Mini Theme 2222: Open Draft Mafia [Game Over]

[Bingle]

VOTE: Bingle
Bingle amirite

Nah, I turned around. You’re left.

It’s been a while since I looked at the deck, but I don’t remember any particular tricks as important. Dunn should probs not pick mason (we might can turn it into a parity cop), but I need to think on this. See y’all tomorrow.

[Bingle]

Dunn should probs not pick mason (we might can turn it into a parity cop), but I need to think on this.

I don't understand this

You have early town cred for claiming the card right off.

By passing it off to another player, that player can become confirmed town by actually using it, and it would lock town you (barring shenanigans) by enabling it.

... I think. I'm new to this kind of game, correct me if I'm wrong.

Nope.

As proposed, Dunn might get a cop inno at some point in the future (assuming that Dunn is town and that there is a second mason in the used cards, which, for the sake of argument is a 10/13 and a 60/99) (the 60/99 comes from Dunn's perspective of knowing that there is not a second mason in his pack, unless there is a second mason card in his pack in which case I'm ruining what was actually a pretty good gambit but I find that to be unlikely to be the case). This is positive utility, and a town thought process. However, scum can always choose to burn the role if they have it or shoot Dunn if they don't to make the mason card another VT card.

Alternatively, if we have two people claim to have mason in their pack come tomorrow, we can leash both people with packs to choose mason on N2 specifically. This has the following results:

If both packs are in the hands of mafia, mafia chooses whether to fake a 1v1 or fake a masonry, which either nets us a confirmed scum or means if one scum is killed the other immediately follows.
If both packs are in the hands of town, we have a publicly known masonry on N2 with a presumable ability to protect them in the setup.
If the packs are split between town and scum we have a public 1v1 between the two players if they survive the night, again, with the benefit of likely protective power in the hands of the town.

[Bingle]

Bingle does.

To be clear: the decision above is unilaterally Dunn's decision. Dunn should decide if he thinks half public masonry with him or going for a parity cop usage is better for town and announce that decision on D2. He should not announce it before then.

[Bingle]

Oh, whoops, I meant to respond to the A50 quote separately.

I'm a high priority kill for both mastina and A50, exacerbated by the fact that this is a mech setup and I thrive in mech setups. A50 is targeting the scumkill at me specifically because he doesn't want to deal with reading my alignment, there's a decent chance I die here regardless, and because doing so makes the scumteam think twice about actually shooting me if I'm town. He also knows I expect him to do this coming into the game.

Basically, monkey is leaning hard into the WIFOM from the word go which is a promising start from him.

[Bingle]

@cat what does the murdering

: Do packs flip with remaining roles when their holder is killed? I can't remember where we ended up on that.

[Bingle]

Saving the masonry for scummier players is a decent idea, but it also presumes that the act of claiming mason is towny and I think Dunn is good enough AND likes to live dangerously enough that it isn't.

First of all, scum who knows their partner has the other mason role could easily take both mason roles and only claim one N1 as a grab for towncred. Second, we only have ~60% odds that the second mason role exists and I think that's a gamble scumDunn would be willing to take.

My hot take here, btw, is that townreading Dunn for outing the mason card is actually more town indicative than Dunn outing the mason card.

[Bingle]

Cyrus being like this is actually very town-indicative for him to the point where I'm going to go out on a limb and say we should literally never eliminate his slot unless there's a guilty on it.

How many games have you played with cyrus?

[Bingle]

A thing to keep in mind when choosing your powers:

You will know the four options another player has to choose from after making your decision. Say I were to pass up a N2 cop, the player after me would always pick it if town. That player not immediately outing a result on D3 would thus be extra special suspicious on D3. Additionally, a player receiving a pack with a N2 cop in it on D3 would definitely want to claim that, because who the fuck passes up the N2 cop for any reason.

For that purpose, strongly consider choosing a role you'd like to keep out of scum's hands (Strongman, for example) over a role you actually want to use on N1. The exception would be something like N1 Tracker or Novice Psychologist where using the role early is very important.

There are no roles that require claiming them from your pack on D1.

[Bingle]

This seems like a bad deal to me. If dunn's buddies don't have the mason, it's slightly less than 60%, but 50% chance or so that you get guiltied is awful, even more so for a strong scum player.
Hoping that other townies would clear you and let you pass the mason seems like a bad thing to rely on too. If dunn's buddy does have the mason, they have to take it too based on dunn's plan, so then he's locked in to claiming masons with his partner. And there could be a third mason right? Seems like terrible play all around

I mean... Assuming Dunn scum AND only one mason card in the scumteam AND a successful NK, the odds that town has a mason D2 are either 40/89 or 45/89 depending on whether we mislim or hit scum today. It's a high risk play, sure, but not one I think that would be beyond Dunn choosing to do. I'd definitely consider it, depending on the content of the scum packs.

If scum had both mason cards, committing to taking both mason cards N1 isn't a bad idea. It's literally the only time a mason card can be safely chosen by scum and it gives Dunn a pretty good early townread to leverage, while simultaneously denying town the ability to have a masonry.

[Bingle]

Bingle I hate you, i'm just saying.

Don't blame me because weird beard dude didn't make it clear enough that the roles changed in Draft Mafia. It was only my job as reviewer to make sure the setup info was clear enough.

[Bingle]

As town or as scum?

Both. She gutwalls early reads as scum because it's a cornerstone of her townplay.

[Bingle]

T3 is towny I think

Towniest player in the game atm.

Followed by cyrus then you.

VOTE: mastina

You know what you did.

[Bingle]

If it would be helpful I can probably write a guide to picking roles and a tierlist on role power, but I think that's mostly distracting rn anyway.

[Bingle]

If it would be helpful I can probably write a guide to picking roles and a tierlist on role power, but I think that's mostly distracting rn anyway.

the main question i want to know is the card i was going pass on the Multitasking should i risk scum getting this or shouldn't i.

Multitasking isn't really a prioritize it as a "Keep away from scum" role. Roles that are important to keep away from scum are doctors, roleblockers, ascetics, JKs. Anything else should be taken based on your ability to use the role with your other roles and your likelihood of survival.

[Bingle]

Oh, and the aforementioned SMen

[Bingle]

Actually, looking at the list of roles, ascetic isn't really useful for scum and IS useful for town if they have multitasking and an investigate. Ascetic should only be activated on a night in which you are acting, and should be immediately claimed the next day.

[Bingle]

I disagree, I think the collective town should decide for Dunn later on in the day. We have more information in play to make a good decision with than town!Dunn alone (and the most important factor is people's read on Dunn, which is inherently more in control of the collective than Dunn), as well as it better thwarts scum!Dunn.

Having the town as a whole decide for Dunn is another thing the town as a whole has to get their shit together to come to a consensus on and the decision is an incremental advantage. Having Dunn decide is a decision upon which we can read Dunn, and also makes it less likely for scum to be able to play around the mason investigation nature of the cards if we are in fact going that way.

Tell me about your Dwlee scumlean.

[Bingle]

I kinda want to do the lightning rod play again where I play with my cards face up, but I won't be taking scummy roles because of one person deciding to strike my death knell.

Please don't. Scum having imperfect information is a huge net positive for town.

[Bingle]

VOTE: House

Push feels opportunistic.

[Bingle]

I voted mastina for townreading me, btw.

[Bingle]

What do you think about my approach here vs house's, I assume you don't also scumread me for voting t3?

You look like you're trying to actually figure out T3's motivations while House looks like he's trying to paint the behavior as scummy without actually considering the motivations behind it.

Particularly his assertion in

I know you jumped on mastina last game for the same thing, but that's a really easy thing to duplicate as scum, and I think you'd be more cognizant of the fact she does that as town instead of asking whether she does that as town or scum.

sounds like he has a conclusion he wants to make and is justifying it.

[Bingle]

Why did you think T3 seemed towny before my push?

Meta. T3 feels more solvey and active than he does as scum.

[Bingle]

I don't see why anyone thinks mastina's early d1 reads are AI one way or the other.

I have a very long history with mastina and it is most certainly possible to read her off of her early play. She does have subtle tells. I don't actually scumread her at the moment, she just knows I don't like being townread early. Basically it was an inverse OMGUS vote.

[Bingle]

@Infi

Spoiler: The progression that made me think you're actually trying to read T3

VOTE: t3

Ok

Do you have a response to mastina?

Yes.

You don't have a response to mastina or?

see efforts to appear as town--but looking at them I don't actually see town.

I actually see no efforts to appear town, which is actually part of why I find him towny. He gives me similar vibes to where I played with town!him before, and said that the less he explains himself the more likely he is to be town.

please leave house be i will know if he is scum or town d2 thanks.

No. I poke people with sticks. That's what I do.

[Bingle]

T3 is scumreading mastina for something he JUST saw her do as town in a game all 3 of us just finished.

Counterpoint:

Given the presumption that T3 knows mastina's opener is NAI or town indicative, why does scum T3 fake that read in a lobby that knows mastina?

[Bingle]

The presumption being that T3, knowing that mastina's behavior is NAI and also that there is a playerlist overlap indicating that, chooses to emulate his towngame by faking a tunnel on mastina over said NAI behavior.

Alternatively:

This is far from T3's first game with me.

T3 is reacting in a similar way to mastina as he did in a recent game as town. Based on mastina knowing the alt and the assertion here that they've played together, presumably many times, T3's reaction to mastina in townstumps wasn't a blind reaction to not knowing mastina's style.

So, there's someone here who is going "You do this thing as town and I think it's scummy" at worst. And you're pushing him as that being a performative action that you explicitly know he does as town. Why?

[Bingle]

*You're pushing him as scum for that being

[Bingle]

Hmmm. Does Bingle normally spend time trying to deflate a wagon before it gains traction?

Only if it's on a player I don't think gets more readable when under pressure (i.e. Nancy or Gamma), but that's not actually what I'm doing here.

[Bingle]

T3 is scumreading mastina for something he JUST saw her do as town in a game all 3 of us just finished.

Spoiler: Contextually: Mastina and T3 in said game

Have I won yet?

Well you've won a townread.

VOTE: House

I'm struggling to get a hard grasp on most of the players but jjh, Moongrass, and Not_Mafia as town I feel pretty good about; I've no such townpings on House, NK15, or really anyone else who has posted post-role-PMs, honestly.

So let's take a stab at a readslist here.

DrippingGoofball
jjh927
Not_Mafia
Moongrass

cyrus62/KorVex
Gamma Emerald
Titus
nomnomnom

Mia and Maya Fey (NancyDrew/DKKoba Hydra)
Free Money Free Tea
Not Known 15
House

Town, no read yet, lean south of null right now.

mastina has gone straight in to her scum meta with her opening post.

My argument is not that T3 is town for calling mastina's post scummy. My argument is that House, given the context of FMFT having the thought that mastina's opening matches her scum meta as town, arguing that T3 arguing that mastina's post is scummy is scummy. I think T3 thinking mastina's opener is scummy is NAI.

[Bingle]

Bingle can you share some of that good shit you’re smoking?

No drugs, but I did bring enough scotch for the entire class.

I feel that it is important to note that I did in fact miss A50's doctor crumb but I am not hard pocketed by A50, so his summation of events for the scumteam was at best 50% accurate.

[Bingle]

If NorwegianboyEE doesn't flip scum, immediately eliminate me.

I'm

that

sure that Norwee is scum here.

This is a hard 1v1

.

I won't let you monopolize all the risk.

FUCKING I CAN'T FIND A WAY TO ADD GIFS TO MS WITHOUT GETTING AN APP ON PHONE

I got you.

[Bingle]

I'll ask a third time:

Why is T3 scum here when he has misread Mastina as town in the past?

This is House's answer, btw.

Already stated. It's an easy thing to duplicate since he's done it as town, which is what I suspect he's doing because of his unwillingness to accept the fact that posting early reads isn't some sort of magical scum tell for her.

He's invested in his narrative.

He hasn't really explained why T3 *would* go out of his way to duplicate NAI behavior as scum.


I'm looking forward to the Norwee/mastina fight.

[Bingle]

Bingle's pocketing game is real good.

[Bingle]

Mechanically speaking, I should be executed today.

Objectively wrong, but objectively wrong in a way that I’ve been low key encouraging.

[Bingle]

I think he may have been playing for time, knowing that I would have to come back sooner or later.

Duh.

When have I ever expressed an opinion on you before I was sure it was solid?

[Bingle]

Since we're throwing out irrelevant facts, nobody has stated why he WOULDN'T go out of his way to duplicate WHAT HE LITERALLY JUST DID AS TOWN as scum.

I mean… I’m fairly certain he would. I think that specific behavior is entirely NAI.

Cases:

1. T3town didn’t consider mastina’s meta and thinks early reads walls are scummy.
2. T3scum didn’t consider mastina’s meta and thinks early reads walls are scummy, thus mislimmable.
3. T3scum was concerned about his image and specifically faked something from a recent towngame to come across as natural in the hopes that one of the players from said game would recognize the act as having been from town him and thus defend him for it.

There are more I could list out, but I think both 1 and 2 are vastly more likely than three, and you’re proposing specifically three.

This is a hoofbeats->zebra situation.

I’m reasonably certain the push coming from you is genuine at this point, though, so

UNVOTE:

I’m rather interested in why mastina poked T3 over the push but never followed through.

[Bingle]

To be clear, I think that t3 would poke mastina for her reads walls as scum, not that T3 would poke mastina for her readswall to specifically appeal to the mirror of his behavior in Tstumps.

[Bingle]

A50 is functionally claiming Miller and asking to be linked as a claimed miller. He’s fundamentally misunderstanding the balance for a draft game, but I don’t think the misunderstanding is likely to be faked.

Basically, his argument is that we don’t want scum to have access to a roleblocker or strongman (which is true) and that liming him would prevent scum from accessing the roles in his pack (which is true).

The misunderstanding comes from the fact that draft mafia balance is functionally small town balance.

[Bingle]

Ah ok, so mafia has scum abilities. And A50 is claiming to have those particular scum abilities as town that mafia will lose access to if town!him is eliminated.

Not quite. A50 is claiming that he has abilities that are disproportionately powerful in scum's hands; they can still theoretically be used by town. (Sman can modify vig and roleblocker is utility for town as well as scum.)

If mafia chooses Sman over neighbor out of A50's pack, however, and then passes the pack to town, then the town player can tell us that a specific player has an Sman shot. We then have the avenue of WHY they chose Sman over neighbor to investigate and a known suspect should a doc protect ever fail, meaning that in order to obfuscate the SMan the scum team would have to link themselves together by passing the packs between solely themselves.

Additionally, the scumteam will presumably have seen 6/11 packs on D2, which means they will have the majority of the setup info and we can claim the composition of packs (or rather, the presence of specifically problematic roles in our packs).

[Bingle]

So far I am roughly at (groups in no particular order. I used the mod's player list):

Honouable Judge:

Almost50

The Jury:

House mastina Taly T3 NDMath

Pool of Suspects:

Dunn Flea Bingle Infinity Dwlee cyrus Momrangal/NorwEE

Talk to me about Mastina and Dunn.

[Bingle]

If you're town and grab one of them all the better

Which one would you suggest?

Probably the rb, since there are two strongmans and it can't be completely denied

Definitely the roleblocker. Using it N1 is a pretty strong move as it is unlikely scum will have access to a Sman to make the kill go through anyway and 90% of the investigatives can't be used N1.

[Bingle]

I’d prefer you talk about them in front of their backs. What about mastina’s play has earned a townread? What are your thoughts re: Dunn and the mason card claim?

[Bingle]

I still am strongly against claiming packs. It gives scum a lot of help since they can choose which pack they want to eliminate from the game by forcing that pack to be passed to the NK target. If they want they can also pass it to themselves to take a strong role away from town.

If anything would help you get more into the game let me know

Not how it works, btw.

Scum kill resolves before pack rotation.

Via wiki: Pack passing is executed after night actions, all other actions are resolved using natural action resolution.

[Bingle]

I'll be claiming actions at minimum

One shot investigation roles should be claimed the day after use, preferably in the format of “I investigated player x last night, claim.”

[Bingle]

But seriously, where is Mastina?

Mood.

[Bingle]

Infinity feels less on town than she did in DNC. I can’t remember if she was in the DNC where I was scum or town though. Norwee, thoughts?

[Bingle]

Obv not on. Fucking autocorrect

[Bingle]

@taly Thoughts on this? Other can answer too

PP's favorite Penguin is the jackass penguin.

[Bingle]

I just realized I'm not actually voting mastina.

VOTE: mastina

[Bingle]

the push on Norwee looked genuine

Really?

It seemed pretty inflated to me. I also didn't like the push on T3 that fizzled out or the response to me being indignant at being townread being an excuse about the difficulty of forming reads instead of, you know, not giving a shit. I feel like mastina as town is less apologetic about townreading me there.

[Bingle]

@ Bingle: what happened between those posts that made you decide to vote there?

But seriously, where is Mastina?

Mood.

the push on Norwee looked genuine

Really?

It seemed pretty inflated to me. I also didn't like the push on T3 that fizzled out or the response to me being indignant at being townread being an excuse about the difficulty of forming reads instead of, you know, not giving a shit. I feel like mastina as town is less apologetic about townreading me there.

[Bingle]

I'm also against claiming packs

Fullclaiming packs is dumb.

Claiming specifically the anti town roles that were in your opening pack on D2 is good.

[Bingle]

Someone remind me why we're making house answer every question three times.

Something something bureaucracy something triplicate.

[Bingle]

I’m refraining from commenting on Taly’s push to see how Norwee reacts, but I definitely want to come back to it.

[Bingle]

A50 is low-key lurking out my push and I'm trying to not derail like other times. And I'm like the only one on him other than himself rn :I

Is he though? Like… what exactly do you think monkey should be doing that he isn’t?

[Bingle]

Flea the Magician
Taly

Almost50
Dwlee99
Dunnstral

cyrus62
Bingle
House

NDMath


Infinity 324


T3



Momrangal/NorwegianboyEE

Ngl, I don’t really hate this list. Or at least the middle bit of it. I don’t agree with it, but I can see where the reads originate. That doesn’t really make me less concerned that you’re scum.

I will point out that you not being in thread due to the RL absence doesn’t really fix the lack of town vibes while you’re here, but this could just be a case of you being too checked out to bleed town. Talk to me about Taly, because I feel like he has significant scum equity if you’re town. Also, if you have a game or two that you think shows norwee scum I’d appreciate it, because I’m pretty sure he’s told me his scum game is easy to catch before and I don’t remember ever seeing it.

[Bingle]

Why did you feel the need to point out this?
Also, does this count as a "townslip"?

Because the mechanic working the two different ways has a real impact on how scum will play and how town will play.

If pass -> kill then scum can get rid of their own packs to obfuscate what they had, town has to worry that they can be killed to prevent accountability for what is in their packs, and scum can get rid of an annoying town voice while simultaneously taking their pack for themselves.

Since it is kill -> pass, the scum can't kill a person without also getting rid of their pack, meaning that someone who is v towny might not necessarily be the nightkill if they've outed their pack as garbage. Like say, you. Additionally, town can be as tightlipped as we want about what was in our packs on D1 because if our pack is around on D2 we also have to be by default.

Why I would out this as opposed to hoping scum would miss it altogether is simple: It also informs town's NA. Any scumteam that is looking deep into pack mechanics to inform the passing of packs is going to figure it out for themselves. Someone with a protective role might not realize that you're a shitty doc target because if town scum isn't going to want to prioritize the elimination of your pack and if scum you're not going to get nightkilled. The information shared has a benefit to town more so than scum, so I share it.

As far as infinity being town based on not knowing that's how it works: a little town equity but not enough for a solid read. I doubt the scumteam has already started discussing which packs they want to shop for, so they probably haven't dug too deeply into NA mechanics. This is less true if specifically Dwlee or maybe mastina is scum (mastina is absent enough that I don't know how much strategizing she'd do) but that really only gives me Dwlee/Infi isn't a likely scumpair. Otherwise, I could see infinity not knowing how the night actions resolve as scum too.

[Bingle]

Well trying to find scum would be good. His last catch-up was a nothing burger.

I agree with you that A50 not looking into motivations is scum indicative. I disagree that A50 hasn't been looking into motivations. Him pushing me over the infinity thing I just responded to, 491, and 653 all felt like town A50 trying to solve things. He hasn't put enough effort in that I'm as solid on his alignment as I usually am, but you accurately giving a description of his scumplay and then continuing the push despite me not seeing that specific behavior is something that makes me think I need to take a closer look.

As far as nothingburger posts from A50, those come from either alignment. When reading him, you pretend they don't exist at all. There's nothing about his fluff to content ratio that's ever been readable in my experience, and I have a pretty good record when it comes to parsing the monkey.

I do think his claim is town indicative from him, as that is exactly the style of setup misunderstanding monkeytown would reach and I don't think he's likely to have been bullshitting that. OTOH, I can see 497 coming from him to get me to defuse the lim if indeed he was bluffing the mistake.

This is why I tend to hold my A50 cards close to my chest until I'm sure. I'm not even sure this is worth posting since it probably just muddies the water, but A50 is not a strong enough townread that I would try to veto the lim.

[Bingle]

Bingle? Do you want to vote a Norwee?

Not really, no. I don't really see what makes Norwee scum here and the push doesn't feel natural.

[Bingle]

The amount here is high though

That's what I'm saying:

This is completely irrelevant to his alignment. A50 will fluff as much as A50 wants to fluff, regardless of PM. Trying to use fluff:content ratio with him is about as useful as trying to read me based on whether my mechtalk is on point.

[Bingle]

That's how you have to read everyone my dude

Not true, btw. The hallmark of a truly good scum player is that their intent is very similar to their townplay.

For example, LLD wants to lead the town as scum and she also wants to lead the town as town. For those players, you have to rely on gamestate and results, not intent.

[Bingle]

I want at L-1/intent to hammer/whatever the person to claim any unique cards (and mason) in their hand. I don't think there's benefit to hearing the non-unique ones.

This really doesn't matter, tbh.

[Bingle]

Wanting to lead town isn't intent, it's play style.

Setting yourself up to be the voice town is listening to is 100% the intent behind some posts. The point being when that is the intent, the way you read the person is by looking at what they actually achieve and how they compare to the rest of list.

Also, to Dwlee, we didn't catch LLD in unwnd's game because she was angling for mislims (because she actually wasn't given that her strategy was hardbus), we caught her because there were other people who were townier and she ended up in the PoE. She only became scummy AFTER her elimination became inevitable.

Trying to read solely on intent doesn't work with stronger players. You also have to weigh the results of their actions and the way the game as a whole moves around them.

[Bingle]

I'm prtty sold on Norwee scum here, honestly.

Why?

[Bingle]

He might have thrown a reads list together but he still seems steadily focused on just continuing to self-vote and coast.

I'm aware of the fallacy of trying to point to a lack of something, but given that I just pointed to what I perceive to be the presence of the thing you're saying isn't there... Do that.

[Bingle]

Can you rephrase this? I don't get what you're saying.

You're saying that A50 isn't trying to solve the game.

I pointed out where I think he IS in 806.

Your response was "A50 isn't trying to solve the game".

[Bingle]

Bingle I'm not happy that you seem to think Mastina/I must contain scum.

I don't really. I think both of you individually are scummy, and that you are significantly less scummy if mastina is scum.

I think mastina is scummy. Why do you think she's towny?

I think your "mastina isn't the only one lockscumming Norwee so it's not a 1v1" is v pockety and manipulative. I also dislike how you took up the crusade and didn't let mastina elaborate on her reasons to lockscum Norwee. I also get the distinct impression from your posting that you're trying to build a narrative of you being reasonable and Norwee not being reasonable that comes across as skeevy.

I wouldn't be particularly surprised to see Norwee flip scum, but I'm really not sold on it at all and the whole righteous crusade he's obvscum stuff coming from you/mastina/flea doesn't really help that. Hell at least out of the three of you you have reasons, but they seem disproportionate to the strength of your push. (reasons being, if I'm parsing you correctly: a shallow game entrance, him seeing scum motivation in your hop on, insincerity in his push on you)

[Bingle]

Flea can you point at what posts made you go from

See I've caught ScumWee pretty early before, and I'm not feeling this vibe...

to

I'm prtty sold on Norwee scum here, honestly.

[Bingle]

Because someone is going to ask inevitably, these are all the Taly posts I think are scummy. I'm conflicted here because I think that Taly has been towny in every interaction that isn't with Norwee or Mastina.

Spoiler:

This doesn't read sincere and I'm getting frustrated.

Norwee has a point here that being frustrated with a scumread being insincere is pretty meh. Of course scum are going to twist what you say. It doesn't really feel like Taly is treating Norwee as a scumread at all.

Why does one of us have to be scum? Why is a town led wagon on you so far from conceivable?

And if you think we are TvS, what are you doing right now to determine you do not mislim? And what if a mislim occurs then, the other is confscum?

This is really pockety towards mastina. I don't see any attempt from Taly to actually read her, but here he's pretty actively trying to paint Norwee thinking a wagon on him could be scumdriven as scummy. Not to mention all of these are leading questions that don't really have a towny response to them. It feels more like Taly is trying to paint himself as being reasonable and considering things than actually being reasonable.

So I really need convincing if you think Taly/Mastina/T3 ever exists here.

The "there's five people voting you thing" is a bullshit argument, but this line takes the cake out of this post: "Convince me I'm scum" is like the height of performative posting.

[Bingle]

I think they're reasonable coming from House. Not exceptionally town, but it feels consistent with House's logical progression.

I independently think T3 is town for reasons I can't go over at the moment.

[Bingle]

Once more with feeling: claim absolutely nothing about your roles until D2, at which point you claim any roles from your ORIGINAL pack that don’t have a town use. This is not a discussion.

UNVOTE:

I’m super disengaged, but that looks like townstina so I should probably reset here.

[Bingle]

VOTE: Infinity

I haven't gotten any town vibes here all game, and there's a couple of places that seem overdone. The reaction to cyrus seems disproportionate and the 'defense' of Norwee seems pretty half assed.

I think T3 continuing to try and not just shutting down under pressure is likely town indicative.

[Bingle]

Perhaps we should stop talking about roles and just focus on individual reads

Yes. Yes we should.

[Bingle]

Spoiler:

A50 could be scum, I feel like it's mostly a matter of the people who know a50 best and mastina/bingle think he's town so.

I feel similar about norwee tbh. I feel like at this point in the day I'm ok just limming anyone outside of my townreads because I don't think I'm gonna get a good scumread.

Do you townread norwee?

All these wagons are meh to bad

VOTE: dwlee

I'm gonna take a look a norwee's scum games. I was under the impression he just does nothing as scum.

If his scum game is at all comparable to his play here, I could be ok voting him. He still feels quite towny to me but mastina is very town and very confident, I have a lot of townreads I feel comfortable with, and this game is gonna go nowhere otherwise.

Mastina can you give a summary of how you feel norwee tends to play as town and how he's playing here?

For me, it's basically: he tends to act as a spectator and gives his thoughts as the game goes along, showing his solving process along the way. He doesn't say everything that he's thinking but you get the impression he's thinking behind the scenes.

Here he seems to be playing pretty similarly to me, although the spectator narrative isn't really the same because he's being pushed. Still, the part about not laying out his whole thought process is definitely there.

Is there something I'm missing here?

Norwee's scumgame kinda looks like his towngame tbh, except less

Norwee do you want to help me start a wagon?

Mastina and taly are off the table though.

I'm a sucker for town cases, also the way he's playing feels like bored town trying to find a productive angle.

The other option is that I vote you.

Why is scum!norwee not using me as a liferaft here?

@Norwee: progression that feels halfassed.

[Bingle]

Spoiler:

Jesus Christ don't claim roles now scum can roleblock you and give you a fake guilty

mod said only 65 roles are in play 13 x 5 = 65 and when I look at the wiki it said 1 rb you realize scum infinity would have realized I stated I had a investigated role more then once . But shouted out the role blocker after I said I was going check them to try and set up a chance to say a fake guilty.

Dude you didn't specify what your investigative did, most investigatives don't give you a fake guilty when you get RBed

I mean everyone was like a50 is helping town with that play

I never fucking said that

Check me all you want, just don't claim your cards. Not that hard

Posts that feel disproportionate.

[Bingle]

I like this post from flea, and I think it's a mechanically sound strategy for everyone.

A mechanically sound strategy is making the best call based on the pack you have and not dreaming the thread with pointless mech discussion.

Grand sweeping strategies just give scum a roadmap to play around town’s night actions.

[Bingle]

cyrus, please listen. I think Infinity has a good and very strong meta case for her being town.

Lynx?

[Bingle]

Full accountability for scum roles picked post n1 unless scum passes to scum and the disproportionate amount of utility of power in towns hands.

Also stop rolefishing and scumhunt.

[Bingle]

EVERYBODY has a PR. I'm not in here asking people WHAT their roles ARE.

Everyone has access to different prs. Discussing what individuals should do is necessarily information about the options they have, and thus bad.

[Bingle]

Not ignoring dwlee and math, just not responding while mobile

[Bingle]

I agree with Bingle that those posts feel weirdly disproportional but I need more words I think for the progression post. I don't really get what is half-assed about it.

Spoiler:

A50 could be scum, I feel like it's mostly a matter of the people who know a50 best and mastina/bingle think he's town so.

I feel similar about norwee tbh. I feel like at this point in the day I'm ok just limming anyone outside of my townreads because I don't think I'm gonna get a good scumread.

Do you townread norwee?

All these wagons are meh to bad

VOTE: dwlee

I'm gonna take a look a norwee's scum games. I was under the impression he just does nothing as scum.

If his scum game is at all comparable to his play here, I could be ok voting him. He still feels quite towny to me but mastina is very town and very confident, I have a lot of townreads I feel comfortable with, and this game is gonna go nowhere otherwise.

Mastina can you give a summary of how you feel norwee tends to play as town and how he's playing here?

For me, it's basically: he tends to act as a spectator and gives his thoughts as the game goes along, showing his solving process along the way. He doesn't say everything that he's thinking but you get the impression he's thinking behind the scenes.

Here he seems to be playing pretty similarly to me, although the spectator narrative isn't really the same because he's being pushed. Still, the part about not laying out his whole thought process is definitely there.

Is there something I'm missing here?

Norwee's scumgame kinda looks like his towngame tbh, except less

Norwee do you want to help me start a wagon?

Mastina and taly are off the table though.

I'm a sucker for town cases, also the way he's playing feels like bored town trying to find a productive angle.

The other option is that I vote you.

Why is scum!norwee not using me as a liferaft here?

@Norwee: progression that feels halfassed.

Spoiler: Commentary spoilered for readability

This starts off with I'd be willing to vote Norwee, call specifically for townreads on Norwee, instead vote someone else because "these wagons are bad". She continues into a meta defense of Norwee and says she'll look further into his meta to respond to a request that she vote Norwee. You know, that person she's willing to vote and explicitly not townreading. Her conclusion? That Norwee scum and Norwee town look similar, and her meta defense of someone she's still not townreading and willing to vote is pretty garbage-y. She STILL doesn't vote the Norwee in question here.

Infinity then reaches out to Norwee to build a wagon somewhere else, but not on the people pushing him. Note, still no townread. At this point, she has a townread on Norwee by virtue of

I want to flip a50, dwlee, flea, or house, since I have various shades of townreads on everyone else.

At this point, the only thing Infinity has mentioned that she hasn't contradicted is that Norwee had an early townread on her. She continues this into "Why isn't norwee using me as a liferaft" to which the obvious answer is none of the things she's done have any chance of actually helping Norwee dodge the lim.

Note, there are actually things Norwee is doing to dodge the lim, like continue solving and generally putting more effort into the game now that it's progressed some.

Teal deer: Infinity doesn't look like she's trying to derail the lim on Norwee (or even push all that hard for an alternative, although she has a list of four names she'd rather flip) but it does look like she's trying really fucking hard to not be on that lim herself.

[Bingle]

@Math

Snip

There were a few things I found town with this post. First of all, the self meta is NAI, but fairly accurate. It does show that there is a logical progression behind her tunnel on Norwee, which is a good sign. Secondly, the sentence 'anyone who doesn't see that this is my towngame is a fucking idiot because this is painfully transparently my towngame' is unironically town indicative for mastina. It's not something that she tends to think while scum, and even if I don't agree that she'd been exceptionally town up to that point it is more likely than not that SHE believes that which is the important thing. The fact she assumes my "I don't hate this readslist" post was an agreement with the reads instead of a "This looks consistent with what I'd expect the you making the pushes you're making would think" combined with the appeal to sheep her on Norwee points to an actual desire to see this Norwee wagon through. If scum bussing, mastina would be happy that I seem to want to table the 1v1 for a day there, and probably wouldn't be pushing as hard as she is to continue it.

The Taly read is overexplained in a way that made me feel she was actually trying to get me to think about things. I don't agree with the logic (particularly, the concept that Taly scum wouldn't be surprised about a townread when she supposedly defaults to scumreads on him) but I can follow it, and it doesn't need to be right to come from town.

In fact, one of the biggest towntells from mastina is that while I can see why she's thinking what she's thinking, I don't really agree that the conclusions are accurate. That makes me think she's naturally working through thoughts to reach conclusions instead of starting from an informed perspective. What did you not like about mastina's posting in that period?

[Bingle]

Spoiler:

A50 could be scum, I feel like it's mostly a matter of the people who know a50 best and mastina/bingle think he's town so.

I feel similar about norwee tbh. I feel like at this point in the day I'm ok just limming anyone outside of my townreads because I don't think I'm gonna get a good scumread.

Do you townread norwee?

Townreads: mastina, dunn, cyrus, NDMath, taly, T3 somewhat

You know, that person she's willing to vote and explicitly not townreading.

I'm gonna take a look a norwee's scum games. I was under the impression he just does nothing as scum.

If his scum game is at all comparable to his play here, I could be ok voting him.

He still feels quite towny to me

but mastina is very town and very confident, I have a lot of townreads I feel comfortable with, and this game is gonna go nowhere otherwise.

??

Yeah, it's like I was commenting on a progression and at the point I was talking about you were explicitly not townreading him. The townread you're expressing there comes a full 6 pages after the progression I was talking about ended.

[Bingle]

I think taly is obvtown this game tbh

Norwee too kinda lol

For everyone else: I soulread norwee as town in divide and conquer, and not many other players were townreading him there. I think I've correctly townread him in at least one game I've spectated of his, but that's it. He looks very town to me here, but my read on him isn't to the same level it was in divide and conquer, and honestly mastina is making me doubt my read a bit. I might look at a couple of his scumgames because I was under the impression his scumgame was a lot less active/content-focused than this.

It's cool how this ignores the sequential posts 10 pages later where you literally talk about why Norwee is not a town read and then list 6 names that are your town reads and don't include Norwee, which is the basis for me saying that during the progression starting from those posts Norwee is explicitly not a townread. It's also cool how the post literally one before that one is me, quoting those two posts in which you make explicit that you're not townreading Norwee.

Spoiler:

A50 could be scum, I feel like it's mostly a matter of the people who know a50 best and mastina/bingle think he's town so.

I feel similar about norwee tbh. I feel like at this point in the day I'm ok just limming anyone outside of my townreads because I don't think I'm gonna get a good scumread.

Do you townread norwee?

Townreads: mastina, dunn, cyrus, NDMath, taly, T3 somewhat

You know, that person she's willing to vote and explicitly not townreading.

I'm gonna take a look a norwee's scum games. I was under the impression he just does nothing as scum.

If his scum game is at all comparable to his play here, I could be ok voting him.

He still feels quite towny to me

but mastina is very town and very confident, I have a lot of townreads I feel comfortable with, and this game is gonna go nowhere otherwise.

??

Yeah, it's like I was commenting on a progression and at the point I was talking about you were explicitly not townreading him. The townread you're expressing there comes a full 6 pages after the progression I was talking about ended.

[Bingle]

@bingle My feelings around the slot never changed though? I'm not sure why I left him off my townreads list, but I'm not sure why you're acting baffled that I wouldn't want to elim someone who I expressed at multiple points I felt was town.

A50 could be scum

, I feel like it's mostly a matter of the people who know a50 best and mastina/bingle think he's town so.

I feel similar about norwee

tbh. I feel like at this point in the day I'm ok just limming anyone outside of my townreads because I don't think I'm gonna get a good scumread.

Do you townread norwee?

The post literally after the one with the bolding is the one where you list your townreads.

[Bingle]

You don't imply a townread on A50 there. You outright state that you're sheeping other people's townreads on A50 without having a read of your own.

Regardless of the fact that your townread list (Which includes T3, explained 10 posts earlier as "I think I might be townreading T3") explicitly leaves both A50 and Norwee off of it in the post after you say you would be willing to eliminate anyone except your townreads. This, you know, implies you'd be willing to eliminate Norwee. And that STILL doesn't address the entire point of the case, which is that even given evidence that you're wrong on Norwee there's no actual willingness to vote him, no actual defense of the slot despite him being under pressure, and nothing that in any way indicates an attempt to actually interact with the wagon meaningfully. Your entire interplay there looks like you want to be off wagon for the Norwee elimination mastina was pushing for.

[Bingle]

Regardless of ee flip I still scum read infinity.

I think infinity scum spews ee town, fwiw.

[Bingle]

@not Infinity: What do you make of Infinity's reaction to my pressure?

@Dwlee specifically: what was your reaction to your promised reread?

[Bingle]

By day 2 there will be 44 left I would think.

Assuming 11 alive. If we have no kill tonight it's 48.

A50 isn't locktown but I'm not interested in pursuing him today. If I say he's locktown you can take that read to the bank.

[Bingle]

Eh. I’m not a huge fan of flea leaning into the “I’m repeating my play from last game” gimmick.

I’m more than a little concerned that no one is responding to my infinity push, and I don’t know how to take that.

[Bingle]

Also if Bingle was scum with Flea here he would say he's going to hammer Flea if they get to E-1.



(Inside joke)

VOTE: Vanderscamp

Am I doing it right?

[Bingle]

Eh. I’m not a huge fan of flea leaning into the “I’m repeating my play from last game” gimmick.

I’m more than a little concerned that no one is responding to my infinity push, and I don’t know how to take that.

I responded, I think infinity is town

I mean... You said that you think infinity is town, but you didn't really respond to the push. If infinity is town here, I'm tunneled and town you would want to talk me down from that. I'm looking for outside perspectives because I see her behavior as damning and I want to know why other people don't.

[Bingle]

I reread A50, btw. He’s locktown.

[Bingle]

I guess. Don’t feel really strongly either way about this flip, tbh.

VOTE: flea

[Bingle]

I investigated Bingle last night, claim.

I was untargetable.

Now is the point that we should claim any disproportionately scum oriented roles that were in our opening packs like commuter, multitasking, strongman, ascetic.

My pack had two commutes.

[Bingle]

Dunnstral -> A50
Bingle -> Dwlee
Infinity 324 -> House
Almost50 -> mastina
Dwlee99 -> Titus
House -> T3
mastina -> NDMath
Titus -> Norwee
T3 -> Dunn
NDMath -> Bingle
NorwegianboyEE -> Infinity

[Bingle]

Bingle if Infinity is saying the truth then you were wrong about Infinity.
I don’t think they would claim a guilty on their teammate here.

I'm open to reconsidering Infinity, although I don't consider claiming a guilty to be locktowning here immediately.

[Bingle]

I have a guilty (disloyal checker)

This is very nearly the correct format for claiming results.

The correct format for claiming results is "I have a guilty/innocent on [Player]." Anyone who investigates should use this format.

We want reactions before we actually know what type of guilty/innocent it is. For example, if Housescum performed the NK, he would have to worry about whether this was a disloyal checker, gunsmith, or tracker, all of which would get false positives in different ways.

[Bingle]

Claiming a fake guilty on the beginning of day 2 seems wack though.

I don't think we should be having this conversation before House arrives to talk about why there's a guilty on him.

[Bingle]

1553 is how the packs passed, btw. Whatever cyrus and flea had is gone.

[Bingle]

Ok, i’m impatient. I ask all the questions.
I’ll shut up then.

Nah, it's a conversation I 100% endorse having, I just want to wait to see the reaction before we do.

I also wish I'd seen the guilty before responding to Math.

[Bingle]

Alright, masons.

Dunn either picked or passed mason.

If anyone other than Dunn had mason in their opening pack, they should claim so now. If they chose mason, it will show up on their corpse if they die. If they did not chose mason, it will not. That means we can narrow down who can have picked mason. A50 will know tonight whether Dunn chose or did not choose mason, at which point A50 can choose or not choose mason. The day before XLO, we can work backwards to find out who actually chose the masons and have conftown or a mech 1v1. Mason should be chosen by N3 at the latest, preferably by tonight if there's not a pressing need to pick something else (for example N2 investigative).

[Bingle]

Maybe i’m being dumb but why would we care about masons today? Isn’t it a bit early?

We care if the second mason exists. Otherwise the card is a VT.

The game just ended, so I can explain T3. Call it gut, but T3 here doesn't feel at all like T3 in Situation Room. In that game, T3 scum just kind of rolled over and died when it became likely he was a defacto elim, and here he's continuously been solvey and active. Additionally, the cases/pushes on him have been reminiscent of those from both Isises and TBones and Townstumps, which makes me think he's town.

[Bingle]

We care if the second mason exists. Otherwise the card is a VT.

This probably didn't help anything.

Basically, knowing if there is a potential masonry is a good thing because it prevents fakeclaiming shenanigans later, but also obscures the identity of the mason enough that scum isn't likely to be able to hit a mason blindshooting and so won't prioritize killing there. This increases reliability of a late game mason pair claim which drastically improves town EV.

[Bingle]

I find it more likely, but not impossible Bingle took ascetic.

Eh. I can avoid the commute tonight and be targetable to prove I'm not ascetic, but the mechanical 1 scum in three people is spicy for tomorrow.

[Bingle]

I mean... Not much to go on about.

One of Titus and Math is lying and it's not worth pursuing before corroboration tomorrow. If I don't get a commute tonight it's Math. If I do get a commute tonight it's Titus.

I actually probably will take the commute tonight if it's an option thinking about it further, so I'm not worth investigating. Same with Dwlee and Norwee. We have a very small pool to hunt in for tomorrow, and a guilty outside of that probably puts us in autowin.

[Bingle]

I don't see why any of this is worth worrying about today?

We can solve the mechanical 1v1 tomorrow, and if I get mislimmed to net a scum lim on D4 that's still fine.

[Bingle]

There's a counterargument to that logic, but again....

Why would we not wait to solve this until tomorrow? When we have more complete information?

[Bingle]

I just want to hear what NDMath used to target Bingle and why. Then I'll be ready to end the day.

There's no reason not to have this information claimed as the role is spent, but it's largely irrelevant to the issue of the mech 1v1v1.

I will say that Titus' reaction here is pretty strongly town and I'm leaning ND scum in the three of us, but scum literally can't kill the corroborating evidence. They just take the commute and live to tomorrow. We will necessarily have a 1v1 tomorrow.

I still want to see House's reaction to the guilty, on the off chance it's informative.

[Bingle]

Laying out the logic is important in case I die.

I mean... Once I agreed that it was a mechanical guilty it meant scum would have to kill both of us tonight to save NDmath, and if scum I'd talked myself into a corner.

On the other hand, it's far more likely that I would have taken the commuter as scum than let Dwlee have the role that has a potential to be used against scum, and so the occams if I were scum is that ND was roleblocked by scum and I knew that, not that I took an ascetic.

[Bingle]

[quote="In post 1618, Titus"][/quote]

That's what I said. There's no reason not to claim what your investigation was once you've used it.

OTOH, if ND isn't lying, him claiming today or tomorrow doesn't really matter, because if for some reason he get's NK'd he'd still flip as the investigative he used and we'd know that he used said investigative on me and it was unsuccessful.

We can't possibly lose the information if he's telling the truth and he's already going to be in a 1v1 if he's lying.

[Bingle]

Why do you not consider NDMath could be lying?

If ND is nightkilled he wouldn't have been scum and thus wouldn't be lying?

The presupposition of him being NK'd means he'd be town.

I think he likely is lying, but we don't really lose information if he is and can burn that bridge when we get to it.

[Bingle]

There's no reason not to claim what your investigation was once you've used it.

Once you've used it refers to both the night action and the baiting an incorrect resultant claim, btw.

[Bingle]

I mean... Whoever is scum misplayed their claim royally, but I'll take it.

I'm fully aware I'm probably the lim for tomorrow assuming infinity isn't fakeclaiming scum, which sucks, but it nets us a scum lim on D4 which puts us in a pretty great position. None of me/Titus/ND get investigated or shot tonight because for town it's a waste of an action and for scum it's a kill that potentially removes their ability to WIFOM the 1v1v1 further.

[Bingle]

Investigating whether NDMath is lying today gives our protectives and investigates better aiming.

I mean... Our protectives and investigatives should be targeting in a pool of {Dunnstral, Infinity*, A50, mastina, T3)

*protectives only based on a presumptive House scumflip

Norwee/Dwlee/myself all potentially have the ability to fuck with investigations if we're scum tonight. Titus/ND/Myself are all likely resolved in the next two day phases due to claims. All five are unlikely to be killed because of the potential of a missed kill on people with commuters and the potential of a kill preventing them from getting a free mislim.

Corroboration on the lie won't be forthcoming because scum can't afford to link their last two players together this early.

[Bingle]

Surface level pack passing analysis looks slightly bad for mastina and slightly good for A50, btw. I don't think that is anything more than vague circumstantial evidence at this point though.

[Bingle]

@Bingle, what did Infinity claim and why is it relevant?

Infinity claimed the guilty on House.

[Bingle]

@Bingle, What happens if you and NDMath are scum together?

Town presumably gets multiple innocent results out of the investigations, there're at least two scum lims in the first 5 days and scum has very little chance of scum bouncing back through the spiderweb of night actions.

Same as if you and ND are both scum, which would be hilarious.

[Bingle]

I'm not interested in giving NDMath another day to make up their claim.

I agree that there's absolutely no reason it shouldn't come now. I don't think it being delayed until tomorrow is likely to get us less information, but it is technically correct to get the claim here as if he's fakeclaiming the counterclaim could theoretically be held by town House or someone who is NK'd tonight.

[Bingle]

Dunnstral -> A50 (Mason)
Bingle -> Dwlee (Commute x2)
Infinity 324 -> House (Disloyal Checker)
Almost50 -> mastina (RB/SMan/SMan/Neighbor/Vanilla)
Dwlee99 -> Titus (Unclaimed)
House -> T3 (Unclaimed)
mastina -> NDMath (Unclaimed)
Titus -> Norwee (Commute)
T3 -> Dunn (Unclaimed)
NDMath -> Bingle (Commute, RB)
NorwegianboyEE -> Infinity (Unclaimed)

Still want specifically commute, SMan, RB, and ascetic claims for pack tracking.

Also, mason and disloyal checker, although I understand if we don't do mason based on the additional scrutiny I'm under rn.

[Bingle]

^We don't need that info, as the important thing is tracing. For example, if a RB on an investigative fails to get claimed we know one of the packs that had an RB has passed through scum hands and we can work backwards to figure out who could be that scumblocker. This is more about future accountability of actions than anything immediate.

[Bingle]

We should also claim the scum utility roles we had in our opening packs for later accountability. That means scum only ever has one role that isn't potentially traceable to them.

[Bingle]

Also would like to at least get a post from mastina and House.

[Bingle]

And Dunn. Apparently he hasn't checked in today either.

[Bingle]

Also, I want Mastina to take the Vanilla card (from originality A50's pack). They are incriminated from bingle scum as well as the deck pass, and forcing the two strongmans to be taken N4 and N5 is just better anyway.

If mastina thinks she can get mileage out of Neighbor I'd actually prefer that, as it proves she didn't take SMan tonight should anyone else ever pick neighbor.

[Bingle]

So he can be ascetic while committing the kill, since commuter typically means you can't do anything else that night. (Granted it's not on the open draft wiki page so this may be incorrect)

This is correct, commuter cannot perform the kill. Me having picked ascetic over commuter N1 would most definitely imply that I was scum and that either I was passing my pack to a scumbuddy or that I was the only one on my team trusted to make the kill that night.

Given that I'm not scum... Kind of a moo point.

[Bingle]

And if it’s SvS as Bingle seemed paranoid it could be then we still take it.

Not particularly, no. If it's S/S we'll figure that out if we get to endgame with mechanical clears that make Infinity necessarily scum.

The reason I wanted a slowroll from the one investigative with no false positive result is two fold:

First, I misread Infinity's claim and originally thought she'd said loyal checker.

Second, if House thinks he can maybe save himself he might spew actual NA results. For example, if House made the kill last night that means that psychologist/detective results are more/less useful and House who thinks that Infinity might have a tracker guilty could 100% try to bullshit a way around the tracker guilty by saying he used a power role on cyrus.

If I keep pushing people to claim the negative utility roles they passed will that actually happen or am I just shouting into the wind?

[Bingle]

If I keep pushing people to claim the negative utility roles they passed will that actually happen or am I just shouting into the wind?

Want me to claim the rest of my roles?

Only those that are more powerful in scums hands than towns hands: commuter ascetic roleblocker sman. If you’re scum the information is unreliable and if you’re town we don’t gain anything by outing other roles to scum.

Also context is key for that second post. I was waiting until after you’d responded to explain why town infinity would want to claim “investigative” instead of “disloyal checker” when outing a result on you. In that hypothetical situation, (which was already impossible), you would necessarily be scum.

[Bingle]

I had none either

Given the presumptive lim of house you should fullclaim what you sent tbh. I’d say you should go last, but given the complete lack of overlap between what you’ve claimed and what everyone else should claim that’s unnecessary.

[Bingle]

mastina, if I die today, I hope you at least remember my posts on this page... because you'll be getting Infinity's cards if I'm eliminated.

Not how it works. The passing of packs is already resolved, we just don’t know what’s in our new ones. The pack infinity sent will go to the grave with you assuming you’re the lim today.

OTOH if you’re town infinity is necessarily scum, so at least you have that as a consolation.

[Bingle]

I had none either

Given the presumptive lim of house you should fullclaim what you sent tbh. I’d say you should go last, but given the complete lack of overlap between what you haven’t claimed and what everyone else should claim that’s unnecessary.

FTFM

[Bingle]

N2 tracker is unique if anyone wants to cc.

[Bingle]

Investigative. Gets a guilty on players who can kill but have not done so.

[Bingle]

No I know that. I mean what is the whole card cause "psychologist" isn't in the pack.

Presumably #63, 1-shot psychologist considering the only other psychologist is novice and wouldn’t be able to act. More importantly, though given a lack of cc for either of infinity’s claims the House lim probably goes through without a cc, so even if he is lying about having had that option a cc doesn’t net us any value and does give scum extra room to work.

[Bingle]

I used a commute N1. I lied about sending Dwlee a commute for the dual reasons of preventing scum from fucking with the investigation I'd sent Dwlee, knowing that compared to everything else in the pack it was obvious.

I did take the commute Math sent me but did not use it, because who the fuck would have shot me last night.

[Bingle]

Mastina took one night1.

Not actually what mastina claimed yesterday. She claimed she'd taken a killing role N1 and would be taking an SMan from A50's pack.

[Bingle]

Dual reasons of protecting the investigate I sent Dwlee and as a reaction test, I meant to say.

BTW, I'm pretty sure Titus is town here. I don't think scum Titus is this blind as to the town reason to lie about whether Dwlee could commute last night, and the push seems like she genuinely thinks it's going to go through.

Also...

[Bingle]

I used a commute N1. I lied about sending Dwlee a commute for the dual reasons of preventing scum from fucking with the investigation I'd sent Dwlee, knowing that compared to everything else in the pack it was obvious.

I did take the commute Math sent me but did not use it, because who the fuck would have shot me last night.

Yeah no.

Titus, think for a second. I had already sent the pack to Dwlee without a commute in it before I claimed I'd sent a commute to Dwlee. Unless I am scum with exactly Dwlee, I knew the lie would be apparent today. What does scum me gain from doing this?

[Bingle]

As a matter of fact, I will not be taking the Vanilla as I already took a killing role to deny it from scum (I initially was planning to take one of the other abilities but when I noticed the killing role I had to opt for it for the denial to scum, regrettably), so taking one of the strongmans actually makes more sense.

Mastina's D2 claim, btw.

[Bingle]

And you decided for whatever reason to not come clean when it was exposed that someone had to be lying?

Yup. For one, it wouldn't have helped anything to have this conversation yesterday rather than today (None of the people involved were the one who had been guiltied and thus not in any immediate danger as a result of my lie) and coming clean would necessarily have made Dwlee's investigation more prone to interference.

I DID point out that we should wait until all of the facts came to light, but clearing up the situation would have done nothing useful yesterday, and might potentially have stopped a useful investigation on mastina.

[Bingle]

I was aiming it as a roleblocker, so yes, I was making sure bingle wasn't performing the kill

If dunn did indeed target me, this logic checks out. Unfortunately, it's pretty unlikely we can corroborate that claim at this point and I think it's likely Dunn knows that if he's scum.

[Bingle]

Penny in the air…

[Bingle]

Yea I got has a gun and I'm fivehead

Can confirm both that I gave Dwlee a gunsmith and that this was literally the worst application of his power possible. I think scum would have been more careful about claims, so this is similar to Dunn. Probably means town, and given I was already leaning that way I'm not really going to question that, but it's not impossible he's not.

I'm fine with sheeping Titus' soft inno on Math, although if there's truly nothing to be gained in WIFOM-ing it at Math then there's also presumably nothing to be gained WIFOMing it at the rest of the town.

[Bingle]

As a matter of fact, I will not be taking the Vanilla as I already took a killing role to deny it from scum (I initially was planning to take one of the other abilities but when I noticed the killing role I had to opt for it for the denial to scum, regrettably), so taking one of the strongmans actually makes more sense.

This sentence is damned close to a scumclaim from mastina.

[Bingle]

Infinity 324 - Guiltied scum from a position of power in House + role madness game.
Titus - Gotcha moment with lie felt like she genuinely believed she was catching scum. Inability to grasp my town motivation for the lie in the first place reinforced this.
NDMath - Implied soft inno from Titus, like that he checked me N1, town energy surrounding said claim.

Dunnstral - Mason card on D1, attempting to roleblock me reeks of a town mindset when I was clearly pushing investigatives to assume targeting me was a waste of time. Mitigated by the claims.
Dwlee99 - Gut, terrible action choice likely wasn't scum trying to fake the action.

Almost50 - Vaguely, A50 crumbing doc while pointing scum at me was a townish A50 decision. The lack of engagement with my gambit is troublesome, but he's one of the few people I'd expect to lean into it and see what I was doing so he gets mild townpings for Dwlee not dying. Ranks this low because I'm not
NorwegianboyEE - Probably not scum with mastina? I dunno, could maybe be scum here.

mastina - Didn't feel like she was really trying to parse me/math/Titus, and also literally that one post I quoted.

[Bingle]

Assuming you're talking about Math, I disagree with the vote but it's not necessarily stupid. Titus only said it was not a guilty, not that it was a true innocent.

I'm definitely more interested in what mastina has to say for herself at the moment though.

[Bingle]

"because I'm not solid on my read there and this is monkey." should have been the end of that line.

[Bingle]

As a matter of fact, I will not be taking the Vanilla as I already took a killing role to deny it from scum (I initially was planning to take one of the other abilities but when I noticed the killing role I had to opt for it for the denial to scum, regrettably), so taking one of the strongmans actually makes more sense.

This sentence is damned close to a scumclaim from mastina.

[Bingle]

Yes, but I want to hear her reasoning before I explain it.

Suffice to say there is a single world in which that is a town mastina post and it is far outnumbered by the worlds in which it is a scum mastina post.

I don't think her reaction to Dwlee is particularly town indicative given public information in the thread at the time, although I did think her late day posting yesterday was town.

[Bingle]

Dwlee99 - Gut, terrible action choice likely wasn't scum trying to fake the action.

I'll play devil's advocate here (I hope Dwlee doesn't take it personal as I would have said the exact same thing if it was anyone else): WHY is it Townie to WASTE the check on someone who already claimed to have taken a killing role? Would you expect Scum!Dwlee to: (a) Guilty a partner? (b) Clear a Townie? (c) Fake an inno on a partner? (d) Fake a guilty on a Townie? (e) Claim to have taken the ability and not use it? (f) Pass the ability to someone else??

Give me ONE of these over targeting the claimed "killer" as a better option.

In scumdwlees shoes I probably would have chosen Clear Townie -> Clear partner -> Fake being blocked -> target mastina -> fake guilty -> guilty partner.

The way dwlee went about the investigate makes me think this isn’t a faked miss of mastina’s claim and I think that’s towny. I’m aware that I might be prong, but that is my thought there.

[Bingle]

I am not against using a vig that is heavily gated and have in fact done so as town before.

Lynx? I was of the impression that your town approach to cigs was still “Town should never use vigs.”

[Bingle]

Considering Bingle could have killed me last night or maybe roleblocked me knowing I had the gunsmith and would almost certainly use it: no

Would never have done either, fwiw.

Roleblocking you would’ve been a scum claim and killing you makes today 100% harder.

I probably wouldn’t have faked sending you a commute in the first place, so townreading me on the merit of trying to herd the scum kill into a small pool is a better reason, as is the fact I had T3 mostly in my court and was one of his more vocal defenders, but that you didn’t die after the gambit happened is entirely NAI for me.

[Bingle]

Suffice to say there is a single world in which that is a town mastina post and it is far outnumbered by the worlds in which it is a scum mastina post.

As the expert in scumastina I'm pretty damn sure there's zero worlds where it's ever a scumastina post; I don't post anything even remotely close than that as scum, ever. The only world I could see it as a scumastina post is specifically in an attempt to mimic my towngame, but that means that frankly, you're wrong.

The number of worlds where it is a town mastina post far far far outnumber the number of worlds where it's scumastina because scumastina never makes that post without it being an attempt tp mimic the worlds where town mastina would and thus you've got an absolute minimum of 75-80% town to an absolute maximum of 20-25% scum but realistically more like 90-99% town to 1-10% scum.

I don’t think that scum you claims the venge, but if scum you took the vig I would 100% expect you to be open about it and to drive the narrative as a scum denial play, simply because scum you tries to be as open and truthful as possible. The thing that concerns me about your claim is not that you took the role, but that you sound like you intend to use it. (As a vig, specifically).

[Bingle]

Bingle needs a decent story about why a commute wasn't in his deck.

Still haven’t provided a reason why I lie knowing it serves no purpose to me as scum.

I’ll go ahead and give it to you: It was a pro town gambit. If I did it as scum it’s because it’s what town me would have done. I don’t think I would have realized that as scum though.

[Bingle]

Since rolecop has a gun (I thought it didn't), I have a gun. I rolecopped NDMath as I felt her claim was bullshit.

Townpoints. Best use of rolecop is to confirm already claimed roles. Doesn’t clear math at all though.

[Bingle]

Since rolecop has a gun (I thought it didn't), I have a gun. I rolecopped NDMath as I felt her claim was bullshit.

Townpoints. Best use of rolecop is to confirm already claimed roles. Doesn’t clear math at all though.

[Bingle]

I’ll go ahead and give it to you: It was a pro town gambit. If I did it as scum it’s because it’s what town me would have done. I don’t think I would have realized that as scum though.

That "protown" gambit cost our commutes and got us nothing. You should not have done that. Losing our commutes for one check is a horrible trade even if it worked.

Commutes are a fairly garbage role for town and a pretty powerful one for scum, so… nope.

[Bingle]

If it's a fairly garbage role for town, why did you commute and not use the GS in your pack instead?

Why did I not use the N2 gunsmith N1 instead of commuting to make sure my pack survived to N2?

I'm... Well now, that's a really good question.

[Bingle]

Titus, with all due respect your tunnel here is even shittier than mathblades tunnel on mastina in that game she linked. The tunnel where mathblade tunneled mastina for being a mason in a game with a flipped mason-cop.

[Bingle]

Let's examine the narrative you're trying to perform Occams with:

1: Bingle took an ascetic or commuter on N1.
2: Bingle claimed, after the guilty on House, that Bingle had sent a commute to Dwlee (requiring Dwlee scum to hide the fact that there was no commute in that pack), in response to a 'failed action' result on him that could have been adequately explained by simply claiming one commute (also known as the number of commutes that were actually in the pack). If Bingle had sent a pack with an incriminating commute to a scumbuddy, the scumbuddy could have taken the incriminating commute, without saying he saw it.
3: Bingle instigated a massclaim of all the roles with disproportionate scum power that he had NO trouble forcing through even while being suspected of being in a mechanical 1v1, including the role you think this plan was supposed to expose. This massclaim then brought to light that there were more commutes in the ballcourt than there were in the equipment locker.

So your narrative is that I lied as scum to explain something that had an innocent explanation in a way where the lie had a high chance of being revealed on a day where my OTHER partner was already guiltied and dying. Not only that, but I pushed through the means of catching me in said lie only to then tie myself to my only remaining scumbuddy.

Presumably, you also believe that Dwlee didn't receive a Gunsmith, so I was lying in a way that would necessarily mean both me and my only remaining partner would both be eliminated if either of us ever was (also known as functionally gamethrowing at this point).

Also fun: In order for Dwlee and I to be scum together, I had to do all of this and then NOT make the kill, because Dunn claimed to have jailed me last night. That means that Dwlee the person under no mechanical suspicion as of last night, would have made the kill, in a game where detective, watcher, and follower are all likely to exist.

Alternatively: Bingle lied about something, knowing it would come out a day later, with the intention of protecting the N2 investigative shot he'd passed so that it could be used.

I too can apply occams razor. I think that Titus is actually an 8 year old, and she stole credit cards and hired an actress to play herself at the various Titus meets in order to fool the members of mafiascum so that no one would call her out on breaking ToS and having an account as someone too young to have an account. Clearly she should be banned.

[Bingle]

Then fucking do something protown. My tunnel is literally the only thing going on this game so it shouldn't be too hard.

Are you fucking blind?

I'm actively attempting to parse the vig claim from mastina, and I provided a full reads list literally a few pages ago complete with reasoning. Mastina is pushing Norwee and Dunn pretty hard, to which your response was literally: "I've solved the game I'm not going to read your case". Your tunnel is something I'm addressing, sure, but it is by no means the only thing going on in the thread and pulling you out of it, especially if you're town, is only going to make the game more readable because spoiler: LITERALLY NO ONE THINK'S YOU'RE RIGHT.

If you want to get me eliminated, you're going to have better luck AND reactions explaining why you think House and I had bad interactions.

[Bingle]

Btw what happened with the mason cards?

I took it, nobody else is in there

I think it's a fairly safe assumption that either there was no second mason or House had it and that's why T3 is dead.

If someone gets a mason card tonight they should def use it, but we shouldn't rely on masons to be useful at this point.

[Bingle]

Bingle what is your read on Titus here?
And A50 too.

Town and functionally non existent. I remember there being a reason to locktown A50. Not what it was, but at the moment I don't really have a read on him at all.

[Bingle]

VOTE: Norwee

This feels consistent with the characterization of Norwee's scumplay being townNorwee but less and the wagon company isn't bad.

[Bingle]

Disagree on "Titus makes herself sound reasonable as scum"

Why? It’s a bit more nuanced than scumTitus makes more sense, but Titus is generally aware of how her actions will be perceived when she’s scum and I don’t see this as a plan to win herself any major cred.

As far as bussing, Titus prefers not to bus but is absolutely aware of that perception and more than capable of subverting it for reads. She has been since at least 2015.

[Bingle]

Titus instead of voting Bingle how about voting here for now.
VOTE: Dwlee

I get the night action bit and the fact that defending me is entirely NAI, but what do you make of his partner analysis of House? It strikes me as both risky and effort intensive to fake.

[Bingle]

It just is not my experience that scum!Titus attempts to make sense.

Again, I don’t think it’s a dichotomy of makes sense/doesn’t make sense. It’s about the result of her push. Why does Titus doggedly hold to a tunnel that’s not earning her any support and almost certainly doesn’t result in an elimination if she doesn’t believe she’s right?

[Bingle]

These statements technically cannot both be true (Unless I'm misunderstanding you). Telling the truth has to be at least slightly town-indicative for me (to balance out lying being a guilty) or else I was an awful rolecop target.

Sure they can. The best town use of a rolecop is on an already claimed player in an attempt to catch them in a lie. That would be a guilty. You having told the truth about your claim doesn't make you more likely to be town. It's kind of like how a N1 track with no result in a normal isn't really useful information, but a N1 track to a kill is very useful information.

The reason Titus gets townpoints for targeting you here is that Titus now has to be able to claim what you are before you do or be confirmed to have not targeted you with a rolecop. From a town perspective, there were three decent rolecop options mechanically: you, A50 and mastina. I don't think any town rolecop would actually target A50 and it would have been the better move as scum to target mastina, given there were multiple options for her role that are dangerous to scum in different ways.

WRT your PoE being so small, do you mind sharing a readslist? Particularly interested in your takes on A50/Dunn/Norwee.

[Bingle]

Mathematically, it does a proportional amount to the likelihood of me lying. Like how a N1 track to no where deduces that the target didn't commit the kill and reduces that player's chance of being scum by the likelihood of them committing the kill N1.

Sure. Just like mathematically you not having been modkilled for posting a screenshot of a town role PM makes you more likely to be scum. Basically everything that we say is NAI isn't truly NAI, it's just impossible to have perfect enough information to actually determine whether it's AI or not.

It doesn't meaningfully impact my read of you though.

Do you believe I should have you as a townread based on you having taken follower, a utility role for both town and scum? If so, why?
Do you believe I shouldn't have a townread on Titus as a result of Titus' claim of targeting you, for the reasons I've already explained? If so, why?
Do you have a point to this incredibly semantic argument?

[Bingle]

So why did the scum shoot T3 instead of Infinity, the person who literally guiltied House? Because Norwee needed Infinity to defend him and T3 was willing to vote Norwee.

There is an alternative reason Infinity wouldn't be killed here: Infinity would have been the most likely protection last night.

I also have a slight tinfoil that T3 was killed to get rid of a powerful pack, given he received his pack from House and scum knew what was in it. I think this would be more likely if DunnScum, but there's really no way of proving that.

[Bingle]

I like mastina's case even though it's not on Dwlee or Bingle. I am willing to compromise there.

The Norwee one or the Dunn one?

[Bingle]

NDMath has had little things that I liked about his posting, like when he townread someone for using a rolecop similarly to him

Do you mean when I townread Titus for rolecopping ND or when ND said he would also have jail kept me last night in response to Dunn’s claim?

Cause afaict NDs reaction to the rolecop was being offended he didn't get towncred over it.

[Bingle]

Actually, I might not be right

Murder, are scum allowed to select a mason from their pack?

I found the answer on the link. They can pick it but mason isn't added to their role and they don't get it in the chat.

This is correct

Mason isn't added to their role if they're mafia

This is true, though it hadn’t occurred to me.

[Bingle]

(Updated Chart)
Dunnstral -> A50 -> Dwlee (Mason)
Bingle -> Dwlee -> Mastina (Commute, N2 GS)
Almost50 -> mastina -> Titus (RB/SMan/SMan/Neighbor/Vanilla)
Dwlee99 -> Titus -> NDMath (Sman)
mastina -> NDMath -> Norwee (Either N4 Vig or Venge, Strong Investigative)
Titus -> Norwee -> Dunn (Commute/Rolecop)
T3 -> Dunn -> Bingle (Unclaimed AFAICT)
NDMath -> Bingle -> Infinity (Commute/RB)
Norwee -> Infinity -> A50 (Unclaimed, but probably worth remaining as such.)
House -> T3 (ScumFlip, 1 Shot Hider, Even Night Neighborizor)
Infinity -> House (Disloyal Checker, N2 Tracker, 2 Shot Doc)
cyrus (Multitasking)
Flea

[Bingle]

Sman roles belong to mastina and Titus, Titus is probably taking another SMan tonight. Titus did you RC ND N1 or N2?

[Bingle]

Will vote:

Dunn/Norwee/Math/Dwlee

Let's actually get an elim here, please.

[Bingle]

Yeah, setup is too townsided. The goal was to have very little in the way of reliable guilties (especially early ones) and we apparently overlooked a few. Legitimately I’d forgotten disloyal checker was even in the pool let alone capable of acting N1.

I was mostly ignoring Dwlee scum as an option because if mastina didn’t die that was functionally clearing for him imo. I think base packs need to be edited to have fewer investigative results on d2/3 and more 0 or low utility roles that are kind of fun to use, with the potential of an expansion to add back in the invests for a larger game.

Either way, well played all and thanks for the game mr cat.

[Bingle]

Well sorry Bingle. I knew the result on mastina was hinky.

No worries. I did what I did because the pack was commute, N2 gsmith, odd doc and I thought I was likely to die N1 over just about everyone. (Originally I’d submitted a Dunn heal, but decided taking the commute was probably safer). I lied mostly because the odds of the lie being called out were low ~25% both other commutes were chosen - odds they were already burned and I didn’t want the doc role to disappear.

[Bingle]

I was mostly ignoring Dwlee scum as an option because if mastina didn’t die that was functionally clearing for him imo

Why?

Repeatable doc and killing role on the same person. If that person is town you basically have to shoot there. Scum dwlee knows he can’t shoot you or me, and shooting PoE players is dangerous anyway.

[Bingle]

Agreed, it's hard to balance town feeling like they have fun stuff to do and scum not being totally overwhelmed

We could add some non factional tracking roles (follower that can’t pick up the nk), some off the cuff utility roles (the ability to leave behind a message when limmed), some additional disruptive roles (commute style non investigative hider) and communication roles (more neighborizors) to the main packs.

Scum wouldn’t go wrong with a factional action or two as well (rolecop/roleblocker).

Otherwise, running as is 11:4 would probably work as a fix.

[Bingle]

I'm not sure how feasible this is but what about adding things like

N2 Tracker or Strongman that way there's a scum role and a town role in the same pack

Could definitely be feasible, but the reason we didn't go that route was because scum already has a huge incentive to take strong town roles (See Dwlee with the Gsmith). And given the number of ways town can fuck with results (millers, roleblocks, ascetics) scum can't really safely fake their action.

I think if you want value added scumroles, you should probably go with and instead of or. (N2 Tracker AND SMan) or (Compulsive 1-shot Ascetic AND Novice Disloyal Checker) or (Compulsive Gun Vendor AND Novice 1 Shot Gunsmith) would all be ways of stapling scum utility to a powerful town role, though.

[Bingle]

Can we please not just yeet the freaking fairy for making sense D1?

Next time get a N0 guilty. Clearly your fault.

(I'd say I wasn't responsible for your lim because I was just a deadline vote, but I spent most of D1 snuggled into Norwee's pocket so that's not much better. Completely missed the subtext of your hints though.)

[Bingle]

a little disappointing dw giving up like that .

There wasn't a way to win at that point. I had a guilty on me

There's always the possibility of 5 simultaneous modkills!

[Bingle]

By claiming his result, NDMath actually broke the rule on quoting mod communication.

By giving Math his result, MCat influenced the game in the favor of town. We're gonna have to reroll the game.

[Bingle]

Since when has me repping out been AI?

It’s not. You lurking out and not replacing might be but you lurking out and not posting on site for like five days is clearly just RL.

[Bingle]

You shouldn’t flip birds, very few of them can fly inverted.

I didn’t bother arguing against the people arguing your rep out was AI, mom, because I didn’t care enough about the case to bother.