2078: Any Non-Dead Person Can Post In This Mafia Game [end]

[Jingle]

yeah, but you could schat recruit. Or make alts. I hear Bingle is a super popular potential username.

[Jingle]

We probably also have one of the longest scum PTs on record.

I have a 1000 post scum QT that lasted 3 years.

[Jingle]

mastina - This is mastina!Town, I think.
Jingle - Probably Town
Ausuka - Almost certainly Town
PenguinPower - IDFK. My gut says there's no scum motivation for claiming a false guilty, but there's no mechanic I know of to give false results to a tracker
Titus/pops/Tammy - Tonal Town read
Who/RC/Creature - I think this is the last scum by PoE, but more importantly, Creature going silent is telling. He's really easy to read as Town, and transparent as scum. In a hydra, I think he'd go silent on reading a scum role PM.
ofrhz - I have a broad TR on ohfrz, but it'll get sorted

Titus/Pops/Tammy and I are both mechanically town.

That leaves one scum in WhoCCreature/Sgt. Angle/Ausuka (Potentially PP even if Pine flips scum).

Ausuka Investigates WhoCCreature.
PP Investigates Ausuka.

If Ausuka lives, 1v1 with either ANGLE or WhoCCreature.
If Ausuka Dies, 1v1 with PP and PP result.

With 8 alive, this takes us to near autowin.

If PP town, PP likely dies over Ausuka.

[Jingle]

but yeah, ausuka never targets us if this flips roleblocker. ofrhz or mastina.

?

[Jingle]

I'd say that you're probably the best target if this flips non roleblocker, actually.

Ausuka-scum then has the choice of commit to roleblocker existence, soft implying you as town, or commit to a result on you, meaning she can't win via more mislynches than scum candidates.

[Jingle]

PP/Ausuka/You/Ofhrz/mastina are all potential scumspects assuming Pine scum flip.

mastina is unlikely to be scum, as is PP, but it's not impossible. So we keep playing as if we're not in autowin in case we're not in autowin.

[Jingle]

we're confirmed not roleblocker

Why?

[Jingle]

The assumption being that no one can have a multipart role, which I'm not 100% fine with assuming but is probably true regardless.

[Jingle]

I need to sit down and plot a map to victory for every potential scum slot.

[Jingle]

Yeah, but PP/Ausuka/Me/Nom is stupid amounts of town power, so I'm being cautious.

[Jingle]

95% of the time we're in the mini where we agreed Fumuki was scum and my paranoia was superfluous. The other 5% of the time is literally the only time that matters.

[Jingle]

I've come to the conclusion that the path to make RC autolose is the easiest to plan out. First we lynch RC, then if he flips town we lynch me and titus.

If he flips scum we lynch Pine and PP. Easy.


Anyway, back to legitimately thinking about the game.

[Jingle]

If Pine scum nonroleblocker:

Tomorrow we have

6 alive:

Jingle
pops

RC
ofhrz
mastina
Aus
PP

If PP scum -> Aus dies, PP claims blocked. Scum is implied in mastina/PP/ofhrz with 2 remaining lynches. prove ofhrz by governing mastina, lynch mastina, lynch PP. PP loses.
-> Aus lives, Aus claims blocked, PP claims blocker 1v1 with 2 remaining lynches. PP loses
-> Aus lives, Aus claims inno on RC, lynch pool is mastina/ofhrz/Aus/PP. Next Day, Aus claims another inno/dies, PP 50/50 chance at winning. This is scum PP's only out.

If Aus scum -> PP dies, Aus claims blocked. Lynch pool is RC/Aus/mastina/ofhrz. RC implied not blocker. test ofhrz govern on mastina, lynch mastina. Lynch pool is RC/ofhrz/Aus, implied Aus scum via 2 confirmed roles.
-> PP lives, Aus claims blocked, PP CC's and 1v1 means town win.
-> PP lives, Aus claims result. Aus has 50/50 in LYLO. Scum Aus's only out.

If RC blocking scum -> Aus dies, PP claims blocked, RC wins.
If RC nonblocking scum -> town autowin.

If pine is non roleblocking scum, RC slot autowins as blocking scum, Aus and PP have a 1v1 in LYLO as their out, mastina, ofhrz autolose as scum.

If Pine is roleblocking scum, we should be in a better situation, considering all of the block claim scenarios are impossible.

I'm satisfied with this event chain.

[Jingle]

If Pine town:

Tomorrow, Aus probably dead.

Jingle
Pops
RC
Ofhrz
mastina
PP

PP lynched.

Jingle/pops
RC
mastina
ofhrz

4p LYLO with 1 conftown. Solve here is more difficult and PP flip is hugely relevant. No where near autowin.

Hm. We can discuss this tomorrow if needed when we have a Pine flip.

[Jingle]

Notably, PP only tiered claim.

[Jingle]

Maybe PP fakeclaim here does make sense?

[Jingle]

Pine, towncase yourself/scumcase PP.

[Jingle]

I'm legitimately considering the case where we lynch pongwin today.

[Jingle]

Oh, no, we're 100% lynching in the 1v1 today.

[Jingle]

That's a foregone conclusion. I just need to look at the potential autowins/losses if we do it in the reverse order.

It is VERY likely that town RC loses if we lynch town, Pine, fwiw, regardless of my personal reads.

[Jingle]

shouldn't be a comma between town and pine, btw.

[Jingle]

oh, governing AND blocking ofhrz wins if we lynch pine first too. And we should probably hit 1000 pages JIC if Pine flips scum and Penguin doesn't die.

[Jingle]

Lynch scum PP:

Ausuka dies (balance cleared)

Jingle
pops
Pine
RC
ofrhz
mastina

2 lynches and a confirmation of ofrhz's power, means RC and mastina probs both die.

Lynch town PP:

Pine lynch tomorrow, no additional clears either via Ausuka block or kill.

Same LYLO, same implications. ofhrz is likely the assumptive town in the LYLO, both me and pops likely dead if there's a blocker. If there isn't a blocker or scum wants to frame RC, Ausuka lives and it's a 50/50.

Eh. No real benefit to the numbers, we lynch whichever is more likely to be scum today.

[Jingle]

jingle if i were guiltied in a situation like this would you ever, EVER consider lynching the person who claimed a guilty on me? i'll answer that question no for you.
whether pine is

as good as me

is academic but he's more than capable of everything that he's done today post guilty

1: If it meaningfully increased my chances of winning, yes.

2: My reservation isn't in Pine's actions. It's in PP's.

[Jingle]

Considering I've ignored my own N1 gs guilties on people I thought were obvscum in the past, I feel fairly safe in assuring you I am more than capable of coming to that conclusion.

[Jingle]

Considering, further, that my concern here is that you're being set up as the game ending mislynch...

[Jingle]

Like.... My issue here is that Penguin's play doesn't match his claim, and Penguin's claim doesn't match the rest of the game.

[Jingle]

Only three dancing gifs does seem low given how silly this game is

I have a game-related reason to keep my gif spamming low right now.

Assuming nom follows through and shoots me, here are my reads:

Scum: Lavender, one of {Who, Eevee}*, one of the lurkers {mastina, Penguin, Titus}. SK nomnomnom.

Town: Ohfrz, Jingle, Ausuka

*Both seem a little scummy, but my gut says not together.

Almost as if I’m on v/la and have stated previously a mechanic where it is beneficial for me to limit my posting.

Almost.

Like most of your reads though (why lavender and Titus?). Saw Kison and Zoe both posted...nom lied about his role?

I'm going to need a lot more shitposting to happen here. We need to cross 200 pages before EOD plskthx.

Penguin 3rd party makes less sense than scum, tbh.

[Jingle]

can you actually read pine's posts?

Yeah, there's a reason why I'm giving serious weight to the PP/Pine scumteam world.

[Jingle]

Okay. Let's duck out of pure mechanics for a minute and see if I can make subjective reads.



Jingle/Pops

ofhrz

Ausuka
RC

mastina

Pinguin

mastina/Pine is reasonable. Mastina/PP less so. I could see RC/Pine, but I'm frankly okay with losing to that. ofrhz/Pine is ofrhz/PP has some real potential to it. Ausuka/PP leaves us with too little power, I think, assuming that RC/Titus are neutral utility balance wise. Ausuka/Pine is reasonable. RC/PP probably loses here.

So potential scumteams:

RC/PP
Mastina/Pine
ofhrz/PP
Aus/Pine
mastina/PP
Pine/PP

Eliminated from contention

RC/Pine
Aus/PP
ofhrz/Pine

I think town loses if it's ofhrz. So I'm going to stop playing around that. I don't think PP fakeclaims with a hated partner as last scum standing? That seems too risky.

[Jingle]

if pine isn't scum, why was nomnom roleblocked when she said she was shooting him

Always rb a vig claim, regardless of who they say they're going to target.

[Jingle]

Eh, I've talked myself back around to lynch Pine.

And I always overthink games like this. I just usually don't do so in the thread.

[Jingle]

115 people. 5 til hammer.

[Jingle]

Seriously, is there anyone following along who isn't a player? Is it legal for players to go on their own alts to up the count? I've probably got a few alts and hydrae I wouldn't mind using to up the count.

Nope. I have enough alts/hydrae that I would already have done so.

[Jingle]

Be the hero we don't deserve, ducky.

[Jingle]

4 moar beers! 4 moar beers!

[Jingle]

Ether, can you post with 4 hydrae/alts?

[Jingle]

If both of them earn said allegiance, will you ask your mishmash peeps for some posters? We only need 4 now.

[Jingle]

Fucking... I knew it.

Ausuka, what news?

[Jingle]

No votes until everyone checks in.

[Jingle]

Scum never have roleblock and redirection.

Scum almost never have redirection in a vig game anyway.

I should be declaring V/LA, but I'll post at least once a day, so it's not super necessary. Will catch up late tonight.

[Jingle]

We wanted to add no one.

But we needed to prove that we did the action so we picked someone who wouldn't care about taking the loss.

We're probably getting lynched after Pine.

After PP.

What if he flips green, what then? You’d be in the clear in that case?

why me fry me etc

can we lynch PP now

RC, do you have no opinion on this? Question can be answered by anyone. Jingle?

If PP green flips, game is over. RC likely town. Current lean is ausuka, no hammer before I come back please. Thank you.

[Jingle]

mastina tell me why you're town.

[Jingle]

same to ofhrz when you get a chance.

No rush, tbh, I want to think this through and give you guys my best advice before I eat the bullet.

[Jingle]

RC, please towncase every living slot when you get around to it.

[Jingle]

Ausuka, what are your reads? How strong?

[Jingle]

I also think Pengin will flip town. He claimed tracker right? So obviously Pine tried to loverize Nom. It’s only because Pine was acting so uberscummy, he tracked him in the first place.

Pine could not have visited a single player. It's an impossible result. If PP is town and telling the truth, scum has a redirector and played said redirector terribly. Teal deer: PP is scum or we have already lost this game.

[Jingle]

So I'll be in Walla Walla for 4th July. Have you been there Jingle?

I have. Used to drive through regularly for work a couple years ago. Lotsa wine, not a lot else.

[Jingle]

hello i was just reading this thread and felt the need to weigh in that you shouldn't assume town wouldn't have two of the same role and in fact should give that idea zero weight, especially in a theme game. as a mod duplicating town roles to see how the town will react is fun and valid

thank u

All of my symmetry arguments are invalid now as they were based on the idea that scum wouldn’t get two of the same role. But yes. You are correct.

[Jingle]

@ofrhz, your meta arguments for being town are having the opposite effect and read scummy to me. In contrast, Ausuka and Mastina are just making townie posts, period.

Eh. Disagree, given that I specifically asked him to towncase himself.

[Jingle]

Titus, popsofctown, and Tammy have died and were a town hydra recruiter.

PLAYERNAME

welcome to Any Non-Dead Person Can Post In This Mafia Game! you are a member of the

town

, and your role name is

town hydra recruiter

.

each night, you can target another person who is not currently a player in the game but who has posted in the game thread. you will become part of a hydra with that player. that person will not have any activity requirements, but they will be able to act on your slot's behalf. there are no restrictions on how you communicate with members of your hydra, and you will not be required to use a hydra account, though you may do so if you prefer.

you win when only members of your faction remain, or when nothing can prevent this.

Who, RadiantCowbells, Creature, and Ether are now a hydra.

While it’s certainly possible that this is a scum hydra recruiter, I don’t see why scum!hydra recruiter kills the the town hydra recruiter. It would seem like self-sabotage for RC hydra to do this.

Nah. This is probably exactly the kill scum RC makes because it’s exactly the kill scum who is not RC makes. There are reasons to think RC town. If RC is scum, frankly, we probably win this tonight.

[Jingle]

Don’t want to talk about it just yet.

[Jingle]

V/LA 2 days.

Sorry guys, I know this is inconvenient but I will be unable to use my computer and out of WiFi range, so modding only til Tues night.

[Jingle]

Whoopsie, meant to be back before the prod.

I had an adventure, and my tire exploded violently meaning I was without internet slightly longer than expected.

[Jingle]

Futile attempt to make Jingle not be tonight's nightkill even though he is totally tonight's nightkill/stabbing myself in the foot if he actually DOES live and interprets this as trying to set up a paranoia lylo mislynch of conftown:

You know better than to try.

mastina's self towncase is pretty solid, actually. She's probably the player on the site with the most respect for my game.

I want to townbin ofhrz. I really do. His rush to spampost when asked to, his claim, his singleminded dedication to actually getting people to turn his power on, all of these are things that SHOULD by all rights be NAI. His general towniness over the course of the game is fakeable. Taken as a whole? I just really want to believe.

If PP flips RB, especially RB with instawin, Ausuka is town-by-balance. Mastina-the-guaranteed lynch + vig + ic just isn't enough power to balance the existence of a roleblocker. If Ausuka is town by balance, that leaves RC as the most likely scum. That means I want Ausuka to invest RC tonight. If Ausuka says RC town, it's trustworthy. If Ausuka dies, well, fuck me sideways cause I have to think about the game more.

If PP flips doctor, RC scum.

If PP flips not roleblocker, I'm like 90% on Ausuka scum.

[Jingle]

Basically, RC is not an RB. ofhrz is not an RB. In fact, PP/Ausuka/Mastina are the only contenders left for that. An RB is semi-proven. Mastina probably shoots me days ago. ofhrz is really fucking town in my eyes. If Ausuka town, it pretty much has to be RC.

[Jingle]

oh yeah, 122 people in the thread. next number is 125 as a square.

[Jingle]

Lunch Jungle

Sorry, I don't eat before 3 PM. I'm open to dinner, a late afternoon snack, or eating horrible abominations that are foodlike in appearance in the dead of night though.

[Jingle]

jingle you're dum

Or I’m scum. \o/

[Jingle]

Everyone!!! Quick!!

What is Mastina's role? Is it confirmed?

mastina is publicly hated, which is pretty insanely negative utility for either alignment. Additionally, mastina being useless has been fairly NAI recently because RL.

More importantly, PP is caught scum, and his flip should give us real information as to the balance of the setup.

[Jingle]

Actually.

It might be [Jingle/Asuka, PenguinPower] based on wagon analysis.

Isn’t Jingle IC?

Jingle is either an IC, or Jingle hard claimed IC on D1, convinced Wagon to play along with the fakeclaim, was in a neighborhood with his own scumbuddy, and still somehow managed to be the towniest player regardless of role on D1.

If I were scum here, I'd deserve like three scummies for this game.

[Jingle]

Pedit: I was right about PenguinPower!?

Yeah, PP claimed a single target action from the flipped loverizer who has to target two people in order to act, while there is also theoretically a roleblocker. In order for PP to be town, there has to be both a roleblocker and a redirector on the scumteam.

Who is a hydra-izer who targets non players and made a good choice regardless of alignment (RC) thus is fairly unreadable from that angle. A vig shot on him failed, which is corroborated by Ausuka claiming blocked. The vig shot was publicly on Who or Pine, who since flipped town. I've explained why scum would block a vig shot on town before now though, so that's not actually damning evidence.

Ausuka is the only investigative role we have claimed, which I believe has to be town if mastina is town and scum has a roleblocker. If scum doesn't have a roleblocker and Who is town, there's no reason for the vig shot to have failed. So Ausuka may well be just town now that I think about it.

I admit my reasoning on clearing ofhrz is fairly crap, but I really don't want to worry about that at the moment and I'm honestly fine losing to him here, he's played a very good game.

[Jingle]

Not really, no. Nanc. LYLO content is super hard to read because the distinction between what town wants and what scum wants is very small. Both want to lynch that guy over there.

I'm not sure why RC needs to invite anyone, though, tbh. We already have proof he's not the roleblocker unless he can multitask.

Why is ofhrz scum?

[Jingle]

Like, as town in 4p MYLO with a conftown, you have two people that you're trying to decide which is the better possibility for you to win by lynching.

As scum in a 4p MYLO with a conftown, you have two people that you're trying to decide which is the better possibility for you to win by lynching.

As far as I'm concerned, if RC recruits anyone it'll be both because he thinks he can correctly get me to lynch correctly when I'm hard to strongarm onto lynches (which he knows, given his past frustrations with that) AND he thinks the person he's recruiting deserves the win. Or spite, but, well, I don't think he can recruit me.

[Jingle]

Our love is god.

Say hi to God

Holy shit, I just saw this. Mad props if this is actually because you got the reference.

[Jingle]

Can you give me a run down of what actions have actually happened + claimed to have happened?

D1:

Mastina becomes hated, publicly, around page 10. This is confirmed by the mod.
Wagonomics, Jingle, Eeveelution become neighborhood at 100 players ITT. Jingle claims IC at ~p70, realizes the confirmation is only in the neighborhood. Wagon confirms confirmation.
nom^3 claims 3p, retracts into vig, claims to be shooting Pine, Who, and Jingle.
Pine/ofhrz claim complicated thread specific powers without details.
Some dead guy is lynched, no one bats an eye.
Consensus obvtown: Wagon, Jingle, Mastina

N1:

Who recruits Raybells. CONFIRMED
Titus recruits pops. CONFIRMED
Scum murders my good friend Wagon. CONFIRMED
Nom^3 shoots WhoBells. CONFIRMED-ish
Ausuka cops EV. Red result. (Claimed D3 post EV flip)
mastina misunderstands mod night start PM, thinks she can submit any action, attempts to masonize EV.
Jingle softdefends EV in the neighborchat to duck a night kill.

D2:

mastina claims guilty on EV. later retracts because not actually a masonizer.
Who survives, claims not to know why, (soft evidence for RB on scumteam)
Powerlynch EV, based mostly on the wagon death and individual scumreads. Despite guilty retraction, there is no resistance to the lynch.

N3:

Nom^3 shot Lavender, who won the game for town if people who haven't existed for like a decade both posted ITT. Also, got murdered by scum.

D3:

Ausuka claims inno on pops.
Whobells tried to get Creature to trust tell for them, Creature responded with "Peace out, my boys."
Titusofctown added a Tammy.
PP claims 100 page tracker, 200 page watcher, 1000 page delayed IC with a tracked to the kill result on claimed loverizer Pine. We spam out to 200 pages.
I consider lynching PP for like 20 pages. People (RC) make me abandon my crazy, and if we lose it's all his fault because of it
ofhrz claims governor (strong gate to activation) that mirrors pine role.
We lynch Pine

N3:

Ausuka RB-d, conftown pops shot.
Ether joins theWhobellsOfHavok. This hydra is officially a clusterfuck.

D4:

[Jingle]

That Asuka claim only makes me more certain he is scum.

The dynamics around the claim are bad, sure, but do we really have what is functionally IC/Vig/guaranteed mislynch vs RB in a game designed for spamtasticspampostingfromspamville?

Seems WAY scumsided imo.

[Jingle]

Can invested nonplayers use alts and hydras to get us to 127 so we can hammer ty

Agreed. Also, sorry about the overly dramatic leadup to a semi lackluster reveal. I was hoping to make scum worried.

[Jingle]

Behind doctor, cop is perhaps the easiest role a scumbut could fake claim. 127 in what? I can help spam.

127 unique players ITT.

It's an annoying mechanic where players can't advertise that we need new people but nonplayers can. Also, nonplayers can make alts.

[Jingle]

I feel like this game would be infinitely better if we were allowed to post on alts to try and fool each other.

[Jingle]

ausuka objectively isn't

Didn't I just come to the Ausuka's town by balance decision?

Also, ofhrz is vanilla. His role mirrors Pine's too perfectly to be faked and the progression of them revealing bits makes sense. He could maybe

maybe

be scum with PP rb, but... :shrug:

[Jingle]

Also, mastina scum seems hard to balance too. Like, cop/IC/vig/viglite/even commuter seems like too much for RB/goon/suicidal scum in the same way as suicidal town/IC/vig/viglite/even commuter seems like too little for RB/goons

[Jingle]

The issue is we need to end today with a prime/square/triangular number of players to ensure town Ausuka gets shot.

[Jingle]

Hint: it is because Mastina is not telling the truth about her role.

She's publicly confirmed to be hated. Mod confirmed via votecounts.

[Jingle]

Sure, but given the hard claim that it wouldn't go away in LYLO before there was any inkling of us being pushed into a MYLO track, it balances as a confirmed lynch for that faction.

[Jingle]

Actually, I think she might be the only potential RB if PP flips something that doesn't resolve that, so...

[Jingle]

VOTE: PP

[Jingle]

Are we at the correct number still? Or did bitmap fuck it up?

[Jingle]

You know, I think Who is a very smart player.

Their smartest move was getting RC to do everything for them.

:thonk:

[Jingle]

counting is hard

ADDING UP NUMBERS IS VERY UPLIFTING!

[Jingle]

what does the number of players even do again

Makes Ausuka a cop maybe.

More to the point, gets Ausuka shot if town.

[Jingle]

Eh, if PP is 3p I have absolutely no issues with losing this game.

[Jingle]

Jingle was talking in dead thread about trying to prevent us from losing if PP flipped but he was only considering that during the day based on Roleblocker!PP

True enough. I still would almost certainly have lynched you over ofhrz there and had 100% locktowned mastina and ausuka over the night phase. Good timing on shooting me.

[Jingle]

Also, mastina scum seems hard to balance too. Like, cop/IC/vig/viglite/even commuter seems like too much for RB/goon/suicidal scum in the same way as suicidal town/IC/vig/viglite/even commuter seems like too little for RB/goons

ausuka objectively isn't

Didn't I just come to the Ausuka's town by balance decision?

Also, ofhrz is vanilla. His role mirrors Pine's too perfectly to be faked and the progression of them revealing bits makes sense. He could maybe

maybe

be scum with PP rb, but... :shrug:

My stated reads?

Ausuka town came because PP flipped Gfather, but it was pretty clear where I stood on both of them when you shot me, while I was very much not sure of your alignment.