Mini Theme 2172: Great Idea Mafia - Game Over

[NoPowerOverMe]

I claim town gravedigger. It's like miller except for watchers and trackers instead of cops.

VOTE: Herta

[NoPowerOverMe]

#57 on the great idea role list.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Echo has a history of getting lynched day 1. I wouldn't recommend it.

[NoPowerOverMe]

VOTE: Noaa

[NoPowerOverMe]

VOTE: Noraa

[NoPowerOverMe]

Also, you really think I went to the wiki, found the gravedigger role, figured out what it was, and decided to claim negative utility? I didn't even know the role before I got my pm and I doubt most people do.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Supposedly.

We don't know that there is more than one eligible NK though.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Mafia kills player A. Serial Killer kills player B. I show up on guilty to watchers and trackers on both.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Trackers or watchers yes.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Yes one tracker should get two kill results now that I think about it.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Wait no. The watcher has to watch the person being killed. Tracker could get two results though if I am thinking about it correctly.

[NoPowerOverMe]

The roled are random so a vanilla majority is not guaranteed.

[NoPowerOverMe]

12/87 chance of VT if town.

[NoPowerOverMe]

It's public knowledge so it's not a scumtell. And I was asked.

[NoPowerOverMe]

No joke

[NoPowerOverMe]

npom who’s scum

It's the beginning of day one how would I know?

[NoPowerOverMe]

If shelly says you are scum 53 times than you are town.

[NoPowerOverMe]

and she is scum.

[NoPowerOverMe]

VOTE: Herta

Who am I to argue?

[NoPowerOverMe]

E-2

[NoPowerOverMe]

Woman power unite!

[NoPowerOverMe]

I'm seeing a lot of overreactions so far.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I see good things about both, you and red seem pretty town on Herta, and I like Titus and Echo on Iconeum. I'm currently on Herta because all else being equal I believe pressure is a good thing.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Mafia isn't about being nice it's about finding scum.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Mafia isn't about being nice it's about finding scum.

my point was not "be nice you assholes"
my point was moreso implying that shelly was purposefully picking on a newbie bc setting those up as limbait is generally very easy.

Maybe but newb can be scum too and they may have experience on other sites or it could be an alt.

[NoPowerOverMe]

VOTE: Rannygazoo

I policy elim anyone who suggests policy elims. It's just bad play.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Good defense.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Why would you feel bad about voting a scumread?

[NoPowerOverMe]

She got elimed as scum in the game I played with her

[NoPowerOverMe]

What fluff

[NoPowerOverMe]

I've been accused of having short posts but I think that's a good thing and not a bad thing.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I don't shit around.

[NoPowerOverMe]

In my opinion people aren't as likely to read a long post and it's harder to figure out what your intention is sometimes.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Scum always think I'm tiresome and town to love me LOL.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I think there’s a tendency to believe among newer mafia players and maybe the population in general that the truth will prevail and everything will be okay if I have right on my side, but boy is that not true, as I keep learning the hard way.

I don't think that's the prevailing thought at all.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Ranny is still a good wagon.

[NoPowerOverMe]

How is Titus lock town?

[NoPowerOverMe]

"if we think he's scummy we elim."

Don't go out on a limb there, dude.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Maybe in a little bit.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I'm just a cool dude in general.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I want someone to explain how fakeclaiming gravedigger is even remotely probable. If I am scum it is because I am a scum gravedigger(I haven't checked to make sure there is a scum gravedigger role but someone said there is, I think somewhere.) But other than that I am nearly locktown.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Evidently there is a werewolf gravedigger role but I only have a 2/146(1.3%) of rolling a gravedigger role and 0.7% chance of rolling a scum gravedigger role.

[NoPowerOverMe]

It's day 1. Who has an awesome ISO at this point?

[NoPowerOverMe]

I'm LHF, of course.

[NoPowerOverMe]

There's a reason for that. Is it better to focus on setup WIFOM or actual scumhunting?

[NoPowerOverMe]

You're not exactly confirmed town, Ranny.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I frankly don't care if you like my posts.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Read lists on day one are dumb anyway. There's no way to have strong reads this early.

[NoPowerOverMe]

No. You can still have opinions.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Never played great idea before nor have I been a gravedigger.

[NoPowerOverMe]

My claim is not protecting me. It's not my fault I'm a gravedigger.

[NoPowerOverMe]

It's site meta. Also a good idea to protect town from bad things happening.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Noraa and Titus are my strongest town reads.

Ranny and echo are my strongest scum reads.

[NoPowerOverMe]

EchoVision

[NoPowerOverMe]

Because he felt bad about voting his scumread.

[NoPowerOverMe]

It's not silly for day 1.

It's like someone landing on your property in monopoly and feeling bad about taking their money.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Anything that's not vanilla is technically a power role.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I'd rather see someone defend someone on something "useless" than have someone be policy elimed because they're "useless".

[NoPowerOverMe]

Town gravedigger!

[NoPowerOverMe]

No. Scum team is 3 prs. There is zero way town doesn't have strong roles.

Actually since it's random this isn't true

[NoPowerOverMe]

Sheeping is bad if it's all you do.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I might have missed that, explain please?

[NoPowerOverMe]

Ok I'll look over the thread in a bit.

unvote

[NoPowerOverMe]

VOTE: Herta

[NoPowerOverMe]

A day one no elimination isn't the worst thing in the world.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Well I don't like the leading wagons.

[NoPowerOverMe]

No elim is really bad I think

Extremely bad. Lynch a vt over no elim.

Both sober and drunk Titus agree

P.s. this is drunk!Titus posting

Not if we elim town.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Eh, why not.

I admit I was wrong yesterday.

VOTE: plusJOYED

[NoPowerOverMe]

I've skimmed the end of D1 and I'm not sure if there was a case against Ital or it was just luck

[NoPowerOverMe]

What are you "not feeling" about? Do you only get excited about power roles?

[NoPowerOverMe]

Plus is not presenting a very good case against him.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Could Italian/PlusJoy/Echo/Shelly be the solve?

[NoPowerOverMe]

Are they still replacing the shelly slot?

[NoPowerOverMe]

It was an honest question. I ISO'd shelly and saw her replacement request but I don't see any replacement on the OP.

[NoPowerOverMe]

The actual player base is not consistant with the OP I don't see how that's a scumtell for asking about it.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Living in a Brainstorm
Rannygazoo*
Herta
redcardinal
iamausername
Primate*
PlusJOYED Wiyvern arachnidsGrip
Iconeum*
MURDERCAT Assemblerotws
NoPowerOverMe
EchoVision

Drank Too Much of the Kool-Aid
ItalianoVD shellyc - Eliminated Day 1 - Mafia Goon
Titus - Killed Night 1 - Vanilla Townie
Noraa - Killed Night 1 - Vanilla Townie


Shelly started the game as a player. She is not listed anywhere now.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Oh, Italiano replaced shelly. Sorry for the oversight.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I give a s*** I went to win as much as any other game.

[NoPowerOverMe]

let's go ahead and eliminate.

[NoPowerOverMe]

why?

[NoPowerOverMe]

Yep scumreading plus is so anti town!

[NoPowerOverMe]

What the f*** red I thought we were friends I am so offended LOL

[NoPowerOverMe]

I mean Ranny's association comment makes no sense.

[NoPowerOverMe]

@Iconeum I was talking about Ranny not me, so what does your comment have to say about ranny?

I was actually widely town read in the game I played with you iirc until the scum team imploded at the end of the game, so I must have made some sense.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Why is red pinging?

[NoPowerOverMe]

I forgot that italian replaced shelly. That leaves Plus and Echo left from than group that could be non-town. But obviously, since this is great idea we have no idea how many non town there actually are. It was just speculation.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I would have gotten away with it too if it wasn't for you rotten kids!

I'm not sure what that has to do about this game though.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I don't buy ATE. Not playing to win is scummy and against your win condition.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Most likely scenario is plus is scum pissed about italiano being elimmed.

[NoPowerOverMe]

We don't know what alignment plus is but it's still the best elim.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Already claimed town gravedigger

[NoPowerOverMe]

I think we should keep Private alive provided he votes with the leading wagon. I don't think we can afford to waste an elim on a survivor.

[NoPowerOverMe]

On the other hand that puts town in a greatly advantagous position if there are no more than 3 scum.

[NoPowerOverMe]

The only problem with keeping a survivor alive is if they get to ELLO we cant enforce any agreement we have.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Fuck it.

VOTE: Primate

I hate wasting an elim here but we can't really get around it looking long term.

[NoPowerOverMe]

And what if we accidently elim town and then the survivor is still alive D4?

[NoPowerOverMe]

Better to elim survivor today and get more info for tomorrow.

[NoPowerOverMe]

It gives us info because we can get N3 night actions and make a better decision for D4 and we only lose a 3P D3 rather than possible town.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I'd rather wait to mass claim until tomorrow.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Less likely to lose a PR tonight.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Share your info. I don't think massclaim should be mandatory today.

[NoPowerOverMe]

That could be construed as scummy.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I protest the massclaim I don't think two players make a majority.

[NoPowerOverMe]

We don't want to massclaim because we are in a good position and we can go into d4 with a certainty of not losing another townie. Makes no sense logically.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Also having a survivor in ello is not something you want for sure.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Iconeum is basically VT/Goon the odds of a SK are probably low.

[NoPowerOverMe]

2.7% chance of drawing SK card.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Aren't there other slots that kill?

[NoPowerOverMe]

Aren't Mafia and Werewolf different scum factions with seperate kills?

[NoPowerOverMe]

Werewolf
Werewolf
Werewolf
Werewolf
Alpha Werewolf
Werewolf Roleblocker
Werewolf One-shot Bulletproof
Werewolf Cop
Werewolf Mason
Werewolf Watcher
Werewolf FBI Agent
Ninja Werewolf
Werewolf One-shot PGO
Werewolf Miller (investigates as Mafia)
Werewolf Supersaint
Werewolf Godfather (essentially a named werewolf)
Werewolf Gravedigger
Wereparrot

Serial Killer (Two-shot Bulletproof)
Serial Killer (Immune to Mafia kills)
Serial Killer (Immune to Werewolf kills)
Serial Killer (Immune to Alien & Replicant kills)

About four times as likely the kill is coming from werewolf than SK from my math.

[NoPowerOverMe]

My point is retired marine is a pretty safe fakeclaim.

[NoPowerOverMe]

@ico:The point is trying to getbconftown or confscum. Nothing personal.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Can we get a list of a claims/NA

[NoPowerOverMe]

all

[NoPowerOverMe]

Fine,

VOTE: Herta

[NoPowerOverMe]

I don't pair with murderers

[NoPowerOverMe]

I already said that we don't want the survivor in ello and that's why we should elim him today.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Even if it give scum an extra nightkill it's worth it in the long run.

[NoPowerOverMe]

There's a chance he's a serial killer it's an extra bonus.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Because he's not trustworthy

[NoPowerOverMe]

He could vote with mafia in ello.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Why not kill herta tomorrow. Can risk having a known third party alive.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Cant

[NoPowerOverMe]

The risk is keeping non town alive you cannot trust their vote.

[NoPowerOverMe]

The problem is if you don't then when do you off them? And if they vote against you in ELLO at that point you're just stuck with your tail between your legs.

[NoPowerOverMe]

"exists a path"? That's supposed to be convincing?

[NoPowerOverMe]

We eliminated scum night 1, which rarely happens. It's not a shitty situation. You do what gives you the best chance to win. Do you want to put your fate in the hands of the survivor? I sure don't.

The fact that Primate said that raising these questions is "lazy" just proves the point that he's not pro town at heart.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Keeping a survivor alive and hoping he votes with us is better?

Maybe it's not favorable but it's more favorable than if we'd hit scum N1.

[NoPowerOverMe]

hadn't hit scum rather.

[NoPowerOverMe]

If there is a mafia and werewolf and a survivor faction we are fucked anyways unless they kill each other off.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Anyone who's not town is the enemy because they have no motive to vote with town.

[NoPowerOverMe]

However unlikely it might be, I'd rather win or lose by our fates than to put it in the hands of the enemy.

[NoPowerOverMe]

What are we waiting for?

[NoPowerOverMe]

Sings karyoke

[NoPowerOverMe]

@echo why are u a nk target?

[NoPowerOverMe]

Nm Wasn't paying attention.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I concur

[NoPowerOverMe]

The standard (and only Normal) version of a Doctor cannot target themself

[NoPowerOverMe]

So are you lying or are you not actually a doctor.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Ok

[NoPowerOverMe]

Which card number are you

[NoPowerOverMe]

That would mean one of me echo and murder cat is not town.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I would say username or primate is the best elimination here.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Probably username since he most likely has a gun.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I don't see us lynching cat or echo in primate claim survivor poe.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I'm willing to assume a 4:1 scenario for now until I am proven otherwise

[NoPowerOverMe]

Fair question.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I don't see how nk wimof spec helps the situation at all.

The fact is we have reason to believe all except Primate are town and we should move forward as such until we know otherwise.

3 non town is the most common setup correct and 2 non town are dead.

[NoPowerOverMe]

@MOD, is it okay to post results of setups that we roll ourselves in the thread if we just post the results and don't use dice tags?

[NoPowerOverMe]

Game 1:
VT
VT
VT
VT
Lover(named VT)
Godfather
Psychiatrist

Mafia Doctor
Mafia Strongman

Werewolf
Nija werewolf
Werewolf Gravedigger

Survivor

[NoPowerOverMe]

To me the most logical course of action is to eliminate Primate to see if we have a 10/2/1 Scenario

[NoPowerOverMe]

I'm not going to vote based on WIFOM spec.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I don't think there's that high a chance. The most likely chance is flipping Primate ends the game.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Game 2:

RR VT
18 Cop Lover
51 Tentacled Townie
55 Ascetic Townie
56 Private Investigator
77 Cop Of All Trades
80 Psychiatrist
94 Mafia Tracker
99 Mafia One Shot Dayvig
113 Werewolf Roleblocker
121 Werewolf Miller
124 Werewolf Gravedigger
137 Survivor Mason

[NoPowerOverMe]

Man a lot of scum in my rollups:

23 Doctor
26 Bodyguard
30 one shot dayvig
50 Evangelistic Townie
54 Black Goo
65 Treestump
102 Mafia Reflictive Doctor
103 Hirsute Goon
105 Alpha Goon
119 Ninja Werewolf
124 Werewolf Gravedigger
132 Alien Mass Redirector
139 Condemner

[NoPowerOverMe]

Man primate doesn't think that eliminating himself is correct go figure.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Why is echo more likely scum than cat or user?

[NoPowerOverMe]

How are you clearing user again? I like things spelled out in layman's terms sometimes.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Shocked by the number of scum in these rollups:

35 Mason
42 Lover
62 Innocent Child
73 Hero
74 Tourist
74 Tourist
80 Psychiatrist
101 Mafia Strongman
119 Ninja Werewolf
120 Werewolf One Shot PGO
127 Alien Prober
131 Alien Psychotrooper
132 Alien Mass Redirector

[NoPowerOverMe]

7 VT
14 Tracker
20 Seer
24 Roleblocker
25 Jailkeeper
52 Watchlisted Townie
69 One Shot Kingmaker
86 One Shot Townie
114 Werewolf One Shot Bulletproof
121 Werewolf Miller
124 Werewolf Gravedigger
127 Alien Prober
143 Serial Killer

[NoPowerOverMe]

1 VT
2 VT
10 VT
24 Roleblocker
59 One Shot Governor
70 Weak Jailkeeper
82 Fruit Vendor
91 Mafia Goon
97 Mafia Lover
109 Werewolf
120 Werewolf One Shot PGO
122 Werewolf Supersaint
128 Alien Vanillaizer

[NoPowerOverMe]

To figure out if we should err on the side of more non-town or less non-town. I'm leaning more non-town based on this.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I take into account all info. I just think the odds of 5 non town seem more likely than 4 non town based on this.

[NoPowerOverMe]

25 Jailkeeper
40 Mason Lover
46 Retired Werewolf Hunter
48 Miller
54 Black Goo
54 Black Goo
57 Gravedigger
86 One Shot Townie
106 Mafia Compulsive Hider
114 Werewolf One Shot Bulletproof
135 Survivor
144 One Shot Cult Recruiter
145 Wild Card/One Shot Bulletproof

[NoPowerOverMe]

10 VT
17 Cop
28 One Shot Vig
52 Watchlisted Townie
57 Gravedigger
70 Weak Jailkeeper
82 Fruit Vendor
95 Mafia Doctor
99 Mafia One Shot Dayvig
103 Hirsute Goon
107 Mafia Fruit Vendor
135 Survivor
142 Serial Killer(Immune To Werewolf kills)

[NoPowerOverMe]

10 VT
20 Seer
33 Supersaint
37 Mason
73 Hero
76 One Shot Commuter
93 Mafia Godfather
96 Mafia Roleblocker
98 Mafia Seer
124 Werewolf Gravedigger
129 Alien Silencer
134 Alien Sympathiser
135 Survivor

[NoPowerOverMe]

From a survivalist standpoint, I would like to think there is only one mafia/werewolf/alien left. Town has a much better chance in that scenario.

However, looking at the roleups that might be a utopian fantasy. I'm not really sure at this point I'll need to think on it more.

[NoPowerOverMe]

What's the case on echo and why are you so concerned with Primate getting a win?

[NoPowerOverMe]

Or, echo may have just made a non optimal play and you and user are both mafia?

[NoPowerOverMe]

anyone can really be mafia anyways.

[NoPowerOverMe]

but you couldl be lying.

[NoPowerOverMe]

The one mafia left two clears scenario sounds a little too-good-to-be-true to me.

[NoPowerOverMe]

There can't be 2 scum with you lying?

[NoPowerOverMe]

I could be a wolf, so I am not technically clear. In this game practically every role has a built in fake claim.

Why can't you and user be a mafia team?

[NoPowerOverMe]

Not necessarily, if you think I vote echo, then you NK me and that eliminates the town and you win.

Also, isn't protecting a possible town non IC-PR(doctor, cop, etc) possibly a better play than protecting an IC?

[NoPowerOverMe]

So you're threatening me?

[NoPowerOverMe]

I don't see the logic sorry

[NoPowerOverMe]

The thing that bothers me is the way you are pushing the one scum theory.

Also, the way cat trusts user and is constantly looking to him for advice.

Also, I remember user doing some math awhile back(don't remember where it was) where he showed that 3 non town was the most mathematically likely scenario and that doesn't seem to be the case.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Yeah but from my point of view you're just as likely scum as town, if not more so.

[NoPowerOverMe]

It's called bussing. Mudercat is a smart coookie. Herta and Cat formulate Herta's claim in the scum PT as well as cat's response to make him look more town.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Yeah, because mafia isn't a game where people lie.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I don't really have the time right now, I'm working a long shift tonight.

[NoPowerOverMe]

4 town/1 survivor - Possible, but not likely.
4 town/1 SK - More likely than above
3 town/1 scum/1 survivor - A good chance.
3 town/2 scum/1 survivor - Also a good chance.
3 town/2 scum/1 SK - Not a good chance


These are the possibilities as I see it with 3 and 4 being the most likely. Wouldn't be surprised with 2.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Sorry 4) should be 2/2/1 and 5 should be 2/2/1

[NoPowerOverMe]

I've already said you and user.

[NoPowerOverMe]

You and Herta and user.

[NoPowerOverMe]

8/3/1/1

[NoPowerOverMe]

Or primate is SK

[NoPowerOverMe]

Here's 10 more rollups.

1-87=Town, 88-107=Mafia 108-125=Werewolf 126-134=Alien 135-146=3P
1) 4 31 32 49 61 68 75 85 111 117 119 127 128: 8T, 0M, 3W, 2A, 0P
2) 8 16 32 45 54 77 86 88 96 97 101 105 130: 7T, 5M, 0W, 1A, 0P
3) 3 23 34 44 55 60 117 119 125 130 131 135 138: 6T, 0M, 3W, 2A, 2P
4) 2 4 18 34 36 40 57 105 105 116 117 119 130: 7T, 2M, 3W, 1A, 0P
5) 9 17 30 32 60 62 77 79 91 97 98 132 144: 8T, 3M, 0W, 1A, 1P
6) 2 17 30 34 40 48 72 77 83 89 121 124 146: 9T, 1M, 2W, 0A, 1P
7) 12 13 16 26 31 47 51 53 76 104 106 114 120: 9T, 2M, 2W, 0A, 0P
8) 21 38 39 39 43 57 87 95 128 130 134 135 138: 7T, 1M, 0W, 3A, 2P
9) 2 10 25 29 54 60 68 85 91 122 124 140 144: 8T, 1M, 2W, 0A, 2P
10) 1 9 27 38 44 62 67 70 71 92 134 136 145: 8T, 1M, 0W, 1A, 2P
6 Town=1 7 Town = 3, 8 Town = 4 9 Town=2

[NoPowerOverMe]

8:5 town to non town seems to be the most common setup, and if that is the case then there is two scum left, not just one. Night interactions seem to indicate that it is more likely less than 5 more so than more than 5. If we can eliminate 5 non town as a possibility I want it drawn up exactly how this is determined, and I'm not talking about a "I have been playing pro town the whole game" analysis.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Already 6 have flipped town and I know I'm town(7). What I'm trying to figure out is if there's one other town left(8) or two other town left(9).

[NoPowerOverMe]

If there was only 1 kill last night, and we assume it's because one of the evil factions was eliminated rather than roleblocking or doctoring, than that means that there are no werewolfs left.

[NoPowerOverMe]

We know that Iconeum was immune to serial killer kills so than means that he had to be killed by mafia(not werewolf).

[NoPowerOverMe]

If it is an 8:5 setup than that means the faction specific setup is 8:4:1 and only including alive players it is 2:2:1

If it is a 9:4 setup than it is 9:3:1, 3:1:1

The elephant in the room seems to be weather there is one mafia or two mafia.

Cat and I seem to be clear because we are not hammering for the win. Primate is not a SK because there was only one kill last night(unless rb or doc or kills doubled up).

Echo not protecting a known townie does seem fishy, but I'm not exactly convinced he is a top tier player(no offense Echo, I'm probably not either).

Is there a scenario where User and Echo are partners? I just feel like I'm missing something and I don't town too lose because I'm missing something obvious or failing to do the required work.

[NoPowerOverMe]

One thing that stuck out in doing a quick iso of Echo is that Echo called Titus' reads "lazy", Titus is known as a top tier player and Titus was NK'd night 1.

[NoPowerOverMe]

User could be mafia by himself right?

[NoPowerOverMe]

Please go through this step by step.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Eliminating echo is probably the best course of action I am just weary of eliminating a doctor.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I'm weary that echo protected a kill last night andi is town

[NoPowerOverMe]

Has echo claimed his visit last night