Mini 470 - Some Guys Are Trying To Kill You (done)

[Jimmy R]

Ok, had a good read through. Initial thoughts are no-one jumps out as too scummy immediately.

Most interesting part was seeing a few people jump on Soupfly then when he made some explanations, everyone seemed to back off. Similar situation with Oman but as someone pointed out, they probably got jumped on because they were the most active at the time.

Have some interesting ideas about who could be partnered up but nothing I want to reveal yet without seeing some more discussion.

Weird claim to being VI by Gator. Would be interested to know why Soupfly called him out as VI/Scum early on and if he still feels the same (since his vote is on Zakk atm)

Ergo, would you care to take your vote off me and re-cast, at least for now? I can't be judged by anything Langley has said (since he has hardly said anything)

Anyway,

FOS

Streeflo for #164 for now...just a feeling I have, nothing more at the moment.

[Jimmy R]

Anyway,

FOS

Streeflo for #164 for now...just a feeling I have, nothing more at the moment.

Interesting. Do you want me to defend myself against this... feeling?

Up to you, there's not much to defend really, was just a feeling I'm getting from some of your posts, nothing more at the moment.

It's the other way around: Langley was/you are voting for me.

Apologies, I misread last night, was late.

Unvote Ergo

for now, still unsure and would like to hear from everyone else.

[Jimmy R]

Don't think Gator is Scum (although ive been known to be wrong) so I just feel like it's a wasted vote and it seems silly to try and start a bandwagon on a probable Townie.

Vote Streeflo

for now, lets see what happens.

mod, can we get a vote count

when you get chance please, just want to make sure my tally is right.

[Jimmy R]

plus you lose the townie's vote, obviously.

A fantastic point. Even if Gator is as bad as he says he is (which I don't beleive, FTR, I think he's new and thats it) we can still sway him to be a vote for us.

Gonna have to agree with you here guys. Would be a wasted day for us to vote for Gator. We're definitely better off focusing on someone who we think is Scum. Much more beneficial that way.

Keeping my vote on Streeflo for now but definitely

FOS Jenter

as well now for the above reasons.

[Jimmy R]

We're definitely better off focusing on someone who we think is Scum.

Err on spam: thank you captian obvious

Eh, I know its obvious but it seemed some people were wanting to take the easy way and needed reminding of the point.

[Jimmy R]

I agree Oman, its just that nothing has happened yet to make me think he's scum. Streeflo and Jenter, on the other hand...

[Jimmy R]

Mainly the fact that they were both pretty eager to jump on someone who even they admitted is probably town 'to gain more info'. Also from reading the earlier posts again, Jenter is posting a lot with prety much no content, possibly to try and stay off the radar.

Keeping my vote on Streeflo for now until further developments.

[Jimmy R]

I never mentioed Zakk or what Streeflo thought of Zakk - you're twisting what I said now. I purely thought that Streeflo was up for lynching Gator at a stage where I felt he was probably town. #179 and #186 were where I got this feeling from but reading it again maybe I was a bit harsh.

Am going to

unvote

for now after re-reading this morning.

Keeping my

FOS on Jenter

for now.

Would be good to get a

votecount soon too, please mod

[Jimmy R]

Yeah, I think most people can agree that Jenter's play has been a little sus. I might be willing to turn my FOS to a vote, depending on what Jenter has to say about the matter.

[Jimmy R]

I

think

its 2, yourself and Niv but would be good to get an official votecount.

[Jimmy R]

Only because I'm not too sure where to dump it at the moment. I was thinking Streeflo but I seem to be alone in that and maybe I was a little hasty, had only just caught up reading then really.

I'm certainly willing to get behind a vote on Jenter if everyone else is leaning that way, as I've had my FOS on him for a while but only after we've given him a chance to respond.

[Jimmy R]

vote Jenter

for a pretty weak excuse and an attempt at deflecting the attention first, rather than focusing on proving his own innocence.

No harm in putting on a little pressure at this stage.

[Jimmy R]

FOS: Jimmy R

because his posts are making me feel pretty cautious. After some people questioned he vote on Streeflo, he unvoted and has quickly transitioned to a vote on Jenter. I don't think he liked being in the limelight.

The questioning of my vote and the people saying I misquoted Streeflo made me re-read again. And they were probably right. I wouldn't say I misquoted him because I never mentioned anything about Zakk, which was what got focused on but I was probably a little hasty on Streeflo.

This also explains my reluctance to drop my vote on Jenter, didn't want to make that mistake again but as you can see, I've had my FOS on him for a while.

[Jimmy R]

In my book reluctance to vote is generally a town move and in this case it definitely was for me. Didn't want to get on Jenter without re-reading...And of course I didn't want to make myself look scummy, because we can't afford to be lynching another Townie at this point.

[Jimmy R]

Oops, sorry got confused there. Take that as can't afford the death of another townie at this point. It was early

[Jimmy R]

Well, it's starting to get interesting now. It's not my role to lynch Streeflo, I just found him a little sus on my first read through. If that was my role, I would have built a slow and methodical case on him and stuck at it. As it is, I had a feeling, but I put a little pressure on and am satisfied with how he responded.

I'm still sus of Jenter and am keeping my vote where it is. It took us putting a few votes on him before he brought the posts with content, which could mean anything. Maybe he's scum and he realised the pressure was on and he had to start coming off as pro-town, who knows at this stage.

FOS: Jimmy R

because his posts are making me feel pretty cautious. After some people questioned he vote on Streeflo, he unvoted and has quickly transitioned to a vote on Jenter. I don't think he liked being in the limelight.

You're right, I don't like being in the limelight because it's a waste of time. Not that it has anything to do with moving my vote, which I explained above. I always end up being in the limelight because I post quite a lot, so it's bound to happen.

Still need to hear what a couple of people who haven't been active think.

[Jimmy R]

Soupfly makes some interesting points, but in my eyes, the points he makes suggest that those three (Gator, Niv, Oman) are acting very pro-town. It could easily be a bluff but at the moment, I'm thinking they're probably not scum.

Which means my suspicion still falls on Jenter. I'm also kind of getting the feeling that Soupfly is trying to deflect some attention away from Jenter and on to Gator.

Keeping my vote where it is for now.

[Jimmy R]

Just to add...Jenter is thinking that two of the most pro-town players in the thread are scum? Very sus.

I would urge those who haven't yet voted to read through and think about it, it should be pretty clear. Especially after the developments over the last couple of pages.

[Jimmy R]

So far, Oman is the only player who as far as I can tell has bothered to look through my pbpa of Gator. Nobody (including him) really seems to have adressed any of the points aginst him so far, apart from to some extent Oman. WHY, in your eyes, does gator look town?

I especially want to hear from Jimmy, who seems to have an unwavering belief in Niv , Gator and Oman, and of course from Gator himself. Also I would like to hear from Erg0, Eroto, Haut and Streef, who are really the swing votes in this.

Ok, heres my feelings so far on those counts:

The whole case against Gator seemed to stem from the fact that he was going away and didn't want to be replaced. That's a nothing reason, I wouldn't want to be replaced either, no matter what role I was playing. OK, so its moved on a little from that reason, but the whole thing has its base there and I just don't agree with it.

Oman and Niv have both been acting pro-Town so far. I had my eye on Streeflo but I explained earlier why I moved away from that.

Jenter is acting sus and Soupfly is possibly trying to deflect attention away from Jenter.

Others haven't posted enough for me to have a clear opinion on them yet.

[Jimmy R]

@Jimmy; There's a LOT more to the anti-Gator case than that. He's argument jumped a lot, bandwagoned a lot, and tags allong behind Oman and Niv a lot. Read the pbpa properly.

@Oman; How can you be sure he's not just tagging along and trying to attatch himself to you while not being noticed?

Yep, like I said, it's moved on from there now but that's where it is all based from. I did read it properly, it's all pretty wishy-washy, for lack of a better phrase.

[Jimmy R]

*sigh* OK, again you're both (Jenter and Soupfly) moving attention away from things. This time you BOTH make EXACTLY the same argument, that I'm not reading the thread or responding properly? This is complete nonsense. Just because a post is short and concise, doesn't mean I haven't read, comprehended and then posted.

A loooong, winding, rambling post does not = more thought put into it. You end up waffling on, moving from point to point and not making any sense. Hence the reason why I haven't fully deconstructed Jenters PBPA, it's such a mess of rambling and vague accusations.

If you really want me to and you really want me to make a long post, I will.

Do you want me to claim? I will if that is actually what you want.

Pretty sure thats a scummy thing to say.

Soup put 1 vote on Gator, and didn't even encourage others to follow suit. Baad logic here, 1 vote is not the start of a bandwagon, it was probabaly just a bit of pressure.

Again, nonsense - Vote number one IS the start of a bandwagon, how else do they begin?

You then say this about Gator:

No reason, just an agressive contentless response to soup and a lack of content after being pressured.

Take out the aggressive part and you've just described yourself.

The comes this:

Argument jumping anyone? Gator attatches himself to Niv's argument here.

It does happen, it's not always scummy play. Some people make good points and others are easily persuaded.

Later comes this about Niv:

Blatant defence of Gator. We have some mislynches to us, and GATOR LOOKS SCUMMY. Pretty much everyone agrees. Just baecuse he claims stupidity doesn't mean he's stupid OR innocent.

OK, Soupfly is defending you, are you saying hes Scum? Also, not everyone agrees, hardly anyone agrees. In fact, no-one but you and Soufly agree.

Then finally, this:

If anyone wants me to claim, say so and I will.

That's a really weird statement to make, especially after you've spent the last page focusing on someone else being Scum...

I don't have the time right now to go through it any more, but let me re-iterate my points from above:

I think Jenter is probably Scum.

Soupfly is doing a lot of defending and deflecting, which makes me wonder about him.

Long posts do not mean anyone has better ideas or has put more thought into it. If anything its more difficult to get your points across when you ramble. Clear, concise posting states the facts and your opinions without waffling on or making statements that have nothing to do with the discussion in hand. Add that to the fact that I'm posting a lot more often, so my points tend to come out in short posts spread over time, rather than in one long post like someone who only posts a couple of times a day.

[Jimmy R]

The point I try to make, Jimmy, is that it's not necessariy the individual things that are scummy, it's the repeating of them and the volume of them.

I don't really like the way Jimmys so utterly convinced in Gator's and Niv's innocence.

Where are you, swing voters, and what do you have to say?

I'm not neccesarily 'utterly convinced'. All I'm saying is at this point, they seem pro-Town to me and I'd rather focus efforts elsewhere.

I also think Oman is probably Town, but you left him out...probably because you're trying to insinuate that, Niv, Gator and myself are a trio of Mafia. That's not the case, as I've said above, I have no reason to believe any of them are anything but pro-Town. The same with the absentees.

I'm not certain anyone is Mafia at the moment (Including you) but theres no harm in keeping a little pressure on at this stage.

You're right on one thing though, we need to hear from the others.

[Jimmy R]

(though i can see how some would get frustrated with his damn formatting).

Maybe I did get slightly put off by the formatting, I'll admit to that. I get lots of quick 5 minute breaks between bursts of work, which is why I post frequently but maybe more concisely than you'd like.

Anyway, enough of that. To answer your questions, I'd say it could go either way on defending someone like that.

Personally, I still think Gator is town, so I'm not worried by Niv's defence of him (although he hasn't really stuck up for him that much).

Someone playing like that is probably more likely to get lynched early game because swinging your votes and accusations is something that everyone picks up on and makes you look sus, so in that regard, you were right to point a finger at Gator. However, I think he was genuinely swayed by Niv's opinion to change his vote and nothing more than that.

At the moment, we've only really got 6 people who have posted recently,( which leaves the very real possibility that none of the Mafia are even active at the moment) so it's difficult for us to get anywhere without the others coming in with their views.

[Jimmy R]

Agreeded as well. however, with this as the case i would like to ask those with scum pair predictions how you can format those without full town present?

Cause the scum is probably a trio.

Going for Niv is not a good idea. I agree that he looks townish so far.

Jenter, it might be time for a roleclaim. You're at L-1.

I can see a connection between Jenter and Soupfly though.

I think I see it too.

You've not posted for a bit, Streeflo, any more views on everything thats happened since then?

Thai: You say you think Gator is scum and Jenter is town. I know you said you aren't going to rehash the arguments but what specifically makes you think this?

Mod, can we get a poke on Ergo please and an official VC?

[Jimmy R]

[

Conclusion

I feel that this entire argument is so forced, bloated and inconsistent that I really have to wonder whats up with Niv. Not to mention that he's made zero attempts to respond to the case made by myself in post 251,252. Maybe its time for us to take a closer look at Niv and I'm going to start that with:

Vote=Niv

Some very interesting points.

So Soupfly and Jenter both want to lynch Niv? I'm certainly not advocating lynching for info but if Niv were to be lynched we would definitely gain some valuable insight into who is Town.

I'm going to

Unvote

for now. I'm not convinced that Jenter is scum and I don't feel the need to keep the pressure on anymore as things are developing nicely.

[Jimmy R]

I think Niv is seeing what I'm seeing, that maybe the VI claim was an early "last-ditch" effort to seem town.

I could be wrong on Niv thinking this too, but "you truly can't be this stupid" has the same feeling. Streeflo hit it with the right words, its very OMGUS. Its especially illogical, as Ero said, to have all scum on one wagon.

Yeah, I see what you're saying here. It IS unlikely to have them all on Gator at this point, although it's still a possiblity. After all, there's a precedent for almost any type of play.

I still think gator is probably Town but he's not helping his cause at the moment by flinging all this mud. Might I suggest defending yourself a little more against accusations and worrying less about accusing others when you're at this stage.

I've lost my read on a lot of people now after this latest round of posts and am kind of back to the drawing board with my suspicions.

[Jimmy R]

I don't know if this is a good idea or not but I'm gonna take the plunge, because people are focusing their attention in the wrong places.

Gator IS a Mason and I'm his partner. We're wasting our time focusing on him so can we please look elsewhere.

Going on whats happened, I'd suggest Jenter still, as suspicion mostly falls towards him, Especially since you now all know Gator is pro-Town.

I hope we have a doctor in our ranks now.

[Jimmy R]

We don't need a cop to check Gator. He's an innocent Mason with me and we win with the Town. He hasn't played scummily really, just made a few mistakes.

I didn't really want it to come to this but my hand has been forced somewhat.

You're still erring towards a Gator lynch, Jenter? Then I'm pretty sure you're not Town then.

I don't think I've doen anything to make anyone think I'm anything other than Pro-Town. The only reason anyone ever suspected me was because of my defence of Gator, which is obvious why now. I'd suggest everyone who is pro-Town trusts me and moves their vote from Gator...Probably to Jenter.

[Jimmy R]

You bring up an interesting point, Ero. Oman seems a little too keen to lynch innocents 'for info' for my liking.

[Jimmy R]

Just to confirm, Jenter, you're claiming you win with Town as well?

[Jimmy R]

Yeah, I didn't want to claim and I realise it leaves me open to NK but it was a last ditch attempt to stop folks from lynching Gator so I felt I had to. Still hoping we have a Doc in the game.

Valid points re: Oman and TBS. Going to have a re-read now. TBS, do you have anythiing to say about this?

[Jimmy R]

Okay, I see your point. Except now its void, cause we'll be on the lookout.

Is that a little Freudian slip there, Oman?

We'll be on the look out = Mafia will be on the lookout?

[Jimmy R]

Unvote

Here's what I'm thinking at the moment - though I'm far from sure enough to vote right now.

Erg0 - No idea, need to see more action from him
Erotomachia - Seems pretty Pro-town to me
Gatorguy91 - Pro-town
Jenter Brolincani - Pro-town
Jimmy R - Pro-town
Niv - Undecided
Oman - I thought he was pro-town but that's slipped back to undecided
soupfly - Undecided, I think he's probably town
Streeflo - Undecided, I thought he was scum earlier but I was a little hasty
ThaiBoxerShorts - Possibly scum, need to see more posts
Haut Boy - Undecided, need to see more of him

All in all, I think we've been progressing well enough, I have a picture in my head of who is town and I've narrowed who I think could be scum down.

At the moment I'm leaning towards Niv for my vote but that could change depending on what (if anything) the less active folks have to say when they chime in.

Agree that we shouldn't be directing Jenter. Do your own thing Jenter, to keep it secret. Just make sure you pick someone scummy!

[Jimmy R]

Yeah, I can definitely see Niv as Scum at the moment. There's still too few active people for us to be sure though, especially in a smaller 12 player game

mod, can we get a few prods here please?

[Jimmy R]

They are my top 3 scummiest players right now.

I'd have to agree with that at the moment. Niv definitely hopped on the bandwagon without much reasoning.

Like you say Oman has made a few bad calls, but then again, everyone does that at some point, doesn't neccesarily make him Scum.

TBS was flying under the radar but has come in and straight away voted for Oman. If I was sure Oman was Town, I would probably then think TBS was Scum...but I'm not 100% on Oman yet.

Will wait for the official VC, but I'm not against a Niv lynch at the moment.

[Jimmy R]

Very interesting point that, Ero..about who is voting for Oman with you.

I'm going to go ahead and

Vote Niv

as we seem mostly in agreement and I'm pretty happy with that.

That puts him at -1, I believe.

[Jimmy R]

Vote for who you think is mafia and trust Jenter to do the right thing.

This is the only way to go. We seem to be pretty much agreed on Niv, so lets lynch him today, let Jenter kill someone scummy looking tonight and see where we stand tomorrow.

[Jimmy R]

unvote/

Should I hammer or should we wait for some people to check in first?

I'm happy for you to do it, since we thought we'd already hammered anwyay.

[Jimmy R]

But I am not, I Really want to hear from Haut boy first. I'd like you to eventually hammer, but

unvote

to make sure.

Why? You voted for Niv before and even thought you were hammering him yourself. What can one person who has made no contriubtion so far have to say that will change everyones opinions?

I'm not that eager to lynch really but this is just an unneccesary holdup.

[Jimmy R]

I'm not willing to change my vote to Oman yet, sticking with Niv.

Which means we wait, I guess...

[Jimmy R]

Yup, I don't think we have a Doc. Unless the Doc gambled on scum not making the obvious move in killing Jenter and protected myself or Gator.

I think TBS is the next logical choice...He needs to chip in and contribute soon.

[Jimmy R]

Alright then, lets see if he comes out.

vote ThaiBoxerShorts

[Jimmy R]

Unvote

Streeflo, Jimmy: Which of you is scum? Or is it both?

What are you on about? I'm a mason...TBS has lurked this whole game, it's time he had some input.

[Jimmy R]

Yeah...unless any of the remaining folks haven't been around, I'm leaning towards TBS being scum.

[Jimmy R]

I think we lost.

Or hes going to come up as scum and this is your attempt to look innocent because you know that

[Jimmy R]

Can we get another prod or Haut Boy or a replacement? We really need to look at him now...

[Jimmy R]

Looking at who

wasn't

or at least who seemed reulctant to be on the TBS bandwagon would be very interesting.

[Jimmy R]

Interesting.

I'm leaning towards Ero or Haut Boy - if only by process of elimination.

[Jimmy R]

Don't think we can go anywhere without replacing Haut Boy - it's to risky to just lynch a lurker at this stage.

[Jimmy R]

we're kinda screwed with Haut Boy because even with a replacement, what would we get out of the new person in such a short period of time. they would have to totally mess up in order to give away themselves if they are scum. we should have called for a replacement earlier.

one question: if haut boy was scum and hasn't posted on the site since the 11th, then wouldn't night 2 have lasted much longer? TBS was dead so that would have left two scum to vote. if hautboy was scum and didn't submit his vote (due to being away) then it should have taken longer to complete the night phase (due to initial wait and then prodding by mod to vote) and the mod probably would have sought a replacement. this would probably indicate that haut boy isn't really scum. does this make sense to anybody?

Yeah - 2 good points really. The 2nd one is defintely something to consider if we don't end up getting much more info.

[Jimmy R]

Honestly, right now I'm really not sure.

I think Haut Boy is possibly scum but maybe we should leave that alone for now since we have no content from him recently and like someone mentioned, any replacement isn't going to give us much unless they really slip up.

So maybe we should focus on who the other scum is? But saying that, I really have no idea who the other person could be.

At the moment I suppose the best lynch is Haut Boy, but it's a real gamble at lylo...

[Jimmy R]

He's in no imminent danger of being lynched and I'd rather maintain the pressure than reduce it.

Yeah, the time for a quicklynch has passed, it's not going to happen soon I don't think.

We might as well have a claim out of Shanba at this stage, although I'm pretty sure there's no roles left.

He's not

really

got that much to defend against, it's mostly absenteeism which has brought on all the pressure so I'd like to hear who his main suspects are after reading, might throw some fresh insight into the mix.

[Jimmy R]

I'm still not 100% about this but I'm feeling a little under pressure so here's what I'm thinking right now:

Erg0

I see what Soupfly is saying and it makes some sense. I'm still not convinced about his reasons for voting for Haut Boy/Shanba..he said he found him more scummy than Streeflo and Ero, which isn't a great reason as I don't think any of those 3 have been that scummy.

Erotomachia

Doesn't think Shanba is scum, which I'm leaning towards as well. If it wasn't lylo we'd get good info from lynching Ero based on his past posts, but we can't do that now obviously

soupfly

Pushing for an Ergo lynch pretty strongly now. I agree that Ergo's actions towards Shanba could be construed as going for an oppurtunistic lynch but I'm not totally convinced yet. He also seems really keen for my input as confirmed town, which I could understand but it could also be a scum ploy to seem innocent (a bit WIFOM, I know)

Streeflo

Im finding it difficult to take a stand on Streeflo, he's not done anything too controversial which makes me think town or scum flying under the radar...I really don't know here.

Shanba

I think he's done quite well since coming in. I have to admit I was getting swayed towards a Haut Boy lynch but I think that's probably the wrong thing to do now.

[Jimmy R]

Ok I had another little re-read and I think I'm marking Streeflo down as town now.

TBS ony ever voted for 4 people:

Jenter: Town
Oman: Town
Gator: Town
Streeflo: ???

Seems like he was playing a pretty simple game and just trying to lynch townies. Add this to Streeflo's general play and I'm marking him down as town for now along with myself.

This reduces my suspect list to:

Ergo
Ero
Soupfly
Shanba

In no particular order...I'm going to have a think and do a little more reading over the weekend and hopefully come back with a vote that I'm confident with on Monday.

[Jimmy R]

Nobody else seems to have built much of a case at this point, and seems more interested in waiting around for Haut Boy's replacement to show up while happily ignoring the previous two days' worth of evidence, which (in my opinion) will be more reliable than anything we get from a replacement.

That's a valid point

I'm going to

vote Shanba

I realise this puts him at -1 but after reading again (more the early posts) I think this is our best bet.

I'm probably out til past the deadline now, been really busy lately and I'm away for the weekend now.

[Jimmy R]

Not gone yet, thought it was Friday yesterday, heh.

Anyway,

Vote Soupfly

Seems like the best idea today. I

think

I believe Ero, will be very interesting to see what happens tonight

if

Soupfly is not the remaining scum.