Mini 470 - Some Guys Are Trying To Kill You (done)

[Shanba]

Hi guys. Read through the whole thread, and need some time to digest it. I note that I'm about to be lynched and am pretty unhappy about that, as you can imagine. I need to get my thoughts in order cause it's midnight here, so I'll post something useful tomorrow.

[Shanba]

OK. Erotomachia I'm pretty sure is townie. His obstinacy that I am town makes no sense in a lylo situation when he could win simply by voting me off. I just don't see it as a valid scum move.

Erg0 and Streeflo I could go either way on. I'm almost certain at least one of them is scum, or I would be dead now and town would have lost, but I'm having a hard time workng out which one it is, as both have given me a townie vibe at some stage in the game. If I was forced to pick, I would choose Streeflo, for although I really liked his reaction to the mason claims and found it quite genuine Erg0 has played overall a much more solid game.

Jimmy R is almost certainly town. Nuff said.

Geh. Soupfly might not. If Soupfly is scum, I could see Erg0 as his scumbuddy:

Agreed. The soupfly thing has more or less petered out, based (I believe) n the fact that his behaviour has improved. Oman, on the other hand...

Vote: Oman

Zakk's vote was little oddly timed, too -

FoS: Zakk

This post rings oddly to me, and I could see it as early game distancing. This little gem also popped out at me as I was reading his posts:

ThaiBoxerShorts: mild suspicion. He's posting enough to appear active but doing everything possible to blend in and not rock the boat. Just a gut feeling ATM and certainly not grounds for a lynching but will keep an eye on him.

scum often like to express mild suspicion of each other while voting someone else. It gives them something to point back to later. Especially given he later drops that suspicion here:

Well, everything that Jenter wrote is pretty sound IMO. I think that in large part the Jenter bandwagon is fabricated and those voting for him certainly look suspicious in my eyes. It may be that he's scum but not based on the arguments presented so far.

I'm leaning towards a Gator vote at the moment.

Still not much of a feel on Streetflo, Haut Boy or Jimmy R. Thai is off of my suspicion list as he's really not done anything scummy yet.

Finally, this post reinforces that vibe, given that TBS was about to be lynched. It reads very much as an attempt to carefully protect TBS.

At this point my suspicion is on:

Thaiboxershorts and Streetflo

My analysis on 3 votes for TBS

Hammer is 5 votes. Thaiboxershorts had 3 votes on him but mafia did not do a quick hammer. I believe Jimmy to be town so that would mean that there are two scenarios:

1) If Thaiboxershorts is town then Streetflo and ErgO are both scum. If either Streetflo or ErgO were also town then coupled with Jimmy's town vote that would be enough for a quick hammer, which hasn't happened (assuming that people have been visiting site which I assume that Mafia are doing since they probably controlled length of night phase)

2) If Thaiboxershorts is Scum then there's not much we can read on anybody.

Based on this, lynching TBS (if he's scum) will not really give us any further info. Lynching Streetflo or ErgO would establish a link with the other.

So the big question is, just how guilty do you guys really think that TBS is?

He only actually hammers TBS when it's a lost cause.

Now, as far as defence goes, there's not a whole lot I can say. However, I will say I feel the case on me is overblown. Lurking =/= a scumtell. Being unable to post can happen to both town and scum. Posting contentless posts is a different matter, but in the posts Haut Boy made there was plenty of content.

Erg0/Soupfly is the most likely scumpair in my opinion, followed by Soupfly/Streeflo. I think a Streeflo/Erg0 scumpair is fairly unlikely, tbh, as I don't see them both jumping on the same townie. Eroto, as I said earlier, I think is highly unlikely to be scum.

Vote: Ergo, FoS: Soupfly, Streeflo

.

[Shanba]

Hrm. I missed that. That's what I get for reading late at night, I suppose. But yes, that does make you drop down my scumlist somewhat. Which as my vote for Erg0 was based on a connection to you, drives Streeflo back up to the top of my scumlist.

As for the quote, you misread my post. That line of mine was referring to the quote below it.

[Shanba]

EBWOP:
Actually, this gives me womewhat of a dilemna, as it makes it fairly likely one of the scum is playing less than optimally.

Unvote

for now. I'll have to go back and see the likelihood of Erotomachia pairings.

Erotomachia/Soupfly is now an impossible combination, as they would have voted me for a win already. If one turns up scum, the other cannot be.

[Shanba]

I'm struggling to see how your post above led you to the conclusion that you should vote for me...

Actually, it was a fairly tough decision. Soupfly was my top suspect, however I know that either you or Streeflo had to be scum. Therefore my vote was always going to be on one of you. Soupfly/Erg0 seemed more likely than Streeflo/Soupfly or Streeflo/Erg0 so I ended up voting for you. Note when Soupfly brought up evidence showing that I was wrong in my assumption that scum were playing optimally based on the game situation, I unvoted you.

[Shanba]

If I was forced to pick, I would choose Streeflo, for although I really liked his reaction to the mason claims and found it quite genuine Erg0 has played overall a much more solid game.

Jimmy R is almost certainly town. Nuff said.

Geh. Soupfly might not.

...<snip>...

Vote: Ergo, FoS: Soupfly, Streeflo

.

You say I'm scummier than Erg0, claim he played an overall solid game, and then say that SoupFly might not be town.
YET your vote is on Erg0?

Explained already.

I also don't like the way you assume Erotomachia is town just because he does not think you're scum right now. Opposite OMGUS?

Defending me would be sub-optimal scum play from Eroto right now when I would be a very easy mislynch indeed. Same applies to Soupfly. So would having both scum jumping on one after another. Which means that one or both of the scum is playing sub-optimally, so I can no longer clear Erotomachia in my mind.

So shanba, after soupfly told you that he also does not think you're scum (a point which you seemed to have missed), what is your current list of suspicions? I can't tell from the last post.

Yes I missed it. Honestly, by the end of my readthrough I had been reduced to skimming. It had been approaching midnight and I was tired, and not really paying close attention. Honestly, what good would it do me to lie about somthing like that?

I never got round to looking at Eroto's play after clearing him. That's my next task.

[Shanba]

If I was forced to pick, I would choose Streeflo, for although I really liked his reaction to the mason claims and found it quite genuine Erg0 has played overall a much more solid game.

Jimmy R is almost certainly town. Nuff said.

Geh. Soupfly might not.

...<snip>...

Vote: Ergo, FoS: Soupfly, Streeflo

.

You say I'm scummier than Erg0, claim he played an overall solid game, and then say that SoupFly might not be town.
YET your vote is on Erg0?

Explained already.

I also don't like the way you assume Erotomachia is town just because he does not think you're scum right now. Opposite OMGUS?

Defending me would be sub-optimal scum play from Eroto right now when I would be a very easy mislynch indeed. Same applies to Soupfly. So would having both scum jumping on one after another. Which means that one or both of the scum is playing sub-optimally, so I can no longer clear Erotomachia in my mind.

So shanba, after soupfly told you that he also does not think you're scum (a point which you seemed to have missed), what is your current list of suspicions? I can't tell from the last post.

Yes I missed it. Honestly, by the end of my readthrough I had been reduced to skimming. It had been approaching midnight and I was tired, and not really paying close attention. Honestly, what good would it do me to lie about somthing like that?

I never got round to looking at Eroto's play after clearing him. That's my next task.

[Shanba]

Ok. I re-read through Erotomachia's posts.

Early on I get a bit of a "sit on the sidelines" vibe from him which made me feel that he might be scum. Then, however, I came across this post:

I think we lost.

This, to me, fairly heavily indicates townie. It reminds me of when sometimes a townie thinks he has been lynched then says "bah. go town." I've never yet seen a scum do that.

Also, looking further on, his suspicions align with mine to a remarkable degree. I don't think an Eroto/Erg0 partnership makes sense, Eroto/Streeflo is marginal, Erot/Shanba is not something I nee to worry about and Eroto/soupfly is impossible.

So that leaves me back where I started.

Vote: erg0

[Shanba]

Ok, my problem with Shanba: all of those arguments are based on the assumption that you're town. You may know that, but nobody else does. Your reasons for Eroto being town are:

1. His "I think we lost" post (which I think is a scumtell, or at best a null tell - this is a massive reach on your part)
2. The fact that he's not your scumbuddy (which only you and he know for sure, so we can't be expected to just take your word for it)

What I explained were my reasons for thinking he was town. Obviously I can't expect you to take the fact that he didn't vote me as confirmation of his townieness it was one of the things that factored in my thought process as a townie on who to lynch.

However, with regards to point one, I believe you are completely and utterly wrong. Why would it be a scumtell? I've explained that it's the sort of behaviour I would expect from a townie and all you have stated is "no it's not, it's a scumtell". I'm speaking from personal experience here, so if you wish to refute my point you will ahve to provide me with something a little stronger.

There seems to be a common misconception that I voted for Shanba/Haut Boy without reason, and/or that I wanted to speedlynch him. On the contrary, I was reasonably certain that he was scum, and have become more certain of that as a result of the voting patterns since then. Initially I wanted to apply some pressure and gauge reactions, and as a result of those reactions I've decided to keep my vote where it is. If you want a good case against Eroto/Shanba then look at posts 587, 588, 594, 605 and 609. Very few of these points have been adequately addressed by anybody today.

Shanba: if you're planning on trying to get me lynched you may want to try making a case against me other than "he has to be scum because I'm not".

Confirm Vote: Shanba

Actually, I haven't got round to really laying down any cases yet, so far all I have said is defence and my view of the game. Mostly because I am reasonably certain that if you get me lynched today I will lose.

Adressing your points raised in earlier posts in a bit.

[Shanba]

Notes on TBS, isolating his posts and focusing on his behaviour towards other players:

0. Random vote soupfly

1. Minor attack soupfly

2. Unvote in face of wagon on soupfly

3. Doesn't want to vote Langley (Jimmy), throw-in comment on Zakk (Haut Boy)

4. Thinks either Gator or soupfly is scum (prefers Gator)

6. Vote Langley (Jimmy) for lurking + lack of substance

7. IGMEOY Zakk (Haut Boy) for much the same reason

9. Distances from soupfly wagon

10. Puts Gator second on scum list, suspicion of Langley (Jimmy), Zakk (Haut Boy), ok with Oman, Jenter, soupfly

11. Again distancing from soupfly wagon. Vote Gator

14. Much the same as 11, not suspicious of Streeflo

16. IGMEOY Oman for townie claim

20. Pushes for Gator's mason buddy to claim

23. Withdraws plan due to flawed reasoning (caught in a gambit?)

25. IGMEOY Oman, mild suspicions

26. Unvote, FOS Oman

29. Vote Oman (4th vote on fast wagon)

Conclusions in a second.

Breakdown by player:

Erotomachia - barely mentioned by TBS, answered a question from him at one point but that's it.

Jimmy R (Langley) - catches a vote for lurking and posting little substance.

soupfly - initially looks like TBS is distancing from him, but later comments where TBS disowns the wagon seem to indicate that he didn't want to be implicated in wagoning a townie.

Streeflo - also barely mentioned.

Haut Boy - looks suspicious because TBS is soft on his lurking and lack of substance while voting Langley (Jimmy R) for the same.

Based on that I'm thinking that the suspect list is narrowed to Haut Boy, Erotomachia and Streeflo, with Haut Boy firmly in the top spot. I'm going to do another analysis of posts by other players regarding TBS, which I expect will be illuminating.

Ok. This is bizarre, frankly. You raised one point against me in TBS' posts:

I really don't like Langley and Zakk's long absences followed by short, substance-lacking posts and (at least as far as I can tell) random votes.

My current vote stays on Langley, because he has the extra strike of being active in other threads while neglecting this one. A bit metagamey, perhaps, but it's suspicious.

And in the meantime, IGMEOY Zakk.

and this (partially quoted, for length reasons) post:

I remain suspicious of Langley and Zakk, not because of their inactivity, but because of what little they have posted. Substanceless posts and apparently-random votes with no explanation and no follow up. Seems pretty scummy.

Now, your argument is that he is softer on my predecessors lurking than on Langley's. Well, yes, I can see that, however he brings up a reason for why he suspects Langley's lurking more than mine. I can see why you might see that as a connection, but for it instantly to catapult me to your top suspect is frankly ridiculous, as the only real difference between his stance on me and Langley is that Langley was posting iin other games whereas zakk wasn't. What makes this out of the ordinary enough for you to take it as such a major scumtell against me?

Having flicked through Haut Boy's posts I'm still putting him at the top of my list. Pretty much everyone he expressed suspicion of has turned out to be a townie, with the exception being soupfly, who I like as a townie for the reasons stated earlier. He hasn't posted on site since the 11th, so his stance on the Day 2 vote is more or less irrelevant since he appears not to have been here for it.

I agree that he needs to be replaced, so we can at least get a claim out of him. It would take something big to stop me from voting for him, though.

So the second point in your case against me amounts to Haut Boy being wrong about his suspicions. I don't get how you cleared Soupfly (seriously, read his interactions with TBS end of day1/day2), but that's beside the point. Townies suspect townies. If a townie is playing legitimately scummy, and they turn up town, was it an anti-town move to suspect them? If you wish to pin this against me, put the effort in to at least say what you believe was scummy about Haut Boy's suspicions.

Interesting theory - so you're saying that if Haut Boy were scum then there'd be one person (his scumbuddy) defending him or at least trying to prevent him from being lynched.

Isn't that what

you're

doing?

This isn't really a point against me, and I don't get what I'm supposed to respond to here.


The other post you mentioned is just a re-iteration of the same things.

So your case boils down to an interpretation of one of TBS' suspicions and a general statement of "this is scummy". It's ridiculous, and the fact that you are voting me for it makes me more confident that my choice to vote you is the correct one.

[Shanba]

Also, just to clear something up:

Ok. I re-read through Erotomachia's posts.

Early on I get a bit of a "sit on the sidelines" vibe from him which made me feel that he might be scum. Then, however, I came across this post:

I think we lost.

This, to me, fairly heavily indicates townie. It reminds me of when sometimes a townie thinks he has been lynched then says "bah. go town." I've never yet seen a scum do that.

Ok, my problem with Shanba: all of those arguments are based on the assumption that you're town. You may know that, but nobody else does. Your reasons for Eroto being town are:

1. His "I think we lost" post (which I think is a scumtell, or at best a null tell - this is a massive reach on your part)
2. The fact that he's not your scumbuddy (which only you and he know for sure, so we can't be expected to just take your word for it)

What I explained were my reasons for thinking he was town. Obviously I can't expect you to take the fact that he didn't vote me as confirmation of his townieness it was one of the things that factored in my thought process as a townie on who to lynch.

However, with regards to point one, I believe you are completely and utterly wrong. Why would it be a scumtell? I've explained that it's the sort of behaviour I would expect from a townie and all you have stated is "no it's not, it's a scumtell". I'm speaking from personal experience here, so if you wish to refute my point you will ahve to provide me with something a little stronger.

You compare Eroto's post with a "bah" post by a lynched townie, but this is not a valid comparison. A "bah" post comes after the townie is dead and will have their alignment confirmed. They have no further stake in the game and no reason to be anything other than honest, since the facts will soon be revealed anyway. They are also fully aware of what just happened, because they know their own alignment.

None of these points is true of Eroto in this situation. If you want to speak about comparable situations, I have seen scum place a vote on another scum after they're lynched to try and make themselves look better. I've seen scum say "I think we just lynched a townie" after just that has happened because they want to look like they're dismayed.

That's

why I think this is a scumtell. Even if you disagree, you have to agree that it would be completely WIFOM to say it was a town tell.

No, I disagree. It is analogous to the original situation because it was Lylo, therefore any mislynch would mean the game is over and the remaining players would have no stake in the game.

Also, your two last situations are not comparable. The second one is a scumtell because it indicates the scum has more information than the town, not because he is trying to look dismayed. The first one is a scumtell because is bussing a scumbuddy late (in this case, very late), indicating an unwillingness to lynch scum until the deed is done, which makes it different to the Erotomachia post.

Erotomachia's post could have been written by scum, yes. But it screams to me a town mindset. Scum in that situation would already be planning the next day, and I would take a "ok, let's lynch so-and-so tomorrow" post in that situation to be a scumtell. That type of remark wouldn't even occur to most scum, as it's completely outside of their mindset. Some people might pull it off, but it indicates town pretty heavily to me.

[Shanba]

Those two examples aren't meant to be comparable to each other, they're meant to be comparable to this game. My point is that scum will often do or say things after the lynch to try and appear pro-town, and that these things can take many forms. If every scum did the same thing after a lynch then it would be pretty easy to spot.

I was comparing them to the game, i.e the erotomachia thing. I am aware that scum will often do the sort of things you mentioned, but they are not the same as what Eroto did and not really comparable.

And you're missing (or ignoring) the other point of difference that I mentioned between your example and what happened here - the lynched townie in your example knows for a fact that a townie has just been lynched, and that the game is over for them. Eroto did not know this (unless he's scum), so there was no basis for a "bah" post. Any speculation on his state of mind is just that - speculation. I could equally say that it reads to me like scum who is trying to come off as a dismayed townie, and you can't prove me wrong. Hence, null tell (though I still find posts like that scummy based on experience).

OK, well I did address it, but wrongly, because I didn't quite understand what you are getting at.
A townie would have had no incentive to lie about that anyway. Whether a townie made a post like Erotomachia made or like whether a townie made a "bah" post when he wasn't lynched, he's not lying about it. It is, therefore, irrelevant whether or not the townie

knows

the game is over for him, because his motives are the same either way. Which means your argument boil down to "well a scum could do it too". Yes, I accept that. But I find it unlikely, because it is completely unintuitive to a scum mindset.

You find such posts scummy based on experience. OK. Show me. I'm working mostly on theory here, so if you've seen something that counteracts my theory, I would like to know.

[Shanba]

Can we stop arguing over Erotomachia's twilight comment and get on with the game?
It's generating a lot of white noise, and that itself is enough to convince me that it is

still

a null tell.

Erg0, if you want craplogic, here is a fine example. Why would whether or not it generates white noise make it a null tell?

[Shanba]

A number of people have said they don't buy my case, but I'm definitely not seeing anything more convincing. I've also yet to find a better scumfinding method than looking at dead scum's relationship with the remaining players.

I which case, I invite you to re-read soupfly's position on TBS end of day 1 and day 2. I'm not really sure why you've cleared him, if we're getting into that.

Actually, speaking of clearing players, almost everyone in the game has cleared a player. That's kinda dangerous, as pure statistics state that at least one of the cleared players must be scum. regardless, I'm amlost certain eroto is town, even if I can't seem to convince anyone else of hat fact.

Having said that, the developments after my initial vote have given me some food for thought on the other two players in my list. I'm starting to wonder whether Streeflo was actually trying to get Shanba lynched based on the expectation that one of the town would jump on the wagon once there were a couple of votes, then jumped off quickly when he realised it wasn't going to happen. I don't see any other reason to unvote at the point he did - if a quicklynch was going to occur then it would have already happened. I also found his attempt to stifle discussion of Shanba's main town tell on Eroto in 660 a bit out of place.

Meh. Tat's a possibility. I do like your last couple of posts with regards to Streeflo and am beginning to waver on whether I'm right on you or no. I know one of you must be scum, but I just can't see many Streeflo pairings that make sense like an Erg0-soupfly one does.

[Shanba]

Shanba, I'm confused. Why are you voting for Erg0? You say that I'm town and that Erg0-Streeflo is unlikely. This leaves Soupfly/Erg0 and Soupfly/Streeflo as possible scumpairs. So why Erg0 over Soupfly?

Because I know one of Streeflo/Erg0 must be scum, or I'd be dead and we'd have lost by now.

Shanba: what exactly do you mean about soupfly's position on TBS? He doesn't seem to have been too suspicious of him, but I'm looking more at TBS's position on soupfly, since that's more reliable in my eyes. Townies can be mistaken about someone, but scum (almost) always know the alignment of each person that they comment on.

Eh. I was hoping you would point to specifics that made you think he was town.

Incidentally, I noticed in re-reading that soupfly says in 442 that the doctor (if there is one) should protect Jenter, who ended up being the scum's target that night. I can't see scum actively promoting the protection of their intended target. This is only a minor point, though, since it's so subject to WIFOM.

He tries to discourage people from voting TBS on day 2 but does it in such a way that it makes it look like he is suspicious of him. He only votes for TBS when it is clear, by his own logic, that TBS must be scum. It's the sort of behaviour with regards to scum that makes my skin crawl.

[Shanba]

Skin crawl? If you are townie and I am scum then I would have had zero incentive to defend hautboy/yourself before you were even active. Jimmy was leaning towards a vote your way and it would not have been hard to push for a lynch. I could have even just been silent and let things play out. However, I thought you were a townie before you even joined the game and was much more vocal than Eroto on this point. Despite this, you seem convinced that Eroto is town because of the fact that he posted "I think we lost"!?! That's your definitive reasoning for clearing Eroto and now starting to cast suspicion on me? I guess that brings you down a notch on my townie list and now makes me completely reconsider the game scenarios because up until now I'd been going on the assumption that you were town.
[/quote] See, that's just about the only thing that makes me think I'm wrong about you. If you were scum, it would be so much easier for you to just have attacked me rather than defending me as strongly as you were. But then again, maybe not. It occurred to me that it didn't matter which townie you lynched from you as scum perspective, and so defending me ins't necessarily a bad idea. I did something similar in newbie 319 as scum where I strongly defended one townie in order to get a mislynch on another. If your scumbuddy was then lynched, you wouldn't have looked so suspicious afterwards if you didn't support the mislynch of the day.

Geh. It probably wasn't a good idea to bring up something that controversial in lylo, but I truly believe that that comment is a towntell. It would take one hell of a scum to think it through far enough to make that comment, honestly. But clearly repeating this isn't convincing anyone, so I've decided to drop the whole thing for now. Just let it be known I won't be voting Eroto.

Regarding TBS I believe I've addressed my link with him but i'll do it again. D1: I wasn't overly suspicious but did make a post that I found him slightly suspicious because he was essentially lurking in plain sight. Was only a small suspicion and didn't see the point of a lynch on D2. I only voted for him when it was clear he was scum so I don't expect any townie credit for disposing of a scum, nor any scum points unless you wanna go totally WIFOM on me.

It's a much stronger link to him than I found in anyone else. Weakly attacking a scumbuddy when he's not under any pressure is the oldest distancing trick in the book. The d2 lynch thing was excessively quick, I agree, but posting things like "
So the big question is, just how guilty do you guys really think that TBS is?" is only going to discourage his lynch. It's a challenge. Go on, vote for him. I dare you. Do you see my point?

Given what I wrote above, I'm gonna do a full reread in order to see if I can get any further insights into the game.

For the time being I'm not comfortable voting for anybody which means that my initial suspicion on Erg0 has subsided. Funny thing is that eroto is now looking the most town to me.

[Shanba]

It's a much stronger link to him than I found in anyone else. Weakly attacking a scumbuddy when he's not under any pressure is the oldest distancing trick in the book. The d2 lynch thing was excessively quick, I agree, but posting things like "
So the big question is, just how guilty do you guys really think that TBS is?" is only going to discourage his lynch. It's a challenge. Go on, vote for him. I dare you. Do you see my point?

Jeez...nothing but WIFOM. If "weakly attacking a scumbuddy is the oldest trick in the book" then its clear I wouldn't have done it if I were scum since its too obvious...and we can go on and on like this forever.

This would work, if it weren't wrong. Scumtells are given off subconscoiusly.

Why are you basing all of your arguments (e.g. Eroto "I think town lost") on WIFOM? All that WIFOM arguments give you is a random chance of catching scum which isn't particularly helpful at this point.

I don't believe my towntell on Eroto is WIFOM, in the same way that any scumtell is not Wifom

[Shanba]

Maybe if you ignore me I'll go away.

Erg0, the two situations would be the same if it were my only reason for voting soupfly.

[Shanba]

No, because I cannot be certain you are scum, whereas I know one of Erg0 or Streeflo must be scum.

[Shanba]

Shanba's vote still doesn't make any sense to me at all. By trying to guess whether Erg0 or Streeflo are scum, you effectively have a 50% of catching scum. Since you've said that soupfly would be their only logical scum partner, then voting for him should give you a 100% of getting scum (according to your assumptions, which are that I'm town and that a Erg0+Streeflo scumpair is unlikely).

This is a point that's beginning to frustrate me, because it seems so incredibly obvious to me. Also, you seriously exaggerate my stance here.

From my perspective, I know than one of the scum is in the group {Erg0, Streeflo}. I know that the other scum is in the group {Erg0, Streeflo, soupfly, Erotomachia}. This gives me pairings of Erg0-Streeflo, Erg0-soupfly, Erg0-Erotomachia, Streeflo- soupfly and Streeflo-Erotomachia. Although soupfly is individually scummier, my reads are not as important in this case as the hard evidence, that Streeflo or Erg0 must be scum. I've been wrong about people before, I am not infallible. As such, my vote choice only makes sense between Erg0/Streeflo.

Perhaps an analogy would help. A player claims cop with a guilty on another player. Logically, the play that day would be one of the cop or the guilty, as while there might be other scum out there it is much better for the town to lynch one of the players of which one must be scum (for the purposes of the analogy, I'm assuming no millers or sanity problems, etc.) This applies doubly so in Lylo.

However, I can't just ignore my reads on other players. I would be an idiot to do so. As such, I find an Erg0/soupfly pairing the most likely. So I vote Erg0. It gives me a much better chance of voting scum this way than just choosing who I think is scummiest. Do you understand now?

the play for today is either streeflo or shanba. streeflo has play excellent but i just can't get over his second vote today. shanba has used some pretty shaky logic in his posts till now. the point that eroto just pointed out is very true indeed. with shanba's logic he should have seen me as obvious scum but he didn't...probably cause he can't explain why i defended him.

its taken a while, we've taken our time but the best place for my vote is shanba.

Ok. The first thing is, see what I wrote to Eroto. My vote for Erg0 makes sense in the context of the game.

Secondly, I assume you're referring to the towntell thing. If you're accusing that of being shaky logic, frankly it's not. Let me explain.

Town have different objectives to scum. They are trying to find the scum, work out what's going on, push the correct lynches, not overly concerned with survival. They have a specific mindset towards the game. This is the basis of a towntell.

Scum have an entirely different mindset. They are trying to push mislynches, look innocent, neutralise threats to themselves, hunt for power roles etc. This different mindset is the basis of a scumtell. If you dispute this, you are disputing the basic premise of the game of mafia.

As such, I have said what I believe to be a towntell. I've given arguments as to why I believe it to be a towntell. Erg0 has disputed those arguments and given counter arguments. And so on. Ultimately, it boils down to which arguments you find more persuasive. But it's not shaky logic at all. In the same way, one person arguing that we have free will and one person arguing that we are predestined would disagree with each other. But it doesn't mean that either of their arguments are flawed.

Erg0, I have questioned the strength of your case. It seems like you are basing everything on a single interaction. That's all very well and good, but a single interaction isn't that hard for a scum to fake. You ignore the large evidence against Soupfly in favour of TBS' one interaction with him, and you disregard Streeflo's behaviour today.

Speaking of which, I'm beginning to wonder whether I don't have the wrong player. Although I see more possible pairings with Erg0, I am worried by the way Streeflo seems to just agree with whatever Erg0 is saying at the time. In fact, Streeflo's play seems much more reminiscent to me of a scumplay today than Erg0. Which is annoying, because I see Erg0 scumpairs as more likely.

Unvote

for now. I need to reread Streeflo's play.

[Shanba]

Hah. I actually believe the towntell I had on Erotomachia. And I probably would have usd the same logic to vote Erg0 if I had been town. The whole "his logic is shaky" thing really got to me XD.

However, Erg0 was quite right when he pointed out the distancing between TBS qnd me. I guess I probably wouldn't have been quite so gungho about saying Eroto was town if I had been town, but my logic would have remained the same. Not noticing soupfly had been defending me was sheer idiocy, and really threw me. If I had been town, I would have attacked Streeflo much, much harder, though. That second vote then unvote thing looked scummy to me, as if he was pushing for a quicklynch then realised he wouldn't get it when I was replaced. But it worked well as distancing, so nicely done.

Kinda a swingy game. If town gets lucky they can have two masons, a cop, 2 confirmed innocents and a vig confirmed by day 2. But that's the way of all high power games.