Mini 612 Akatsuki: The End

[andersonw]

Wait, so was MoS killed night 0 or something?

Vote: DrippingGoofball

because I feel like it (and I can't think of a better, more funny reason).

[andersonw]

What's Naruto?

jk

We have 12 people so, 4 groups of 3, 3 groups of 4, 3 groups of 2 plus 6 regular members?

I doubt that we would have 4 groups of 3 or 3 groups of 4 because then it's not mafia anymore (uniformed majority vs. informed minority) so I agree with SleepyPanda that it's just two groups.

[andersonw]

I think the answer to that is also on page 1:

2.c)

Some of you

have alerts. Before an akatsuki meeting begins, you will PM me your alerts in the following format:

He implied that not everyone has alerts, so that means not everyone can block.
So I'm guessing that most likely, all or almost all of the scum have alerts, and there are at least 1 townspersons with no alerts.

@Claus: could you explain why guessing the setup day 1 is bad? I've been thinking about it and I can't seem to figure it out.

[andersonw]

EBWOP: Whoops, just noticed that sleepypanda already posted that in 82.

Addendum:

Scum know each other. Therefore they need not worry about putting an alert against there scum buddy. The rest of us don't have that knoweledge and would have picked someone just at random for what ever reason we could think of.

But couldn't they just lie about their alerts anyways? I don't think there is anything useful about everyone claiming who their alerts are.

Moving on. I thought it might have been a good idea, but I forgot about this myself.

ABR just implied that scum do have alerts, so this is not the case, although the whole point is moot because of the fact that scum could lie.

[andersonw]

Also I don't think alerts should be discussed unless you are desperate (about to get the chop etc.)

Honestly, I don't see how discussing alerts could ever do much other than paint a huge target on someone's back.

QFT
And also, if you are about to be assassinated, there's no point in saying who your alerts are, since a) You don't know who has the kill, and b) Other people could think that you are lying about your alerts.
But if you happen to place an alert on the person who has a kill, I'm not sure what would happen if you tell the town truthfully about that.

Setup discussion is bad because it detracts from scumhunting. Scum can discuss the setup just as well as town, without leaving out the necessary clues we need to hunt them down.

A certain ammount of setup discussion, of course, is necessary - but speculation about the number and groups of scum like batt did on page 2 at this stage of the game is empty discussion.

Ah, thanks. I'll try to find that thread.

[andersonw]

Actually, I don't think farside is scummy because of that, because although her plan was based on bad logic, it still seemed genuine to me, and that she really wanted to scumhunt. I mean, she's still trying to explain her idea, instead of giving it up, which would make her look better.
Although, I doubt that anything will change between now and the next 2 days.

[andersonw]

Woah, I have finals for a day, check on, and 2 more people have already been killed?! I thought that it was obvious we should wait until the day before the deadline to assassinate someone. First of all,

Ass.: Claus

Ashmite killing DGB without any reasoning or questioning was a mistake he has paid dearly for.

Well, technically, he did give reasoning in 149, but yeah, it was a pretty bad move. Even if you were going to assassinate him, though, we could have waited until closer to the deadline to get more discussion in. I would also say this to ashmite, but I can't.

I'm on the fence between voting Claus and Battousai. I think it's entirely possible that both of them are scum. The interaction between them seems to me like they're just trying to distance themselves from each other.

I agree with this, although I think Claus is more suspicious right now, since Battousai seems acting more like in farside-style when he was doing his setup discussion that people are now accusing him of. It is very possible that they could be distancing, though.

Mod

: You need to edit your first post, it still says 12/12 players are alive.

thx -mod

[andersonw]

Good job, Claus

[thinking]Let's see, we have 8 people left, 1 of which is neutral/SK. Most likely, there are 3 mafia, so there are 4 town left, which means we're in ly-lo and there most likely won't be a kill, which means we have to lynch someone, but ABR's recent post implies that there still is a kill. Ugghhh...[/thinking]

Mod

: Does your last post mean that there is still a kill? Or will you not tell us?

[andersonw]

Will be V/LA from now until Sunday due to a piano competition.

[andersonw]

Okay, I'm back. First, I just want to say that we can't rule out (however unlikely) that Claus is actually part of the mafia and is looking for an excuse for executing both SleepyPanda and ashmite without much warning. A lot of people seem to believe Claus's claim, but I have a gut feeling that it might not be true (my gut feelings are normally wrong, though).

andersonw - Until Sunday due to a piano competition. Good luck!

Lol, I didn't place at all, but thanks anyways.

I've been thinking that we could do a Claus lynch (not assassination) today to make sure that he isn't lying about his alignment, and also because it will let us reset our alerts. What do other people think about that?
@Claus: Why do you think SleepyPanda asking to modkill you confirms him as scum? It doesn't seem like that to me.
Also, I'm pretty sure anybody, both mafia or town, would act like SleepyPanda did, if they didn't believe you had the assassination a third time.

Do you think I should put up a list of probable loyalist, rebels, L? I mean, I don't have a stake on this anymore, but the game is lagging in terms of contributions, so maybe it would help kick start this back into activity.

I know this isn't directed at me, but that would be nice.

@MoS: What about the "slip" you pointed out? You haven't explicitly explained it yet, unless if I missed it on the discussion on page 9.

@MafiaSSK: Could you just post some of your thoughts, please?
Also, I really don't get how a "strategy" could make the mafia seem pro-town, or whether there could be a strategy in this game at all.

Lastly, Battousai seems more town to me recently. Basically, the only scummy thing he did was setup discussion, and he has already explained that.
And if we don't do a Claus lynch, I will vote to

Assassinate:MafiaSSK

, for obvious reasons.

[andersonw]

I am absolutely 99% sure Claus is a neutral because he said things that fit the flavor perfectly. I honestly can't believe it's made up.

He, (Claus who is Zetsu) is the most loyal member, because he's the only one to know the real leader of them all, but the other members report to him. He is the only one trusted for disposing of the dead bodies of any Akatsuki member by eating them. Which yes, means Zetsu is a Ninja and a Cannibal. His ability makes sense with his personality. Zetsu being a rebel defies flavor. So, Claus being rebel is easily ruled out. Look up Zetsu and you'll find out the same things.

Ah, thanks. I did not know that.

[andersonw]

Megatron and andersonw, would you please post your Top suspects for loyalists and rebels? It would be rather helpful. I do want everyone to do it. Claus will do one soon as he said he would, and Battousai is claiming Mastermind of Sin and MafiaSSK.

Then maybe the game won't be so slow.

Okay:
btw, if you are The Jester, then you should be experienced enough not to ask about win conditions. Could I ask why you did that?

I'll post up reasons tomorrow, since I'm really tired right now, but right now, my list is

Townish
Battousai (yep, not kidding here)
GhostWriter/Tom

In the middle
L

Slightly scummish
MoS

A bit more scummish than MoS
Megatron

[andersonw]

I was in the middle of making a post when Claus suddenly attacked Battousai, so yeah, this is just getting weird. The way I feel right now can be summed up by Tom's emoticon.

Anyways, this is what I was going to post:

battousai's quick attacking of megatron is making me second guess him, which also makes me second guess my other suspicions. Also, I wouldn't trust the flavor in an ABR game, so I don't believe that it confirms battousai at all. I still think he's marginally town though.

Thoughts and replies:
I'm a bit more confident that Claus is not a rebel, because after looking through MafiaSSK's posts, in post 157, he slightly attacks Claus.

The reasons that I found battousai town was the same reason I found farside to be town (i.e. They both seemed genuine in their actions).

I don't like his position during the Farside lynch (hey, I think she might be town... but only two days...)

For anyone who accuses me of this, I believe that this was an unconventional stance, since everyone else was attacking farside for her logic, so this could be considered as "sticking my neck out". I said that nothing could change in 2 days, because it was the truth, since everyone else seemed to be attacking farside (except for ghostwriter, who was barely posting). And for everyone, if you read some of my other games where I was town or mafia, I act the same way about being conservative in my actions.

andersonw seems constructive and pro-town, but has suddenly re-ordered his suspect list almost completely, and I can't seem to find anything to point out why.

Well, technically, I never did re-order my suspect list since I will admit to not posting most of my suspicions in the first place.

My main reason for suspecting Megatron is that he just sort of went along with the flow. Post 161 especially makes me jumpy, because he already said that he's slightly leaning towards Claus being town, but also says that "this is the second time Claus has come off a bit trigger-happy...", so he's not really taking a stance on Claus, which is pretty much like what everyone is attacking me for, except his is less "explainable", for lack of a better word.

--------------

Now, I'm probably going to have to do a re-read, because Claus is confusing me greatly. By the way,

Vote: Claus

[andersonw]

Claus suddenly attacked Battousai

Not sudden. Battousai attacked Megatron without town consensus. He had to be punished. But this is a good time as ever to take a pot shot at me, no?
That's why I also included Battousai in there

because Claus is confusing me greatly. By the way,

Vote: Claus

So, you're not going to wait on Batt's cardflip before voting me? Interesting...
I'm pretty sure his last post means he's town

so he's not really taking a stance on Claus, which is pretty much like what everyone is attacking me for, except his is less "explainable", for lack of a better word.

Why is Megatron being "on the wall" less explainable than you being "on the wall"?
Because I knew that nothing could happen in 2 days, while he's saying "maybe Claus is scum, maybe he's not, I'm not sure"

[andersonw]

@andersonw: In 241 you told me you did not know about Zetsu, so why are you changing your mind?

I'm beginning to think that this flavor can't be trustworthy, as Claus assassinated 4 pro-town people, so I really think that it's possible Claus is rebel, even with MafiaSSK attacking him (I assumed MSSK was sort of inexperienced and wouldn't attack his scum partner(s), but I'm thinking I could be wrong, given how many games he's been in).


MoS: Please respond to post 311 and I will respond to your response. And also, is the only reason you are suspecting me is because I haven't posted much?

[andersonw]

What am I supposed to respond to in 311? None of it is even addressed to me...

Pretend that it's my defense and respond to it that way, I guess.

Mod:

I will be at summer camp for 2 weeks starting tomorrow, so I will need a temporary replacement, unfortunately

[andersonw]

I forgot? And I thought it started was the week after it actually started until a few days ago.

[andersonw]

Could you link to the posts where you addressed them? Looking over quickly, I can't seem to find it.

I'm not quite sure what the point of this section is. It's very unclear.

Basically, I'm saying that people are attacking me for being conservative about my feelings and such, but me saying farside was town-like was very different from the general opinion at that time.
Also, you are attacking me for saying "nothing can happen in 2 days", but that's the truth, since I doubted at that time that half of the people would go vote to assassinate someone else.

[andersonw]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 17#1127017

For the second thing (I think Claus is leaning towards neutral), you didn't respond to it, you just stated it, but whatever, I've changed my mind about that.
Also, please respond to 333.

Since the deadline is soon, I'm thinking Claus is the best lynch for now because a) He's confirmed not-town and b) He managed to hit 4 townies with the revenge shot. Assuming there are 3 mafia, the probability of hitting all 4 town at the times he used the kill, if he chose randomly, is 20/99. That's pretty low, and including the fact that Claus is experienced and has a good scumdar, would bring the probability even lower (since he would be better at finding mafia).