Mini 1231: 8p Swift (Game Over)

[Yosarian2]

Vote:Epsilon_Andrew

[Yosarian2]

Confirm Yos vote.

unvote

SleepyKrew

[Yosarian2]

Trying to push a mislynch already, Yos?

SleepyKrew first attacked you for "either bussing or being oppertunistic" because you put the second vote on me as a random vote. Silly, but fine, whatever, not a bad early-game poke. It's really odd, though, that he kept his vote on me while doing so; if he thought you might have a scum looking for an oppertunistic lynch in the random phase, why would he help you do it? And then, I came in and random voted, and he said "confirm Yos vote", as if me random voting someone who hadn't posted yet was some kind of tell or something.

SleepyKrew is probably scum here. It looks like he's trying to mislynch me while trying to make you look bad for it. There's really no other explanation for his actions here; if he actually thought that, to use his words, you might be bussing or might be being opportunistic scum, he should be voting for you, and not me, since I'm only scum in one of those scenarios and you're scum in both.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, that's really contrived, taking into account SleepyKrew's general tendency to make half-assed decisions based on immediate impulses, as well as the fact that the game is in a very early phase wherein such silly decisionmaking processes haven't been overridden by the necessity for rational thought.

(shrug) I've never played with SleepyKrew before. That being said, his behavior seems incredibly scummy here, he's making what he wants us to believe is a serious attack on one person while keeping his vote on the guy that person is voting.

Scum probably only need 2 mislynches to win here. If he can chain mislynches, by mislynching me and making CTD look bad in the process, he probably wins.

Really, I think you're looking for excuses to hop off your initial wagon--even though between your first and second post your original target had made a post that would've given you a very good reason indeed to stay. Sort of like you were making a statement with that first vote--a statement of "hey look I'm not afraid to vote this guy we must not be connected".

Heh. That's pretty contrived. I usually like to random vote someone who hasn't posted yet, all else being equal, since posting is inherently a pro-town action IMHO. His response did seem a little nervous about a reasonless random vote, but that's quite common for newbies.

Also, I wanted to wait and see what SK was going to do, since he was claiming he had a serious suspicion. His response to a random vote was actually to "confirm vote" his random vote on me, even though it was the opposite of his initial suspicious?

I purposely did not vote CES with my accusations. It was to see who would first notice that I called him scum but did not vote. You swoop in and vote Epsilon, completely ignoring my little "slip". Then when I confirm my vote, you decide to build a "case" on me. There is no town motivation for ignoring the "slip" at first. Add on to that that we were in RVS (which I now believe over) and you're really grasping at straws. What was the reasoning behind the Epsilon vote anyway?

Do you really think that I was "ignoring" the fact that your vote on me while you were attacking the guy who put the second vote for me? I didn't call you on it right away, but of course I was paying attention to it; in a game this small, you think I'm going to ignore someone voting for me?

I was curious to see what you would do. There were other possible explanations for your action; perhaps you didn't move your random vote right away because you weren't that serious about your attack, or perhaps you were really stuck on that silly "bussing" theory for whatever reason. But the "confirm vote" thing shot both of those out the window, and you pulling the " I was just doing something scummy to see who called me on it defense" just makes me want to lynch you more.

[Yosarian2]

Why would I not be serious with my attack? I clarified that it was 100% serious. And still is.

If you were serious in your attack, and town, you would have been voting CES, not the person you thought CES was trying to "opportunistically lynch".

I'm guaranteeing 1 scum in Korts/CES/Yos, will try to narrow down.

Lol, yet another scummy thing for you to say. You're making this too easy.

I'm guaranteeing 1 scum in SleepyKrew/SleepyKrew/SleepyKrew.

[Yosarian2]

No, Yos screwed up his vote.

Huh. You are correct.

Vote:SleepyKrew

Anyway, korts is obviously right about theory here; there is no "random voting stage" where you can do whatever you want and no one can call you scum. The fact that newbie scum like SK think there is is one reason that they're so easy to catch early in the game.

[Yosarian2]

I did not say that you can't be held accountable in RVS.
I simply said that RVS exists.

It really doesn't; random voting is a fine tactic in some situations, but there's no stage when everyone has to random vote, or when people can only random vote, or whatever, and there's no point when that stage suddenly ends. The whole "random voting is over, you can drop your random votes" thing would make random voting completely pointless.

[Yosarian2]

This all seems pretty thin; it's fairly obvious what CES was trying to say, he was trying to say that my play looked like I was going for an easy mislynch. You can accuse someone of that without actually knowing what the alignment of the person he's attacking is.

[Yosarian2]

Just to make sure everyone knows, SK is currently at lynch -1.

[Yosarian2]

I really don't get why SK isn't even trying to defend himself here. I mean, people vote for you, and your response is to refuse to answer their questions?

What's really bizzare here is that with SK at lynch -1, and EA defending him, his response is to shoot down EA's defense of him as illogical. That's a really weird thing for him to do. That being said, while it's crazy in any case, it strikes me as something a townie might be more likely to do; I don't really think a scum about to get lynched pointing out the logical flaws in a DEFENSE of himself made by someone else.

I'm going to provisionally

unvote:sleepykrew

, but I'm honestly kind of unhappy doing it. SK, I still want to see you defend yourself, and I want to see you explain your vote for Beck and, even more importantly, I want to know why you blankly refused to explain your vote right after you made it.

I am getting cold feet about the wagon so I don't want you to be at lynch -1 right now, but I also still can't get a real read on you while you're not making sense, SK, and if I'm still not able to get a read on you by the end of the day, I'll probably lynch you just to be sure. So I'd suggest that, if you want to live, you calm down, take a deep breath, and start making sense and explaining your weird actions. If you don't, then I'll just assume you don't want to live and move my vote back to you.

(To sum up: I don't want SK at lynch -1 right now, because he might actually be town, but I am demanding that he play better or die.)

[Yosarian2]

Sigh. I have to go to a funeral up in upstate new york, and am going to be V/LA until probably Sunday. This has not been a good week.

Unlikely to have any internet access before then. I would really rather not be replaced, if at all possible, and I've never been replaced from a game the entire time I've been on the site, but obviously some things have to come first before mafia.

Since a deadline is coming up, I'm going to make sure to leave my vote on someone who I think is fairly likely to be scum at the moment in the hopes that it will be helpful to the town in getting a lynch.

Vote:Epsilon_Andrew

[Yosarian2]

I am back. Will catch up ASAP

[Yosarian2]

Ok.

I agree with the idea of a no-lynch. That's probably mathematically right in this situation, especially with a vig dead (if we had a living vig, we wouldn't want to no lynch, we'd want to lynch and shoot, ect). However, with 6 people left and probably 2 scum, we should make sure that we don't have any info roles with information they want to claim before the end of the day; it would really suck if a cop didn't get to claim a guilty because we quick-hammered no-lynch.

Going to wait for everyone to check in before I cast a vote.

[Yosarian2]

:twiddles thumbs:

[Yosarian2]

I would rather use the full time we are allotted, to discuss and look at potential candidates, before going with a no-lynch.

This is generally unwise. If we all say our suspects and then no-lynch, then it just helps the scum figure out who to kill.

[Yosarian2]

Ok, we've heard from everyone.

Vote:No lynch

[Yosarian2]

Yes, it would be good to know what the rules are for a repeated no lynch/no kill situation. Does the game go "happily ever after" at some point, or what?

[Yosarian2]

Heh. Well, considering what the odds of the town winning here are, mathematically speaking, something like 8% with random lynches (2/6*1/4=.08333), I'd actually consider taking a draw here instead of betting on an inside straight. It would kind of make this whole game seem like a pointless waste of time, but hey, at least it'll piss off the scum and, next time we run this setup, the scum will think twice before no-killing when they're ahead.

That being said, before we think about resorting to that, we should probably do a mass-claim; and if anyone has a suspect that they're really confident is scum, I want to hear it. If we have information that could help us lynch right today, it improves the odds a little. Just be prepared for scum to gambit if we mass-claim; I guarantee you, the scum will NOT want to let us no-lynch.

[Yosarian2]

usually you want the person who's been under the most suspicion to claim first, and then popcorn. Of the living people...I'd say either SK or CES have been under the most suspicion this game. My vote would be for SK to claim first.

Before we start, does anyone have a problem with a mass claim todaY?

[Yosarian2]

Let's not discuss what setups are plausable and what are not until after we've had the mass claim, ok?

So, I guess SK is going first, we all agreed on that?

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, popcorn is more informative.

[Yosarian2]

Vanilla townie.

[Yosarian2]

That's everyone? Huh. That was less useful then I was expecting.

[Yosarian2]

I'm assuming last night's NK was due to my passive ability. Since my claim has made the ability useless, next night will definitely have a kill; so at 4:2 our best chance still seems to be a No Lynch...

If we no-lynch today, it's an automatic draw, scum will not get another chance to kill.

Happily ever after takes effect after 3 consecutive phases (in this case, if you no lynch today it will be a tie).

For the record, I believe the bulletproof claim; honestly, "bulletproof + 1 shot vig" still doesn't seem like really enough power for the setup, it's less then the average town power in 9 player newbie games and those are already scum sided. The idea that there would be just a 1 shot vig is really unlikely.

I was actually kind of hoping I could get the scum to fake-claim something interesting, or counter-claim something, or do some kind of interesting gambit to prevent a draw. Looks like they didn't go for it. Wimps.

[Yosarian2]

He's already said he wants to NL. Don't answer for him.

And obviously the scum have no competitive spirit either.

There's no rush. We do have 3 days left before deadline. Also, I didn't actually say i wanted to no-lynch; I said I would consider it.

I probably will end up voting no-lynch, but hey, if we can actually figure out who a scum is today and lynch him, that would be great.

I really have no idea why CES is calling me scum here. Do you have an actual case?

[Yosarian2]

I could go for a Beck lynch--his play's been very erratic.

You are scum.

But unless you want to confess, we will be no-lynching today.

Really, dude, Korts is confirmed town. The fact that Korts is town is pretty much the only solid fact we have at the moment.

My guess right now is that the 2 scum are probably in the group of (Beck, CES, Ironhead).

[Yosarian2]

Meh. The big problem here for me is that CES is acting more like I'd expect scum to act in this situation then Beck. Beck went right for the no-lynch, which seems really odd as scum.

[Yosarian2]

Meh. The big problem here for me is that CES is acting more like I'd expect scum to act in this situation then Beck. Beck went right for the no-lynch, which seems really odd as scum.

I don't think it's odd that scum would be hesitant to brazenly push for that which they want.

I wouldn't expect them to quickly agree with, and vote for, a no-lynch, either. Not when it was so likely to happen in any case.

Half the reason I made that post was to scare the scum into reacting by threatening them with a draw.

[Yosarian2]

Asking that question is stupid because if I have any sense I'll answer "no limitations" anyway--if I'm a one-shot thing and I reveal that, I'll be promptly killed, and being semi-confirmed that would suck.

Actually, I doubt the scum tried to kill at all last night. If they had tried and failed, we probably wouldn't be facing a draw by NLing today the way the mod is telling us we are.

[Yosarian2]

But then Korts would be mod-confirmed. I doubt Batt dub goofed.

...What?

If the scum INTENTIONALLY no-killed, how does that confirm Korts as town?

[Yosarian2]

Yeah so, mod slipped which means maf NK'd and korts is prob scum.

...what? Korts is mostly confirmed town by the setup, no matter if the scum tried to kill him or not.

All right, let's think about this situation logically:

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 4

No Lynch

-2- Ironhead, SleepyKrew

Beck

-2- Cogito Ergo Sum, Korts

Cogito Ergo Sum

-1- Beck

Players not voting:

Yosarian2

SK has promised to hammer if someone else votes Beck, and we're in lynch or lose. And yet, no one has taken him up on the offer. Also, I'm going to assume Korts is confirmed town here, which eliminates a bunch more possibilities. So:

If Beck is town, the scum group logically has to be CES + SleepyKrew, or else Beck would be dead by now.

If Beck is scum, he is probably scum with Ironhead; bussing is possible, I guess, but I tend to doubt it in lynch or lose. I really don't believe Beck and CES could be scum together here.

So I'm thinking that the scum group is either CES+SK or Beck+Ironhead.

(thinks) I'm trying to decide how likely a CES+Sk scum group would be. Those day 1 interactions were really odd, especally the way SK was calling CES scum but refusing to vote for him, and CES kind of jumped in to defend SK from an early page-1 vote. I don't know about SK, but I don't know if CES would be that obvious as to defend a scumbuddy from a page 1 vote?

[Yosarian2]

Looking at early page one stuff, like this:

We're out of RVS Beck. If your vote on me is serious now, please state why.

I realize we are out of rvs, I was waiting for an answer from CES, while I thought the joke was funny, I don't think it answers my question.

vote: Cogito

I think Beck is scummier then CES. (Also, if we're down to a coinflip here, where it's either Beck+Iron or CES+SK, then that's high enough odds that I'm not interested in a no-lynch anymore).

Vote:Beck

The possibility of CES being scum makes me really nervous here, my gut really doesn't trust him,, but beck being scum just seems more likely to me then a CES+SK scum team.

[Yosarian2]

IronHead: Why are you still talking about a no-lynch? If you're right and Beck is town, then the scumteam has to be CES+SK, so you should be trying to convince us to lynch them and win.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah so, mod slipped which means maf NK'd and korts is prob scum.

SK has promised to hammer if someone else votes Beck, and we're in lynch or lose. And yet, no one has taken him up on the offer. Also, I'm going to assume Korts is confirmed town here, which eliminates a bunch more possibilities.

1. We're in MYLO, not LYLO!

That dosn't change my point; we're in a lynch wrong and scum wins situation. If Beck was town, then scum would have lynched him and won, unless scum was in the group of (CES, Korts, SK) (the 2 people voting for him already, and the person who promised to join). Korts must be town, for balance reasons, so if Beck is town, the scum group must be CES+SK.

The way you're arguing over irrelevant trivialities (IN ALL CAPS) while ignoring the logical points looks like you're a desperate scum, IMHO.

2. Your definition of "confirmed" is pretty loose -- it is contingent upon an assumption of game balance. At most, I would say Korts is prob-town (because it is based on an assumption); but as we've observed, he definitely wasn't the cause of last night's no-kill, and town BPs are rare -- especially when a vig is present. Much more likely that he is a scum-BP who knew he could claim BP since it is nominally true.

Do you really think a 8 player game with a 1 shot vig and no other power role could possibly be at all balanced? And the idea of adding in a scum-BP to that setup is even more absurd; are you really suggesting that the only town power is a 1 shot vig, and that half of the scum team is bulletproof?

P-Edit: I hate playing with idiots. Yosarian, pull your head out of your ass before signing up for another game.

Lol. Now he's resorting to insults. Ok, the scum team is Beck-Ironhead. Thank you for making me feel much more confident in my decision here.

[Yosarian2]

I think town was far superior to scum in this game -- but we were saddled with morons like EA and Yos. Tough to win when your own team stupidly fumbles the game away to the opposition.

Oh man, you're so town.

Beck is proven scum barring shenanigans. Yos2 is tomorrow's lynch.

Um, what?

If you're seriously going to tunnel on me tommorow no matter what, instead of lynching Ironhead, Beck's obvious scumbuddy, then that means town can't win, even if we lynch Beck and he flips scum. We can't lynch scum tommorow without all 3 townies on board.

If you're really going to be like this, then I'm out.

Unvote

Vote:No-Lynch

I'd rather draw then have a guarenteed town loss due to tunneling.

[Yosarian2]

(sigh) Yes, yes he is. I didn't see that SK has already voted.

Oh well, then assuming Beck flips scum, I guess it's up to you now, CES. If you're really going to tunnel on me tommorow for no reason and be an idiot, then town loses.

[Yosarian2]

I'm just making sure Yosscum doesn't get an easy win by nightkilling me.

(shrug) If I was scum, I'd kill you anyway. Of course, Ironhead is the last scum, and you just called him town, so he will probably leave you alive.

[Yosarian2]

Huh? No, I don't think you're scum. If you were scum, you probably wouldn't have bussed in 6 player MYLO like that; there would be no reason for you to do so.

Ironhead is fairly obviously scum here, he spent the whole day yesterday trying to protect Beck from being lynched and defending him. Take a look at his posts just on this page alone; he really pulled out all the stops, up to and including calling me an "idiot" for voting Beck. (Yeah, that was the hammer, but it sounded like he didn't realize it at the time; considering I didn't either, that's not surprising.)

And, as predicted, he left you alive in the hopes that you'd vote me like you promised to do yesterday. Obvious scum move is obvious.

A no-lynch is tempting, but only if we could actually get the scum to kill tonight. We probably can't, unless we can credibly threatening to draw tommorow if the scum dosn't kill. So, let's just win the game today.

Vote:Ironhead

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) He may have by post 312. So look at his posting for the rest of the day.

[Yosarian2]

So, wait...what was the setup really? Was one of the VT's lying?

Vengeful and vig together would unbalance the setup in favor of the town.

No, not at all. 8 player with a 1 shot vig is theoretically the same as 9 player vanilla, if the vig gets his shot off, except that there's one townie with a safe claim. 9 player vanilla with 2 scum is horribly unbalanced in favor of scum; 11 player vanilla with 2 scum is still very unbalanced in favor of the scum.

[Yosarian2]

Actually, what really cost us, even more then the vig self-destructing, was the setup. We assumed this would be a somewhat balanced setup, which would honestly have probably meant adding a cop or something. The fact that we assumed it would be balanced, and it wasn't, screwed us over when a scum claimed a power role.

Honestly, we really had basically no chance of winning, especially by day 2; I should have just taken the draw on day 2 when I had the chance.

[Yosarian2]

Unlimited bp is totally not balanced anyway in a small setup.

Sure, it is. At least, so long as the mod is using the "mafia wins when they have 50% of the remaining" rule.

Frankly, even with a vig and a BP, the game still would have been incredibly tilted against the town. A BP doesn't really add all that much to the town, just a safe-claim and a small chance of preventing one kill.

[Yosarian2]

I went with what the normal review group suggested, so it should be balanced (though you may disagree with what they said).

Yeah...9 player vanilla is incredibly unbalanced, which is what this basically was. I would guess if you ran this setup as an open setup 10 times, town might win 2 of them at best. And of course, running it closed is even worse.

I'm not trying to sound too critical here; you did a very good job modding the game, and thank you for running it. But, just for a reference, this is the current newbie setup:

1 Mafia Goon
1 Mafia Role Cop
5 Vanilla Townies
2 of the following (no duplicates possible): (Cop 25%, Doctor 25%, Jailkeeper 25%, Vanilla Townie 25%)

2 strong power roles in a 9 player game is closer to balanced (I think scum still win more of those then town, though). 1 weak one-shot vig role in an 8 player game really isn't a scenerio where the town has much of a chance.

The fact that you tried to outguess myself on the setup rather than scumhunting after the mass claim was a bad strategy, though the setup was scum tilted (but swing could potentionally make it town favored if the vig hit correctly).

(shrug) We had to outguess the mod and make our best guess in order to have any shot at all here. We frankly didn't really have much info we could scumhunt with, considering how day 1 ended. Of course outguessing the mod was risky, but not outguessing the mod would have been much more risky.

I'm actually guessing that Korts fake-claimed because he knew that if he didn't, we would not have had enough information to even have a reasonable shot, and we would have just gone happily ever after. That was quite a good fake-claim on his part; not that it helped avoid a town win, but it probably prevented a draw.

[Yosarian2]

Well, you can never know that for sure, SK. (shrug) Only real way to tell is if you play a number of games with Beck and see if you lynch him more often when he's scum then when he's town. That being said, when you're right, be happy about it.

I do think that whatever you were doing at the start of the game was basically a bad idea. Playing badly in the hopes that someone will notice and attack you for it, in the hopes that somehow this will find you scum, is a gambit that gets tried all the time by newer players, but it never really works, it usually just gets you lynched.

Later in the game, though, your play did get a lot better. You voted scum and, even more important, you didn't continue to tunnel on your initial suspect all game (since your initial suspect was me, if you had done that and kept tunneling on me, we probably would have lost on day 2.) Good townies change their opinion based on new evidence and don't get all emotionally locked in to proving they were right, and you did that.

[Yosarian2]

I followed this game because I was a fan of a small game.

I thought korts may have screwed up by claiming bulletproof towney. When Batt declared that happily ever after would occur after a cycle of no lynch no kill and no lynch, He implied that the scum had no killed for whatever reason. Kort claiming bullet proof towney could have invalidated this (as he could have absorbed a kill), as certainly the game wouldn't enter happily ever after if scum shot and tried to kill a BP. So, from a town perspective, Batt was either going to end the game prematurely no lynch, attempted kill on BP, no lynch (which), which was quite possible, or there was no BP. Instead of Batt slipping and forgetting an 'integral part of his setup', the obvious conclusion was that Korts had fakeclaimed.

Anyone else follow?

Some mods simply have a rule that a game ends in a tie after X no-lynch/no kill cycles, no matter what the cause of it is. (shrug)

I do think "3 phases=tie" is a little harsh; 2 full days at least is probably better.

[Yosarian2]

The town EV was at minimum 1/3, based on a D1 massclaim or massclaim of confirmable roles. For an 8 player game, and assuming this isn't ideal play, that should be within tolerance. Though making the game open would have been better.

Repeated examples have shown that in reality, with a 10:2 mountainous game where scum has a night-kill, the actual town win rate is much lower then the 35% you would expect if you looked at the EV. This game is probably worse then that for town, and would be even if it was an open setup.