Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!

[Oman]

Hey noobs and...CKD...JESUS!

Whatever, I'm reading, will post, but its like, 30 pages of your childish bickering.

See you soon.

[Oman]

Unvote

If my predeccesor was, and just because it will have no effect on the game

VOTE CKD

GET OUT OF MY GAMES

[Oman]

Ugh, I'm gonna be damn slow as I've replaced into two 30 page games.

[Oman]

Unvote

Okay, that joke has gone on long enough.

[Oman]

Oman is back. Sorry i PMed my Mods instead of posting in the game cause I'd probably forget one, someone would meta it, and it would be some dumb alignment argument on me.

Anyways...rereading the rest of this. I don't really like either case at the moment. I understand D3 usually is full of hidden cop presses or secret doc confirms (especially with the lack of NK), so I don't want to put anything away yet. Coming into a game D3 takes a lot more thought IMO than coming in D1.

[Oman]

I believe the contradiction was well established by this point, yet Flay seems reluctant to lynch Korlash. He finds it necessary to make it clear that, if Korlash is a townie, he's a lousy townie (which is absolutely true), and this seems to be a more central reason for Flay's vote than Korlash's lie.

I personally don't see the problem with Flay saying that someone who is a hindrance to the town (to such an extent) is worth a vote. If he was pushing hard for the lynch I wouldn't like it, but its not really that heavy.

The fact that Korlash's playstyle is a hindrance to him being helpful to the town is not a good basis for lynching.

His playstyle being "Krap logic" is more a joke than an actual reason to lynch. I fail to see where anyone cited his meta as a reason for a vote.

I think Jitsu's questions in 882 are reasonably made,

Agree

and the Flay's response does not really address the relevant points

Disagree:

You don't agree with Adel about Jerub?

Upon re-reading the entire thread, there seemed to be a LOT of wagon-pushing on Anata/Setael. Some of that is due to lurking an actual scumminess, of course, but Adel had a good point with her "the Miztef wagon and the Korlash wagon have some crucial differences" observation.

I'd like you to clarify. Do you mean you think Jerub is innocent?

As for jerubbaal, I'd like to play that one a little close to the vest for now,

If so, that's quite a reversal of your opinion from earlier where you FoS'ed Jerub along with me. Any specific reason why?

That works for me.

I am most suspicious of Flay

Can you please go over these again Pre-this post (i.e. not including anything after post 879)?

[Oman]

Hai Adel.

[Oman]

I would also like to say I disagree with Lynching Lurkers on Day Three of a mini.

[Oman]

With the amount of posting Oman does (14.5 posts/day average) why on earth doesn't he contribute more to this game? Seriously.

I knew I'd get a bad meta.

Okay, well, I was going to lurk in protest, because I think this wagon is lame in D3. But then I realised Gunslinger was pretty close to this too.

One thing I don't like about Adel (pushing this got me interested, as I don't remember Adel being a Lurker-hater).

Adel seemed to go on the Korlash wagon with preknowledge.

Adel puts the vote down straight away, after only skimming the thread.

nah, I think I'll lurk for the rest of the day, leaving my vote on you because you are the person I think is scum. I don't feel like explaining why the sky often appears blue today, and I don't feel like laying out my case against you.

this is the scummiest post I've read so far, by any player. I'm caught up through #449. Korlash is scum, and knows who isn't scum. He didn't want to push the wagon on Anata- he wanted to be on the record warning against it. Anata Setael is therefor is an innocent.

This was in response to a large post by Korlash about the Anata wagon, I believe. Korlash was against it. Adel takes this to mean that Setael MUST be innocent, which is rediculous as it makes sense to me that a mafia member would defend a scumbuddy.

you have not had a scum-powered wagon on you today.

This is interesting as a conclusionary point.

I've explained my case against you.

Unfortunatly, its a horrible case.

I calculated the following odds based upon past games I've played in or read:

Korlash's chance of being Town-Aligned: ~28%
If Korlash is Town-Aligned, the chance of him being a powerrole: ~15%

These are great numbers for a Day 1 lynch candidate! About the lowest I've ever seen.

This is rediculous. She comes to conclusions based on her own assumptions. ((I hope everyone has seen that Scrubs episode.)) That powerroles wouldn't act that way, that he is spamming etc. THIS IS KORLASH, first off, secondly, I know he was mafia, but I wouldn't have lynched him on your case.

FoS Jerrrubal ,FoS Miztef

I wouldn't be surprised if one of these was a scumbuddy with Adel and Korlash

instead of sharing my true reasons and cases, I shared my data instead.

Should you trust my models? of course not. That is why I've provided additional, more traditional, cases against him.

Noting that these two contradict, but moving on. You're traditional cases are lame. And your models don't show me any reason Korlash is scum.

The presence of a mafia roleblocker suggests that we have both a cop and a doc in our town.

Not scummy, but well done, you just figured out a mini normal setup that are pretty much all the same.

I encourage to look at two easily found stats.
On my wiki page, and on Miztef's wiki page are listed games we've participated in.
On our respective profile page it show the total number of gameposts we've made to date on mafiascum.net.

The combination of the two stats (number of games played, and number of posts made) is a good indicator for relative experience with forum mafia. The number of posts made is used as a rough proxy for "number of games read" since both numbers have a direct correlation with a player's interest in mafia.

Miztef cited one game where he was a town aligned roleblocker. That is a perfect example of anecdotal evidence.

Well done, a perfect example of Appeal to Authority.

If it were anyone else I would argue she was "bussing" but I know that is not the case.. weird...

Scum, expecting to die by lynch, attempts to connect himself to a towie, to cast some amount of later suspicion on that townie.

You know, I came to the same conclusion as Korlash before I saw that post.

I choose not to reveal my thoughts at this time, but I will encrypt them to reveal later,

This is horrible, and I hate you for it. Okay, I'm over it now, but I'm still not happy you did it.

Mr. Flay writes, "If I had known you were going to do that again" could also be read as "if I knew that I ws going to be scum against you where you pulled out more of your townie tricks"...

This is stupid.

he was creating a strawman argument to undermine the use of statistics as evidence. it was not a sincere or earnest case

You created a strawman argument to undermine Setael's credibility.

[To Mr. Flay]show us your cards.

I'm just using the cipher to "hold my cards close to my chest"

Double standard much?

Adel, may I ask you thoughts on Jerrubal? You're voting Setael when you said Jerrubal was Korlash's scumbuddy.

Vote Adel

[Oman]

and what kind of post from Oman will warrant everyone's unvote? Posting and providing content are two different things...I will assume that the vote on Oman is to get him to provide content..

Hopefully that will.

Also on Adel, Adel has been on Korlash and Setael wagons.

Setael is Adel's current wagon actually.

"But wait Oman, didn't Adel earlier say Jerrubbal was the scumzor?" Yes, and I'll tell you what else:

Anata

Setael is therefor is an innocent.

Vote Adel

[Oman]

Adel: Laziness, its a 39 page game. I don't want to go through it multiple times, so I procrastinated.

Um, did you not realize that Adel is voting YOU right now?

Yeah but it was a pressure wagon, so I didn't count it.

And how exactly did Adel create a strawman argument to undermine Setael's credibility?

I thought I posted it. Oh well:

Ah, found it. It was during the whole "town RB?" thing. Where Adel got into Sateal about town aligned roleblockers etc.

Acutally, now that I consider it, strawman isn't the right word, but Adel was arguing semantics whilst not touching the bigger picture.

[Oman]

Why don't you feel pressured?

I will put a pressure vote on him

Oman: you can stop this process right now by posting.

I think it was more that I just knew that I could post and it would go away (that is, it wasn't stated there was no reason other than lurking stated).

[Oman]

I don't like the way Mr Flay wont take the vote off regardless of my large post concerning Adel.

Please explain how that fits an "active lurker"

Also, i'm Limited Acess across the entire site, so don't say over the next few days that I'm lurking. My home net died (talking to the Isp about it) and so I've got to use public computers instead.

[Oman]

Flay, i just got limited access at the time of the post, otherwise I would've mentioned it.

Unvote

Flay made some intereesting points about Adel's behaviour as scum adn town and how this effects my thoughts about her overly complex play.

[Oman]

Yeah, also, it wasn't OMGUS from my side either

[Oman]

back and off limited access, I'm really sorry about my crappy contribution to the game, but it just occured at a bad time (I'm sure Adel's meta found that I wasn't posting in any games).

[Oman]

I've found that Mr Flay has been quick to vote people during this game, but I have not found him quick to unvote if wrong.

[Oman]

By all means, lynch one of myself, Setael, or Adel today. I don't see any other options will not let this drag out for another day's worth of distraction.

I agree. I think Setael, Flay, and myself should be the only people voted upon for the rest of this day. One of us three should hang, and soon.

Unvote Vote Adel

[Oman]

I believe I was already voting you anyway, you know why I'm doing it, if not go back a few pages.

[Oman]

Okay, so it was 5 pages back: 938 and 939

Adel, you never answered my question: How do you feel about Jerrubbal right now?

[Oman]

Well Adel, I'm just interested as you were so sure you'd caught all three scum, and after korlash's lynch you just walked away from Jerrubbal. I happen to think the scumgroup is you korlash and jerrubbal.

[Oman]

I read your case on Adel originally. Why Jerubbaal?

Adel said Jerrubbal was definatly scum with Korlash, lynched Korlash, and now leaves Jerrubbal alone. I need to do a Jerrubbal reread.

[Oman]

Adel, please stop strawmanning me.

[Oman]

Well sorry that I overstated your position. But you were fairly confident in your latter posts. You were still strawmanning me.

[Oman]

You were strawmanning me Adel, you took my entire thought process on you down to that thing with jerrubbal, you said "the implicit logical seems to be if jerrubbal is scum than I must be scum. Why Oman would vote on me rather than him isn't clear to me. " Even though I have other reasons.

Die more pluz.

[Oman]

Adel isn't voting me, doesn't feel I'm scum. Explain the OMGUS there please.

I'm afraid Adel just made you look terribly dumb, Oman.

With Adel, I'm used to it. Thats what happens when you argue with intellectual superiours.

[Oman]

Oman, is your vote on Adel only because you think the likely scum group is Korlash, Adel and jerubbaal? Based on the fact that Adel pushed Korlash hard since he came in and then named jerubbaal as his likely partner and then has since backed off of that accusation?

Ya, mostly.

I think Adel has just done a lot of work and a lot of talking without saying anything. Also note that I feel that in Adel's character (huge meta here), she would gladly sac a scumbuddy straight up.

[Oman]

This is the part of it I don't like.

You say Adel is town because she wouldn't bussed Korlash and names Jerrubaal and doesn't actually go after Jer. Whereas I say she is scum for those very reasons.

How ironic.

[Oman]

I think she felt she could get away with it. Naming the other partner helps to cemet the "townie scumhunting skills".

Do you think he would have planned to name the other scum partner and then back off of that? Or do you think that he changed his mind?

I think she thought she could name D2 and avoid it D3 with noncomittal references.

[Oman]

Sudo, is there any reason you are not voting for Setael?

[Oman]

Glass houses Adel.

[Oman]

Science?

[Oman]

I feel the Flay lynch has two scum on it, I suggest someone gets on Adel to stop this.

[Oman]

I feel the Flay lynch has two scum on it, I suggest someone gets on Adel to stop this.

If I am the lone non-scum on Flay's wagon, why on earth is your vote on

me

?

That was pretty good. I smiled.

[Oman]

Oh, I thought you were joking.

You're one of the scum. Silly Adel, forgetting your Role PM like that.

[Oman]

I'm picking up slight scumvibes from CKD here, mostly the fence sitting that I've seen him do as scum before (Baby too much scum).

If Adel is town, he'll be my first to look at.

[Oman]

Really Oman? I encourage everyone to read this game that Oman is quoting..not only did I do very little fence sitting, I was quite aggressive. Oman where in that game was a fence sitting? here is a little WIFOM to chew on...why do you even know I am fence sitting? Because I told you.

Actually you're right. I was thinking of the final two days, more or less. Still the situations aren't comparable.

I withdraw my previous statement on CKD.

These two

If Flay proves to be scum I'll take a closer look at Oman, but for now I'm not gunning for him.

Oman thinks Adel is scum (thus the vote) but puts in the disclaimer that if Adel is town, I will be the first he will look at. Oman why dont you provide the same disclaimer for Flay?

Make me use CKD's logic on Adel: Adel knows Flay is scum as is using it to springboard an attack on me.

Actually, I don't believe that, as Adel and Jer are the scumz.

Oh and CKD:

Oman why dont you provide the same disclaimer for Flay?

Because I don't believe Flay to be town, and if Flay is lynched town, then Adel is still my scumpick. Why would I make it for Flay?

[Oman]

I dont wholly believe Flay to be town. He fits my "unsure" category, more town than Adel.

Regardless, my scumpicks are Adel and Jer.

[Oman]

although my evaluation of Oman is somewhat dependent on Flay's alignment.

Am I right in assuming Flayscum = Omanscum?

[Oman]

Whilst

a "wion" is like a "win", but with more celebration...

that made me laugh. Onto the game:

If Adel is in fact claiming cop I will jump on Flay.

I do not believe Adel to be an isane cop because this explains her work on Korlash: cop with guilty. It also explains why she dropped the case of Jer (she had a guilty on someone else).

I'm going to get slammed for this: Adel, I'd like to know either way.

[Oman]

Unvote Vote Mr Flay

If he's town, I'm after you tomorrow Adel.

Your inability to claim is either a cop-tell or a scum-tell (or a townie drawing a NK).

I guess we'll know more later.

[Oman]

I read it as such too CKD.

[Oman]

You actually changed that CKD.

Remember you were all "What the fuck?" and I was all "oh yeah".

[Oman]

6 people alive.

Two scum (I assume this, as we've only had 1 NK, and two scum for a 12 p game is rediculous)

two scum, 4 town.

we lynch AA (if town)

Scum NK

2 scum, 2 town

Endgame.

or

we lynch AA (if scum)

Scum NK

1 scum, 3 town

probably with a "cop" alive (to throw suspicion on Setael/setael is scum)

Hmm..

the scum also have to consider the possibility of a doc and/or an RB.

Vote Abstract Actuary

Thats a big risk for them to take.

[Oman]

Unvote

Vote Jerrubball

I want to see these crumbs too.

[Oman]

Nah, it makes sense. And your logic about inv. Korlash beats Sets.

I say we lynch Jer. Then set.

[Oman]

Oman, specifically, do you always believe every claim you hear immediately?

No.

Oman, I dont agree with you.

And that *pause* is why you fail.

All things constant, I can understand a jer., then Set lynch, but why dont we wait to see what Night actions (tonight) information develop.

Do you mind me asking whether you indend to invesitgate Setael tonight?

Also I count 7 people, not 6 (Oman, CKD, Set, AA, Jerb, Sudo, and Jitsu.)

My bad, I read the first post, it has stikethroughs

I think it's very doubtful there are 2 cops in this game, but I can see why CKD would mention the possibility, since all he has to do is pull off one mislynch for a win.

The last line is incorrect. 7 people, two mislynches.

THe only way there would be 4 scum, would be with 2 cops, or a hell of a lot of other roles.

So, basically, there are still 3 scum and with 7 players left, if we mislynch today, scum win.

I disagree. 3 scum seems to help you, so that MUST be the soloution.

Why did you ask for a claim from Adel (saying you would switch if she had a guilty on Flay) and then switch to Flay anyway, even though she refused to claim?

Adel is crafty, and I read the "I refuse to claim" as either a townie or a cop. There was no way I could see scum Adel pulling that.

THERE WAS NO REASON TO CLAIM COP AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY!

This is so full of truth.

Unvote

I need to think more about this, CKD's logic is not proof of town.

[Oman]

AA's plan looks good.

Vote Set

[Oman]

Wait? Shit, did I win?

I missed the last day

[Oman]

I picked it N3 CKD, though I couldn't say anything grr.

Anyway, I felt pretty bad about that game, I had Jer for all the wrong reasons, sorry Adel, I guess you just played really damn well.

That last nights protect was going to be interesting for me, because I realised CKD would not have been the target, but I was likely to. So I dropped the hammer trying to seem as scummy as possible, knowing I had tghe claim up my sleeve.

[Oman]

I wasn't going to protect, the original PM said "NONE" Because I decided if CKD dided we'd know one of the scum, and if anyone esle died, there was me, CKD, and Jitsu that I knew were innocent.

Plus after CKD said "Doc protected me N2" I wanted to see if the mafia would no-kill and who would claim the protection.

[Oman]

Adel, I'm sorry I took your fantastic scumhunting as scummy, but Jesus, you were too good to be true.