Mini 539: Game over

[Gorgon]

Hi. Reading now. This will take a bit of time, so bear with me.

[Gorgon]

Well, I finally finished the read. Sorry for the time it took, but there were a lot of long posts there, and I wanted to take it all in.

I think Apy is not a bad lynch for today. He's been acting weird, to putting mildly ... nothing solidly scummy, though, but I feel his interaction with Claus was particularily damning. Mind you, it could have been a ruse by Claus to cast suspicion on Apy, should he (Claus) get killed and revealed as scum, but I'm not sure he thought that far ahead.

Xtomx is my second choice. I just get a bad vibe from him. Nothing solid, which is why he's my second choice, but I'm definitely suspicious of him.

It's good that Incognito and SSK were both revealed as masons (who should be given the benefit of the doubt for now, obv. It's unlikely that they are not both actually protown masons, seeing that this is a normal mini) - since I found them both suspicious.

It's late where I am, and I'm tired, so that's all I have for now. More later. If you have any questions, please let me know.

[Gorgon]

No, I said that if Incog is telling the truth (and a mason), then Mafia would likely be his true partner. If Incog is lying and scum, then Mafia is likely not his partner.

What I said in a nutshell is that if Incog is scum instead of Mason, he probably hasn't outted his partner.

I don't believe the claim because it came with nearly no pressure and very early on Day 2. There was absolutely no strategic reason for him to not only claim, but also to out his partner. (If he has done that)

I agree that the claim was most likely premature, especially since he named his partner as well, but to suggest that Incog could be scum stating a false partner is pretty silly - SSK would then just say "No, Incog is not my partner", and that would be the end of that.

SSK hasn't denied the claim, so that means they are indeed both masons, or both scum. The second possibility is too remote to address today.

[Gorgon]

Hjallti is right about the statistical error ... I noticed this at the time but didn't feel like commenting on it. It's not an alignment tell either way, anyway. Is it? Although it is of course better to be clear on those things.

Regarding Shteven ... appearing to 'know' that there are three scum in a mini is a weak tell, IMO. I see town do it all the time. It's rare that there are not three scum (read: mafia) in a mini, so it's a fair assumption.

I'm leaning towards both Shteven and kuribo being town.

[Gorgon]

Just a heads up. I'm still alive and all, but I'll be bogged down at a workshop all day. I'll try to post stuff tonight.

[Gorgon]

Between these comments and the digging into Claus's attacks on your replaced player, I'm starting to feel you're town pretty strongly.

I don't really see Claus attacking Apy that hard. Do you?

Anyway, I was looking back at what ChronX was saying, myself.

First off, I noticed a possible connection with Xtomx.

YTHill mildly chides xtoxm for answering a question directed at MafiaSSK. Yet when Incognito does something similar, YT seems to feel the heat and unvotes.

This can be interpreted in a number of ways, but the impression I get is that ChronX seems to be suggesting that Ythill is distancing himself from Xtomx. Quite convenient, if Xtomx is scum and gets killed as one, to be able to 'point' to this later.

I don't especially like that several players are coaching xtoxm to play better. I would prefer to let him flounder on his own and hold him accountable later. It will however, be useful to keep in mind who has been there with the virtual arm around his shoulder.

Oh really? ChronX explicitly states that he will let Xtomx 'flounder on his own' and 'hold him accountable later', and tries to make the people who are defending him suspicious ... even saying that it will be 'useful to keep in mind' who defended him? Useful when? Again, when Xtomx gets exposed as scum, perhaps?

Also, I note that ChronX never even mentioned Xtomx again ...

This warranted a study of what Claus had to say about Xtomx.

Xtomx

: I like his play. He seems direct with his accusations and his defenses. His vote follows his opinions, and his opinions are consistent. Also, he does not verborrage

That's it? This doesn't really say all that much. Also, I note that (unless I missed something), at the time Claus posted this, Xtomx had only voted one single time. Why then does Claus suggest a pattern of Xtomx's vote following his opinions? Also, Xtomx's opinions are consistent? So?

This analysis just doesn't look very genuine to me. Now, scum analysis is always less than genuine, but this strikes me as particularily muddled.

The kuribo x xtomx x Ythill love triangle

Again ... trying to connect town with scum Xtomx, just like ChronX did?

Another player that I could see a ChronX/Claus connection with is Ho1den (now Hjallti). ChronX only mentions him once (in a possible mild distancing fashion), and so does Claus:

Another lurker. Some of his posts I like (the Apy accusation, the questions to DS, and those to Ythill and Incognito regarding SSF), but he has a very timid style of accusing and not voting, or voting then later saying that he didn't want to lynch the person, that I find scummy. Middle of the road for me.

This reads to me like a pretty classic way of characterising a scum buddy. You don't want to attack them too strongly, but then again, it's quite convenient to make it known that you're not exactly defending them either. Claus can easily be said to be covering all the bases here. Also, he mentions bigger fish to be fried, thus leaving himself free to ignore Ho1den.

However, Ho1den came pretty aggressively at ChronX ... doesn't look all that much like distancing to me. Especially since Ho1den correctly points out ChronX's passive-aggressive attacks on him. I don't see scum making passive-aggressive attacks against a partner, and much less I see the same partner actually pointing this out.

ChronX never mentioned kuribo, Northjayhawk/Shteven, Apy, and JP at all.

Claus put kuribo in his 'Unlisted' pile, along with Ho1den, but attacked kuribo more strongly. I still feel kuribo is not scummy; he's certainly not top priority in my book.

Claus was pretty jolly towards Shteven, but that might easily be buddying up ...

Claus came pretty strongly against JP, and JP attacked pretty strongly back. Mutual distancing? Seems a little far-fetched ... especially since JP's clash with Claus seems quite reminiscent of his spat with known town Ythill. Also, JP started suspecting ChronX pretty early on.

Claus attacked Apy somewhat, yet seemed to be coaching him as well (Claus' post 6). However, the overall impression that I get is that Claus was buddying up to newbie town in order to look good, while still not dismissing him as a lynch candidate ... he stated multiple times that he liked others' cases against Apy.

However, this (directed at JP), bothers me a bit:

You started cool (loved your "hate pressure votes" comment), then eventually settled on Apydog. Then when you come under fire by Yth, you set all your cannons on him - eventually to the point of forgetting your previous attacks on Apy.

I can see this as a way of setting JP up to look bad if Apy gets outed as scum; like Claus is suggesting distancing from Apy on JP's behalf. Maybe I'm overthinking this, though ...

Incognito/SSK ... they're claimed mason, so I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt for today.

Regarding Claus' Nice/Unlisted/Naughty division ... if we assume Incog and SSK are masons, 3/5 of the people on Claus' Naughty list are town. Of the two remaining (JP and Apy/Jester), I find the latter that much more likely to be scum. However, I tend, at this point, to think both are town. Neither should be dismissed easily, though. I'm not sure Claus would have gone as far as to place both (yes, assuming 3 scum, which is a reasonable assumption) his scumbuddies in the 'Nice' category. However, it is not that unlikely that he put at least one buddy in there, especially as there were four in all in this category.

So, I guess Xtomx is my top suspect now. Mostly due to his possible connection with Chronx, and, to a slightly lesser extent, Claus. However, this is far from solid; I'm having a hard time separating the wheat from the chaff in this game right now. I'd love to hear some opinions on these thoughts of mine.

[Gorgon]

A brief delay before my post #3, which I promise will be up within the hour. But there's a clump of it that doesn't really fit with the rest, and I felt like it made more sense to separate that clump into its own post.

I feel his interaction with Claus was particularily damning.

Could you go into more detail here?

To be honest, no. I no longer feel that this statement of mine was accurate. It was an impression that I had - one that I don't have any more, after looking into things better.

My impression was mostly based on Claus welcoming Apy back into the game, while also coaching him somewhat (Claus' post 6). However, as can be seen in my last post, I have changed my mind my overall impression of the Apy/Claus link after a more careful review of the game.

[Gorgon]

5) I didn't have much of a bone to pick with him, frankly. He was only alive for half a day, and I hadn't found much to disagree with him about. Most of his reads were simple and accurate -

scum only have to lie about one or two teammates (usually scum throw some attacks on one partner, give or take)

. I didn't detect it, and still don't think his list was noticably inaccurate. I already mentioned where we disagreed.

The bolded part is a simplification, IMO. Scum have to play a much more subtle game of deception than just lying about their partners. Ideally, they want to get townies lynched, right? And this of course entails making up bogus cases against them. Well, either that, or following along wih townies' cases against each other, but that sort of behaviour is, of course, scummy. Primarily, what scum have to fake is

uncertaintly

. They know everything, but they must not let on that they do.

Anyway, I'm not sure this has much bearing on the current game. I find your answers to Jesters' and kuribo's case to be pretty credible. I don't find the case to be strong, and can elaborate on this in detail if anyone wants me to.

I am intrigued by Jester's case on Ho1den/Hjallti, though - Jester looks into things that I missed, and they only add to my own suspicions. I can see my vote going there ... there are certainly enough solid points building up against him.

I would, however, like to hear thoughts on what I have to say about ChronX's and Claus' interactions with Xtoxm. Shteven has addressed this somewhat, but no one else has.

[Gorgon]

Hjallti - NFL refers to National Football League; the common stereotype of an NFL commentator is of someone who mostly only describes exactly what is going on.

Anyway, kuribo wanted me to explain why I don't quite buy the case against Shteven. Perhaps it's just as well as I do this, even though it will take a bit of time to collect my thoughts and put them down coherently ...

Let's begin with kuribo's Post 563. Here is what he brings up about Shteven:

He was on Claus' "Nice" list, which while trivial, bears noting.

Indeed it is trivial. Although I agree that there is most likely at least one scum on Claus' Nice list, this fact says nothing about who it may be, by itself.

His predecessor, Jayhawk, got very defensive and even quit while under pressure.

At most a slight scumtell, IMO. This has been discussed quite a bit over the course of this game, and it appears I'm not the only one who has this opinion.

Shteven was one of the early driving forces behind the DS-lurker lynch.

A fair point. Advocating lurker lynches is scummy, IMO. Shteven did address this point, though - and not in an unreasonable manner.

Shteven tried to gloss over Day 1 interactions by saying:

How about, instead, you tell us what you think of day 2 events?

This is taken completely out of context. From what I see, this is addressed to SSK, who said:

I should have been replaced by now, but luckily our mod is a lazy mod. =D

So,

from the context

, Shteven was merely encouraging SSK to comment on what had happened so far. To say that this was an attempt to "Gloss over day 1 events" is an overstatement, to say the least.

Then, as Xtoxm (who I've disagreed vehemently on many occasions with) pointed out, Shteven and Claus didn't seem to interact with one another--- and for that matter, I've noticed that when they did, it was a bit "in passing:"

@Stephen
About Justin:
It is not the length of his posts. It is the fact that I can't really feel that he is attacking anyone (other than his earlier Ythill attacks). Reading him in this game (don't wanna read your link now), I feel I'm listening to a politician about non-popular matters.

That right there seems like he's saying, "I should respond, but I don't want to draw a possible link between us."

Meh. I don't see this the same way as kuribo does. It's reaching. Claus already 'draws the link' by responding. Why would he draw a bigger link by going into detail? It doesn't make much sense to me.

Then, there's the post following Claus' NK:

As for looking over the list, it's a good idea, but I'd go about it a slightly different way. Scum usually hinge their bets on such lists; so it's likely the the other scum are spread out on the list. Focusing on just the nice or just the naughty won't help much.

Gee, I wonder why we should disregard his Naughty/Nice designations? Could it be because he made a mistake in listing his scum partner as nice? Maybe, maybe not.

Indeed. Maybe, maybe not. I feel Shteven's responses to this are quite adequate, and not over-defensive. Shteven's initial premise, that it's likely that the scum are spread on the list, is valid, regardless of whether he's scum or town. Note that he didn't even dismiss the possibility that there might be scum on the 'Nice' list.

Coming up: Jester's points against Shteven.

[Gorgon]

Now, onto Jester, in post 629 ...

Northjayhawk got on a very early Xtoxm band-wagon, apparently randomly (16). Then, when questioned on it, he suddenly said it was a serious vote and went out of his way to justify it (39).

I don't see anyone 'questioning' NJH's vote. Unless you mean Ythill's 19, which hardly qualifies - in fact, in post 97, NJH explicitly states that he never replied to Ythill's 19, and explains that his comment was not prompted by any pressure. Ythill did place pressure in post 84, to which NJH's 97 is a reply. I believe that all in all, this is a perfectly reasonable reply.

Then, when he was pressured on this, he tried to defend himself (101), then flipped this post into a weird little justification against "arguing for innocence", which made no sense to me.

'Tried to defend himself' is a loaded way of putting it. Do you mean to say that he did a poor job of it? How so? Also, his "arguing for innocense" point was a restatement of a question he already asked in post 97, and which Ythill did not answer to his satisfaction. It is plain to me to see why town-NJH could be pissed off at this point; he gets accused of not answering questions, while not really getting his own question answered.

Regarding his point, I believe it's plain to see, even though everyone might not agree with it:

Suppose every one of us started throwing around fingers of innocence and arguements for town along with FoS and votes? Wouldnt that just be a huge blinking neon sign to the scum saying "lynch [Later corrected to

kill

] these people to win"?

Please let me know if this line of thought is unclear to you.

Ythill (correctly) called him out on it, and his response was an over-reaction to say the least (135). I really feel like NJH felt like he was digging himself into a hole, and abandoned the game rather than try to defend his questionable actions.

Again, what did Ythill call NJH out on? Ythill and NJH's argument dissolved into Ythill accusing NJH of having lied about his playstyle, after which NJH quit the game. Scum or town, NJH had reason to be even more pissed over all this. Anyway, I encourage people to read this spat for themselves. I for one fail to see the uberscumminess in it.

What kuribo misses: Shteven immediately agreed with most of Claus's lists (317)... until Claus was found to be scum, at which point, Shteven felt there was limited value to looking at the lists (476).

Again, Shteven did disagree on some things on Claus' list .. yadayadayada. Also, " Shteven felt there was limited value to looking at the lists" is an oversimplification. Again, Shteven was commenting on Incognito's idea of looking at the categories Claus placed people into, warning that it was likely that the scum were spread throughout these categories. By no means did Shteven imply that there was 'limited value' in the lists. Also, why would you not immediately look at something differently than before when you discover that it was written by scum?

Bah ... Jester and kuribo have other points, but I'm tired now. Perhaps I can offer more later, but hopefully this is sufficient.

Bottom line is ... my gut tells me Shteven is more likely to be town than not. And this analysis on Jester's attacks on Shteven doesn't win Jester many favours with me. To be honest, kuribo's attacks look much more genuine.

[Gorgon]

Just a quick post to reflect my general thoughts on the development of the game:

kuribo: Still looking town
Shteven: Looking less town
Jester: Looking more town
Hjallti: Still looking scum
Xtoxm: Looking slightly more town
JP: Still looking town

I will expand on this later; don't have the time right now.

Also, I want to see stuff from Xtoxm and JP.

P.S. Goodposting by Jester above.

[Gorgon]

I'm unfortunately pressed for time this week, but the least I can do is vote.

Vote: Xtoxm

As before, I'm not entirely convinced on Shteven, nor kuribo. I also note that Xtoxm hasn't posted here in quite a while, while remaining active in other games. In fact, I would like to have him prodded as well.

[Gorgon]

There's still plenty of time before the deadline. I still have doubts about Stheven, but at least he has claimed vanilla townie, so he is a 'safe' deadline lynch. I'm not sure there will be time to switch over to someone else, but I would support the lynch of Xtoxm or Hjallti in that case.

Incognito, why did you vote Jester? Not that he couldn't be scum ... but lately he's been looking better and better to me.

[Gorgon]

Well, both claimed masons alive is an interesting turn of events.

What does it mean? Probably that the surviving scum wanted to pull a WIFOM. It's either that, or:

1) Both claimed masons are scum. I have little faith in this theory.

2) The masons are not confirmed townies. I have little faith in this as well. Unconfirmed masons are pretty rare, in my experience. Also, why would the scum mason not then kill his partner, to gain instant credibility ("Look, one mason came up town, so the other must be town too!"

Regarding theory 2), I have a question for Incog and SSK ... in your PM's, is your partner described as definite town? Please don't quote anything directly, of course, but I would like an answer to this, though.

Dismissing the possibility of scummy masons, the players that I have to consider are:

Hjallti
Xtoxm
kuribo
Justin Playfair

Of these, I still say Hjallti or Xtoxm are the most likely scum candidates, based on their play so far, plus the process of elmination.

Now that Shteven came up scum, I feel that it's unlikely that kuribo is scum, given how hard he went after him. Although the Jester kill

might

have been to give the message that Jester went after Shteven + Jester is town = kuribo went after Shteven + kuribo is town. I'm not sure how likely this possibility is though - there may be many reasons for the Jester kill ... but whatever it was, I don't think it was optimal play by the scummo.

I also still think JP is town, but he's a potential slippery customer. He should not be dismissed all too easily.

I know I was dead wrong about Shteven; he had me fooled pretty badly. A reread in light of him being scum might be quite enlightening.

[Gorgon]

L-1 ... time to claim I guess.

I am a

cop

. Unfortunately, I don't have much info for you. charter wasn't around to investigate N1, so he got no results. I myself investigated Jester tonight.

However, I most likely won't get counterclaimed, and that should be proof enough that I'm telling the truth, so I suggest you remove your votes right now. And please, if I get hammered, lynch the bastard who hammers.

There's absolutely no sense in me being lynched just to prove my claim. The scum will definitely want to NK me ... especially since I find it unlikely that there is a GF in this game, seeing that the two dead scum are only 'mafia', and not 'goons', or some such.

[Gorgon]

Hammer him.

F*ck you.

Vote: Xtoxm

[Gorgon]

I will get very pissed if I get lynched today. Call this appeal to emotion if you will, but it's not my fault that the game went to night with an absent cop, and then investigated the NK hit.

But go ahead and lynch an uncounterclaimed cop (because, again, I guarantee that I won't get counterclaimed) if you really think there is no cop in this game.

Anyway ... if you really do lynch me, don't do it right away, please. I have yet to reread the game, but I don't have time for that right now.

[Gorgon]

Regarding 'current affairs' ...

Xtoxm, please explain what you found scummy about Shteven. All through the end of yesterday, you were saying you thought he was scum, but never explained why. I would like to hear your reasons now.

[Gorgon]

Seriously guys, we don't have a cop. Lynch him. We alreayd saw how much power the town has...

Answer my question.

[Gorgon]

Then perhaps you can answer this line of thought ...

1) There's seven of us alive.

2) There is probably only one scum left.

3) From 1), and assuming 2) is correct, we have three lynches to spare before the town loses. Even if there are two scummos left alive, we have two lynches to spare.

4) A cop is a very useful role for the town, that the scum will probably not want to keep alive, especially since we have a dead doc. A lynched cop is. however, useless, and saves the scum the trouble of killing him.

5) In spite of the above, you want to lynch a claimed cop

today

, rather than, say, tomorrow, in the event that I will be alive by then.

Why?

I know the town seems overpowered with a doc, vig, two masons, and a cop, but, again, that's not my doing. It's frankly not my problem. All I know is that I am a cop, and that the rest of you would be extremely stupid to lynch me today.

[Gorgon]

I don't believe you, and only way to confirm it is kill. As you say we can afford mislynch so whats the matter.

Die scum.

A mislynch of a vanilla townie is way better than a mislynch of a cop. What part of this are you not getting?

Why do you need to confirm that I am the telling the truth

today

, when the consequences of you being wrong (which you are) are disastrous for the town?

This is stupid. I'm not saying another word until I have feedback on my claim from the other players. If they agree with you and refuse to look elsewhere today, I will self-vote and leave the game to you. I'll be done with this game.

Frankly though, you'd have to be one hell of a bold scum in order to go after me like this ... I find that it's more often town than scum that go after claimed powerroles in this fashion, so at least this speaks well of your role, if not your judgement.

[Gorgon]

Gorgon, if you're the cop, why did you choose to investigate Jester last night since even you yourself indicated that you found Jester to look fairly pro-town?

I had some second thoughts on this ... I felt for a while that Jester might have latching onto kuribo's case ... and when Shteven came up scum, this feeling grew stronger; the possbility that Jester was bussing a doomed buddy came to mind. Also, Jester seemed to me to be a potentially good scum, if he was one. I got taken in big time by Shteven, so I was ready to believe anything.

I was originally going to investigate JP, though (since he is hard to read), but changed my mind. I wish I hadn't.

Again, I know that a lot of facts don't speak well for me, but I would assume that an uncounterclaimed cop claim would be enough to at least buy me one last day.* Because unless the last scum really is a GF, it will be very difficult for him to refrain from killing me.

*If you're going to accuse me of being survival-oriented for this statement, then, yes, I am, damn it. I'm a cop, and I don't want to be lynched, when I make a much better NK target for the scum now that I've been outed. I obviously look highly suspicious already, which is partly deliberate (as a cop, I don't want to look too protown), so forcing the scum to NK me (or risk keeping me alive and outing him) is a sound town strategy. If I were a vanilla, I would have few defenses, and would gladly offer myself for the noose at the end of the day, if it looked inevitable, but not as a cop, dammit.

[Gorgon]

Fine, scrap the "bussing a doomed buddy" idea. It was nevertheless something that came to mind ... remember how I said that kuribo's case on Shteven looked more genuine than Jester's? Well, when Shteven came up scum, the idea that Jester was latching onto kuribo's case grew stronger, only in this scenario, Jester was not jumping onto a town target, but bussing a buddy. The exact timing of things is not something that I looked into.

You're claiming that your response to that question was enough to change my mind, when I said no such thing. Shteven coming up scum is what made me rethink the whole damn game.

Also ... my criteria when deciding on who to investigate was mostly to choose someone who was hard to read, not someone who looked the scummiest to me. Regardless of the outcome, having solid knowledge on these 'slippery customers' would be useful to me. I had little faith in my own judgement regarding this anyway .... especially with Shteven coming up scum, whom I had defended quite vigorously througout the day.

Vote remains on Gorgon unless someone counterclaims.

What the f*uck? You're going to keep your vote on a claimed cop unless someone counterclaims? Explain please?

P.S. The sad truth is that I've been skimming over the game again, and I just can't find that last scum. I'm seeing a lot of reasons for both Hjallti and Xtoxm to look town, and this doesn't leave anyone left. This whole game is a jumble to me. Perhaps this will change if I really take the time to reread ... but seriously ... I'm much better left as NK-fodder, and I find it baffling that I'm perhaps going to be the lynch today, when any rational person should

know

that

regardless of how scummy-looking and useless I look

, lynching an uncounterclaimed cop when there is plenty of leeway to lynch is stupid. Seriously ... if you guys do this, I will not play with anyone who is on board with this lynch ever again. Call this appeal to emotion or whetever the f*ck you want ... but it's the truth.

[Gorgon]

I've been looking over the game like crazy, trying to come up with some useful angles, but it's still hard going. I keep going round in circles, finding both townish and scummy things about every player.

Perhaps I need to sleep on it - it's getting really late here.

Anyway ... some comments ...

I like Justin's line of thought there. It's exactly the kind of rational stuff I was hoping to see in response to my claim. There is of course, the possibility of four scum, but that would be yet another reason for me to live, as most likely they're not both godfathers.

Incognito's post is also interesting, but I just wanted to mention something. Incognito assumes that the setup of the game might be similar to the one he describes, and then assumes that since that setup contains a GF, a cop (me) in this game would be useless for his investigative abilities. This is true. However, going the described setup, one can also assume that there is indeed a cop in the game. In fact, the assumption that there is a GF guarantees the existence of a cop, since what's the point of having a GF without having a cop?

Therefore, going by this line of thought, I

am

a cop, and therefore should not be lynched today, as I'm an uncounterclaimed cop in a setup that likely contains a cop. Of course, if there is a GF, he has more incentive than a goon to keep me alive, but that just means that the possibility of lynching me should be deferred until tomorrow, if I'm still alive then.

I know Incognito doesn't say directly that I'm lynchable since I'm useless as a cop, but I just wanted to make this clear. Bottom line is ... if I'm still alive tomorrow, consider lynching me, and I won't object as strongly as I do today, but I'm certainly not today's play.

And yeah, thanks for reminding me so bluntly that the vig is one-shot. I saw this numerous times when reading the thread, of course, but it didn't really register until I saw that setup described. A one-shot vig is significantly less powerful than a full vig, which is, again, one more reason to assume that I am a cop.

I know I probably still sound very unhelpful and survival-oriented, but that's because my cop claim is all I have going for me at the moment, and because I firmly believe that it would be suboptimal and antitown to lynch me and do the scum's work for them. Again, I probably would be today's lynch if I was a vanilla (although still, I probably would have acted more protown in this game if I were, but whatever), and I would not object too strongly to this, since I haven't been of much use so far in this game, and would most likely be a liability at LYLO the way things are going - but as a cop, I object most strongly to being lynched today.

So ... off to bed. Hopefully my mind will be clearer after some sleep.

[Gorgon]

Right ... at least my head is a little clearer after some sleep.

One last point regarding the game balance before I attempt to tackle the game itself ...

It's worthwhile to note the last mini I completed; Mini 523. In this game, the town had a doc, a cop, a (full) vig, and two masons. Us scummos had two goons and a roleblocker (me). Hardly a 'balanced' setup on the looks of it ... but we won anyway ... although it must be noted that the town lynched both a doc and a mason, and the cop claimed immediately D2 with an innocent result. Anyway, the point remains that nothing should be taken for granted when it comes to game setup.

Now onto the game itself ...

I'm not sure that Xtoxm is the best lynch, truth be told. Of course, I still stand by the fact that I'm having a hard time finding the best lynch candidate, but still ... at least other possibilities should be discussed.

One line of thought that I had last night, that stayed with me, is the fact that of all the people whom Claus listed as naughty, the only unconfirmed player left is Justin Playfair. I noted yesterday that Jester and Justin were the only unconfirmed players left on that list, but now only Justin remains. Of course, I also said back then that I felt both guys were town ... and I still feel that Justin is more likely town than scum, based on his play and his overall interactions with the known scummos. One funny (but completely irrelevant) point regarding Justin ... as I was driving to work today, I got behind a jeep that bore the personalized license plate

JP

. I'm by no means a superstitious person, though, so I regard this as nothing more than a funny cooincidence.

Do we believe that Claus listed no scumpartner as naughty? That's a big question, IMO. I stand by my statement that Justin should not be dismissed too easily.

One problem with the Xtoxm = scum theory is that it would mean that Claus placed two scummos in the 'nice' category. That's pretty blatant.

Then we have Hjallti. One suspicious thing about him is that Shteven didn't really have a lot to say about, or to him (or Ho1den). It seems to me that of all the players alive and unconfirmed (apart, arguably, from myself), Shteven had the least to say about Ho1den/Hjallti.

This particular quote (from this post) is interesting, though:

... It could point to possible distancing between Ho1dem and MafiaSSK; but that's a bit of a stretch. To test that theory I'd only be willing to lynch MafiaSSK due to his other mistakes, and only if he turned out scum would I still support a Ho1dem lynch on day 2.

Well, SSK no doubt won't turn out scum, and Shteven knew this. But how convenient to have a townie to lynch in order to 'test' whether a scumpartner is scum, huh? It works both ways as well ... if Ho1den should come up scum, Shteven can then go after SSK based on this 'theory' of his.

This is also interesting (from this post):

I'm going to wait before I come to a conclusion on Hjallti (Ho1den), but for now I'm leaning towards Kuribo on this count.

Followed by this later on (from this post):

Holden, now Hjallti - Unlisted - agree. Still want to give him a bit more time. His initial thoughts are pretty consistent with mine, though, so he'll probably move up.

No change. Very convenient.

Of course, there are problems with the Hjallti = scum theory, as with all others. The most obvious problem is the fact that Hjallti not only defended Shteven, but followed him in voting kuribo. Way too blatant and gutsy, IMO, in spite of the potential WIFOM element.

I have (probably way too much) more thoughts that I could share, but they are all along these lines ...

this

stuff points to this guy being scum, but then again, there's

that

stuff that doesn't.

I do find that writing this stuff helps to clear my mind somewhat more, though, so there will probably be more later, even though I'm not sure how helpful it will be.

[Gorgon]

Note to self: From now on in my games, I will throw any notion of what constitutes a 'balanced game' right out the window.

Not that the case against me doesn't have additional merits besides the fact that the game seems unbalanced with me as a cop ... I admit as much.

Unvote

As per what I said above, I'm not quite ready to lynch Xtoxm yet, and don't want to risk a hammer.

Incognito's case, logical as it is, is based mostly on assumptions about Claus' list. Surely there's more info out there as well, such as Xtoxm's play by itself? I also feel Incog is starting to trust JP way too much; healthy scepticism towards

every

nonconfirmed player in the game is essential for any townie.

I want everyone to chime in about the game so far before the day ends, and in particular about the potential connections they see between the two dead scum and other players. I'm sure there's something there, even though my own sight is cloudy.

I also want Xtoxm to answer my question regarding why he was starting to think Shteven was scummy yesterday. If he doesn't, I will definitely vote him out today. He has no valid reason to withhold this information.

[Gorgon]

I did that yesterday.

Where did you provide reasons for your suspicion against Shteven yesterday? Here are all your posts back then re: Shteven. I don't think I missed anything.

Hey...Not liking the votes on Kuribo. Still think he's town personally. I think Jester has made a good start. Although I can't help but wonder if he hasn't mentioned any suspicion of me because he wants to try and shake me off after what i've said.

I'm starting to think more and more Stheven is scum.

unvote vote Shteven

Jester's play has been pretty good I think. I think Stheven is scum.

Maybe I am a good lynch, if it'll help you figure out who scum are. I get the feeling if I make it to lylo i'd be the play. Which is v bad for town.

Well it's not an appeal to emotion. I think Stheven is scum. I can actually see Jester being town now. Hold1en maybe as the partner.

I think Kuribo is the most strong town based on play. I'd be

very

surprised if he was scum. Obv you and SSK are confirmed town.

If you remember what Ythill said about the Claus-Justin affair, I think this shows very good on Justin.

That leaves Stheven, Jester and Holden/hjallti, Gorgon/charter. From my point of view.

Although I think the points made about Claus setting up Apy as the next lynch shows good on Jester. I could see Stheven paired with either of the other 2.

Regarding your self-vote, I'm going to ignore that bit of silliness. Please play the game. I know I myself got upset over peoples' reluctance to accept my claim, but I've calmed down since then. So should you.

P.S. I hope you're ready to get egg on your when this game is over, if you really are town. If you're town, your tunnelvisioned dismissal of my claim, in the face of all logic, is one of the most destructive antitown sh*t I've ever seen.

[Gorgon]

w/e. If you were town you'd accept your lynch cos we have enough mislycnhes.

I will state this again, in plain language ...

I would accept my lynch if I were a vanilla townie, since there were no way that I would get NK'd any time soon, so the only way to 'get me out of the way' would be via a lynch.

I am, however, not a vanilla townie, but a cop, and therefore I do not accept my lynch, as there is still a chance that I might be able to get a scum tonight, and I am a threat to the scum, likely to get NK'd. Therefore it makes no sense for me to offer myself as a lynch today, when I

know

that it will be difficult for the scummo to leave me alive tonight.

What part of this is hard to understand?

And please provide a link to a game where a claimed cop (or failing that, another powerrole) voluntarily offered himself for the gallows, please.

[Gorgon]

viewtopic.php?p=938522#938522

lol - that happened in LYLO, and you got counterclaimed.

In this game, we are obviously not in LYLO, and I'm uncounterclaimed.

Plus, you obviously lost the game.

Fail.

Seriously - assume I'm really the cop (I know it's a stretch for you, but please do try). Do you really think the scummo would take the chance of leaving me alive? If he is a GF, of course, he's more likely to do so, but I'm not sure we have one. He could be a roleblocker as well, but I think that the scum probably would have blocked Ythill N1 if there was a roleblocker.

If you lynch me, that will make the scummo's life that much more easier. He can just pick out one of the masons tonight and be done with it.

Bottom line is, I'm not today's lynch, logically.

What exactly is unsound about the strategy of leaving me alive for one more night?

[Gorgon]

Ok. With amount of doubt on your claim, and i'm not the only one, there's no way you're being nightkilled. You have a crappy investigation if you were cop you should have gone for someone not lynching Stheven. Like H or JP. IMO.

And you are today's lynch logically.

Just cos someone claims cop doesn't mean they are immune.

So the scummo is just going to leave me alive on the (pretty bad) odds that I won't investigate him, simply because there are doubts about my claim? There's not a whole lot of unconfirmed players left you know. If we mislynch today, there will be three of those left tonight besides me.

Also, even if I get unlucky and investigate the wrong party, I will have an innocent result that will be useful. The scummo might try to counter that by killing one of the unconfirmed players, but he will be battling odds, plus also reducing the number of unconfirmed players, which is bad enough in itself.

Seriously, no matter what, tonight I will get information. If I'm still alive tomorrow, I can provide that information. If I'm still alive tomorrow, and there is still doubt, lynching me will at least confirm this information. Right now I have nothing, you know. My greatest fear is that the last scummo is a GF or a blocker, but I don't know that for sure, do I? I think the designation "Mafia" given to the lynched scum is a clue that there might not be a GF or an RB out there - which would make it that much logical for the scummo to kill me tonight. All the more reason for me to just let that happen, instead of having a lynch wasted on me.

Regarding my 'crappy investigation', I know I probably screwed that up. I should have gone for JP like I originally intended. This doesn't change the numbers though.

No matter what, it's very risky for the scummo to leave me alive tonight.

[Gorgon]

If you bring up a town result the chance of GF if you really are cop overrides it.

There's truth in that, but what about the rest of my argument?

[Gorgon]

Jester came up innocent, obviously.

I'm not going to explain my investigation of Jester any more than I already have. There's no way I can make it more credible than it is.

Xtoxm still hasn't answered my question, which I find f*cking insulting, and this one more reason to thrash him once the game is over, if he's town. Seriously, you're playing like a dick if you're, Xtoxm. Absolutely refusing to consider the possiblity that you're wrong is stupid, and again, I will taunt you no end over this once the game is over, if you're town. Just bear this in mind. It will be fun - if the town wins, that is. If the town loses, and you're part of it, I will hold you largely responsible. Refusing to answer reasonable questions and to explain your suspicions is antitown.

That said, I have gone over all of Jester's posts. I wish I'd done so sooner, since there's a lot of interesting stuff there - stuff that's enlightening to read. I recommend everyone else does this - Jester is very insightful at times.

Jester was quite suspicious of Hjallti, and had good reasons for it. I agreed with him on this at one point (but of course, my opinion about anything in this game is probably a moot point, and will remain so until my death, or the end of the game, whichever comes first).

My gut right now, coupled with my review of Jester's posts, tells me Hjallti is scum, and that Xtoxm is a misguided townie. On a personal level, I would like to lynch Xtoxm, but that's besides the point. Xtoxm is just too 'obvious' of a lynch. I feel his behaviour is most consistent with a townie who's dead sure he's right. If he's town, Xtoxm was dead on about Shteven yesterday (even if he refuses to explain why), so I could somewhat understand if he's full of himself now. Hjallti, however, is more slippery, and his behaviour is consistent with that of scum who doesn't want to rock the boat too much.

One thing about Justin's comments bothers me though ... Justin, a GF doesn't really have a great incentive to draw an investigation onto himself, as the cop typically won't reveal his results until he has a guilty, or under duress (as I did). There is therefore somewhat limited value to be found in having the cop investigate you - although of course as soon as the cop is forced to reveal his results, the benefits are plain. This undermines the case against Hjallti somewhat, unfortunately.

I do, however, see where Justin is coming from here. I agree that if Justin is scum, he has done an amazing job in this game, and kind of deserves a win. The same applies to kuribo. I do not think that they are scum, and really hope they're not.

I think Hjallti's suggestion to no lynch is a scumtell. Why would you want to do that as town while known masons remain alive? On this point, my gut tells me that Hjallti is trying to buy time so that he can kill me tonight. Also, the fact that Jester was so suspicious of Hjallti might indicate that Hjallti wanted him out of the picture. The WIFOM side of the coin says that Jester was killed in order to get the town to think along these lines, but that's WIFOM for you ...

Regarding the Jester kill, note that Hjallti is doing his best to cast suspicion towards Justin. While I agree with his sentiments somewhat, I see a lot of puzzle pieces coming together if I assume Hjallti is scum - killing one of the two guys whom Claus listed as Naughty, leaving only one on that list left alive, and then going after him and trying to get him lynched is a perfectly logical thing to do, if a little obvious.

I have therefore made my decision. I agree with where the town is going in that Xtoxm and Hjallti should be lynched, but I think Hjallti should be lynched first. I think it just might win us the game.

Vote: Hjallti

Again, my word is probably not worth much in this game at this point, but these are my thoughts nevertheless. If the rest of the town disagrees with me, I will go along with lynching Xtoxm.

[Gorgon]

Bah, I hadn't noticed this when I wrote the above:

Ok..I think I realised the *slight* advantage of not lynching Gorgon today.

If he doesnt get a scum result I say to lynch him, whatever the reason may be...He's not trustable enough...

I guess Hj would be the next one.

This is a pretty reasonable post, and Xtoxm gains townie points for it. I've said before that I would have less of a problem with being lynched tomorrow than with being lynched today, if it comes down to that. I also fully understand that I have little credibility with the town.

Yeah, I think Xtoxm is town.

[Gorgon]

Sorry if you honestly think i'm being a dick, that's not my intention. I just think you are the last mafiate.

Yeah well, I somewhat withdrew that statement of mine in my second post, and I apologise.

[Gorgon]

It is pretty obvious to me, as I've stated--- it's too convenient that he has only investigated the dead, and as a result won't confirm any living players for us.

I have

not

only investigated the dead. I've done so once. I wasn't around for the first night; charter was AWOL for the entire night. You can see this if you look back - he left the site before night hit, and I didn't replace in until D2. As a result of this, I got no investigation results for N1. I believe I've already explained this.

The problem comes with lynching a claimed cop--- if he's lying, we probably win the game. But if he's telling the truth, then the scum gets two kills: 1) our claimed cop that we lynched, 2) whoever they decide to kill off.

Also, if I was lying and you don't lynch me, you would lose very little - the game would still go on, and I'd still be alive to lynch. It's cost-benefit. Only a moron would lynch me today.

Incognito, you should go over both Xtoxm and kuribo, for completeness.

Reading your review of me, I note that two points against me seem to be that I was starting to feel that Shteven was less town than before as he got drilled more, and that I voted for Xtoxm after having said that he was looking more town. Regarding that vote, note my exact reason for my vote - he was inactive, I got suspicious of that, and I flushed him out with my vote. From the context, it was a perfectly reasonable action, and it annoys me that you don't take the reason for my vote into account, Incognito - you focus solely on the fact that I stated in my earlier 'quick review' that Xtoxm was looking slightly more town.

Even more telling--- he says that Shteven is scummy, Xtoxm is town--- AND THEN VOTES XTOXM. Why did you vote someone you believe to be town?

I did not f*cking say that Shteven was scummy, and that Xtoxm is town. I said that Shteven was looking less town, and that Xtoxm was looking slightly more town. There's a huge difference, and it's disingenous for you to present that summary of mine like that. In that very same post, I also said I wanted to see stuff from Xtoxm and JP. Xtxom didn't post, and I found this suspicious. I ended up voting him because he didn't post.

Seriously, I'll repost the damn thing for all to see:

Just a quick post to reflect my general thoughts on the development of the game:

kuribo: Still looking town
Shteven: Looking less town
Jester: Looking more town
Hjallti: Still looking scum
Xtoxm: Looking slightly more town
JP: Still looking town

I will expand on this later; don't have the time right now.

Also, I want to see stuff from Xtoxm and JP.

P.S. Goodposting by Jester above.

That short summary post of mine seems to be damning to the rest of you. If you want, I can go over exactly what I was thinking at that point, and explain the reasons for my readings ... if I can remember it all.

However, expending energy to defend myself today is a bit pointless, since the chances of me getting killed tonight are pretty damn high,

assuming you're not stupid and lynch me

. I prefer to defend myself tomorrow, if I'm still alive.

One thing though ... there's definite bias here. You're looking at one short summary post, and assuming beforehand that there are some ulterior motives behind it. You don't even bother to ask why I was thinking these things at the time.

Another thing that I must mention though that I find it odd that kuribo has gone from Xtoxm over to voting Hjallti, and now he's joining Incognito in attacking me. Opportunism much, kuribo?

It is also interesting to note that kuribo overblows the case against me. There's two points worthy of note here. I mentioned both of them earlier in this post, but I'll summarise.

1) He says I have 'only investigated the dead', when that's false.

2) He says that I said that "Shteven is scummy, Xtoxm is town", when that's false as well.

Another thing that I find

very

interesting to note is that after I voted Xtoxm on the grounds that he hadn't posted, kuribo chimed in to essentially agree with these suspicions:

I know I said that I've had an epiphany about Xtoxm, but the last 3 posts throw my theory into deep doubt.

If you're actively monitoring the thread, why aren't you around? Do I have to keep pressure on you to keep you around?

And if you're not reading the posts, why are you voting?

But now, looking back, kuribo is playing down the reason for that vote of mine on Xtoxm, and emphasising the fact that in an earlier posts, I had said that "Xtoxm was town",

an extreme exaggeration on his part

.

Seriously, read the whole of pages 29-30 and judge for yourselves.

Are these misrepresentations deliberate, or are they lapses due to not paying attention? A worhwhile question indeed.

P.S.

DON'T F*CKING LYNCH ME TODAY YOU MORONS!

Seriously, it would be unbelievably stupid. But if you really do, pay very special to kuribo tomorrow ... not that I would care much about this game if you lynch me today. You deserve to lose if you do.

[Gorgon]

Seriously, read the whole of pages 29-30 and judge for yourselves.

EBWOP: That should read pages 28-29.

[Gorgon]

MafiaSSK hasn't posted at all D3. This is unacceptable.

Mod, please prod MafiaSSK and have him replaced if he doesn't respond

[Gorgon]

To whom it may concern:

I'm on holiday, and have much less access to the Internets than I anticipated. I cannot say for sure when activity will be back to normal, except it will be on Monday at the latest.

[Gorgon]

Bah, I hate this game.

I investigated Justin Playfair and got an innocent. Otherwise I have no explanation. Why would I? It's not like I know any more than anyone else why I wasn't killed. Either there's a godfather out there, or a fearless mafioso.

It's no fun being alive. I didn't have much fun in this game yesterday, and today will most likely be more of the same - Xtoxm's vote won't move, and kuribo will keep throwing accusations left and right, exagerrating things with impunity. I don't care what anyone says - his 'points' against me yesterday were ludicrious, insulting, and involved huge amounts of misrepresentation. The sad thing is that I was the only one to point this out. The rest of you were pretty much going "Yeah, that's scummy, eh?".

I probably won't have much else to say today. I have no idea who the remaining scummo is, and I'll probably get lynched today anyway. Crappy game.

[Gorgon]

A few direct questions for kuribo, which I would appreciate if he could answer directly:

- Do you admit that it was inaccurate for you to say that I 'only investigated the dead'?

- Do you admit that it was inaccurate for you to say that in post 10, I said that, "Shteven is scummy, Xtoxm is town"?

- Do you admit that the reason why I voted for Xtoxm in this post, it was because he hadn't posted for a while, while remaining active in other games?

- Do you admit that you completely failed to mention this reason for my vote, while suggesting that all that happened was that I voted for Xtoxm while previously stating he was town?

You can lynch me after you answer these questions for all I care, but I would appreciate answers. These questions are pretty simple.

The reason for my asking? I don't much enjoy being falsely accused of shit I didn't do.

[Gorgon]

In other words, you are scum but you don't want us thinking falseity's of you.

That's fine, i'd feel exactly the same.

I f*cking knew someone would say this, and only this.

F*ck all of you.

Vote: Gorgon

[Gorgon]

P.S. If truth is irrelevant in mafia, that's all the more reason for me to give up this game. I find it astounding that it would be completely OK to make this many misrepresentations, and no one finds fault with it. I pointed all these falsehoods out to kuribo yesterday, and he made

no

attempt at answering any of it. He could of course be scum (I have no clue at this point), but not all of you are scum. That no townie in any way acknowledged the fact that kuribo was misrepresenting events and words,

after

I pointed all this out, is not only insulting, but detrimental to the game. A game that I no longer enjoy. It's time I did this:

Mod, please replace me. I no longer enjoy mafia, and I am leaving the site. So long, and thanks for all the fish.