Mini 1190: Game over

[TheFool]

Hey, this has been an interesting game so far. Skimmed it a couple times, here's some random thoughts on the game state.

- Miller claim is a null tell. Not sure why it got that much discussion.
- The previous talk about having the vig off himself is silly, and the talk of directing his kill is pretty bad too. If he's scum he won't listen, if he's town I'd rather him make his own choice anyway.
- The current Hiplop wagon is pretty bad, but that's probably because I get a strong town read from Elfen.
- Hoppster's a better choice; he comes out looking pretty bad in the xvart/Hopp thing, though those posts are seriously hard to read, guys.
- CC's post #25 makes me twitch, and his whole ISO is pretty lurktastic.
- Beyond that, Panzer and Sleepy would round out my suspect list.
- Hope PBug and Toro come back..

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Hoppster

These vote tag dealies are pretty cool.

[TheFool]

Didn't even realize Thomith was missing, I was just going by prods. And I am Jake now..

Not really, no. If we're talking 'only viable wagon minutes before deadline, choosing between Hip and no-lynch', then sure, but there are numerous better options I'd rather persue.

While Elf's play was all over the place, it didn't seem all that scum-motivated so much as confused. In addition to that, ISOs 30 and 31 suggest that Elfen knew what the Town win-con was, and ISO 34 suggests that it wasn't from the opening post. While this could no doubt be a ploy, Elfen doesn't honestly seem that.. intricate. A brief meta of his other games helps confirm this. He also links to another site he played on in one of them, confirming that he comes from a mafia metagame far different than the one here. (the game he linked to does not have the town pm in the opening post)

All in all, it's a huge stretch for me to read Elfen as scum.

[TheFool]

Thomith, thoughts on the second half of 563?

One of the two(Xvart and Hoppster) are most likely scum because of the way they've gone after each other.

Which one?

TRENDING TOWN UNLESS I CHANGE MY MIND: Panzerjager, Sleepykrew
(...)
OMG am I actually going to get my Panzer wagon soon??

unvote, vote: SleepyKrew

Huh. With 5 people in your list scummier than Panz/Sleepy, why are you voting one and hoping for a wagon on the other?

[TheFool]

I'm not opposed to a Sleepy lynch.

Sunday, have you read the whole game?

Personally, I think the specific nature of the claim (ie '2-shot') and the rarity of the role itself (I can't recall ever seeing a player aligned with a non-town faction claim Bulletproof Town in a game that does not have an open setup) makes it unlikely that he's aligned with a non-town faction.

Serial Killers are often bulletproof, as occasionally are Godfathers. With a vig in the game, a bulletproof mafioso makes sense. That said, SK's claim is also completely unconfirmable, short of a depressing waste of a vig shot.

2. My view is that once somebody claims a useless role they should be lynched.

This is sort of an amusing stance coming from the Miller...

The only way I can attempt to explain is through poker. If me and another player are playing heads up, and I have every right to think that I have the better hand and then someone tells me that there is a good chance that he could be a guy who bluffs a lot, I'm gonna call because it will give me information I can use in the future.

And that's a valid point, but there's some cognitive dissonance between this and

Meta in general is garbage.

Captain corporals latest posts are so fucking scummy.

Agreed.

Sunday also ignored my question.
PEDIT: Yes, because that's what mastermind supergenius Krew does. WIFOM.
PEDIT2: Why don't we let the Vig shoot me tonight? It would waste a shot but show I'm telling the truth.

Throw away the vig's only shot to prove your role but not your alignment? Brilliant!

The whole WIFOM argument is, in itself, WIFOM, and the fact that you yourself brought it up makes it even more so.

PEDIT: The whole lynching town argument thing is really silly. Are you really 100% convinced he's town because he claimed bulletproof?

[TheFool]

CC, you do realize Sunday is Toro, right? He had a ton of posts and a role claim that he just quasi-verified. He's also posted 25 posts already in basically three days; how do you need more posting, and have a null read?

Your reads seem deliberately vague to leave some wiggle room; if you felt you needed more information you just had a whole night phase to do your reread.

VOTE: Captain Corporal

[TheFool]

Vote: Thefool

- I think SK's vote was distancing.

I'm not sure I understand; he wasn't voting for me.

[TheFool]

Fine, we let Toto live.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: jake
I'll just put that there while I read up on Hop.

Looks like an easy jump on a lurker when the old wagon didn't work to me.

[TheFool]

Not really feeling the xvart wagon; I've seen town tunnel like mad too often to think it's a scumtell, and it does help explain his D1 actions. His threat to hammer was out of nowhere, but Sundy's and Panzer's votes were pretty unprecedented too. It was really just a fast wagon.

For now, my money's on CC/Panzer.

[TheFool]

i don't understand this post. to me it reads "looks like sleepykrew jumped from my wagon to someone elses" even though jake is the same slot as you. correct me if im wrong.
for this post on how i understand it VOTE: TheFool

Empking thinks SK's motivation for that vote was distancing, I think it was just an easy lurker vote. I'm aware jake is me.

If I don't have a set of reads up (with evidence) in 24 hours, lynch me.

Looking forward to it!

[TheFool]

CC, why, when rereading everyone in the game, did you start with the people you already had reads for?

When I'm dead, take my scumreads into account.

You mean all one of them? The one who was town a page ago and is bussing his scumpartner who's also a townie?

That said, I honestly feel like scum would've tried a little harder to not completely discredit their own read list for no reason.
UNVOTE: for now.
I'm most interested in your reads on Panzer and Hoppster, if possible.

PEDIT: oh hey, suddenly posts!

[TheFool]

we have 10 days left till deadline and xvart is at L-1? starting to think the wagon could be scum motivated, can everyone on the xvart wagon please tell me why they think xvart is scum, please and thanks.

As of this post he was at L-3; PBug unvoted and it's 6 to lynch.

[TheFool]

Xvart cases are ridiculously scummy, I feel EXACTLY like Hoppster did when he was being attacked by Xvart. He says I've contradicted myself, when the posts he is using to say I contradicted myself are the very posts I'm explaining myself. Look at my post 282. I literally tell everyone why I found(don't anymore) emp to be lying. Seriously,

Read the entire posts

These just reaks of chainsaw defense and flailing.

His point that you focus on Emp's claim over SK's more dubious claim is interesting. Concerning 282, what made you think Empking is scum trying to throw off an investigation and not a miller following the often-quoted game theory that optimal miller play is to claim right away?

also, on meta, It's garbage because people don't use it correctly. Bad players like hiplop come in and try to base a case on meta on bad information(which i already talked about). If you base it correctly(like vollkan did) it can be a valuable tool, but most meta examinations are crap.

You commented in 447 that "You can't meta someone from 2 games". Vollkan only used one. Could you explain how Vollkan's meta case is better than hiplop's, which you primarily decried for sample size reasons?

You also haven't commented much on his case against your shifting stance on xvart/Hoppster, as far as I can tell.

Also:

My D-2 choice(emp cause I still don't like the claim) has 0 votes.

I literally tell everyone why I found(don't anymore) emp to be lying.

What changed your mind?

VOTE: Panzerjager

[TheFool]

whaaaat. My condolences to the mod.

It's somewhat concerning that CC replaces out under fire, especially since he does not appear to be replacing out in any of his other games.

TheFool: Why you be ignoring me?

You mean the ignoring your SK case Day 1 thing? I noticed it during my initial reads (it's much of the reason I listed him as a scumread upon replacing in); his wagon and subsequent lynch happened so soon after I replaced in I didn't have much time to elaborate.

If you mean why aren't I voting you anymore, a more in-depth read overnight made the case look shakier, and your above-mentioned interactions with SK don't read as bussing to me.

[TheFool]

Thomith, can you confirm masonage?

[TheFool]

Well, the mason claim helps clear the playing field up a bit.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: monk

If three more scum is a bit OP and you have a null read on me and scum reads on xvart and TheFool, why did you ISO Sundy instead of one of us three?

I am also confused about this.

[TheFool]

Horrible post was horrible

Well put. It reads like scum watching his wagon fall apart and flailing to find a better target, especially with the weak and out-of-nowhere jump to PBuG.

WTF? He is being charming? He has posted about five sentences, of which he could have easily pulled from a scum QT. He has given no real opinions of any of the major events of the game or why his reads are what they are.

This is a really odd point, do you think scum keeps an ISO of Sundy lying around just in case? Or are you assuming daytalk coaching?

Seriously, read Panzer's claim and the way his "mason partner" responds. It totally looks like Thomith didn't know that this was coming and scumPanzer claimed to save himself. And the whole fact that it appears they forgot that typical mason roles can communicate outside of thread and then when asked about it Panzer said "oooohhh we didn't ever use our obvious townie action of night talking especially considering all the juicy stuff in thread to talk about." Perhaps it is because they were actually talking about everything already in their scum QT?

Although I agree that the masonry claim is a bit unusually handled, it seems silly to lynch a claimed mason on Day 2. If they are scum, assuming a 3-man scum team they're putting all their eggs in one basket; it's a risky strategy that becomes riskier as the game goes on.

looking back fool kind of looks like they have the most connections to SK and EK's arguement about bussing makes sence thinking about it.

What are my connections to SK?

Well damn, Panzar is a mason? That changes things somewhat, it also means I'm gonna have to reread again. Dammit.

Keep in mind, deadline is rapidly approaching.

Out of curiousity, PanzThom, do you have daytalk capabilities?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: xvart

[TheFool]

Yes

Seriously? Then why did you yell at Thom about his bad choice of vote in-thread?

It is a risky strategy, which is further compounded by the way Thomith reacted and seemed completely oblivious to the fact that they were masons. It appears to me that Panzer, at the risk of being lynched (for good reason) claimed this mason thing (despite it contradicting his previous voting record on someone else who claimed to be a mason) to get people off his back. And it appears to be working.

My gut says that mason-claiming scum wouldn't claim daytalk if they didn't have it themselves. As such, Thomith's obliviousness isn't necessarily a scum tell, since he'd presumably be prepped for the gambit.

More to the point though, do you disagree that a masonry fakeclaim becomes flimsier as the game goes on, and is thus a bad lynch currently?

[TheFool]

A bit of digging reveals a recent normal game where masons, neighbors, and mafia all had daytalk. So for what it's worth, daytalk at least isn't non-normal.

This conversation isn't incredibly productive a day and a half before deadline; enough people are against a mason lynch that it's not a feasible choice right now.

unvote, vote: The Fool

Why?

[TheFool]

So with that in mind, who do you find scummy?

[TheFool]

TheFool you're starting to look town but your posts are still IIoA what are your thoughts on anything at all!!

Yeah, that's a bad habit of mine. Let me throw together a list of reads here.

From scummiest to towniest:

xvart: I had a townier read on him coming into the game, but don't like the recent play; his avoidance of the SK wagon doesn't help, and the comment in 920 about him looking better in ISO caused me to reread.. I think that's part of where my initial town read comes from

Sundy: play has been fluffy lately, ISOs 33 and 34 still seem like cognitive dissonance to me (34 indicates a long-standing desire for a panzer lynch, 33 has him 'trending town'), trying hard to ignore the xvart case (scumbuddies?)

monk: has good, well thought out posts, but man what was up with CC

Empking: been definitely coasting lately, but I like his earlier play

Heliman: I believe the vig claim for now and have obvious doubts towards a scum-vig, but he's been very fluffy (still no vote), Sunday's play was pretty odd, and Toro's not that great either, so worth keeping an eye on at least

Thomith: masonry aside, there's not much to go on, but I have a slight gut town read on Thomith

Panzerjager: I still like the case on him, but I believe the masonry claim for now

PBuG: good posting, push on SK doesn't read as bussing to me

Hoppster: also good posting, and I doubt even more that his huge-caps SK yelling is bussing

I'm not really sure how to order those last four, so I just threw them in there.

[TheFool]

while I don't agree with your motivation to misrep, you do agree that you have been, town enough for the moment
UNVOTE:

VOTE: TheFool

This post is terrible, since a few posts ago I was "starting to look town" and right after that you're moving for a hammer on xvart and pushing for a claim. His posting style hasn't changed all game, what changed your mind now? The fact that Thom also unvoted and you figured the wagon was losing steam, or that once you got the claim the lynch didn't look as useful?

Actually, re-reading my ISO I am going to go ahead and assign scum points to whoever said I was trying to ignore the Xvart case, for blatant lying. Let's see, who was that?

Your ISO shows only 2 posts mentioning xvart Day 2 before I said you were avoiding the case. Both are ambivalent and take no real stance on the issue, and the second is a brief off-hand comment. Somewhat odd considering how focal he's been this Day.

[TheFool]

Mod: Thomith unvoted

VOTE: xvart

Stop saying words and die scum, even if you're town you are being incredibly antitown and need to be removed from the game

Why the turnaround (again)?

[TheFool]

Hate you hate you hate you hate you

UNVOTE:
VOTE: TheFool

This is getting silly, and opportunistic.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: monk

TF needs votes.

Why?

VOTE: Thefool as both monk and thefool are under suspicon and i dislike that everyone who isn't voting xvart seems to be voting monk.

We are three weeks into the Day; we should be consolidating to a lynch at some point. Why are you against a focused town?

Also what happened to your belief in 1027 that we shouldn't run up any more claims today?

[TheFool]

I've had enough of this day can there be some form of something happen?

I could not possibly agree more. Specifically we need a lynch, a night phase, and some flips. We are no longer getting productive information from this Day and it needs to end. Scum benefit heavily from drawn-out low-activity periods like this entirely because town becomes demoralized and disinterested.

Mod: though I respect the need for replacements, a strict, unflinching deadline would do nothing but help the game at this point.

[TheFool]

Thank you!

[TheFool]

I'm willing to switch back to xvart, but that doesn't secure a lynch either =/

[TheFool]

VOTE: monk

[TheFool]

Works for me!
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Thomith

[TheFool]

Not unless they're also millers and conveniently forgot to claim!

That is L-1, for what it's worth.

[TheFool]

That's... a tough story to buy. However, I'd rather wait for word of Hoppster's investigation.

According to the wiki though, scum masons are "explicitly non-normal"...

[TheFool]

Fair enough.
VOTE: Panzer

[TheFool]

Odd ending to an interesting game, but I had fun in the meantime!

And yeah, this is a good "why scum shouldn't claim masons" game.

I was the tiniest bit worried on the last day since I didn't track Panzer going anywhere, but then he folded so it's all good.