Mini 436 - Game over - Mafia wins with no casualties!

[Sir Tornado]

I finally managed to read everything in this seemingly crazy game! Currently making notes on each player. Expect something soon.

[Sir Tornado]

Ok, I'll drag things a bit back to day 1, shall I?

Mitzef:

I'm not sure what to think of snichkin's "I just want to prove a point" tatic, so I don't think it's worthwhile to vote him.

that is all.

and

-I don't like snichkin's "I'm trying to prove a point" attitude, but it seems more pro-town to me then scummy
<snip>
that is all.

followed by:

well, now that we are all getting along, should we vote for snichkin and see what happens? he seems to be the one that is tingling people's scumdars.

Why did you ask for snichkin bandwagon when you felt, as you said before that he was not scummy?

You follow this by:

Unvote Vote: Snichkin

for reasons mentioned in StallingChamps post 66 (rule breaking is a definate no no in my books).

I disagree with ABR's reason to vote vanDamien, and would rather wait for snichkin's reaction to this vote.

In which you basically agreed with what SC said, something you did not agree with a few posts back.

Then there is this:

- There is nothing about Rampage that is very scummy, so stop trying to make a bandwagon on him. ok? ok.
<snip>
That is all.

followed by:

I didn't understand vanDamien's reasoning at first, so thanks for clearing it up. This is an obvious contridiction, and I find it hard to believe a pro-town player would make this error. I would really like to hear an explaination from snichkin, but Albert is more scummy in my books and so...

Unvote Vote: Albert B. Rampage

You voted ABR for, basically voting snichkin,

the same person you were voting for

Why?

[Sir Tornado]

A part of my notes about Miztef's actions on Page 5, 6 and 7 leading upto and immediately after ABR's claim

Page 5

19. Agrees with Top Hat about HK. IGMEOY HK

Page 6

20. Disagrees with Top Hat about HK and Ryan being scum buddies. IGMEOY Tophat.
21. Doesn't like HK's lack of posts, but not going to lynch her over it.
22. Agrees with Volkan about ABR not making sense.
23. Agrees with VD regarding ABR's defence of his behavior being awful.
24. More comments on ABR

Page 7

25. Says he feels ABR is scum due to his play, but has a gut feeling ABR is town. Keeps his vote.
26. Unvotes ABR following his Psychopath claim.
27. Lays down his proposal for ABR
28. Elaborates on his plot for ABR. Calls TopHat suspicious for not agreeing.

In the begining, you see IGMEOY being thrown about. First, he agrees with TopHat that HK might be scum. So, IGMEOY on HK. Then, TopHat posts his theory of Ryan and HK being scum because Ryan devoted more lines to HK than her contents would merit. So, IGMEOY TopHat.

Then, he says (although he is still supposed to have one eye ok HK) that he wouldn't lynch her for her lack of posts (he had agreed with TH and then disagreed with him on her scuminess in his last two posts.)

Then, a couple of posts about ABR, where he agrees with Volkan and VD that ABR isn't playing like a townie. This is followed by this:

Your strategy in this game is just insane Rampage. I want to believe your scum due to the tells, but my gut tells me your pro-town. This just frustrates me alot, and it helps me little to discern who the scum may be.

I'm going to have to keep my vote on you because I dislike the way your playing, and I don't think it should be tolerated as a pro-town way of playing.

Had I been in the game at that time, I would have suspected Miztef and ABR being scumbuddies. However, now that I have the benifit of hindsight, I think it is likely that Miztef knew ABR was innocent, and that people wanted to lynch him. So, this is his way of saying: "I am not too sure whether he is a scum, but I am still keeping my vote on him".

And then, you have his plan:

We wait till day 2. If he is scum, then he is very unlikely to have been NKed, if he is not then hopefully a doc or something saves him. Assuming he survives the night, we lynch him day 2, If what he states is precisely true, we should have the most suspious person be forced to hammer him, or lynch them instead. That way, both alberts kills can be used to our advantage. If he's scum, he dies anyway.

More on this in just a minute.

Now TopHat states his objections to the plan. So, what does Miztef do? Calls TopHat suspicioust! It seems that Miztef was throwing IGMEOYs or suspicions on everyone who disagreed with him at that point.

Now, his proposal for ABR:

Here, he is saying:

1) If ABR is a scum, then he is unlikely to have been NKed.
2) If not, then Doc or something would have protected him.
3) If he survives, lynch him on day 2, with most suspicious person made to hammer him.

After objections from TopHat, he elaborates even more:

4) It's better to be lynched although NK would be fine.

Now, here are the obvious flaws in the reasoning of the ABR proposal:

a. He says that if he is not NKed then he is probably scum. WIFOM

b. If he is not scum, then Doc should protect him. But how is the doc supposed to know whether ABR is scum or not? (ABR's identity was not revealed at that point). Since the Doc doesn't know, the Doc thus, wastes his protection on ABR for N1. So, in short the scum know who the doc is protecting, so they can go and kill someone else with 100% certainty.

c. If he survives (since he is asking for doc protection on ABR he WILL survive) then he should be lynched on day 2. This means that the scum do not have to be in trouble of being lynched on day 2. So, if ABR is lying about his claim, the scum win the game, or force LYLO situation on D3.

d. He says a NK on ABR is fine. But how is ABR going to be NKed when he is supposed to have Doc protection?

[Sir Tornado]

Vandamien was voting for u when he died, so it's possible you, or your scumbuddies, felt he could convince the town today to lynch you, so you had to be rid of him.

WIFOM

[Sir Tornado]

Sir torando, its a valid point. It's an advantage to the scum to be rid of someone who is helping the town. Vandamien, from my perspective, is the only person who could have possibly been voting for scum, and the scum killed him. Therefore, scum would be getting an advantage by killing him over other players.

That is again highly WIFOM. I usually find that many of the discussions associated with trying to accuse someone of being the scum are WIFOMic when someone is so overtly against someone. It is easy for the real Mafia to kill someone like that and use it to get a mislynch the next day.

I am not saying that Ryan cannot be scum. What I am saying is, that we can't consider the Night Kill as the evidence to find scum, especially when the NKee was so antagonistic towards the person you are accusing of being the scum. It can easily be a set up, a way to make that person look even more scummier. Still, I'll have my eye on both you as well as Ryan. One of you is, most probably a scum.

[Sir Tornado]

If the scum were to hammer today, it would dash all hopes of us winning. However, it would also give the scum a 50:50 chance of a draw based on whether they are able to NK the vig. Their chances of winning, hence, are enhanced by not hammering today but lynching a townie as normal because that would make the vig more likely to misdirect his NK and, thus, decreasing the likelihood of a 2:2 arising where it pretty much comes down to a 50:50.

Actually, it is more than a 50-50 chance of winning for the scum. If we lynch a townie today, we have 3-3 split. At this point, the scum will have 2 Nights to NK the Vig. If they choose randomly, they get 33% chance of hitting the scum first Night, and then if they fail, 50% the second night, which gives them roughly a 66% chance of winning the game without the Vig hitting his target incorrectly.

The Vig on the other hand has to hit the scum on 2 consecutive nights. That is he has something like 16% chance (if done randomly). So, 66% of 16% of chance has the scum winning even if Vig gets his targets right (comes to somewhere around 10.33%) and 84% chance of scum winning by the Vig messing up a NK and hits a townie. It boils down to 94% over all chance of a scum victory if we mis lynch. That is almost a certainty.

PS: It has been a couple of years since I studied probability... might have got some numbers wrong. Please correct me if you spot any mistake there.

[Sir Tornado]

I am reading this thread, yes.

[Sir Tornado]

I have already explained my views on Mitzef on D2, to which he replied very unsatisfactorily. (I am not a big fan of "I make mistakes" argument) I think he is quite likely to be scum.

It would be a shame if Miz would have had to be replaced, because replacements always tend to get away with a lot of things that the original player won't be able to, and they are not able to (or, are not required to) explain their predecessor's play.

I do not like d3sisted asking =Confused= whether she is the Vig or not. That is very bad play, IMO. Vollkan and I did a few numbers a couple of weeks ago, check them out to know exactly why.

[Sir Tornado]

@SirTornado: I’m prying because I am still convinced that Sir Tornado or =Confused= is the SK. I’ve considered the possibility that the two factions targeted the same townie, but that just doesn’t fly with me.
In another thread, when someone got NKed by two separate groups, the Mod gave two methods of death: shot AND stabbed. I was wondering if someone (maybe even Mod) could clarify whether the inclusion of this information compulsory?

One more thing: In post 707, VD voted ryan. Next day, VD is dead. Coincidence?

At the start of D2, both the kills were "shot"... no one was stabbed or anything other happened... and, even if both the scum and SK target the same person, it is totally depends upon the mod how the death scene is written (although, generally, mods write "shot twice", or "shot and stabbed" or "shot and eaten", etc)

Why are you so convinced there is a SK and not a Vig?

[Sir Tornado]

Sigh...

FOS: ATA (formerly Mitzef)

We are at LyLo. You can't carry past grudges into this game.

[Sir Tornado]

I have reread d3sisted's accusations against ATA... I think they make a lot of sense. Add to that his vote against me, it gets very scummy.

I am going to upgrade my FOS to...

Vote: Adam The Amazing

Claim please.

[Sir Tornado]

WTF? Why the hammer??? Shouldn't he have got a chance to claim first?

Dammit!

[Sir Tornado]

Brilliant! I can now IC

4 wins out of 4 as mafia...

[Sir Tornado]

... although I will admit that I had to do absolutely nothing than hang in there to get this scumbag win... kuddos to Ryan and Vollkan.

[Sir Tornado]

Most Valuable Player...

It's basically the Americanised version of "Man of the match"

[Sir Tornado]

I think this game was heavily tilted in the side of the mafia, because:

1) GF was unNKable
2) Mafia were allowed to talk during the day time as well as during the night time.

The last point meant that me and Ryan could basically co-ordinate the quick lynch of Adam The Amazing. Tough on the town.

[Sir Tornado]

Props go out as well to Albert B. Rampage, who (in my opinion at least) played brilliantly with his little gambit. Whether he used it offensively or defensively I do not know; nonetheless, it greatly alarmed the Mafia and forced them to rapidly unvote Rampage. The reasoning is, if Rampage gets lynched, a scum risks three possibilities of getting NKed. Hence, anyone mafia would push for Rampage to get lynched D2 instead of D1 (just so that mafia could NK before he gets lynched... and sure enough, Albert got lynched N2). This is what I alluded to in the previous post.

Funnily enough, he was vigged...

Haha get real, ST, you expect us to believe that was authentic?

Not exactly... but I have gotten out of bigger holes before... and everyone else would have been suspicious of you to some extent... or so I hoped.

My main concern was that there was a SK instead of a Vig and he was unNKable. That would have been a nightmare.

[Sir Tornado]

Even though was wrong, if I had taken like 10 more seconds thinking about it I might've gone for someone else and we might've had a chance to keep going even if I got NKd. Oh, well.

Not really. There was absolutely no way for you to win this game after ATA lynch... not even draw it because of Ryan's immunity. All you could have done is to hit me and Vollkan on 2 successive nights, and hoped you did not get hit on either of them, and gone to the endgame with Ryan... which is when you would have lost due to Ryan's immunity.

[Sir Tornado]

ATA... if you (or anyone else) are going to follow that strategy for THAT reasoning, then I am simply going to /out from all your games.