Mini 1195: The Beehive Mystery (GAME OVER)

[Tommy]

Blimey - the silly stage was over within six posts. You people don't mess about.

Beck's joke seems harmless enough to me, given its timing. Captain Spoon's attack on it therefore seems a bit over the top, but I guess it helps to get some substance in early and he seems sincere.

I was somewhat suspicious of subgenius after post 13 ('Beck is scum, and Yank is his partner') - too certain and and he didn't explain it. But post 30 went a long way to putting that right.

I find Beck's post 15 a bit weird too: that's the one where he implies that he's familiar with subgenius's play. When subgenius called him on it, I asked myself why Beck would want to give a false impression like that. Can't think of one, so leave that for now.

I'm sympathetic towards Ivan the Pleasant's case against YankCane, though 'I've never seen a scummier post on page 1' sounds like exaggeration. Certainly, YankCane was wrong just to dismiss the charges out of hand (twice) before finally responding to subgenius's explicit challenge on the matter.

Really can't see where Spoon's vote comes from in post 24. Certainly he isn't providing any explanation himself (care to do so, Captain?); but I like that he called Acronach for lurking, and I distrust Ivan's attempt to invoke RVS long after it's gone.

ConfidAnon's debut is bizarre - apparently Acronach's crime is that he didn't start slinging his vote around immediately. Keeping a watch on that one.

rblinker123 seems right-headed but timid. Maybe that's just by comparison with the otherwise somewhat testosterony play so far (incidentally, testosterony is the real San Francisco treat).

[Tommy]

My timezone is BST (which is GMT+1).

My scumread on YankCane isn't as strong as ICEninja's, though it's there. I wouldn't vote for him yet. Like subgenius, I see post 49 as overly defensive stuff that could come from scum or town. 55 is pretty scummy, though: 'So if I'm Beck's scum-buddy, why not vote for him?' Yuck.

I like to put... conviction into my RVS votes to add that extra bit of pressure.

This sounds like an admission of dishonesty, but I've had to get used to people playing weirdly in the early game, so on its own this doesn't damn you. Claiming RVS still applied by post 24, though, is a bit much. Criticising Ivan for putting… conviction into early posts is rank hypocrisy. Voting Acro for not posting a random vote is just as wrong of you as it was in ConfidAnon, though maybe less suspicious - you're doing a good job of convincing me that you really do hold the (mistaken) belief that everyone should always have their vote on someone.

voting is the town's greatest weapon

Not voting is nearly always anti-town. You should always be applying pressure. How else are you suspposed to make the scum slip?

It's precisely because my vote is the my greatest weapon that I seek to preserve its value. I don't vote for someone unless I want to see them dead. Pressure can be applied through analysis, interrogation, discussion, argument.

ConfidAnon's position on Acronach seems to be subtly shifting (as SleepyKrew has noticed). Compare these two:

Vote: Acronach

Why hold your vote because we're out of the RVS? That would seem like more of a reason to vote to me, since there is at least something substantial (albeit not much) to discuss.

I doubt anyone would suspect you for not voting (again, not what I've ever suspected you for).

Come on ConfidAnon: what was your case on Acronach? Was it holding his vote, or what he said about it? If it was what he said about it, why didn't you say that in the first place?

I like subgenius's point that Acronach has been posting a lot but not providing much content, though I'm also interested in the speed of the resulting wagon.

SleepyKrew, could you summarise your case against Captain Spoon?

[Tommy]

SleepyKrew, could you summarise your case against Captain Spoon?

Flails and contradictions.

Where?

[Tommy]

I'm seeing a lot of heat and no light from both sides. I'd like you to give specific reasons for your vote.

[Tommy]

I see. Well, the second part of that only just happened. The first part is a weak case, but not that scummy.

Right now, I'm interested in ConfidAnon.

Also looking forward to seeing some contributions from Acronach, The Kool and GreyMarble.

[Tommy]

Ivan, you don't seem to be discriminating. Is your complaint against YankCane, Acronach or both?

[Tommy]

i'll also be watching SK.
1: it may be a bus
2: he's the only one i've played a full game with and he's been able to fool me before. if hes maf, it would be a good explaination as to why i'm the ML target.

Whoah whoah whoah. 'It may be a bus'? You can't bus a townie! You're talking about SleepyKrew's case against you, right?

[Tommy]

Oh no, hang on. I'm confused. SleepyKrew is going for Spoon, not you. So what do you mean by 'I'm the ML target'?

[Tommy]

I should have figured out a way to make my post clearer. The vote was caused by the overclarification I mentioned in a later post - however, I wanted to ask the question first to see what kind of an answer I would get (I haven't really gotten an answer yet). I'll give more on this after I get an answer, because it is directly related to the overclarification point, but I wasn't voting him for not voting.

Well, the bit of text under your vote looked a lot like a reason. You now claim it wasn't the reason, and that you waited until a later post to explain your vote. That sounds fishy. Here's another possibility: you are trying to sway with the wind. At the time of your vote, you judged that prevailing opinion was with the always-vote lobby. At the time of your 'explanation', you judged that it had swung towards the pressure-doesn't-need-votes lobby.

Acronach, please can you answer the question I asked you in post 193?

[Tommy]

I appreciate subgenius's campaign. Lots of good digging there.

Acronach, please could you answer the question I asked you in post 193?

[Tommy]

Acronach, thanks for the answer. I'm afraid you and SleepyKrew are certainly the most suspicious players at this point - partly because of the protection link that subgenius has been investigating, but mainly because of your slip in post 188. I had to ask you about it three times before you attempted to explain it. Maybe you were hoping I would lose interest and it would be forgotten.

Let's have another look at it:

i'll also be watching SK.
1: it may be a bus
2: he's the only one i've played a full game with and he's been able to fool me before. if hes maf, it would be a good explaination as to why i'm the ML target.

Your explanation has made it quite clear that you really were considering a possible attack by SleepyKrew on you when you said this. I think your use of the word 'bus' is a terrible mistake - at some point after posting you realised that it's only a bus if you're scum, which is why you evaded my question for so long.

I won't vote yet, because I want to hear more from Greymarble before the day ends.

[Tommy]

The original question from acro was directed at Subs, why did you answer it For him?

because that part of the post appealed to me and I felt I could answer it and explain SK's true motives

Why would you be trying to explain the motives of another player?

This is a damn good question. Points to Beck. A related question is, what makes you think you know what SleepyKrew's 'true motives' are?

[Tommy]

My scum list has four names on it. In order of decreasing scumminess:

• Acronach and SleepyKrew. Joint first place, for the reasons I gave in post 256 - and note also that Acronach hasn't talked about his fatal use of the word 'bus' yet. Care to comment, Acronach?
  
• ConfidAnon, for his attempt to revise history (see post 145).
  
• YankCane, for his fishy first post (but I wouldn't lynch him for this on its own).

I haven't included Captain Spoon on this list, despite the fact that he stepped in to answer a question directed at Acronach. Taking the rest of Spoon's play into account, I've decided that the mistake is typical of a hyperactive player who means well (talking about the Twisted Spoon head here). He's been scum-hunting with enthusiastic sincerity, as far as I can see. Also his attack on one of my top suspects helps to clear him in my mind - I don't think he's subtle enough to try an early bus.

Still not voting: still hoping to get some substance out of the Greymarble slot before the end of the day.

By the way, this is unacceptable:

Honestly, I haven't read the thread

[Tommy]

@ Tommy, how in the hell is Ivan not on your scum list?

I don't follow your argument. It looks to me as though one of the heads wants to vote for YankCane and the other one wants to vote for subgenius. Obviously the schizophrenia is somewhat impairing Ivan's ability to play, but it doesn't seem that scummy to me. Could you clarify where you think the lie was and lay out the evidence that it was a lie?

[Tommy]

Not bothering to log in as Ivan for this one.

This isn't acceptable either.

[Tommy]

Okay. So as I understand it, Beck, your case against Ivan is based on his post 302, which I reproduce here.

unvote

The two of us are in different states right now in terms of how much we've kept up with this game, and need to develop a more coherent understanding of what our respective roles are in this hydra thing. This is our first time trying this, and we apologize if our play has felt disjointed thus far.

I, for one, disagree vehemently with the subgenius vote that was made by the other head. If it were up to me, we would have been on Yank this entire time, which is what I thought we were doing...

vote Yank

Now, the same head had earlier voted for Acronach, as Ivan admits. You think this makes 'this entire time' a lie, but I think it's fairly clear from the context that the post in question is weighing up subgenius and YankCane, with Acronach left behind in the distant past. I'm sorry, but I think your case doesn't hold water.

But maybe that doesn't matter much to you any more, because I see that while I've been writing this, you've suddenly changed horses...

[Tommy]

Greymarble, thanks for giving some material on YankCane. Please could you flesh out your other reads with evidence?

[Tommy]

Hey Acronach, did you notice the question I asked you in post 321?

[Tommy]

sorry for anyone who has questions ect. for me. i'll try to get around to them

This is rot. I asked you a question in post 321 and reminded you of it in post 349. Then subgenius reminded you again in 356. Since then you've posted multiple times without addressing it. If we follow the pattern from last time we played this little game, this second reminder from me will do the trick.

@ Tommy -

Do you have a town meta on this site? If so, please link it.

Yes I do, though it's pretty old. Please see my wiki entry.

I'm leaning on the side of believing YankCane's claim. If he'd been scum, I think he would have claimed a two-mason set-up. Three is unusual, and his poor play suggests that he wouldn't engage in such creative WIFOM.

Right now I'm inclined to put my vote on Sleepy, but Sleepy took his vote off Yank before the claim which looks really good for him if Yank is indeed town.

But that was a while ago, before momentum built up on the Yankwagon. He only voted for a moment because of a mistake by Beck. His main target was Captain Spoon. I think he and Acronach are still the best lynch candidates today.

What I'd like is for Tommy to actually attemp to scum hunt

Seems a bit harsh.

Can somebody explain the case on acro and why he is a better lynch candidate than Ivan or SK

Sure, though I think the case on Acronach depends on SleepyKrew being scum. There are three parts to it. The first part is the fact that Acronach and SleepyKrew have been defending each other, as subgenius summarised in posts 232 and 351. The second part is the moment when Acronach accidentally used the word 'bus' when considering a possible attack on him by SleepyKrew (post 188). The third part is Acronach's consistent avoidance of my questions about post 188.

[Tommy]

So do you deny my points on him, or are you just ignoring what I say?

I like the second part of your post 331. As I've pointed out, I think your early case against him was somewhat fishy.

[Tommy]

Was skimming a bit this morning and missed this:

I was using the vote as a harsh lesson, that I AM willing to lynch someone who so thoroughly and effectively negates the town's primary means of finding scum. Scum or not, they need to go.

Don't like this. There may be circumstances that require a policy lynch, but a single instance of answering someone else's question isn't among them.

[Tommy]

Grey, If you could include reasoning for your probtown read on Acro, I would really, really be interested in seeing it.

Seconded. In fact, some reasoning for each of your reads would be welcome.

[Tommy]

Mod, you've got subgenius voting twice.

I don't.... Anymore. Thanks.

[Tommy]

I'll vote by the deadline. At the moment it looks very likely that my vote will be for Acronach. I'm waiting for Greymarble to provide some material first.

[Tommy]

The alternative explanation is simple: he's scum and he's lying. There's no need to invoke neighbours for that.

[Tommy]

I agree with ICEninja, though I confess I don't follow these bits:

If we have masons and they don't die, Yank is very obviously scum who just bought himself some time. If we have masons who don't want to out themselves yet and counter claim, giving up one of their own to prove Yank's guilt, then he's obviously scum who just bought himself time.

Anyway, I'm just twiddling my thumbs until either Greymarble turns up or we get near the deadline.

My scum list now looks like this:

• Joint first: Acronach and SleepyKrew, for mutual defense, the 'bus' slip and question evasion.
  
• Third: Greymarble, for lurking.
  
• Fourth: ConfidAnon, for revising history.
  
• Fifth: Da Koolzzy, for his gung ho attitude to policy lynching (I disagree that his attempt to hammer was scummy).

[Tommy]

I'm not really sure how you can declare them equally scummy when Sleepy jumped off the Yank wagon right as it was building steam (perfect time for opportunistic scum to be on a wagon, he was on early enough to evade suspicion) when Acro places an incredibly scummy vote on Yank at a poor time.

You're right that Acro was playing worse than Sleepy, but most of his scumtells implicated them as a pair. Now that Acronach has flipped town, my case against SleepyKrew has pretty much evaporated.

Which brings Greymarble up to first place on the Tommy scum-list. Mr Marble, come on down!

TOMMY HASN'T VOTED A SINGLE PERSON THIS GAME. WTF.

I was waiting to get some substance out of you first.

Why did you hammer Acronach instead of trying to persuade the town to vote for one of your suspects? Before you hammered Acronach, why didn't you give us reasons for your various reads?

Now, Ivan.

Scum:

Tommy
Greymarble
rblinker

- Ivan the Fool

Why? And why did you explicitly refuse to back up your reads even when rblinker challenged you? Are you slinging mud?

[Tommy]

Why does Acro's flip change SK's allignment?

My case against the pair was based partly on the fact that they were defending each other, but mainly on Acronach's scummy use of the word 'bus' when considering a possible attack on him by SleepyKrew (there was also some Acronach-only evidence that relied on his question evasion). So most of it disappeared when Acronach's alignment was revealed. There's still the fact that SleepyKrew was defending Acronach, and now I read back I see that I had it the wrong way around in my head - I thought that it was mainly Acronach defending SleepyKrew. But I don't really see how it would be in scum's interest to buddy up with a scummy-looking town player. I'm not saying it's a town tell (because that would be WIFOM), but I can't see much of a case against him either.

We were pretty much just slinging mud.

Don't like this at all, Ivan. Let's return to this quote here:

You're going down tomorrow though, don't worry. You are so scum it's not even funny.

Do you still think rblinker is scum? Did you ever think it? Please remove your tongue from your cheek before answering.

Tommy, why did you question ivan than provide him an answer to the question?

'Are you slinging mud?' isn't a lifeline, it's an accusation. He decided to jokily grab it as if it was a lifeline, which I find suspicious.

Greymarble, please answer the questions I asked you in post 539. Also, what's all this logic problem talk:

Sub, Ivan, or Sleepy are all in the running for third scumbuddy. Those 3 Tommy and Ice contain AT LEAST 2 scum.
I'm not wrong about more than 1 of Koolzy, CA, Blinker, Beck & Spoon towns.

'AT LEAST 2', 'not wrong about more than 1' - how do you know?

And as dumb as this sounds, I doubt grey is scum. Scum hammering like that would definitly draw extra attention on himself.

This is WIFOM. What if that's what he wants you to think?

I find Captain Spoon's defense of Beck persuasive.

[Tommy]

I now find SleepyKrew less suspicious than, say, ConfidAnon or Da Koolzzy. And certainly less than Greymarble and Ivan.

[Tommy]

I don't get why SK defended acro, as town it makes no sense to defend somebody you don't know the alliance to.

I agree that it's poor play, but it's conceivable that a town player would want to steer the town away from what he believes is a red herring.

That's why I'm on Kool now, he has yet to make a scum read on anyone and he isn't even attempting to scum hunt.

I have some sympathy for this, though I do think the infamous hammer-attempt post contained genuine scum-hunting. I realise that's controversial. More damning, in my opinion, is this:

I was using the vote as a harsh lesson, that I AM willing to lynch someone who so thoroughly and effectively negates the town's primary means of finding scum. Scum or not, they need to go.

Yuck. And note that he's backtracked since discovering that was unpopular:

I am unsure of policy lynches, but I do believe in attacking someone for hindering the town.

Right, next Beck question:

Explain why each is suspicious to you

Sure. Da Koolzzy I've covered. I discussed my problem with ConfidAnon (his revisionism) in posts 145 and 218, though this has been tempered with some quite pro-town play. Ivan has started chucking dirt about to see whether it will stick. People who challenge him on it get scorn but not answers.

Speaking of which: Ivan, please answer the question I asked you in post 568. I'm also looking forward to seeing your answer to rblinker's question.

Now, Greymarble.

My wagon was the only one other than Acro's with a reasonable chance of lynching.

This is simply untrue. You had six days till the deadline. That's plenty of time to launch a case against one of your suspects. I've been wondering why you didn't do that, which is why I asked you about it in post 539 and reminded you of the question in post 568. You've ignored the question three times, along with the question of why you were willing to go into the night phase without giving evidence for any of your reads. You and ICEninja will be thrilled to hear that I'm finally prepared to dust off my vote.

Vote: Greymarble

[Tommy]

I miscounted. You ignored my questions twice, not three times. Still twice too many, of course.

[Tommy]

Questions anyone?

Who do you think is most likely to be a member of the Mafia and why?

[Tommy]

Please could you point to some specific examples?

[Tommy]

I did not have enough townleaderpoints to make a new wagon happen on somebody I actually wanted to lynch.

I don't accept that. You had six days: that's enough time to turn people around. And did you feel that there wasn't even five minutes left to give the outline of the reasons for your reads before you did it? And did you feel that an Acronach lynch was preferable to no lynch at all?

[Tommy]

Ooh, I just thought of another question (this really is magnificent whisky): how about twilight? You could have taken the time to give some reasons for your reads after the hammer. Why did you let the night come without having your say? I think it's because you knew you'd survive the night. Certainly you were bright-eyed and bushy-tailed with your cases come morning.

[Tommy]

V/LA until Monday evening.

[Tommy]

I'm back from T in the Park.

Beck, subgenius and ICEninja seem to be agreed that the way forward is to pick a lurker and pressure them with votes until they contribute. I see the attraction, though I'm worried that that kind of vote can turn into a full-blooded killer vote without the voter really stopping to consider whether they're targeting the scummiest player. Bandwagons have their own momentum.

I still think we should lynch Llamarble, because he hammered a player he'd thought was town and showed signs of knowing he'd survive the night. But I seem to be the only one who thinks that.

If we're going to wagon a lurker, let's pick the scummiest one. Like jilynne and Da Koolzzy (and for that matter, ConfidAnon and Captain Spoon), Ivan has failed to contribute any content recently. Unlike those players, though, he's also posting scum lists without backing them up. Hard to know what to make of this, because it's pretty obviously bad play as scum or town. But I think it could be an inept attempt to fish for support - maybe he's hoping people will seize on one of the names in his list and say 'yeah, I think they're scummy too'.

So my (distant) second choice after Llamarble is Ivan the Pleasant. Beck, subgenius and ICEninja, if you guys want to pressure a lurker, let's choose him. Looks like one head's disappeared and taken half the scum-list with him, but maybe we can squeeze something out of him on subgenius and rblinker.

Vote: Ivan the Pleasant

[Tommy]

I don't disagree with the Ivan vote, but I'd like to keep my vote on jilynne at least until she returns from her V/LA later today.

Fair enough.

Mod, please could we have another vote count?

[Tommy]

FoS scumbuddy vote townie is one of those tells scum just have a really hard time avoiding.

Could you unpack this sentence a bit?

(Also, I'm assuming you still don't want to answer the question of why you went to bed with your reads unexplained?)

[Tommy]

Lack of explanations was mostly due to not having enough gametime.
I hammered at 4:15 AM so it's not like I was going to be doing deep casemaking that evening.

Excuse me for a moment. [

Retrieves jaw from floor.

] Thank you for answering my question. It pains me to say it, but I believe what you say. It also gives you a reasonable alibi for not having returned to back up your reads during the nine hours of twilight. I note that you didn't post on any forum until Tuesday. So my case against you is reduced to the scumminess of the hammer itself (on someone you thought was town) and your slowness in responding to my questions. I still think you're scum, but it doesn't look like I'm going to sell that to anyone else today.

Your argument requires achro to be scum therefore you should be voting achro if you actually believe what you're saying.

I never understood this. Subgenius was arguing that Acronach and SleepyKrew were a scum pair. Surely, then, it didn't matter which of them he was voting? Ivan's other points on subgenius look so thin as to suggest he's had to put the case together now, retrospectively.

Welcome, Magic Trainer. I like your case on rblinker. He's certainly cautious and hasn't been contributing much, and those are mild scum-reads. If there weren't better options, I'd be happy with an rblinker lynch. I'll stick within YankCane's non-mason list for now, but let's not discourage scum-hunting outside the list.

Ivan, you claimed to have a case on rblinker too. How about sharing it with us?

A Vanilla Townie is super boring.

Very disappointed about this unprovoked claim.

[Tommy]

Gut is bothering me, so here's what I propose. We run up Koolzzy and Jil both to L-1.

Then at that point I'd like either BLINKER or Tommy to hammer. This way, we have to legitimate wagons to get SOMETHING out of regardless of what Jil flips.

If we follow your plan, what will we learn if jilynne flips town? And what will we learn if she flips scum?

[Tommy]

What I'm thinking is, if we two decent wagons we can compare and contrast them

I dare say that's true, but if we have two artificial wagons orchestrated by you, we can't do a lot with them. I'd prefer a Koolzzy or jilynne lynch to no lynch, but I'd rather see Llamarble or Ivan swing.

[Tommy]

I suspect Llamarble because of his eagerness to hammer someone he'd announced a town read on, and because he's been avoiding questions. I suspect Ivan because he's been accusing people and then refusing to justify his accusations.

[Tommy]

How can the first of these statements possibly be taken to mean the second?

were not really guna get a lynch on someone being replaced anyway.

Subs, yeah i agree with you lol, thats what i meant, i would want to hear from the replacement before lynching them.

I think rblinker's behaviour is becoming rather fishy.

I need to make a case on a leaning scum vibe? Not really

It would be helpful if you gave your reasons.

Welcome, Scott Brosius. Yes, you should take a look at YankCane's claim post, which outs a list of players as non-masons.

[Tommy]

I welcome Scott Brosius's vote on Llamarble. That and jilynne pulling out give me new hope for a Llamarble wagon.

Vote: Llamarble

Vote Llamarble, people! He hammered Acronach even though he thought Acronach was town. He claims there wasn't time to hammer anyone else, but there was ages. He's been avoiding questions.

Mod, please replace jilynne.

Enjoy math camp, jilynne.

[Tommy]

I still feel that Beck is town. He's been earnestly scum-hunting and giving a great impression of frustration at not knowing who to vote. I think that his post 756 is a reasonable explanation of the apparent flip-flop on Ivan.

I think Subgenius ably revealed the thinness of Ivan's case on him. It seems like every time Ivan opens his mouth he shows how little he's concentrating on looking for scum. No wonder he's reticent to expand on his other reads. I'm becoming increasingly happy with the idea of lynching him.

[Tommy]

I quite like Scott so I'll take my vote off of kool

You quite like him? Do you mean his behaviour makes it less likely that Koolzzy was scum? How so?

[Tommy]

It was Llama.

[Tommy]

Masons aren't usually allowed to communicate during the day. YankCane was just making sure that the people on his scum list couldn't claim mason. I think, all else being equal, we should lynch from the list, but if we can find good reasons to lynch somebody not on it, we shouldn't hesitate to do so.

[Tommy]

Okay. Well, either way. We shouldn't stop investigating people who aren't on the list.

[Tommy]

Town doesn't talk in terms of "becoming increasingly happy with the idea" of something. They just do things.

I can only vote for one person at once. I still think Llamarble is the scummiest. How do you reckon town players ought to discuss their changing suspicion levels? Or do you think they shouldn't?

[Tommy]

Saying I have a town read on someone isn't 'buddying'. Saying I agree with someone isn't 'unsolicited defense'.

Now that you're back, Ivan the Fool, how would you feel about explaining why you suspected me before post 770? Also, why was ICEninja on your scum list?

[Tommy]

Tommy, can you explain how I was 3rd on your list to lynch after marble and Ivan, to thinking I am town in just 4 days... so I would like you to point out what I said between ppst 635 when you made that comment in post 770

I've always thought you were town. I can't find anything in post 635 that suggests otherwise. If you'll quote the bit that gave you that idea, maybe I can explain.

I would also like a better case on why you want to lynch marble, because basically your reason with your vote was he hammered a townie and he is avoiding questions, while it is frustrating I know, I have learned on this site that avoiding questions isn't always a scum tell

True, avoiding questions on its own wouldn't be enough to convict him. The main plank of my case is that he hammered someone he thought was town with six days to go before the deadline. If you've come across town players doing that before, then don't vote for him. I think it's the biggest scum-tell we've seen this game.

What are these questions I'm supposed to have been avoiding?

There are none outstanding, but it was like getting blood from a stone. Please see posts 539, 568, 576 and 586.

Ivans, please get your shit together. You announced suspicion of rblinker, ICEninja, me and subgenius. So far you've presented a reasonable case against subgenius, and taken apart a recent post of mine. But we need more than that. You must back up your historic suspicion of rblinker, ICEninja and me.

[Tommy]

Ice's last few posts are incredibly mechanical I think this for this reason posts.

Are you saying he's too town to be town?

[Tommy]

the only thing I can say about marble is I don't really know where he stands

So you find his hammer entirely unremarkable?

[Tommy]

You can't learn much from a hammer really

This statement is staggering.

[Tommy]

the only thing I can say about marble is I don't really know where he stands

is marble scummy? yes

You're managing to dig yourself a very deep hole in a very short time.

just cause he hammered an obviously scummy person isn't reason enough to lynch somebody

Are you deliberately watering the case down? He didn't just hammer an obviously scummy person. With no explanation other than self-preservation, he hammered a person

who he'd said he thought was town

.

[Tommy]

Tommy is on my wagon pretty much entirely because "LOLOL U HAMMAH"
SB & Ice are "LOLOL U HAMMAH AND NOT MASON"
Sub is "LOLOL I VOTE U BY ASSOCIATOIN TO PROBTOWNBECK"
NONE OF THESE CONCERN MY ACTUAL POSTING ASIDE FROM VOTES.
These are NOT town reading deeply and thinking about things.
ALL ARE PICKING OUT THE EASIEST SHALLOWEST AND LEAST MESSY THINGS TO TALK ABOUT.

This is a straw man. I've been extremely concerned with your posting aside from votes. Every time you avoided a question, I took note and drew the town's attention. And my case is more subtle than you give it credit for. It's actually LOLOL U HAMMAH PLAYER YOU THINK TOWN WITH 6 DAYS LEFT. I can't believe you tried to misrepresent it by simplification so soon after I called Beck out for doing exactly the same thing. You guys are in melt-down.

[Tommy]

Tommy's reason is solely based off the hammer and because jilly has become disinterested in the game

That's slightly wrong. I mentioned in my vote post that her replacement gave me hope for a Llamarble wagon, because a new player might be willing to vote for it. I think you misinterpreted that as being part of my case.

Mod, please could we have a deadline extension to give jilynne's replacement a chance to read and vote (and claim if necessary)?

While I've got you, Beck, I don't understand why you think that defending a confirmed townie is such a sure-fire scum-tell. Sometimes a town player defends a town player, right?

Now, it looks like I have a juicy case to answer.

Without voting, he lets other people take full responsibility for the wagons, meaning people get lynched without him getting his hands dirty. He leads on others suspicions, without putting himself out there. This is ideal scum play. Look like you're doing shit without actually doing it.

I take as much responsibility for the Acronach wagon as the people who voted for it. I made it clear that he was my top suspect, and that I was holding off my vote until I could get some content out of Greymarble. I didn't want day 1 to end until I had at least some material from every player. In the end, Greymarble hammered before I had the chance to place my vote.

So, when I entered this game and stated Tommy one as of my scum reads, he ignored it. Completely.

Yes. To explain your suspicion you pointed to a Greymarble post which I felt I'd addressed already. There didn't seem much to add except for 'Hey! Don't suspect me, I'm a goodie!' Which wouldn't have been much of a contribution.

Hell, in my case against blinker I criticized blinker for voting Llamarble based on his hammer, this is the same reason Tommy was voting Llamarble. Yet he ignores THAT as well.

Hmm. When you say you criticized him, I guess you must mean this paragraph:

Iso #13: Suspicion of Grey. This is just going after an easy target. iirc all his suspects at this point consist of Sleepy/Acron/Llamarble. The former two were prime time suspects and the latter is suspected for his hammer.

You weren't really criticising all hammer-based votes so much as rblinker's sheeping (or that was my understanding). I had no problem with this as part of your larger picture of rblinker coasting. Llamarble was indeed an easy target, partly because I'd been leading the charge against him.

EVEN when he was responding to my idea, he doesn't even bother to ask WHY I would ever suspect little ol him.

Think I've already answered this bit. I knew why you suspected me, and I felt that I'd already addressed it.

even later on when I put him on the spot light, he doesn't bother to ask WHY I suspect him? Why? He was curious to know when Ivan asked, so why not ask me as well? (Because he's scum who doesn't care atm)

Because I knew, because I knew, because I knew.

Hell, take a look at this comment by Grey, who stated he knew 2/3 scum in X list. I said a similar thing, but no reaction to my accusation.

Ah yes. Now, here you have a good point. Frankly, I felt a bit silly when I picked up Greymarble's one. This 'at least two of these five'-type talk is something I've always found weird, but it's so common on this site that it's hardly a scum tell. I did notice when you did it later, but I said to myself, 'Come on, you're not going to criticise that stuff twice in the same game, are you? People will just start thinking you're a dick.' You've correctly identified an inconsistency. I flagged one instance out of two, but I think I should have flagged neither.

Lasly, I have a question for you. On Ivan you say this:

I can easily relate to WHY he suspects certain people and understand his reasoning.

What? Half his reads have no reasoning whatsoever! If you happen to know why they're there, could you enlighten the rest of us?

[Tommy]

Has jilly been replaced?

Not yet.

At the moment I don't really like the Marble wagon, as I've seen town make idiotic hammers before, even on their town reads (actually I can link one exactly like this, if any of you want).

Yes please.

[Tommy]

I'd rather the day didn't end till you find a replacement, especially if that's the slot we end up lynching.

[Tommy]

A player defending a player where his alliance is unknown is sketchy and is a tactic commonly used by scum.

Yes, but it's also something town players sometimes do, for a variety of reasons. So again I ask you, why do you think SleepyKrew's defense is such a certain sign of scum?

[Tommy]

Can you show me an example where somebody defended another person so strongly day 1, and they were both town and not masons together?

Well, in Mini 659, Rashiminos (town) got in some trouble for defending crywolf20084, who later turned out to be scum. Check out the first post on this page.

I'm pretty sure I understand what a hydra is (it's two accounts under one player, right?)

It's actually the opposite: two (or more) people posting from the same account. Each of these people has an account of their own, and sometimes they accidentally post from their personal account. So archaebob, Twistedspoon and so on are one-person accounts who shouldn't be posting in this game, but their owners are members of hydras who should. As Beck points out, if you assume that archaebob and Ivan are the same person, you'll get into trouble because that hydra has some... internal issues.

[Tommy]

all the way back to 2008 to find that one? that's a stretch

I don't play very often. For me, it was the game before last. Maybe you don't have a particularly open mind on this issue?

So, I've been rereading Sleepy to find all this PRO OMG SUPER DEFENDING.

But all I see him calling Acro a vi, and his final conclusion is "Acro is no way in the clear"

Is the uber defense we're all talking about or am I missing something?

It's not just the VI accusation. Have a look at subgenius's anthology.

Is the only reasoning to kill him based on 'HE HAMMAH'D BECAUSE HE WANTED TO LIVE! SHOOT HIM!'

No, self-preservation is a positively encouraged. Llamarble's problem is that Acronach was on his town list and he made no attempt to lynch any of his scum reads.

[Tommy]

Because I knew, because I knew, because I knew.

Huh. Weird. I could have sworn I didn't mention it at all, the closest thing I've said was I was sheeping Grey's suspicion. Still really bothers how you've seemed to ignore this all.

Hang on, matey. Did you say you were sheeping Grey's suspicion or did you not mention it at all? Because those two things are different. It seemed to me that you sheeping Grey's suspicion was enough justification for an initial scum-read on me. I didn't think it was a well-founded suspicion, but I also didn't think it was so bizarrely out there that it couldn't fool a new replacement who'd been skimming. As I've mentioned, I felt that I'd addressed Grey's point already, so I left it. When you presented a substantive case, of course I saw the need to answer. I've never ignored you.

I'm assuming we suspect you and blinker for similar, if not same reasons.

Assuming? So are you happy that Ivan's failing to back up his reads?

It's not just the VI accusation. Have a look at subgenius's anthology.

This is some pretty weak shit.

Agreed. It felt stronger yesterday, when we thought Acronach was scum.

I'll say it again, neither Llama Dona Ding Dong and That Glit guy are scum. So can we have wagon #3 ready to go sometime soon?

I'll have no part of your subgenius wagon. His play has been the most pro-town of anyone. (How's that for buddying, Ivan?)

The"list" Acro put out there could have been a ploy to throw mafia off

Masons could very well be on the list. I'm just sayin

Honestly, Beck. Firstly, the list was YankCane's, not Acronach's. Secondly, YankCane is confirmed town and wouldn't have deliberately misled the town as his dying move. I thought you liked the list. Now that it doesn't suit you, you're trying to undermine it?

Also, if SleepyKrew's defending was such a surefire scum-tell, how can it be possible for Giitah to win you round?

[Tommy]

If SleepyKrew's defending was such a surefire scum-tell, how can it be possible for Giitah to win you round?

[Tommy]

He isn't off my shit list

Yes, but do you still feel that he's definitely scum?

[Tommy]

Heh. This is the only part where I explained before my case,

<#536: Yeah. Tommy's obi scum. Sheeping the latter part of this. Disagree with his Ice sentiments though>

I take it you didn't really read my post? Or am I misunderstanding something?

No, I read the post, and the bit you quote is the bit I'm talking about. If you're misunderstanding something, tell me what it is and I'll try and put you right.

[Tommy]

If you've read it, then what's the question? I agreed, and still do agree with Llama's sentiments about your lack of voting Day 1 (Yes I'm aware you've explained it, and I don't buy it)

That's fine. I wasn't asking you a question; I was responding to your case.

Why are you against the sub wagon?

I think he's town. He's been scum-hunting hard. He's been digging up dirt on Beck. He was a key player in the Acronach case - I know Acronach turned out to be town, but he was scummy and Subgenius helped to show that.

[Tommy]

I felt SK was scummy, but that was mostly due to the argument of defending, I have now seen examples that dis-prove that as a scum tell so while I still feel SKs play was bad, it's not bad enough to lynch when a more severe crime has been committed.

This is what I was looking for. In the heat of the Beck/subgenius battle, I was sure Beck and Llamarble were a scum-pair in melt-down. But the above quote is a comfort: I think Beckscum would have more persistent tunnel-vision than this. My read on Beck is back to town.

[Tommy]

Creepy guy in the avatar.

Hey, that's my face!

My opinions for what needs to happen today probably aren't going to change before deadline. I suspect others feel similarly. I suggest everyone clearly state (or restate, if you're like me and have already pointed it out) for obvious reference their 3 strongest lynch preferences, in order. If you haven't made it crystal clear in the past few pages why you want this player lynched, a quick explanation of your read would be helpful.

This will give everyone, even the people who aren't participating much, clear record of what everyone's reads are and who our viable lynch picks are for the day. With the time left until deadline, no one should be voting for anyone other than the top 3 or so clear lynch picks.

This is a damn good idea. My top 3 preferences are Llamarble>Ivan>rblinker. Llamarble because he hammered Acronach with six days left even though he thought Acronach was town, and made no attempt to present a case on any of his scum-reads at the end of day 1. Ivan because he's been mud-slinging by his own admission and refuses to back up his reads (spotting a pattern?). rblinker because I was persuaded by Magic Trainer's case.

[Tommy]

Mod, please can we have another vote count?

[Tommy]

Beck, if you're in a position to give even a partial answer to ICEninja's question now, that would be helpful. Otherwise do your reread as quickly as you can.

[Tommy]

ICEninja's choices: Llamarble > Giitah > Beck
subgenius's choices: Llamarble > Beck > Giitah/Ivan
Llamarble's choices: subgenius > Tommy
Tommy's choices: Llamarble > Ivan > rblinker
Magic Trainer's choices: Tommy > subgenius > Ivan
Scott Brosius's choices: Llamarble > Tommy/Beck
Beck's choices: Giitah/Llamarble/subgenius
Ivan's choices: subgenius/Tommy

Not posted choices yet even though he's around: Giitah
Not posted choices yet due to having naffed off: rblinker, Spoon

Assigning 3 points for a first choice, 2 for a second and 1 for a third (and using averages to deal with the people who've posted tied places), here are the town's provisional lynch candidates in order of preference:

Llamarble (14 points)
subgenius (9.5)
Tommy (9)
Giitah (4.5)
Beck (4.5)
Ivan (3.5)
rblinker (1)

So there you have it. Death by maths. Provisionally.

Ivan, although you have posted a case on me, it was based on a post of mine that came long after I appeared on your scum-list. You ask, "What exactly is anyone's issue with us?" A big part of my issue is that you've consistently avoided answering the following question: what was the basis for your initial scum-read on me?

[Tommy]

So you, Ivan the Terrible, think I'm scum based solely on post 770?

[Tommy]

Read the following case. It's signed Ivan the Fool.

You mean there's one coming up?

You'll find out why I think you're scum when I decide to lynch you.

I think it would be useful to the town if you were to share all relevant information with them expediently. But you're not in the business of being useful to the town, are you?

[Tommy]

I mean the immediate next post we made after the post you made and quoted.

Oh I see. So you both suspect me, but only the Fool has posted a case, and even that was retrofitted onto an existing read. And you, the aptly-named Terrible, point-blank refuse to present any kind of case at all. Stop me if I'm being unfair.

Tommy, the opinions you left off your list were Giitah, who said he didn't want to lynch me, and Blinker/Spoon whose votes indicate they preferred a Giitahwagon over mine.

Giitah responded by scattering six points over six candidates, which made little difference. You're right that rblinker and Spoon could put Giitah into the top three if they chose to. But whatever they do, you'll still be the runaway favourite.

And lynching by Condorcet is a terrible idea anyway as it makes the scum "I'mma make sure that the lynchcandidate who is scum isn't the one who gets lynched" plan even easier to execute than normal.

True. But we're at a bit of an impasse, and that's a bad reason for a no-lynch.

Assume my hammer is a towntell. Is there ANYTHING ELSE that would make you want to lynch me?

Not really. You lurked on day 1, but if it wasn't for the circumstances surrounding your hammer, I'd be campaigning against Ivan.

Just because it's WIFOM doesn't mean it isn't true.

Bless you for trying that.

[Tommy]

What possible reason could there be for me to post a case anyway?

How about because the day's about to end, you're not sure you'll survive the night, and you want the town to have all the information they need tomorrow?

[Tommy]

Unless of course you're scum, in which case you're perfectly safe from night-kills and might well be talking the way Ivan is.

[Tommy]

22 hours and 45 minutes.

[Tommy]

Don't believe you for a second. You can't even manage useful content now, when your life depends on it.

[Tommy]

either way, i don't think marble should go today. There are better candidates

Think you might have left it a bit late there, Captain. You have eleven hours to prepare a case against someone and organise a flashmob.

[Tommy]

Here's an unofficial one:

Subgenius (3)- Ivan the Pleasant, Magic Trainer, Llamarble,
Giitah (2)- Captain Spoon, rblinker123,
Llamarble (5) - Scott Brosius, Tommy, ICEninja, Subgenius, Beck

And Magic Trainer's promised a hammer when he wakes up. Which I guess will be in four hours or so.

[Tommy]

As I've explained before, I was ready to vote Acronach, but I was waiting to get some content from Greymarble first. I didn't want to go into the night without a read on every player. As it turned out, Greymarble hammered before I got a chance to vote.

[Tommy]

D1 tommy was super conservative with his vote. Now that Myslynches are everywhere you turn your head today; Marble, Ivan, the vote has been going much more. Not sure what to think

Well, today I know more about the players. I'm more comfortable lynching when I have a strong scum read.

[Tommy]

Llamarble seems to have given up in post 1079. I don't think you'll get a case out of him.

Spoon provided his reads in post 1090.

[Tommy]

Can you stop posting from the wrong account?

[Tommy]

Pretty sure Giitah's town because there was a Giitah wagon up against the Llamarble wagon for much of day 2. Also pretty sure Magic Trainer is town because of his hammer. He could have let Llamarble live, but he didn't. I'm happy to believe Whiskers' claim.

If Ivan's lying, the real vig should counter-claim now. If you accept the logic of my first paragraph, trading a vig for a scum at this point would leave a pool of three people with one scum amongst them. We'd have two lynches to catch this scum. The chances are good.

Assuming no counter-claim, the process of elimination is working quite well here. There must be two scum amongst Beck, ICEninja, Scott Brosius and me. Difficult, that, because they're all people I was feeling pretty town about.

Who was the one trying to say blinker was scum?

Magic Trainer suggested it, and I agreed with him. Can't remember who else liked that case.

you had a lack of interest in helping catch scum

I think that's unfair. If you look at my ISO instead of the mod's, you'll find plenty of scum-hunting activity from me.

Your reason you gave for not voting day 1 was weak so I'll go with scum

I have played that way before, if it helps:

I'm nearly ready to vote. I need to do a bit more work to make sure I have a read on everyone.

Next, Whiskers seems to have got confused:

Why aren't we also hunting the SK? Thre is a Serial Killer, right, that's not just somebee's name?

Think you might have found a bit where someone was talking about SleepyKrew, who was replaced by jilynne and then Giitah. Given that there was only one death during night 1, it's very unlikely that we have a serial killer.

As to the mason claim, shall I post some (paraphrased) speculation from the thread?... I'm not sure it's useful

Probably not then.

I'm pretty sure NOBODY can argue Tommy is town

I'll give it a whirl. If I'm scum, that was quite a bus on day 2. It started with my first post and ended with Llamarble's death. In particular, if I'd been scum I would have used post 635 to get off the bus:

I still think we should lynch Llamarble, because he hammered a player he'd thought was town and showed signs of knowing he'd survive the night. But I seem to be the only one who thinks that.

But instead, as soon as Scott Brosius turned up and voted for Llamarble, I hopped straight back on the wagon:

I welcome Scott Brosius's vote on Llamarble. That and jilynne pulling out give me new hope for a Llamarble wagon.

[Tommy]

Frankly I'd support a lynch of any of Beck, ICEninja or Scott Brosius.

But I've been having a look at people's ISOs, and my marginal preference is Beck. His poor play has been balanced by some town-tells, but in light of Llamarble's alignment, this gymnastic display does stand out a bit:

I can't support a marble wagon because Ice is supporting a marble wagon and since I believe he has proven his ability to make good decision making sucks, I will not be on any wagon he is pushing. Not to mention I have not seen a really valid case for his lynch.

the only thing I can say about marble is I don't really know where he stands

You can't learn much from a hammer really

is marble scummy? yes

as for the hammer, I honestly don't think mafia would be dumb enough to hammer someone they know is going to flip town AND SAY THEY THINK THEY ARE GOING TO FLIP TOWN

What marble did doesn't make sense as marble scum

that hammer made NO SENSE as scum, none because it was draw attention to themselves.

I said that hammer makes him look bad, yes I did because the hammer WAS bad, but that doesn't mean that makes him scum and it doesn't mean that he isn't a viable lynch

Vote: Beck

[Tommy]

there is absolutely nothing wrong with those string of posts and I stand by them 100%

But they contradict each other.

but please note until today, tommy had been saying I was pro-town.

I still have a town vibe on you even now. I'm in the difficult position of looking at three town reads and knowing two of them must be wrong.

And yeah, it is scummy to hammer a town, and very town-points winning to hammer a scum, no matter what alignment the hammerererer is.

And that's a good enough reason why Tommy looks scummy.

Think you might be a bit mixed up again there. It wasn't me who hammered town; it was Llamarble.

I like the word hammerererer though.

[Tommy]

they don't contradict each other

Either "You can't learn much from a hammer" or "that hammer makes him look bad", but not both. Either Llamarble looked scummy as a result of it ("is marble scummy? yes") or he didn't ("that hammer made NO SENSE as scum"), but not both.

so if i have a town vibe from you, why are you voting me?

that is EXACTLY what marble did and he was scum.

There were people he thought were scummier (or so he claimed): he could have attacked them instead. I have more information now than he had then. You seem town, but everyone else seems more town.

Tommy, i'd like you to give me your top 2 scum suspects currently and why are they scum in your opinion

My top suspect is you. Joint second are Scott Brosius and ICEninja. Although all three of you seem town, this list is what remained after I ruled everyone else out in post 1186. The reason you're ahead of the other two is that your position with respect to Llamarble shifted back and forth uneasily during your battle with subgenius.

[Tommy]

Not sure we're getting anywhere. If you think the hammer made him look bad, then you've learnt something from the hammer. Just repeating your earlier statements isn't going to change that.

You also seemed at the time to suggest that Llamarble was scummy because of his hammer, but in other posts you apparently felt that the hammer had zero force as a scum tell. I still see a contradiction there too.

It's this stuff that I'm talking about when I say you were shifting back and forth, not your voting record on deadline day.

you didn't provide reasons for Scott and ice other than process of elimination, that isn't good enough

I don't have reasons other than process of elimination. I think they've both played very well. What do you want me to do?

[Tommy]

I promise you I've looked hard at their ISOs, and they seem town. There was that moment when Da Koolzzy overdid the principle of a policy lynch and then later rolled back on it, but nothing like the mess you got in over Llamarble. Sometimes the evidence just isn't there. I refuse to fabricate it to gratify you.

[Tommy]

Supports my statement that you don't learn anything from a hammer

No it doesn't! He just said he learnt MT was town from the hammer. Honestly, you and hammers. It's a mess.

[Tommy]

I understand that that's your position, but I think you were commenting on Scott's position. And blatantly misrepresenting it.

[Tommy]

Tommy, what's your opinion on Giitah?

As I said in my first post of the day:

Pretty sure Giitah's town because there was a Giitah wagon up against the Llamarble wagon for much of day 2.

In fact, it was a jilynne wagon most of the time. (Beck was on it, by the way.) To that I would add that I had early suspicion of SleepyKrew which largely disappeared when Acronach flipped town. jilynne made an unprovoked vanilla claim, which I would count as a minor town-tell (though an anti-town move).

Anyway, you can speculate, but you don't LEARN anything from a hammer. Providing the hammer made him look bad because of when he did it. The hammer itself did n't give you any information. The EARLY hammer (all emphasis on EARLY) is what gave the info.

To me, this stuff looks as phony from you as it does from Beck, but I'll drop it because I think I've already pointed it out as clearly as I can.

It's not hard to go back and re-read to make a case, so Tommy saying he isn't able to isn't a good enough reason

I'll tell you what might help, Beck. I'll post an analysis of Scott's ISO and one of ICEninja's ISO. They'll come out as town reads, even though at least one of them is scum, because they're good players. But maybe it'll stop you worrying that I'm trying to coast through the day without effort. I have a long train journey tomorrow, so mobile reception permitting, I should be able to do at least one of them then.

From tomorrow evening, I'll be V/LA until either Monday or Tuesday evening.

Stagging my friend Nick in a tepee.

You started this game here and had posted 26 times before a hammer was dropped, we had 2 serious wagons and you didn't once feel compelled to vote anyone?

I made it quite clear, at the time and since, that I did feel compelled to vote Acronach. You have a habit of simplifying things in your head when you're going after a target. The reason I postponed voting, as you well know, is that I didn't want the day to end until I'd collected at least some information from every player.

Scott (Koolzy) and Tommy have not done any scum hunting this entire game and have relied on PoE or gut reads for their votes.

Utter balls. In day 1, I was a driving force behind the Acronach wagon. I was the one who noticed the tell-tale use of the word 'bus'. Shame it was a mislynch in the end, but there we are. I also hounded the lurkers to get something out of them. I think it's important to stop people getting all the way to night 1 without committing to any opinions. I've had a lot of flak for the way I did this (withholding my vote), but I think it was a pro-town activity. In day 2, I nailed scum with my first post and argued consistently against Llamarble until he swung. At one point I was the only one left voting for him, so I switched my vote to Ivan, but even during that period I made it clear that Llamarble was still my preferred lynch. As soon as Scott arrived and voted Llamarble, I hopped back on. I didn't let up the pressure from then until we got him. It's absurd to say I've done no scum-hunting.

anyone want a good reason to pressure tommy, read MT's post 868 Chapter 1 in the appropriately titled WHY TOMMY IS SCUM.

I don't think you can argue with anything said in that post

I think you can. In fact I did, in post 883.

Tommy is being scummy

Got a case there, Whiskers? Also ICEninja. What is it about my play today that strikes you as scummy?

[Tommy]

Tommy: Nope, I don't have a case. I might have at the time I posted that, but I don't remember it.

So you no longer think I'm scummy?

[Tommy]

Tommy is our best lynch for today, I'm sorry but lynching somebody based on the fact that they were voting their top scum suspect, who happened to be town, is piss poor logic.

What are you talking about? I've never lynched anyone for that, nor do I plan to.

Ice/Tommy/Scott seem set on lynching me without the possibility of anyone else.

This isn't true. I'd also accept a lynch of Scott or ICEninja.

Tommy has still not been able to make a case

I have made a case - you just don't like it. Process of elimination leaves you, Scott and ICEninja, of whom you are marginally the scummiest because of the way your attitude to Llamarble changed during your fight with subgenius. That's my case.

[Tommy]

Tommy, that's why you, ice, and Scott are voting me, cause I was on the Sub wagon.

No it isn't!

And did you miss where I said the ONLY reason I was voting marble was to force him to actually make a case

I didn't miss it, but it's irrelevant to my suspicion about you.

I'm not sure how to make it more clear. Maybe the best way is to link back to my post 1192, which quotes the bits I find suspicious, and requote the first paragraph of post 1206, which explains why:

Either "You can't learn much from a hammer" or "that hammer makes him look bad", but not both. Either Llamarble looked scummy as a result of it ("is marble scummy? yes") or he didn't ("that hammer made NO SENSE as scum"), but not both.

But let's not keep going back and forth: I haven't quoted this because I want you to answer it again. I think you've already answered it as best you can.

You want an unexplained read? Let's go to Tommy for his unexplained scumread on me that he keeps throwing around.

Gordon Bennett, not you and all. I have a town-read on you, Scott. I'm having to choose a lynch-candidate from a list of three town-reads.

[Tommy]

Tommy was the 2nd scummiest player of day 2, using his own "lynch by numbers" thing he used to get us to lynch marble

A lot of the preferences that made up that score came from assumptions that Llamarble was town and subgenius was scum. For example:

Vote: Llamarble

If he turns up town, then Sub/Tommy need instant death. If he's scum… then I need to look over my reads again.

[Tommy]

Strongest read right now is ICEninja.

Now that you've dropped your shit-player persona to reveal the strategic mastermind beneath, presumably you'll want to share some reasons for this.

[Tommy]

Tommy is floating through this game and has ignored questions and forced people to repeat them.

When did I do that?

[Tommy]

ISO analysis of Da Koolzzy/Scott Brosius. All post numbers are ISO.

Da Koolzzy 1: Initial reads. Probtown read on Beck tempered by some criticism. Distancing? Null read on ICEninja. Diagnoses Llamarble as a lurker and suggests he might be a third party. Hmm. Main scum read is Acronach, which seems fair.

2: Votes Spoon for answering someone else's question. Bizarre over-reaction.

5: Attempts to hammer YankCane following the mason claim. Bad move. But his reasoning is fairly solid, and it wasn't generally realised until ICEninja pointed it out later that the correct town reaction to the claim was to give YankCane a pass for the day.

7: "I AM willing to lynch" for answering other people's questions. Awful.

10: Mild suspicion of Greymarble and jilynne. Fine.

11: Backsliding on the policy lynch. Yuck.

Scott Brosius 1: Pre-read plan to vote from the intersection of the YankCane wagon, the Acronach wagon and the non-mason list. Fair enough.

2: Town reads on ICEninja and Beck; vote for Llamarble because his defence of the hammer was unconvincing. Good play.

4 and 5: Points out flaws in Beck's argument. Also helpful.

7: Decent analysis of the Beck/subgenius fight.

8: Rightly worried about the subgenius wagon.

10: First post of day 3. Suspects Ivan and Beck for their attempt to derail the Llamarble wagon. Quite right. Votes Beck.

13-16: Trying to convince Beck that Magic Trainer is essentially cleared. SB's argument is correct.

18: Case on Beck. Possible misrep of me.

20: Attacks Beck. Second possible misrep of me.

Summary: As I've said before, Da Koolzzy's vote on Spoon, coupled with his subsequent retreat, was suspicious. Scott's play since has been largely pro-town, though I'm awaiting his answer to my most recent question with interest.

[Tommy]

I just showed why MT isn't cleared do that's flawed

I don't think you did show that. Let's have a look at your reasoning:

MT as scum had 2 choices, keep the votes the same and force a no-lynch, which would have drawn him some criticism day 3 because people would be asking why he let a NL happen instead of just changing his vote

This isn't true. Here's the position before Magic Trainer's vote change.

Subgenius (5)- Ivan the Pleasant, Llamarble, Beck, Captain Spoon, Magic Trainer
Giitah (1)- rblinker123, 
Llamarble (5) - Scott Brosius, Tommy, ICEninja, Subgenius, Giitah

Six votes are needed for a lynch. Note that every single player can avoid a no-lynch by changing their vote and hammering. If we had no-lynched, Magic Trainer would have had to accept an eleventh of the blame. With two minutes to go, it's fairly clear that every player except Magic Trainer had accepted a no lynch. Including me. Including you, Beck. Magic Trainer nailed scum with an unprovoked, unpressured hammer. He's as close to cleared as it gets.

[Tommy]

Neutral.

[Tommy]

Still on a campsite in Sussex, but I can give you a claim and an answer to the ConfidAnon confusion.

I'm vanilla.

There had been a slight scum-tell in Confid's play early on, but by the time he was replaced my read was neutral.

[Tommy]

Scott, you accused me of ignoring questions and forcing people to repeat them. When did I do this? Ironically, this is the second time I've had to ask you that.

Against the accusation that I lied about my ConfidAnon read, I'll say this: ConfidAnon was replaced almost a week after I last criticised him. During that time I lost interest in what had always been a relatively mild tell. If you don't believe me, there's little I can do about that, but I think you'll agree that the evidence against me is a bit thin.

Analysis of ICEninja (all post numbers are ISO):

0: Votes YankCane with decent reasoning.

1: Refuses to answer a question from subgenius on the ground that it would be too much effort, which is poor, but also catches the beginning of SleepyKrew's defence of Acronach, which is good.

3: Good exploration of the Acronach/SleepyKrew relationship.

5 and 6: Supports subgenius's move to give YankCane a day-pass following the mason claim. Good play.

8, 12, 14, 15, 16: ICEninja is playing well during this period. Most of his energy is going into attacking Acronach and protecting the claimed mason from Beck.

18: A bit quick to forgive Greymarble for the scumminess of his hammer.

20: Suspicious of Da Koolzzy. Could be distancing, I suppose, but the reasoning is good: Da Koolzzy wasn't engaging with the game.

25: Votes Da Koolzzy and names jilynne as his second choice.

29: Possible attempt to smear jilynne by confusing Monday 11th July with Monday 18th July. Could be an honest mistake though.

34: Joins the Llamarble wagon, somewhat out of the blue. This is a little suspect.

35 and 36: Attacks Beck for defending Llamarble as 'too scummy to be scum'. Good play.

38: Good pressure on Giitah.

40-42: Laudable effort to cure the town's indecision at the end of day 2.

44: First post of day 3. Rightly calls for third mason to claim. Votes Beck for having been on the subgenius wagon at the end of day 2. ICEninja assumes that Llamarble wouldn't have been bussed by both buddies, which I think isn't super-safe.

48: Claims he forgot about the non-mason list while reading YankCane's ISO. Odd, because the list is part of that ISO. Can't see how lying about this would benefit him as scum, though.

The rest is largely explanation of his own position in answer to other players: he wants to kill Beck or me, preferably Beck.

Summary: largely pro-town play, with the odd poor moment. Nothing to lynch him for; nothing much to link him to Beck or Scott.

[Tommy]

Tommy, your ISO analysis is excellent. I'd like it if you'd do my slot

Sorry Whiskers. You're confirmed.

You want an unexplained read? Let's go to Tommy for his unexplained scumread on me that he keeps throwing around.

You keep throwing this around without backing it up.

Where? Please point to examples.

I remember scanning D1 and someone else having the same complaint.

Prove this or retract it.

And now you randomly ISO ICE who I don't even recall you having suspicion on.

I announced in post 1246 that I intended to write an ISO analysis of you and ICEninja, to assuage Beck's concerns that I wasn't looking deeply enough into your and his play. I've now done that.

Tommy is floating through this game and has ignored questions and forced people to repeat them.

For the third time of asking: when did I do that?

[Tommy]

Gotta do an ISO on Scott if you wanna not be the lynch.

Was that addressed to me? If so, I've already done an ISO analysis of Scott.

[Tommy]

No, I'm at L-1.

[Tommy]

I think I've said everything I need to. I was going to do an ISO on Beck as well, just for completeness, but you guys can do that on day 4 instead if you think it would be useful.

[Tommy]

Well played, Scott.

Llamarble, I felt that I couldn't hammer subgenius after publicly refusing to join the wagon and announcing that he was the most pro-town player. Maybe I should have done it anyway and argued that a mislynch is preferable to no lynch.