Open 11 - Pie C9 (Game over) - before 400

[Skruffs]

Hello all. This puts me at five minis so don't tell anyone shhh

[Skruffs]

You're so kind bird1111! I should be fine.
*Readreadread*

[Skruffs]

(begins to screw in a lightbulb)
THE LIGHT IS COMING OMG

[Skruffs]

v.v I have a post ready, however it is on my home computer, which is without internet. So in the meanwhile, baseless accusations.

Original Roll String: 1d268

1 268-Sided Dice: (142) = 142

This post is scummy and I will instigate conversation in my next post as to why.
(I'm excited to see who it is!)[/dice]

[Skruffs]

Try that again..

Original Roll String: 1d3

1 3-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

-1 for hundreds value

Original Roll String: 1d10

1 10-Sided Dice: (4) = 4

with 10 as 0 for tens value

Original Roll String: 1d10

1 10-Sided Dice: (7) = 7

with 10 as 0 for ones value.

[Skruffs]

O.O
Okay. Well. Obviously this is the wrong way to go about finding scum.
TEH mod is not scum, and even if he was, he's unlynchable. Since it basically said "Post two", I went back and just reread tha game. Different conclusions this time.

Looking at Ernie - his biggest splash in this game was with this:

Unvote
Vote Nightfall

Let's say I want to find out if someone will hammer...

But that's not a majority on him, isn't it? I just skirmed through the thread and I think he's just got 4 votes.

I wasn't hammering. He had 2 votes on him and mine was the 3rd, but when people started questioning me and saying I shouldn't have, I thought for a moment that I had made a mistake and hammered (which I hadn't anyway). If somebody had hammered right away it would have been suspicious enough, but nobody did so it doesn't matter anyway.

Guys, take a moment to read the post above. Do you really think I was hammering? No. I was putting him at -1 to see if someone else would have hammered.

And I think this has been brought up but.. the mentality is that he'll put someone at -1 to see if someone will hammer. Later on, he says that nobody hammered so

what does it matter

... If you were really baiting scum, which is really really dangerous when more than half the people in the game have power roles, than the fact that nobody hammered should tell us something about A) nightfall's allignment or B) the alignment of people already voting for nightfall or C) the care that scum is putting into not being caught. Based on what had happened before your third vote ( and in the rest of hte game) I think B is the most likely choice.

That aside, sayign that he is putting him at -1, then claiming not to know how many it takes to lynch, makes it seem like you were only pretendign to 'put him at -1' but actually thought you were lynching. Your later discussion with patrick where you ask someone who was already voting you to go ahead and vote you suggests just aren't paying attention - but at the beginning and end of this confusion you say things that indicate you *are* aware of the situation. Which is it?
(This is actually addressed to Ernie, who is now CDB, who can't really answer it, can they? Shame. If I had been around when eErnie was in the game, this is the post I would have pushed on him, and I still think that the knot of contradictions is worth untangling)

Twito, I'm very surprised with you. The last 7 player game I played with you, you were confident of yourself and set traps to ensnare scum with -and they worked, too, except that the scum outtalked you and got you lynched. This game you seem to be playing a non-offensive goofball. *poke poke poke*

fircoal I am wishy washy on. his posts seem more deliberately non-serious than twito, who seems to be more taking things that people say and running with it - fircoal just seems to be playing follow the leader.

ripley - On one hand you say that Ernie was scum (without voting him) and that you are consider him as scum but at the same time you seem to be saying "Give him another chance" and "I'm not sure this is worth going after" while pushing for twito/fircoal to be lynched. Hum.

patrick - seems sensible, and makes logical moves. Doesn't really offer anything up to be scrutinized but still gets votes against him anyways, probably for being a dry-witted english man. I know he likes chess IRL so that probably plays a part in his decision making process - when Shadowlurker(me) put someone at -1, patrick immediately unvoted to prevent a lynch.

IN conclusion, I think that it is most likely to be Ripley and CDB who are scum.
INASMUCH : Leaving my vote on CDB.

Last note: we know what happens if we lynch the blocker today - but if we don't lynch SOME scum, we are going to be severely handicapped. Scum have as many night actions as town, with the added benefit of knowing they themselves are. Much tighter setup than a newbie.

[Skruffs]

I in no way meant to defend fircoal. I think it's likely that fircoal is tagging along behind goofy twito to seem innocent - because twito is more likely than him to get lynched for spamming and such.

If I misrepped ripley, it is because I am misunderstanding the way he isportraying himself, in which case, an explanation will ease my concern and i'll continue looking elsewhere.

[Skruffs]

I'm really not sure on my opinion on Nightfall yet. IE while there is some things about him that irk me, there are some other things that reassure me. I wil put a special post for him later, when I have a bit more time.

Fircoal, I'm not saying I think he will get lynched. I actually like how he claimed scum and tried to get people to react.

Actually I cut it out because I didn't want to add flame to the fire, when I initially read through I thought shadowlurker was acting the scummiest out of everyone in the game. But that's me. So I cut that out, because it was a convincing case, and I dont want to mislead town. I'll put it back in with my other post tonight.

Lemme gather my thoughts. We have at least two days?

[Skruffs]

Side note: We're potentially at LYLO.

[Skruffs]

Ripley - Scum had no reason not to target, especially with an open setup adn two actions a night. (Which seems unfair for town, it's basically a newbie with increased power for mafia)

Assuming they did both their actions, they already know that neither of the two people they targetted (for kill and roleblock) was the doctor. Tonight they will probably target two different people, which is the OTHER two people, and they will kill the doctor, or block him and kill someone else..

Secondly, why would you say that the scum have 6 people to target? What benefit would the scum have in targetting themselves? No, it's out of 4. We have to lynch right today, it at least gives the town a fifty/fifty chance tonight of getting another successful protection in.

If the cop got a successful result last night, then saying so would result in one scum killed. Not sure what would happen tonight then, presumably he'd be protected.
If he didn't, I would suggest not claiming.

[Skruffs]

One other option would be that the cop comes forward if they have a guilty result, and the doc then judges whether or not to come forward also. For example, if the doc had protected the cop, it would almost certainly be right to stay quiet unless there was a counterclaim.

I agree with this. I hadn't even considered the doctor being able to clear the person they protected last night. Good insight.

I still think claiming should only happen in the 66% chance that the cop wasn't blocked last night.

[Skruffs]

We know doc wasn't targetted by the two actions (successful protect)
The other three townies, one of them is the cop
Cop had a 33% chance of being blocked.

If the cop has a successful investigation - he got scum - than he should claim.
There's a 33% chance that he is the one the doctor protected - the doctor definitely knows one townie now, assuming that the mafia tried to kill last night. If the cop is counterclaimed, and one of the claimed cops is the one the doctor protected, the doctor can claim to clear the cop.


However, scum can also do a double claim and hope for a mislynch.

So for now let's just try and lynch scum. Don't vote for anyone who already has a vote on them, if you are town, and we can't speedlynch.

[Skruffs]

Wow... The cop might have an innocent result. If he does, scum doesn't know anything.
No baiting, here, either of you.

[Skruffs]

"Problem with that is, if nobody comes forward, the scum know who the cop is. Whereas the rest of us, including the doc, don't."
Thing is last night was the only effective night a claimed cop gets. Tonight a claimed cop will be blocked if we mislynch today - if the cop was blocked, then saying so tells nobody anything. If he got an innocent, and doesn't come out with it, scum will not know if they blocked a cop or a townie. As soon as he says who he is, he's blocked tonight, unless we can be sure to lynch scum.

[Skruffs]

I agree with you, Ripley, but we should minimize town's losses if possible.
It's worth rereading.

[Skruffs]

Hmm.
Just realized a slip up by the mod. Sorry for the slight metagaming here:

I think, if the cop has any result, innocent or not, they should claim. If the doctor protected that person, that person is cleared. That's three people.

Poll:

In favor of cop claiming only with guilty result: 0
In favor of cop claiming only with any result : 1 (Skruffs)
In favor of cop claiming regardless of result : 0
In favor of cop not claiming regardless of result : 0

[Skruffs]

Wow, Ripley, I sense hostility?
Whoever the cop protected is cleared. If someone claims to be a cop, and the doctor protected that person, and there

is

a counterclaimer, the doctor can

automatically

clear the real cop. This is assuming a townie doesn't ile, and claim cop, but I doubt any of us are that foolish.

I thought that was simple to understand. Maybe I worded it badly.

Ripley, you are more than welcome to copy-paste the poll and add yourself to it with whatever option you want. Telling me I am not including your opinion doesn't mean anything - I didn't include anyone but my own's. EVeryone should copy and add their

own idea or opinion

, but it's a vote, that way. I'm not the mod, I'm not going to do it for them.
You just seem very nervous all of a sudden.

[Skruffs]

I'll go ahead and state that if the town mislynches today, I won't even go to night as the scum will have fufilled their win condition due to it being impossible for them to not win.

This is the goof (sorry mod, have to point it out)
The only way that the scum will know with 100% accuracy that they will block or kill the doctor is if they targetted two people last night.
If they had targetted the same person with both actions (which doesn't even really make sense) than there would be three people left 'unchecked' and they could max have a 66% cvhance of blocking or killing the doctor.

Since we know that the scum definitely know that the doctor is one of two people, we know that they definitely targetted two people last night.


Here is who I think is most likely to be scum out of everyone left:
All of you. I don't really know how to pick and choose through everyone to figure out which two are scum.

Claiming, mass claiming at least, will at least clear some people - either townise will be cleared or the power roles will be cleared.

If we do claim, I guses we should do roles first, targets second. I will expect both doctors to have claimed the same targets.

Just musing now.
Anyways.

[Skruffs]

I can claim second, it's no problem for me. Or first, if that's what everyone wants.

[Skruffs]

Hodl on, I've almost got the system set up. It's pretty.

[Skruffs]

MEant to ask : Ripley, you care where you go in that order?

[Skruffs]

Theoretically, I'd like to say that everyone in the mislynch yesterday should go first : That's CDB, Patrick, Nightfall, Ripley. Only in reverse, as each vote put fircoal closer. I'm curious why Patrick wants the two people who didn't lynch Fircoal to go first. Oh well, he knows what he's doing, I'm sure. I'd liek to pipe in with that, but I won't.

Nightfall : cdb, skruffs first
Patrick : skruffs, twito, then nightfall, himself doesn't matter, ripley last
Skruffs : any order
Twito : No preferences states
Ripley : (twito) nightfall, skruffs
CDB - Nightfall first

With that said, I made a simple system of assigning weights. Assign each place a number, subtract that number from 5 (yes this does make negative numbers), add totals together.

Nightfall : CDB

Skruffs

Nightfall

Twito Patrick Ripley

Patrick : Skruffs

Twito

Nightfall

CDB Patrick

Ripley

Ripley : Twito

Nightfall

Skruffs

Patrick CDB Ripley

CDB : Nightfall

Skruffs Ripley Patrick CDB Twito

Twito/ Skruffs :

Nightfall Twito Skruffs CDB Patrick Ripley

Black = 4, Blue = 3, Green = 2, Red = 0 (no opinion), white = -1

With that table, scores are:
Nightfall : 11 points
Skruffs : 9 points
Twito : 7 points.
CDB : 4 points
Patrick : 0 points
Ripley : -1 Points

I'm really curious about it. Still, yeah, everyone should confirm/change their choices before anyoen starts.

[Skruffs]

Last post, promise. I wrote my predictions down and posted them somewhere. If I'm write, I'll link tot hem later. If I'm not, I won't.

[Skruffs]

I had already said otherwise regarding my preferences, and changing it right before the start of the claiming is disruptive.

And actually,
No. While a mislynch is better than a non-mislynch, in regular 7 player, in this game, it's not.
Because we only had four townies left after the lynch, scum couldn't seal the deal like they did this time. With five players, it could take up to three nights to combo block/kill all of them, depending on who was lynched the second day. So no, lynching anyone was

not

better than lynching nobody at all. Lynching nobody at all would not have streamlined this game so effectively for scum.

We really didn't think this through before hand - I didn't, anyways. I'll blame the deadline for that, but a deadline does *not* mean that we need to lynch someone ASAP. It's unfortunate none of the townies on the wagon thought of that, either.

Lastly..
Are you saying that you think me and Twito, who didn't lynch fircoal, are more likely to be a scum team than every other combination in the game?

I'm *real*curious about this: Why is it that you want Ripley to have the pleasure of claiming, last? You do realize the person who claims last has the most freedom to pick and choose through claims, right? You've effectively partially claimed already by saying that.

[Skruffs]

TOtally fine with that, however, let's have everyone confirm so that nobody has the excuse of "Oh I didn't want to do this" later on.

And to be honest, Ripster, the list i provided isn't accounted for at all, but thats' just a note. I don't have an issue, there, no matter who was in last place, i would be suspicious of them.

[Skruffs]

Twito, nightfall?

[Skruffs]

Relax, nightfall. We'll figure it out. There's four of us and two of them, whoever they are. I mean, if you are scum, then forget it - you're screwed.

Side note -while waiting for twito to respond - should we each respond to each claim befroe the next person goes?

[Skruffs]

okie dokie, just wandering. I'm goign first so..

I am a regular townie with no abilities at night.
Who's surprised? And I am 98% sure of who the other townie will be. It's based on scum logic.

[Skruffs]

Don't put words in my mouth.
You're speculating.

[Skruffs]

Might as well.
Dooo it.

[Skruffs]

Why all the pessimism?
This is a fun game.

[Skruffs]

I guess I was wrong in my predictions. Nobody will be seeing those.

[Skruffs]

You should be proud of me right now. I am nto gabbing. I am being nice.

[Skruffs]

Waiting on CDB, right?
Come on, CDB!

[Skruffs]

I don't know the feasiblity of this, but maybe you can tell teh mod who to say you claimed if you are not around? Is that practical?

[Skruffs]

I lvoe the board.
Yes I am sayign that Twito can pass that information on to the mod, to relay back to us when we ask him (after everyone is done claiming or whenever) in case twito is not around to ask of, himself.

[Skruffs]

Yeah but it tells the rest of us who *don't* know something Who you guys protected = cleared townie. And I'm really really surprised patrick claimed townie.
I thought for sure he protected or inspected Ripley, based on how trusting he seems of the guy who hammered the day before

[Skruffs]

And as I have pointed out, under further consideration, there actually is nothing wrong with nolynching, compared to random lynching. It definitely benefitted scum to mislynch
far more than it would have hurt us to nolynch.

Anyways, that aside, you were still acting very trustworthy of ripley before and during the setting up of a claiming process; I had assumed that it was because you knew something, but now I'm just suspicious. Considering the biggest argument against twito/fircoal yesterday was that they were acting way too friendly with each other, it makes sense that people would not be so open about their faith in each other today. Anyways.


One of Twito/Ripley and one of Me/CDB/Patrick are the obvious scum, for those viewers just tuning in.

[Skruffs]

Again, the emphasis is not on the voting record, it's the jovial nature of you and ripley.

[Skruffs]

I am being set up the bomb.
Okay. I'm not going to push that it was scummy to lynch badly day one, but looking at it, with this setup, it may have potentially been better not to. That being said, I'm done with the argument.
I can feel myself getting defensive, and when I get defensive, I get paranoid and impulslive, so..
I'm going to take a step back, breath a few times, and look at this game with open eyes. While I originally thought based on behavior that patrickand ripley were the scum, i could be wrong (And probably am wrong) - and if i keep pushing it, i'll be an easy lynch target.
So, that explained, i am going to take a little nap and come back. Doctors should claim.

[Skruffs]

I am going to go out on a limb and say that you are claiming that as the real doctor, you protected patrick - which is why you are not including him as a possible sum. Correct?
If you confirm this than I can stop being so suspicious about how the two of you are treating each other

. At this point it's all in, or nothing. We either lynch right or we fudge up and it's game over. That being said, we have a 50/50 shot of (with no other influeces) lynching correctly between twito and ripley, a 33% chance between me, CDB and patrick.

This is why the power roles need to speak, because it's what they've done or at least say they do that is going to determine the outcome of the game. I agree both doctors should claim before nightfall does. But no hinting or breadccrumbing or baiting, just say it.

[Skruffs]

Ha. Somehow I missed where you actually said you protected patrick, or stopped reading when you didn't include him as scum, or something.
Yay.
Okay that might come accross as hostile, it's not meant to be.

Sure, what are your reasons?

[Skruffs]

Thanks, and, cool.
We might just win this.

[Skruffs]

I don't follow your reasoning; if the doctor could the cop, cop would not possibly have been blocked. We'd have a cleared person/caught scum. As it is, the suspense hangs over this game like the iron curtain.

[Skruffs]

Agreed with patrick.
He said he was on spring break and would check in while he could...

Let's just wait. It's better to be thorough than to be fast. Slow n steady wins the race.

[Skruffs]

aye aye, captn.

Vote : !

Sorry. Just feeling ornery today.

[Skruffs]

WHAT?!

[Skruffs]

It does say that in the thread. If we lynch any mafia, though, we get to go to the next day. It just means the cop and doctor will be useless tonight, if we get the wrong one.

[Skruffs]

for the record -this game is not stalling. I'm not going to say anything until twito posts.
However, in consideration, it is more likely in my eyes that ripley is the true doctor, having reviewed the thread.
Still, i'm waiting for twito to post to say why.

[Skruffs]

It's like waiting for santa or something.

I'm going to wait for Twito, too, because I'm not 100% sure.

Twito, I hope you enjoy knowing that there are 5 people pensively waiting on you.

[Skruffs]

CDB is a townie; he has nothing more to claim, action wise.

[Skruffs]

oh did you mean CDB should be replaced?
I thought you meant that he should be prodded. And I don't see the point.
And if you think me and CDB are scum together, just remember that only one claimed townie is scum. So me, CDB,a nd patrick can trash talk each other all we want, while we wait for Twito.

[Skruffs]

Hi Fonz. Talk or die! <3

[Skruffs]

Well, the obvious kill for the night is the cop - with the doc blocked.
I"ve been scrutinizing posts for any sign if people 'know' that nightfall was blocked or not, but so far it's been pretty well covered up, if he was.

Twito is unfortunately not around to share why he protected me (or if he even did for real), me and him have had our issues in the past, though, in other games. It could be that, not having lynched fircoal himself, he protected the only other person who wasn't on the fircoal wagon - and scum just got unlucky in choosing to kill me rather than him.

THIS IS ALL SPECULATION, THOUGH

. I don't have any real leads, so I Am tossing this out. Patrick has already suggested that it is more likely that scum weren't on the lynching wagon at all, than that they were, which while I know to be inaccurate, also seems illogical at best - I'd like to peruse some nerbie games (Similar setups) and see the likelihood of one vs both vs none of scum to be on the wagon.

[Skruffs]

HEre's a question I would like opinions on:
Scum know wether or not the cop was blocked. THey therefore know how likely it is that he could incriminate one of them. KLnowing that, how likely is a real scum to claim to have protected their partner? I was honestly hoping that both docs would claim the same person - it would at least clear THAT person. Knowing that one doc is being truthful and that one has no reason to be truthful, what does that mean about CDB?

I am fully and completely aware of the wifomness of this question, however, because there's no complete and direct answer, i think we have a unique possiblity to discuss it. FOr prestige's sake.

[Skruffs]

While we wait for Nightfall to post his stuff, I'll just cut down through impossible scum arrangements.
First : no counterclaim to the cop : Night fall can not be paired with anyone.
Second - one of the two docs is real - they other is scum. THey can't be paired to each other or to nightfall.
Third: One of the townies is scum - the other two are real - they can't be scum together.
THat leaves us with six possiblities.
Twito-Skruffs, Twito-CDB, Twito-Patrick
Ripley-Skruffs, RIpley-CDB, Ripley-Patrick
Not too shabby. Those are the facts.
Lastly - we are going to assume scum tried to kill last night - and that the doctor was successful in preventing that kill. This means that, the real doctor protected a real townie. Knowing that, we know that the scum doctor can not be paired with the people that the real doctor protected.
Twito-Skruffs, Twito-CDB,

Twito-Patrick

Ripley-Skruffs

, RIpley-CDB, Ripley-Patrick

Four choices left. If me or patrick are lynched and turn out to be scum, the person who protected them is also scum. However, with CDB, we still won't know who the real scum would be, ASSUMING That CDB is scum. I'm not assuming that, I'm merely showign which correct lynches would be most helpful.

Lynching the correct scum doc will clear the real doc, and the real townie that the real doc protected.
If, then, the scum that was lynched was the roleblocker, the correct doctor will die during the night, and the cop will get another result - clearing one of the last unknown townies and giving us the game.
If the scum that was lynched was the goon, then the doctor is blocked, the cop is killed, and we go to lylo with 2-2.

Okay? So that's the situation. Had anyone not gone through this before now?

[Skruffs]

a skruffs/ripley scum pairing is impossible, see above. (Assuming scum tried to kill)
same with a patrick/fonz pairing. If I am scum, than so is fonz.
I'm not scum, though. However, that doesnt' clear fonz.

To be honest, statistically, I think it's more likely that CDB is the scum out of all the townies. Scum - especially if they know thtey didn't block the cop - would have no reason to tie themselves together, in the event that the cop investigated their buddy.

But this is all theoretical. CDB tended to side with ripley against nightfall, twito, and fircoal day one.

[Skruffs]

I don't know which, yet. I can see either. If nightfall has a result on anyone OTHER than CDB, this game is in the bag, I think. I'm going to wait on that, before I start getting past speculation. In the game I played with twito in, where he was town, he baited scum and such and used little traps to try and figure out who was scum - but he didn't do that much this game. HE goofed around - a lot - with fircoal, and i don't think anyone liked it much. I got him lynched in our newbie game together (As scum) for the same antics. it's worth going back over, but i don't think it's feasible to base a lynchon that OR on what i saw about ripley and you.

I do notice that you seem to believe ripley's claim more than twito's. Aren't you worried what will happen if fnightfall has a guilty on ripley?

[Skruffs]

wow
that happened while i was posting.
I'll happily hammer, but I don't mind letting game go on a bit longer.

[Skruffs]

that's why i started reviewineg yesterday's mislynch in disfavor. We weren't thinking ahead.

[Skruffs]

Not worth speedlynching, regardless.
Goon would want to bus themselves to give their RBer a chance.

[Skruffs]

As compared to lurker CDB

[Skruffs]

Fonz - who did you guys roleblock last night?

[Skruffs]

Patrick: For future references - see all games with me as town. I trip over every scum trigger there is, and i don't know why or how, I'm tryign to fix it. But me playing as town comes accross as scum playing as town.

[Skruffs]

you guys had to have roleblocked me.

[Skruffs]

Breaking for lunch, back in an hour or so.
CDB is scum.

[Skruffs]

Vote : The Fonz

Now it's official.

Patrick, we will have words.

For the record:

That's what I thought. HAven't altered or changed it since I originally posted it.
What's funny is that, looking back - I thought it would be Twito and CDB as scum.

[Skruffs]

I tried to hedge in my betes, especially around the end when we were waiting for claims.
There was a lot I could have said that I didn't - it's the guessing that gets me in trouble I think

[Skruffs]

It was a good game!
I think the rber's ability to roleblock and kill different targets, the same night is obscene, though!

And I was sure patrick was scum after he buddied up to Ripley all day!
OMG!

[Skruffs]

All the scum shoulda claimed townies.

[Skruffs]

I wanted to ask Nightfall if he was blocked, over and over again. I'm glad I didn't. I am more glad he wasn't!