Mini 589: SSBB Smalltown Mafia (Game Over!)

[The Fonz]

OK guys, some game theory for starters.

Firstly, it occurs to me that goborage should declare his target before night falls. This will mean that the hider essentially becomes an investigative role- if gob dies, we know the target is scum. If Gob lives, we know those two players are of the same alignment (since scum could lie about having hidden behind scum, although that risks detection by the tracker).

Gob should not be roleblocked, and dahill1 should target the same player as Gob does. Why? Because this will prevent him from killing using either method if he's mafia. Since the poison ability negates the two protective roles, which can prevent any other kill, we don't want it used just yet.

Mod: does hiding protect from poison?

PEG, myself, and James have no night action.

CKD, SSK, Lawrence, Flameaxe, AK, James and Gorrad should have free rein if they're not lynched.

I would suggest we have everyone who has a night action claim in a random order tomorrow morning. There's an argument against this- scum knowing who the protective roles are minded to target is useful to them- but see the last smalltown, where the doctor role wasn't made to claim, and performed two of the three scumkills.

I'm gonna try to get some content. The random voting stage shouldn't last more than 2-3 pages.

Mario: this role is pretty dangerous in hands of SK or mafia.

It's particularly dangerous in the hands of SK, since a mario SK can kill twice per night. In the hands of scum, though, it can't be used in conjunction with a normal kill, and shows obvious effects. Hence I'm suggesting the it be used tonight in such a way to demonstrate itself, but not kill.

Link: this role is useless for an SK. Mafia could make good use of it.

It's actually a complete liability for mafia. I'd suggest we insist on its use- even though it's actually bad play for a town player to use it in isolation, it's even worse for a scum or SK player to use.

Kirby: pretty good for both Mafia and SK.

Pikachu: very good role for Mafia, as this action would always work, except when they target the SK, but if that happens they found the SK. This role isn't that good for the SK.

Best role of all for town.

Fox: a bit dangerous in the hands of scum.

Not so much- deters nightkills. Sure, it prevents viggings, but it's one-shot, and the possibility of its use can give scum fits. This is the role which most fits the doctor paradox- keeping quiet about whether it's been used or not is clearly optimal if the role is town, but allows a lot of leeway if scum. Thoughts?

Samus: not dangerous in the hands of scum.

Yup, in fact a liability since it has to be used.

DK: useless in the hands of scum.

Unless it gets down to a two-player endgame with DK and a killing role.

IC: very handy for mafia and SK, and not very handy for town, so we might consider lynching him regardless of alignment (if we have no clue for who the scum is).

I need to think about this one.

Pit: useless for SK, a bit dangerous in the hands of mafia.

Makes no difference if SK, apart from being useful to confirm not-mafia killer. Again, a liability in the hands of scum, since one expects it to be used.

Ike: useless but dangerous in hands of SK, pretty dangerous in the hands of mafia.

My own role: effectively requires town to double-lynch if it wants to kill me. Benefits whichever side it's on, tbh.

Snake: pretty dangerous in hands of SK, and Mafia too.

Lucas: pretty dangerous in hands of Mafia, a bit less so in hands of the SK.

One doc protect, one vig, one roleblock. With both vigs, I'd advise holding onto the vigging ability for a while.

Hopes this helps. Correct me if wrong.

It's a good start, certainly.

I have a feeling that there will be many kills each night btw, seeing all those 1-shot vigs.

You mean, two? Just because vig abilities exist, doesn't require their use.

It would be more useful if it didn't only list ONE role that would be bad for mafia, and that role is useless for pretty much everyone.

Unvote, Vote: Lawrencelot

No role-based killing plskthxbai.

Role-based killing is bad, certainly, though it can be a useful tiebreak between equally scummy players. Although there are roles, chiefly, gob's, that I wouldn't lynch today short of a scum claim.

IC: very handy for mafia and SK, and not very handy for town, so we might consider lynching him regardless of alignment (if we have no clue for who the scum is).

I agree that the one-shot unkillable is helpful for Mafia and SK. However, assuming the IC are town, Mafia/SK would just leave a vote-less townie alive and in a standard lylo situation, Mafia/SK would win. 5 people, 2 mafia vs. 3 innocents, one innocent being voteless, mafia would win in that situation.

That's true. A voteless townie can give advice, but can do nothing else, whilst a non-voting scum or sk can still kill.

p.s. "going through" assholes and non con lurkers is fucking terrible. YOU LYNCH WHO THE SCUMMIEST ALWAYS.

fuck people(gorrad,AK). lynching non con lurkers and assholes isnt how you win games.... fucking a.

Would you say it's better, or worse, than lynching people for their roles? Since that's what it's being presented as the alternative to.

He's got the right idea. It just isn't aplicable with Asshat around.

Going through assholes for the sake of being assholes is not the right idea.

Ever.

Well, as far as I can see, being an asshole all the time makes you harder to read, which is antitown if not scum-favouring if it's done consistently.

p.s. "going through" assholes and non con lurkers is fucking terrible. YOU LYNCH WHO THE SCUMMIEST ALWAYS.

fuck people(gorrad,AK). lynching non con lurkers and assholes isnt how you win games.... fucking a.

QFT. Why would town ever want to lynch anyone else BUT scum? Personal dislike/hatred for someone's personality/playstyle should be left at the sign-in thread.

Unvote; Vote: AK

Again, strawman. I personally think lurkerhunting, in particular, can be a very good bridge between random and serious voting. There's a difference between personally disliking a playstyle, and thinking it's antitown, though the two often go together. For instance, I'm currently running a policy where I lynch Albert B. Rampage on sight.

p.s. "going through" assholes and non con lurkers is fucking terrible. YOU LYNCH WHO THE SCUMMIEST ALWAYS.

fuck people(gorrad,AK). lynching non con lurkers and assholes isnt how you win games.... fucking a.

QFT. Why would town ever want to lynch anyone else BUT scum? Personal dislike/hatred for someone's personality/playstyle should be left at the sign-in thread.

Unvote; Vote: AK

The logic in this is pretty obviously flawed in this game. Without night kills or lynches or anything else that could give us reliable information, day one is primarily scum trying to bandwagon anyone who points out scummy behavior, or killing lynchers. I just proposed that we get rid of those who had a scummy personality, which is a scum tell.

Well, people can often find scumtells on day one in retrospect, in terms of who was willing to vote for whom, etc. You should at least try to look for things that are scummy. And I don't see how someone's personality can be 'scummy' in terms of more likely to be done by scum, when someone's personality is pretty much the most constant thing about their play whether scum or town.

Vote: MafiaSSK,

for what looks like a 'sneaking on' vote.

[The Fonz]

Mmmm, feel that bumpy goodness.

[The Fonz]

Gob should not be roleblocked, and dahill1 should target the same player as Gob does. Why? Because this will prevent him from killing using either method if he's mafia. Since the poison ability negates the two protective roles, which can prevent any other kill, we don't want it used just yet.

also, i will agree to target whomever the town wants me to (i'm thinking possible side-vote?). however, i don't see how targetting Gob (Pikachu) would accomplish anything. wouldn't i just poison both him and whoever he hides with? sorry i don't reallly understand, can you explain this a little more please? thanks.

No, I'm not saying you should target Gob. I'm saying you should target the SAME PLAYER AS Gob. If both you and Gob target the same player, that player should be announced as growing in the morning, and Gob will either be living, if that player's town, or dead, if that player's scum. If you do, and he doesn't, then that player will wake up coughing, and we'll know Gob is scum. If someone else, or no-one, wakes up coughing, we'd know you're scum. If Gob dies, we know the target is scum, and if Gob lives and the target grows, we know that the target is town, and neither of you is the mafia killer.

Note: this relies on no-one else targetting Gob/Dahill's target.

[The Fonz]

Firstly, it occurs to me that goborage should declare his target before night falls. This will mean that the hider essentially becomes an investigative role- if gob dies, we know the target is scum. If Gob lives, we know those two players are of the same alignment (since scum could lie about having hidden behind scum, although that risks detection by the tracker).

Gob should not be roleblocked, and dahill1 should target the same player as Gob does. Why? Because this will prevent him from killing using either method if he's mafia. Since the poison ability negates the two protective roles, which can prevent any other kill, we don't want it used just yet.

I agree that my role would be best used as an investigator but I don't get the Pikachu/Mario targeting the same player idea. Wouldn't the player targeted by Mario simply die? If we don't want Mario to use his ability we can simply tell him not to. It's not like he can hide it anyways. In fact I'm leery of any vig role using their power atm.

Because if anyone else targets the same player as Mario, that player doesn't get poisoned, but grows instead.

The point of having him use his ability in a town-dictated manner is, we know it won't kill, and it'll prevent him from performing the mafia kill, plus we'll know whether he's actually done it or not, so he can't get out of it.

Me being an investigative role isn't perfect though. If Lucas is scum, he can coordinate a roleblock/NK that will kill me and make my protector look like scum. If asked he can simply say he protected someone.

Well one, that plan requires two scum to target you, with a tracker still around. Two, he can only do it once. Three, if Pikachu dies whilst hiding, the ONLY explanations are the protector being scum, or you being RBed. So if the protector comes up town, he's outed as scum.

A more likely issue, I think, is that scum are likely to kill the target if the target is town- they can't afford confirmed innocents, so I'd suggest using a less useful role as the target - me, PEG, or JTP.

[The Fonz]

Sounds good, but how can we be sure that no one else targets the same player as goborage and dahill1?

We can't. But if they promise not to, then do anyway, then they risk being caught in a lie.

I would suggest we have everyone who has a night action claim in a random order tomorrow morning. There's an argument against this- scum knowing who the protective roles are minded to target is useful to them- but see the last smalltown, where the doctor role wasn't made to claim, and performed two of the three scumkills.

Can you elaborate on that doctor scenario, because I haven't read that game. The doctor was scum and performed 2 kills? How would it have made a difference if he had to claim his target? Wouldn't he just say he targeted someone innocent who did not die?

Well, he, or should I say, I, would have risked being caught in a lie due to the number of investigative roles in the game. As it happens, the town players didn't investigate in such a way that would reveal anything, and one of the investigative roles was my scumbuddy.

I'm not sure if I'm gonna use my power right away. I mean, I could target a role that's good for town, but if that player is scum and is vigged, we lose a lot.

Right. But I think we, as a town, should insist you use it.

Fox: a bit dangerous in the hands of scum.

Samus: not dangerous in the hands of scum.

Yup, in fact a liability since it has to be used.

You mean, because we're claiming our targets? I didn't think of that. Well I think Samus-scum could just use the scum kill and claim an innocent on his scum-buddy.

Yes. Scum can claim to have targetted one another. But it creates a link between the two, and it's easily possible that it could go wrong.

Ike: useless but dangerous in hands of SK, pretty dangerous in the hands of mafia.

My own role: effectively requires town to double-lynch if it wants to kill me. Benefits whichever side it's on, tbh.

You don't need to be double-lynched. Or did I read it the wrong way?

If town chooses to lynch me, they're effectively lynching two people- me, and whoever hammers.

I have a feeling that there will be many kills each night btw, seeing all those 1-shot vigs.

You mean, two? Just because vig abilities exist, doesn't require their use.

And Mario, and Ike's counter, and the Mafia kill and the SK kill. This could result in 6 deaths in 24 game-hours, theoretically speaking. And with Pika's role, make that 7.

That's two one-shot vigs. One role that we can prove isn't used, and the usual two scumkills. Obviously, the later the better in terms of town vigs, but players have to balance that against the chance of dying themselves and never getting to use it.

[The Fonz]

OK.

But hiding behind someone DOES count as 'targetting' them with a nightaction, right?

I think we should randomise Gob's target from the following players:

Me
PEG
JTP
Anderson

Anyone disagree?

And thoughts on whether we should require Lawrence to use his power? I say yea.

[The Fonz]

My point exactly- if they kill whichever of us is chosen, then they don't kill one of the more useful town roles.

[The Fonz]

Another thought- we should probably direct AK to target gob tonight as well.

[The Fonz]

Well I think AK should target Samus or I. It's in the town's best interest to get more investigative roles.

AK should target Gob today. Why? Because if he targets scum, tonight will be the only chance AK gets to take that power.

Assuming AK is scum we should force him to use his power on pre-determined targets to a) use up his night action so he can't NK and b) to prevent him from getting a power that could be detrimental to town.

Well, his night action is one we'd expect to be used. So he has to account for it.

Whether AK is scum or town, it's in town's best interest to make him target Samus or I.

You first. Then we either find scum tonight, or get to try this trick x2 tomorrow.

I was actually thinking of taking Super Saint.

Think again, it's a passive, day ability, and therefore I don't think you

can

take it.

To those attacking AK over this: seems awfully reminiscent of Oman saying he'd use his bus driver power to steal the doc's protection and put it on himself.

VOTE: MAFIASSK

this is a good vote for now.

I approve this message.

[The Fonz]

*That oman thing i was referring to happened in heroes smalltown.

[The Fonz]

So, yeah, we're not lynching AK. Very useful role, plus opportunism on the part of his persecutors.

Join the MSSK wagon!

[The Fonz]

So, yeah, we're not lynching AK. Very useful role, plus opportunism on the part of his persecutors.

Join the MSSK wagon!

For having a bad reason to jump on a bandwagon?

No, because everyone on that bandwagon has bad reasons.

For trying to sneakily nudge the leading wagon along without adding very much.

[The Fonz]

It came later, it involved agreeing with another poster (hiding behind their argument) and added nothing of his own.

[The Fonz]

Once again, can i get a yea or nay from everyone on whether we should insist Lawrence use his power? I say yea.

[The Fonz]

If he is town, I think he has one of those powers that he shouldnt tell people today if he is going to use it tonight or not. I think it is pro-town to use it, especially if it is a role that is useful or he has a strong vibe someone is town. Tomorrow he can defend his actions (or lack there of)...but talking about it today is not good.

I really don't see the harm in making it clear he's going to use it, as long as we don't announce who he's going to use it

on

.

Once again, can i get a yea or nay from everyone on whether we should insist Lawrence use his power? I say yea.

Has this been discussed? If so can you refer me to the post? I'm a fan of people having accounted-for night actions but I don't see how we can verify that Link is doing anything.

We don't actually need to verify it. We do need the threat of verification to be there.

Who would he be assigned to protect? Do we have any confirmed town?

do you mean "justify" doing anything or "verify" doing anything?

Verify...why would I write one word when I mean another?

Because you're from Canada...

I am against telling whether I use my target or not. It's too much benefit for scum.

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is why I insist he use it. Because this is flat-out untrue.

There's very little benefit to scum to knowing lawrence is using his power, but no on whom. His argument about 'stopping a scum getting vig' is weak too, because I would sincerely hope any town vig think long and hard about when to use that power.

HOWEVER there is no way in hell, if he's scum or SK, he's going to want to use it, because it makes HIM more likely to die.

Therefore, using the power is basically neutral for town, but a bad move for scum, so should definitely be required to be exercised.

[The Fonz]

unvote

: James, that last post of yours was scummy as fuck.

It doesn't make MafiaSSK any less scummy, but does put you in a similar league.

[The Fonz]

Oh, and I'm happy to leave it at 'Lawrence should be lynched on sight if he claims not to have used his power.' We should force scum to lie.

[The Fonz]

I think the talk about what people are going to do tonight should end NOW.

but wasn't everyone going to decide who we (me and Gob) target? how else will we target the same person?

We weren't going to talk about it. We were going to randomise it amongst the non-useful roles. I'd do it immediately, but JTP is on the list of possible investigations, and we may yet lynch him.

@CKD: I've made the case for why I think we should direct Gob, dahill, and AK, and I'm sticking by it. THey definitely should not 'just target whoever they think is best' because that gives them far more leeway to get away with lying.

[The Fonz]

Right. Again, what do we get from directing him? It's like directing a doc here, bad idea!

Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong,

WRONG!
WRONG!
WRONG!

Do you think it is scummy to suggest that a doc use his ability on

someone

? Directing a doc

to a particular target

is scummy, because the scum will know who is being protected. However, it is obviously protown to insist a doctor protect SOMEBODY.

Because I don't always know who is protown. I can guess, but so can the scum. My question was, if you all force me to protect, why not choose a target for me as well? (if you say: so you can explain your actions, then why force me to protect anyway?) Scum benefits from knowing that I will use my action. So maybe it's better if town knows more. I didn't think a lot about this though.

How does scum benefit from knowing you will use your action? Please give a non-ridiculous scenario in which scum are better off knowing you're protecting someone, but not whom.

[The Fonz]

Then it feels like your trying too hard to appeal to town with the next part of your post. Then you say "Which is why I have no real problem with telling each other night actions" because you should still support Town no matter what. Even if the scum kill one townsperson it still affects the town.

I really don't understand what you're saying here.

[The Fonz]

Then it feels like your trying too hard to appeal to town with the next part of your post. Then you say "Which is why I have no real problem with telling each other night actions" because you should still support Town no matter what. Even if the scum kill one townsperson it still affects the town.

I really don't understand what you're saying here.

Sorry I was writing it quickly. Okay so I was saying that he was trying too hard to appeal to town in the sentence after the one I had already commented on. Then the next two sentences should be obvious.

Actually, it's the next two sentences that I can't fathom.

[The Fonz]

Then you are strawmanning, which in addition to the flailing around trying to find a viable counterwagon to your own, makes me feel comfortable returning you to L-1.

There was no suggestion of declaring all actions before nightfall, with the exceptions of the two players previously discussed, which is a special case (since in order to use the hider ability in an investigative manner, the town needs to know who the target is). Rather, that all who survive would declare their actions first thing in the morning. That's what JTP was saying he had no problem with, and is the position supported by the majority of players.

Vote: MafiaSSK

Also, since we have SSK at L-1, it's time to randomise the Gob/Dahill targets. Gizza second.

[The Fonz]

OK:

1. The Fonz
2. Pickemgenius
3. JamesThePhox
4. Andersonw

Original Roll String: 1d4

1 4-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

Also, going through this reminds me that anderson hasn't posted in nine days, and

needs prodding

.

[The Fonz]

Rolled a 1, so gob and dahill are to target

me

tonight.

[The Fonz]

Because the argument you're attributing to JTP isn't the argument he was forwarding.

[The Fonz]

Gimme a day or two.

With my being very likely to die overnight, I want to make sure i've said everything i can think of.

[The Fonz]

Because the argument you're attributing to JTP isn't the argument he was forwarding.

What does that mean exactly?

He was saying he was OK with everyone claiming their actions in the morning. You were trying to paint him as suggesting that everyone say in advance what they would do.

We should all note that dahill also pushed this same misrepresentation. I'm also fairly suspicious of D for voting MSSK for his AK vote, but saying he's also happy with an AK lynch.

Other thoughts: So long as we have either a living Pika (and Gob will at least live the night, since I'm town) dahill cannot kill if mafia, because the actions have set up so that he must deliver his mushroom. Likewise, so long as dahill lives, anyone with hiding ability must actually hide. IF we have two hiders tomorrow, we should direct both in the same manner as today, then give dahill the choice of which target to deliver his mushroom to, should he live.

Since I now know for sure that Gob will survive the night, I'm fairly happy to let AK use his judgement (since i know the opportunity to take the hider ability will be there tomorrow).

All of you, for the love of God, READ the rules and make sure you know exactly how everyone's role works. For example, if AK is town, and had targetted me tonight, he'd have completely wasted his ability. Make sure you think about what will make scum's life hardest.

Now, hammer away.

[The Fonz]

Actually, it's unusual to get a case this strong this quickly on a day one.

Strawmanning = good, strong, scumtell
Indifference to who gets lynched, so long as it's not you = pretty strong tell
Trying to sneak a vote onto the leading wagon without drawing attention = scumtell

[The Fonz]

Well, the only reason he gave was 'I agree, vote AK' so you couldn't have been voting him for the

reason he gave

, as it was the same as the reason everyone else gave.

You hammering, or what?

[The Fonz]

Apparently not, then.

[The Fonz]

Since this is likely to be my last post,

good luck town!

[The Fonz]

No. 1-shot vigs are a VERY likely N-1 kill in my experience, as scum want to off them before they use their ability. That you don't think that AND the scum don't think that...

Coincidence? I think NOT!

That we had two very obvious scum targets in the doc and the sole investigative role, three protections in play, both scum kills hit the obvious targets, and neither one was protected? Coincidence? I THINK NOT!

See, two can play that game.

Let me phrase this as politely as I can:

If you are town, then the one-shot vig is pretty much the worst protection choice possible.

Let us exclude me (since I told protective roles specifically that they must not target me) and Lawrencelot (since targetting him is, well, pointless. If the scum choose to NK him, his role has done its job).

That leaves

Doc
Tracker
Role Absorber
Death Stump
Hunter
one-shot vig
Poisoner

It seems to me fairly obvious that the top three stand out by miles and miles as the most useful roles, and therefore the best choices for protection. There was a reason I included the one-shot vig amongst the list of 'not very useful roles' who should be considered for Pika-ing.

The one-shot vig role is one which is much more useful to scum than town (consider a free scum NK, which could potentially give the town one less lynch before LyLo, versus a shot in the dark by a town player holding that role).

Your vote, Gorrad, is a pure omgus, and your insistence that thinking that way makes AK more likely scum is ludicrous. That was my first thought- '
That's an indefensible protection choice.'

Your insistence that 1-shot vigs are usually killed quickly also phails horribly. Do one-shot vigs normally die before claimed doctors in your experience? Seriously?

However, reflection leads me to think it's not necessarily scummy on your part. For one, if you were the scum killer, you'd have come up with a better lie imho. If you were not, then there's no reason you wouldn't target the most obvious choice that you weren't killing.

HINT: tonight is roleblock night.

On the subject of me being confirmed or not-

I'd say I am, on these grounds.

If Gob is town, he is telling the truth about targetting me.

If dahill targets me and no-one else does, this means that I would be poisoned, and Gob would be outed as scum for failing to live up to his promise. So for Gob as scum to get away with not targetting me, he'd need his buddy to target me instead. I don't think he'd gamble on someone not aligned with him targetting me when i said very specifically that no-one beyond gob and dahill should target their target.

But if he has a buddy to target me, it's obviously not me!

Tonight, we should repeat the Gob trick on either PEG or Iam. These are a couple of roles that are very valuable if we can somehow confirm them, but not if we can't, and losing them at this stage doesn't hurt much. Not going to put anderson in the running, since I think he's a viable lynch choice today.

1. PEG
2. iamausername

So, here goes:

Original Roll String: 1d2

1 2-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

[The Fonz]

dahill and Gob should target

iamausername

.

[The Fonz]

What are your thoughts on the scumminess or otherwise of other players in the game?

[The Fonz]

Yeah, to be fair, Gorrad gave a reason.

It was a crap reason.

But still.

[The Fonz]

. As for Gorrad, I agree that it wasn't the best protection choice but I can't tell yet if he was protecting the vig to benefit the mafia, or because of his personal opinion.

No please, be more wishy-washy.

Why is AK scummier than Gorrad, who obviously protected a crap role so his friends could kill the good ones?

Well, I don't think you're scummy (the manner in which SSK tried to shift suspicion onto you to save his own hide yesterday counts somewhat in your favour). But consider this: if Gorrad is scum, he is free to lie in order to make his 'protection' seem as plausible as possible, whilst still being ineffective. That he declared such an obviously stupid protection target indicates to me that there's a very good chance it was genuine.

On the other hand, we have someone who declared possibly the most obvious player who wasn't targetted.

I have a rather strong feeling that the big coincidence was Lawrence targetting me, and the scum not, after I'd insisted that no-one protect me.

[The Fonz]

I know. But it was an interesting point, and I felt I had something worthwhile to say on it, 'kay? IE, why I don't think Gorrad is that suspicious.

[The Fonz]

No, I'm not saying you should target Gob. I'm saying you should target the SAME PLAYER AS Gob. If both you and Gob target the same player, that player should be announced as growing in the morning, and Gob will either be living, if that player's town, or dead, if that player's scum. If you do, and he doesn't, then that player will wake up coughing, and we'll know Gob is scum. If someone else, or no-one, wakes up coughing, we'd know you're scum. If Gob dies, we know the target is scum, and if Gob lives and the target grows, we know that the target is town, and neither of you is the mafia killer.

Note: this relies on no-one else targetting Gob/Dahill's target.

[The Fonz]

To note, I don't really have a problem with you targetting me. The important thing was to make Gob think no-one else would be targetting me- so long as it was expected that I wouldn't be protected, the job was done, if you see what I mean.

My suspicion of you is partly from yesterday, and partly to do with the fact that there was a player who was a) the obvious protect choice in my eyes and b) the only player capable of verifying whether you did, in fact, protect or not, and he was targetted for the nightkill but not for your protection.

However, it is VERY important that no-one protect Iam tonight.

(Also, Iam, if you would happen to be the serial killer, I suggest you claim, because we have you by the balls if that is the case).

We know the following did not perform the scum kill last night:

Me
Dahill
Very likely not Gob.

We're investigating Iam.

I don't believe AK is scum, because of what happened with SSK yesterday.

So that leaves a pool of:

PEG
Anderson
Lawrence
Gorrad

As potential lynches. (Seeing this, I'm severely tempted to direct the two vig roles to crosskill).

[The Fonz]

I don't believe AK is scum, because of what happened with SSK yesterday.

Could you elaborate on this?

Sure. My suspicion was raised in the first place because of SSK's opportunistic AK wagon-hopping. Scum don't tend to opportunistically jump on one another. Also note SSK's desperate attempts late in the day to divert attention to, yes, AK.

Using the fact that you had to post because you were prodded as an excuse for not posting content is just ridiculous. You shouldn't have needed prodding, because you should be posting content already.

But if you need questions; who should we lynch today, anderson? And, more importantly, why?

Well, the fact is, I was prodded, and I had to post. There's nothing I can do right now to change it. And my "excuse" for not posting content wasn't I was prodded, but was "I didn't have anything new to discuss because I couldn't really see anything very interesting, and I'm not very good at thinking or bringing topics up. "

Which is no defence at all. There's plenty to discuss. The fact that you've started to discuss scum suspects now, after being pushed on it,

However, reflection leads me to think it's not necessarily scummy on your part. For one, if you were the scum killer, you'd have come up with a better lie imho. If you were not, then there's no reason you wouldn't target the most obvious choice that you weren't killing.

This, and everything else The Fonz said that was like this, is WIFOM (or, at least I think it is WIFOM).
[/quote]

Explain why it is wifom.

A scum has two options in front of him. One brings him under a ton of suspicion. The other looks much more defensible. Why is it ever in the scum's interests, all other things being equal, to choose the thing that makes him look more suspicious? I think either way, it points to Gorrad thinking the vig protection was the more town action.

The main way I can see him lying there is if he were planning to claim a protect on whichever obvious target his group didn't go for, but was confounded by the other scum faction hitting that protectee, and had to think quickly and came up with a bad claim.

Note also that Gorrad is the day's 'obvious' target.

[The Fonz]

I don't think we should automatically rule out dahill/goborage as suspects just because they have accounted for night actions. If they're mafia, they have a partner who could have performed the kill, and if they're SK, they could have performed the kill as well as their role-based actions.

I mean, it's very useful to have them confirming a player as town every night, certainly, but as the game goes on, it will become more and more dangerous to let them coast through on this basis as if they're confirmed town themselves.

We don't rule them out as

suspects.

We rule them out as lynches just for today. dahill could well be SK, but his action last night rules him out of being the mafia killer, and that is a fairly important point in his favour.

Likewise if Gob is scum, his potential partners are limited to those with nightactions, but which are unconfirmed. IE, it is impossible for the two of them to be scum together- because that would mean someone targetted me who claimed not to have done so, and if we then assume that player would be mafia, dahill would not be.

So Gob's potential partners would be limited to Lawrencelot, Gorrad, and AK. (We'd see the effect of a vigging).

Also note that Gob's actions are likely to kill him at some point.

[The Fonz]

Either could be SK. Of course, if Gob is the SK, he's putting himself into some fairly risky positions, because hiding behind scum will kill him, and not doing so will out him. So he has to hope that everyone he hides behind is town.

dahill being SK is the rather more worrying situation.

[The Fonz]

If they decide not to do their upmost to help the town win, there will be a reckoning. That their utility to the town in keeping one another honest makes them a bad lynch for now (plus the fact that we know at least one has to be town) doesn't mean it will last forever.

And yes, you're right. Those are only potential partners in the event of Gob being the killer.

[The Fonz]

Which is exactly why it is WIFOM, because he could be thinking something like "If I claim to have protected the 1-shot vig, then no one will think I am scum because I wouldn't have chosen to protect him if I was scum".
Also, I don't really understand what your last sentence is trying to say. Does it just mean that protecting the vig makes him look town?

No, it doesn't mean that. It's like this. 'I could choose to make a protection choice that is really odd and will bring me under a ton of scrutiny. Some people may think this is a strange choice for scum. Alternatively, I could just make a protection that makes sense, and it's a complete non-issue.'

Making that decision makes some people more suspicious of him, and some not. It doesn't make ANYONE less suspicious of him than they were before. Therefore, he's either town who thinks it was a good choice, or scum who would have though it a good choice were he town.

What I mean is this: I think protecting the one-shot vig does not make him look scummier. It does not make him town, either.

[The Fonz]

If I was scum, I'd have roleblocked Gob so Dahill would kill Fonz and the blame would fall on Gob. If for no other reason, than the fact that I did not do that should make y'all less suspicious.

I don't like this 'if i were scum, I would definitely have...'

Roleblocking Gob gets you vigged the night after, because at least one of dahill and anderson would have to be town in that scenario. Two for one may or may not be worth it, but it's not a slam dunk.

[The Fonz]

Oh, and the WIFOM-calling begins, naturally. Tell me, if you were scum, would YOU trade yourself in for two powerful roles as well as stopping anyone else from being confirmed? I sure as hell would.

Let's see.

Go to night, eleven alive, of which two scum.

Roleblock Gob, and have your buddy kill someone else. Let's assume that is CKD, which removes the possibility of you getting caught in the act straightaway (although there is still the chance of him being protected or bodyguarded).

Two town down, with one poisoned. Town lynch of Gob, assuming that nothing else points to the roleblock. So we go to the following night with four living town including a possible SK (unless Gob, me, or your target from night one is the SK).

If the SK crosskills on the night you roleblock Gob, the mafia loses there and then, with you being outed.

If the SK hits town, we know that dahill is not your buddy, since he poisoned me, so couldn't have performed the mafia kill. So it does confirm someone after a fashion.

If the SK is me, then I become poisoned, you lynch Gob as town, and it's probably marginally beneficial.

So basically:

In the case of crosskill of your buddy, loses you the game
In the case of no crosskill and neither Gob nor I being SK, then it has the mafia group going to night 5-1-2, with you guaranteed to die. You wake up either 3-1-1 or 4-1. This isn't a slamdunk.
Then there's the situation where Gob or I are. Gob likely points out that he was roleblocked if he gets lynched.
Then there's the situation where you're scum WITH GOB.

[The Fonz]

If you can't accept that it doesn't clear you to have not done something that, if you were actually scum, would have a 10% chance of losing you the game THERE and THEN, then it's not me thinking too much but you thinking too little.

[The Fonz]

What do you make of my rationale for thinking AK likely town, Gorrad?

[The Fonz]

Sure I do. In my experience, one-shot vigs die really early, and you disagree. Fonz disagrees too, and that's not precisely making me feel good about him either, but you stand out.

In my experience, doctors and investigative roles die early. You disagree, and that doesn't make me feel good about you...

seriously, the CONFIRMED TOWN disagrees with you, and that makes you suspicious of him rather than thinking you might be wrong?

[The Fonz]

I don't believe AK is scum, because of what happened with SSK yesterday.

Could you elaborate on this?

Sure. My suspicion was raised in the first place because of SSK's opportunistic AK wagon-hopping. Scum don't tend to opportunistically jump on one another. Also note SSK's desperate attempts late in the day to divert attention to, yes, AK.

[The Fonz]

Oh, and in case anyone hammers before i get on again:

Gorrad, you are roleblocking tonight. That's ROLEBLOCKING, mkay?

[The Fonz]

Your second point makes sense, actually, but the odd protection choice still only really makes sense if Gorrad thought it was a reasonable sounding protection choice.

I don't want this game to peter out, and will be hammering by the end of the weekend in the absence of any major revelations in that time. Anyone got anything important to say, hop to it.

[The Fonz]

Killing you would be a massively antitown action.

[The Fonz]

Yes, Gorrad chose a bad protection target. So did Lawrencelot. Why aren't you pushing a wagon on him, too?

I don't believe that Lawrencelot chose a bad protection target because I would have also protected The Fonz if I were him, since it was a chance for someone to be confirmed. If the mafia targeted The Fonz and he wasn't protected, then having both pikachu and mario targeting The Fonz would have been pointless.
.

Even though I said that the entire testing plan relied on no-one beyond dahill and gob targetting the selected player?

And no, it would have achieved something. It would have kept the freaking nightkills away from the doc and the investigative roles.

[The Fonz]

...Well that was one of the most scummy posts I've seen all game.

And crap. He's the hider. I CAN'T NK him ><.

No, he's the role-borrower, and he's currently our doctor.

Directing lawrence isn't actually as bad an idea as you think it is- we definitely need to avoid the protections overlapping. But, i think on balance, the consequence of that (ie- making sure that AK, at least, available for NK) outweighs the benefits.

Will hammer by end of day.

[The Fonz]

No-one ever suggested killing Gob though?

[The Fonz]

The BG role isn't really a doc. Docs are part investigative in that a successful protect results in a confirmed townie, so I agree that most of the time he should be left free to choose. BG is nowhere near as good. Even if he does successfully protect someone, town has no confirmed. .

That just isn't true in a game with an SK.

Anyhow, as promised:

Vote: andersonw

[The Fonz]

Free choice is best, since it allows us the possibility of evidence against you arising. Basically, i will be very sceptical of you if one of a couple of roles dies tonight and you don't.

And Gorrad's play is something i've seen many, many times. He does something stupid, takes umbrage to people pointing out how stupid it is, and then gets all omgussy to the extent that settling scores takes precendence over the win condition.

[The Fonz]

3 deaths
the good news is that we caught another mafia

vote iamusername

this should be pretty obvious since Gob targetted him and died
now all we need is the SK, which clears me and Fonz since both of us have been proved not to be the killer

Explain how we know Iam is mafia and not SK?

OK, it's pretty simple. Fonz is confirmed town, so no need to worry about him.

dahill posions Gorrad
Gorrad vigs Lawrencelot

If Lawrencelot is flips scum, town rejoice, game is over.
If Lawrencelot is flips town, Gorrad is poisoned and will die anyway, so lynch dahill, just in case. If Gorrad is not poisoned, lynch dahill for not following the plan.
If Lawrencelot doesn't die, lynch Gorrad for not following the plan.

Now everybody

Vote: iamausername

and get on with it.

Hang on though- I believe a death stump scum can still kill, and win. The only thing it states that a death stump cannot vote. We need gorrad to vig IAMAUSERNAME tonight!

Ok let's do it this way. I hope iama wants the town to win, rather than the mafia, but they played like crap anyway. Iamausername targets dahill. Gorrad kills iamausername. Dahill kills gorrad.

When I'm the SK, I always prefer scum wins to town wins. Same as when there's multiple scumgroups- i consider a town win the worst outcome.

We also have to hope Iam is actually SK, and not mafia.

Gorrad is almost certainly our last scum, since he's claimed something impossible.

I'm actually thinking Gorrad is the correct lynch here, since it would take an NK out of the game. Poison AND lynch Iam. I don't believe we can trust in using Gorrad's kill, as he's scum.

If we lynch Iam, Gorrad can kill two town players with his vig ability, and eliminate the town.

[The Fonz]

Wait- has someone hammered already?

WE CANNOT AFFORD TO LYNCH IAM TODAY!!!!!

[The Fonz]

Thank fuck for that. I nearly had a heart attack there.

You're right, Gorradafia can only kill once if Iam is SK.

There's actually a way for Iam to turn this into a mafia win. I'd hope he wouldn't, but I can't rule it out.

[The Fonz]

dahill is not mafia. Iam claimed SK, so he's probably SK. Thus, dahill is town. Gorrad, as a mafia, has to kill iamausername, the SK, in order to win. If he doesn't, iamausername will probably win. As long as dahill kills Gorrad and Gorrad kills iamausername, I think the town will win. Gorrad, you don't want the SK to win, do you?

The SK has to die for a mafia win, but the SK is currently not the greatest threat to the scum. The town is. If we lynch iam and poison Gorrad, Gorrad can't win, but the two scum can co-operate in killing town tonight, and lynching the surviving town player tomorrow for an SK win.

When I'm the SK, I always prefer scum wins to town wins. Same as when there's multiple scumgroups- i consider a town win the worst outcome.

Why's that? When I'm the SK and I have a choice, I let those win who deserve to. There's no point in letting the scum win, town win is no worse outcome than scum win when you're SK. And in this game, the scum sucked, I'd eat my hat if they win this game.

Honour amongst thieves.

[The Fonz]

If IAAUN CAN still kill, a thought that honestly didn't occur to me when I voted, then I'll kill him and we have to hope that he and Lawrence target the same person with their kills. If they don't, we lose.

Wait. Huh.

Mod:

If ice climbers are death stumped, anti-town and alive with one other person (pro-town), do they win?

I presume they lose, since a majority of available votes is there to lynch them.

[The Fonz]

Mod: If ice climbers are death stumped, anti-town and alive with one other person (pro-town), do they win?

Yes.

That contradicts their win condition.

[The Fonz]

OIC. Still contradicts win condition, mind.

[The Fonz]

Uh, yeah. The town lost without ever mislynching.

[The Fonz]

One question.

I assumed Gorrad was mafia when he was caught in a lie regarding RBing IAAUN, because the way things worked out, that can't have been possible. So what happened?

[The Fonz]

No, that's not possible. AK can't have shot PEG.

[row color=black]

Kirby

role absorber

[row]You’re

Kirby

! You made your debut in

Kirby’s Dream Land

, and in this game, you’re a

Role Absorber

. At night, you can choose to absorb the role of another player, and then you’ll be able to use it yourself the following night! Once you’ve used this role, it has taken effect, or one night has passed, you can’t use it again. Also, you can only have one role absorbed at a time, and you can’t use a power and absorb a role on the same night.

AK cannot use a power and absorb on the same night. He absorbed the doc power night one, so he would have had the choice of using the doc power night two, or absorbing (but not using) another power. His role specifically states that absorbed powers can be used the FOLLOWING night.

[The Fonz]

That's true. But you have to assume town tells the truth.

Also:

, and Anatole was unlucky in absorbing and misfiring a vig just before he died.

Actually, regardless of anything else, that wasn't unlucky, it was an horrifically bad choice on the part of AK. If he does nothing that night, town wins easily.

[The Fonz]

Your weaseliness about using your power was incredibly scummy. I had you down as scum throughout (until Gorrad appeared to have been caught in a lie, at least).

[The Fonz]

Oh, man.

That cost town the game.

[The Fonz]

As a side note, XD, I think a game with the potential for five killing roles (mafia, sk, one-shot vig, JOAT, and a role absorber which could take on the one shot vig's role) PLUS a hider which died if hiding behind scum, you were always going to get a swingy game.

[The Fonz]

Well, it did have effect. There were three deaths because a townie lied and misvigged.