mini 2140: partition (this is over)

[enomis]

Hey Guys.

VOTE: Adorable

I wanna lynch group 1. I think scum may have placed 2 scums in there. Think it's a good bet.

[enomis]

I think our biggest disadvantage is a lack of ability to pressure other players since it's diffused across the groups, and thus a lack of scum hunting.

I think sorting the players

in

the groups should be priority as normal, and inorder to do that we need a way to apply pressure to individuals. So what do you guys think of lynching groups based on a pseudo lynching individuals?

We can use hurt tags and use them to maintain our own vote count. Then when a

player

gets a majority, we lynch that group. If the player is in group 1, we reset the count and begin again. If yet another player from group 1 gets majority, we lynch that group.

Otherwise I think discussion is likely to be limited to speculating about where scum placed themselves and going around the wine/yomi cycle

@Kanna same, I initially joined because Clidd came out of his newbie game hiding hole, and was excited to see you and dsj signed up! It feels like a conspiracy.

I think this is too complicated tbh. I am thinking if we should just play the game as normal.

Also, why does group 1 get an advantage by needed to be voted twice. Because there is a chance we lose the game straightaway?

[enomis]

What do you mean by play normal?

I meant scum hunt normally. And come to a consensus about groups late in the day based on who you scumread.

[enomis]

Anyway, now that I think about it, are we straight into MYLO even if 2 scums is in group one?
Because 5 people will be left and one will be night killed. So there will only be 4 left.

[enomis]

VOTE: group 3

You are voting your own group?

[enomis]

Anyway for the theory crafting, I don't think Mafia will go 1,1,1.
It sounds like a stupid strategy. No matter what you do,
your go from 3/13 (23%) to 2/10(20%) or 2/11(18%). You are literally decreasing your win rate yourself.

And if we lynch group 1 and manage to lynch 2 scum, our win rate goes from 23% to 33%.
So if just looking at ev, I think lynching group one is positive ev play.

I think this should be right but i seldom to theory craft on mafiascum.

[enomis]

Your point is contradictory though. If lynching group 1 has the highest EV, then distributing scum 1:1:1 is the ideal strategy as it has the highest probability of a Day 1 win.

This is going into WIFOM territory where I am just discussing on paper, the best play.

Furthermore they only distribute 1:1:1 if they think the same way as me AND believe town is ballsy enough to lynch group 1.

I don't think scum will fulfill both requirements.


----------------
pedit - What is binning?

[enomis]

Oh right. Ok nvm, I made a mistake in the calculation. I was thinking both numbers from scum pov.

Anyway, this makes me abit demoralized. If either group 2 or 3 have to get kicked.

[enomis]

Yeah, voting yourself shouldn't really be much of a problem here, no?

Do you not want to play the game beyond day 1?

[enomis]

VOTE: group 3

You are voting your own group?

What's wrong with that?

I want to be here on day 2.

[enomis]

Shouldn't you be more concerned with lynching scum than being alive on day 2

I have no other play. I can't lynch group 1. I don't want to lynch myself. So I can only find from group 2. Quite demotivated tbh. This isn't what i expected when i came into this game.

[enomis]

@enomis and @mohab: Do you have the tendency to be lynchbait in other games? Be honest.

This is addressed to me? How am I being lynchbait this game?

[enomis]

You absolutely can lynch group 1 if you find enough people from there acting scummy. Why are you ruling the play out completely?

based on what people have posted.

[enomis]

Heya Guys.

[enomis]

Fair point, but see 81, Doro.

You find anyone scummy so far? I'm pretty sure clidd and Ame are conspiring in the other corner.

Think I saw someone slip but I'll have to get back to you on that one.

If you are talking about my post where i am calculating the win rate and calculated for scum win rate instead of town. It was because I was too immerse in my calculations.

Other than that, think what you will if you are referring to my post.

[enomis]

What do you mean by play normal?

I meant scum hunt normally. And come to a consensus about groups late in the day based on who you scumread.

I officially backtrack this stance.
anyway, I think d&d and mohab is town.

And also, I don't really think I am lynchbait. Don't think I get lynched much and I haven't been at this site for 3 years, so don't think anyone meta'ed me.

[enomis]

Anyway, the fact that there hasn't been a quick hammer on group 1 means

1) At least 2 scum are in group 1
OR
2) 2 scums are already voting, thus scum cannot quick hammer to win. (But this is not possible because only ABR is voting group 1)

Thus, 2 Scums is at least in group 1.

VOTE: group 1

[enomis]

I meant only ABR is in group 2/3 who is voting group 1.

[enomis]

Trust me, voting group 1 offers our easiest chance to win this and go home.

who do you think is the 3rd scum if there is only 2 scum in group 1.

[enomis]

Trust me, voting group 1 offers our easiest chance to win this and go home.

who do you think is the 3rd scum if there is only 2 scum in group 1.

I think it is mohab.

I think he is town though. Well, we can leave this to day 2 if we are still alive then and we manage to lynch group 1.

I hope we win straight away though.

[enomis]

[enomis]

Good Job ABR!

I most probably would have lost us the game if I am kept alive because I had a hard townread on clidd based on him joining a new game after we got trolled that we lost the game post-hammer day 1.