Mini Theme 2172: Great Idea Mafia - Game Over

[Primate]

I don't really have an intention of keeping pace with spam, sorry.

I don't think the claim means much, it's a big deck. There is a werewolf gravedigger, which to me possibly suggests that if NPOM is scum they're werewolf/SK, but that's marginal.

[Primate]

I'm too old, I can't keep up with that business anymore.

I actually had one of my suggestions added to this deck at 2014 AVmeet. If anyone's rolled the compulsive child killer, you're welcome.

[Primate]

VOTE: Rannygazoo

naked vote on NPOM in the midst of discussion surrounding his claim is scummy. explain yourself.

Agree.

VOTE: Rannygazoo

The deck has a few interesting quirks in the kind of setups it comes out with, it's worth looking at the role list and thinking what implications that has on the kind of scum arrangements you're likely to see in a game.

[Primate]

I did see that there was a gravedigger claim, but I didn’t realize at the time that it was from NPOM.

i find the minor details here to make your story believable. you could have said the claim drew your attention and was thusly the reason for your vote, you could have said that you hadn't seen the claim at all, but saying neither is an unexpected twist.

you have passed the test. congratulations.

Don't get this, but alright.

UNVOTE:
To people who have played setup before, would you care to link to a typical game so the rest of us know what to expect?

I've played this setup a lot face to face so I can answer, although its not really a useful discussion to have until later in the day imho.

1. Don't be surprised if there are weird scum arrangements. 1 werewolf/1 alien/1 SK is plausible. Group scum is possible but not certain.
2. The amount of named townies and the fact that a lot of roles have scum equivalents makes role claiming odd.

Tracking NPOM to two people doesn't mean anything. If the Mafia kill X and Werewolves kill Y, NPOM is still going to be tracked to two people, regardless of whether they actually targetted either of them. It's only relevant if NPOM gets tracked to someone that *doesn't* die.

Shelly the way u started off this game reminds me a shit ton of ur scum games. Ur scum games always start off looking very very protown. However when ur town, u always start off meh or really scummy :/

Interesting shout, this one.

username - efforts to solve renny and move the game out of RVS is protown
titus - engaging noraa instead of chilling off and further the game is protown
npom - because of claim
noraa - gut town + critical thinking and paranoia in 129

Yeah, I think this is broadly correct. It's kind of a shallow reading, as expected, this early in the game, but these are the people signalling town, and for these reasons.

[Primate]

Yes one tracker should get two kill results now that I think about it.

Wait no. The watcher has to watch the person being killed. Tracker could get two results though if I am thinking about it correctly.

The roled are random so a vanilla majority is not guaranteed.

Yes, yes, and yes.

IMO posting about mechanics like this is a scumtell because it’s just fluff. It gives the illusion of contributing without bringing us any closer to finding scum. Don’t do this after I said I believed your claim

Just not wild about this post generally, it made from the perspective of someone who has been challenged on their vote on someone and hasn't yet removed it. Could be performative justification. Maybe I'm tunneling too early, idk.

[Primate]

@RedCardinal: Who's scum?

What do you think voting on inactives will accomplish?

Agree w/this sentiment.

[Primate]

I'm asking redcardinal specifically because they've posted mostly game speculation stuff, but also changed their vote from a RVS vote, to you, so the implication there is that they have something, but aren't really talking about it in favour of instead weighing in on setup stuff. The question itself is just a more provocative way of asking "what are your thoughts".

[Primate]

why do I find myself agreeing with everything redcardinal posts, red is super town

Yeah.

I read herta as a bit more of a complex situation than you in particular are acknowledging, but broadly I think there could be something there.

UNVOTE: Rannygazoo
VOTE: Herta

(Unrelated, but if Noraa/shelly meta is based on literally one game we can talk about I care about it a lot less, pshaw)

[Primate]

@RedCardinal: I don't see how you could possibly reach that conclusion in a game that's quite likely to not have group scum.

[Primate]

If you're claiming saulus I'm not sure this is the right play, but hey.

[Primate]

Saulus starts mafia, when dies turns town. Judas the other way round.

Saulus doesn't wake with the Mafia N1 for obvious reasons.

[Primate]

@RedCardinal: I don't see how you could possibly reach that conclusion in a game that's quite likely to not have group scum.

can you explain "likely to not have group scum" for me
like you think there's no factions, and each non-town aligned player is like 1sk, 1ww, etc?
or am i reading it wrong

The latter, but think I'm wrong after running some example setups. Most of them had at least one pair. I'm used to smaller games of this. I retract any comments I had about this, feel free to do associations.

[Primate]

Jeez people. Get a grip.

You got me scumclaiming to conceding to claiming saulus. How does that work?

I didn't think you were actually scumclaiming, I think that faking a scumclaim is in itself scummy.

I did seal=saulus because that gif/post seemed to be a "I can't be bothered to do this, I'll roll over and die" concession, there's a slight name association, and Saulus is one of the few roles that might actually want to be lynched D1.

[Primate]

Also, Noraa, maybe I'm old fashioned, but I'm not comfortable with you referring to ongoing games in the way you are doing, if there's only the one completed game? Can you at least try and keep discussion limited to finished games and this game? I can't properly engage with the way you're presenting your argument at the minute.

[Primate]

I haven't been a meta freak (or a good player) in like 12 years but I'll take a look then, much more comfortable now, thanks, sorry.

[Primate]

Now I've done that I hard disagree that her meta makes her look scummy, if anything the opposite.

[Primate]

I think this game started weirdly which is why I'm not more certain, but yeah. Don't let me stop you, I'm well out of practice with this type of thing, and I tend to prefer my meta reads to inform what I'm seeing in thread than dictate them.

[Primate]

So many really's but I legit feel strongly about this and nothing'll change that besides a green flip in which case I will be absolutely bamboozled.

Yeah, go for it. I'm not your boss.

(This is partially why I don't like meta being argued in thread honestly, I'm not saying it's not effective, it is, but when you talk about it all comes down to vibes, you can't really debate it.)

My view on Hertas scumclaim is that I get why in the moment you could treat is as serious, I have seen players dip out p much immediately like that by claiming scum before. In retrospect it's a joke, but I think it opens up questions about why you would joke that way in that situation. But, Herta is (seems to be) a new (new to this site?) player, so unconventional responses are to be expected. In terms of mindset, I think defensive humour like that is a scumtell, but I don't think it's damning. I thought the seal post was evidently more of a concession than the double down on "hey whatever" than what it seems to be have been intended as. That said I think having a mindset that your own lynch is something that is the natural state of things, like Herta seems to have, is a scumtell generally. I think this wagon is building a little opportunistically but it's not one I hate without Herta giving me a reason to unvote I can believe in.

[Primate]

On a massively unrelated note I randomised three setups earlier to investigate that group scum thing and each one had three scum groups, one had three scumgroups and sk, so I hope u guys are ready for a fun n1.

[Primate]

Sorry, I was busy all yesterday so I need to reengage.

Redcardinal reading Shelly and Noraa as scum in #222 together feels a little contrarian.

Noraa #248. Very eh on this vote. I think red's being weird but not sure about scummy.

I don't buy Noraa as scum generally. Would a scum spend the early bit of the day hard pushing a niche meta case? I'd say a hard no in singleball when they know it to be incorrect, maybe in multiball it's more likely?

Reasonable post from Titus in #275.

I want a counter to this wagon.

I don't see how this is helpful at all. Not a counterwagon generally, Ico specifically.

Herta giving off major "you caught me for the wrong reasons" vibes here.

Yeah. There's little talk about how the wagon is wrong, just that it's undeserved.

Echo's behaviour with the wagon switch is odd but I'm not sure it's scummy. He was on a safe wagon that he could have just sat on, people were starting to join, what's the scum motivation for switching at that point? Just towncred signalling? IDK, why couldn't he do that from the ICO wagon? I would very much like Echo to stop lurkerchasing though. The whole behaviour is a little scummy because it's a shield for nonengagement.

Rannygazoo is still scummy.

[Primate]

wolf oo faction slip?

+1

Seriously?

[Primate]

I just feel this is town pushing on town. I don't see anyone trying to defend Herta. I'll hammer to get the game going, I just think scum are coasting here.

Yeah, the wagons today have been interesting. It's kind of back to normal now but it was notably slow in doing so.

NPOM is pretty tiresome.

Herta is scummier than ranny. I like the ranny wagon though.

Town vibes from EV.

RC went weird for a bit then recovered.

Shelly may actually be scum, I'm more open to that idea now.

[Primate]

I’m waiting for someone else to comment on Titus’s posting, because his lowkey trolling is clearly anti-town, but town is not going to hear it from me, it seems.

Nah I like it.

[Primate]

Just generally to answer both your questions, it's about execution, and I think it's interesting that you're looking at it that way.

You think titus did a scummy thing that she's not getting enough stick for? Implicit in this course of argument, aligning it with your action like you are doing, you are acknowledging that you did a scummy thing, correct?

[Primate]

It probably has something to do with redcardinal’s policy of deciding which slots to scumread and then picking reasons later as he explained to me in 463

Not what she's saying there.

And the aligning the actions thing was about the fact that if you think you and titus did the same thing then surely you, as town, would consider that post a towntell from titus, but instead you seem to be scumreading her a bit.

[Primate]

Just generally to answer both your questions, it's about execution, and I think it's interesting that you're looking at it that way.

Am I to read this as “it’s actually a good thing that ranny is the object of titus’s trolling, because of my SR on ranny”?

Nah. It's about inviting an attack vs shielding vs an attack. Titus was inviting an attack, imho, which isn't scummy.

[Primate]

RadiantCowbells wrote this topic on how to be toxic to win at mafia viewtopic.php?f=5&t=84099 and I’ve been thinking about it lately

(I’m not accusing anyone here of being toxic)

Radiantcowbells literally drove one of my closest friends off the site, fuck that guy. (I associate RC more with reapercharlie actually, but that's just as bad).

I'll stop using that acronym, yeah, it's obviously cursed.

[Primate]

Titus who should I be voting for.

[Primate]

I'm here.

I think murdercats introduction to the game has been good and is fairly townie.

I don't think NPOM is scummy, just unhelpful. I think expecting him to be cleared via role based stuff is too hopeful.

Shelly replacing out is annoying. I don't think it's NAI but I'm going to treat it as if it is for meta reasons. ItalianoVD's introduction to the game is null.

Iconeum's intro posts are scummy but it's kind of a shit situation where it's kind of always going to seem that way.

I still think Herta is scummy and I don't understand townreads there.

When I first started rereading I was getting scumvibes from redcardinal but I don't have them anymore, actually her content is fine.

IAMAU is giving off good player vibes and I have a massive null on that slot.

I think Primate might be an anti-town role playing in a pro town way, which is why everyone seems to be vibing with him. As a matter of fact if I had to guess I’d say there are multiple anti-town roles posing as pro town right now.

You're wrong about me, but I think this is the right idea. I'm not saying anything the protown players or anything, but scumhunting isn't necessarily the tell it would be in other games, I think you need to be looking for other things.

Ranny's claim isn't great. I don't think you claim fruit vendor d1 unless you are one, but that doesn't mean much. I think the lack of knowledge about multitasking is probably sincere and means that if they're scum there's probably another mafia out there.

I think Ranny flipping scum is good for Titus, honestly. That said, I don't really get why Titus's read on Ranny changed. But I don't get why titus as scum with ranny would change the wagon there, and I don't get why Titus as scum not with ranny would give up on it there. The obvious read here is that she genuinely thinks Shelly is scum and that's the reason to switch, and I think that shows pro-town motive.

yall are gonna get a low effort joyed this game, sorry
I looked through the list and I saw that there wasn't a mafia/antitown king, all i saw was a 1shot kingmaker. So I'm gonna be upfront so if we have a king they don't kill themselves: this game I rolled hero.
Probably gonna be more like a vt but whatever.

This seems like a town claim to me considering there is no pressure on plus

Yes.

Unvote

I think Ranny is a fine enough vote today. He's probably my top scumread too.

[Primate]

That's an awfully big post to not make much conclusions in, Primate

A rep out isn't NAI but you'll regard it as such nontheless because META?
Generic statement about Herta
'Redcardinal was scummy but isn't anymore'
'IAAUN good vibes' into a null read?

What about the vendor claim do you consider bad? You said it yourself, it's a proveable action so the claim is probably legit.
You came to that conclusion. So why do you jump to a scumread on someone who claimed their role while they were on L-1 (not actually, but they believed they were which is what counts)

Yeah, that's the nature of catchup posts. I'm not going to try and pull some contrarian take or case out my ass just to build towncred when I don't think the current elim targets are town.

If replacing out can be a towntell that encourages players to replace out of games. You need to treat it as NAI to stop players being rewarded for dropping out of games. You can use it to factor in your internal decisions obviously but it shouldn't be mentioned in thread.
'IAAUN good vibes' is straight up misreading from you here. I said "good player" vibes. As in "he is a good player", and its harder to get reads out of him. I don't know who is considered a good player now, but it's like how a scumtell from, say, glork, is worth a lot more than a scumtell from, say, vyper. Username is clearly a decent player, so whilst I would normally townread the posts he's making, in this context, I'm going to treat those townreads as less valuable.
My Redcardinal read specifically is a bit off and I need to do better there, I currently lean town on that slot, but I've gone back and forth a few times and could do with actually having confidence in my read there.

The fruit vendor claim is mediocre because it's a scum role. It doesn't mean anything. It's provable, yes, but if they do prove it all we know is that he now has a 50% chance of being scum.
And it's misrep to say I'm jumping to a scumread on Ranny. I've had a scumread on ranny since the beginning of the day and have mentioned it since. I've not been posting much and through most the day I've preferred the Herta elim so I'm not going to say I've been key on his wagon or anything but it's absolutely not out of nowhere.

[Primate]

I'll wait just because I will feel really dumb if I flip an IC and there is basically no cost to waiting

Same, but like, uhhhh, no way.

[Primate]

Noraa you're really obviously town.

[Primate]

And how am I "obviously town"?
I remember ur past reads did not by any means reflect that

I think this is wrong.

Also

huh

.

[Primate]

Also, please have there be a compulsive child killer if this is real that would actually be amazing

I am a little sad about this

It's come up like twice irl in around 150 games.

but the possibility!

[Primate]

Everyone come wagon username with me, even if we don't flip let's at least pressure there

Flash wagon, go, now, do it

Yeah, sure.

VOTE: Vote iamausername

[Primate]

I feel like this is a good time for us to engage in mafia philosophy using counterclaiming fruit vendors as our primary example. In my dissertation i shall

[Primate]

Also, this is specifically towards Primate because he seems to have a lot of setup knowledge, but curious to hear input from others as well. When is it good to just massclaim? I'm thinking that there might be some gains D2 as it would force scum to fake claim early and there's no guarantee that town actually has any useful roles.

We generally play in smaller games and it happens day 2. It generally clears a couple of people, not like actually clear, but people who seem to have really good claims. I pretty much always play with similar people so meta comes in a lot as well. It's all irl, so it's that whole in the moment claim thing. I think I'm maybe a bit biased due to the short length of games.

Counterclaims are pretty rare, I wouldn't expect them. If you get something busted like bloodhound that's a shame they have to claim early but c'est la vie. I think D2 is a reasonable time to start talking about it depending on how many kills there are.

[Primate]

I'm around, I'm just putting together a post now, accept the prod though.

[Primate]

Sorry, I'm drunk so take this post with a grain of salt, I'll have to address properly tomorrow morning.

I mostly voted IAMAU to see what would happen, frankly.

ItalianoVD is a maybe but feels like such a compromise candidate.

Titus has fucking ghosted, what the hell is up with that.

Iconeum is a wasterman.

I'd compromise to Herta based on earlier reads but he's been alright recently and his wagon indecision was neat.

I don't rate the redcardinal wagon.

IAMAU seems the correct elim right now, imho.

(no elim is probably reasonable but you didn't hear it from me)

[Primate]

btw

fos anyone that has scumread on echo

that slots town as balls.

[Primate]

I don’t understand the shade on italiano because he hasn’t been acting any different from joyed.

Nah, not the same at all.

[Primate]

Titus has fucking ghosted, what the hell is up with that.

I have been here. Fuck you you likely scumfuck. If sober Titus agrees, we will come after you.

Yeah, this was rude and I apologise.

I meant just that you didn't seem as driving recently, which felt weird to me as I thought you were fairly on it. What I said was a huge exagerration.

[Primate]

ok so I'm bad. Noraa that was the sickest soul read I've ever seen.

Lol at the IC living. 2 scum teams? Or maybe 1 SK? Or maybe a vig?

My off the cuff guess would be that the two scumteams aren't shooting the obvious target to avoid crosskills.

I'm kind of wrapping myself in knots debating what means anything in this game wrt to the way the ialiano wagon went yesterday.

[Primate]

I don't think Titus was vigged but w/eva.

[Primate]

Nah, there's probably another maf. The aliens only get one kill all game and you kind of assume they wouldn't use it N1. So if you're looking at two killing scum you have mafia/werewolf/sk. And a second mafia is more likely than an SK. It's not certain but that'd be my guess.

VOTE: Primate

i think he is mafia, specifically. of all the people voting for me, he stuck out as someone who didn't actually believe that i was scum. 1307 is incredibly wishy-washy on Italiano when that wagon was just starting to develop, and it feels to me like he just didn't know how to react to a last minute attempt to off his scumbuddy who had seemed 100% safe the day before deadline.

This is wrong but no issues with this read.

his comments on shelly's replacement in 989 and 993 seemed weird at the time, but in light of the flip, they look really bad to me. if Primate really believes that shelly replacing out was a towntell that shouldn't be mentioned in thread for game integrity reasons,

why is he mentioning it in the thread

? it comes across as "hey, you guys should totally think that slot is town for this, but you didn't hear it from me *wink*".

also, just now, there was this:

I don't think Titus was vigged but w/eva.

why talk about Titus specifically as the vig target? is it because you know Noraa was a scum kill?

Think these are pretty ridiculous though. I purposefully phrased 989 and 993 in a way that meant I wasn't confirming whether I thought it was a towntell or not. And I mentioned Titus specifically because the idea of someone vigging Noraa after that D1 is ridiculous. This comment about the Titus vigging is just you throwing some shit at the wall, it's not a coherent point.

[Primate]

What a weird game.

[Primate]

Sorry, I'm going to have to take a V/LA for a couple of days because of work.

[Primate]

I'm rereading now.

[Primate]

Ok, this is where I am right now.

Killing mafia is optimal, for both the town and all other scum factions. The other scum probably don't care too much about eliminating the correct person, which is why you might get quick wagons, in abstract. This makes it awkward to read alignments of people on the wagon generally, as the other scum also want to kill mafia, but it's balanced by the fact by the fact that the scum don't care about hitting town. So the distinguishing factor is how much people actually care about hitting town, today.

It can't be redcardinal, makes no sense, and it's unlikely to be herta, I think. Murdercat is playing well but he's not in the right place on the wagons to make it unlikely he's mafia. Echo is in a similar boat, but was in a better position on the wagon.

I think there are good reasons to think it's plusjoy.
#364-366,#370.#964 from shelly/italiano are odd interactions,
#1274 from plusjoy.

i know that much the same can be said of plusJOYED, but it feels extremely off to me how easily that wagon got to E-1 compared to the resistance there has been to any attempt to put pressure on NPOM throughout the game. like, both of them are openly not giving a shit about the game, so why is it that only one of them is being called out for it by anyone besides the confirmed town player?

I do agree with this. Not so much that NPOM requires more pressure (beacause I don't really know what that would achieve) but more that this is quick.

My concern is that if we go Plusjoy today based on mafia associations and we're wrong we've basically spent the day chasing a false lead. I think we could stand to do a bit more general reads about scumminess and odd behaviour, possibly even ignoring the mafia connection aspect, then bring that back in later.

[Primate]

ItalianoVD (7) -

Noraa

, redcardinal,

Titus

, EchoVision, Herta,

Rannygazoo

, MURDERCAT
iamausername (3) - Primate, PlusJOYED,

ItalianoVD

Herta (2) - iamausername, NoPowerOverMe
PlusJOYED (1) - Iconeum
Not voting (0)

This may seem an ass backwards way to look at it, but if you look at through the perspective of leading a last minute elimination on someone who could be town, what comes up?

Redcardinal comes across as someone who is willing to take a major personal risk, as one of the leading wagons at the time, to lead a new wagon against someone new, which is townie. They could have done nothing and hoped the username wagon came through. Town points.

Echovision is a bit of a wagon switcher generally but this is positive in terms of town points.

Herta's past the point of it being relevant, at that point they were under a little pressure to vote and the redcardinal wagon they were on previously was done so I don't think this vote means much.

Murdercat explictly votes to ensure an elim, this is mainly null.

Plusjoy, Iconeum, username weren't really around during the wagon and were sitting on earlier votes. NPOM's #1339 could be read as a tell but honestly it's the same kind of literal reading of thing's he's been doing.

[Primate]

It actually purely from associations could easily be ItalianoVD-Murdercat as the mafia. I'm surprised people aren't suggesting that. I think murdercats general play is good but there's some sus stuff with IVD in there.

[Primate]

We want to stop there being two nightkills in order to stabilise the game, imho. Obviously I don't know that killing another mafia will do that, there could be three, but to some extent you're always playing the odds.

[Primate]

Crosskills is fun speculation but it's so unreliable.

[Primate]

Red could have been Mason alone correct?

Ya.

Very strongly tempted to claim, but lets do it as part of a massclaim.

[Primate]

My claim is likely to be distracting, fwiw. It shouldn't be, but people have kneejerk reactions around these things. I'm happy to start and then we go popcorn, if we completely agree to go popcorn?

[Primate]

I'm fine with either of those two going first as well. I'd say Ico if anyone.

[Primate]

I'll just say I want to go after username that's my only request

I'd like a specific claim from username if it's not actually VT but one of the functional VTs but yeah it'd be nice to get confirmation of that.

[Primate]

Alright then.

Few Caveats. I absolutely want the town to win, it's much more interesting that way.

Secondly, I have always tried to legitimately scumhunt, I have been possibly lazy, but never not sincere.

Thirdly, I say to scumgroups I will not support you if you try to force a win.

I claim Survivor.

I claim this because it's honestly what I am and frankly I think we've reached the point where the town will lose if you eliminate me.

Next in popcorn is Iconeum, for me.

[Primate]

Ugh what an annoying claim

It's complicated but it's honest.

I give you my word if you're town I'm not the reason you're going to lose this game, if you lose this game.

[Primate]

lets hope cross kills pop up n3 then

I think it would be a misplay from the scums if they aren't aiming for crosskills N3.

[Primate]

I get what echovision is saying but I think it's they should probably claim. It's just less risky if it backfires tomorrow when they claim something not that impressive.

I think herta's claim targets are weird. My concern is that we sped through yesterday, with a default lynch, and now Herta seems pushed. IDK.

Murdercat's claim specifically is great for Username and NPOM. It does set up a potential NPOM-Murdercat pair, but hey. Murdercat is probably town after he counterclaimed before the mod confirmed that there could be the same role rolled multiple times though.

Now I mostly want to see why Herta targeted Redcardinal.

[Primate]

I'll think on it, can anyone think of a way we lose tonight if primate is survivor and we elim there?

You don't lose tonight, but if there's two town kills again tonight it puts you in a 4 person endgame with at least 2 scum.

I wouldn't have claimed survivor if I didn't think we were past the point you could deal with getting rid of me. If I go it has to be because you think I'm scum, really.

If you get rid of scum today and there's only one kill it goes down to 5 and then it's more of a discussion about whether it's worth getting rid of me, imho.

Idk, it might make sense if you equate survivor = scum (or if you actually think I'm scum), but it's lazy and risky.

[Primate]

It's lazy imho because it omits the current game state. I'm aware it's better to get rid of survivors so they don't side with scum. That's why I waited until a point where I didn't think you could sensibly do that. It's not a question of whether you can trust survivors, it's a question of what the game state will be if you do vs if you don't.

As Ico says, if you elim me it's two kills tonight, because if herta is scum they're probably scum RB and block MurderCat.

If you elim me today and herta tomorrow and herta is town, me and town probably lose unless you rely on crosskills.

If you elim Herta as town, murder blocks someone and we go into tomorrow with 4 or 5, including me. If it's 5 we know a scum and we elim them. If it's 4, there's probably only one townie left at that point .

If you elim me today and herta is scum, you'll be at four players for sure, and you're entirely reliant on the other killing scum killing herta.

If you elim herta today and herta is scum, we go into d4 with 6 or 5 alive. 6 you probably have a confirmed scum, 5 you have a confirmed innocent. At this point, you have 5 alive with one other scumgroup left, you can then decide to flip the coin and get rid of me. At that point if there are 2 teamed scum left, you lose, if 1 teamed scum, you go into a 3p endgame.

There are scenarios where killing me is good, but it's generally reliant on the scum crosskilling a scum herta. Which is interesting, because it is definitely the right play from the scum PoV to win the endgame, but basically puts the chance of the towns victory in the scums hands, and it ignores the fact that the other scum may have 'tricks'" That's why I say it's risky.

[Primate]

If there is a mafia and werewolf and a survivor faction we are fucked anyways unless they kill each other off.

Only if you choose to shoot yourself in the foot by considering a survivor an enemy.

[Primate]

So what's your path to victory if I'm survivor and I go today?

[Primate]

So you'd prefer to give the scum control of the game via night actions, than give a third party potential control of the game via one vote, correct?

Can you please quote, for future reference

"I am happy for the mafia or werewolves to win the game if I get to kill a survivor on day three."

[Primate]

Ofc. Do you want to say your target before we go to night? I don't think you entirely need to with a doc. There's things than can mess with you through a doc but there's things that can mess with everything.

[Primate]

Like, he probably is gravedigger so obviously that's who you would have do the kill right?

Agree.

[Primate]

Can I hammer or is there still stuff people want to do.

[Primate]

VOTE: Herta

[Primate]

If the RB claim is accurate. Maybe primate could run some Sims on how common dupes are?

It's like 44%~ I think of at least one duplicate (a la birthday paradox).

I want an answer from EV too because yeah, those are actually some odd nightaction targets.

[Primate]

Unvote

[Primate]

the doc claim has to be bullshitting

mhmm.

I didn't think self protecting docs have been a thing for a long while. Unless they've come back into the meta it's very odd.

[Primate]

This is an open setup. The mod isn't going to randomly throw in an every other night doc to keep us on our toes. The only real justification of a self protecting doc is that it's enough of a standard way of doing things that the mod thinks it's an acceptable "standard" pick.

[Primate]

I think I get the vibe that vague is good here so I'm going to end it while things still are.

VOTE: Herta

[Primate]

Echo I think you should choose whoever you want to protect then, me or you. If we are lucky it might keep us both safe.

really what he should have done was committed to protecting you in thread and then protected himself anyway

but i guess the wifom strategy is fine too

Eh, maybe. I'm not wild about that kind of play tbh. I'm a mafia prude though.

[Primate]

This is something I've had deep deep in the back of my mind. It's that primate suggested a mass claim on day 2. Why would a survivor want an early mass claim?

I was talking from a general persepective. I would have falseclaimed.

I think username's plan is broadly correct. My only concern with it is that it asks us to clear NPOM, which I don't know if I'm prepared to do knowing the last scum is werewolf. I think it's likely that they'd be the murderer, but I don't think it's as nailed on as people are talking about.

I think people aren't talking about the Iconeum kill enough. I think from my perspective that was a really odd kill.

[Primate]

This isn't an attempt by me to slip out of it by the way, I think I'm definitely the correct elimination today with the Iconeum kill. I took a risk and it didn't work.

[Primate]

I would like to claim to be a massive idiot who hadn't had a coffee yet.

[Primate]

Nah it's not a slip, just stupidity. It doesn't really make sense as a slip either, it doesn't mean anything that comes from a scum mindset. I was just coming at the argument from the wrong place.

You're right, the scum is likely mafia.

which also makes me and NPOM 100% clear unless there are actually two scum left.

Yep.

So does that mean town kills me today then murder tomorrow and wins? If the self protect claim is that solid (which I think it is) that makes some sense to me?

But then we start getting to the weeds a bit with those odd roles that can mess with things, like Rbs and Strongmen, and it's a question for the town to what extent they're willing to tolerate speculation about that kind of thing.

[Primate]

I think people aren't talking about the Iconeum kill enough. I think from my perspective that was a really odd kill.

It's not me or echo, so it was designed to dodge the blocks. What's weird about it?

If you'd Rb'd me, Ico was the elim target today, probably. That kill only really makes complete sense from someone that *knows* Ico is going to be the RBtarget or is willing to take a risk on the fact they are. It doesn't really make sense from me, because it makes me the lynch target today. If it was me, I would have tried to kill you, I think that's my only viable play.

[Primate]

I think this maybe isn't as much of a point against you as it might seem at first because i think targetting ico with the rb was clearly the correct play but you can't discount that if say, hypomafia username, wanted to kill someone going into N3, why would they pick a potential elim target over someone who they know is pseudoconfirmed by RB like NPOM.

[Primate]

Suppositions that consider me mafia are unhelpful because they won't survive me dying. If I'm mafia you can talk about that tomorrow. Today is only for speculation that involves me being survivor or unrelated third party.

[Primate]

I think this'll probably come down to last day (username/NPOM)/Murdercat/Echo and with un/npom having to decide between murder and echo I think that's what username/npom and echo should be planning for right now.

[Primate]

and murder obviously, but murder is already planning for that.

[Primate]

If username and NPOM trust me enough then we are basically deciding whether or not primate wins with us if he is survivor.

Why do you think echo is more likely to be scum than a hypothetical me who is lying? I don't understand.

[Primate]

Username, please provide the corrent opinion that i think is correct. NPOM is freewheeling here.

[Primate]

*correct opinion that i think is correct

[Primate]

Man primate doesn't think that eliminating himself is correct go figure.

Eliminating me is absolutely correct, pay attention. Only Murder is arguing otherwise, not me.

[Primate]

I've been being kind of quiet today because I don't want to jinx it honestly. If you're genuinely willing to move the lynch order around so I have a chance at winning I'm massively grateful. I've tried to be a sincere as I can.

Username is entirely right on Murdercat's counterclaim being good for him. It'd be a big risk as scum to be seen to be falsly counterclaiming like that.

[Primate]

The thing that bothers me is the way you are pushing the one scum theory.

Also, the way cat trusts user and is constantly looking to him for advice.

Also, I remember user doing some math awhile back(don't remember where it was) where he showed that 3 non town was the most mathematically likely scenario and that doesn't seem to be the case.

It was murdercat and the math was about number of nontown factions, not number of nontown. 3 nontown "factions" in this game stands a fair chance of being right (mafia/ww/survivor). The permutations you posted are 3/4 nontown factions.

Also loving the sarcasm being thrown around, ha.

[Primate]

VOTE: EchoVision so Murder can make the decision about what he wants to do without fears I'll end the day before they're ready.

[Primate]

I mean it makes sense now you're not hammering, ha. These are my general thoughts.

The Claim: I think it implies that echo is actually a doctor. I think the possibilty that Echo is a mafia doc is probably correct but I don't necessarily think they're mafia.
The Nightactions: v weird, scummy.
The nightkills: I don't think these go either way. Redcardinal was suspicious of herta, so that probably happened, leaving echo with Nora/titus and ranny, which isn't interesting. Iconeum was super anti-echo and the end of yesterday, so it makes sense as a kill from that perspective.
The Connections: The stuff below is the kind of thing that makes me reckon there could be something there. Lots of shelley having Echo as their second elim target and then not doing anything with it. From echo it's less cut and dry, I think the IVD push was honestly fine.

echo wagon is good but I want herta today, im the reverse titus

im going to add primate to the townlean pile for that post and the efforts to make a push against ranny.

Town
iamausername
NPOM
redcardinal

Townlean
Titus
Primate

TBD
everyone else

Scumlean/question mark
Echovision
Assemble

Scum
Herta

npom what do you think about herta wagon and the echo one?

???

heads up that im repping out

can't manage this game atm

i think murder/primate/red/echo/username are all town, we townblock there, i retract my earlier solve, still not sure noraa is town, there's nothing as LHF and occams is the way, nuke herta NOW.

bc i’m a fucking expert and my best friend shelly knows i’m an expert
but shellys bein a lil bit of a weirdo so i am accepting new best friend applications
i don’t really like how towny shellys being

but it’s never the person you most suspect nor least suspect it’s whoever you middle most suspect
shelly+ noraa scum team again throwback to doggos

also shelly's null for me right now
which means shelly's prob town

whenever shelly's scum she pockets me and makes me town read her but i don't really read her this game but i haven't paid much attention to her because she hasn't pocketed me yet

[Primate]

Also primate, could you share the general sense of your win condition? I assume you just need to survive until another win condition is achieved, is that correct?
NPOM suggested that we could be 4 town 1 survivor so I want to show that isn't the case.

You're broadly correct, but there are probably hypothetical situations involving everyone else dying that could make me the sole winner. I dont have any more insight as to what set of conditions would cause the mod to end the game.

[Primate]

Current game state I think rules out a few possibilities.

If it's 3 team scum, maf or werewolf, and murdercat is part of it, he hammers and takes the win.
If it's 3 team scum, maf or werewolf, and echo is part of it, lynching echo is good anyway.
If it's 3 team scum, maf or werewolf, and you are part of it, you hammer and take the win.
3 team scum with me and username is possible, but then you have to make a case for how likely that is considering I was on username most of d1, even until the end.

2/1/1 maf/ww/alien is possible, with any of us being the alien, who has yet to kill. You have to make that case though, there probably isn't any indication from night actions or associations, so it's just scumhunting.

It's up to you to make that case given your scumreads on the game. If you just assume 5 scum and fit the game to that you could easily be forcing a square peg in a round hole.

[Primate]

User and Echo is possible but echo is still scum to be eliminated then, so it's not a misplay.

It makes usernames move towards letting me live longer weirder, as you've been pretty up for eliminating me and username+echo+you getting rid of me today seemed pretty plausible earlier.

[Primate]

Not really, he was blocked n2, there wouldn't have been a kill (unless it came from another source, which is unlikely).

[Primate]

Hypothetically assuming username the only mafia

n1, you blocked
Titus - Killed Night 1 - Vanilla Townie (username or herta)
Noraa - Killed Night 1 - Vanilla Townie (username or herta)

n2, username blocked
redcardinal - Killed Night 2 - Town Mason (??? or herta)
Rannygazoo - Killed Night 2 - Town Innocent Child (??? or herta)

n2, Iconeum blocked
Iconeum - Killed Night 3 - Town Retired Marine (username)

It's possible but I think circumstances lead us away from that conclusion.

[Primate]

It could be username as mafia + an alien who used their kill n2 but I don't think that's likely, I don't get why they would use it then.

[Primate]

That's the only one I can think of that doesn't involve echo

One mafia, Username the mafia strongman .

There's outs for everything, if you're doing setup analysis you play the odds. Works better ftf where you play four games a night than a forum game that lasts a month, ha.

[Primate]

Yeah, thanks for the game and moving things around so I won there, it's very much appreciated. I'm not ignorant, but I tend to play survivor as weird town and it's nice to see it pay off. There was some good play from the town throughout.

[Primate]

I'm glad we got primate over the finish line with us

best part is it might not have happened without his 'slip' of 'knowing' the last scum was werewolf.

that's what got me to realise that the last scum couldn't possibly be werewolf, and that's when me and NPOM became completely clear.

Yeah, ha. It wasn't completely out of nowhere, I knew the night actions + rb meant *something*, I just got it ass backwards as to what it actually was because I hadn't thought it through.

[Primate]

Not just a 9:4 setup, but a 9:4 where one of the "scum" didn't have a nightkill and could win with the town. Town didn't have much power but the two it did have were very effective for it. The ranny wagon being derailed by the innocent child was practically a free day, and the roleblocker was key as well.

[Primate]

I've played a few with lots of scum and they tend towards really weird endgames. The funniest one I remember was an endgame of (mafia, mafia, condemner, townie) with the condemner's target being my mafia buddy. We knew there was another scum as the game wasn't over. Condemner (AurorusVox) was practically begging me to eliminate my buddy, massively hamming it up, and it just became more and more farcical as he came up with more convoluted arguments for why it's definitely my buddy, and I had to pull arguments out my ass for why it wasn't.

My experience doesn't mean as much though, because as i say, you can tolerate imbalance in a 1hr ftf game as it's a bit of fun, in a month long forum game it can feel cheap, I appreciate you tweaking it cakez. Crosskills help but the general setup does remove agency from the town.

[Primate]

Compulsive Childkiller (if any Innocent Child is revealed, the Childkiller must immediately dayvig that player)
definitely my favorite mafia role of all time now

Echo knows what's up

Reminder this role was my idea. I came up with so many dumb ideas for roles that meet and this is the only one that made it in.