Mini 480 - Boring Town Mafia *GAME OVER*

[Bookitty]

Hello, everyone!

I'm still in the process of a third re-read of this, but so far what I'm sure of is:

Setael is innocent. He said he would do something, he did it. Proof.

The Central Scrutinizer is innocent. If he weren't a Mason, Simenon would have said so.

I'm innocent.

So we have four people left. Faeren, the doc, protecting Nano, the cop. (Assuming no false claims -- I'm not really ready to assume that yet though.)

This leaves Yagami and Samruc.

I'll wait to see what Nano comes up with, which might produce more information, but for now I'm pointing

FOS: YagamiLight and Samruc

, with a vote for one of the two likely to follow. (Barring further evidence I'm pretty sure they are both scum.)

Back to my reread.

[Bookitty]

Something interesting I noticed.

Post 320:

FoS:Hascel Cedricson, Yagami Light, and Samruc

for lurker hunting on the second day of play :Roll:

IH was nightkilled by Mafia after that. Knowing what we now know about Haschel, knowing that Setael and The Central Scrutinizer are town for sure, and my personal knowledge that I'm town... hmmm. Maybe it's nothing, but also in post 319 Haschel votes for FLoC while FLoC is still under pressure. In post 349 Haschel votes for Nano, and then again in 477 when pressure is building against Nano. We know what Haschel was, and his motives. So I think both of them are probably what they say they are (Nano more certainly than FLoC, but both are likely telling the truth as I see it). Haschel's behaviour doesn't exactly prove their innocence, but it's pretty good supporting evidence.

Sorry about the double posting, but I have a lot to catch up with (and make up for)! I'll await comments/corrections before I place my vote.

[Bookitty]

good job setael! I want to congratulate you on your awesome vig choice.

QFT. Thank you, Setael.

[Bookitty]

Okay, here's how I see it. (And please, correct me if you see flaws in my logic.)

The Central Scrutinizer is absolutely, proven beyond doubt to be a Mason. Simenon is confirmed Mason by his death (I don't understand the mistake made by Mafia in killing Simenon, to be honest, since they also confirm an innocent by so doing) and so The Central Scrutinizer is Mason as well.

Setael claimed a role, and stated an action she would take, which in fact she did take, with results as we see. (Incidentally, sorry about mistaking your gender before, I was rereading pretty frantically.) So in my eyes Setael is confirmed innocent.

So as I see it, with two Mafia left unaccounted for, there are several possibilities:

Yagamilight and Samruc are Mafia together, and the roleclaims are all true.

Faeren Lord of Carlisle is Mafia, and lying about protecting Nanosauromo. Since he is Mafia, it would be a simple matter just to target someone else. This doesn't work logically for me, though, because why would Mafia leave the cop alive to finger one of them? So I don't think this scenario works, unless Nanosauromo is also Mafia.

Nanosauromo is Mafia, and lying about being the cop. This one works better, though I'm still uncertain about it. My original thought is that no one would say that, by an amazing coincidence, they'd investigated someone who just happened to be the one killed... so it must be true... but now he's saying it happened twice? Hmmm. With all the suspicion on my predecessor, I was betting he would say he'd investigated me... that would have been the logical thing to do, no? It's what I would have done.

In this case, Faeren could either be lying or telling the truth. It seems fairly unlikely that two such claims would go uncounterclaimed, so I'm betting that isn't the case. And logically, if only one of these two is scum, it's Nanosauromo.

So I'm left with a question. Nanosauromo, why did you choose to investigate Simenon in preference to any other candidates for investigation? Did he seem most suspicious to you?

[Bookitty]

There is a mistake in your reasoning here. If FLOC is Mafia, he lied about being a doc all the time, and as such could not "target" anyone. This doesn't mean Nano would have been a safe NK for the mafia. On the contrary, if FLOC is mafia, there would have been a big risk that the real doc (if there is one, but the mafia wouldn't know) protected Nano. So FLOC = mafia, Nano = cop is quite possible.

Actually, there's a flaw in your reasoning, not mine.
Mafia can target people as well as the doctor can. So FLoC as Mafia could direct their target elsewhere while pretending to protect the cop. And, if the real doctor protected Nano, then Mafia would NOT know that, and they would target him, as the only person who could definitively prove their guilt. There's NO logical reason for Mafia to leave a real cop alive at this point in the game.

First, you are not really ready to assume no false claims (not ready to believe the claims), but then suddenly you are pretty sure both me and Yagami are scum. That's a pretty big jump in two paragraphs...

I was waiting for Nano's results. I had expected that he would claim he'd investigated me and found me innocent (null tell, since I know I am and that would be the logical move for him, so I would have gotten no new information from it) or, if I was lucky, that he would claim to have investigated me and have found me guilty, because then I would know for sure he was scum. (And even if I were lynched on his word, he would have outed himself upon my death.)

Nano's claim that he investigated a pretty well confirmed Mason is highly suspect to me. And if FLoC is Mafia, then so is Nanosauramo, because I can't think of ANY reason at this point in the game for Mafia to protect the real cop. Can you? It's a highly risky and frankly quite stupid move for them. If Nano IS the real cop, they couldn't have known he would choose someone innocent and dead to investigate.

If you see a flaw in my logic, please explain it to me.

[Bookitty]

If Nano is a cop, then yes, it's risky to let him live, but it would be a disaster to scum at this point if their NK didn't go through. Scum have a lot of people to kill if they are going to win this game, and frankly, there would have been no chance for them to make us lynch Sim, thus the NK.

I think it would be more a disaster to scum to allow a real cop to live and to identify one of them. I don't see a reason for that, even given the possible presence of a "real doctor" hiding in the wings somewhere. It's too unlikely, at this point. It seems foolish to base your strategy on such a nebulous possibility.

The troubling thing is the second part of that statement: "there would have been no chance for them to make us lynch Sim, thus the NK." Thus... the Mason claim was believed, in your opinion. So Nano's choice of investigation seems even more odd, doesn't it? Inexplicably so?

And even more so given that in post 517 Nanosauramo asks

Meanwhile, who does everyone think I should investigate tonight?

Setael answers in post 518

I'd like to say "me" so I can be confirmed Town, but it'd be more helpful for you to hit a mafia, so I would suggest either Haschel or heatherlou since I think they're likely scum.

And with her later announcement of her role and who she was going to kill... heatherlou (me, now) is the remaining option...

So why ask a question if you intend to ignore the answer?

[Bookitty]

Based on the logic I've already outlined, I think that TCS is absolutely confirmed town. Setael virtually so. (I don't buy into the "bussing" thing, because there was no motive for Mafia to do so at that time, was there? And how would that give them two nightkills anyway? If they HAD two nightkills, why would they use one on themselves? That doesn't seem to be to their advantage.)

Nanosauramo is more likely than FLoC to be scum if only one of them is, but it's very possible neither is. (I am troubled by the neat coincidence of investigating two people in a row who happened to be NKed. It doesn't ring true to me. But I'm not willing to lynch an uncounterclaimed cop yet, nor an uncounterclaimed doctor either.)

If Nano is the cop, with a string of bad luck, then it's certainly true that FLoC has protected him since we can all see that Nano's not dead. (I don't really buy into the "unclaimed" doctor thing, because I think they would have claimed by now in order to identify FLoC as scum. If they hadn't, why would the Mafia assume there was another doctor?) And does anyone really think the Mafia would leave a real cop alive to ID them? So if Nano is town, I think we have to assume FLoC is town as well. The other possibility seems a little farfetched.

So... this leaves Yagami and Samruc as possible lynch targets, from my perspective. They may both be guilty. Only one might be, and that one scum partners with Nanosauramo. Or neither may be, and Nano and FLoC may be in it together.

If Nano had investigated me (which I STILL say any cop looking to catch scum, rather than to "confirm townies", would have done) then we would have had a definite result, thanks to Setael's proven (to me, at least) roleclaim. Like this:

• 1. Nano investigates me and clears me. This leaves only Yagami and Samruc as possibles (due to the fact that if Nano is a cop, then FLoC must be a doctor protecting him, see my logic above), so we lynch one of them.
  
  • a. If the lynchee is scum, we have a comfortable margin and a pretty good bet that the other candidate is scum as well.
    
    b. If the lynchee is innocent, we know that at least one of the claimers (cop or doctor) is lying, so I think we're safe to lynch the cop THEN (see my logic above as to why the cop MUST be lying if the doctor is).
  2. Nano investigates me and accuses me of being scum. Well, I know that's not true, but that wouldn't help me and I'd still be lynched. Nano would immediately follow me, for having given false information, so he CAN'T find a guilty on me. It's counterproductive.

If Yagami and Samruc are town, then the same logic would apply to them.

So if Nano is scum it makes perfect sense he would steer well clear of pretending to investigate me.

I still can't justify a vote for the claimed cop at this point. My vote will go to either Yagami or Samruc, because I can't justify voting for FLoC either (if Nano is a cop, I think FLoC MUST be a doc). I haven't decided yet between these two.

And while I approve of your idea in theory, Setael, I don't think it's going to work in practice, because I don't think Nano is willing to do it. It's not easy to set up something like that, I think, and since he would have the key, it would be easy to fake any result he wished. So I fear it would be inconclusive, anyway. I don't object to it, I just don't think it will do what you want.

[Bookitty]

On fourth reread:

As far as I am concerned, Setael and TCS are confirmed.

• If Nano is scum and we lynch him, we get no information about his buddy. It could then be anybody. If Nano is the cop it would be a bad mistake to lynch him. So no joy in lynching Nano, either way.

• If FLoC is scum and there is a doc, it must be either myself, Samruc or Yagami.
  If FLoC is scum and there is no doc the Mafia must still suspect one of us three of being the doc, if Samruc's idea is correct.
  If FLoC is scum and we lynch him then Nano "might" hit scum but we have no further information on Nano's guilt or innocence either way (and thus the veracity of his information), unless he is nightkilled. We can afford one mislynch to get our info, no more (by my reckoning, anyway)
  If FLoC is the doc and we lynch him then Nano likely dies before a further investigation can be revealed.

I'm thinking that logically we have to lynch one of the non-claimers (myself, Yagami, or Samruc) in order to gain any useful information. (More on this later, I'm still looking at angles of this.) Surprise, I'm not going to vote for myself, though!

Question, though: Why hasn't Mafia killed FLoC if he IS the real doctor? (I hadn't thought of this before -- but why kill a Mason at all? Killing a Mason confirms another townie, hardly the smartest move for scum, I'd think.)

I think I'm nearly ready to vote. If any of you see flaws in my logic, I'd be grateful if you'd point them out.

[Bookitty]

Okay. I'm ready, I think.

I have to decide between Samruc and YagamiLight, who is more scummy.

I reread the game, and I got a fairly neutral feel from Samruc (he REALLY doesn't believe FLoC's doctor claim, but that's in itself not pro-town or pro-scum so far as I know) and not much of a read on Yagami at all, before Day 3.

But today Samruc has had logical and reasoned postings, argued with my logic (and in fact corrected it), pointed out things from an angle I hadn't thought of, and I don't see any reason scum would do that.

On the other hand, I don't agree with much of YagamiLight's last post at all. I don't think it's the prudent move for a cop to investigate one of a pair of Masons, but I can see its appeal (catching two scum at once, ideally, which is why scum probably won't make such a claim). And the extra Mafia night kill one time only special exception case YagamiLight postulates? That theory seems overly convoluted, "like the elaborations of a bad liar," to me.

I want to give YagamiLight the chance to defend/claim/whatever before I put him at L-1, but this

FOS: YagamiLight

indicates my intended vote sometime tomorrow assuming nothing changes.

[Bookitty]

TCS is indeed proven town, and will not get a vote from me under any circumstances. That doesn't make his logic any better than mine, or anyone else's. And here's my logical explanation for why Setael can't be scum.

There are two scum left. Before Haschel's untimely demise, there were three.

So let's say this "Setael is scum" argument is true, and Setael decides to kill off Haschel as a one shot scum vig rather than killing off a townsperson, "bussing" her partner. Under this scenario, two of the three scum are accounted for. One is Setael, one is dead Haschel, and one is still unknown.

We know it can't be TCS. No point even discussing that.

If Nanosauramo is the scum, then there's no need at all to bus Haschel. Setael could kill a townsperson without announcing anything, put us into Lylo (we are at 5-2 rather than 4-3 because Haschel was scum and not town, which was lucky) and then Nanosauramo pretends to investigate me (for instance), comes up with a guilty, I'm lynched and Mafia wins. Simple.

If ANYONE else is scum, then Nanosauramo can't be, because there's only one scum left unaccounted for. So Nanosauramo is out there, investigating people... it makes no sense to get rid of your numerical advantage when there's a cop out there possibly investigating you.

Logically your theory doesn't hold up.

As always, if there's a flaw in my reasoning, point it out.

[Bookitty]

Either that or Nano kills whoever he investigates (overruling the scum's NK), either knowingly or unknowingly. Is that too far fetched to be possible? I haven't played long enough to know if that is possible or totally ridiculous.

I would like to know the answer to this question as well, if anyone knows.

[Bookitty]

Post 529, quoted in its entirety here:

Faerie, you've had since the deadline was extended to present some kind of case on someone else. The fact that you won't even post your suspicions now really makes it seem as though you don't want the Town to have any information once you come up scum.

If you are Town, you would've told us why you are suspicious of me and Haschel. It seems the only possibility is that you are scum, and that is why you continue to do absolutely nothing pro-Town.

In other news, I've been thinking on this awhile, and I think I need to claim. I wasn't sure if this is wise because I think it's rather unorthidox, and many of you might think it's not wise, but this is a special exception having this many power roles outed. If I am NK'd, my night vig kill will still go through which worst case scenario would be a 1 for 1 trade, so I think claiming is the most pro-Town thing to do. My reasons are:

1) I don’t want the cop to waste an investigation on me

2) If there is a Town RB I don't want them to waste their RB on me.

3) I don’t want the cop to waste an investigation on the person I plan to vig.

4) If I say who I plan to vig, we have the potential to find out about 2 scum tonight, whereas if I don't, the cop and I could overlap.

5) With so many power roles claimed, it is unlikely the mafia or any possible scum RB’s will bother wasting their night action on me. If they do, you will know that the person I was going to vig is mafia since the only way they would choose to stop me instead of the cop or doc is if I'm targetting mafia.

6) If they do choose to target me in order to prevent my vig kill, it is more helpful for the town for me to be killed and the cop to survive until tomorrow to provide his results, or for the doc to survive to protect, or for the masons to survive because they are confirmed. As I see it, a NK of me would actually be helpful for town since it protects a more useful power role.

So, obviously I'm a one-shot night Town vigilante. Tonight I plan to kill Haschel. I'm pretty sure he and FL are scum buddies. Haschel, if you feel the need to claim, do so.

[Bookitty]

We have two scenarios: all of our claims are true, in which case all we have to do is

lynch the three remaining players

for a town auto-win, or some of our claims are false, in which the situation is much trickier.

I was assuming that there were only three Mafia in this game (one of whom is dead)... but I don't know why I thought that. Is that a safe assumption? If there are possibly three Mafia still out there then I need to rethink some things, because if we don't lynch correctly today, we've lost.

[Bookitty]

Okay, I've thought about it. And I still think that the only way to gain more information, regardless, is to vote one of the unclaimed people. Of the two choices available to me, I found Samruc's logic and input less scummy, so

vote: YagamiLight

[Bookitty]

In case there's a lynching and we go to night before I get another chance to post, I'd just like to request that Nanosauramo NOT investigate TCS or Setael. They're both already confirmed, in my opinion at least.

Anyone else would be fine with me.

[Bookitty]

I'd like to ask for an official vote count (though I'm pretty sure I know where the votes lie). Also, I'd like Samruc to weigh in with any opinions about YagamiLight, and I would still like to hear anything YagamiLight might have to say that might be helpful or change people's minds.

Mainly, there haven't been any postings here for a little and I wanted to remind people that this game is still ongoing.

[Bookitty]

Either that or the two remaining scum are already voting for him. (i.e., Setael and Bookitty)

I can see why you'd list me. I'm puzzled about Setael though. I personally think she's proven her roleclaim.

If you do not, can you explain why, please?

I just REALLY don't want to waste an investigation on her when I think she's confirmed as pro-town, but I don't mind if you want to investigate me or basically anyone but TCS and Setael. We can't afford to waste another investigation.

[Bookitty]

Hmmm.

Until Nanosauramo answers about Setael, I think I'm going to

unvote

just to be safe.

[Bookitty]

Now I'm fairly certain that Yagami is scum. If he was innocent, the real scum would have hammered him by now.

Either that or the two remaining scum are already voting for him. (i.e., Setael and Bookitty)

This just bothers me more and more.

Setael is confirmed town. Why would Nano include her on this list, unless he WAS setting up an excuse for investigating her when night falls, thus ensuring no useful information to the town?

YagamiLight, from my perspective, you have no need to "defend" yourself. I felt that one of the three unclaimed people should be lynched, as offering the best chance for finding the scum, but in honesty my predecessor acted FAR more suspiciously than you ever have, in my view at least. I just thought you acted marginally more scummy than Samruc has, and you two were the choices according to my theory.

I have no level of certainty that you are scum. I am only certain of myself, TCS and Setael. Everything else is speculation and logical argument on my part, and I could be wrong. I thought it logical to vote for one of the unclaimed, and of them, you seemed most suspicious.

Right now, though, the person I find most suspicious and most want to explain himself is Nanosauramo.

vote: Nanosauramo

[Bookitty]

I would like to wait and hear what YagamiLight has to say. I don't think that could be a bad thing for town.

I would like Samruc to present his case against FLoC. I've been open about my doubts of both the doctor and the cop claims and I would like a different perspective on the situation.

I would like Nanosauromo to confirm to us that he isn't going to waste his investigation on TCS or Setael when we eventually go to night. My vote stays there until he does.

Sadly, I'm aware that the universe doesn't really care what I would like. But I remain cautiously optimistic nonetheless.

[Bookitty]

Anything you think would be helpful, I would like to read, Yagami. Thanks for your input so far.

As long as it is not TCS or Setael, I don't care who is investigated tonight. But I would prefer Nanosauromo not tell us who he's going to investigate, because of the likelihood that that person would be NKed.

Faeren, do you have any theories as to why the scum might want to leave you alive?

[Bookitty]

Nanosauromo, how about it? Will you promise not to waste an investigation on TCS or Setael tonight?

And I'm hoping still to hear from Samruc, before I post my thoughts on recent events.

[Bookitty]

Thank you, Nanosauromo.

I'm still waiting on Samruc's comments on FLoC, but for now:

unvote

[Bookitty]

Okay. I don't buy into the nebulous "real doctor" theory, wherein the Mafia would not be willing to try to kill the cop, because there might be a real doctor protecting him. I think that if there were a "real doctor", said person would have counterclaimed FLoC. I don't think FLoC is the real doctor, either, because I don't see why the Mafia wouldn't have killed him. But this is conjecture on my part. It's WIFOM... scum might think, "But if we leave him alive, they'll waste a lynch on him..." So I have no certainty that I'm right. And FLoC hasn't really posted much lately, so I haven't got a lot to work with.

I'm on more certain territory with Nanosauromo, because he's been more willing to discuss things.

Now I'm fairly certain that Yagami is scum. If he was innocent, the real scum would have hammered him by now.

Either that or the two remaining scum are already voting for him. (i.e., Setael and Bookitty)

This is just a mistake. I know I'm not scum, and Setael has pretty well confirmed her role as well. So when I apply Nano's own logic, either he is scum, Yagami is scum, or they both are. Then I'm left with thinking, who has acted more suspiciously? And that is Nano, no question (two investigations of conveniently dead people? It COULD be coincidence, but... is it?)

Then this retraction of his previous statement:

I wasn't saying that Setael and Bookitty were scum. I was merely pointing out that they were the two non-Nano people voting for him.

This isn't at all what he said earlier. He said either Yagami is scum, or two scums are voting for him (mentioning me and Setael by name) and this (to me, anyway) looks like he's distancing from his own statement, having realised the implications.

I'm currently trying to figure out the possible consequences of lynching each of the possible candidates (with the caveat that I'm not considering the possibility of lynching TCS or Setael). I'll hopefully have more later. If you see mistakes in my reasoning, please pick it apart, I'm by no means certain I'm right.

[Bookitty]

I do agree that in general it's a bad idea to counterclaim doctor, especially on Day One. However, it's also a bad idea for scum to claim doctor falsely, because the same logic that kills the truthful counterclaiming doctor makes the uncounterclaimed pretend doctor seem awfully suspicious for still being alive. I do not feel sure enough to vote to lynch FLoC, because if he is the doctor, we might have just killed the cop as well.

I would recommend any such hidden doctor, should same exist, follow Setael's advice.

Despite my suspicion of Nanosauromo (I think I've covered this well enough) we gain no additional information by lynching a claimed cop, other than his specific guilt or innocence.

So I'm stuck with the same theory I had before. We should lynch one of the unclaimed (myself, Samruc, or YagamiLight). It's the only method that gives us additional information.

I'm not certain that Setael's idea (that Nanosauromo tell us in code, now, who he intends to investigate so that we can verify it later) will work but I don't really see a downside to it. I will say that I would like this as well.

I'll have a vote a bit later. I want to take some time and reread posts in isolation before I place my vote.

[Bookitty]

Okay. Let me present some reasons not to believe Nano.

• He's investigated two people and found them innocent, and they happened to die and be proven innocent. That's a pretty big coincidence.
  
  If you are innocent, and protecting Nano who is scum, then that explains why you're being left alive as a claimed doctor.
  
  He used one investigation to check the alignment of one of a pair of claimed Masons, which at that point in the game seems to be deliberately unhelpful, especially with so many more suspicious targets available.
  
  He seemed (until pinned down about it) to be setting up an excuse to investigate Setael, who is also as close to confirmed as anyone in this game besides TCS.

You may believe his claim, but I don't like the way you phrased "I have no reason not to believe Nano." There are plenty of reasons not to believe him. Would you care to address this point?

[Bookitty]

For the sake of clarity, I need to explain something. I believe that voting for one of the unclaimed people is necessary to gain information. We need Nano's investigation (even a false one) in order to proceed with any additional knowledge. Lynching FLoC, if we are mistaken, runs the risk of Nano being NKed. Lynching Nano rules out any information we could glean from his investigation, true or false.

In case I am NKed (something I find highly unlikely, but I suppose could happen) I want to present my list of suspects, from most suspicious to least suspicious.

• Nanosauromo. I have outlined my case against him already. I think his post about "Setael and Bookitty" possibly being scum on the wagon for YagamiLight is highly suspicious. It's nearly clever, because it distances him from Yagami if Yagami is his scumbuddy, and also subtly points suspicion at me, while justifying an investigation of Setael that would tell us nothing. I think it very possible YagamiLight and Nanosauromo are both scum.
  
  FLoC. I don't understand why he's still alive, unless Nanosauromo is scum, or FLoC is.
  
  YagamiLight. He hasn't taken a definite stand against anyone. He seemed nearly willing to be lynched, and he's had mostly nice things to say about people. Which makes him a lovely person... and very suspicious. The comment Nano made about Yagami either being scum or scum voting for him, considering who was voting for Yagami, makes him look like the most helpful lynch for today.
  
  Samruc. Nearly tied with Yagami, mainly due to tunneling on FLoC (even if FLoC is guilty, he's got a partner, and tunnel vision doesn't help town). Still his insights seem to be logically sound, and I haven't found anything that seemed insincere.

All of these things considered, and even though YagamiLight is not at the top of my list, I still think that lynching one of the people who has not claimed a role other than townie would gain most information for the town. And I think it's at least a strong possibility that Nanosauromo and YagamiLight are scumbuddies.

I would appreciate any criticism, refutation, or counterevidence to my reasoning. Barring a convincing counterargument, however, it is my intention to restore my vote on YagamiLight.

[Bookitty]

Okay. Assuming all claims are true, then we'd pretty much need four mafia to balance that. One is dead. TCS and Setael are confirmed, I believe. So then I know that can't be true, because then Yagami, Samruc and I would all have to be Mafia, and I know I'm not.

So that means one of the roleclaims is probably false. Between the two, I'm less convinced of Nanosauromo's claim.

Still thinking about this, trying to figure out what we gain by lynching one of the claimed roles, and what we might lose if we're wrong.

[Bookitty]

A few comments on Samruc's suspicions.

If FLoC is scum, then the reason Nanosauromo hasn't been NKed yet is either that Nano is his scum buddy (possible) or to maintain FLoC's cover. The second If we lynch FLoC, then whether FLoC is innocent or guilty, a truthful Nano may die, and we lose his investigation. Since I'm more certain that Nano is scum, this isn't concerning me overly.

I dislike FLoC's commentary about "you seem to be thinking as scum quite a lot here, and rather convincingly." This is a stupid statement in all sorts of ways. First, it is the job of town to try to anticipate what scum might do, and try to counter it, ESPECIALLY if you are the doctor. That's your whole JOB, isn't it? So this seems very out of place, if FLoC is the doctor.

Do you guys really want to lose our doctor? Especially waste a lynch on him? Crazy I say, crazy.

This appeal to emotion seems really out of place. I personally have no emotional attachment to our doctor.

Honestly samruc, you're the scummiest guy in my eyes right now. Your only suspect is me, and you're the only one. You don't believe me, because of your mysterious "reread", and you post no evidence that I'm lying, because there is none. sir, I am NOT lying. I think that you pushing me is actually pretty scummy, and no this isn't omgus. This is you really pushing the ddoc here.

As does this one. Pushing someone regarding their claim is a null tell. Disbelieving someone's claim is a null tell, unless it's pretty much proven. And just saying something isn't OMGUS is meaningless. This looks precisely like OMGUS to me. (Still... you pushed him, Samruc? That's so mean. Bully.)

I'd like some sort of response from FLoC. Continuing to mostly lurk is not helping your case.

[Bookitty]

Still waiting for some kind of answer from FLoC. Thank you for the information, TCS, and good luck with school.

[Bookitty]

I think I've done my best to help the town, and I've used logical arguments and deduction to try to figure out the most likely scum. That's the best evidence I have to present on my own behalf.

But I guess my best reason that I am not scum is that I think YagamiLight and Nanosauromo are scumbuddies. I think that's why no one hammered YagamiLight when he was at L-1 for so long. I probably wouldn't have thought of that, if Nanosauromo hadn't pointed out that either YagamiLight is scum, or there was scum on the wagon... so if Nano is scum, he worked against himself there, indirectly. But that does make YagamiLight seem much more suspicious to me.

There's my case, for what it's worth.

[Bookitty]

The case against FLoC.

Most incriminating in my eyes is that he's still alive. That says to me, that either he is lying, or Nanosauromo is. If I go with the theory that says FLoC is scum, as you propose, then Nanosauromo could be an honest (unlucky, thus far, but honest) cop. And we need that cop's investigation to have a good shot at lynching the right person tomorrow. So even though FLoC may be scum, if we lynch him, we remove the last protection for Nanosauromo, because it is possible (not probable, but possible) that Nanosauromo is an honest cop is being kept alive to preserve FLoC's cover. So I don't agree with this point, "2) If FLoC is scum and Nano is the cop, then lynching FLoC doesn't affect Nano's chance of surviving." I understand your logic, but I think it's still possible that it affects Nano's chances.

Secondly, the comment about "thinking as scum" directed at Samruc. Thinking as scum, trying to figure out who the scum is likely to target, is one hundred percent of the doc's job. So why would the DOCTOR criticise someone for that? He's not accusing you of acting scummy, he's accusing you of thinking like scum. And that's usually a good thing for town, when people discuss what scum is

If there were a real doctor in hiding, I think they would have claimed by now, because FLoC would likely be lynched as a result. It makes the choice easy. If FLoC comes up as town, then the counterclaimer is exposed as scum. So I'm guessing there is no "real doctor" in concealment.

So I'm left thinking that if FLoC is scum, he's not alone in being scum. Samruc has suggested that Nano and FLoC could be scum together. This seems possible to me, I've said as much myself, but it's not something I feel certain of. Killing FLoC might result in Nanosauromo's death. More likely it will leave us with a WIFOM situation, and no additional information with which to make a decision.

Nano made a very good point, that no one hammered YagamiLight. Another WIFOM situation. But logically, TCS was not on that wagon, and his role is absolutely confirmed. Setael was, and hers is nearly confirmed. I know I'm town. So either Nanosauromo is scum on the wagon, YagamiLight is scum, or both... and either way, we learn something if we lynch YagamiLight. To a lesser degree, the same is true of lynching Samruc or myself. People will make cases, and some people will have some certainty about who is who. If Yagami is town, that means one of the claimed people is scum, and we'll know that, and we'll have a better chance of lynching correctly tomorrow.

To reiterate:

If Nanosauromo is scum, that explains FLoC not being NKed. (Ooooh, lots of acronyms!) If FLoC is scum, that explains FLoC not being NKed. If both of them are scum together, then that also explains FLoC not being NKed. But if neither of them is scum, then I don't see why the scum haven't targeted the doctor, as a means of getting to the cop.

Lynching either of them runs the risk of being wrong and losing us an honest, albeit unlucky, cop. I am not saying Nanosauromo is an honest cop, I'm saying I can't know for sure that he's not... and without further evidence, we can't know.

My best guess tells me that YagamiLight is the lynch that has the best chance of hitting scum and gaining us information while not risking the loss of an investigation. And that's where my vote is likely to go, barring any additional information being presented.

Please correct any mistakes or logical errors I've made.

[Bookitty]

EBWOP:

Part of my third paragraph in post 649 got cut off somehow. The last sentence should read:

And that's usually a good thing for town, when people discuss what scum is likely to be thinking.

Sorry about that!

[Bookitty]

My postings are all from my own perspective. I know for sure what my alignment is, just like everyone else here. So my postings will reflect the knowledge I have for sure. If you feel that my postings are not pro-town, or that I am most likely scum, then for certain you should vote for me. I've included myself in the three unclaimed people whom it would be useful and would gain information for town to lynch. I don't exclude myself there.

I've actually made the exact argument you present here, FLoC, for NOT lynching you. I don't know your alignment, and I don't like some of your arguments, including this one where you completely misstate my position. If I wanted you dead, I'd vote to lynch you, and I'm not doing that (yet, though your craplogic in the last post is making me rethink it). I think it's highly suspicious, and I think any reasonable person would think it's highly suspicious.

That said, let me know if you find someone whose logic all revolves around them being scum. I'd like to read that.

[Bookitty]

In the interest of moving things along, though, I'm going to:

unvote; vote YagamiLight

and

Major FOS: Nanosauromo

Minor FOS: FLoC

I think Nanosauromo isn't a cop. I think that's why FLoC is still alive. And I'm betting at this moment that YagamiLight is Nanosauromo's partner.

I think if there are three scum, it's Nanosauromo, YagamiLight, and FLoC. However, if there are only two, I think it's YagamiLight and Nanosauromo.

[Bookitty]

Okay. I read over YagamiLight's post and I literally cannot do this.

I am not inviting others to join me (though if they think he's guilty, I think they should) but I'm far more convinced of Nanosauromo's guilt than I am of YagamiLight's. I read Nanosauromo's post, and I was thinking, "Who does he think will hammer so quickly?" It just seemed... odd.

I no longer am convinced of my Nanosauromo-YagamiLight team.

I'm going to

unvote; vote Nanosauromo

[Bookitty]

Well... with the proviso that I could be wrong, and I'm presenting the evidence for my opinions along with my case, I'm lining out this scenario.

I'm convinced Nanosauromo is scum. I think that perhaps his partner is Samruc. I think this because it seems highly unlikely to me that both claimed people are scum. I know I'm not scum. Samruc has pushed an FLoC lynch from the start, and both Nanosauromo and Samruc have come up with fairly wild theories regarding hidden doctors and cops who kill the ones they investigate, which seems a little farfetched to me. Additionally, it's my opinion that Nanosauromo was directing someone to hammer YagamiLight. I know that's not me, so the possibilities are narrowed for me (though not for anyone else).

The post that makes me believe that FLoC and Nanosauromo can't be scumpartners:

"I have no reason to not believe nano."

I do not believe scum would EVER say that about their scumpartner.

So right now I'm leaning toward Nanosauromo and Samruc being scumpartners, and Nano directing Samruc to give up his lonely fight against FLoC and put the hammer on YagamiLight. That's my theory, and my reasoning behind it.

As always, correct me if I'm wrong.

[Bookitty]

Hmmm. This is a good point. I agree that you are probably right.

unvote; vote Samruc

Do you see any flaws with my logic otherwise? Or mistakes in my theory? I'd really appreciate having them pointed out.

[Bookitty]

Okay, this is a valid point.

I'd like FLoC's and Nano's answer before I vote too.
(It was much simpler for me before Nanosauromo made that "hammer" comment. -sigh-)

unvote

To FLoC and Nano: Who DO you think are the two remaining scums?

[Bookitty]

I don't disagree that at least one of either the doc or cop is lying. Maybe even both. The questions I don't have accurate answers to are: What motivation would scum have to kill one of the masons over the doc? and.... Why would nano investigate Simenon? The reasons given for both are crap in my opinion.

On the first one... if FLoC is in fact the Doc, and Nano is scum, then scum would have a very strong motivation to keep FLoC alive. As soon as FLoC dies, and is proven to be the doctor, then Nano's continued existence is proof he's not the cop. I don't believe for a second that the Mafia would leave the cop alive.

On the second one? Nano said

Think about it: If we have a claimed mason pair, and one of them turns up as town by investigation, then we pretty much have two confirmed townies. Good, yes?

Except I've never liked his logic here. I think of the cop as in the job of finding scum, not confirming town. And two scum arranging to pose as Masons seems awfully risky, since if one falls, both fall. It's not a play I would make in their place, so I don't understand why Nanosauromo would have thought it likely. Absolute confirmation in such a case wasn't particularly useful for town.

All in all, I don't believe Nano. But I still think lynching one of the unclaimed may gain us more information.

In case it may be helpful, I'll post my thinking on scumpairs. I've put these in order of probability (Note, this is my opinion only, and should not be taken as fact):

• Nano-Yagami is highly possible.
  Nano-FLoC is very possible as well.
  FLoC-Yagami is possible.
  Nano-Samruc is possible.
  Samruc-Yagami is possible.
  FLoC-Samruc is unlikely.

Still thinking. Vote likely to follow later.

[Bookitty]

Okay. I've gone over this and over this, looking at it from every angle I could. This is only my analysis, and please pick apart any logical errors I have made. (And I'm not considering myself as scum, but I am sure everyone is aware that I am unconfirmed.)

I think we have to lynch one of the unclaimed. It is possible that FLoC is being left alive (and a confirmed Mason killed) because FLoC has been under heavy suspicion from the start, way back to when hand banana originated the role. The scum may have felt they could push FLoC's lynch convincingly. (Yes, I'm looking at you, Samruc.)

If I assume that both roleclaims are true, something that is possible (regardless of my personal opinions), then the remaining scum must be Samruc and YagamiLight. So in that case, lynching either one hits scum. We go into tomorrow in excellent shape, with Nano's accurate investigation to guide us.

If I assume that FLoC is telling the truth, and Nano is scum, then either Samruc or YagamiLight is scum. Samruc could be Nano's partner, and so could Yagami. I gain no extra knowledge there. If we lynch either of them, then Nano must investigate one of the other two. If he investigates one and finds them innocent, that one is his partner. If he finds them guilty, then the other one is his partner. (Note that my saying this could in fact skew this result, but I think we have enough evidence to determine who is more believable at this point anyway.)

If I assume that FLoC is scum, and Nano is telling the truth, then only Yagami can be scum with FLoC. Samruc's attacks on FLoC were too sustained and date from the earliest stages of the game, back to hand banana. I see no possibility that FLoC and Samruc are scumbuddies. So if Nano does his investigation on one of the two remaining, assuming that the lynched one was town, then he has a fifty-fifty shot of hitting scum. If he declares one innocent, in this scenario, the other one is scum.

If I assume that both are lying, then logically, if we lynch one of the unclaimed, Nanosauromo will investigate one of the other two. He must find one of them guilty, because if he does not, then it is evident to the other that either FLoC or himself must be scum. An innocent on me means (Samruc/Yagami, whichever one is left) is guilty with a partner in FLoC or Nano, or BOTH FLoC and Nano are. The same is true whichever one he clears. Therefore, I think he will make a false guilty claim against one of us (again, my saying this may skew this result) in this case. And then we're back to relying on evidence, but with a smaller field of suspects. This is worst case scenario, of course. I'm not convinced scum would take a chance like both false-claiming. Seems too risky.

Finally, WIFOM, but I don't see scum tunneling on one player like Samruc did on FLoC. It's too obvious, and too likely to attract unwanted attention. Additionally, Samruc could only be scumbuddies with Nano or Yagami, while Yagami could possibly be scumbuddies with any of the remaining three.

So my vote goes to YagamiLight.

unvote; vote YagamiLight

[Bookitty]

I have no objection, but you might wait to see if anyone violently disagrees with my post first. It's my logic, so obviously I agree with it, but there's no harm in waiting. We have another day in which to discuss.

I guess the short answer is, it's up to you.

[Bookitty]

I'm not silent! I'm just not saying anything. It's not at all the same thing.

In seriousness, I'm convinced of my own logical arguments (I wouldn't make them otherwise) and unless someone wants to tear them apart and change my mind, I don't really have anything to say until we get a replacement or night falls.

It's not silence. I've just posted all the content I have for now, and I'm waiting.

[Bookitty]

Also, just because I'm looking for a replacemeny doesnt mean you need to be all silenty.

Hmmm, I didn't feel defensive. I just don't have anything further to say, and I was explaining my silence to Nocmen, who apparently felt we were all too quiet based on his above post. It was a response, not a defense, and not a very serious response, at that.

Do you have any criticism to make of my arguments, Setael (or anyone), while we wait for a replacement for TCS?

[Bookitty]

I don't agree that we should lynch one of the claimed players. I think probably one of them is lying. But I don't think both of them are. They both MAY be, but I don't believe they both are.

If we lynch FLoC, as you propose, and he is scum, that's great, but we have no further leads on his scumbuddy. Additionally, the remaining scum may kill Nanosauromo because the sole reason they were leaving him alive is to maintain FLoC's cover as the doc, and that won't be necessary anymore. If FLoC is town, then we're looking at no real clues as to the identity of the scum.

If we lynch Nanosauromo, as I think would be reasonable, and he is scum, that's great, but we have no further leads on his scumbuddy. Additionally, the remaining scum may kill FLoC because the sole reason they were leaving him alive was to explain Nano's continued existence, so we lose that protection as well. If Nano is town, and we lynched him, we just lynched our best source of information, and we don't have any better clues to the identity of the scum.

So no, I don't agree with your theory, Samruc. I think we learn much more by lynching one of the unclaimed (yes, even me). And the risks of being wrong are much lessened by doing so, in my opinion.

[Bookitty]

I guess we need to discuss whether or not we feel comfortable lynching one of the unclaimed without TCS's comment.

I personally don't think he is likely to disagree, based on previous postings. The problem arises if we don't have a replacement when the new day breaks.

It's not ideal, but it might be our best remaining option. I'm not happy about losing TCS's insight, but in the interest of keeping the game moving, I am okay with proceeding without him.

So I guess this is my okay to FLoC's question about dropping the hammer. I personally think it might be the best thing, given the situation.

What do the rest of you think?

[Bookitty]

What I do NOT want is to know exactly who the claimed doc is going to protect.

Protect TCS, Setael, or Nanosauromo. Do not tell us who you're going to protect, please. Use your own best judgment. If we're lucky we might avoid a nightkill, or force the scum to kill one of the unclaimed to guarantee their kill.

As always, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't want the scum knowing exactly who the doc will protect. We have three potential targets. Let's keep them guessing, if we can.

[Bookitty]

Would it be unfair to ask Setael if she'd be willing to replace TCS? She knows the game already, and I think she might be willing if we ask very nicely.

[Bookitty]

Nano:

It's possible you're a naive cop, considering that you've had only innocent results, or that Samruc is the godfather. I think the first is rather unlikely. I think the second is possible, considering the situation and the known and confirmed powerroles so far.

TCS is confirmed town. I know my own alignment. We can afford one mislynch by my calculations, therefore, we have these choices.

If we accept your investigation at face value and as being accurate, we should lynch FLoC. I'm sure Samruc would agree with this. Additionally, we'd gain information, because if FLoC is the doctor, and you've cleared Samruc, either Samruc is the godfather, or you're not the cop. It then comes down to whom TCS's replacement or myself find more believable (because I think that at that point only one of us would remain, logically).

If we don't accept your investigation at face value, we should lynch either you or Samruc. Samruc may be the godfather. He argued very strongly not to lynch one of the unclaimed, and YagamiLight was scum, so... it seems to me that lynching Samruc nets us a certain amount of information either way. If he is the godfather, we've won. If he's town, then we have a situation where FLoC, if he's faking being the doc, cannot kill you, so you get one more investigation. It means that only TCS's replacement or myself could be the targets of the NK, if FLoC is scum.

Additionally, if you are scum, anyone you claim to investigate, you must find an innocent on, because otherwise they'll know you're accusing them falsely and immediately vote for you. But if you find an innocent on one, the other one will know you're accusing them by default, so they'll immediately vote for you. Therefore you're in a no-win situation, in this case, as scum. Unfortunately, you're in a similar situation if you're actually the cop.

However, I think we only have one scum remaining. And I'm leaning toward the idea that it's Samruc, as the godfather. He fought very hard against lynching YagamiLight, and I think he was counting on you investigating him as the godfather.

Please, PLEASE pick apart my logic and tell me if I've made any mistakes or missed something. And I'm not putting any vote down til TCS's replacement is assigned and gives his or her input.

[Bookitty]

All right. I thought it might have been all right, considering that her role wouldn't have given her any special info, and would have saved time on someone else rereading.

Anyway, as I said, I don't want to place a vote til everyone has had their say, including our new replacement.

[Bookitty]

I'm pretty confident that Nano is genuinely a cop

Why, exactly? He's done three investigations on people, two of them on dead people. I'm not sure what you're basing this confidence on.

[Bookitty]

We can afford one mislynch. So, assuming we mislynch today, here is the position we'll find ourselves in tomorrow, most likely:

If we lynch FLoC, and he's town:

Most likely pete d will be nightkilled. Nanosauromo, myself, and Samruc will be left. Nanosauromo will reveal his investigation, and each of us will be into the game of "Who do I find most believable?"

If we lynch Nanosauromo and he's the cop:

FLoC will be asked to protect pete d. This leaves only FLoC, myself, and Samruc as targets (regardless of FLoC's alignment) because if FLoC were scum, then he would still have to leave pete d alive in order to protect his cover story. Then we'd be in the position of having one confirmed townie (I still regard you that way, pete d-- nothing your predecessors has done has been indicative of scummy mason status) a claimed doctor and an unclaimed. The equation changes from one in three to one in two, which is more favourable to town, I think.

If we lynch Samruc and he's town:

FLoC will be asked to protect either pete d or Nanosauromo.

If FLoC protects pete d (or pretends to):

1. Nanosauromo will either have an investigation, or be NKed.

2. The only possible targets for the NK are myself, Nanosauromo, or FLoC.

3. If any of the three are killed, we have one confirmed townie, and the more favourable equation of choosing between one in two, rather than one in three.

If FLoC protects Nanosauromo (or pretends to):

1. Nanosauromo will have an investigation.

2. I think it likely that pete d will be NKed.

3. If he is, then we have the one in three, less desirable situation.

So, it's my argument (and please correct my logic if it's wrong) that we should not lynch FLoC at this point, because he's trapped by his own claim. If it's an honest claim, then FLoC is a target like the rest of us, but pete d will be safe for one more night. But even if it's a dishonest claim, FLoC is bound by it to protect pete d (someone who is as close to a confirmed townie as I think possible), or he outs himself as scum.

That seems to me to be a big advantage for town, to be choosing between one of two suspects with a confirmed townie, rather than one of three, at endgame.

I personally think the best play is to vote Samruc. (As a note, Samruc was voting for hand banana and then FLoC before any doc claim.) I think there's a solid chance he might be the godfather. Samruc has tunnelled on FLoC for a long while, and tried his best to deflect the town from voting for YagamiLight despite the fact that it was clearly the best play at that time, and YagamiLight did turn out to be scum.

As always, correct me if I'm wrong.

[Bookitty]

Because he's confirmed, and the rest of us are not.

You claim to be the cop, FLoC claims to be the Doc, Samruc and I haven't claimed. But pete d was part of a two-man mason team, one of which is dead, and thus his status is virtually confirmed -- as close as I think you can get, really. So if the scum leaves pete d alive, then town has a fifty-fifty shot at winning. If they kill him, it's one in three. (Of course, we have other evidence to go on, but this is strictly mathematical odds -- so please correct me if I'm wrong.)

I could be wrong, but that's what I think likely.

[Bookitty]

There's no way we could prevent the Doc from being killed, though, if it's a true claim. It's true that pete d has no special abilities, other than being the only confirmed townie, but that's huge in a three person end game. That's why I think he'd be the logical target, more so than FLoC.

Also, your logic would have been true last night as well, but FLoC wasn't killed then. They went for Setael, who was only mostly confirmed. That tends to bear out my logic, I think.

Incidentally, FLoC, who did you protect last night? I apologise if you said, and I missed it.

[Bookitty]

The question isn't what the scum can confirm, Nano. The question is what town can confirm.

If you had to choose who is town between ANYONE else and pete d, who would you pick? That's why we HAVE to protect pete d, and that's why we NEED to leave FLoC alive, regardless of who else we choose to lynch, because this gives us a much better chance of choosing right tomorrow, assuming we don't make the right choice today. (I remain hopeful that by lynching Samruc we'll win tonight.)

Here are the two scenarios (assuming a mislynch today), if we leave FLoC alive and ask him to protect pete d:

• 1. FLoC is scum, but can't kill pete d, because that would blow his cover as the doctor, so we go into tomorrow with one confirmed town and two unconfirmed people left. That gives us fifty fifty odds of picking right, and we'd be trusting pete d to choose correctly.
  
  2. FLoC is the doctor, and is either killed or left alive, but we STILL go into tomorrow with one confirmed town and two unconfirmed people left. Still fifty fifty odds.

If we go any other way, we're left with one in three odds assuming pete d is killed. So I really don't think killing FLoC over killing pete d is more advantageous to scum.

If you see any mistakes, please point them out. I think my calculation of the odds is correct, though.

[Bookitty]

I intend to vote for Samruc, I think. I want one more reread before I place my vote, but I think that's where it's going to land.

Clearly I will not vote for pete d. I won't vote for FLoC for reasons already explained. I will not vote for myself.

I am left with a choice between Nanosauromo and Samruc. If Nanosauromo is a cop, then either FLoC is scum, or Samruc is the godfather. Samruc fought against the YagamiLight lynch fairly hard, and while it's surely possible that town would defend someone they thought to be innocent, scum has a much stronger reason for wanting to defend scum.

Nanosauromo's gambit of claiming cop would have been a risky one for scum, as was FLoC's... and the lack of counterclaims makes them more believable as time goes on. On the other hand Samruc (and myself) both have not claimed. Samruc has an innocent from Nano, but I believe they can't be both be scum (I think we likely have only one scum left). The lack of counterclaim, along with Samruc's attempt to deflect from someone now known scum, makes me believe that Samruc may well be the godfather.

[Bookitty]

After my reread, I still remain convinced that Samruc is the right choice.

unvote; vote Samruc

[Bookitty]

In light of this unexpected development, FLoC, who did you protect last night? And Nano, what were your results on your investigation?

[Bookitty]

Okay. I'm town, I think I've done my best for town. Ultimately it will be up to others to decide what they think of my play.

I'm left with wondering whether FLoC or Nanosauromo is scum.

If Nanosauromo is scum, then FLoC has been the doc, and has protected Nanosauromo. Nanosauromo's investigations have yet to hit scum. He investigated part of a Mason pair when other people (notably my predecessor, at that point) were far more suspicious.

However, if FLoC is scum, then Nanosauromo shouldn't be alive at this point. Why would scum leave an investigating cop alive for so long, especially considering that FLoC was asked to protect other people at various points?

I just don't see how that makes sense logically.

unvote; vote Nanosauromo

[Bookitty]

Nano, why are you completely disregarding the possibility of a godfather in this game?

[Bookitty]

I'm not certain what we gain from going to night again. Certainly I don't mind being investigated, but I know my alignment, and Nano finding me "guilty" as he hinted he intended to won't change the fact that I'm innocent. So I personally don't gain any further information from one more night. If pete d thinks it would be helpful, I'm willing, but I'm not seeing the advantage right now.

We know there's only one scum remaining. Otherwise, they would have NKed and won the game. I'm certain that either Nanosauromo or FLoC is the remaining scum. I've explained why my vote is where it is.

Nanosauromo apparently was certain enough of my guilt, despite the possibility of a godfather, to vote me originally, so I suspect I'm either his primary suspect, or he's scum.

So, what I'd like, if possible, is for FLoC and Nanosauromo to make their cases on their primary suspect. I've explained my case on Nanosauromo already. I don't see a reason why scum would leave an investigating cop alive (before YagamiLight was lynched, anyway-- afterwards, it makes more sense). Additionally Nanosauromo's vote seems really suspicious to me, but not quite as suspicious as his unvote under pressure and his new "no-lynch" plan. If he thought I might be innocent, why vote for me? If he was sure I was the scum, why vote no-lynch?

I'm not going to unvote, but I would like more information before we lynch. Responses would be most appreciated.

[Bookitty]

I'm willing to vote no lynch, if FLoC and Nanosauromo are willing to explain their case against their current primary suspect, and if FLoC verifies that he will continue protecting pete d. If we are going to night, I'd like the new day to have more information for pete d to analyse.

I think it's a fair exchange, especially considering I believe the reason that Nanosauromo wants a no lynch is this:

Nanosauromo came out with a vote on me early. When I failed to see the logic in that, and pointed out my previous case against Nano, FLoC agreed and voted with me. At this point, Nano became nervous. I believe he felt that with his innocent on FLoC, that FLoC would agree with him and vote for me. When that didn't happen, Nano didn't present a case on me, he didn't argue for his own innocence or my guilt. He came up with a new plan, involving a "no-lynch" and an investigation of me. It's my opinion that if we go to night, I die. I am okay with that, so long as FLoC continues to protect pete d, because I thought that would happen last night too. I guess I sold the "more desirable one in two" position a little too well.

I think that Nano thought that due to having "innocent results" on everyone else, he could easily persuade a lynch on me, and then win after the night kill. Since that didn't happen, I think he'll eliminate me tonight, or find me "guilty".

I am certain, for myself, that Nano is either lying, or FLoC is the godfather. I believe that Nano is lying (and may well be the godfather too).

All of that said, I'm willing to go along with a no-lynch.

[Bookitty]

Oh, and by way of explaining why Nanosauromo's investigation is useless at best:

I'm not the godfather. (I'm vanilla town, in case I hadn't said before.) But, there's no possibility of me being regular scum, either. Logically, I have to be what I say I am, or I would have to be the godfather. There is no "regular scum" option, and here's why.

Last night we directed FLoC to protect pete d. That left Nanosauromo wide open as a nightkill target, even more so than the previous night where FLoC was protecting one of three people. If there was any possibility of Nanosauromo actually being able to detect the final scum, why leave him alive? So either Nanosauromo is scum, or we have a godfather in this game.

However, I also recall FLoC making some requests to be investigated, which is risk-free if you're the godfather. And I find Setael's killing, when we'd asked that one of three people be protected (and not to be told which) to be a fairly lucky guess on scum's part. Unless the person "protecting" was doing the killing. Hmmm.

unvote

while I do a reread. Thoughts, comments, utter destruction of my logical argument always welcome.

[Bookitty]

I still think Nanosauromo is the scum. I see no reason for his vote, except that he thought that as the last uninvestigated person (I'm not counting pete d, for obvious reasons) I would be an easy mark for lynching and a quick win.

I don't see a single reason why, if FLoC was scum, he wouldn't have nightkilled Nanosauromo when he was asked to protect someone else. It only makes sense. Additionally, if FLoC was looking for a quicklynch, why would he vote for Nano, rather than for me? Leaving Nano alive to clear himself only makes sense if FLoC then uses that as a reason to vote me. If Nano is scum, then none of his investigations clear anyone, including FLoC.

I don't see a single reason for the no-lynch (as opposed to arguing a case against me) except that Nano intends to NK me and pursue his case by claiming FLoC must be the godfather. And I'm okay with the no-lynch, despite this, but I think it basically proves Nano is scum, and his claim as cop is a daring and very effective gambit, if not a game-winning one.

Ultimately, regardless of whether we decide to no-lynch or to lynch Nano, I think Nano is scum, and my vote isn't going to anyone else. But I presented the case against FLoC because others might see it differently, and I didn't want to omit facts relevant to the situation.

[Bookitty]

Pete d, I thought it best to respond to your post with a full analysis on both the suspects, and my views on them.

Some things I found suspicious on a reread of Nanosauromo:

Pre-cop claim:

Right now we have (presumably) 3 scum and 9 townies. If we lynch you today, then yes it will confirm your non-scumminess. However, it will also change the scum-to-town ratio. making it 3 to 8. Then the scum kill someone on night 1, and when Day 2 dawns, we'll have 3 scum to only 7 townies, and no information gained. (Apart from investigations by the Cop.)

Possible trying to fish for a cop claim. But also possibly trying to deflect suspicion that he is the cop. Not breadcrumbing that I can see.

Comments to 007Flash's "manson" claim: "Alrighty then...", but later: "Okay, I'm really confused. Could someone direct me to where this "Mason claim" occurred?" He was there for it, but he doesn't remember when it happened? Or he didn't read any of the postings in between?

Some very brief content-free postings.

Claims cop under pressure of lynching.

I am a cop. On night 1 I investigated IH and got an innocent result. His (unfortuate) death confirms my sanity.

I realize the fact that I'm claiming cop after my only investigatee is dead makes the claim slightly unbelivable, but that's just my luck.

Posts this: "Meanwhile, who does everyone think I should investigate tonight?" and then ignores the response, preferring to investigate one half of a claimed Mason pair. Pretty unhelpful. (Nano has yet to hit scum with his investigations, but he's twice hit dead people.)

This seems really scummy: "Hm... both people I investigated turned up dead. Maybe I'm a vig and don't know it?"

But notably, THIS quote seems exceptionally scummy in retrospect:

there is either no cop in this game, or there is a real cop who knows you are mafia and is waiting to figure out the third scum before busting you

And what would the "real cop" gain from waiting to bust me?

If the "real cop" even exists,

me being alive makes it less likely that he will get doc protection. Furthermore, he'd be letting a known (to him) scum live. If there were a "real cop," he would have busted me long before now. I am the real cop.

I suppose it is possible that you are some kind of cop/vig but if so I think you're a scum cop/vig.

What would be the point of having a scum cop/vig? If anyone I investigated was going to die anyway, and I was scum, wouldn't that just make me an SK?

Before this day ends, I'd like you to embed a code in one of your posts that says who you will be investigating. That way you can at least prove to us that you're not just picking the person who was NK'd as the person you "investigated."

You're asking me to breadcrumb? Fine, I have no problems with that. However, keep in mind that the scum may find and decipher the code before they send in their night choice.

"Real cop," if you're out there, go ahead and counterclaim. We'll see who turns up as scum first.

(emphasis mine)

When first questioned (by me) about his investigation of Simenon, Nano gave this as his reason:

Nanosauromo, why did you choose to investigate Simenon in preference to any other candidates for investigation? Did he seem most suspicious to you?

In a word, yes. He had a very irregular posting style; sometimes they were detailed analysis, sometimes they were one-liners. His posts were the hardest to understand. Due to a combination of this and gut instinct, I had been suspicious of him for a while, and wanted to know the truth once and for all.

But later, he has a different reason:

Think about it: If we have a claimed mason pair, and one of them turns up as town by investigation, then we pretty much have two confirmed townies. Good, yes?

Insinuates that Setael and I are scum with this (fair enough in my case, not so much in hers, by that point):

Now I'm fairly certain that Yagami is scum. If he was innocent, the real scum would have hammered him by now.

Either that or the two remaining scum are already voting for him. (i.e., Setael and Bookitty)

Then retracts it with this: "I wasn't saying that Setael and Bookitty were scum. I was merely pointing out that they were the two non-Nano people voting for him."

FLoC requests investigation, and Nano declines with this, expressing certainty that FLoC is the doc:

Because that would be wasting an investigation. I know I'm not scum, so the only reason I'm still alive is that the doc (you) is protecting me.

Another thing, the scum might go after you tonight (killing the doc is a good thing for them), so that would just be another investigatee who turns up dead.

Tries to argue that FLoC protect him rather than TCS(pete d, now) or Setael: "But if I die due to lack of the doc's protection then you'll never get to hear my investiagation."

Argues that having a confirmed townie in endgame is no advantage to town:

But with his partner dead, pete d is essentially a vanilla townie.

In the case of confirmed townie vs. claimed Doc, the Doc is more likely to prevent the scum from winning. (This assumes that FLOC is town.)

If the scum is one of the unclaimed, then me, pete d, and the other unclaimed have equal odds of being killed, with FLOC having slightly higher odds.

And what I've already said about voting me instantly, dismissing the idea that FLoC could be the godfather even though the possibility of a godfather had been well discussed in Samruc's case already. And his shift, when this ploy did not lead to my instant lynching, to arguing for a no-lynch (which may well be our best bet, even though I'm pretty sure it would lead to my death, considering that FLoC HAS to continue protecting pete d).

That's my case against Nanosauromo. Next up, FLoC.

As always, if there are errors, factual or logical, please correct them.

[Bookitty]

Oh, by the way, if someone wants to do the same on Heatherlou/myself, that would be good. I can't do so unbiasedly but certainly I am not cleared or confirmed town and the more information pete d has, the better off he's going to be.

[Bookitty]

Hand banana starts out ridiculously scummy. In light of his later doc claim, this makes more sense. I have heard this theory about playing the doctor scummy to avoid attracting the nightkill, and perhaps hand banana subscribed to this, or perhaps he's just scum.

Votes Haschel (now known scum) but doesn't build a case, simply saying "seems like he's trying to blame someone by exaggerating a very , very weak scumtell." This looks like classic distancing, giving a weak reason and a vote to someone in no danger.

This seems odd, not sure how to read this:

what we know so far>
that guy claimed mason.. it's both bad and good.
it's bad cause he outed a power role.
but it's good because i think we can trust this claim 100%. there was no reason for him to lie in that situation.
and if he stayed in the game, considering his style, i guess he would be either forced to claim, or maybe he would even get lynched... so i think, given the fact that he sucked, doing what he did heleped town much more than him staying in the game.

we now have 1 verified townie.
and wifom with mafia a doc (protecting him) should save him for NKing..

---
so.. to conclude.. : that guy only saved us some time and possibly prevented a power role mislynch. we're more than fine.
now we need to hunt some scum!

Points out to Simenon that his predecessor claimed mason (at least hand banana was paying attention) and then criticises Simenon for outing his mason buddy:

nice going simenon.. thanks to you, not only do i have no trace of scum on page 8 (cause this thread is made of one tirade long (by you) after the other), but we now possibly have 2 masons exposed, and no one even questioned your claim.

This seems pretty pro-town to me, considering that having both masons out seems a death sentence for at least one.

FLoC replaces in. His first substantive post:

OK.
1: I believe the mason claim, however, if not for it, I would consider LFR scummy, because he threw himself all around. Litterally, it seemed like between his large posts, he had called out half the players as scummy based on single posts.
2: Hand banana is a horrible player. I don't know what he was doing.
3: I did a quick read, and people kept mentioning questions to banana that were unanswered. I'd like somebody to point them out so that I can answer them
4: As for who I find scummy, I don't like how luna is playing. She hasn't said much, and what she said wasn't really good.
5: I inherently want to believe the masonry, but another possibility is that they are scum claiming mason. I don't necessarily believe this, but it is a chance that should be remembered, that the masons aren't perfectly cleared. There may not be a real masonry in the game. I don't know much about setups here. I'm not sure about this, but we shouldn't just let those 2 slide through.
6: Anything more, just ask!

This seems pretty neutral to me. FLoC is wishywashy on the mason claim, at first saying he believes it, then saying he wants to believe it. Moderately scummy.

This is worse: "most people read as neutral / town to me, with the masons as town. I don't think that anyone is really most scummy. I don't like how luna posts very infrequently with little content, same with Daxam. They seem scummiest to me." Overly conciliatory to everyone except luna (Setael replaced her) and Daxam (town as well).

Votes Daxam when under pressure himself, and finally claims: "sighs. Alright guys, you outed me, both for my bad play and my predecessor's. I'm the doctor."

I don't like this appeal to emotion at all, when FLoC is pressured again: "Do you guys really want to lose our doctor? Especially waste a lynch on him? Crazy I say, crazy."

[Note relating to both Nanosauromo and FLoC: Their votes for Haschel (Nano voted Haschel in the random phase, hand banana did so a bit later, neither vote created significant pressure) are not really relevant, because Haschel was vigged, not lynched. Just as a reminder.]

I really didn't like this post, and I commented it at the time:

samruc, you seem to be thinking as scum quite a lot here, and rather convincingly.

The doctor's entire job is to think like scum and protect against their probable actions. So this isn't a statement I'd think a competent doctor would make.

The comments already noted about wishing to be investigated to clear himself don't look good in light of the likelihood of a godfather in the game. We had a town roleblocker, a one shot vig, and two masons and either a doc or a cop. That seems a bit unbalanced unless there's a godfather in the game. FLoC could have wished to be investigated either to clear himself (though at this point, I think there's no way to clear anyone) or because he knew he was investigation proof. For me, that's WIFOM.

I don't discount the idea that FLoC is siding with me because of my past suspicions of Nanosauromo, counting on the fact that I was tunnel-vision focused on Nano as a target. His certainty that I'm town, while flattering, may well be an attempt to buddy up to lessen my suspicions of him.


For me, it comes down to the fact that Nano's investigations have been as little help to town as is possible (even when an investigation was specifically requested on Haschel, now known scum or Heatherlou, who I replaced, Nanosauromo investigated a mason instead), and FLoC has seemed to protect the targets he's been asked to.

That's my take on things. As always, I could be wrong.

[Bookitty]

Okay. The last two posts have pointed something out to me.

One of the biggest scumtells I look for is being overly conciliatory. I was hoping that my lengthy analyses of both my suspects would elicit some sort of response that I could use to test my own theory. That didn't happen, but something else just did.

FLoC, if you are town, then Nano and I are your suspects. (Pete d can't be, even stretching the limits of what's possible, in my view. I see no reason why a scum mason would point out the possibility of his being a scum mason.)

If Nano is a cop, he's going to investigate me if we go to night. Chances are I'll die (I think rule 13, "If you do not submit a night action within a reasonable time frame, no action will occur." may have stopped the NK last night) but if I were scum, I'd have no such fears. If I were identifiable scum (i.e., not the Godfather) then I would have had to be a great fool to leave him alive to investigate me. And I couldn't guarantee that he wouldn't have investigated me, and not you.

Therefore, I'm either town, or I'm the godfather. So saying this: "Also, if we no-lynch, then we find out whether or not boo is scum. So no-lynching may be right" is absolutely an effort to please everyone. I'm town, but then Nano would be scum, and I was already pretty convinced of his guilt. We can't both be town, if you are. So first you say, I'd prefer to lynch Nano (pleasing me) and then you say we could go to no-lynch and Nano the trustworthy cop could find out "whether or not boo is scum", pleasing Nano. That would make us both innocent, wouldn't it? And then who's left?

This changes things materially for me. Why be so conciliatory, if you're certain enough that Nano is scum to put a vote on him? Why trust his investigation of me, unless you're certain Nano is town? Do you have any opinions that don't depend on the most recent argument made?

I'm thinking pete d is right, and I've been wrong. I want pete d, as the sole objective party, to look over my reasoning, and tell me if he thinks I'm reading too much into these last two posts, but this just seems an extreme level of fence-sitting to me. Definitely reason to rethink my opinion.

[Bookitty]

I'm here. Waiting for pete d or Nanosauromo to weigh in. I've said my piece, and while I admit to reading and rereading the thread, I'm not coming up with anything I haven't said before.

Nano, do you have any comments on this? I asked pete d to look at my logic because I think his is the only truly objective viewpoint, but I'd like to hear from you as well.

[Bookitty]

On the thought that dead men can tell SOME tales, some analysis on Haschel Cedricson, now known scum:

I'm not on the Faeren/banana wagon for two reasons: I really don't like what little play luna has given us, and I'm not going to run up a replacement for the shady actions of a predecessor, particularly not when the wagon has grown large at a fairly significant speed. Don't get me wrong, I'm going to be watching Faeren closely, but I'm also wary of luna and IH, so I'm not comfortable with voting for Faeren yet.

When FLoC was near a lynch: "Wait a minute, this looks like an attempt to get pressure off of you and onto Daxam." followed by a vote on FLoC. Scum afraid not to be on this wagon?

Unvotes at the doc claim.

Looking back at everyone playing this game, I thought that Nanosauromo had been replaced, but I realized that he's still playing. In fact, he responded to every prod, ensuring that he not get replaced. However, look at his opinions about the masonry, FLoC, and the recent analysis of Daxam by setael. Oh, wait, you CAN'T look at his opinions because HE HASN'T POSTED ANY.

(followed by a vote for Nano.)

Right. I tend to follow the doctrine that the third person on a bandwagon might be scum and the fourth person on a bandwagon probably is scum. Unfortunately, our third Daxam vote was FLoC, who is our claimed doctor, and the fourth vote was Adam, our confirmed mason. Now, I'm surprised that FLoC is still alive, since usually doc's can't self-protect, so IGMEOY, FLoC.

Vote: heatherlou for putting Daxam at -1 so quickly, as her vote looked like bandwagon-hopping to me.

(I replaced heatherlou)

These posts are almost exactly why I voted Nano at the end of the last day; just as soon as all the interesting stuff went down, Nano stopped saying anything to help make sense of things.

Heather and Nano are my two top suspects, although it is suspicious that FLoC is still alive. Damn, WIFOM is hard.

Anyhoo, I would like to hear everyone else's thoughts on heather and Nano, as they seem to be the two best bets for today.

It doesn't look like heather is going to be lynched, but that's okay, because Nano was my second choice anyways.

Votes Nano. Unvotes after the cop claim.

Moves on to FaerieLord with this:

My main three suspects have been you, Nano, and heather. Nano claimed cop, and heather probably won't be here before deadline. That leaves you.

To me, this looks like Haschel distancing from FLoC and actually pushing a case on Nano. So from that reread, I'd be voting FLoC. I'll do Yagami next.

[Bookitty]

Yagami is harder to pry any opinions from. But here's what I gleaned:

Hand Banana, I think that claim is on the fringes of WIFOM, he had no reason to lie to us if he was town, but if he was scum, then he could have claimed anything so as not to make the game harder for his partners.

(FLoC replaced Hand Banana.)

In other news, Heather, your last two posts were a vote on Hand Banana for not talking much, then saying that you admit that you need to be more active. Any reason keeping your vote on Hand Banana, I mean Haut Boy, Inarticulation, Lunalovegood, and you have posted less, plus, at the time there were better reasons to vote, such as Daxam putting someone at -2.

(I replaced Heatherlou.)

Questions Adam the Amazing's (pete d, now) vote on hand banana (FLoC):

Um, you've never voiced any thoughts or suspicions about Handbanana, you've never even mentioned his name until this post, so why are you voting him?

Points out his top three suspects:

Well, Simenon, right now my top three are...
1)IH for what seems to be a Random FoS of a claimed Mason.
2)HandBanana/Farren, for saying he 100% believes the mason claim, and contradicting it with his wondering on why no one questioned the claim (I still do).
3)Heatherlou, though Adam thinks she is playing town, I still don't like her post were she says she likes Daxam for putting the L-2 vote and giving us something to talk about, given that we were talking about it being scummy.

Then consoles FLoC with this:

Your not scummy for anything you did, your scummy for your predecessors actions. There is a point where he said he is 100% sure, and another where he wonders why no one questioned it.

Votes IH:

I'm not on Faeren/banana, but have already commented on it. Also, I'm voting IH because, like I said, I don't like his FoS, without reason, but this is only temporary (until he posts if I like it). And yes, I know he said he would post this week and the week isn't up yet, which is why this is temporary.

Argues a wishywashy case for FLoC:

First, there are three possibly outed Townies, you, AtA, and Faeren. None of them are for sure, until someone dies. You and AtA are definately the most confirmed, but there is still a possibility that you two are scum. Now, Faeren claimed doc, so he may be scum, and that's why he wasn't killed, or they may be tryimng to frame him so we lynch him. With the knowledge of a possible doc, I don't think the scum would go after a claimed mason, because of the doc WIFOM of being protected. So we don't necessarily know if any of that is true.

And this looks bad for FLoC:

Samruc, why are you going after the claimed doc? We really should do as Setael said, and give him a couple days before we decide he isn't.

But then defends Nano when his investigation choice is questioned, albeit weakly.

I agree with TCS about Setael's plan and Nanos, because I think I would investigate one of the Masons, because with both of them claimed no one looked twice at them except me (or so I thought). It is possible for both of you to have been scum TCS, and with you both agreeing, no one would have wanted to lynch the masons, and you could have made it fairly far had you been scum. About Setael's plan, that wouldn't help solve wether he is scum or not because like TCS said, the scum could find it if he were telling the truth, and NK the person, should he be scum, he only has to point it out to his scum mates, and they could decide if they want to let the person live (say he investigated one of them and came up innocent), or kill them and have another investigation on a dead town.

Tries to push for Nano's lynch in preference to his own.

Even though Samruc is second on my list, I have no case for him (and would actually prefer him to live) or bookitty. Right now I agree that it is probably best to lynch someone who is not claimed, but the most scummy to me right now is Nanos, our claimed cop. Which is why I'm not posting a case on him.

His comments on FLOC in a pbpa:

As for Faeren, everything comes from who he replace, HB. The first thing is post 146, after the second quote. Brushing off what Simenon said with the comment about him making stuff up, when Simenon had quoted posts then asked questions/made comments about them. Also, his next post (post 180) where he doesn't even want to read Simenon's post because he is confirmed town. Seems to me that Scum wouldn't want to read them because hey wnt to find scummy behavoir in town that they can lynch, where the town is going to want to know what the confirmed thinks just as much as anyone else if not more (because as confirmed it is known to not be someone trying to remove town). With Faeren himself, nothing really stands out except his doc claim. I personally believe you should give a little leeway to a person, holding them to their predecessors actions, but not as strongly.

And Nano:

Nanos, the last of the people to cover. Up until he claims he lurked. He lurked so bad at one point that he quotes and comments on the mason claim, then his next post he doesn't remeber it. Lurking is not scummy in it's own right, but it does make it hard to get a town or scum read on the person. I'm suspicious of him because both of his targets have wound up dead. It is possible he was unlucky, but it is awfully unlucky. One thing I just noticed though, if he is cop, then he might be naive, as he got innocent with both results.

The dying words of a scum:

And on a serious note, my last word of advice. After I'm gone, look closely at the two claimed unconfirmed. They seem more likely scum compared to Samruc and Boo, and definitely compared to TCS and Setael.

Trying to present us with WIFOM.

And this:

Actually, Samruc's plan makes sense. I think enough of us believe either FLoC or Nano are lying. But something not mentioned Samruc, D4 is going to have more or less the same problem regardless of the plan chosen. The only difference is that in your's, he may give a guilty or innocent result on me instead of you or Boo. The thing is, I feel only one of them has fake-claimed, not both, and that we have one scum in the unclaimed as well.

Warning against leaving Nano alive, so far as I can figure, because he'll give false investigation results on us to win the game for scum.

Hmmm, all of this points to FLoC. None of it really points to Nano, though Yagami avoided speaking to Nano for a long time, which sometimes is a tell. Still, I'm going to admit I was probably wrong about Nano. Which makes me sad, because he keeps voting for me, but I think I'm going to have to

unvote; vote FLoC

I'm still willing for no-lynch if that's what others think is best, but this is the best use of my vote right now, I think.

[Bookitty]

Why do you believe I am scum, Nano? I'd like to hear your case against me. I think I've built a pretty good case against FLoC, and as yet no one has built any case against me (even based on Heatherlou's actions, some of which I found pretty questionable).

So, what has convinced you so thoroughly that I'm scum? I've built my cases and put them up here, to be picked apart and analysed. I would like to see your case against me, if such exists.

[Bookitty]

Additionally, I've said I'm willing for no-lynch, if that's the only solution to this impasse, so that you can investigate me. You'll find that I'm town (and probably dead, but I don't mind that so much) but if I survive, then you'll be in the same position of knowing there's a godfather in the game, which I think is the reasonable assumption anyway, and making your decision at that point. So if it's just that you haven't investigated me yet, I'd be happy to submit to that.

Fair enough?

[Bookitty]

I'm vanilla town. I've said so repeatedly. What's your case against me, Nano?

Yagami WAS scum. I pushed the case on Yagami, remember that? Why would I have done that, when I could have pushed a case on Samruc just as easily, using the same logic? You presented it as either or (Yagami is scum, OR scum was voting for him) so why are you changing that now just to make an accusation out of it?

I told you already that an investigation on me was pointless, Nano. I made the same argument that you now have reached about investigation-vulnerable scum not leaving you alive last night. I don't understand why you're currently so certain I'm scum, without any evidence, but I KNOW you're not scum, because if you were you would have hammered FLoC and won the game. So stop, look at the cases presented, and think about it.

If you truly think I'm scum, then you're just wrong. I've done my best for town, and if that isn't enough evidence on my behalf, then I can't magically produce more. At least I'm sure I'm voting correctly now. You just proved it to me, as I said, because you'd have hammered and won if you weren't town.

You're not getting my vote no matter what. Pete d isn't getting my vote no matter what. So FLoC is scum, and I'm sure of it now.

If there's something specific you want answered, I'll happily do so. But I can't answer a non-case on me. I've made my case on FLoC, and I invite you to make yours on me.

confirm vote: FLoC

[Bookitty]

I have to say, Setael and pete d won this game for town, in my opinion. Setael, with her logical deduction and her brilliant night vig, and pete d for coming into the game and instantly seeing that FLoC was scum, something I probably would NEVER have figured out.

I'm sorry for thinking you were scum for so long, Nano. FLoC fooled me for a really long time.

Thanks, Nocmen! This was the most fun game I've played on this site so far

[Bookitty]

Setael had already made her night kill when I entered the game. That gave us two confirmed townies, which was a huge advantage right off the bat. Without Setael, I don't think we'd have won.

FLoC not killing Nanosauromo was a brilliant move on his part, despite being hugely risky, because I simply couldn't understand why scum would leave an investigating cop alive when there was at least one identifiable scum out there. I couldn't see how that would be beneficial for them, and it blinded me to some pretty obvious wishy-washiness on FLoC's part, because I was so certain that scum wouldn't leave itself vulnerable like that.

So if not for pete d's arguments (and FLoC's two posts that seemed just so contradictory back-to-back) I'd never have been able to get past that. I did a lot of post-sifting and quoting, but Setael and pete d had the real insights, in my opinion. (Oh, and Samruc, who was RIGHT ALL ALONG.)