Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!

[Adel]

hey kids. kindly allow me 96 hours to read the thread and germinate some insight...

[Adel]

I remember once when I replaced into a 43 page long game...

like killing someone with your bare hands, it gets easier the more times you do it ;)

[Adel]

logic

k

magic

is to

magick

as

logic

is to

logick

is is a common mistake though. :)

[Adel]

skimmed the thread.

vote: Korlash

I'm going with my first impression this time.

[Adel]

could the other townies please vet this mist for mistakes? I tried to list every

action

¹ posted after post 57.

58: miztef: unvote vote: korlash
67: mexal: unvote, vote: sudo_nym
68: korlash: FoS mexal
69: sudo: unvote, vote: mexal
81: ckd: Vote miztef
92: jitsu: FoS:miztef, mexal
106: votecount:
curiouskarmadog (1): jerubbaal
Korlash (2): Abstract Actuary, Miztef
Miztef (1): curiouskarmadog
Mexal (1): Sudo_Nym
Not Voting (6): Jayalay, Anata112, GunslingerKB, Korlash, oEJo, Jitsu
121: oEJo: vote mexal
129: miztef: unvote
137: jerubbaal: unvote, vote sudo
145: sudo: unvote
160: Jitsu: FoS:anata
177: Mexal: unvote
181: GunslingerKB: Vote: Jitsu
182: oEJo: Unvote
192: GunslingerKB: Unvote: Jitsu vote Sudo
222: miztef: unvote (redundant)
238: mexal: vote: jayalay
239: Abstract Actuary: Unvote: Korlash Vote: Miztef
242: Jitsu: vote: anata112
244: mexal: unvote, vote: anata112
245: jerubbaal: unvote, vote anata112
316: miztef: vote: curiouskarmadog
321: jerubbaal: unvote, vote: miztef
344: miztef: unvote vote: anata
373: mexal: unvote, vote: miztef
374 jitsu: unvote, vote: miztef
393: Jitsu: unvote
423: jitsu: vote anata
449: gunslinger: unvote
470: gunslinger: vote anata
472: korlash: unvote: vote: gunslinger
473 gunslinger: unvote: anata Vote:korlash
477: ckd: fos gunslinger
482: korlash: unvote
513: adel: vote korlash

1

an

action

I define as any verb posted in bolded letters along with a player's name.

Vote. FoS, HoS,

and

unvote

are all

actions

by my definition,

if

they are posted in bold letters along with a player's name

[Adel]

vibes. activity level. noise:signal ratio. you fit my profile of the helpful mafia goon.

[Adel]

WRONG! When I am mafia I find that I am actually a very unhelpful goon, but tend to be very good when I am say the mafia RB or the Don... saying I am a helpful goon obviously means you missed something!

you sound like scum typing for your own amusment

[Adel]

Now how about a couple comments on the game so far, feelings on every player, main points against me, The usual replacement stuff ;P

nah, I think I'll lurk for the rest of the day, leaving my vote on you because you are the person I think is scum. I don't feel like explaining why the sky often appears blue today, and I don't feel like laying out my case against you.

[Adel]

Ok... Now that I have a reason other then OMGUS

So the only reason keeping you from voting for me before was your fear of casting a OMGUS vote? So you waited until I gave you an excuse to vote for me, and you are even admitting it?

Some friendly advice: if you are going to participate in a game that allegedly relies upon logic, you may want to familiarize yourself with "confirmation bias" so you will be able to self-correct, and think more clearly.

The Wikipedia does a decent job of defining it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

You can go ahead and unvote me now. I don't think anyone will really mind.

:)

[Adel]

Man voting me just because I got you killed in another game... Who's really biased here... ><

You are citing a game that is still in progress. Do you want to get modkilled?

You really shouldn't type so much.

[Adel]

@Adel: You mentioned you skimmed the thread and voted him on first impression, along with some other general reasons. Are you up to date on the game yet?

nope, I

did

ask for 96 hours...

In #536, You say about Korlash "you are the person I think is scum". Is he the only one you find scummy right now, or is he just your number one suspect at the moment?

aren't his reaction informative? I think so

I have other questions, but I want to wait until you are fully caught up.

thanks!

[Adel]

Citing what game? Where? When?

Is this the game where we had that long long discussion about this? I keep forgetting...

As for your question, No i do not want to get modkilled.. I want to know any reason why you are voting me other then "You feel like it"

And you should type more...

please note this is his "sincere" reaction when caught doing something wrong. notice how well the syntax, tone, and structure fits in with the rest of his posts. It is obvious to me that he is trying to get away with something.

[Adel]

Um... I honestly laughed at that... Sorry... I need to sit down for a second... Ouch my spaghetti...

Ok... Is it just me or is the quote:

Why else would you be jumping on the weaker player that has made some dumb posts? (Ie: Me)

Not the funniest damn thing you have ever heard...

Ahh man... My head hurts... Ohhh that was great...

Listen man... No matter how newb you are if you make a dumb post expect to get hounded on it.

Ok... where was I...

Slightly OMGUSish... But reasonable... I appreciate you focusing on a more active player... Props for that...

Now how to completely turn the tables on you... decisions... decisions... Oh I haven't had such a hard time choosing something since the Mace was invented.. How I loved the Flail... anyways...

Um... I pointed out where you agreed we should let the replacements come in and then you more or less go back on that as your reasons to vote. So either you have no reasons or you have contradicted yourself...

I jumped on Jitsu kinda... Not a full on vote but his vote more or less started my earlier rants against the Anata Bandwagon... As for Mexal.. I more or less ignore him... =D

You seem dire to make me look like scum, even though half the people in this game have realized im pretty much ust a newb. It seems as though you know Anata is scum, and that your trying to protect a teamate.

Newb =/= automatically towny or a free pass in this game. I could care less if this is your first game, you did something I felt was scummy and I called you on it. If you think being new is a good excuse then boy do you have the wrong game...

As for the teammate thing, not to get to WIFOM, but if I were Anata's partner I would use this as a perfect time to bus... I mean Replacement... Day 1... I am not exactly the most pro-town looking player so far... All in all it would make more sense that her partners would be pushing for her lynch... But as I said it becomes way too much WIFOM and I don't like to get too far into that.

Many people made clear posts about why Anata would be scum, and you just seemed to "fail to understand why she could be" Now it seems like your trying to tturn the attention from Anata onto me. Just because of some weak post i made.

Again... Stop falling back on your newbiness.. Feel confident.. that is key to a mafia game... No matter how dumb you may think you sound, be as confident as you can and you are more likely to win over the other players. That being said... Let me show you how it's done...
*Clear throat*

I have clearly mentioned how I want the town to focus on active players. Attacking and voting replacements will get us no where.. there is no chance in hell we will lynch someone right now.. we have 3-4 people being replaced plus me, thats 5 townies (Potentially) not going to vote in a lynch. So... Not nearly enough people to lynch. So I feel we need to press the actives to squeeze as much info as we can right now or else risk a complete standstill. So yes, I would rather get the attention off her and onto you. I also would like to get it onto me (Quite frankly I feel I can totally dominate you in any back and forth attacks so I have no fear putting myself in the spotlight. No offense...)

So more or less thats my stand... As for the "Clear posts about why she is scum" thing... Those were 7 pages ago... Restate them now or wait for her replacement... Whether or not you feel the case has been stated, she has been inactive for half this dang game... half of your "case" is worthless because it more or less hangs on the fact "She gave no pro-town excuses for things she did" when in reality.. She barely gave any excuses at all because she has not been here...

Any case brought around after she asked for a replacement should not be used as a basis for a lynch. If you cannot understand where I am coming from by all means continue on with this. You guys could be the most lucky town in the world and have magically found a mafia member... But I feel the chances are more likely your all blowing it out of proportion or blindly following the scum on their anti-town crusade.

So... Let me throw up my case... and see what you guys think about it...

When you attack someone, you base a lot of your stuff on how that player reacts to it yes? So their reaction be it scummy or towny looking will direct how you think of them. at the same time, in most cases, if a player deliberately does not answer questions/attacks thrown at them then they seem scummy for not answering. BUT, when a player is

UNABLE

, I repeat

UNABLE

To respond to those attacks you more or less lose everything you were trying to get from attacking them in the first place.

See half of what you guys are calling a "Clear case" on Anata is speculation about what she "MIGHT" have meant... Because we do not have her explanations on things, we do not get to see what her excuses/reasons are for what she did and so we are all rolling with what WE THINK happened. This is very dangerous people... You are all pushing for a lynch of a defenseless towny(Not saying she is town, just a term I use to describe anyone I am unsure about... better safe then sorry)

And yes I know if Anata comes up scum I look bad, but I don't care about myself. I care about this town and this town winning! And so I do not want us to end day 1 by taking a huge gamble and missing out on info from the people being replaced...

While I will say Anata is probably the "MOST SUSPICIOUS" person, I do not see enough for a lynch... Not in a long shot... You guys had a case against her 8 pages ago, but it wasn't enough to lynch then.. so it damn sure isn't enough to lynch now... So if you guys want to take a gamble go ahead. I only hope you wise up come tomorrow... And I really hope you do not make a huge mistake we regret for the rest of the game...

My vote sticks on you Gunslinger.. You rely too much on the fact you are "New" and have even admitted your posts are "weak and dumb."

this is the scummiest post I've read so far, by any player. I'm caught up through #449. Korlash is scum, and knows who isn't scum. He didn't want to push the wagon on Anata- he wanted to be on the record warning against it.

Anata

Setael is therefor is an innocent.

[Adel]

Most likely... Probably just waiting on a third person to replace... I would be happy to replace him

Wouldn't it be funny if he were mafia? Then I would have to play both sides... Like play pro-town for me and play pro-mafia for him... Kinda complicated but I would win no matter what! =D

wouldn't that mean I lose no matter what also D=

the vast, vast majority of Korlash's posts are nonsense spam posts like this one. Their major function is to clutter the thread and make it harder for townies to extract useful information.

He has a very high post count in this thread, but his signal:noise ratio is about the lowest.

[Adel]

only a fool will tempt the God

See unless you can specifically prove the game I "mentioned" is still active, which you cannot without citing it, You cannot prove I have done anything wrong. And even if it is still active, I did not link it, quote it, or even mention anything big other then the fact I helped to kill someone.

*waits for

lightning strike

deadly cave-in*

[Adel]

[Adel]

hmmm... takes more than four minutes analyze one. As a diagram, it visually represents information. This diagram documents the votes so far in this game, after the random voting phase.
It show who voted for whom, at what vote count. I find it to be a very useful reference for identifying patterns in voting including: conspicuous amounts of interaction, lack of interaction, vote following, vote hopping, lurking, and others. It also lets me see if a specific player likes to hop on a wagon early.

It contains far more information than literally dozens of your posts do.

[Adel]

oh, and to me it show that despite your activity level, and the stupidity of your posts, and the 20 page length of this game, you have not had a scum-powered wagon on you today. If you were a townie, a sharp-minded scumbag would've ran at least a decent wagon on you by now.

If you were a power role you would've kept a lower profile - unless you are a far greater idiot than what I take you for.

So I conclude that scum haven't tried to get you lynched in 20+ pages of posts, despite having the chance to.

Note that Sudo-nym's post containing the reasons why he is voting for Korlash seems scummy as hell to me. He may be a scum buddy irritated at Korlash for trying to engage me in debate like Korlash did. It will be interesting to see when or if he jumps of my shiny new Korlash wagon. I suspect that Sudo-nym is scum that was hoping to lurk through to most of the day and hop on a townie wagon with the last vote before the hammer.

I also conclude that you are not a power role.

I calculated the following odds based upon past games I've played in or read:

Korlash's chance of being Town-Aligned: ~28%

If

Korlash is Town-Aligned, the chance of him being a powerrole: ~15%

These are great numbers for a Day 1 lynch candidate! About the lowest I've ever seen.
I am all about lynching Korlash at this point. Partially, this is because my models for scum behavior become much weaker for day 1 that last much more than 25 pages. The sample size for 25+ page day 1 normal mini's is smaller than many recent games would seem to indicate.

[Adel]

You asked me to lay out my case against you. You asked me to explain why I was voting for you- so I did - and

that

is your response?
˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚
˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛

ˇˇˇˇˇ^hush....ˇˇˇˇˇ_{child, it is time for you to sleep the long sleep...}ˇˇˇˇˇ^{go to sleep now Korlash}ˇˇˇˇˇ

˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚

[Adel]

And what the heck... I refused to vote for you and insted asked for a reason why you voted me. If I had voted there it would have been purely OMGUS... But instead of giving a reason you more or less admitted you had none... OR that you were refusing to give them... and so I now had a logical reason to vote you.

As for "Confirmation bias" you are way off. I had no intention of voting you before, as I said I merely wanted to find out why you voted me. So any vote then would be OMGUS and I find that to be a very bad reason to vote.

And now that I had a reason to vote I saw no reason not to.

And I do not even know why I am arguing this... either give a reason for your vote, and some input on the game so far, or I see no reason to take my vote off of you.

I've explained my case against you. Why are you still voting for me?

[Adel]

Just in case anyone missed it, this is what Korlash said when he voted for me:

nah, I think I'll lurk for the rest of the day, leaving my vote on you because you are the person I think is scum. I don't feel like explaining why the sky often appears blue today, and I don't feel like laying out my case against you.

Ok... Now that I have a reason other then OMGUS,

Unvote:

Vote: Adel

[Adel]

˛ ˛ ˛ ˛ ˛

[Adel]

[Adel]

errata: the above graph is for post 0 through post 563. The label that says "Posts 58-563" is incorrect.

[Adel]

Adobe Fireworks.

[Adel]

[Adel]

[Adel]

FoS: Jerubball

Korlash's most likely scumbuddy

[Adel]

FoS: Miztef

There. I think I got all three.

[Adel]

Abstract Actuary and Sudo_Nym are my two runner ups.

[Adel]

I don't.

[Adel]

instead of sharing my true reasons and cases, I shared my data instead. I've put a stupid amount of work into this system over the last four months, and if I explained how the system works, the meta would shift, and my models would break. I want my system to work for more than just one game.

I figure a lynch of Korlash has almost a 75% chance of being true. I have a lot more trust in my models than I do in my judgment at this point.

Should you trust my models? of course not. That is why I've provided additional, more traditional, cases against him. From either perspective, he looks scummy enough to lynch. Korlash is a simple solution to this Day 1.

[Adel]

did Korlash just claim Mafia Roleblocker? wow.

[Adel]

but using post count / word count????

You've got to be kidding me.

I'll respond to this, because the last three diagrams really aren't that important. I look at them to help me determine who is active and who is passive. The scatter point graph is the best way to show who is an active player and who isn't. The difference between active and passive players makes a huge difference to my models. It is harder to tell the difference between passive and lurking players though.

If you have any insight on who is a lurker, who is just passive, and who forgot about the game, that would be really helpful.

[Adel]

Theres a mafia RB too? o.O Now that role would work... cause then you would at least have some kind of understanding of who could be who... Instead of having to guess...

Unfortunately, seeing as you claimed, which is something I completely did not expect of you (as scum), I will

unvote

. I think it is unlikely you would be so bold as to claim roleblocker at this point if you were indeed scum. I don't believe you are the kind of player that can argue a counterclaim, and therefore would not risk claiming in the first place. It is of course possible you are mafia roleblocker, but I believe that role is unlikely in this set-up, and even if you were, you would be unlikely to claim it at this point. Your post saying you didn't even know there was a mafia roleblocker seems sincere to me as well, and helped sway to to believe you are a town roleblocker.

I will see where the town goes at this point, but I do honestly want this day to end soon, so I'm warning now that I will jump on the next decent bandwagon (if I agree with it of course).

that is a classic example of a scumbuddy abandoning a scumbuddy's wagon. Why did Miztef feel the need to explain his decision with so many words?

There occasionally are non-mafia roleblockers, but it is far more typical for a roleblocker to be mafia. Non-mafia roleblockers are almost as rare in normal mini's as insane (as opposed to paranoid or naive) cops are.

The presence of a mafia roleblocker suggests that we have both a cop and a doc in our town.

I definitely support a lynch of the Mafia Roleblocker over Miztef, who would either be a Godfather or a Goon.

[Adel]

I've been very suspicious of Miztef already, and Korlash's panicky reaction here would seem to indicate he's scummy, so I would agree with two of his three proposals. If it turns out you're only wrong about one out of the three, I will be really impressed.

and then the next post from jerubbaal says:

I'm not really willing to take a leap of faith for you, especially as I know at least one of those conclusions is off.

jerubbaal caught on that there may be some real muscle behind my system, and is now distancing from both the Miztef and the Korlash wagons.

I still think I got all three.

Yes, the meta does shift that quickly, as soon as a scumtell becomes common knowledge they become useless except against "newb scum". The most famous example is the fall out from when Jeep posts his personal list of scumtells. They were rendered useless within days.

[Adel]

Almost always the first day ends up with a townie dieing, I have learned not to put too much hope in correctly finding scum day 1. The best you can reasonably hope for is gaining information from the lynch.

I thought that way as well, until Mastermind of Sin nailed all three people in our scum group day 1 in Mini 458. He identified Num7 and I as being scumbuddies based upon "analysis of voting patterns" that he wouldn't go into to detail upon, other than we had a conspicuous lack of interaction.

I encourage to look at two easily found stats.
On my wiki page, and on Miztef's wiki page are listed games we've participated in.
On our respective profile page it show the total number of gameposts we've made to date on mafiascum.net.

The combination of the two stats (number of games played, and number of posts made) is a good indicator for relative experience with forum mafia. The number of posts made is used as a rough proxy for "number of games read" since both numbers have a direct correlation with a player's interest in mafia.

Miztef cited one game where he was a town aligned roleblocker. That is a perfect example of anecdotal evidence.

As the Wikipedia says,

necdotal evidence is an informal account of evidence in the form of an anecdote or hearsay. The term is often used in contrast to scientific evidence, such as evidence-based medicine, which are types of formal accounts. Some anecdotal evidence does not qualify as scientific evidence because its nature prevents it from being investigated using the scientific method. Misuse of anecdotal evidence is a logical fallacy and is sometimes informally referred to as the "person who" fallacy ("I know a person who..."; "I know of a case where..." etc. Compare with hasty generalization). Anecdotal evidence is not necessarily typical; statistical evidence can more accurately determine how typical something is.

When used in advertising or promotion of a product, service, or idea, anecdotal evidence is often called a testimonial and is banned in some jurisdictions. The term is also sometimes used in a legal context to describe certain kinds of testimony. Psychologists have found that people are more likely to remember notable examples than typical examples[1].

[Adel]

Almost always the first day ends up with a townie dieing, I have learned not to put too much hope in correctly finding scum day 1. The best you can reasonably hope for is gaining information from the lynch.

I thought that way as well, until Mastermind of Sin nailed all three people in our scum group day 1 in Mini 458. He identified Num7 and I as being scumbuddies based upon "analysis of voting patterns" that he wouldn't go into to detail upon, other than we had a conspicuous lack of interaction. Looking at MoS's win percentage as town gave me renewed hope in developing models that would accurately identify scum.

~~~

I encourage other townies to look at two easily found stats.
On my wiki page, and on Miztef's wiki page are lists games we've participated in.
On our respective profile page it show the total number of gameposts we've made to date on mafiascum.net.

The combination of the two stats (number of games played, and number of posts made) is a good indicator for relative experience with forum mafia. The number of posts made is used as a rough proxy for "number of games read" since both numbers have a direct correlation with a player's interest in mafia.

~~~

Miztef cited one game where he was a town aligned roleblocker. That is a perfect example of anecdotal evidence.

As the Wikipedia says,

Anecdotal evidence is an informal account of evidence in the form of an anecdote or hearsay. The term is often used in contrast to scientific evidence, such as evidence-based medicine, which are types of formal accounts. Some anecdotal evidence does not qualify as scientific evidence because its nature prevents it from being investigated using the scientific method. Misuse of anecdotal evidence is a logical fallacy and is sometimes informally referred to as the "person who" fallacy ("I know a person who..."; "I know of a case where..." etc. Compare with hasty generalization). Anecdotal evidence is not necessarily typical; statistical evidence can more accurately determine how typical something is.

When used in advertising or promotion of a product, service, or idea, anecdotal evidence is often called a testimonial and is banned in some jurisdictions. The term is also sometimes used in a legal context to describe certain kinds of testimony. Psychologists have found that people are more likely to remember notable examples than typical examples[1].

Based upon the number of mini normals I've participated in, and gathered information from for use in my models, mafia-aligned roleblockers are

far

more common than town-aligned roleblockers.

~~~

Why would a powerrole claim with only four votes? Lynch -3 is not the danger zone, there is no reason to claim at that point.

My theory is that Korlash panicked, just like his scumbuddy Miztef did, and claimed far too early.

A townie powerrole would wait far longer to claim. Being outed, along with drawing the NK, are the two biggest worries for a powerrole. Townie powerroles almost never claim until -1 to lynch, and I can't remember a case where a townie powerrole claimed at -3 to lynch I should've collected that stat, but I think I would've remembered any exceptional cases.
Scum planning a fakeclaim, on the other hand, are always tempted to claim earlier rather than later, because the pressure of a strong wagon can force information out of the targeted scum as well as his buddies. That is what I think we;ve just seen from jeb and Miztef.

[Adel]

@Adel: How many games have you collected data on?

more than one hundred; less than one thousand

Also, why did you not just do your analysis secretly and not even tell anyone here about your numerical models? You could have gotten your result, untainted, when Korlash's role was finally known, without any risk of shifting the meta.

I would like to encourage other people to build similarly systematic methods of hunting scum. It would shift the meta in a pro-town direction, yielding more won games for all.

You have given some reasons for your suspicion of Korlash and Sudo, and now recently some on Jerub and Miztef. I will likely have more to say on that later, but for now, what are the reasons behind your suspicion of Abstract?

no comment

Also, what is your opinion on Gunslinger?

no comment

[Adel]

no comment

*Sigh* I kinda figured that was coming... And while I get your whole "meta" thing as to why you are doing this, the way you are playing is just kinda... taking the fun out of the game...

and I'll take

that

as an admission of guilt.

I told you a couple of times you shouldn't type so much.

[Adel]

If it were anyone else I would argue she was "bussing" but I know that is not the case.. weird...

This is what I call a

WIFOM trap

. Scum, expecting to die by lynch, attempts to connect himself to a towie, to cast some amount of later suspicion on that townie.
He wants to plant the seed of the idea that I am a scumbuddy of his that is in the process of throwing him under the bus.

[Adel]

Most importantly, I know you don't want to reveal the secrets to your methods, but "no comment" is not an acceptable answer to people's questions. If someone asked me a question (or Korlash or a number of other players) and they responded "no comment" the rest of the town would jump all over them.

I could choose to ignore a question, evade it, or answer it in bad faith- instead I reply with "no comment". I admot it isn't the perfect solution, but I consider it superior to the alternatives.

[Adel]

Point taken, however, if that was only scummy thing Korlash did, my vote would not be on him.

[Adel]

Welcome Mr Flay! I haven't seen you in a mini before.

I know you were a moderator for mini 166, but I don't have you in my mini database as a player. When is the last time you played in a mini? Why did you choose to replace into

this

mini?

Just curious...

[Adel]

And it looks like Dodecamafia, while appealing to me as a former over-the-table gamer, shouldn't be in my mini normal database either.

Mr. Flay appearing in a mini-normal is an oddity.

[Adel]

learn to research. google "Dodecamafia"

[Adel]

More importantly, why do you

care

, Adel? I haven't started reading the game yet, but the welcome I've gotten so far has been decidedly odd...

What about this game made you join your first normal mini? I'm not sure if the answer to that question will effect this game in any way, but you've made over 3k gameposts on this site, and you've never played in a normal mini before. That made me curious, so I asked a question. I think the question is significantly

less

odd than you joining the game in the first place.

[Adel]

This link will list all posts by Setael, starting with the most recent.

She's made 16 posts in other games since her most recent one in this game, and many many posts in other games since she replaced in.

Mr. Flay says that this is a scumtell, because Anata was under pressure and Setael is currently active in other games while not being active in this game.

I do not consider it a scumtell, and I question whether Setael was really under pressure at all. Probably another of my Crystal Meth theories :)

[Adel]

natch- my error. I thought he was referencing Sateal's recent lack of activity in this thread.

I don't know if Anata abandoning the game is a scum tell or a just a newb tell- mafia is far less fun for most people when there is a wagon on you. Role and alignment doesn't change that much.

Mr. Flay: in the newbie games you can recall, and on a percentage basis, who is more likely to drop out of a game on day 1: a town-aligned player with a wagon, or a scum-aligned player with a wagon?

[Adel]

I'd like to see some additional analysis from Flay and Satael and Sudo_Nym and curiouskarmadog and Abstract Actuary and jerubbaal. soon.

[Adel]

I choose not to reveal my thoughts at this time, but I will encrypt them to reveal later, after Mr. Flay, Satael, Sudo_Nym, curiouskarmadog, Abstract Actuary, jerubbaal chime in.

##### Encrypted: decrypt with http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/
ZZZZZ CIJQH KKCUM BXKTT TSETW OVQQA BVEPD TIKIK JFHQB KEMMV BWPAP
XTLJH BLCOB RGUAC LWIGO VBJHG IBLBT QRHQU FSXWK FFEXR PETWL UXDDT
APCGW NVWXQ QRCHE GPDFN FKLIU NQWRI FHDVF LOSFC WCNNL VKJLR ANWEU
HGXJC KLAFN PILNJ HEBCQ EJJSL KBCQQ JJAXT GUCDH AINNQ WGPNR RRUFB
OLCKP CTPBQ EKOJH FDFJU NKPAS MXNLS JPQLU TRBAX DOMBK PQGKO IAAKI
XFOXT WRWOC ETQIX REMUI WAWAR AAMIM OOBVF KAUGE QIIBL MHMOB EBCKL
WVWCO DEQKT GNROM PAQPS EQINP SAHRF EMGUG PGINE COEPL VXIKF EBHWV
BTKLO QCDEW LVVFJ HNPKU GIETR QBIAN XWNNU WMPAJ PVVJR DNJQN IXVSK
NBIVA FIGHV IGRBP ARGSW PGISE VJPGH LKVTU TMACU JWSXF OBNWC NVKVO
GATTR SGNLV MWFBA XWSXW PARFN SCQDW PWCEX NQLRT HSDWX DKHEU DNQPV
DTIJP TDDHJ VFABH SBPGM PGAIG UMHJF WTGAJ FXJDO RSMUX TARBE LFDST
RROSD UAEHI RIQLF MXIQL KPSAC TFTHN JQLXL EFJWF SRWAT VHCHJ TXXOS
LXFHK VCDPS FTCCD TCBIG EQECN QAEAP KPBFA ULKGE OCNRD IIFGS NCUXX
NHFPC EJTLF KAMHW UAWGD VDFKA CGALC VMLMQ BTMFJ BVWXI NIVDI JGCBH
JJNAD VOVNA REUNT DGMBE INUCX KREAX CIBVQ VODXB NQOQW RMPGE XMIMV
AJCFN EXION OTSXA PHUPV KJEMG XEQTK POAEF QBEPI FHOLC XVMJI JGULD
UBAIX XPCHT XUACT JRAME XMOFC IURNM ISTGQ BRRJW UCSWC JNFVV JSPKU
CIRPJ VQSDB ESULI DGUDH PAPGI IUEFE VOUPC RCHJM RMVKU RRQBM FABGL
IHFUV WIIUQ SNFEH HVHBG IXMEL MHISK IUDTO IVCQU QNWSO JNANL BOQUT
AWFXX HMNGX VKDWH DGLIT XWUVE VTFTB CKATE ESREA PVUTF FSLTS AESLF
UVHRF UOXQH NHOJD TMSPB HXBAW QHWKJ NDCVF STOBJ WKOCW QRWPM WPFJB
VMFLN PLRWC UIEBR WGKRK HQOIE QSTMF LWOJL ALFBI IDLRL RVIMH LAHLP
PTIOT KXAQK KPHVS JWXXD IUCVC WGBSK GCJWQ SNBLU NQLNW HWJTL ADCKK
WGNIB KSAHM KPIMS TDAGH CPFKM JSVKJ ATPQQ EANLF QVQHF GGVWS UXQMU
GAFBK ETGOM ABFNU KUASP WJIXN QPSAU LGWQJ WUIIK TPLAN PTSMT JTWWP
JDKCR PEAJO BDKCH MGXSA BVDEP GUXXI FSHND FMMWE SLRXI JVBDO FGQQP
AWEXP VPLTV TWEAA MWJWF VERIA IFXRP BHNTS SAQTD WMEFM PSPCM OWVKN
GNNBA OSTTN LTGQG FKJKL CENML SGLBS KIUTT JAAXD CPJVC PXDQA PXLNV
HPJRV WKEHW SOFJM FJRUS LWVCT LULLQ EPTUV KQPTS EPDIX WNTCR EIUTS
RURQW LDLXP QCKHM DRFVG RCABQ IFFRW KJEFK MLPXN BEQQF WFRPN AEXDP
FCHRS FXAMC IQCFP IVFJU UXEQR MULFW RRARU LLSSN EINFT BWUAP GBBFV
SQDKQ SLRIN MONIF IMGPQ CTRRR ODOOS AJTES BNJIC RFCMW QOVTM GTVKA
KBKPW JVLCI UAQMK NECED QLDCR FXJBX BJQCX AVIKL BVJGS NCXIQ NLRAH
HRCNP GUPWI EJISG EQSJL LGBRV NQGDI LHKUR TVODH AWBWE FLKLJ IOLHJ
NCKFL CHQGS JMXRO QGCGD LPMSS DKBKU ATOMA LPBCI KNMFT TOADS NHCRO
TGMVX JKOTG NPSWE IIKMH MDUUX QABWU XKGWS RJDOP PVRCO LKRCQ BHPIW
MSVSC LDUOT RBJLX HCTFB CFIUE SCNNS FOQHP IUDBL IEROO CRRDR CVDIQ
SGILO GAUPX QEIGU BHDUB XEGMX BWEUW ASJTP UAMST IJSBP KQHDL WJNQW
NKKMM OHBTA SLFKL LLEAU KJRFF GMIWA AHSEH JDFAI RKGSX LOBLK UDJEG
CKPWC JXOUR SEMCH GVPCA AIKMO PPSAO DVMTF RPFUN JDBLT LAUPV GQHVL
LLFLW JDDMM TPASS DRVUT WEUMD AJREG KGEWN KXBFV XDOTR GQXHP RGPNT
VDEVX ASGGH MIDCE DBVCV HPJTL AXVLA QRQNE HHDGJ TKBEL XNMIV XAHAX
ENGVP AFIUT FEOHX OQJGU INMCA CBSNL GULBC OPGPL GOTMM UHQMA WAKHV
XHFJT UNOCN LJHAC LBXBA XDOXB SMPES VLRWC IICSF XPEEV IPFOC BGRTF
EOEJI EQJGH AALUN JIUVT LLOIO UWMSO LVIEH CURJI XJBBA BOFTC BQFCC
KTDWT LOMVA HAQAV MAWRI XIISJ XCGDB OXAUJ DTKEC QEFOF UBVND BDMGX
RLQBD UKOJH WCFNW BHVRI BASIS LIROD RTDRF OEJMN QCWQR OTNXX XNESV
GKGSJ NJMBG DMXTH MLCVJ MFGSR GVSEJ TCRRD FSHKS VRNUX HLMNK PXMVU
DKDSW CDPPC LVSMF TVFAW IADNH UUHTR OEGDA RVXKW VKABB OKVVI BFEHF
IIABC JCLCL BBCWA FKFGE NMWHG PVWIM UESCA MJVXU GGKSL CJSRO MSQKK
CMFNM JONAA DLMXH CPGBF TNVFC VQMPL CUKEH GHDLW OBEQP WRXWH FSCTH
QDFXK CKRKB PBEIU QUNWU MFQGM PFQBA SRXHT UCHGT LXFPM AJRGD LQSRL
ARHTV EVNUE BAXOI RKMMO NLCKS KCIOW HWSIW JQRXR XHLLS FTGFG RJPEH
CLQVU PVTWO NEVQE QVUPH GVLKN SPNLD ACBUE GQBER AAVTJ PNQVH MLBMO
SGQCT UJGRU WEQVN SDIIH BPSCH QMUGB HMTQB GPKFN UCRPQ XXUVO BTADV
GCMKF GKOSV BVJQU TWUSM KDIGT SWSNI RJIMC RSOEH SJDXO NLTBW WSFAS
UBRDP AGDIG FEBXC HDQPU NHODV DMWAB SBNNG FVCFX JUNKT EQVAQ KGQGD
LSOST TANPD GBBLH INXAL VWNXE FURED UAAWX EHKNA JUTVB EKJDC AERXW
GEKFJ RVJIO RVNPR VXUVH AUUEU IVEGG DCDSS BXBFU NUPVS MJQMT XHDDS
BBQNF NUIUQ OBCHX USUAV HGETR HBLDF KAPQV EWWGF WTESH APIOO NCMTI
NQFQO WQBJW SVUUJ HFXAQ PRNIR OKFDN AQBCX TGFUP XRHKR GIEPW DMFSR
VDILT WFKUG HUXIJ ODJOA USGTI JLAAB SVOAP AMOGB MLZZZ YYYYY
##### End encrypted message

have fun!

[Adel]

how about I pm the passcode to our moderator?

I'm just using the cipher to "hold my cards close to my chest", like you want to, the difference being that I won't be able to change my argument to suit my possibly scummy needs like you will be able to.

[Adel]

"Mafia Roleblocker" is a newer type of role, and not as common as some players here would like you to believe.

Since August 2006, Mafia roleblocker has appeared as a role 6 times in a mini-normal, while a protown roleblocker has only been used three times.

NabakovNabakov has been registered with mafiascum.net for less than a year, and has not played in any game with either type of roleblocker.

Korlash is currently a player in an ongoing game where a mafia roleblocker was lynched D2. (note: this line is very close to the boundary of talking about an ongoing game. I believe it to be a legal sentence because it is publically available information from a deathscene written by that game's moderator.

My conclusion is that NabakovNabakov is more likely to include a Mafia roleblocker than a normal roleblocker.... oh, wait. I take that back.

unvote

I'm not nearly as confident as I was before. I think I just talked myself into giving Korlash the benefit of the doubt.

[Adel]

um... unless one of us (i.e. other players) decodes it.. your pretty much just setting yourself up to say whatever you want later and claim you "said" it before...

or that is my opinion of it...

I stated that I would post the passcode after other named players posted some analysis. That means any of you will be able to go to the site and decode it to see what I encrypted.

[Adel]

If I had known you were going to do that again, I wouldn't have replaced into this game. In fact, based on your behavior in Communiqué, I can't be certain that you are not communicating in a manner forbidden by your role (i.e. day-talking). Therefore I request that you decode that message immediately or ask for replacement so that the encrypted block becomes irrelevant to the game.

It bothers me that your post is implying that I am somehow doing something wrong. I have a 1500 gamepost record of being a highly ethical player. I turned in a scumbuddy who was attempting to cheat with me by PM in Friends and Enemies, I've used encryption twice in previous games without cheating, or being accused of cheating. Frankly, I don't care if you can't be certain that I are not communicating in a forbidden manner.

I really don't like your request that I immediately decode it

or

be replaced. There are several other possible solutions than the ones you named. The two you listed are the two most anti-town possibilities.

I'm starting to think you are scum attempting to eliminate me from the game, or at least seriously undermine my influence on other players.

[Adel]

Also, my sig line is a MeMe quote, from Communique Mafia, the game she moderated and I presented my highly complicated but very pro-town mass encryption scheme. Mr. Flay writes, "If I had known you were going to do that again" could also be read as "if I knew that I ws going to be scum against you where you pulled out more of your townie tricks"...

[Adel]

I just came across this post by Mr. Flay.

But you can breadcrumb several things. You can hand-code several claims, and only ever use one of them.

But true crypto has all-advantage to the town, all-disadvantage to the scum, and thus goes against the spirit of the game.

So is Mr. Flay's objection to my use of crypto because it "goes against the spirit of mafia" or because it "has all advantage to the town"? Neither, so far in this game. His objection was:

I can't be certain that you are not communicating in a manner forbidden by your role (i.e. day-talking). Therefore I request that you decode that message immediately or ask for replacement so that the encrypted block becomes irrelevant to the game.

There is a significant contradiction there I would like an explanation for.

[Adel]

vote:miztef

passcode, as promised, is 510510510

[Adel]

vote:Miztef

[Adel]

Korlash: I think you should wait to hear Mr. Flay's advice as to whether or not you should reveal who you choose to block.

[Adel]

i would like for korlash to encrypt who he roleblocked for a later reveal.

[Adel]

10 of us are alive, and only 5 have posted.

shame, shame.

[Adel]

@flay: 'cause i thought he would listen to you, what is your advice for him?

@jerubb: i wanted someone to accuse me of bussing my scumbuddy.

[Adel]

to me it is pretty simple: had the wagon on korlash been scum powered, it would've had two quantifiable attributes that were missing. unlike the miztef wagon.

vote: Korlash

[Adel]

Adel, what two qualities separate the Miztef wagon from the Korlash wagon in your view?

one is the rate of change. i am a very visual thinker, so i actually picture a wagon moving in my mind's eye.
how fast is it moving? how fast is it accelerating? graphs of wagon strength against post number show that there may be several distinct of shapes a wagon may have. miztef's was begging for a townie hammer, so i offered it, had a townie lurker dropped the hammer vote then that towie would have a strong wagon on him right now. the Korlash wagon should've made it to -1, or at least -2, if he were town. Note how strong the wagon on Korlash remained for a number of posts after he claimed. No one argued in his defense, until Mr. Flay came in.

[Adel]

how many is "several"?

[Adel]

if a mod lists a players role in the first post of the game thread, it can be talked about. you have been in two games where a player's role was revealed to be a townie aligned roleblocker, and neither of those games was a mini-normal

open 36 http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... ht=#839539
mini 524 http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... ht=#839530
mini 503 http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... ht=#839545
lost boys http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... ht=#839548
ca trilogy http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... ht=#838115
open 43 http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0
BM's mystery mafia http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0

town aligned roleblocker killed night 4

mini 494 http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0
egypt mafia http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0
mini 480 http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0

town aligned roleblocker lynched day 2

mafia 70 http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0
mini 486 http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0
open 19 http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0

[Adel]

sometimes i really suck. mini 480 is a mini-normal, did have a townie aligned roleblocker, and i even posted the wrong link for it. here is a correct link:http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5788

i tried to compile an exhaustive list of Setal's games, but I may have missed one or more.


i dare say that she has not been in "several" games with a town-aligned roleblocker, and i find the comment about "not talking about ongoing game" as possibly evasive.

[Adel]

@Setael: so how many is "several", really? I don't think three counts. Why did you exaggerate the number of town-aligned rolebockers you've seen in games?

[Adel]

that some stats can be misleading =! stats can not be informative.

in the case you cite (30%win as town, 50% win as scum) the sample size is the reason the stats are misleading. n=2 for me as scum, n=9 for me as town. for my offered stats earlier in this game i went through great pains to make sure my sample size was as large as possible.

i've survived in two games: once as scum, and once as town. every time i've been a doctor i've been lynched. do you want to lynch me? generally in games where i was an asset to the town, i get nk'd pretty quickly, and when i've been a power role i've gotten lynched in the process of trying to avoid drawing the nk. i'm still learning. are you?

i do not consider your analysis of my posts to be fair, sincere, or earnest. i asked her how many "several" was. "3 or more" or some equivalent would've ended that line of questioning. i take her

evasiveness

to be proof that she was attempting to mislead us: that is my case. it is not a strong one, but i think it is worth noting. it links her to korlash pretty strongly, and that could be vital later in the game.

i am pretty unsettled by how much less fair and balanced you are from what i expected when you replaced in.

[Adel]

Games completed:

1. Lost: Newbie 393. Cop. NK'd N1. I was not an asset. At all.
2. Lost: [http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0] Newbie 347[/url] Cop. Replaced in D1. Nk'd N1. Investigated a scum player, but got nk'd because I was not a lurker, to allow DogMom's scummy B.S. to go through with less of a challenge

3. Lost: [http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 75&start=0] Open 23- Monks and Masons[/url] Townie. Nk'd N1. I was an asset by drawing the nk of

two

scum groups N1. Town still ost, however.

4. Lost: [http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 53&start=0] Mini 455 - Mafia in Theoville/url] Vig. Nk'd N3. I believe I was pretty damn useful, outside of vigging townies each night, and totally falling for a fakeclaim from a player our cop had a guilty on. Ok, maybe I wasn't an asset in this game either.

5. Won: [http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 20&start=0] Open 21 - Friends and Enemies[/url] Goon. Survived. not much of an asset to the town.

6. Lost: [http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5683] Newbie 415 - Super Go-Getter Mafia[/url] Doctor. Lynched D2. The beginnig of ABR's rampage against me for making him look like such a fool in Friends & Enemies. But I wasn't must of an asset anyhow.

7. Won: [http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5647] Assassins in the Palace[/url] Guard (Townie). Lynched D1. ABR got me quicklynched very early day 1, as part of his anti-Adel rampage.

8. Won: [http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 43&start=0] Mini 434: Communiqué Mafia[/url] Townie. Replaced in N3. Lynched D4. I devised a plan that would've broken the game for the town. As it was, I think scum's response to my plan help the surviving townies in the endgame. The quote in my sig line is from this game, from MeMe, the moderator of this game.

9. Lost: [http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 78&start=0] Mini 458[/url] Goon. Lynched D2. An asset to the town? Perhaps.

10. Lost: [http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5668] Mini 471[/url] Doctor. Lynched D1. Once again a victim of a townie-ABR led lynch. I think I would've been able to survive quite a few day had he not continued his revenge against me.

11. Lost: [http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5875] Mini 485: Formula One[/url] Played as discordian algorithm. Townie. Lynched D3. This was a failed playstyle experiment.

12. Abandoned: [http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5905] Newbie 440[/url] Cop. Nk'd N1. Again, I investigated a scum player, but got killed. Shucks.

13. Won: [http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6150] Mini 502 - Basically Communist Mafia[/url] Townie. Replaced in D4. Survived. I led the mass claim that netted the last goon, and I didn't mess up in the endgame where we won against an investigation-immune & nk immune SK played by JDodge. Quite an asset, IMHO

And then there is the fistful of active games. I expect my win % as town to increase pretty dramatically over the next few months since ABR is no longer joining & replacing into games to lynch me, and I'm getting quite a bit better.

[Adel]

he was creating a strawman argument to undermine the use of statistics as evidence. it was not a sincere or earnest case.

[Adel]

i think this would be a good time for me to sit back for a few dozen posts, observe, and reconsider my previous assumptions.

it would probably be the the benefit of the town if someone were to volunteer to direct the pressure against our under-posting peers, in an attempt to obtain a more even amount of content from everyone.

[Adel]

vote Korlash

good job ckd.

[Adel]

vote Korlash

'cause something worth doing once is worth doing thrice

the 9min thing is pretty damning

[Adel]

mod: would you please send out prods at this time?

[Adel]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... or=Korlash

works as well.

there is a link in small blue letters on each player's profile screen.

Joined: 23 Aug 2007
Game posts: 683
[0.08% of total / 7.59 posts per day]
Find all posts by Korlash
Location: Alaska, yeah it is a real place!
Website:
Occupation: I sleep at a register all day... and get paid!
Interests: Things, stuff, and junk

[Adel]

so the question is: who bussed Korlash?

[Adel]

Nominate

: Sudo_Nym to take the point position in asking questions, and lead the town for the next few pages.

I'm willing to apply heavy pressure to any player that evades or ignores his questions.

[Adel]

Why is Sudo cleared for you, Adel? Why are you taking a backseat?

Where did I say that Sudo was cleared? You've made yourself so comfortable in the back seat, I thought I would join you.

Nominate

: Sudo_Nym to take the point position in asking questions, and lead the town for the next few pages.

Is this typical? Why single someone out for this role? If, like Mr. Flay suggests, you feel strongly about their innocence, making that apparent is very bad, isn't it? Also, I'd prefer that everyone actively discusses everything that happened, instead of one person leading the charge.

It isn't typical. When he is a town player, I know he is very astute.

What about the idea that GunslingerKB was mafia, didn't respond "overnight" and that is the reason he is being replaced and also the reason no one was killed overnight? Is this type of speculation typical/allowed?

It is typical, and it is allowed. It is occasionally effective.

If that is the case, I especially suspect Mr. Flay for being the first to point it out.

Please share with us the quote that led you to this conclusion, and expand on why you think it would be a scumtell on Mr. Flay.

[Adel]

vote: Mr. Flay

post or perish.

show us your cards.

[Adel]

that will do

unvote, vote: Satael

[Adel]

that will do

unvote, vote: Satael

"Why are you willing to let Sudo drive, if you are not clearing him?"

Because I think it would be illuminating to have him ask the questions, and force his questions to be answered.

~~~~

I'm loving how a bandwagon that consisted of me alone prompted such a reaction. Loving it.

[Adel]

all I'm saying is that if you're going to throw your buddy under the bus, than you would better off providing a good reason for doing it. Did Korlash react in any kind of particular way to any of the people who voted late on his wagon? Did he

not

react to any of the late votes on his wagon?

[Adel]

I don't like the lack of content from Mr. Flay, Sudo (and I just read 862) and Jerubbaal. I don't like any of them right now.

[Adel]

Happy Birthday Mr. Flay!

[Adel]

isn't that fascinating!

[Adel]

looking forward to your post tomorrow (hopefully).

I'm also looking foward to some decent posts from Mr. Flay and Oman

[Adel]

Mod: could you send another round of prods?

Setael hasn't posted for six days.

[Adel]

I am starting to really like the town's chances of winning this game. Yes, I am keeping quiet at this point, but since I am pretty close to the top of each player's "most townie" list, I don't want to provide cover for scum to hide behind, especially as part of a buss. I think I know who the next scum is, but I'm still having trouble identifying the probable third.

[Adel]

"Why are you just now starting to like our chances? "
because even though the pace of posting has slowed, the signal:noise ratio is as high as I've ever seen in a game. Even if we have a mislynch today and a couple of players get replaced the information necessary to win in endgame is here and easy to find.
"Why are you just now starting to like our chances?
I've liked them since Korlash was revealed as scum. I have an "If, Then" dependency that I have a lot of confidence in.
"Are you going to give us some insight into who you think our scum is?"
Yes. Expect a monster post from me either late on page 38 or early on page 39.
"Also, was this just a post to essentially say 'I am here'?"
More or less. I'm posting about once every 12 hours, and paying very close attention to every post made here. I also wanted to send a message to our scum: be afraid.

[Adel]

I wasn't going to mention the Newbie Game Anata was in being over, but it essentially destroyed the "Anata left because her role there was easier/more appealing" argument, unless she finds Vanilla Townie more appealing than whatever she has/had here. I'm still pissed about the abandonment, but it probably means it was in response to pressure, not role.

Do you think it is possible she abandoned this game because she was scum, and was frustrated because she thought she was going to be lynched? Do you think that is more or less likely than if she was town? I think it either has to point in one direction or the other.

[Adel]

I also expect a single scum group of three players. We didn't have a double NK, and I don't expect Nabakov-Nabakov to be too experimental with his fist mini-normal. I've had quite a bit of interaction with our mod prior to this game, and I feel I have an accurate understanding of his personality and mafia-related beliefs.

Oman's actively level elsewhere on this site and lack of activity in this game is really starting to look scummy to me.

Oman: post or perish: don't wait for others to make a conclusive case for you to agree with.

[Adel]

Seriously, by my count Oman has made 28 posts elsewhere on mafiascum.net since his last post here.

unvote, vote:Oman

post or perish

[Adel]

like

wish I shared your optimism.

?

[Adel]

I'm a little curious about why Adel would single me out to lead the town by the nose; either Adel knew I was innocent (cop/mafia?) or had some other qualification in mind.

it would get you to talk and interact with other players -- a result I still desire.

Ask some questions. I will back you to help get answers.

[Adel]

With the amount of posting Oman does (14.5 posts/day average) why on earth doesn't he contribute more to this game? Seriously.

I want to lynch this lurker now. We have a little bit of a cushion, and there is a better than average chance that he is scum.

[Adel]

actually I do want to lynch him right away. the way I see it we can pretty much hit pause on this day. a little bit mor information should nail it, and there are enough intelligent and usefull players in this town that even another nk isn't going to but us back that far.

oman was not my prime suspect. I'll share that name either right before the hammer of Oman or right after it.

Oman: you can stop this process right now by posting. Otherwise I'm going steamroll this wagon right over you.

[Adel]

I'll make sure to get the information out. How about a vote on Oman to amp up the pressure a little?

[Adel]

fair enough.

[Adel]

actually, that meets my criteria for content pretty well

unvote

Oman: I would love to hear your thoughts on the pother players as well, of course, but would you mind telling us what kept you from posting for so long?

[Adel]

Mod: does this game have a fully open reveal?

If Korlash was a Mafia Roleblocker, would that have been posted?

Additionally, if Mexal or Miztef had a role, would that have been revealed with their death?

[Adel]

vote: Mr.Flay

It is time to end this day. I will not be making a case against him for his partner to hide behind, but I am sincere in this vote, and I

will not move it

for the rest of this day.

[Adel]

Jitsu's last post is interesting.

I will not be making a case against him for his partner to hide behind

That pretty much sums it up. If you want to read someone else's case against Flay, I'd suggest pressuring Jerubbaal for one. I'm going to be pretty damn stubborn about this.

[Adel]

I am almost positive that I have seen people say lines like "I will not remove my vote" before as communication in game to their scum partner.

I've developed much more sophisticated protocols for hidden communication when I am scum. I've read several white papers on steganography and its practical applications, and the existence of the "find" function within every browser means that there is no reason to ever use bold face to draw attention to a specific passage.

[Adel]

ouch, you had to bring up newbie 415. I was the doctor, forced to claim Day 1. After we voted to lynch a different player I announced that I wasn't really the doctor in the hope that I could prevent the NK N1 and give the cop two successful night investigations after NOLYNCH vote day 2. It really didn't work out. That experience sold me on the solidness of the LAL meta.

[Adel]

btw, what is Jerubbaal's case against Flay again?

[Adel]

for the record, I don't have Oman anywhere near the top of my scum list. This is kinda like the inverse of my usual OMGUS vote.

[Adel]

seriously though, what is jerubbaal's case against Mr. Flay?

[Adel]

on or about Friday, November 30th.

[Adel]

So about nine days before you actually voted for me with your "irrevocable" decision? Interesting. I assume then that I'm your "primary suspect" that you were neglecting to name for half a dozen posts before the 9th?

IIRC I was actually pretty wishy-washy during that time. It was around the 30th I decided that there was an outstanding chance that you were scum.. but I decided to take a "wait and see approach". jerubbaal and Setael are the other players I've strongly suspected.

[Adel]

" It does make it look very much like, when the wagon took off quicker than expected, you needed to find a reason to jump off."
full of truthiness

[Adel]

The Setael wagon grew MUCH faster than the Korlash wagon, despite Korlash' broad range of scummy behaviors. It's also unusual for a wagon to develop solely on the basis of lurking on D3, though I admit the players in this game may be unusual in that regard, or I haven't played enough lately to adapt to the new meta regarding lurkers.

What about the Oman wagon?

[Adel]

actually I thought that jerubbaal was flay's partner, until jerubbaal joined me on the flay wagon, now I'm a little mystified.

[Adel]

A scum powered day three speed wagon on a townie would stick longer and probably come closer to lynching. Flay's explanation did nothing to discourage me from thinking he is scum.

How did I become a top suspect in the eyes of a few players? Did anyone pay particular attention to who those players were? I think it is worth noting. I advise making a note of it. Please make a note of it.

Jitsu better turn out to be a townie, he is making far too much sense to me, and his posts seem solid and insightful. The links between Setal and Flay are likely to be significant.

[Adel]

I'm starting to get the impression that you

{referring to Setael}

are much more concerned with how I linked you to Flay than you are with my opinion of you.

Setael's recent posts seem to be a constant attempt to divert attention away from Mr. Flay. Targeting AA must've seemed like a good idea at the time (I though AA was close to getting replaced back then) but when he's made the time to post he has answered Setael's points nicely.

Lynch Mr. Flay today, and when he is revealed as scum expect an early vote by me on Setael tomorrow.

[Adel]

By all means, lynch one of myself, Setael, or Adel today. I don't see any other options will not let this drag out for another day's worth of distraction.

I agree. I think Setael, Flay, and myself should be the only people voted upon for the rest of this day. One of us three should hang, and soon.

[Adel]

heh, that works.

[Adel]

Oman, are you getting your games mixed up?

[Adel]

1025 is a post by our mod stating that you are not currently voting for anyone.

your 939
really does rely upon my 539

People should read the two posts in context. Than they should understand why I think you are not paying attention in this game.

I think Jerrubbal is a little less scummy than Setael right now. You would know that if you were actually reading the thread and paying attention.

[Adel]

I fail to understand why that is a scumtell against me... the implicit logical seems to be if jerrubbal is scum than I must be scum. Why Oman would vote on me rather than him isn't clear to me.

[Adel]

Adel said Jerrubbal was

definatly

scum with Korlash, lynched Korlash, and now leaves Jerrubbal alone.

Adel, please stop strawmanning me.

suck it.

[Adel]

FoS: Jerubball

Korlash's most likely scumbuddy

[Adel]

and why was the term "strawman" so activated in your mind? Is it because you recognized on some level that that was exactly what your post at 1052 consisted of? How is that reread going?

[Adel]

hmmm, why could I have backed off of jerubbaal? Miztef's revealed alignment may have had something to do with it.

~~~

If Flay had been too busy and distracted, that makes it seem even more probable to me that he made mistakes. Who specifically has accused him of making sloppy mistakes? IIRC that was his characterization of the accusations against him. I think both arguments are red herrings, and should be discarded.

~~~

No I don't have anything else to reveal.

~~~

Oman's vote on me still seems a little odd.

~~~

Flay seems more like a tactical lurker who was brought out of the shadows to me than a distracted & overburdened member of the mafiascum community. I also don't buy that he is too careful of a player to be "transparent scum" especially since most of what links Setael to Flay is the posts by Setael and not Flay's. Regardless, it isn't the mistakes that scum make, but how well they talk their way out of them that counts.

~~~

If Flay is revealed to be town, I'll do another careful reread of his posts, paying particular attention to what he says on his way to the noose.

~~~

@Flay: What are the chances that Setael is scum, attacking your attackers as a subtle way of budding up to you? How scummy do you think she is?

[Adel]

This has been a wonderful day. I am eager for it to end.

I little bit of hard reading during the night phase, and we should have an easy win. No lurkers here, anymore. The rest of the days should go pretty quick after this one.

[Adel]

I love how me being right about Korlash is the cornerstone of every case against me.

There is some saying about buildings with weak foundations that applies here.

[Adel]

I'd say Adel is extremely unlikely to be Korlash's partner.

Then I laid a vote on Mr. Flay, and said that I would make a case, and that I would not move my vote.

Adel: Fuck you. Immovable votes are NOT pro-town, and the only thing preventing me from voting you at present is that I feel I have at least two stronger candidates for scum. You're crystallizing again. If you've got a case, state it.

Adel, you're an idiot. This is too patently stupid a ploy for scum, unless you're brass-balling it. (I suppose Adel could be some sort of Mafia Framer, but that seems unlikely given that this is a Normal). Her defense of Jitsu is noted, though I still think Jitsu is town myself.

{snip}

By all means, lynch one of myself, Setael, or Adel today. I don't see any other options will not let this drag out for another day's worth of distraction.

Unvote, Vote: Adel

- let's play. You're being blatantly anti-town.

I do think Adel is ballsy enough to do this as scum (drop Korlash like a bad habit, and peg onto me as "certain scum"), and I cannot continue to excuse her bad play as being purely based in her tendency to crystallize around a specific, misguided theory. Whether or not she's scum (and someone will likely leap on this statement), the unwillingness to ever consider moving her vote for the rest of today is anti-town, and I am willing to punish that. But at this point, I do think she's more than 50% likely to be scum. In that same category presently are jeruubaal and Abstract Actuary (barely). I can give my pro-town list too, but I think I'd rather wait on that until I'm closer to a lynch, to avoid signing anyone's death warrant tonight.

what did I do between posts 1038 and 1077 that made Flay move from voting me because of my anti-town vote on him, to voting me because I am more than 50% likely of being scum?

I see 1038 as him laying the groundwork for a potential hammer of Setael... but it isn't going to come to that. Flay will be lynched and revealed as scum before Setael hangs.

[Adel]

I feel the Flay lynch has two scum on it, I suggest someone gets on Adel to stop this.

If I am the lone non-scum on Flay's wagon, why on earth is your vote on

me

?

[Adel]

EBWOP: Then I laid a vote on Mr. Flay, and said that I would

NOT

make a case, and that I would not move my vote.

[Adel]

uh, ok. and you aren't unvoting because???

[Adel]

I don't like Oman in this game -- but he seems more careless and stupid than scfummy so far. If Flay proves to be scum I'll take a closer look at Oman, but for now I'm not gunning for him.

[Adel]

so Oman thinks that Flay, Jer and I are all scum...

I still think Oman isn't paying attention.

[Adel]

@Adel: At the time of your vote, I can only presume you were really sure that Flay is scum. Then in 1069, you talk about what you will do if Flay comes up innocent, and it makes it seem that you are noticeably less confident. Then in 1102, the confident talk seems to be back. My questions are, how sure are you about Flay's guilt now and why did you seem to hedge a bit in 1069?

I am not 100% confident that he is scum. I expect that his is, but I can't know for sure, obviously. As an extreme example, even if I was a cop with a "guilty" investigation on Mr. Flay I wouldn't be 100% sure that he would be revealed as scum upon lynching- he could be a miller or I could have sanity issues.

[Adel]

My current list, in decending order of scumminess:

Scum

Flay
Setael
{gap}
jerubbaal
Oman

[Adel]

AA are you aware that puts Flay at -1.

[Adel]

AA are you aware that puts Flay at -1.

does that bother you? Your vote is on Flay dont you want him to hang? What was the motivation behind asking AA this? There was a damn vote count above his post, I am pretty sure he knew he was putting Flay at -1.

I've seen enough "accidental" hammers in recent weeks that I thought it was worth bringing attention to the obvious.

[Adel]

And Adel is still a big unknown to me given her lack of explanation for the immovable vote.

At the time I placed my immovable vote I felt that I had some obvious-townie captial I could spend from being so right about Korlash. Part of my playstyle is prompting reactions from players by making ambigious actions. It helps me model the personalities of the other players better.

I don't feel that I am in enough danger to claim. Does Flay?

[Adel]

@Flay: How do you know that Adel is not an insane cop?

I seriously want to hear the answer to this one. Seriously.

[Adel]

So we can hold them accountable. I don't care if the hammer is accurate, the person that hammers could easily be a scum-buddy who is simply late on the wagon. A hammer is a scumtell in my book, with an-inaccurate lynch being far scummier than an accurate one.

As I've said before, I think that Flay is scum, but that doesn't mean that I know that he is. What do you want from me, false confidence?

[Adel]

AA: a fully open reveal would tell us the role (townie, cop, goon, ect..) and alignment (pro-town, town-aligned, scum, mafia, werewolf, ect..) -- a closed reveal would only tell us that the player is dead and not tell us the role or the alignment. I've suspected that thanks to the flavor (underground & darkness) we may have a semi-open reveal where the alignment is revealed, but not the role.

NabNab's response in 951 did little to illuminate or resolve my question.

You're not an insane cop, which is good to know. So what IS the basis for your immovable vote? Posting analysis?

I know she's not a Sane Cop because I'm pro-town.

This could be a slip worth analyzing...

Sold!

[Adel]

So you'd never hammer someone yourself? Or are there situations where a hammer is not a scumtell?

I think I've hammered in about a quarter of the games where I was town-aligned. My definition of a scumtell is any action that increases the percentage chance that the person is scum by my analysis. I suppose it wouldn't be a scumtell if a hammer ended the game with a wion for the town, like the time I hammered in Newbie 520, or if the person laying the hammer gets nk'd during the night and revealed to be town... can you think of less extreme exceptions.

[Adel]

a "wion" is like a "win", but with more celebration...

[Adel]

I'm not going to claim.

[Adel]

Reality check: how in the hell am I at -1? Because of the

remote

chance that I am scum and immediately decided to bus my scumbuddy immediately upon replacing in, even while he made a claim almost everyone else believed?

Seriously, how is Flay getting a pass?

[Adel]

some notes I was in the middle of taking:

Korlash claimed in post 581
588 -- Miztef unvotes saying that Korlash's ingnorance of the existence of a mafia RB role seemed sincere.
589 -- ckd confirms vote on Miztef saying that Miztef is just jumping from wagon to wagon
591-- Adel lists 589 as an example of a scumbuddy jumping of a partner's wagon.

I think the last scum can probably be found by looking at the responses to Korlash's wagon and roleclaim across the two days. Flay immediately replaced in and voted for Setael, and I can't figure if that was just for some immediate distancing or not since there was pressure on Korlash, but he must've know that the wagon on korlash wouldn't last for long.

[Adel]

736 -- hella scummy post by setael now that we know that Korlash was scum.

btw -- ckd and jitsu are totally townie

[Adel]

787 setael gets voted on by korlash under a new & improved wagon
788 could easily be a wagon jump by sudo-nym
ditto for setael's and jerubbaal's subsequent votes.

could both of his scumbuddies have been on his wagon, really? did they decide to bus him hard & fast after the contradiction caught by ckd? I think so.

[Adel]

Wow, Jitsu was a raw newbie in this game? Props to him.

I don't think protecting Korlash was a bad idea all-in-all. If you hadn't protected him and he'd been Nk'd that would've been an even worse mistake.

My apologies to Mr. Flay for being such a pain in his ass.

NabNab got me with this setup. I thought for sure it was mountainous due to flavor and the number of threads we've both posted in that were full of criticisms of cop+doc setups. If I were scum I would've been all for the fake-cop claim. I think that was a good move, that just didn't work this time.

[Adel]

I enjoyed it as well. I thought our little brawl did a pretty good job of outing jer, and I was totally under the impression that we were in a 2:10 mountainous setup with a lone scum remaining, and I didn't want to draw the NK.

[Adel]

By the way, what the HELL did you have on Flay? Was it all just one big gambit?

more intuition than anything else. The non-movable vote thing was an intentionally erratic action designed to provoke "interesting" reactions from other players. I think scum have an easier time when everything is smooth sailing, so I like to churn the water up when I think I can get away with it.

[Adel]

Pretty much every time I draw the nk as a vanilla townie (when there are extant powerroles) I consider it to be a personal win.

[Adel]

I absolutely detest Adel's play style

Do you mind if I sig you on that?

[Adel]

cool, thanks.

[Adel]

At least you continued following the game. Hopefully you'll be ready to try another after you get more comfortable with mafia from the newbie games.

[Adel]

thanks!