Mini 1439 -- Game Over

[penguin_alien]

UNVOTE: bacde

I'm not seeing scum in Fegelein or bacde. Om of the Nom has come in as town.

Secret Agent Sloth feels pro-town. First read-through has Mrbump seeming scummy, and RadiantCowbells is worse. Not sure about the chillkid push.

[penguin_alien]

Om of the Nom, what's your top reason for MrBump being likely scum?

[penguin_alien]

Om of the Nom reads town to me here not so much for activity level but for what he's contributing. He's making cases rather than spamming in my estimation. qwints seems more confrontational here than when he's been scum, IIRC.

Bacde, I don't know that I follow how you got from:

I'm a big fan of Om this game

@Fegel, who is your second-to-top scumspect? Because that is who you should be chasing down, since I'm town

to:

As bad as Om looks right now

I don't think that "Yeah, someone who self-metas as town would TOTALLY do it as scum to trick us" is a good reason to think Om is scum, since, ya know, Om also does that as town

I bet Om does it as scum though

@Om can you link us to some games where you self-metad as scum please?

[penguin_alien]

I'm not loving any of my reads right now. Radiant Cowbells is moving towards the town end of the spectrum, MrBump isn't strong enough to want to lynch. The fegelein wagon isn't persuading me, but it does have some town reads on it at least.

Cheery Dog, does fegelein giving his reasons on his list change your mind on him? Because with all the time you spent on him early in the game, I would have expected to see a more...complete case on him for your vote.

[penguin_alien]

I realize it's probably too late, but given Cheery Dog's way of driving a Fegelein lynch with a weak case that doesn't change with new information, I prefer a Cheery Dog lynch to a Fegelein one.

VOTE: Cheery Dog

[penguin_alien]

I realize it's probably too late

, but given Cheery Dog's way of driving a Fegelein lynch with a weak case that doesn't change with new information, I prefer a Cheery Dog lynch to a Fegelein one.

VOTE: Cheery Dog

This person wants a no lynch right now. Seriously wants a no lynch. Even admits to it with the bolded.

Penguin has a very high chance of being scum. He basically came out and aid he was voting for a lost cause. But to be fair to penguin he did actually say that feg wasn't scum in his first post in game. Maybe he could have voted in time... who knows.

My 'too late' comment was me feeling like I hadn't gotten my suspicions together soon enough. It's all so much hot air now, but I can say I was at least able to make an unvote/vote post if we'd been in a no-lynch position and Fegelein was the only option for getting info. I wouldn't have liked it, but expect for under some MyLo circumstances I never favor a no-lynch over an unknown lynch. Saying that I was willing to hop on the Fegelein wagon out of necessity at deadline would have been saying that I didn't care if Cheery Dog was lynched, which wasn't the case. Since people were saying they'd go with whichever wagon had more support, adding my voice to that crowd would have only helped us stand around shuffling our feet until deadline.

Om of the Nom, what do you think of the YOLO slot as evilpacman18 throwing on a superfluous vote at the end? Mafia WIFOM knowing it was a town lynch, or town not paying attention? I've seen it be a town tell elsewhere, but that was from a less experienced player.

Red Dragon, I like the Zitfe the best of your wagon analysis. Fegelein is coming out today with a lot of lousy statements, and I can see where a Bacde nightkill lets him make a clean sweep of his reads for today. I haven't had time to reread with Bacde's flip in mind (or even with Cheery Dog's, actually) so I have to hold off voting for now.

[penguin_alien]

I'm really finding it difficult to juggle 6 games, host 1, and do my A-Levels atm, so I may request a sub-out.

mhhhmmm

@penguine, fair. It would be unfair to say that you couldn't have changed your vote becuase you never needed to. Personally, I think we need to lynch feg. Lynching feg gives us sooo much information at this point as well as gives us some pretty powerful association tells.

Well, I don't object to being grilled, given that I didn't have a read I felt confident voting until near deadline.

I agree that fegelein's flip would be illuminating, but we likely only have three mislynches. We also have two flips we didn't have when discussion was going on yesterday. I'd rather lynch as a result of scum-hunting and cases.

[penguin_alien]

I don't agree with that. Town should use all relevant information that they can. Flips are some of the few things in mafia that are 100% guaranteed, to not use them is foolish in my opinion. With that said, we have plenty of time to discuss, and I, unlike some, am not 100% set in stone about any particular course of action. I also think that before we lynch anyone everyone (specifically people like you and evil pacman) needs to post and discuss more before d2 ends so we have something going forward.

step 1) lynch feg.

actually I think we need to talk more. But at the end of the day I really don't see any alternative.

Which is it? And in terms of flips being useful, yes, that's true, but as long as we lynch we get a flip, we aren't losing out on that.

Radiant Cowbells, why wouldn't you be allowed to explain your opinion?

And in reading Fegelein's ISO, I'm not seeing what's so scummy that he must be lynched. Anyone have an up-to-date argument?

[penguin_alien]

I don't agree with that. Town should use all relevant information that they can. Flips are some of the few things in mafia that are 100% guaranteed, to not use them is foolish in my opinion. With that said, we have plenty of time to discuss, and I, unlike some, am not 100% set in stone about any particular course of action. I also think that before we lynch anyone everyone (specifically people like you and evil pacman) needs to post and discuss more before d2 ends so we have something going forward.

step 1) lynch feg.

actually I think we need to talk more. But at the end of the day I really don't see any alternative.

Which is it?

The reversal in intention in the span of six posts still doesn't make sense to me. And aside from fegelein-Mathdino being the other wagon from Day one, why are people interested in lynching him? Because in reading back through the reasons for lynching him, nothing stands out.

The people on the wagon at its peak were:
Cheery dog
Bacde
don_johnson
Om of the nom
Red dragon

In reverse order, Red dragon, you said it was the wagon you hated least that was likely to go through.
Om and don_johnson gave no reasons that I can find.
Cheery dog was upset fegelein posted a list of reads without reasons.
Bacde also didn't like the reads list, partly due to what he saw as a half-assed read on Zfite.

Obviously the last two were town. In considering this, I wouldn't be surprised to find scum on that wagon, likely as don_johnson or Red Dragon.

Again, does anyone have a reason beyond 'lots of connections' to lynch fegelein-Mathdino?

[penguin_alien]

Mathdino, any thoughts about being at L-1?

Radiant Cowbells, why no answer on the ambiguous statement about not wanting a Fegelein lynch?

VOTE: Radiant Cowbells

[penguin_alien]

I am not allowed to say why yet.

Your word choice here belies that.

[penguin_alien]

That makes sense, although if there's anything you can point out without violating site rules, that would be useful.

UNVOTE: Radiant Cowbells

[penguin_alien]

Hurro.

My case for Town!Fegelein was based on my experience with his town meta in 1350.

I also may or may not have had a hand in the death of Secret Agent Sloth. Heh heh heh.

Vote: Penguin_Alien

Elaborate?

don_johnson, Red Dragon, evilpacman18, MrBump, and Ztife: you got your single-minded lynch. Now enlighten the rest of us, since that should have cracked the game wide open for you.

Red Dragon, none of this 'oh, go ahead and lynch me' stuff. If you're town that should be the last thing on your mind, especially with SAS flipping scum. It's a new day, after all.

[penguin_alien]

So you have no interest in figuring out that I'm town or considering that your read might change over the course of the day. Right, nice pro-town play. Are you a vig or SK?

[penguin_alien]

13P having three scum and a kill role elsewhere seems unlikely to me. Radiant's play kinda shouts SK, though.

RD's reaction was so bad holy crap.

Single-minded lynch, penguin, gotcha. I explained my logic all day yesterday anyway. We couldn't have a replacement in that slot. I wanna say this makes Om Scum look likely, as he was pushing Feg hard and somewhat distanced himself from SAS, but I'm not sure. Bacde/Feg still reads Town vs Town, so I don't have much more to say about that.

Having trouble getting energy for this game all of a sudden. Not really sure why.

...Om of the Nom was killed overnight and flipped town. Bacde flipped town the previous night. Yes, Red Dragon's reaction is pretty lousy.

Your logic wasn't just that we couldn't have a replacement there. See:

Too much info off this lynch

, slot looks super scummy as of Day 2 reactions and the slip Pac pointed out, replacement can't fill the boots IMO

You did say that if Fegelein-Mathdino flipped town you'd want to pressure Om of the Nom. So scum beat you to it?

How do you know we have three scum in the set-up? There are other options, including two scum with a traitor, for example. I personally don't think RadiantCowbells is an SK, and I'm not even sure I'd put a bet on him being the one who killed SecretAgentSloth. But interesting that you don't think the scum set-up supports an SK.

[penguin_alien]

If he flips town, probably Om.

If he flips scum, probably Ztife.

So why Ztife now that Fegelein flipped town?

[penguin_alien]

No, it's a contest to lynch scum. I can see where you're confused on account of that not being what you're doing.

People off the wagon: me, Om, RC, mathdino, Ankamius. First four are not scum. If Ankamius was scum, killing off the wagon leaves him as the only off the wagon option, although his presumed team couldn't know that RC would soft-claim a non-mafia killing role. If two scum were on the wagon, I could see killing off the wagon to avoid narrowing down the on-wagon possibilities. SAS was on both wagons, making it less likely his partners (I'll assume three mafia with or without an SK) were on both wagons. don_johnson, RD, and evilpacman18 were off cheery Dog and on fegelein. Evilpacman tried to jump on Cheery Dog.

All this makes me wonder if Red Dragon is trying to get ahead of being lynched.

VOTE: Red Dragon

[penguin_alien]

Without reading too much of the posts (they're a bit too wally for me), I'm still getting a lot of the cautious tone in his posts. His suspicion of the YOLO slot in ISO#27 then going for it without what looks like anything changing in ISO#32 just rubs me the wrong way.

The derp hammer at the end of the last day is really annoying too.
(Null-Scum)

So what, you're voting a null-scum read over a scum read (MrBump) because you don't want to end the day? If MrBump was at L-1, sure, but you voting him would only then put him at L-1. Why not see how he reacts? You say you're not reading much of Ztife's posts, and your two talking points are his hammering a lynch that many people were discussing as inevitable and his objecting to someone lurking in conjunction with earlier scummy posts from that slot. Which is rather valid, actually.

And why do you think the MrBump wagon's crap? Right now everyone voting it is somewhere between a town and null read for you, and I'm seriously tempted to put him at L-1 (which would put another town read of yours on the wagon).

Overall this strikes me as scum not wanting to be on a wagon they have reason to think will flip town.

UNVOTE: Red Dragon
VOTE: Ankamius

[penguin_alien]

UNVOTE: Ztife
VOTE: Red Dragon

Is there more to this than OMGUS, and if so, care to share?

[penguin_alien]

I'll buy all that, and Ankamius's follow-ups read town.

UNVOTE: Ankamius
VOTE: Red Dragon

[penguin_alien]

I'd note that there's actually no reason to assume that a three-Mafia, one-SK set-up is out of the question depending on town power. Admittedly we've only had town flip vanilla, which would mean we'd need decent power concentrated in the last five presumed town slots, but I think the use of an SK can actually detract from Mafia's strength?

I do agree that there's little reason for RC to claim as vig here, unless he's one- or two-shot. But if he was doing so, he should have completely claimed to confirm himself as town and make it clear that he's no longer useful to town as a PR.

[penguin_alien]

Y'know, given that you (RC) haven't made a case on me and aren't playing in a pro-town fashion, if you opt to shoot me I don't think it'll boil down to my play being horribly anti-town. You're not on my to-lynch list any time soon regardless.

What do you see as evidence of either of us being logically inept?

[penguin_alien]

And that's L-1. Please no quickhammers here, especially as Red Dragon is on V/LA IIRC. Although does his V/LA take him past deadline?

[penguin_alien]

Normally I'd say mass claim here, except given the sheer number of VTs who have flipped, I suspect we'd just be giving scum the chance to fake-claim PRs.

I kind of want to string up RadiantCowbells and take our chances on town having a PR that can give us 5p LyLo instead of endgame, as I think it's quite likely we end up in a town-as-kingmaker scenario otherwise. Not the best pro-town attitude, I know, but even if we hit Mafia today, that's two kills to stave off at night. Especially since it seems there's a non-zero chance Mafia went for RC and were thwarted by him being BP or something.

[penguin_alien]

...because it was super-pro-town for RC to hammer a lynch with nearly a week left to deadline where the lynchee was at L-1 without a claim? RC can claim vig of any type until he's blue in the face, I will not believe a word of it.

[penguin_alien]

Please explain to me how this:

Did someone say

VOTE: Red Dragon

Following this:

And that's L-1. Please no quickhammers here, especially as Red Dragon is on V/LA IIRC. Although does his V/LA take him past deadline?

Comes from a town mindset. We likely have two Mafia left, as two scum with an SK is as underpowered as it's possible to be. Although we do have a lot of VTs based on flips, so it's possible, I'll grant. But in that case we have even less to lose by lynching RC.

And everyone got to participate yesterday, so I don't know where that's coming from.

[penguin_alien]

If we massclaim, RC absolutely needs to be included.

[penguin_alien]

I think popcorn would be best, and evilpacman18 starting is fine by me.

[penguin_alien]

VT, popcorn MrBump.

[penguin_alien]

Fine, popcorn to you, Ztife, instead of MrBump. Since if he's in Ireland as per his user info, no reason to waste another 12 hours.

[penguin_alien]

That's thoroughly asinine. Let's deconstruct:

Your quickhammer was a horrible move. Why would scum thinking you were a full vig help anything? So what, they kill you, as I'd be surprised if that move would buy you doctor protection, assuming we even have a doctor.

Yes, at 3p town-mafia-sk, scum should attempt to crosskill, but SKs often have at least one-shot bulletproof, no guarantee that such a crosskill doesn't give the SK the game.

You say don_johnson and I disagreeing must mean we're not both scum, and apparently not the same alignment...because scum never stage disagreements. And if two players disagree one has to be scum.

Your case on me is, so far as I can tell, that I found you scummy as all get-out. So, preemptive OMGUS.

SK claiming vig is an old gambit, albeit one that still works. Is there anything you think supports your claim in your posts from before Day Three?

[penguin_alien]

But you just said you're effectively a VT now at worst, still mislynch bait at best. Why would I care as scum? If what you say is true and the scum likely attempted to kill someone besides Bacde Night One, presumably they failed due to a PR. I should be hoping to get said PR strung up instead, and lynching elsewhere gives me minimum one in three of hitting a PR by that reasoning.

And I don't think Buffy has much to do with this, but way to ignore anything there you don't want to address.

[penguin_alien]

good deductions RC. i was thinking the same thing with penguins push to get you lynched. if you are vig, though, that means we have two scum left, so we should finish the mass claim before lynching anyone. you certainly aren't cleared at this point, but this is much more town oriented thought than your play yesterday. i'm fine skipping to ztife.

Um, you really don't think RC deserves any pressure? This kissing up to RC does rival RC's quickhammer for scumminess.

Ztife, if it were multiball, I'd expect scum not to have killed the same target two nights (assuming no town PRs are interfering). And since I'm guessing we're a town without super-helpful PRs, as (a) a vig can swing things wildly if RC is being truthful, and (b) I don't expect don_johnson to claim a PR, as he put himself last on his own list. (He'd want to be believed if he had a role to claim and so would have wanted to claim early enough not to look like opportunistic scum) Of course, if he was really thinking I was scum, he should have wanted me not second-to-last on his claim order, which also makes me think he's changing his read to kiss up to RC. For reference:

i think the order should be:

epm
ztife
bump
penguin
me

or popcorn with epm or ztife going first.

Also, if we do have zero-to-one PRs, we could be dealing with a two-man scum team +/- a third party.

Overall don_johnson looks worst to me right now. But leaving RC alive to potentially reach LyLo is problematic, as whoever the townie left at town-Mafia-RC won't know whether to play optimally as per town-Mafia-SK and no lynch or vote the Mafia, assuming town-Mafia-town.

Oh, also, how's this for an about-face:

w.
o.
w.

that was horrible. so many non contributors today. way to go.

in response to RC's quickhammer.

So if we lynch RC, we have to hope it was a two-man Mafia. If we lynch whomever we think is most likely Mafia, we have to hope again that it's a two-man team or that RC is actually a vig.

[penguin_alien]

Er, if everyone is claiming truthfully aside from scum claiming vanilla, it is entirely vanilla except a two-shot vig. Which is rather novel, as even the near-vanilla set-up gives two town PRs against three scum. It does seem unlikely that we have a two-man scum team with a two-shot vig, as that would allow the vig to single-handedly destroy the scum. I'd expect town as a group would need to be responsible for one scum kill any way it fell out to win.

/my set-up spec for now.

I generally don't like the idea of getting to the point where town has to no-lynch to have a shot at winning; I'd rather choose and choose wrong than be stuck with relying on others. evilpacman18, what's your take on all this?

[penguin_alien]

(I'm a she)

RC, you say you were trying to draw the NK. So how does quickhammering as scummily as possible make you a good NK target?

don_johnson, it seems more likely that there's an SK and Mafia, as the multiball set-up you posit is basically Fire and Ice with an extra townie and no pass for overlapping kills. I suppose it's balanced, though,. But RC as scum is acting mire like an SK, and any way you cut it, he's taking responsibility. Yes, scum should be aware of another killing power...? Not sure I see your point.

We need to hope we have one Mafia left or RC has a buddy, yes. If we lynch and leave two aligned scum out there with no other killers, we lose barring an unclaimed doc.

[penguin_alien]

If there's a cop out there with a result on anyone who isn't dead and they didn't speak up...sorry, but I totally fault them.

We have to lynch 2 scums in a row and hope that SK has no more shots left, and then lynch the SK. Only in this way we can win. Fear mongering? Nope, Im just stating the possible scenarios and facts. I have also said that I believe SK has another shot (or more) and therefore this scenario guarantees a town loss.

...I've never heard of an SK with a limited number of shots. That scenario also involves the SK being willing to help town lynch scum in that limited shots case at town-town-Mafia-SK, and town doesn't want to lynch then anyways, as SK should/could have shots. I do agree on the odds of the SK and Mafia picking the same person. It's not as bad as all that, since some targets, like Fegelein and some lower activity people were probably right out, but it's not great odds.

Meh, I'd also expect that if we have a doc who protected someone still alive now Night One, we'd have heard about it. Same if a RB is here and has a target they hit Night One.

[penguin_alien]

Based even just on the difference between proclaimed intent (draw the NK for looking like a claimed townie) and action (end the day phase with the scummiest post possible) I think RC is an SK. I think we may be sunk if we NK there. On the plus side we're very likely to hit anti-town in RC, but if there are two Mafia left we lose.
At this point with one or two Mafia left, we have to consider letting it get to a four or three player endgame scenario. Make scum play optimally. We can help by aiming to lynch Mafia. If we lynch right, we could be down to one scum total tomorrow.

My preference would be don_johnson based on today's play. I want to cross-check with who dead people were pushing and who pushed the fegelein lynch. Plus I owe the SAS ISO another read.

[penguin_alien]

seriously guys. if any of you are town, use your brains. no way in seven hells does scumdj try and prevent the lynch of an sk at this point in the game. NO FUCKING WAY. optimal scum play here is to lynch the sk.

Let's accept that unless RC has a really good answer for why he made himself look super-scummy right before night phase, he wasn't trying to draw the kill as a used up townie and so he's the SK. If you're scum, it's not outside the realm of possibility that your team shot him Night One. He might have refrained from killing last night, or he overlapped (the odds go down some significant amount at 7 people left. Assume Mafia don't shoot RC since he was so scummy, if there are two of them they had four choices. SK probably didn't want to help the town more; shot at towny looking person. Even with it being totally random, the odds quadruple. With it being less random, odds of overlap skyrocket. Oh, and I think the previous odds only accounted for the fact that the Mafia and SK would shoot a specific same person. Make the Mafia's target fixed, and suddenly the odds jump to 10%. Here, with the Mafia's target fixed, the odds go to 17% and only improve if the SK eliminates correct scum reads. Which, say what you will, RC did nail scum Night Two.)

Ahem. My original point, if scum already took a shot at RC, they could figure they've used up his BP allotment. A full BP SK in a 13p game with few if any PRs and only one other killing faction...possible, but unlikely. So why try to lynch him? You can just NK him and use this day to eliminate a townie, assuring LyLo if the SK shoots elsewhere and there's one of you left or an outright win with more than one Mafia surviving the night.

I acknowledge that this is only one possible explanation, but given the fact that it is feasible, your defense of RC doesn't absolve you of being scum. And your cheerleading of him earlier in the face of his scummy play looks like you're looking for an excuse not to find him worthy of a rope.

[penguin_alien]

RC, you say you were trying to draw the NK. So how does quickhammering as scummily as possible make you a good NK target?

[penguin_alien]

Yes, I'm aware, but since he's maintaining he was trying to draw the NK, I want him to reconcile the two.

[penguin_alien]

RC: Why did you shoot SAS?

A question that RC never answers. RC seems to be very good at not answering simple questions, eh? And if he shot SAS as a town vig, why not point out what made SAS scummy to him and so help us find scum.

Current pet theory: Mafia shot RC and used up some of his BP-ness. RC shot Ankamius. RC claims not to have shot; what are scum going to do, contradict him?

Otherwise Ankamius was looking at evilpacman18 and Ztife for scum.

Om of the Nom was pushing evilpacman18, MrBump, and Ztife in about that order.

Cheery Dog left with scum reads on Ztife and RC.

Bacde had a town read on don_johnson.

Red Dragon had a scum read on MrBump.

fegelein, who knows? Seems like it was just the easy lynch.

Secret Agent Sloth was scum-reading RC, DJ, and evilpacman18. Based on that, scum may have shot RC night one and failed, hence the lynch try; I suspect DJ or evilpacman18 is a partner.

don_johnson keeps talking about optimal scum play, but he's ignoring explanations that would make this optimal scum play and simultaneously ignoring that optimal play has hardly been the order of the day here. And his whole, "As scum I should be trying to lynch RC; since I'm not, I can't be scum!" is so WIFOM.

[penguin_alien]

What in this game makes you so willing to entertain the possibility that RC is a vig? Sure, I'd like to think we just have Mafia left to deal with, but RC on Day Three didn't claim vig straight out. If he was a two-shot vig trying to draw the NK, he should have been as towny as possible. If he was a full vig trying to buy time with his scummy act, he should have shot someone scummy, and Ankamius doesn't qualify. And if he was a full vig, he should have claimed that today.

I also doubt that there's be a full BP-SK in a game of this size. X-shot is far more common and balanced, especially since it seems increasingly unlikely that we have any investigative roles. So scum has to be thinking the same thing, and I suspect they've shot at RC at least once so far.

Single scum at this point needs to avoid being lynched or drawing the SK shot tonight. That leaves them in 3p LyLo if the kills don't overlap. You acting like you don't think RC is definitely the SK makes it less likely RC would shoot you. A two-man left team is in better position if they cozy up to the SK.

Bottom line, you coming into this with the idea that scum play would be going after the SK as today's lynch makes me think you've thought this out enough not to be so obvious as scum. Yes, it's paranoia, but given that we townies know nothing for certain, it's hardly unexpected. And you buddying a likely SK doesn't set my mind at ease.

[penguin_alien]

RC, you say you were trying to draw the NK. So how does quickhammering as scummily as possible make you a good NK target?

I'm going to keep asking until I get an answer from RC. Maybe that fits the whole 'insanity is repeating the same action expecting to get a different result' shindig, but I want to know.

I agree with those saying RC is an SK based on the play we've seen. All the same, we're better off aiming for scum.

Otherwise Ankamius was looking at evilpacman18 and Ztife for scum.

Om of the Nom was pushing evilpacman18, MrBump, and Ztife in about that order.

Cheery Dog left with scum reads on Ztife and RC.

Bacde had a town read on don_johnson.

Red Dragon had a scum read on MrBump.

fegelein, who knows? Seems like it was just the easy lynch.

Secret Agent Sloth was scum-reading RC, DJ, and evilpacman18. Based on that, scum may have shot RC night one and failed, hence the lynch try; I suspect DJ or evilpacman18 is a partner.

Mafia possibilities are don_johnson, evilpacman18, MrBump, and Ztife. Flipped town had (counting town reads as -1 and scum reads as +1) -1 for don_johnson, +2 for evilpacman18, +3 for Ztife, +2 for MrBump. SAS read list gives us reason to think don_johnson or evilpacman18 could be scum partners.

While I personally like don_johnson for scum, the wisdom of the deceased points to Ztife or evilpacman18.

[penguin_alien]

Not sure if Ven answered this, but iirc, I had +town read on Feg, bump, bcade.

I held off on my ztife read, because I was waiting for Street Racers to end. Ztife was town in that one, so was going to compare styles. Will do this in the next few days.

Don't remember Ank, but slight scumread on penguin. Replacement reasons? I don't remember.

The actual wagon ends with us. Which seems off, but the "extended wagon" seems to be +Om and +evilpacman.

I like Om for town, and evil for scum. I think. Yeah, YOLO replacement.

Here's the only place where SAS mentions Ztife aside from answering his question here:

@SAS
post 656
Why feg? Who are your common top scum reads?

Ven picked Feg.

Common scumreads are Don, Evil & Radiant.

We disagree on Feg and Penguin.

~P

The whole 'must wait on a Ztife read until Street Racers is done' is silly. He could still have formed an opinion, especially since Ztife was lynched Day One there and PeregrineV was quite familiar with the game, having played it. Maybe he couldn't cite the game to support his read, but he didn't seem to cite other games to support reads either. He never gives a read on Ztife at all that I can find.

I'm not sure if PeregrineV-Venmar would interact with a buddy this way, or if they'd scum read them or what at a stage where there's no pressure on the scum team.

[penguin_alien]

penguin: i am starting to think it is more likely 3pscum vs town with vig.

Since RC is still avoiding answering my question, how do you reconcile his incredibly anti-town behavior with his claim? Add in his AtE:

I believe that's game for town.

Ztife and EPM as a scumteam makes little sense so there's at least one town willing to vote me, so getting a lynch on legitimate scum is impossible.

GG WP. Sorry if I wasn't the best PR, town.

We have a week. The wagon he's pushing is at L-1 at the time he posted this. Where is that coming from?

Bottom line, for whatever reasons our goals converge: no lynching RC, attempt to lynch scum.

MrBump is probably the least likely scum as far as I can tell. evilpacman18 is establishing some town reads at this stage of the game, and given how things have been shifting, I'm not sure he as scum would commit so heavily to town reads right now. scum-evilpacman18 has little motivation to explain with such conviction why MrBump is looking towny, and I tend to agree that MrBump isn't seizing on disagreements as reasons to push a lynch as would be quite easy to do as scum here.

So it's Ztife, who SAS ignores and lots of eliminated town players wanted dead, or don_johnson, who might be playing me.

No real conclusion yet except that I'm not in a very 'trust my reads' place right now.

[penguin_alien]

Things I agree with: we have an all-vanilla town and RC is an SK, likely BP to some degree. If this were multiball, RC shouldn't be BP and so would have no reason to gambit like he did, as the other scum team should have killed him. If RC is a vig, he hasn't...argh, trying not to be gratuitously insulting here...played in a pro-town fashion? I'll leave it at that and reserve the right to rant in post-game if he's a vig.

Not sure about 3 vs. 2 man scum team. Thinking of other 12-13 player game set-ups. Near-Vanilla is three goons balanced by a doc and JK. Fire and Ice has two 2-man goon teams balanced by nullified overlap-kills and a doc. While the BP SK weakens the Mafia, it doesn't really help the town and possibly requires us to lynch four anti-town players.

Looking at this again. If we are against a three-man scum team, even lynching the correct scum sends us into night 3-1-1, with the possibility of it being 1-1-1 come morning, which if RC is BP, leaves town screwed. Actually, there Mafia has to hope RC's BPness has run out and shoot him at the 3-1-1 night, leaving it at 2-1-0, 3-0-0, 2-1-1, or 3-0-1.

Since I don't think evilpacman18 or MrBump is scum, the only possibility to me is a don_johnson-Ztife-SAS scum team. In which case the survivors are bussing like crazy.

@penguin
What do you think are the possibilities of town winning if we hit scum and town losing if we hit town?

@penguin
What are you actually thinking or considering about? If you are attempting to scum hunt, ask questions. Ask me, ask DJ, ask bump whatsoever. You can ask RC and EPM, but I doubt you will get anything. And think what what I have asked you.

Also, please answer this penguin. Do you think RC is SK and do you think he needs to be lynched today? Assuming you are 100% sure of who scum is, what makes the difference between lynching them today and tomorrow?

By lynching SK today you also eliminate the possibility of having 2 NKs tonight. Also, compare the possibility of how sure of you who the SK is and how sure of you who the scum is precisely why im telling you to lynch RC first, and you can go for me (or dj or whatever) tomorrow. Why is that hard to see? Do you also understand that to lynch RC we probably need your vote and we still have to convince EPM?

If we hit Mafia and it's a three-man scum team, i.e. 3-1-1 going into night, it's a crapshoot depending on night kills and a possible kingmaker scenario for town if RC is full BP. Which Mafia would almost certainly claim is the case. Hitting town with a two-man team is the same scenario, except if RC kills Mafia we don't know for sure that all Mafia is dead.

At this point, I'm assuming one of you (Ztife) and DJ is scum. I find it less odd that DJ didn't mention SAS than that SAS didn't mention you, given the way some of the early days went. As far as scum hunting goes, you've both made your stances quite clear, and the longer things go on, the less I think I want to lynch either of you today. If I'm around tomorrow and we're trying to find scum, there will be plenty of time to investigate then. Or more likely at 3-1, move to no-lynch and hope the choice gets dumped on some other townie's shoulders.

DJ, if RC is a 2-shot vig, we're screwed any way we go, since we're lynching him today or tomorrow. A three-man scum team with a correct scum lynch today with RC as a vig out of shots has one scum left and one NK, but let's face it, we're all betting on RC being an SK and would lynch him as responsible for the single kill in that case. I don't see the mod having an X-shot vig where X = # of Mafia when a near-vanilla town is presumably in place to make us rely on the day phases for victory. A 2-man scum team forces the survivor to narrow the pool via NKs if we no-lynch at MyLo.

ztife/bump/SAS scum team against town with RC limited vig.

so we lynch ztife first. sort out between bump and RC tomorrow.

So it's 3-1-1. Two NKs, likely on town, leaves town as kingmaker. Even 2-1-1 leaves town screwed. And like I said, sorting out between MrBump and RC is almost certainly going to result in lynching RC. I'll tell you right now that that would be my choice. If we're going to lose because we're up against a three-man scum team, I'd rather do it now.

[penguin_alien]

If RC is a vig, he hasn't...argh, trying not to be gratuitously insulting here...played in a pro-town fashion? I'll leave it at that and reserve the right to rant in post-game if he's a vig.

Get the fuck over it you crybaby.

Seeing as you apparently have no such qualms, I'll be quite leery of playing in any future games with you, regardless of your flip.

[penguin_alien]

RC: so it's fine for people to see vig-you as scummy, but not to note that you failed to claim and play in a pro-town way? Looking forward to hearing how you justify your quickhammer on Red Dragon and complete refusal to engage in dialogue this past day phase.

P-edit: no kidding. Seeing as if RC isn't trolling we just lost.

[penguin_alien]

Would that I were.

[penguin_alien]

@DJ: I was asleep. Why the inquiry a mere five hours after the thread opens?

@Ztife: I didn't vote yesterday because I wasn't sure what made the most sense. It comes down to you or DJ as the scum we need to lynch for me, and I need to look over how the RC hammer happened, as I figured the night phase was just a formality. I don't have time to sort things through ATM.

@MrBump, I'm leaning Ztife myself, but only by a little. I want to reassess with evilpacman18's flip too. WRT the traitor possibility, there are multiple options, but nothing right now that's useful to voice. If you're town, I'd suggest reading up on the options in the wiki.

[penguin_alien]

If MrBump is scum we're screwed, so I'll go with the theory that it's DJ or Ztife. In that case we could be at MyLo absent a traitor, but since there is the possibility of a traitor gumming up the works, I think we're better off taking a stab at choosing correctly at MyLo rather than dragging things out another night phase.

I don't think I have any questions for Ztife or DJ. MrBump, what changed for you between #972 and #988 in terms of DJ vs. Ztife?

[penguin_alien]

Prod received. Sorry about that, and more generally for dragging out the game.

Another look through the ISOs with Secret Agent Sloth's in tandem and remembering that chillkid was in don_johnson's slot makes me think Ztife's our best bet at killing scum today. There was actually more natural interaction with SAS-chillkid, plus a couple places where chillkid sheeped SAS in a way that seems unlikely from a scum mindset. So, MrBump, any last thoughts before we make a decision?

(although wouldn't it be a heck of a thing if Ztife and don_johnson were a mafia-traitor combo?)

No questions for Ztife and don_johnson, really.

[penguin_alien]

Fine. I'll continue my streak of being an excellent person for scum to bring to M/Lylo situations and VOTE: Ztife

[penguin_alien]

Question is, would Ztife NK the person screaming for his head? Or would don_johnson kill evilpacman18 to throw us off? Or would MrBump get rid of someone who knows his meta? Heck if I know any more.

[penguin_alien]

Dead thread, please?

And yeah, there were some pretty impulsive days early on.