Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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hey kids. kindly allow me 96 hours to read the thread and germinate some insight...-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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like killing someone with your bare hands, it gets easier the more times you do it ;)Korlash wrote:I remember once when I replaced into a 43 page long game...-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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logick
magicis tomagickaslogicis tologick
is is a common mistake though. :)-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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skimmed the thread.vote: KorlashI'm going with my first impression this time.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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could the other townies please vet this mist for mistakes? I tried to list everyaction1 posted after post 57.
1on a list, Adel wrote: 58: miztef: unvote vote: korlash
67: mexal: unvote, vote: sudo_nym
68: korlash: FoS mexal
69: sudo: unvote, vote: mexal
81: ckd: Vote miztef
92: jitsu: FoS:miztef, mexal
106: votecount:
curiouskarmadog (1): jerubbaal
Korlash (2): Abstract Actuary, Miztef
Miztef (1): curiouskarmadog
Mexal (1): Sudo_Nym
Not Voting (6): Jayalay, Anata112, GunslingerKB, Korlash, oEJo, Jitsu
121: oEJo: vote mexal
129: miztef: unvote
137: jerubbaal: unvote, vote sudo
145: sudo: unvote
160: Jitsu: FoS:anata
177: Mexal: unvote
181: GunslingerKB: Vote: Jitsu
182: oEJo: Unvote
192: GunslingerKB: Unvote: Jitsu vote Sudo
222: miztef: unvote (redundant)
238: mexal: vote: jayalay
239: Abstract Actuary: Unvote: Korlash Vote: Miztef
242: Jitsu: vote: anata112
244: mexal: unvote, vote: anata112
245: jerubbaal: unvote, vote anata112
316: miztef: vote: curiouskarmadog
321: jerubbaal: unvote, vote: miztef
344: miztef: unvote vote: anata
373: mexal: unvote, vote: miztef
374 jitsu: unvote, vote: miztef
393: Jitsu: unvote
423: jitsu: vote anata
449: gunslinger: unvote
470: gunslinger: vote anata
472: korlash: unvote: vote: gunslinger
473 gunslinger: unvote: anata Vote:korlash
477: ckd: fos gunslinger
482: korlash: unvote
513: adel: vote korlashanactionI define as any verb posted in bolded letters along with a player's name.Vote. FoS, HoS,andunvoteare allactionsby my definition,ifthey are posted in bold letters along with a player's name-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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vibes. activity level. noise:signal ratio. you fit my profile of the helpful mafia goon.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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you sound like scum typing for your own amusmentKorlash wrote:WRONG! When I am mafia I find that I am actually a very unhelpful goon, but tend to be very good when I am say the mafia RB or the Don... saying I am a helpful goon obviously means you missed something!-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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nah, I think I'll lurk for the rest of the day, leaving my vote on you because you are the person I think is scum. I don't feel like explaining why the sky often appears blue today, and I don't feel like laying out my case against you.Korlash wrote:Now how about a couple comments on the game so far, feelings on every player, main points against me, The usual replacement stuff ;P-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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So the only reason keeping you from voting for me before was your fear of casting a OMGUS vote? So you waited until I gave you an excuse to vote for me, and you are even admitting it?Korlash wrote:Ok... Now that I have a reason other then OMGUS
Some friendly advice: if you are going to participate in a game that allegedly relies upon logic, you may want to familiarize yourself with "confirmation bias" so you will be able to self-correct, and think more clearly.
The Wikipedia does a decent job of defining it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
You can go ahead and unvote me now. I don't think anyone will really mind.
:)-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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You are citing a game that is still in progress. Do you want to get modkilled?Korlash wrote:Man voting me just because I got you killed in another game... Who's really biased here... ><
You really shouldn't type so much.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Jitsu wrote:@Adel: You mentioned you skimmed the thread and voted him on first impression, along with some other general reasons. Are you up to date on the game yet?In #536, You say about Korlash "you are the person I think is scum". Is he the only one you find scummy right now, or is he just your number one suspect at the moment?nope, Ididask for 96 hours...I have other questions, but I want to wait until you are fully caught up.aren't his reaction informative? I think sothanks!-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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please note this is his "sincere" reaction when caught doing something wrong. notice how well the syntax, tone, and structure fits in with the rest of his posts. It is obvious to me that he is trying to get away with something.Korlash wrote:Citing what game? Where? When?
Is this the game where we had that long long discussion about this? I keep forgetting...
As for your question, No i do not want to get modkilled.. I want to know any reason why you are voting me other then "You feel like it"
And you should type more...-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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this is the scummiest post I've read so far, by any player. I'm caught up through #449. Korlash is scum, and knows who isn't scum. He didn't want to push the wagon on Anata- he wanted to be on the record warning against it.Korlash wrote:Um... I honestly laughed at that... Sorry... I need to sit down for a second... Ouch my spaghetti...
Ok... Is it just me or is the quote:
Not the funniest damn thing you have ever heard...Gunslinger wrote:Why else would you be jumping on the weaker player that has made some dumb posts? (Ie: Me)
Ahh man... My head hurts... Ohhh that was great...
Listen man... No matter how newb you are if you make a dumb post expect to get hounded on it.
Ok... where was I...
Slightly OMGUSish... But reasonable... I appreciate you focusing on a more active player... Props for that...
Now how to completely turn the tables on you... decisions... decisions... Oh I haven't had such a hard time choosing something since the Mace was invented.. How I loved the Flail... anyways...
Um... I pointed out where you agreed we should let the replacements come in and then you more or less go back on that as your reasons to vote. So either you have no reasons or you have contradicted yourself...
I jumped on Jitsu kinda... Not a full on vote but his vote more or less started my earlier rants against the Anata Bandwagon... As for Mexal.. I more or less ignore him... =D
Newb =/= automatically towny or a free pass in this game. I could care less if this is your first game, you did something I felt was scummy and I called you on it. If you think being new is a good excuse then boy do you have the wrong game...Gunslinger wrote: You seem dire to make me look like scum, even though half the people in this game have realized im pretty much ust a newb. It seems as though you know Anata is scum, and that your trying to protect a teamate.
As for the teammate thing, not to get to WIFOM, but if I were Anata's partner I would use this as a perfect time to bus... I mean Replacement... Day 1... I am not exactly the most pro-town looking player so far... All in all it would make more sense that her partners would be pushing for her lynch... But as I said it becomes way too much WIFOM and I don't like to get too far into that.
Again... Stop falling back on your newbiness.. Feel confident.. that is key to a mafia game... No matter how dumb you may think you sound, be as confident as you can and you are more likely to win over the other players. That being said... Let me show you how it's done...Gunslinger wrote:Many people made clear posts about why Anata would be scum, and you just seemed to "fail to understand why she could be" Now it seems like your trying to tturn the attention from Anata onto me. Just because of some weak post i made.
*Clear throat*
I have clearly mentioned how I want the town to focus on active players. Attacking and voting replacements will get us no where.. there is no chance in hell we will lynch someone right now.. we have 3-4 people being replaced plus me, thats 5 townies (Potentially) not going to vote in a lynch. So... Not nearly enough people to lynch. So I feel we need to press the actives to squeeze as much info as we can right now or else risk a complete standstill. So yes, I would rather get the attention off her and onto you. I also would like to get it onto me (Quite frankly I feel I can totally dominate you in any back and forth attacks so I have no fear putting myself in the spotlight. No offense...)
So more or less thats my stand... As for the "Clear posts about why she is scum" thing... Those were 7 pages ago... Restate them now or wait for her replacement... Whether or not you feel the case has been stated, she has been inactive for half this dang game... half of your "case" is worthless because it more or less hangs on the fact "She gave no pro-town excuses for things she did" when in reality.. She barely gave any excuses at all because she has not been here...
Any case brought around after she asked for a replacement should not be used as a basis for a lynch. If you cannot understand where I am coming from by all means continue on with this. You guys could be the most lucky town in the world and have magically found a mafia member... But I feel the chances are more likely your all blowing it out of proportion or blindly following the scum on their anti-town crusade.
So... Let me throw up my case... and see what you guys think about it...
When you attack someone, you base a lot of your stuff on how that player reacts to it yes? So their reaction be it scummy or towny looking will direct how you think of them. at the same time, in most cases, if a player deliberately does not answer questions/attacks thrown at them then they seem scummy for not answering. BUT, when a player isUNABLE, I repeatUNABLETo respond to those attacks you more or less lose everything you were trying to get from attacking them in the first place.
See half of what you guys are calling a "Clear case" on Anata is speculation about what she "MIGHT" have meant... Because we do not have her explanations on things, we do not get to see what her excuses/reasons are for what she did and so we are all rolling with what WE THINK happened. This is very dangerous people... You are all pushing for a lynch of a defenseless towny(Not saying she is town, just a term I use to describe anyone I am unsure about... better safe then sorry)
And yes I know if Anata comes up scum I look bad, but I don't care about myself. I care about this town and this town winning! And so I do not want us to end day 1 by taking a huge gamble and missing out on info from the people being replaced...
While I will say Anata is probably the "MOST SUSPICIOUS" person, I do not see enough for a lynch... Not in a long shot... You guys had a case against her 8 pages ago, but it wasn't enough to lynch then.. so it damn sure isn't enough to lynch now... So if you guys want to take a gamble go ahead. I only hope you wise up come tomorrow... And I really hope you do not make a huge mistake we regret for the rest of the game...
My vote sticks on you Gunslinger.. You rely too much on the fact you are "New" and have even admitted your posts are "weak and dumb."AnataSetael is therefor is an innocent.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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the vast, vast majority of Korlash's posts are nonsense spam posts like this one. Their major function is to clutter the thread and make it harder for townies to extract useful information.Korlash wrote:Most likely... Probably just waiting on a third person to replace... I would be happy to replace him
Wouldn't it be funny if he were mafia? Then I would have to play both sides... Like play pro-town for me and play pro-mafia for him... Kinda complicated but I would win no matter what! =D
wouldn't that mean I lose no matter what also D=
He has a very high post count in this thread, but his signal:noise ratio is about the lowest.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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only a fool will tempt the God
Korlash wrote:See unless you can specifically prove the game I "mentioned" is still active, which you cannot without citing it, You cannot prove I have done anything wrong. And even if it is still active, I did not link it, quote it, or even mention anything big other then the fact I helped to kill someone.*waits forlightning strikedeadly cave-in*-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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hmmm... takes more than four minutes analyze one. As a diagram, it visually represents information. This diagram documents the votes so far in this game, after the random voting phase.
It show who voted for whom, at what vote count. I find it to be a very useful reference for identifying patterns in voting including: conspicuous amounts of interaction, lack of interaction, vote following, vote hopping, lurking, and others. It also lets me see if a specific player likes to hop on a wagon early.
It contains far more information than literally dozens of your posts do.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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oh, and to me it show that despite your activity level, and the stupidity of your posts, and the 20 page length of this game, you have not had a scum-powered wagon on you today. If you were a townie, a sharp-minded scumbag would've ran at least a decent wagon on you by now.
If you were a power role you would've kept a lower profile - unless you are a far greater idiot than what I take you for.
So I conclude that scum haven't tried to get you lynched in 20+ pages of posts, despite having the chance to.Note that Sudo-nym's post containing the reasons why he is voting for Korlash seems scummy as hell to me. He may be a scum buddy irritated at Korlash for trying to engage me in debate like Korlash did. It will be interesting to see when or if he jumps of my shiny new Korlash wagon. I suspect that Sudo-nym is scum that was hoping to lurk through to most of the day and hop on a townie wagon with the last vote before the hammer.
I also conclude that you are not a power role.
I calculated the following odds based upon past games I've played in or read:
Korlash's chance of being Town-Aligned: ~28%
IfKorlash is Town-Aligned, the chance of him being a powerrole: ~15%
These are great numbers for a Day 1 lynch candidate! About the lowest I've ever seen.
I am all about lynching Korlash at this point. Partially, this is because my models for scum behavior become much weaker for day 1 that last much more than 25 pages. The sample size for 25+ page day 1 normal mini's is smaller than many recent games would seem to indicate.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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You asked me to lay out my case against you. You asked me to explain why I was voting for you- so I did - andthatis your response?
˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚
˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛
ˇˇˇˇˇhush....ˇˇˇˇˇchild, it is time for you to sleep the long sleep...ˇˇˇˇˇgo to sleep now Korlashˇˇˇˇˇ
˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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I've explained my case against you. Why are you still voting for me?Korlash wrote:And what the heck... I refused to vote for you and insted asked for a reason why you voted me. If I had voted there it would have been purely OMGUS... But instead of giving a reason you more or less admitted you had none... OR that you were refusing to give them... and so I now had a logical reason to vote you.
As for "Confirmation bias" you are way off. I had no intention of voting you before, as I said I merely wanted to find out why you voted me. So any vote then would be OMGUS and I find that to be a very bad reason to vote.
And now that I had a reason to vote I saw no reason not to.
And I do not even know why I am arguing this... either give a reason for your vote, and some input on the game so far, or I see no reason to take my vote off of you.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Just in case anyone missed it, this is what Korlash said when he voted for me:
Korlash wrote:
Ok... Now that I have a reason other then OMGUS,Adel wrote:nah, I think I'll lurk for the rest of the day, leaving my vote on you because you are the person I think is scum. I don't feel like explaining why the sky often appears blue today, and I don't feel like laying out my case against you.
Unvote:
Vote: Adel-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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errata: the above graph is for post 0 through post 563. The label that says "Posts 58-563" is incorrect.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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instead of sharing my true reasons and cases, I shared my data instead. I've put a stupid amount of work into this system over the last four months, and if I explained how the system works, the meta would shift, and my models would break. I want my system to work for more than just one game.
I figure a lynch of Korlash has almost a 75% chance of being true. I have a lot more trust in my models than I do in my judgment at this point.
Should you trust my models? of course not. That is why I've provided additional, more traditional, cases against him. From either perspective, he looks scummy enough to lynch. Korlash is a simple solution to this Day 1.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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I'll respond to this, because the last three diagrams really aren't that important. I look at them to help me determine who is active and who is passive. The scatter point graph is the best way to show who is an active player and who isn't. The difference between active and passive players makes a huge difference to my models. It is harder to tell the difference between passive and lurking players though.Miztef wrote: but using post count / word count????
You've got to be kidding me.
If you have any insight on who is a lurker, who is just passive, and who forgot about the game, that would be really helpful.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Korlash wrote:Theres a mafia RB too? o.O Now that role would work... cause then you would at least have some kind of understanding of who could be who... Instead of having to guess...
that is a classic example of a scumbuddy abandoning a scumbuddy's wagon. Why did Miztef feel the need to explain his decision with so many words?Miztef wrote:Unfortunately, seeing as you claimed, which is something I completely did not expect of you (as scum), I willunvote. I think it is unlikely you would be so bold as to claim roleblocker at this point if you were indeed scum. I don't believe you are the kind of player that can argue a counterclaim, and therefore would not risk claiming in the first place. It is of course possible you are mafia roleblocker, but I believe that role is unlikely in this set-up, and even if you were, you would be unlikely to claim it at this point. Your post saying you didn't even know there was a mafia roleblocker seems sincere to me as well, and helped sway to to believe you are a town roleblocker.
I will see where the town goes at this point, but I do honestly want this day to end soon, so I'm warning now that I will jump on the next decent bandwagon (if I agree with it of course).
There occasionally are non-mafia roleblockers, but it is far more typical for a roleblocker to be mafia. Non-mafia roleblockers are almost as rare in normal mini's as insane (as opposed to paranoid or naive) cops are.
The presence of a mafia roleblocker suggests that we have both a cop and a doc in our town.
I definitely support a lynch of the Mafia Roleblocker over Miztef, who would either be a Godfather or a Goon.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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and then the next post from jerubbaal says:jerubbaal wrote:I've been very suspicious of Miztef already, and Korlash's panicky reaction here would seem to indicate he's scummy, so I would agree with two of his three proposals. If it turns out you're only wrong about one out of the three, I will be really impressed.
jerubbaal caught on that there may be some real muscle behind my system, and is now distancing from both the Miztef and the Korlash wagons.jerubbaal wrote:I'm not really willing to take a leap of faith for you, especially as I know at least one of those conclusions is off.
I still think I got all three.
Yes, the meta does shift that quickly, as soon as a scumtell becomes common knowledge they become useless except against "newb scum". The most famous example is the fall out from when Jeep posts his personal list of scumtells. They were rendered useless within days.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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I thought that way as well, until Mastermind of Sin nailed all three people in our scum group day 1 in Mini 458. He identified Num7 and I as being scumbuddies based upon "analysis of voting patterns" that he wouldn't go into to detail upon, other than we had a conspicuous lack of interaction.Miztef wrote:Almost always the first day ends up with a townie dieing, I have learned not to put too much hope in correctly finding scum day 1. The best you can reasonably hope for is gaining information from the lynch.
I encourage to look at two easily found stats.
On my wiki page, and on Miztef's wiki page are listed games we've participated in.
On our respective profile page it show the total number of gameposts we've made to date on mafiascum.net.
The combination of the two stats (number of games played, and number of posts made) is a good indicator for relative experience with forum mafia. The number of posts made is used as a rough proxy for "number of games read" since both numbers have a direct correlation with a player's interest in mafia.
Miztef cited one game where he was a town aligned roleblocker. That is a perfect example of anecdotal evidence.
As the Wikipedia says,necdotal evidence is an informal account of evidence in the form of an anecdote or hearsay. The term is often used in contrast to scientific evidence, such as evidence-based medicine, which are types of formal accounts. Some anecdotal evidence does not qualify as scientific evidence because its nature prevents it from being investigated using the scientific method. Misuse of anecdotal evidence is a logical fallacy and is sometimes informally referred to as the "person who" fallacy ("I know a person who..."; "I know of a case where..." etc. Compare with hasty generalization). Anecdotal evidence is not necessarily typical; statistical evidence can more accurately determine how typical something is.
When used in advertising or promotion of a product, service, or idea, anecdotal evidence is often called a testimonial and is banned in some jurisdictions. The term is also sometimes used in a legal context to describe certain kinds of testimony. Psychologists have found that people are more likely to remember notable examples than typical examples[1].-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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I thought that way as well, until Mastermind of Sin nailed all three people in our scum group day 1 in Mini 458. He identified Num7 and I as being scumbuddies based upon "analysis of voting patterns" that he wouldn't go into to detail upon, other than we had a conspicuous lack of interaction. Looking at MoS's win percentage as town gave me renewed hope in developing models that would accurately identify scum.Miztef wrote:Almost always the first day ends up with a townie dieing, I have learned not to put too much hope in correctly finding scum day 1. The best you can reasonably hope for is gaining information from the lynch.
~~~
I encourage other townies to look at two easily found stats.
On my wiki page, and on Miztef's wiki page are lists games we've participated in.
On our respective profile page it show the total number of gameposts we've made to date on mafiascum.net.
The combination of the two stats (number of games played, and number of posts made) is a good indicator for relative experience with forum mafia. The number of posts made is used as a rough proxy for "number of games read" since both numbers have a direct correlation with a player's interest in mafia.
~~~
Miztef cited one game where he was a town aligned roleblocker. That is a perfect example of anecdotal evidence.
As the Wikipedia says,
Based upon the number of mini normals I've participated in, and gathered information from for use in my models, mafia-aligned roleblockers areAnecdotal evidence is an informal account of evidence in the form of an anecdote or hearsay. The term is often used in contrast to scientific evidence, such as evidence-based medicine, which are types of formal accounts. Some anecdotal evidence does not qualify as scientific evidence because its nature prevents it from being investigated using the scientific method. Misuse of anecdotal evidence is a logical fallacy and is sometimes informally referred to as the "person who" fallacy ("I know a person who..."; "I know of a case where..." etc. Compare with hasty generalization). Anecdotal evidence is not necessarily typical; statistical evidence can more accurately determine how typical something is.
When used in advertising or promotion of a product, service, or idea, anecdotal evidence is often called a testimonial and is banned in some jurisdictions. The term is also sometimes used in a legal context to describe certain kinds of testimony. Psychologists have found that people are more likely to remember notable examples than typical examples[1].farmore common than town-aligned roleblockers.
~~~
Why would a powerrole claim with only four votes? Lynch -3 is not the danger zone, there is no reason to claim at that point.
My theory is that Korlash panicked, just like his scumbuddy Miztef did, and claimed far too early.
A townie powerrole would wait far longer to claim. Being outed, along with drawing the NK, are the two biggest worries for a powerrole. Townie powerroles almost never claim until -1 to lynch, and I can't remember a case where a townie powerrole claimed at -3 to lynch I should've collected that stat, but I think I would've remembered any exceptional cases.
Scum planning a fakeclaim, on the other hand, are always tempted to claim earlier rather than later, because the pressure of a strong wagon can force information out of the targeted scum as well as his buddies. That is what I think we;ve just seen from jeb and Miztef.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Jitsu wrote:@Adel: How many games have you collected data on?
more than one hundred; less than one thousand
Also, why did you not just do your analysis secretly and not even tell anyone here about your numerical models? You could have gotten your result, untainted, when Korlash's role was finally known, without any risk of shifting the meta.
I would like to encourage other people to build similarly systematic methods of hunting scum. It would shift the meta in a pro-town direction, yielding more won games for all.
You have given some reasons for your suspicion of Korlash and Sudo, and now recently some on Jerub and Miztef. I will likely have more to say on that later, but for now, what are the reasons behind your suspicion of Abstract?
no comment
Also, what is your opinion on Gunslinger?
no comment-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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and I'll takeKorlash wrote:
*Sigh* I kinda figured that was coming... And while I get your whole "meta" thing as to why you are doing this, the way you are playing is just kinda... taking the fun out of the game...Jitsu wrote:no commentthatas an admission of guilt.
I told you a couple of times you shouldn't type so much.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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This is what I call aKorlash wrote:If it were anyone else I would argue she was "bussing" but I know that is not the case.. weird...WIFOM trap. Scum, expecting to die by lynch, attempts to connect himself to a towie, to cast some amount of later suspicion on that townie.
He wants to plant the seed of the idea that I am a scumbuddy of his that is in the process of throwing him under the bus.-
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I could choose to ignore a question, evade it, or answer it in bad faith- instead I reply with "no comment". I admot it isn't the perfect solution, but I consider it superior to the alternatives.Abstract Actuary wrote:Most importantly, I know you don't want to reveal the secrets to your methods, but "no comment" is not an acceptable answer to people's questions. If someone asked me a question (or Korlash or a number of other players) and they responded "no comment" the rest of the town would jump all over them.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Point taken, however, if that was only scummy thing Korlash did, my vote would not be on him.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Welcome Mr Flay! I haven't seen you in a mini before.
I know you were a moderator for mini 166, but I don't have you in my mini database as a player. When is the last time you played in a mini? Why did you choose to replace intothismini?
Just curious...-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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And it looks like Dodecamafia, while appealing to me as a former over-the-table gamer, shouldn't be in my mini normal database either.
Mr. Flay appearing in a mini-normal is an oddity.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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What about this game made you join your first normal mini? I'm not sure if the answer to that question will effect this game in any way, but you've made over 3k gameposts on this site, and you've never played in a normal mini before. That made me curious, so I asked a question. I think the question is significantlyMr. Flay wrote:More importantly, why do youcare, Adel? I haven't started reading the game yet, but the welcome I've gotten so far has been decidedly odd...lessodd than you joining the game in the first place.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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This link will list all posts by Setael, starting with the most recent.
She's made 16 posts in other games since her most recent one in this game, and many many posts in other games since she replaced in.
Mr. Flay says that this is a scumtell, because Anata was under pressure and Setael is currently active in other games while not being active in this game.
I do not consider it a scumtell, and I question whether Setael was really under pressure at all. Probably another of my Crystal Meth theories :)-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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natch- my error. I thought he was referencing Sateal's recent lack of activity in this thread.
I don't know if Anata abandoning the game is a scum tell or a just a newb tell- mafia is far less fun for most people when there is a wagon on you. Role and alignment doesn't change that much.
Mr. Flay: in the newbie games you can recall, and on a percentage basis, who is more likely to drop out of a game on day 1: a town-aligned player with a wagon, or a scum-aligned player with a wagon?-
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I'd like to see some additional analysis from Flay and Satael and Sudo_Nym and curiouskarmadog and Abstract Actuary and jerubbaal. soon.-
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I choose not to reveal my thoughts at this time, but I will encrypt them to reveal later, after Mr. Flay, Satael, Sudo_Nym, curiouskarmadog, Abstract Actuary, jerubbaal chime in.
have fun!Cipher Text wrote:##### Encrypted: decrypt with http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/
ZZZZZ CIJQH KKCUM BXKTT TSETW OVQQA BVEPD TIKIK JFHQB KEMMV BWPAP
XTLJH BLCOB RGUAC LWIGO VBJHG IBLBT QRHQU FSXWK FFEXR PETWL UXDDT
APCGW NVWXQ QRCHE GPDFN FKLIU NQWRI FHDVF LOSFC WCNNL VKJLR ANWEU
HGXJC KLAFN PILNJ HEBCQ EJJSL KBCQQ JJAXT GUCDH AINNQ WGPNR RRUFB
OLCKP CTPBQ EKOJH FDFJU NKPAS MXNLS JPQLU TRBAX DOMBK PQGKO IAAKI
XFOXT WRWOC ETQIX REMUI WAWAR AAMIM OOBVF KAUGE QIIBL MHMOB EBCKL
WVWCO DEQKT GNROM PAQPS EQINP SAHRF EMGUG PGINE COEPL VXIKF EBHWV
BTKLO QCDEW LVVFJ HNPKU GIETR QBIAN XWNNU WMPAJ PVVJR DNJQN IXVSK
NBIVA FIGHV IGRBP ARGSW PGISE VJPGH LKVTU TMACU JWSXF OBNWC NVKVO
GATTR SGNLV MWFBA XWSXW PARFN SCQDW PWCEX NQLRT HSDWX DKHEU DNQPV
DTIJP TDDHJ VFABH SBPGM PGAIG UMHJF WTGAJ FXJDO RSMUX TARBE LFDST
RROSD UAEHI RIQLF MXIQL KPSAC TFTHN JQLXL EFJWF SRWAT VHCHJ TXXOS
LXFHK VCDPS FTCCD TCBIG EQECN QAEAP KPBFA ULKGE OCNRD IIFGS NCUXX
NHFPC EJTLF KAMHW UAWGD VDFKA CGALC VMLMQ BTMFJ BVWXI NIVDI JGCBH
JJNAD VOVNA REUNT DGMBE INUCX KREAX CIBVQ VODXB NQOQW RMPGE XMIMV
AJCFN EXION OTSXA PHUPV KJEMG XEQTK POAEF QBEPI FHOLC XVMJI JGULD
UBAIX XPCHT XUACT JRAME XMOFC IURNM ISTGQ BRRJW UCSWC JNFVV JSPKU
CIRPJ VQSDB ESULI DGUDH PAPGI IUEFE VOUPC RCHJM RMVKU RRQBM FABGL
IHFUV WIIUQ SNFEH HVHBG IXMEL MHISK IUDTO IVCQU QNWSO JNANL BOQUT
AWFXX HMNGX VKDWH DGLIT XWUVE VTFTB CKATE ESREA PVUTF FSLTS AESLF
UVHRF UOXQH NHOJD TMSPB HXBAW QHWKJ NDCVF STOBJ WKOCW QRWPM WPFJB
VMFLN PLRWC UIEBR WGKRK HQOIE QSTMF LWOJL ALFBI IDLRL RVIMH LAHLP
PTIOT KXAQK KPHVS JWXXD IUCVC WGBSK GCJWQ SNBLU NQLNW HWJTL ADCKK
WGNIB KSAHM KPIMS TDAGH CPFKM JSVKJ ATPQQ EANLF QVQHF GGVWS UXQMU
GAFBK ETGOM ABFNU KUASP WJIXN QPSAU LGWQJ WUIIK TPLAN PTSMT JTWWP
JDKCR PEAJO BDKCH MGXSA BVDEP GUXXI FSHND FMMWE SLRXI JVBDO FGQQP
AWEXP VPLTV TWEAA MWJWF VERIA IFXRP BHNTS SAQTD WMEFM PSPCM OWVKN
GNNBA OSTTN LTGQG FKJKL CENML SGLBS KIUTT JAAXD CPJVC PXDQA PXLNV
HPJRV WKEHW SOFJM FJRUS LWVCT LULLQ EPTUV KQPTS EPDIX WNTCR EIUTS
RURQW LDLXP QCKHM DRFVG RCABQ IFFRW KJEFK MLPXN BEQQF WFRPN AEXDP
FCHRS FXAMC IQCFP IVFJU UXEQR MULFW RRARU LLSSN EINFT BWUAP GBBFV
SQDKQ SLRIN MONIF IMGPQ CTRRR ODOOS AJTES BNJIC RFCMW QOVTM GTVKA
KBKPW JVLCI UAQMK NECED QLDCR FXJBX BJQCX AVIKL BVJGS NCXIQ NLRAH
HRCNP GUPWI EJISG EQSJL LGBRV NQGDI LHKUR TVODH AWBWE FLKLJ IOLHJ
NCKFL CHQGS JMXRO QGCGD LPMSS DKBKU ATOMA LPBCI KNMFT TOADS NHCRO
TGMVX JKOTG NPSWE IIKMH MDUUX QABWU XKGWS RJDOP PVRCO LKRCQ BHPIW
MSVSC LDUOT RBJLX HCTFB CFIUE SCNNS FOQHP IUDBL IEROO CRRDR CVDIQ
SGILO GAUPX QEIGU BHDUB XEGMX BWEUW ASJTP UAMST IJSBP KQHDL WJNQW
NKKMM OHBTA SLFKL LLEAU KJRFF GMIWA AHSEH JDFAI RKGSX LOBLK UDJEG
CKPWC JXOUR SEMCH GVPCA AIKMO PPSAO DVMTF RPFUN JDBLT LAUPV GQHVL
LLFLW JDDMM TPASS DRVUT WEUMD AJREG KGEWN KXBFV XDOTR GQXHP RGPNT
VDEVX ASGGH MIDCE DBVCV HPJTL AXVLA QRQNE HHDGJ TKBEL XNMIV XAHAX
ENGVP AFIUT FEOHX OQJGU INMCA CBSNL GULBC OPGPL GOTMM UHQMA WAKHV
XHFJT UNOCN LJHAC LBXBA XDOXB SMPES VLRWC IICSF XPEEV IPFOC BGRTF
EOEJI EQJGH AALUN JIUVT LLOIO UWMSO LVIEH CURJI XJBBA BOFTC BQFCC
KTDWT LOMVA HAQAV MAWRI XIISJ XCGDB OXAUJ DTKEC QEFOF UBVND BDMGX
RLQBD UKOJH WCFNW BHVRI BASIS LIROD RTDRF OEJMN QCWQR OTNXX XNESV
GKGSJ NJMBG DMXTH MLCVJ MFGSR GVSEJ TCRRD FSHKS VRNUX HLMNK PXMVU
DKDSW CDPPC LVSMF TVFAW IADNH UUHTR OEGDA RVXKW VKABB OKVVI BFEHF
IIABC JCLCL BBCWA FKFGE NMWHG PVWIM UESCA MJVXU GGKSL CJSRO MSQKK
CMFNM JONAA DLMXH CPGBF TNVFC VQMPL CUKEH GHDLW OBEQP WRXWH FSCTH
QDFXK CKRKB PBEIU QUNWU MFQGM PFQBA SRXHT UCHGT LXFPM AJRGD LQSRL
ARHTV EVNUE BAXOI RKMMO NLCKS KCIOW HWSIW JQRXR XHLLS FTGFG RJPEH
CLQVU PVTWO NEVQE QVUPH GVLKN SPNLD ACBUE GQBER AAVTJ PNQVH MLBMO
SGQCT UJGRU WEQVN SDIIH BPSCH QMUGB HMTQB GPKFN UCRPQ XXUVO BTADV
GCMKF GKOSV BVJQU TWUSM KDIGT SWSNI RJIMC RSOEH SJDXO NLTBW WSFAS
UBRDP AGDIG FEBXC HDQPU NHODV DMWAB SBNNG FVCFX JUNKT EQVAQ KGQGD
LSOST TANPD GBBLH INXAL VWNXE FURED UAAWX EHKNA JUTVB EKJDC AERXW
GEKFJ RVJIO RVNPR VXUVH AUUEU IVEGG DCDSS BXBFU NUPVS MJQMT XHDDS
BBQNF NUIUQ OBCHX USUAV HGETR HBLDF KAPQV EWWGF WTESH APIOO NCMTI
NQFQO WQBJW SVUUJ HFXAQ PRNIR OKFDN AQBCX TGFUP XRHKR GIEPW DMFSR
VDILT WFKUG HUXIJ ODJOA USGTI JLAAB SVOAP AMOGB MLZZZ YYYYY
##### End encrypted message-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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how about I pm the passcode to our moderator?
I'm just using the cipher to "hold my cards close to my chest", like you want to, the difference being that I won't be able to change my argument to suit my possibly scummy needs like you will be able to.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Since August 2006, Mafia roleblocker has appeared as a role 6 times in a mini-normal, while a protown roleblocker has only been used three times.Mr. Flay wrote:"Mafia Roleblocker" is a newer type of role, and not as common as some players here would like you to believe.
NabakovNabakov has been registered with mafiascum.net for less than a year, and has not played in any game with either type of roleblocker.
Korlash is currently a player in an ongoing game where a mafia roleblocker was lynched D2. (note: this line is very close to the boundary of talking about an ongoing game. I believe it to be a legal sentence because it is publically available information from a deathscene written by that game's moderator.
My conclusion is that NabakovNabakov is more likely to include a Mafia roleblocker than a normal roleblocker.... oh, wait. I take that back.unvote
I'm not nearly as confident as I was before. I think I just talked myself into giving Korlash the benefit of the doubt.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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I stated that I would post the passcode after other named players posted some analysis. That means any of you will be able to go to the site and decode it to see what I encrypted.Korlash wrote:um... unless one of us (i.e. other players) decodes it.. your pretty much just setting yourself up to say whatever you want later and claim you "said" it before...
or that is my opinion of it...-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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It bothers me that your post is implying that I am somehow doing something wrong. I have a 1500 gamepost record of being a highly ethical player. I turned in a scumbuddy who was attempting to cheat with me by PM in Friends and Enemies, I've used encryption twice in previous games without cheating, or being accused of cheating. Frankly, I don't care if you can't be certain that I are not communicating in a forbidden manner.Mr. Flay wrote:If I had known you were going to do that again, I wouldn't have replaced into this game. In fact, based on your behavior in Communiqué, I can't be certain that you are not communicating in a manner forbidden by your role (i.e. day-talking). Therefore I request that you decode that message immediately or ask for replacement so that the encrypted block becomes irrelevant to the game.
I really don't like your request that I immediately decode itorbe replaced. There are several other possible solutions than the ones you named. The two you listed are the two most anti-town possibilities.
I'm starting to think you are scum attempting to eliminate me from the game, or at least seriously undermine my influence on other players.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Also, my sig line is a MeMe quote, from Communique Mafia, the game she moderated and I presented my highly complicated but very pro-town mass encryption scheme. Mr. Flay writes, "If I had known you were going to do that again" could also be read as "if I knew that I ws going to be scum against you where you pulled out more of your townie tricks"...-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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I just came across this post by Mr. Flay.
So is Mr. Flay's objection to my use of crypto because it "goes against the spirit of mafia" or because it "has all advantage to the town"? Neither, so far in this game. His objection was:Mr. Flay wrote:But you can breadcrumb several things. You can hand-code several claims, and only ever use one of them.But true crypto has all-advantage to the town, all-disadvantage to the scum, and thus goes against the spirit of the game.
There is a significant contradiction there I would like an explanation for.I can't be certain that you are not communicating in a manner forbidden by your role (i.e. day-talking). Therefore I request that you decode that message immediately or ask for replacement so that the encrypted block becomes irrelevant to the game.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Korlash: I think you should wait to hear Mr. Flay's advice as to whether or not you should reveal who you choose to block.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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i would like for korlash to encrypt who he roleblocked for a later reveal.-
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