Mini 588: Achewood Mafia - Game Over!

[Cipher]

Hi all! I gots some readin' to do.

[Cipher]

This game seems to have kind of descended into a role-off at this point.

I pretty much 100% believe that DoS is telling the truth with his claim. The only reason for scum to out themselves like would be that his buddy (Alabaska, in this case) was nailed by the real cop, and it would obviously be stupid for DoS reveal himself out of nowhere in that situation.

Based on that, either OG is lying or there's some kind of twist with the investigative roles. The flavour of OG's claim looks pretty believable to me, so I'm thinking it's probably the latter. The drinking/non-drinking thing looks more like a tool to verify whether someone is claiming their flavour truthfully, rather than a way of finding alignment directly. It's also possible that DoS is insane/paranoid/naive. I can't see that they could both be giving us accurate results on players' alignments, unless the scum have some big power that balances it out.

DoS: Despite his death, did you actually get an innocent result (or any result at all) from your investigation on PBuG?

I need to read back a bit to see who is a good lynch for today. Current thought: given that the town is in a good position numbers-wise, we could probably bear to lynch Alabaska J today to test OG's result, then look at OG and DoS's results tomorrow and try to figure things out from there.

[Cipher]

I pretty much 100% believe that DoS is telling the truth with his claim.
The only reason for scum to out themselves like would be that his buddy (Alabaska, in this case) was nailed by the real cop, and it would obviously be stupid for DoS reveal himself out of nowhere in that situation.....

Based on that, either OG is lying or there's some kind of twist with the investigative roles. The flavour of OG's claim looks pretty believable to me, so I'm thinking it's probably the latter. The drinking/non-drinking thing looks more like a tool to verify whether someone is claiming their flavour truthfully, rather than a way of finding alignment directly. It's also possible that DoS is insane/paranoid/naive. I can't see that they could both be giving us accurate results on players' alignments, unless the scum have some big power that balances it out.

so you're saying you think they both have investigative (cop) roles? or that they have twisted informational roles?

I don't think they're both "true" cops. If DoS is a sane cop then OG could be investigating for flavour-based information that isn't directly related to alignment. If OG is (effectively) a sane cop who happens to get flavour-based results then DoS could be non-sane. Alternatively, they could both have "twisted" roles. Finally, one or both of them could be lying about their role. I'm not sure at this point which is most likely - it really depends on what other roles are in the game.

Here is the problem with the end of the day that I missed because I was extremely busy. My role name actually is COP....
I feel like I should full claim since I'm counter claiming. I am Chris Onstead. The guy who created Achewood. I just want to find and root out the mafia infesting my masterpiece.

i'm cornelius the bartender, my role is basically cop, every night i get to see if someone is a drinker there or not. maybe now some of you will be forced to look at more than one player this entire game.

my problem with that is they're both saying they're cops. DoS has role claimed chris onstead COP, and OG has role claimed cornelius, COP and called herself cop throughout. if she thought she was some other kind of info role i don't think she'd call herself "cop", and ditto with DoS.
also, it seems funny for them both to be there because flavor-wise they aren't really roles that could "go together". cornelius is a character in the comic, and chris onstead-- isnt.

I read OG's "cop" claim as being based on her assumption of what her investigative ability meant. I suspect that she saw that she had an investigative role and immediately thought "cop", without considering that she might be investigating for something else. It probably helps that I came into the game late and read the more recent posts before I saw OG's claim, as I didn't have her set in my head as "the cop" when I saw DoS' claim.

Your point about the flavour is interesting - I'm not at all familiar with the subject matter myself so I hadn't really considered it. I'll read the Wikipedia article when I get a moment and then see what I think.

I need to read back a bit to see who is a good lynch for today. Current thought: given that the town is in a good position numbers-wise, we could probably bear to lynch Alabaska J today to test OG's result, then look at OG and DoS's results tomorrow and try to figure things out from there.

i don't think there could be two cops in this game. maybe two informational roles, but these two have claimed "cop". maybe it's more overanalysis on my part, but it doesn't seem right.
IMO, alabaska is the best lynch today, and depending on the results, we can go after DoS or OG the next day. i feel one of them must be lying.

I'm not so sure about one of them lying at this point, but I'm pretty sure that at least one of them has made an incorrect assumption. We'll most likely know more once we go through another night - hopefully they'll both manage to pick someone who doesn't die.

[Cipher]

Yep, that's me up there. Sorry for the mis-post.

[Cipher]

I'm up for a mass drinking claim if the rest of the town agrees.

Pretty sure either Alabaska or OG has to be lying at this point, given that OG's claimed result contradicts Alabaska's drinking claim.

[Cipher]

Dont ignore us, OG.
You assumed you were the cop, right?

yeah and i still think thats what i am

but even if i'm not, alabaksa is lying now so hes scum whether i'm cop or not, since i def got that he doesnt drink

If you're the cop then Populartajo just admitted to being scum. That seems unlikely to me.

Might as well put it out there: I don't drink either. Hence, I don't believe that drinking/not drinking is a reliable indicator of scum. I strongly suspect that what OG has is, at best, a flavour verification ability.

Thinking about this further, I can't really see any reason that Alabaska would fake being a drinker under these circumstances, even if he were scum. The best way to resolve this might be to lynch elsewhere and let DoS investigate either Alabaska or OG tonight to see what he gets.

[Cipher]

I mean I don't drink. My PM specifies this, but not in such a way as to lead me to think it's somehow important.

[Cipher]

Yes, my PM specifically says that I don't drink.

It seems pretty likely that Musher's PM has something about drinking in it as well, based on post 306. I guess it's not explicitly stated for everyone, though.

[Cipher]

To be clear: in my PM drinking is mentioned in the context of describing my character's personality, and not in such a way that I would have suspected it had special meaning if not for OG's claim.

[Cipher]

We're pulling in way too many different directions here. When I get a minute I'll try my best to sort through the available information and present a summary of what I believe are the facts, and see if we can at least get agreement on those.

[Cipher]

Ok, CipherFacts! I'm hoping we can at least get agreement on these as a starting point, and then go from there. For the purposes of the first part, I'm assuming that everyone is telling the truth in their claims - I'll address who may or may not be lying at the end.

Roles

OG has an investigative role which tells her whether a player drinks.

DoS is a cop - his result is in the form of the player's alignment. His sanity is thus far unproven, but his innocent result on PBuG shows that he is either sane or naive.

Drinking

OG's result indicates that Alabaska doesn't drink.

Alabaska's PM states that he drinks.

populartajo doesn't drink. 323 implies that this is not in his PM.

My PM states that I don't drink.

lulu's PM doesn't specify whether she drinks, but she believes that she does.

mustafa15 drinks. 340 says that this is implied in his PM.

Greasy Spot's PM doesn't state whether he drinks, but 334 implies that he does.

DoS clearly doesn't drink at the bar, since he's not actually in the comic. 347 confirms that his PM doesn't mention drinking.

Musher believes that information on drinking is in the town PM, but hasn't said whether he drinks or not.

Conclusions

Drinking is not indicative of alignment, unless a number of the scum just voluntarily outed themselves.

Barring outside interference, one of Alabaska and OG is probably lying. The only other reasonable explanation that I can see is the existence of a role that switches night actions around (e.g. bus driver).

OG is probably sane, unless NabNab is a complete bastard.

DoS will be proven sane if he gets a guilty result on anyone at all.

[Cipher]

Ok, I'm boiling this down to a choice of whether to lynch Alabaska or let him through to tomorrow:

1. If we lynch him and he's town then we're down a pro-town player. The fact that almost everyone is suspicious of him at this point mitigates this somewhat. We don't get any additional information on our claimed power roles.

2. If we lynch him and he's scum then we're down two scum and looking strong. Again, this doesn't help us figure anything out regarding our claimed power roles.

3. If we let him live and he's town then DoS can investigate him tonight and will doubtless get an innocent result. I guess this leaves us in pretty much the same position tomorrow.

4. If we let him live and he's scum then DoS can investigate him and may get either an innocent or guilty result. If he gets an innocent then we're back in the same situation again tomorrow. If he gets a guilty then we have a certified sane cop and we lynch Alabaska tomorrow.

The other thing to consider is that DoS may get killed tonight, which would mean that we get no result at all tomorrow. Looking at it broken down like this, I can't see a good argument in favour of letting Alabaska live, since the worst case scenario doesn't leave us that much worse off than we are now (minus one pro-town player). The best case from letting him live (as scum) is very good, but there are enough variables in play that I don't think the odds of that situation occurring are high enough to justify the risk of lynching someone else and finding ourselves right back where we started tomorrow.

Vote: Alabaska J

OG's claim is basically an irrelevance at this point. Unless Alabaska comes up as a drinker I'm pretty much going to assume that she's telling the truth, but that her results are meaningless.

[Cipher]

Ah yup - missed that post. Doesn't change the result, though.

[Cipher]

Sweet.