-Beck, Ivan, Acro, Myself, Llamarble., jily.
2) Those who were on the wagon to lynch Acro have a slightly higher chance of flipping scum.
-Confid, Myself, CS, Beck, Subgenius, Rblinker, Llamarble.
3) Those who I have a scum read on have a higher chance of flipping scum.
-Jily, Llama, Tommy, to an extent Koolzzy's slot and Rblinker.

Of the first 2, unless I am mistaken there are 3 common names of myself, Beck, and Llama. Of all 3 assumptions, the only name that pops up every time is Llama. Beck has recently picked up a few scum points based on what I said in 766, so I'll put him on the consider for lynching, but ultimately my lynch preference is this:

Llama > jily > Beck. I do not really feel like town should be lynching anyone other than these 3 currently.
unvote, vote Llamarble.


I've been waffling around for a while but now I feel pretty good about this.
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Post Post #815 (isolation #35) » Sat Jul 16, 2011 8:52 am

Post by ICEninja »

Beck, let me clarify why I think the situation is scummy. Firstly, you used the "too scummy to be scum" argument. That is a terrible fallacy on its own that town should never use. Secondly, after being called on it, you stated that you'll want to see him hang later down the road. However, that seems to be a bit of a contradiction to me. He's scummy, but you think he's town, and you want to lynch him later.

None of that adds up to me. It feels like you tweaked your read on him to appear more town.
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Post Post #817 (isolation #36) » Sat Jul 16, 2011 11:02 am

Post by ICEninja »

Beck wrote:
The reason why I feel he is town is his play is so anti-town, I don't feel them as mafia would play like that, plus they'd make sure to keep their reads on people to not draw attention to themselves.

This is a scummy reason to clear someone as town. There should be no argument to this.
Beck wrote:
If it was later in the game, the scum to scummy would be thrown out, but day 2, he can dangle and hopefully do something that confirms him one way or the other

This is where we get in to grey area. Maybe I'm wrong, but you definitely seem to be saying "let's just let him be scummy". You're really giving him an out to do whatever he wants, in my eyes.

I cannot find the phrase where I got the impression that you wanted to lynch him later, so I'll retract that part of what I said. I still, however, feel like you're simply letting be scummy for this reason:
Beck wrote:
yes I realize his scummy behavior can be an act, but coming from a guy who is accused of being scummy in every game, I feel we can let him slide a day or 2 and hopefully be investigated or whatever.

You're using your own town meta and applying it to him. "I get accused of being scum as town, so maybe he's just acting scummy but being town". How the hell do you propose we find scum, then?


This just all seems really weird to me. It doesn't feel right.
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Post Post #918 (isolation #37) » Mon Jul 18, 2011 3:05 pm

Post by ICEninja »

QUICK EDIT BEFORE POSTING:
I've caught up to everything up to page 36. Comments on the rest of the game will follow. I apologize for any mistakes or clumsy wording here, as I don't have time to preview and read through this post to insure the level of quality I usually prefer. It will have to do.

Llama wrote:
I'm saying he's going through the motions. His reasoning is stock stuff like "llama was on wagon. Llama isn't mason. Beck used classically bad "too scummy to be scum."
Experienced players know that most lynches can be avoided by just giving reads with reasons and tossing in some 'appearing to care who gets lynched.'
The organic 'OH MAN this idea just struck me' sorts of things are much harder to replicate.

As someone who has played with me before as town, you should know that my cases tend to be, well, fairly mechanical. I don't go off of gut reads, or else I'd be going after Tommy right now. I don't base my cases off of "OH MAN this idea just struck me!" sort of things, unless something truly brilliant indeed comes to mind. I admit my cases was more brief and less explained than usual, but that simply comes to having about one third of the free time I used to.
Beck wrote:
I can't support a marble wagon because Ice is supporting a marble wagon and since I believe he has proven his ability to make good decision making sucks, I will not be on any wagon he is pushing. Not to mention I have not seen a really valid case for his lynch.

My decision making sucks? Excuse me? That was an unprovoked attack on me and unless you can back that up with some serious basis, I don't appreciate this kind of comment at all. Plus using "X player who isn't scummy is pushing a wagon" as a reason to be against the wagon is a logical fallacy. I'm not sure which one it is, but it is one of them.

Page 34 has shot Beck up to the top of my scumlist. His recent posting has been so incredibly bad, I don't even feel like I need to make a case out of it at this point.
Llama wrote:
Acro was the best lynch I believed to be viable because the only other one under consideration was my own and my impression of the politics of the town was that I couldn't get a better one in the time remaining.
As town I only care about securing the best lynch.

Acro was the leading wagon at the time with nearly a week left before deadline. You made zero, yes we can count them, zero posts about players you actually found scummy. You therefore defaulted to lynching him to preserve yourself, knowing any lynch other than yours would be preferable. That doesn't come from town motivation, that comes from survival motivation. Town motivation would have been to make AT LEAST A SINGLE point about those you find scummy in an attempt to get them lynched.
Llama wrote:
SB & Ice are "LOLOL U HAMMAH AND NOT MASON"

It's more like LOLOL YOU HAMMERED SOMEONE YOU THOUGHT WAS TOWN AND NOT MASON AND ONE OF THE SCUMMIEST PLAYERS.

Sub's post 848 echos much of my thoughts on the page so far.
Beck wrote:
Ice posts 3 statements and makes a list of people on each person, because llama is on all 3, he votes him.

One of those 3 things happened to be me having a scum read on him, which I've qualified throughout day 2.
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Post Post #929 (isolation #38) » Mon Jul 18, 2011 6:22 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Beck wrote:
and you twist it around and you say I am saying this (bolded)

I misunderstood what you meant by that, probably because I read the sentence too fast. Usually when someone says he can "dangle" it means he can be lynched. I was incorrectly biased when I read this statement because I thought sub was on to something in pointing this out. I later corrected myself and admitted that you never stated you wanted him lynched down the road.

I still, however, pointed to why your stance was quite fishy indeed.

Nothing of what I did here involves poor decision making. It was poor interpretation, essentially, with a dash of not paying enough attention to sub, which was also foolish. I will scrutinize his cases more thoroughly now.
Giitah wrote:
@Ice
Just a thought, but I think Beck's insult towards you is a driving factor behind your sudden jump in scum on him; that isn't to say about any of his other actions but I think you might also be influenced by your emotions on this one. Your call.

His insulting me was caused by my sudden jump in scum on him, not the other way around.
Beck wrote:
so Gittah, I just read those spoilers and your only scum read is blinker and possibly sub

is that right?

Goodposting from Beck. I definitely noticed this too. You had a scum read on blinker, for so-so reasons, and seem to toss a little dirt sub's way without really committing to anything. You definitely didn't have any solid scum read outside of blinker. Why didn't your single scum read come with a vote?

Then you say that Tommy is your second biggest scum read, going from:
Giitah wrote:
Tommy strikes me as a... null read, now that I look at his ISO.

to:
Gittah wrote:
Tommy - don't like him at all. heavy gut feeling.


Did you give someone a stronger scum read so you didn't look bad? Did you after-the-fact realize you didn't give enough scum reads, and needed to fabricate one? Already not liking the replacement, in to an already sketchy slot.

Still willing to support the lynch of this slot. Still looking to lynch Llama. Willing to lynch Beck now, but only if we can't get either of these 2 slots lynched which, lets face it, one of them will stick.

Whew caught up.
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Post Post #963 (isolation #39) » Tue Jul 19, 2011 3:28 pm

Post by ICEninja »

I'm getting a weird gut feeling that Tommy and sub are a scum pair.

I have no idea why and I can't qualify it at the moment, but I'm making note of it to refer back to later.
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Post Post #978 (isolation #40) » Tue Jul 19, 2011 6:03 pm

Post by ICEninja »

My opinions for what needs to happen today probably aren't going to change before deadline. I suspect others feel similarly. I suggest everyone clearly state (or restate, if you're like me and have already pointed it out) for obvious reference their 3 strongest lynch preferences, in order. If you haven't made it crystal clear in the past few pages why you want this player lynched, a quick explanation of your read would be helpful.

This will give everyone, even the people who aren't participating much, clear record of what everyone's reads are and who our viable lynch picks are for the day. With the time left until deadline, no one should be voting for anyone other than the top 3 or so clear lynch picks.

My top 3 are Llama > Giitah > Beck. I'm pretty confident that Llama and Giitah are 2 of today's top 3 lynch picks.
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Post Post #1021 (isolation #41) » Wed Jul 20, 2011 2:55 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Tommy beat me to it. I was going to do exactly the same thing he did. At this point in time, there should be zero discussion of lynching anyone other than Llama, sub, and Tommy.

My preference is obviously Llama, but I suppose I'll tolerate a Tommy lynch as opposed to a no lynch. I'm not swayed by the case against sub. There is some merit there, but not enough to offset what I've seen as quite pro-town play.
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Post Post #1023 (isolation #42) » Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:22 pm

Post by ICEninja »

I know where you're coming from, Beck. I'm a lot less confident in this lynch than I usually am for day 2, this feels like the strength of a decent day 1 lynch. As I stated in an earlier post, I have mild scum reads on a lot of players, but significantly solid scum reads on no one. That is why I defaulted to finding the common denominator between those on the day 1 mislynch, those on the definitely not masons list, and those who I have a mild scum read of.

The only reason I put together the request for top 3 lynches is because there are, quite frankly, 4 or 5 players who have decent suspicion on them. With that kind of dispersion, we're either going to end up with a no-lynch, or a last second scramble where people are going to vote players they don't want to lynch simply to avoid a no-lynch, and we'll move in to day 3 even more convoluted than we are now. If that's possible.

My current suggestion: If you
do not
have a vote on one of Llamarble, sub, or Tommy, then get your vote on one of them. If you have a particularly convincing reason why we shouldn't be lynching Llamarble (saying there isn't a case against him is not a convincing reason, because there are a large number of points leading to him being scum) then bring that forward now.
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Post Post #1076 (isolation #43) » Thu Jul 21, 2011 3:23 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Llama, the hammer in itself wasn't all that scummy. The fact is you had scum reads and did absolutely zero, nothing at all, to push towards their lynch is quite scummy.
Magic wrote:
ICE played a game with foilist once.

Foilist is on my list of "will not play with" players. If Ivan is indeed Foilist, I understand why I hate everything he says.
Llama wrote:
Dead town gets pretty much totally ignored so I feel like I'd be spending a lot of time for nothing.

Should you flip town, rest (in peace) assured that I will not ignore your thoughts on currently living players.
Ivan wrote:
An Llmarble lynch is unacceptable. We will be looking very carefully at everybody on that wagon if the lynch goes through. You all need to flashwagon subgenius for a mafia lynch.

Threat noted.

Can we lynch Llama now? We're too close to the deadline to lynch sub. It isn't happening.
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Post Post #1143 (isolation #44) » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:06 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Alright, I was sincerely hoping that both masons would survive the night so they could claim today. I'm not really sure what to make of it.

I'm assuming sub was a vig kill, and if it was, you should feel very stupid. Scum tried to flashwagon away from Llama, I knew sub was 99% confirmed town once Llama flipped scum. You don't ever ever have 2 wagons like that and they both happen to be on scum.

I'd like to ask the surviving mason to claim at this point, as I do not want there to be a 50/50 lynch after counter claim down the road. You'll likely be NKed tonight, but surviving longer than today, without any mason buddies, isn't really going to help town all that much anyway. It's currently too dangerous for scum to claim the 3rd mason.

I'm surprised that there isn't a weakened mason trio though. I suppose it is possible that the masons are our exclusive power roles. Which would suck.

I figure at this point there was 1 scum busing and 1 scum helping Llama flashwagon. Being that there is only 2 players left on the flashwagon, and both of them are quite scummy, I'm going to thoroghly insist that today's lynch either be Ivan or Beck. I'm perfectly happy with either.

Scott is probably town, as that would have been a gutsy bus to be on him all day like that. Magic is probably town for the hammer. I feel like Giitah is the most likely busing scum, though Tommy is definitely a good candidate. I'm currently feeling like the remaining scum are one of Ivan/Beck and one of Tommy/Giitah.

Let's start here:
Vote Beck
.
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Post Post #1146 (isolation #45) » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:48 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Sub's play was town all game. His play reminded me very much of my own town play back when I was a more cautious player. I'm not saying he was cleared because of that, but I was attacked for the same things he was attacked for, and it was just how I played. He was attacked based on play style, not content. And when the competing wagon, Llama, flipped scum, it was as clear as daylight in the Sahara that he was town.

I'm not saying you voted him at the last second. You were, however, part of the last second push to attempt to get sub lynched as opposed to scum.

That being said, I'm voting Beck and not you. If he flips scum, I think you're town. Oh and Archeobob, you had a very strong scum read on a VT. Looks like your record is broken.

Glad you're on board, Scott. I think we can roll the rest of this game out pretty smoothly. I don't have you cleared as town yet, either, but I think you're probtown.
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Post Post #1148 (isolation #46) » Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:32 pm

Post by ICEninja »

OK I suspected that Beck was the mason. Now that we know the last mason is not Beck, I'm happy to see him hang today.

Whiskers, taking a quick look at the first post gives you virtually all the information you asked for. Most minis have 3 scum. We've successfully lynched 1 scum, and there are 4 dead townies. 2 of them are your mason buddies.

I'll read through some more ISO to see if a blinkermason is believable. If no one counter claims, I'll probably assume it as true.
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Post Post #1149 (isolation #47) » Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:35 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Spoon wrote:
and we object to Yank and blinker lynches for today

Spoon wrote:
Blinker and Ivan are mislynch fodder

That is about all Spoon has said about blinker. Yank said literally nothing at all about blinker. I'll believe it unless a fake claim comes along.
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Post Post #1160 (isolation #48) » Tue Jul 26, 2011 3:23 am

Post by ICEninja »

Beck wrote:
ice, why on earth would you suspect I was a mason when I was on the list of "not masons"?

Oh, I forgot about that list when reading through CS and Yank's ISO.

I'm definitely open to an Ivan lynch, especially if a vig can take out either Tommy or Beck depending on Ivan's flip.
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Post Post #1180 (isolation #49) » Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:55 am

Post by ICEninja »

Beck you are not the most town.

What I meant by wagons like that is you simply don't have a competing wagon pop out of nowhere if one is already on scum. Two competing wagons at hours to deadline are never both on scum. Period.

I now have even further reason to dislike foilist. Bah. I will believe him for now. The scum team is probably Beck and Tommy. I will do some connection hunting when I'm at my computer tonight.
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Post Post #1199 (isolation #50) » Tue Jul 26, 2011 3:26 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Alright so unless we get a counter claim vig, I'm pretty sure Ivan is town. I really just don't think that the last second sub wagon was fueled by only a single town, so I really feel like town should be lynching Beck today.

That being said, I feel fairly confident that we're going to have to get around to lynching Tommy eventually anyway.

Assuming 1 death per night, if we lynch Beck and Tommy and only a single one of them is scum, we're still probably going to be left with a 3 townie to 1 scum mylo situation, which isn't the worst thing around. I feel like it is virtually impossible for them both to be town, but we would lose if they are.

The nice thing about this situation is even on of the off chance that Ivan is lying and is a serial killer, he doesn't have an opportunity to kill without revealing himself. He's literally powerless.
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Post Post #1201 (isolation #51) » Tue Jul 26, 2011 4:18 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Whiskers do you have any intention of reading this game? If not, then I would caution you against joining games after day 1.
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Post Post #1205 (isolation #52) » Tue Jul 26, 2011 5:07 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Beck unfortunately for you, I don't really vote much based on gut read. My gut tells me you're town. I've learned from simply too many occasions to write people off as town, because someone can make a perfectly reasoned and logical explanation such as your 1202 and still be scum.

It's going to be a significantly uphill battle to get my vote off you, however, simply because of my belief that it is unlikely for there to have only been 1 scum on sub at the end of the day, regardless of when and why anyone voted him.

For the record, despite having used the word "lynch" multiple times already today, I will not see anyone hang for the next real life week unless we stagnate, as I agree that everyone needs to present as much information as possible. Particularly, Ivan needs to participate without being a whacko that's done a lot to wreck this game by preventing us from getting reliable reads on him, not scum hunting, then shooting one of the most likely players to be town.

I'm not going to write off Giitah, MT, or Scott as possible scum. I do, however, believe that they become increasingly unlikely to be scum in that order.

The easy way out would simply be to lynch Beck right now, Tommy immediately after, and actually stand a decent chance of winning, but I want a better than decent chance.
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Post Post #1240 (isolation #53) » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:41 pm

Post by ICEninja »

I've read stuff, and Beck makes some good points. While I still think he needs to be lynched today, I really like the quality of his posting lately. Should we be wrong and he flips town, I'll be definitely paying attention to all of this.

Likewise, should he flip scum, this will absolutely help me find who his partner is tomorrow. I'm all for this day continuing like this for another week or so.

I'm particularly looking forward to foilist's content. While I dislike the guy, he tends to be a pretty solid scum hunter.

I find myself, unfortunately, with very little to add at the moment.
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Post Post #1244 (isolation #54) » Wed Jul 27, 2011 6:17 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Whiskers wrote:
That's great, ICE, and also, you suck?

Whiskers wrote:
Man, you're an awesome player. Eeeeyup.

Says the player who hasn't even read this game. Kindly keep your inane comments to yourself, considering how you don't even know what's going on.

If we lynch any 2 players and they're both town we lose. Tommy and Beck aren't both town, though. I'm easily willing to bet the game on it. I would, however, like to be as sure as possible. The information we're gathering is great. TownBeck is helping us a lot in terms of day 4. ScumBeck is helping us a lot in terms of day 4. Get where I'm going with this? I want him to keep talking regardless of his alignment. Of course I'm going to applaud him providing good content.

He could be the most pro-town player in the game for the duration of day 3 and he'll still probably be the best lynch. That being said, you are right about how Tommy is being scummy today whereas Beck is not. That is worth consideration, though the situation dictates that Beck has the highest likelihood of flipping scum completely regardless of reads.
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Post Post #1245 (isolation #55) » Wed Jul 27, 2011 6:19 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Mod wrote:
FACT: for a game with 13 players and a mod, 25 different accounts has posted in this thread. that's 11 extra users.

4 people posted with incorrect accounts, by my reckoning.
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Post Post #1276 (isolation #56) » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:06 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Tommy wrote:
Also ICEninja. What is it about my play today that strikes you as scummy?

It hasn't been terrible, to be frank. However, you're relying completely on PoE, which is a tool that I think is incredibly useful to use, but you aren't putting it in context. You're simply saying you've rounded your lynch pool down to only town reads, and haven't done anything to look deeper and find the scum motivations behind the play in each of your scum list. I definitely approve of your vote of Beck, but I don't really approve of
why
you've voted Beck. He's the least town of your town-read-only lynch pool.

I definitely encourage you to go back and read all of us in ISO and present your findings because otherwise I would agree that you are coasting along the day doing very minimal scum hunting, really. Sure you've posted a lot, but I'm not finding a lot of scum hunting analysis from you. I've been very clear as to who I believe is scum and why, whereas you're simply saying "based on process of elimination, some of my townreads must be wrong so I'm just going to vote one of them".
Beck wrote:
Tommy isn't doing anything to help find scum, he even says his top lynch suspects he has a town read on, he doesn't find ANYONE scummy.

this is a red flag.

Summed up nicely.
Beck wrote:
I don't like him, but it's mostly i think he lacks good judgment sometimes, this is the 2nd time he has done something that makes absolutely no sense.

I'm making fantastic judgement calls here. I've lost games to scum who did a wonderful job of posting great reasons to lynch the wrong players. You're posting wonderfully, and if this was day 1 or 2 you would currently be one of my strongest town tells. However, based on the circumstances of Llama's lynch considering Sub's counter wagon, you, regardless of my read on you, have the highest likelihood of flipping scum, with Tommy coming in second. I have better reasoning against Tommy based on his posts, but the circumstances simply point to you being our best lynch.

That being said, I'm considering a Tommy lynch as well. His flip will be decisively informative about Beck, I should say.
Whiskers wrote:
Lynch... I dunno, Ivan? Townie.

Ivan is close to confirmed town. I will not be voting him unless there are very solid reasons to believe him of being a serial killer, which based on the single night kill during night 1, is highly unlikely. We have no doctor, so the only possibility is one forgot/chose to not shoot (unlikely) or they shot the same person (also unlikely).
Whiskers wrote:
Who do we lynch after Tommy and Beck? Who's your third scum read?

If Beck is scum but Tommy is not, then the remaining scum is Scott. If Tommy is scum but Beck is not, I have no freaking clue. Probably MT, but that still seems like a long shot. I believe the likelihood of the first 2 votes on Llama both being scum is virtually nothing, so Tommyscum nearly clears Scott in my mind. If there's evidence of serial killer Ivan, I'm willing to look at it, but it just doesn't seem plausible. From my point of view, that leaves MT and his crazy Llama hammer as a gambit. Which, once again, I don't see as particularly plausible, so I'm really going to stick with Beck/Tommy/Scott, 2 of these 3.

I don't see much of any chance of both Tommy and Beck being scum, though one of them being scum reduces the likelihood of the other being scum in my mind.

Actually, now that I'm thinking about it, I think a Tommy lynch might actually be more informative as to day 4's lynch. If Tommy flips town, we're almost guaranteed to hit Beckscum. If Tommy is scum, then we need to take a long hard look at the game and decide if Tommy and Beck would be willing to bus each other at this point.

I need to think on this.
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Post Post #1277 (isolation #57) » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:09 pm

Post by ICEninja »

EBWOP:
Myself wrote:
You're posting wonderfully, and if this was day 1 or 2 you would currently be one of my strongest town
tells.
reads.


Corrected.

I apologize for not giving that post the time it deserved. It is worded awkwardly in many places and is difficult. If anyone needs any clarifications, point out where the confusion is and I'll do my best.
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Post Post #1284 (isolation #58) » Thu Jul 28, 2011 4:39 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Beck, your setup speculation is interesting. I've stated reasons, very recently, why I believe Ivan's claim. I don't need to repeat them. These reasons are subject to change depending on night 4 and 5 actions, but I think he's probably telling the truth. If so, then I can't reasonably say that town has more than 3 masons and a one shot vig. We definitely don't have 2 mafia families, as there was no distinction during night kill's or Llama's title (straight up goon) as I believe is required to do in normal minis. I'm not really sure what kind of anti-town role mafia could have at this point besides role cop, though.
Beck wrote:
you gave your top 3 but never explained why....

I clearly stated, within the post you are referring to:
Myself wrote:
If you haven't made it crystal clear in the past few pages why you want this player lynched, a quick explanation of your read would be helpful.

I'm fairly sure I had made it clear shortly before. My vote post, which had my reasoning for voting Llama, was indeed only a few pages prior to my request.
Beck wrote:
also the early ass kissing on me was completely missed

Complimenting good posting is well within my town meta.
Beck wrote:
so you just say you think there is a tommy/Sub scum team but your very next post your top 3 is llama, gitah, beck (the top 2 wagons and the person you intentionally tried to mis-rep)

And just a few posts before that, I stated:
Myself wrote:
As someone who has played with me before as town, you should know that my cases tend to be, well, fairly mechanical. I don't go off of gut reads, or else I'd be going after Tommy right now. I don't base my cases off of "OH MAN this idea just struck me!" sort of things, unless something truly brilliant indeed comes to mind.

Good job taking things I say blatantly out of context in order to sling some mud out of me. This post reeks of desperation to discredit a leader of your wagon and hope to divert votes.
Beck wrote:
i'm just saying that Ice saying 100% there is no doctor is kind of weird, like he knows for a fact what setup we have.

The only situation town could
possible
have a doctor is if Ivan is lying. Town does
not
have a tri mason team, a one shot vig, and a doctor all rolled in to one in a mini game like this. It simply would not get approved. As I've stated before, I'm assuming that Ivan is telling the truth. I have reason to assume so. Therefore, I can state with a fair amount of confidence that we do not have a doctor in this game.
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Post Post #1291 (isolation #59) » Thu Jul 28, 2011 5:44 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Scott wrote:
The truth.

Yup.
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Post Post #1314 (isolation #60) » Fri Jul 29, 2011 3:11 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Foilist, I've been the day 1 lynch in both games I've played as scum.

I am a dude, Whiskers. Seriously.

How about your master plans, Whiskers?
Lynch ICE - Town
NK town
Lynch whoever your scum buddy is
NK town

Then its lylo.

You can literally present that situation to
every single player in the game
and it won't change. This isn't scum hunting at all.

Now if we lynched Beck, he flipped town, we lynched Tommy, he flipped scum, and we're in lylo together, you can go back and say "look at this plan he had to put himself in a good position" and it might be a case worth looking at. Right now, however, you're simply speculating on what ICE-scum could
possibly
be doing. I could speculate on what any player as scum could possibly be doing. It's worthless.
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Post Post #1316 (isolation #61) » Fri Jul 29, 2011 4:30 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Whiskers wrote:
If you want to lynch Beck and Tommy, How can I convince you to lynch Tommy first, to see how he flips?

Convince me that 2 scum bussed Llama, and that he was alone on the sub wagon. I don't think it happened, but if you really think it did then convince me.
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Post Post #1321 (isolation #62) » Fri Jul 29, 2011 5:23 pm

Post by ICEninja »

It makes a lot of sense for 2 but not all 3 of the scum to have been on the day 1 mislynch wagon. Beck is definitely a good candidate for that. This, however, leaves us with an interesting pool of players to choose from for the final lynch. SK, who is now Giitah and Tommy were both off the day 1 wagon (though Tommy proclaimed himself as good as on it) and finally lynched Llama.

From that, it actually seems like Giitah is a permissible Beckscum partner.

That last comment showing Llama reading both myself and Tommy as scum reads is actually a further reason to believe Tommy as scum, actually. I agree with the assessment that out of the bottom 4 scum reads that Llama made, there's probably only 1 scum. I know it isn't me, and we all know it isn't Yank. That would then support either Tommy or Scott being scum.

This further strengthens my theory that Tommy and Scott can't be scum buddies together, but looking at the day 1 VC (Beck on the town mislynch with buddy Llama with Scott's slot conspicuously off of it, also separate on Llama's lynch).

I feel fairly confident in all of these assumptions:
1) Scum Beck means either Tommy, Scott, or Giitah is scum.
2) Scum Tommy means Scott is town.
3) Town either Beck or Tommy means the other is scum.
4) Scum Tommy means one of Beck, MT, and Giitah is scum.
5) Town Tommy means Scott is probably scum.

It looks like, statistically speaking, town gains more information from a Tommy lynch. I am a little concerned, however, that I'm going to get lynched if he flips town.

What does everyone else think? I apologize if I have any serious logic holes, I'm exhausted. Last sales day of the month and all, reached my sales quota today by a margin of zero. I need sleep.
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Post Post #1324 (isolation #63) » Fri Jul 29, 2011 6:14 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Ivan wrote:
If you think there must be a scum player on the subgenius wagon than it is Beck. Put your money where your mouth is.

It comes down to this. I've given my reasoning why for my vote on Beck. My vote is where my mouth is, and despite my last post saying we've got a statistically higher chance of winning when lynching Tommy, I still think Beck has a higher likelihood of flipping scum. Which is why I've not changed my vote.
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Post Post #1330 (isolation #64) » Sat Jul 30, 2011 6:14 am

Post by ICEninja »

Whiskers wrote:
Really? I thought You'd said the opposite earlier. I'll find it tomorrow whe I have the eyes for it.

I've stated that Tommy is acting scummier today, but I've also stated, repeatedly, that because of the circumstances, I feel like Beck has a higher likelihood of flipping scum.
Beck wrote:
it is 100% possible for all town to be on the Sub wagon

it is 100% possible Ivan is lying and is a SK

It's also 100% possible for me to find $100 lying on the floor next to an ATM machine next time I go out. That doesn't mean it's likely.
Beck wrote:
also when i flip town ice, you are going to probably look the worse out of anyone cause your absolute refusal to consider any other options.

I can probably find at least 3 instances declaring today that I'm open to a Tommy lynch. This is flat out mudslinging, fear mongering, borderline threat that scum tends to do to get out of lynches, and town does not. This is probably the scummiest thing you've said all day.

However if I can't get enough support for a Beck lynch, I'm fine hammering Tommy. He is a very close second lynch preference for today.
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Post Post #1333 (isolation #65) » Sat Jul 30, 2011 7:27 am

Post by ICEninja »

A Tommy lynch is possible. It always has been. It's just always been second best.
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Post Post #1336 (isolation #66) » Sat Jul 30, 2011 4:54 pm

Post by ICEninja »

I never really considered MT
confirmed
town, so to speak. I do, however, feel like he has a lower likelihood of being scum than yourself and Tommy. Hammering Llama in that situation as scum would have been a gambit of sorts, but I must admit that MT's slot isn't exactly squeaky clean so I'd be open to the possibility, if not the likelihood, of considering MT as scum after we get either a Beck or Tommy flip.
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Post Post #1350 (isolation #67) » Sun Jul 31, 2011 8:48 am

Post by ICEninja »

Whiskers wrote:
ICE, why should't we vote for you?
I read all of your posts that say "Oh, after we lynch X today, we can lynch Y tomorrow", and none of them ever include lynching you.

I know that I am town. You obviously do not. When I'm presenting these cases, they are from my point of view. I am not
assuming
that everyone will follow them. I am simply pointing out what I feel is the best lynch for town, and I've been very clear for my reasoning why. I have the advantage over you of knowing that I am town. We all know you're town, due to the mason claim, so therefore you have the least amount of information out of all of us.

There are simply better lynch candidates. I realize that if we lynch Beck and Tommy and there is still a scum alive, I am a lynch candidate. I am simply going to have to show why whoever else (Scott or MT probably) is scum while I am not. Since I am currently not in danger of being lynched, I would prefer to spend my effort finding scum and convincing others of my finds than defend myself.

Whiskers is indeed the closest thing we have to confirmed town. For the purpose of day 3, Ivan is confirmed town.

I'll go back and re-read Tommy's earlier posts about Confid. If he indeed lied about having a mostly neutral read on him, then that would indicate beyond too much doubt that he is indeed scum.
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Post Post #1375 (isolation #68) » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:37 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Beck, you've done good scum hunting. It should be pretty obvious, considering the timing of my posts, which of your posts that I felt were good. I'm obviously not going to go back and waste my time pointing out everything you said that I liked, because I think you're scum and that would be completely inane. In fact, you trying to dig up every little thing on me despite how weak it is screams scum, but I'll humor you.

Your post 1236, which was 4 posts before the one that you quoted, contained some decent scum hunting. On the previous page (49) you made a decent defense and gave some good reasons why we shouldn't be lynching you.

Obviously none of this swayed me, as I would expect a good scum to be posting like you have been. However, your good posting has left me open to a Tommy lynch and has prevented me from requesting more Beck votes and pushing your lynch.

Now, why were you asking about this again? Why was it at all relevant that I answer that question?
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Post Post #1378 (isolation #69) » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:00 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Seriously, Beck? You're think I'm incredibly scummy because I commented that you did some decent posting without backing it up with evidence?

Who the hell backs up statements like "Beck's posting is fairly pro-town" and "I agree" with evidence? You just think everything I do is wrong because I've found a situation you were in scummy during day 2, and now believe you to be scum regardless of gut reads.

I've very heavily substantiated my top picks for today. Saying I don't have reasoning for my scum suspects on you and Tommy is just...sheesh.

Honestly, I'm not even sure if you realize how stupid you look right now. No offense, but you're spouting so much stuff that's untrue or backwards with such conviction that you might even genuinely believe it. I'm seriously not trying to be mean right now, and I know you're frustrated regardless of your alignment, but some of the stuff you say is just so bad.
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Post Post #1394 (isolation #70) » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:52 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Fair enough.
Unvote, Vote Tommy
.

Not Beck, but still a good lynch.
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Post Post #1395 (isolation #71) » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:53 pm

Post by ICEninja »

If Tommy flips town, I'm still thinking Beck. If Tommy flips scum, We'll have a lot more analysis to do I think.
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Post Post #1399 (isolation #72) » Tue Aug 02, 2011 3:57 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Mod? Night should be starting now.
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Post Post #1426 (isolation #73) » Sat Aug 06, 2011 7:08 am

Post by ICEninja »

Due to the same reason I knew sub was town, I think Beck is probably town now, too. Scott made more sense as a Beck scum buddy than a Tommy scum buddy, and especially since they were the first two on the Llama wagon, I'd definitely guess that one of them was town.

That pretty much leaves Giitah and Heliman. I'll take some time this weekend at some point to examine situations and connections to see which one is more likely to be scum. At the moment I'm leaning Giitah, but I haven't thought about this game for a bit and I don't remember everything so I'll have to do some reading.

If we lynch scum and the game doesn't end, Ivan is SK.
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Post Post #1429 (isolation #74) » Sat Aug 06, 2011 12:50 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Ivan, I believe you're a 1 shot vig. That would be why I'm not voting you. However, should we lynch another scum and the game not be over, it is glaringly obvious that you are lying. Tommy bussed Llama fairly hard, but notice this post where Tommy slams the breaks hard on his bus and goes after Ivan. This is further evidence that Ivan is probably town.

That doesn't change the fact that your "experiment" pisses me off, and further leads me to dislike you and never want to play with you again. I realize you /inned before me, but I did not know you were in this game. If that ever happens again, kindly PM me letting me know we'd be in the same game so I can /out and wait for the next one.

I'm about 95% sure that the next scum lynch is a town win.

Beck, you seem to have this notion that I've played poorly this game. I understand that, since you're probably a VT, that every attack against you is bad play in your eyes but it is getting really frustrating. Take your head out of your ass and look at how I scum hunted you. I ultimately had a town read on your posting, which now leads quite well to believing you are town in light of Tommy's flip. You successfully (with help) won me over to the Tommy wagon and got scum lynched. If I was playing poorly I would have blindly continued to tunnel on you for what still feel like logically sound reasons to me.

I still need to take more time to analyze Tommy's day 3 play. He somewhat painted himself in a corner on his town reads, so we're going to have to find the scum within the few players he stated was probably a town read.

I doubt we do, but we have any town power roles left,
they need to claim now
.
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Post Post #1431 (isolation #75) » Sat Aug 06, 2011 2:09 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Heliman didn't even consider the possibility that Ivan is, indeed, a one shot vig despite some decent evidence that it is true.
Heliman wrote:
Second scumpick then:
VOTE: Beck

This is strange. Second scum pick? Your initially voted for a no lynch. How is a no lynch your first scum pick and Beck your second? I can't qualify exactly why I feel this is so strange, but you seem to be fabricating scum reads here. I really don't see good reasoning for voting Beck except for this:
Heliman wrote:
You are reactive, WIFOM dependant, and in one case, as I explained in my previous post about your #877, totally contradictory.

Tommy having a weak scum read of Confid then trying to play him off a neutral as time went on looks bad for this slot as well.

What I'm not so sure about is how hard MT pushed for a Tommy lynch. Reading MT again is messing with my head big time. If this slot is scum, MT played extremely well. I'm feeling strange about the hammer Llama, as he didn't have a scum read on that slot. He actually tried to play Llama off as town. It seems very possible the hammer was for town cred, but it's a bit sketchy.

I definitely see reason to vote for Heliman, but some of the circumstance really points to the slot being town. I need to think on this more.
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Post Post #1432 (isolation #76) » Sat Aug 06, 2011 4:27 pm

Post by ICEninja »

This is a notable quote from Tommy in 1301 that is very interesting considering his scum flip.
Tommy wrote:
Six votes are needed for a lynch. Note that every single player can avoid a no-lynch by changing their vote and hammering. If we had no-lynched, Magic Trainer would have had to accept an eleventh of the blame. With two minutes to go, it's fairly clear that every player except Magic Trainer had accepted a no lynch. Including me. Including you, Beck. Magic Trainer nailed scum with an unprovoked, unpressured hammer. He's as close to cleared as it gets.

I don't usually see scum trying to clear town very often, especially in dicey situations.
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Post Post #1436 (isolation #77) » Sat Aug 06, 2011 7:42 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Archaebob, you're voting me because I have a play style different than you. I pretty much completely disagree with everything you said because I just play differently than you. Maybe it reeks of how you play scum, but this is just how I play. Just have a look at my wiki for my games.

I build an "armored geometric wall" of whatever you're saying to make yourself sound clever because that's how I play mafia, regardless of alignment. I don't just act, and yes I do pride myself on my rationality. I never vote based on gut, and I attempt to go to great lengths to make my thought processes transparent. If you're going to call my transparency about not having a particularly good lock on who to vote right now, then you don't understand how I play at all.
Ivan wrote:
Real town is paranoid, inconsistent, and will often make leaps in logic that they can't really justify because they have an intuition about something.

Actually, I don't tend to do this as town, I do it as scum. And I get lynched for it. I almost never act based on intuition as town, and virtually always regret it when I do. This is very well established in my meta, as well.
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Post Post #1438 (isolation #78) » Sun Aug 07, 2011 5:01 am

Post by ICEninja »

Dear God, don't remind me.

I said you can look in my wiki, but here's a game from March, which I'm fairly sure is my most recent non hydra town meta.
here.

I recall having a gut scum read on the last scum (trust me, this is a fluke, my gut reads suck) but because of the situation I refused to heed it, since the situation pointed to him being town throughout a majority of the game.

I also recall being more aggressive, having had more time to read the game than I currently do. Stupid employment gets in the way of the fun things in life.
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Post Post #1448 (isolation #79) » Mon Aug 08, 2011 2:44 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Ivan wrote:
Your playstyle is indeed extremely methodical, which makes it very easy for you to mimic as scum, at least on a superficial level.

Except I fail miserably at it. Unless you think I've had a significant jump in my skill level from all of my scum meta, I can not successfully mimic it as scum. You have my scum meta, you know. It's a joke.
Ivan wrote:
"I'm incredibly frustrated at the fact that my mind is changing, because it requires me to expend more effort in finding a new read, and all of these other narrowly defined factors make me want to vote Ivan, BUT I CANT, because I am super gradually beginning to think that he is townish."

I don't usually like to use meta as a defense, but you seem to be keen on it so I'll point out that it isn't unusual for me to be frustrated at town and want to vote them but not be able to because I think they're town. A good example of this would be this game where I could tell SAMP was probtown but absolutely infuriated me.

This experiment you and foilist did was bullshit and pissed me off. However I had reason to believe you were town. How is anything I said, considering those facts, scummy?
Ivan wrote:
Haha. Whatever I say to make myself sound clever? Are you implying that I am being disingenuous? Are you suspicious of my motivations? If so, why? That's a surprisingly combative way of phrasing that, given the circumstances.

Considering how much I dislike your slot, I don't think there's anything surprising about it. Get bent.
Beck wrote:
A hammer doesn't count as a bus. He tried to avoid a Tommy wagon until it was inevitable.

I was gradually swayed throughout the course of the day. I was never against the Tommy wagon, I simply felt that you were a better lynch. I was wrong, but the circumstances surprised me. Ultimately I wasn't able to get the lynch I wanted, and that was to town's benefit.

I am a little surprised at Beck's 180 here.
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Post Post #1451 (isolation #80) » Mon Aug 08, 2011 3:32 pm

Post by ICEninja »

That's funny, Beck. When the VCA was against you, it was complete bullshit. Now that you're using it to lynch me, it suddenly makes sense.
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Post Post #1453 (isolation #81) » Mon Aug 08, 2011 4:58 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Beck wrote:
So now cause I vote you, you are going to change your mind?

I never said I think you're scum. I think you're just using whatever you feel is convenient to push your ends without actually thinking about it. Bad play doesn't always equal scum. Accusing someone of playing poorly because they attack you then using poor logic to attack said player more speaks that you just have it in for me and aren't thinking clearly, not that you're scum.
Beck wrote:
you were saying one of the 2 people alive must be scum

And I arrived at that conclusion using VCA. Duh?
Beck wrote:
Despite hammering marble, MT was first on Tommy's wagon and with 2 scum left that would be entirely reckless. So I don't think it can be MT anymore, but scum hammering makes much more sense.

Tommy was on the Llama wagon early and hard. You don't think it's possible MT bussed?
Beck wrote:
So just do us a favor, self vote and let's end the charade

This is just rude. Why is everyone being rude to me now?
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Post Post #1457 (isolation #82) » Tue Aug 09, 2011 2:46 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Mod, mass prods, please?


Actually, I would like to note something of interest. I got prodded only the next day after the game opened, yet the mod says he wont prod except until 72 hours of inactivity. Wtf?
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Post Post #1458 (isolation #83) » Tue Aug 09, 2011 3:32 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Alright now that I've got a little more time to sit down and go through things, I'm going to dissect the cases against me a bit. I apologize for not doing this sooner, and as Beck has pointed out, I definitely have not done a good job of this so far.

I apologize if this post is not up to my usual quality, I don't have the time to preview it.

Here is Ivan's original case against me, point by point:
Ivan wrote:
1) Beck is obv town. He's always been obv town, and the crappy statistics case ICE was pushing yesterday combined with his weaksauce commitment to it and a Tommy lynch make him extremely scummy.

Beck, right now, is prob town. He was absolutely not obv town at all, as I discussed yesterday, the likelihood of that sub wagon showing up at such strength during day 2 so close to the deadline against a scum wagon seriously implied a scum fueled attempt to save a scum. While I now realize the likelihood of there being more than just Llama scum on that wagon is much lower,
it was not at all clear that this was the case yesterday
.
Ivan wrote:
ICE is scum because of his super tentative statistics case on Beck. If he actually believed any of that he would have pushed it like a motherfucker. The fact that he went after Tommy in an equally weaksauce way is borderline ridiculous.

Oh so the fact that I realized scum was probably between 2 players, and players did a good job of convincing me it was the other makes me scum? I did initially push it quite hard, actually. The fact that Beck had so much town posting made it extremely difficult for me to push it any harder, and I made that very clear. I was conflicted because of that, so obviously town shouldn't push anything like a motherfucker when we're this far in. At least not a player like me. I suppose I shouldn't speak for you.
Ivan wrote:
He bussed out Llamarble, then bussed out Tommy, and is now going to try and soak up the town cred and coast to the finish. That is very common scum play, personally I do it all the time.

This isn't even evidence against me. You're saying that because I lynched scum, I'm obviously bussing and therefore scum myself. This may be how you play scum. I hope it's how you play town, as well. Do you not try to lynch scum as town? If you can explain how I'm playing to a scum win condition and
not
to a town win condition, then we'll debate.
Ivan wrote:
Town doesn't talk about things in terms of what they "definitely see a reason to do." They just do things. The unnecessary caveat in this sentence reeks, reeks of scum.

You play town differently than I do. I simply cannot defend myself on this because, as I have said I believe multiple times now, I don't "just do things". I present with as much transparency as possible my case and thought process on why I believe who is scum.
Ivan wrote:
This is a style of scum play that a lot of players who don't know any better fall into, particularly players who pride themselves on their intelligence and rationality. They fail to recognize that their desperate, pathetic attempts to appear completely nuanced and even-handed is in an of itself the most powerful scumtell in this game.

I attempt to play "completely nuanced and even-handed" in every single game. I've never once heard that used as a scum tell against me. I'd actually like to point out something from this post that was said about me. I was town, the poster was scum.
Mysterious Mystery Man wrote:
ICEninja, excuse me if this is too joking, but he really does look like a computer program designed to play mafia, he appears to be imitating human behaviour without getting emotionally involved in any way. I'm not really sure if that's town or scum.

In that game, I played very methodical and devoid of any gut reads. If I had the same amount of time to devote to this game as I did previous games, I'd be playing exactly the same.
Ivan wrote:
Real town is paranoid, inconsistent, and will often make leaps in logic that they can't really justify because they have an intuition about something. To be sure, some players will tend to be more rational even as town, and I have no doubt that ICE is such a player. Nevertheless, the tone and structure of his posts reveal his alignment pretty clearly to anyone who is willing to look.

He even admits exactly the truth in here. I am a rational player, but I simply don't make leaps in logic that I can't justify, at least in terms of deciding who to vote.

I now recall earlier in the game I had a gut scum read on Tommy, but never pursued it because I simply don't pursue gut reads unless I can qualify them. I believe I said as much. This is just how I play.
Ivan wrote:
Town simply does not think in those terms. Everything is put into such a narrowly defined box:

You're a narrow minded player if you think you can define how another player, who plays SIGNIFICANTLY different from yourself, thinks as town. You obviously have a strong gut read on me, but you haven't actually substantiated very much against me, despite what you may think. You really can trim your entire case on me down to "ICE is playing in a way I feel is different than how town plays". I realize that's the basis for scum hunting, but the examples you're using to present me as playing unlike town is exactly how I play town.

Now let's take a look at Beck's case against me.
It's a bit all over the place so I won't use quotes for this one, but it seems to simply be based on VCA, where my vote was and when, and the fact that he thinks I had terrible reasons to vote him yesterday.

My reasons for voting him yesterday came from pretty much the same thing as his reasons for voting me today: the situation in which lynches occurred, and where town and scum are more likely to be on them. Considering how hard you pushed yesterday at this being faulty logic, and then using it today, really gives me nothing to defend. It's just terrible.

TL;DR, there's very little substance in the cases against me. I'll do more scum hunting when time permits.
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Post Post #1460 (isolation #84) » Tue Aug 09, 2011 4:34 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Mod wrote:
I apoligize for prodding you. It was my mistake. I think it's because I looked at the activity overview and saw that you haven't posted in 3 days. I forgot that it was night all along.

Perfectly understandable. I was actually looking for something in the rules that indicates you need to PM your or post in a QT during the night to avoid a prod, as has happened to me in one other game, which would have accidentally proved my innocence.
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Post Post #1471 (isolation #85) » Wed Aug 10, 2011 3:14 pm

Post by ICEninja »

So right now it looks like the lynch pool isn't narrowed down by much.

Ivan is the closest thing we have to confirmed town. I really just don't see him being an SK unless we lynch scum and the game continues.

Beck is the least likely to be scum due to being a strong wagon competing with a scum wagon yesterday.

That leaves a lynch pool of 4 players with 2 remaining lynches. Historically I've had a slight town read on Scott, and I'm still really skeptical of vote 1 and 2 on a scum wagon being scum for Llama. It's possible that he's scum, but I'm leaning away from Scott being the lynch for today. Beck brings up some decent points, though, and I'm definitely not ignoring them. After all, listening to Beck lead to good things yesterday.

Giitah was indeed a competing wagon for scum, but it wasn't exactly as significant as, say, the sub vs Llama wagons. I don't feel like this slot is cleared, but I feel like it marginally decreases his likelihood of being town.

I realize I'm a lynch candidate, but I've explained why the reasons for lynching me aren't so great.

I'm going to therefore spend some time in the coming days delving more deeply in to Heliman's slot to see what there is to find. As of right now, it seems to me like this slot makes the most sense as scum.
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Post Post #1474 (isolation #86) » Wed Aug 10, 2011 6:40 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Beck wrote:
how can you say the Gitah wagon wasn't as significant when that wagon hit L-1?

Hmm. You're right, it did hit L-1. For some reason I don't remember it looking that convincing of a lynch, but that definitely isn't the case. I suppose Giitah is prob town at this point. I guess then it's between Heliman and Scott, where I'm probably going to prefer a Heliman lynch.
Ivan wrote:
And this is exactly the type of thing that would feel extremely awkward for you to write if you were town.

Funny thing is, I almost decided to take that out of my post because I figured someone would attack me for it. Regardless, Beck has made a lot of good arguments. I even acknowledged yesterday the good posting he was doing, which went a long way to town lynching scum instead of Beck. What he has to say carries a lot of weight with me right now as a result, and I'm not afraid to admit it.
Ivan wrote:
It's not your style that I'm after, it's your thought process. You aren't town, period.

I must say, considering how you've claimed to never have scum reads on VTs, you're playing terribly this game. With quite a lot of conviction, to boot. If you're actually bringing stuff up that points to me being scum, then like I said, we can debate about it. For now, everything you've said is pretty much "you've done this and that means you're scum" and the only response I can give is "no, I do that regardless of alignment".

If you're set in your ways, so be it, we still have another lynch after me. Town still has a good 50/50 or so.
Town: 14 wins, 14 losses
Scum: 3 wins, 2 losses
User avatar
ICEninja
ICEninja
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
ICEninja
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2999
Joined: December 20, 2009
Location: California

Post Post #1479 (isolation #87) » Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:38 pm

Post by ICEninja »

I believe you, Ivan. I know that if mafia was a 100% logical game I'd rarely lose it. There is absolutely a component to this game, a very significant one, that I do not do very well at, and compensate with solid cases and logical debate.

You're also right about the lacking of teeth this game. I have played this game fairly poorly, (I would consider this game a triumphant success were I scum, being alive this late in the game) and for that I do apologize. I can blame it on work and such, but what it ultimately comes down to is I just haven't had the same drive to put effort in to this game due to the shortage of free time.

I understand that if I am to be today's lynch, there is nothing I can really do to dissuade people's scum reads on me. These are points that I simply cannot defend against. Should I be today's lynch, I only request that you give me some time to do some proper scum hunting so you have a better chance during day 5.
Town: 14 wins, 14 losses
Scum: 3 wins, 2 losses
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ICEninja
ICEninja
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
ICEninja
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2999
Joined: December 20, 2009
Location: California

Post Post #1481 (isolation #88) » Thu Aug 11, 2011 5:40 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Except I'm not trying to get out of the lynch. The difference between town and scum at this point is as town, I don't lose at lynch. Scum probably would. It's not worth the effort because, as you said, it's futile, you're set in your ways. You're my opposite, of sorts. I can't get out of a vote from you, so I'm not going to bother trying. What I'm going to try to do is help town.

We just got a replacement anyway. I just don't feel like doing any heavy reading tonight. Give me the weekend.

What would you have to lose as town, anyway? If I flip scum, you can happily disregard anything I say. When I flip town, you've got helpful information. Rushing this matter only helps scum.
Town: 14 wins, 14 losses
Scum: 3 wins, 2 losses
User avatar
ICEninja
ICEninja
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
ICEninja
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2999
Joined: December 20, 2009
Location: California

Post Post #1486 (isolation #89) » Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:37 pm

Post by ICEninja »

Been a really long, really shitty day. Content will come tomorrow.
Town: 14 wins, 14 losses
Scum: 3 wins, 2 losses
User avatar
ICEninja
ICEninja
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
ICEninja
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2999
Joined: December 20, 2009
Location: California

Post Post #1491 (isolation #90) » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:34 am

Post by ICEninja »

Racer, did you not see the million times I posted that I have a full time job now and every other game I've been in I was a college student with many hours of free time every day?
Town: 14 wins, 14 losses
Scum: 3 wins, 2 losses
User avatar
ICEninja
ICEninja
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
ICEninja
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2999
Joined: December 20, 2009
Location: California

Post Post #1492 (isolation #91) » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:35 am

Post by ICEninja »

Fuck it, I don't care. I'm town, but do what you want.

It seriously isn't worth putting any more effort in to this game if everyone is going to be so thick headed.
Town: 14 wins, 14 losses
Scum: 3 wins, 2 losses
User avatar
ICEninja
ICEninja
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
ICEninja
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2999
Joined: December 20, 2009
Location: California

Post Post #1493 (isolation #92) » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:35 am

Post by ICEninja »

I don't even know who is scum at this point so just lynch whoever in lylo.
Town: 14 wins, 14 losses
Scum: 3 wins, 2 losses
User avatar
ICEninja
ICEninja
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
ICEninja
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2999
Joined: December 20, 2009
Location: California

Post Post #1495 (isolation #93) » Sat Aug 13, 2011 9:16 am

Post by ICEninja »

Still am town. Find that last scum.
Town: 14 wins, 14 losses
Scum: 3 wins, 2 losses
User avatar
ICEninja
ICEninja
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
ICEninja
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2999
Joined: December 20, 2009
Location: California

Post Post #1594 (isolation #94) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 4:57 am

Post by ICEninja »

I'm sorry i played terribly this game.

I'm at an extremely bad place in my life right now, so comments on the game will probably not be level headed. I'll refrain.

Congrats scum. ICE out.
Town: 14 wins, 14 losses
Scum: 3 wins, 2 losses

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