3d20 – The Great Board Game War [GAME OVER]

[ssbm_Kyouko]

My guess is Cakez voyeured in a way that I was advising voyeur to act so he could fakeclaim as a town voyeur with real results later

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So he would have been watching someone that the collective would believe

could

have been culted

[ssbm_Kyouko]

But yeah that is bad news if cakez recruit action resolves on nights that he dies

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So no mafia died in the night. Thor's rollclaim is confirmed true by T3 flip, meaning he is likely town. Cyrus doesn't typically lie, I believe he really did roll PGO and was maybe fishing for PGO. This together all but confirms that Thor is a PGO and is not teamed with Cyrus. Probably he is just town.

No dead mafia means they did not try to kill Thor, which means they tried to kill someone else. One kill comes from Mafia. I think it's safe to say that as CL you wouldnt touch Thor with a 10 foot pole, so cakez was probably killed intentionally last Night. Probably by Mafia because they thought Cakez would be treated as conftown, but maybe they somehow knew that there is no town Parity Cop. I'll get to that soon.

Maybe T3 thought that he could roleblock Thor. I dont think this is likely though and find it far more likely that Thor and someone else were neighborized. Probably someone James trusted would be able to investigate Thor properly in case James died from targeting him. Maybe he also thought that as town, Thor would like a hood because it would give him someone to plan with, and Thor was saying often that he wanted to be recruited this game.

Dragon are you in a hood with Thor?

I think James was PGOed, but I think T3 and Cakez were both killed outright. I think seeing Cakez flip cult but not a hus driver means either Gamma lied about cult roll or the bus driver alignment was rerolled as 3p because a cult already existed. I think we have a serial killer.

As for "getting to the cc later":
Cyrus had my roll. He knew it was real. The only way he could know without a doubt that the town PC claim was fake is if he knew the Town PC rolls were fake or fudged. If fudged, it means he knew that because other town PC roles were fudged into Mafia PC roles. If faked, it means he is teamed with dwlee or marashu and knows one or both of them lied about their roll.

I think he gambled. I dont think he knew cakez claim was fake, because that would mean the other PC rolls were made mafia in addition to the existing Mafia PC. Maybe Cook balanced it this way. Maybe a Mafia Rampaging Parity Cop has a rampaging factional kill that killed all 3 players? I think T3 would roleblock cakez, and if James tried to neighborize cakez as well, then that explains all 3 kills in a reasonable way as well.

Is 9:3:1 with a rampaging mafia factional kill balanced in role madness though? I feel like maybe not. I think we just have a serial killer, possibly a vigilante

[ssbm_Kyouko]

cyrus is my top townread

I am absolutely 1000% confident which role you are.

I think this confirms james would not have targeted Thor actually. Maybe Cyrus flipping scum changed his mind though because Cyrus rolled PGO

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I feel like Mafia Rampaging PC actually makes the most sense. Especially if anyone is alone in James' hood right now. That would mean 2 of those 3 dead players targeted the third player, and the third player got factional killed by a rampaging mafia PC.

Pedit: that's reasonable actually, a mafia doubled PC would be able to find 3P easily because it knows its targets are not mafia

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Based on how the doubled parity cop worked though according to the flip, maybe the rampaging PC would have a similar effect. Compare the reflexive targets (from rampaging) to the original target, in addition to comparing the original target to the previous night's original target?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh yeah I forgot MegA roll was 2-modifier, so it's possible there is still a town multitasking voyeur I suppose, if the 20 on MegAs roll happened to work out to be multitasking

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So did james leave you anything in his hood or did Cook not do the Neighborizer that way? Some Neighborizer's can post before recruiting

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also with T3 flipping odd-night roleblocker my TR on RMH goes out the window. I thought his gambit was specifically coming from a town odd-night roleblocker role

What’s this about

When RMH came into the game he tried to bait someone into claiming Even-Night roleblocker. He rolled roleblocker with no modification and was trying to bait a fakeclaim. It was a really bad gambit but the idea was there

if

RMH was actually the Odd-Night Roleblcoker and was trying to bait the other roleblocker into.claiming a modifier that he didnt roll. I TRed Robert after Thor claimed his rolled modifier was odd-night because Roberts gambit made sense coming from an odd-night roleblocker, but otherwise didnt really make sense, and he couldn't know the odd night modifier unless he had received the role. So I TRed him thinking he had the town odd night roleblocker based on the way he played that gambit. But T3 flipped that role, hence my read on him which was based on that play is dissolved

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I lied.

I lied because no one claimed to have rolled my role and I figured the scum was lying about their rolls and I wanted to confuse them a little but honestly I wasn't sure what the best way would be maybe it worked maybe it didn't.

(1) This was my actual dice roll: 3 20-SIDED DICE: (2, 19, 4) = 25
(2) My actual role is 1-shot double vig and

I killed SirCakez and T3.

I can die happy!!!! This is the best game ever!

I'm a frikkin' hero and annihilated the cult N1, what's it like feeling like a hero? Now I know!

Okay maybe Cyrus or one of his buddies did roll your role then. Makes sense as to why Cyrus was talking about a superpower role, and they probably thought the way James reacted to Cyrus meant that James had the doubled vig, explaining why they tried to kill him even though he'd POEd himself down to doubled Neighborizer. Rmh back to town

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Could be Cyrus just rolled doubled vigilante and to tone that shit down Cook fudged it into one-shot doubled vig, no way to know if that's fudged but my guess from Cyrus's iso is he was aware of a doubled Vigilante

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Or maybe aware of a 2-modifier vigilante that could potentially be stronkq

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Why doesn't everyone in the game target me leaving only me alive? The game should end if all the scum die that way.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Just did a little list. FMPOV game feels POEd. I think Dragon/Nero/Gamma should end it. Would like full claims from all 3, will start with

VOTE: Dragon

Because killing James confirms your roll was true and is motivation for scum!you to kill him

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Think dwlee, marashu, thor, redtea, rmh are all town with the extinction of cult

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also just realized that if RMH claim is true, then none of the deaths are particularly PGO related so I don't know how you're clearing Thor completely

Hmm, I feel like I had good reason to think Thor was not partnered with Cyrus but maybe that was James not partnered with Cyrus. This is true of course though, Thor could be lying about PGO.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I feel like Cyrus doesnt lie about rolling PGO though even if he is scum. Hmm :/

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think there's just mafia, and if there is 3p they're the good for town kind, like Survivor

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Because either the 2 kills came from town!RMH or rampaging factional kill made 3 kills

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Nobody rolled a second faction, perhaps the roles were fudged to make a second scum faction and we ended up something like 8:2:2:1, but I'm inclined to believe RMH and that indicates there was 1 nightkill so probably one faction. Maybe there's an alien that didnt use the factional kill last night, but there's no evidence of that yet. If there are aliens it's Nero and RMH though I think. Again if scum think this is the case based on some info about night actions that we dont have, they can try to shoot at the other scum faction.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I thought survivor just had to live, they would want to kill scum or they get endgamed

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Wait does survivor win if they're alive in endgame, regardless of whether town or scum wins? I was thinking they only won with town

[ssbm_Kyouko]

wait how is that order exactly the same except for gamma

...is this how cyrus picks his scumreads????? and I crazy, am I doing something wrong?

Just drawing the wrong conclusion - if you put the reads in order it makes sense that the earliest reads will be placed on players that have made fewer posts, because they happened earlier in the game

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I don’t really get why so many people suspect Nero apart from maybe him being low impact based on what I’ve seen, and that can be VERY hit-or-miss as a method of reading him

Mine's a combination of low impact (burden of proficiency) and just a poe where I'm townreading a good amount of players hard enough that I'm comfortable in not eliminating them.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Aliens are given a bonus role in their PT.

I mean, I don't think it's impossible that alien gets a rampaging mod and claims 1x vig

I don’t think “bonus role” means a modifier

I read the 3d20 design thread a few times in pregame, Aliens get an additional rolecard generated by an additional mod-rolled 3d20 that "floats" with the alien faction for the first 48(?) hours of the game. Aliens may swap roles with each other and the floating role as many times as they like within that timeframe, at which point their roles are locked in.

Additionally, all third parties are given an alternate Town role to choose between in pre-game. It's possible that someone rolled 3P, and decided to play town instead of picking up the 3P PM. That could lead to something like 9:3:1 balance-wise

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Because either the 2 kills came from town!RMH or

rampaging factional kill made 3 kills

can someone eli5 why someone's rampaging ability being able to be applied to the factional kill sounds reasonable

It doesn't sound balanced, but it's possible it does work this way. Take a look at the Ninja Wiki Page and see the sample role PMs. There are 2 versions, a modifier that only affects one ability, and one that affects all abilities (including the factional ability). I PMed Cook for clarification just now so hopefully we'll see that updated soon.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

T3 maybe galaxy-brained us

[ssbm_Kyouko]

He was calling for multitasking modifier to claim - maybe he actually rolled the second cult die? Cult Multitasking Voyeur, but he claimed to have rolled town Multitasking Voyeur to try to bait the cult leader out? After all, the Cult leader probably would be thinking "My role was Bus Driver with 2 modifiers, I rolled Multitasking at random and Bus Driver was fudged. This is the perfect opportunity to fakeclaim a real town role later if I need"

But T3 would know that really there were 2 cult rolls. He would be the only player that knows this. So he would be on the lookout for anyone softing Voyeur as being the cult leader. Somehow T3 figured out Cakez was scum very early - going to go reread them a bit and see if he spotted a crumb or something.

pedit: Ah thanks for clarifying, I must have remembered the thread wrong

[ssbm_Kyouko]

okay idk if it will be publicly clarified but Rampaging does not affect factional abilities. Rampaging vig is still technically possible source of the kills but not a reasonable assumption to make with rollclaims

[ssbm_Kyouko]

T3's reads looking like hot fire

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hi i'm SO busy I'm dying

but I want to play the mafias

and there it is. Multitasking crumb.

T3 certainly rolled Cult or some other scum faction + Multitasking Voyeur

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Lucky I caught that or we'd have the wrong number of fudges in massclaim >_>
but gj, you galaxy brained his ass

[ssbm_Kyouko]

He was calling for multitasking modifier to claim - maybe he actually rolled the second cult die? Cult Multitasking Voyeur, but he claimed to have rolled town Multitasking Voyeur to try to bait the cult leader out? After all, the Cult leader probably would be thinking "My role was Bus Driver with 2 modifiers, I rolled Multitasking at random and Bus Driver was fudged. This is the perfect opportunity to fakeclaim a real town role later if I need"

But T3 would know that really there were 2 cult rolls. He would be the only player that knows this. So he would be on the lookout for anyone softing Voyeur as being the cult leader. Somehow T3 figured out Cakez was scum very early - going to go reread them a bit and see if he spotted a crumb or something.

pedit: Ah thanks for clarifying, I must have remembered the thread wrong

actually I was just going through the VCs because it did look like

someone

had figured out sircakez was cult early (hence my red-string-conspiracy-theory mention). Looking at it again, T3 left sircakez to vote cyrus and at one point thor, but kind of kept coming back to sircakez. And he did talk about him a lot.

Hi i'm SO busy I'm dying

but I want to play the mafias

and there it is. Multitasking crumb.

T3 certainly rolled Cult or some other scum faction + Multitasking Voyeur

you know what, I believe this crumb. Even though he later said what exactly he was irl busy with. I'll believe it.

I don't know where you're going with this exactly

I'm not going anywhere else with it, I'm already there: prior to this it was possible Cakez had received his role from either Gamma or from T3.

Now I can say without a doubt he got it from T3. Meaning if Gamma's roll claim is true, there is a 3rd party in the game. I seriously doubt they rolled jester or it would have been apparent sooner. We're dealing with SK or Survivor is my best guess. 3P roll is broken down into 25% Jester, 25% Survivor, 50% SK.

Whichever 3P they are, they should still have the bus driver + 2d20 modifiers.

We have parity cops to locate the 3P. I kinda think policing Thor is strong here because if hes truly PGO, eventually a Parity Cop that could be used to catch 3P may kill themselves trying to check Thor. If he's not PGO, he's not town and it's a good lim.

Gamma's suspicion about why I am treating this as town:scum:cult makes sense now. If he is telling the truth about his roll, he's probably figured all this out already, or at least suspected it when he saw Cakez flip something so close to what T3 rolled.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Parity cops and rolecops actually can locate 3P
UNVOTE:

I'm probably going to want to lim Thor today but we have time to discuss still

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I also dont like Thor challenging RMH, though if Thor is town, RMH could be a prime target for investigations that can find SK

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Think dwlee, marashu,

thor

, redtea, rmh are all town with the extinction of cult

I'm probably going to want to lim Thor today but we have time to discuss still

could you talk about how you went from town reading Thor to wanting to vote him?

Yeah, I was heavily discounting the possibility of Cyrus lying about his roll. I think it was Dragon or Gamma that made a point that had me reconsidering a bit, bringing Thor into that POE, because he was only out of it because of his suspected role of PGO. Then when Thor voted for RMH it seemed suspicious to me.

In the post right before 1605 I explain why policy limming Thor is probably strong here as well.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I doubt 106 was a crumb.

Even if it wasn't, it's clear that T3 interpreted it as such.

It's possible actually that Cakez was trying to crumb the Multitasking Parity Cop that Dwlee originally claimed, which actually turned out to be rampaging. I'm pretty sure dwlee claimed that before 106.

Regardless, I don't think the assertion that 106 was not a crumb has any impact on my conclusion, so why did you make this post?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

SSBM keeps doing this weird thing where she weaves in and out of the list. sometimes it's like she treats the roll list like gospel and other times she just sort of ignores it and revisions it. Like all of d1 she was cult hunting and then it became "well maybe there isn't a cult." and today her thoughts on Thor being scum are nonsense.

VOTE: Nero Cain

[ssbm_Kyouko]

oh I thought you were pushing Thor. my bad then.

though the "u responded to me and u r scummy 4 it" is still pretty bad

are you misrepresenting my posts on purpose or?

Mine too

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I doubt 106 was a crumb.

Even if it wasn't,

it's clear that T3 interpreted it as such

.

but was it? You'd have to believe that t3 lied rolling cult otherwise why would t3 suspect a roll that he knew was town? And it's not like t3 never unvoted cakes so it's not like he was death tunneling. I felt like you and redtea are being factually incorrect and it was worth pointing out.

I didn't say it

was

clear. I said it

is

clear. I have new information in the form of T3 and Cakez flips today that are bringing context to T3's plays from yesterDay.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I doubt 106 was a crumb.

Even if it wasn't,

it's clear that T3 interpreted it as such

.

but was it? You'd have to believe that t3 lied rolling cult otherwise why would t3 suspect a roll that he knew was town? And it's not like t3 never unvoted cakes so it's not like he was death tunneling. I felt like you and redtea are being factually incorrect and it was worth pointing out.

also, occams just says he was busy b/c why would he lie about that?

I've gone to make posts before about RL things and noticed that the RL thing I'm posting about could crumb my role, and reworded what I was saying slightly so that I could point to it as a crumb later without it being the type of post that anyone would think is a crumb. Anyways, it doesn't matter if it was a crumb or not. What matters is that T3 thought it was a crumb.

Something

that Cakez did set T3 off and led to T3 tunneling him all day. I think that T3 interpreted 106 as a Multitasking crumb, and that is why T3 tunneled Cakez. My guess is T3 probably roleblocked Cakez as well to prevent a recruiting - not that it mattered, thanks to RMH.

I doubt 106 was a crumb.

Even if it wasn't,

it's clear that T3 interpreted it as such

.

but was it? You'd have to believe that t3 lied rolling cult otherwise why would t3 suspect a roll that he knew was town? And it's not like t3 never unvoted cakes so it's not like he was death tunneling. I felt like you and redtea are being factually incorrect and it was worth pointing out.

1.5 he moved to cyrus, 1.6 he voted for thor, every other vote count he was on sircakez, except for the final votecount.
People were suspicious of t3 specifically because he wouldn't let up on sircakez.
I'm not as convinced as kyouko is about the crumb, but it seems plausible enough to me[/quote]
So what happened between 1601 and here to change your mind about the crumb? Again, not that it matters whether the crumb was intentional, what matters is that T3 seemed to think it was.

oh I thought you were pushing Thor. my bad then.

though the "u responded to me and u r scummy 4 it" is still pretty bad

are you misrepresenting my posts on purpose or?

either that or I didn't really understand 1627. What's "not a great look 4 you/me"?

i would take a closer look at the quote in that post.
the fact you implied i'm scum because of the way i'm engaging with you/your slot, which I already explained why that was nonsense, not to mention you were simultaneously engaging with *me* the same way.

I would feel less confident about redtea flipping scum than kyouko rn

I mainly suspect redtea b/c he seems to be pushing on me and hasn't given a reason. And if he has then I guess I'm too dumb to understand it.

but his interaction with the SSBM slot seems weird.

d1 I felt like he was scummy for saying that he wouldn't vote SSBM and then he said that SSBM is either town or 3p. And now he's hard scumreadng her so eh idk.

if you don't understand why you and ssbm are in my poe i suggest retreading my iso.

I was starting to reread you a bit as well because I'm also not sure why I'm in your POE now. My first instinct was "what changed? I outed a 3p theory, maybe they're 3p?" But I don't think that makes sense because if I flip, people will (hopefully) be really looking for 3p.

Mara Kyo dwlee townblock
VOTE: MegA

Sure who's that
VOTE: MegA

VOTE: ssbm
Don't like this sequence

This post is insanely scummy. If this was Titus I would be locktowning her for this, but this is insanely scummy.

I'm pretty sure that was why t3 was light tunneled on cakez for

Really busy bad weekend for me - moving into school
I will try to make it here when I can!

and I just think this disproves it as a crumb. but w/e, it's not that important.

Yeah, is not that important. I disagree though. Think it could both be true about cakez's irl situation and be a crumb at the same time.

i think kyouko is thinking much more along the lines of "how can this game be solved through mechanics and claims"
didn't kyouko think something else was a crumb people (incl. me) didn't buy, was that d1 and did anything happen to back that up?
ugh i don't remember and i'm tired out

Probably I had ideas of some posts that I thought were crumbs that others didn't buy. That's not an uncommon thing for me. I have a few notes about potential crumbs that I know I didn't post, next to the POE of James' role. I was writing out what I thought roles were and tying them to rolls to see who might have been lying, but it was too early to conclude anything with the existing info. Still think it's too early to POE.

I didn't really remember cyrus claiming that but if that's what you guys think why in the world am I the one getting pushed?

They're unrelated, what makes you think they're related?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

But yeah @redtea, why are you scumreading me now? Quite a flip from D1, and my play has not changed in any way.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

They're unrelated, what makes you think they're related?

that's apparently the theory that Cyrus fakeclaimed his roll and had Thor claim his fakeclaim. Are you even reading this game? And if you didn't think that why would you want to pl thor today like you said earlier today?

Are you being intentionally stupid or what man?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I didn't really remember cyrus claiming that but if that's what you guys think why in the world am I the one getting pushed?

You getting pushed is unrelated to Cyrus claiming PGO. You say it like because Cyrus is the one that claimed PGO you shouldn't be getting pushed. They're not related at all

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: kyouko
Yeah this just constantly has been the only name in the pool of possible scums that’s seemed actually likely scum
I also don’t think the “my play has been consistent” plea is very convincing when I thought kyouko was sus D1 as well

Are you scum or just tilted? No comment on my theory that T3 rolled Cult Multitasking Voyeur?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Not only was "my play has been consistent" not a plea, it wasn't addressed at you at all and it feels like you just picked a sentence out of one of my posts to shade without addressing the context of it at all. Redtea was TRing me D1 for doing the same things I'm doing now. I'm not pleading to them, I'm pressing them for an explanation because it doesnt make sense FMPOV. I don't think my play has been any different and I wonder what about it seems different to them. If nothing seems different, I wonder why they feel differently now than on D1

[ssbm_Kyouko]

And let me direct you all to these posts

#1565
#1568
#1573

NEITHER of you has room to accuse the other of not reading the game, s2g

I responded to these already: see 1585.

wait how is that order exactly the same except for gamma

...is this how cyrus picks his scumreads????? and I crazy, am I doing something wrong?

Just drawing the wrong conclusion - if you put the reads in order it makes sense that the earliest reads will be placed on players that have made fewer posts, because they happened earlier in the game

please! read! my recent! posts! kyouko!

I'm not as active on the weekends - if those 3 posts you directed me to are the entire reason you're SRing me, I have 2 questions, if not, I'd like to know any other reasoning you have.

1. Have you seen my 1585? I don't think it got a response from you but I assumed you would have seen it. I get what you're trying to do if you're town, but I think it's wrong to.draw the conclusions you did because the data is going to look that way every time. The earlier someone was scumread by someone else, the fewer posts that first person will have before the second person SRs him/her/them.

2. Now that you've seen it, do you have a counterargument? I feel like your POE is drawn from a questionable foundation and I know I'm town and am fairly certain RMH is as well. I'm glad you have Nero within your POE and are voting him right now because I think he's scum, but I don't like how you got there, and I dont like that I'm there with no.other explanation (aside from the ??? conclusion drawn from the theory about Cyrus's playstyle, which imo is debunked easily by 1585) after how you treated me D1, and I dont like that RMH is there either.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I didn't really remember cyrus claiming that but if that's what you guys think why in the world am I the one getting pushed?

You getting pushed is unrelated to Cyrus claiming PGO. You say it like because Cyrus is the one that claimed PGO you shouldn't be getting pushed. They're not related at all

the point is that you guys are pushing Thor as a Cyrus buddy for claiming Cyrus' role but I'm being pushed instead of him and I'm like "what in the world?" Like its pretty obvious this is a scum push b/c town doesn't think like that.

It's possible he is a Cyrus buddy, but that's not the end of discussion and thoughts for the day. You're acting like trying to.solve is scummy. You've been mudslinging since D1 and it's a very stark contrast to how you played in large 233 where you were town, and that's all I have to go off with you. I've played games with you years ago before I took a long break from mafia but I don't remember details about those games

[ssbm_Kyouko]

And I'm not ignoring anyone's posts, I don't play as much on the weekends

[ssbm_Kyouko]

please! read! my recent! posts! kyouko!

no offense red but I think you have a kinda hard to understand playstlye. I don't really get your case on me and SSBM doesn't either, I guess. Though I understand why you are scum reading her more than me.

I understand where it came from and I thought they had seen my 1585 and since they didnt dispute it I assumed they saw my post and realized "oh yeah, that does make sense. I need to.go back to the drawing board." Otherwise I would expect some kind of response. So I was surprised to see they were still SRing me some 100 posts later, when it seems to now be based on something I did toDay. I feel like my play toDay has been the same as yesterDay, so I'm suspicious of the read

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I would policy thor so we dont have to wonder if hes really PGO or if hes a Cyrus partner. I'm not voting him because I scumread you, and Thor is just painful to deal with near ELO. He, as PGO, could only ever hurt town at this point. If he's really PGO, scum know he is and arent going to shoot him. Some town with weaker PRs like the even night tracker James rolled might try to check him at some point thinking their role may be best used in that way.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

And if he's PGO we could end up losing any townies that try to check him

[ssbm_Kyouko]

What is your scumread on me based on?

That you're not contributing in the way I expect you to be able to as town and that my impression of your play thus far is that you've been pecking at me from the sidelines.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

And if he's PGO we could end up losing any townies that try to check him

oh booo. no one is going to target him. this post is very

LAMIST

.

Why even ask if you don't want the answer? What did you expect me to say?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

There would be no point in PLing Thor if it wasn't likely someone would target him. If I didnt think someone was going to target him, there wouldnt be a very strong argument to PL him. It would just be to avoid having him in MELO/ELO, and if that's all we needed to do it could wait for the day before MELO/ELO.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Having a hard time believing any of the gripes you have with me are real

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Because it feels like everything you have to say is so transparently rooted in a misrepresentation or is easily disproved, or isn't concrete

[ssbm_Kyouko]

And it always comes opportunistically

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I don't understand what the hang up is to eliminate Thor. To me it's obvious that cyrus faked rolling a PGO so that his partner Thor could credibly claim it as his role. I see everyone pulling in different directions trying to form wagons away from Thor when the most obvious scum is staring us in the face. Is there some strategy I am missing? All the other pushes today are for flimsier reasons. My working theory is that another cyrus partner is steering us subliminally away from Thor.

If it were anyone else but Cyrus I would be confident on this but in my experience he doesn't typically lie as scum. He's more prone to stretch the truth or word things in such a way that it loopholes and is technically not a lie though heavily implies something that is untrue. Of course in this game he did lie so it's possible he's turning a new leaf. Not saying you're wrong, I'm just not

100% convinced

.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

well we know theres a cult bus driver .

i think any way lol

Just noticed this... Do we think Cyrus TMI'd Mega here?

Possibly, I was starting on grabbing quotes from my and Nero's ISO and I saw something from Nero as well indicating he was not questioning there was cult either

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: thor

We're not killing thor, I have no idea why james would out that

Who voted you table champion we anit killing Thor since when he's had bad play left and right never even gave his dice rolls he just claimed what he rolled every one else gave a dice number .

Btw I think this says "Who voted you table champion? 'We ain't killing Thor?' Since when? He's had bad play left and right, never even gave his dice rolls (the 3d20 numbers) he just claimed what he rolled (the role/modifier/alignment from.the table); everyone else gave their dice rolls"

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So in 904 Cyrus voted Nero because Nero voted Thor, and 3 posts later in 907, Cyrus is berating me for taking Thor off of the table and also presenting a small point in favor of eliminating Thor

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hi i'm SO busy I'm dying

but I want to play the mafias

and there it is. Multitasking crumb.

T3 certainly rolled Cult or some other scum faction + Multitasking Voyeur

I....don't buy this being a crumb or that T3 thought this was a multitasking crumb

How do you explain T3's play D1 if you dont think he rolled Cult Multitasking Voyeur and pegged Cakez as the CMV? Or if you do think that's what happened, then why do you think T3 tunneled him? What did T3 see from Cakez to tip him off?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Still think it's too early to POE.

Heel turn

I meant too early to massclaim and solve via POE using the list. I think tomorrow we'll probably be able to

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Still think it's too early to POE.

Heel turn

I meant too early to massclaim and solve via POE using the list. I think tomorrow we'll probably be able to

Just did a little list. FMPOV game feels POEd. I think Dragon/Nero/Gamma should end it. Would like full claims from all 3, will start with

VOTE: Dragon

Because killing James confirms your roll was true and is motivation for scum!you to kill him

2 different POEs. The first quotes are specifically mechanical POEs generated by massclaiming and comparing to the rollclaims.

The second quote refers to a POE in a more traditional sense where you scumread a group of players by POE because everyone else seems towny enough that theres a good chance the scum are in the "POE"

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hi i'm SO busy I'm dying

but I want to play the mafias

and there it is. Multitasking crumb.

T3 certainly rolled Cult or some other scum faction + Multitasking Voyeur

I....don't buy this being a crumb or that T3 thought this was a multitasking crumb

How do you explain T3's play D1 if you dont think he rolled Cult Multitasking Voyeur and pegged Cakez as the CMV? Or if you do think that's what happened, then why do you think T3 tunneled him? What did T3 see from Cakez to tip him off?

T3 picks out really small things about people's play a lot, usually via meta, and tunnels on it. I'm not really going to tin foil hat to try and figure out why he had Cakez pegged, but I won't say it's impossible T3 rolled CMV. I just don't believe, if that's the case, that he thought Cakez was crumbing multitasking and that made him so sure Cakez was cult

And this is a fair assessment of T3's play, guess we'll see in postgame

[ssbm_Kyouko]

SSBM keeps doing this weird thing where she weaves in and out of the list. sometimes it's like she treats the roll list like gospel and other times she just sort of ignores it and revisions it. Like all of d1 she was cult hunting and then it became "well maybe there isn't a cult." and today her thoughts on Thor being scum are nonsense.

Not gonna lie, the way Kyo has treated the list as described here has bothered me. Certain things seemed to be matter of fact accepted like they must be true, while other seemingly identical types of information was thrown away to fit theories

well, the list most likely isn't 100% accurate and shouldn't be treated as such. Parts of the list are confirmed by flips, but if we'd flipped scum that had claimed to roll a Cult leader on 3d20, and hadn't flipped that cult leader, I'd be questioning if the cult is even real. We dont know what's what yet, and we have a few people claiming their roles are not on the list at all. Like Cakez's roll might be fake. Probably some scum rolls are fake too. Is there any particular instance of me not following the list exactly that you feel is unjust? I dont think I've made any unreasonable leaps from the information we have.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I also kinda agree with cakez about ssbm

I don't think ssbm is all that townie Wich is why I didn't really like you saying that you wouldn't vote them.

I didn't and I don't think cakez did either, take ssbms vote on mega to be an rvs vote Wich is why is a bit scummy.

As for my pool of 6: Cyrus, Nero, Thor, Cakez, Dragon, and RMH:

I didn't like this post b/c its all the popular wagons and being down with all the popular wagons is just a great way to blend in. There's plenty of scum motivation to it.

even d1 me called it out

I would like to point out that her pool of 6 is everyone besides dragon that's been mentioned as a possible wagon.

It's null but scum do use heavy mech talk to hide behind

this was both in general and at ssbm. It was my worry that she was using heavy mech talk to hide behind.

I kinda just want to know if the cult is real. We're too fragmented. This is the most pro-town elim today I think

VOTE: Gamma

I could also do James because I can see Gamma/James as partners, and if they are, the cult is possibly a lie to distract from scum

you've been all about finding and killing cult and now you are voting not cult?!?

someone rolled cult so it exists.

the cult is possibly a lie to distract from scum

I mean Jesus fuck, you were cult hunting all day and someone rolled cult. Am I really the only one that thinks this is B.S?

tbf cyrus isn't the first one that has brought up that it seems fake as shit that SSBM spent the entire day cult hunting and BELIEVING megas roll claim to doubting if it was true

you weren't getting snowed, you are just full of shit

I was going to quote a post but I forgot which one but its like SSBM is just there and blowing with the breeze. She was town reading Cyrus all of d1 and then quick hammered him and then was town reading Thor and then as soon as Thor gets mentioned as a possible elimination she's wanting to policy him. This also relates to 503 and here thing about believing in a cult to thinking the cult was a lie and trying to use it to get a Gamma flip....like I realize reads and thoughts change but she seems especially ez going like she doesn't have any hard thoughts or theories, they all just change with the drop of a hat.

SSBM keeps doing this weird thing where she weaves in and out of the list. sometimes it's like she treats the roll list like gospel and other times she just sort of ignores it and revisions it. Like all of d1 she was cult hunting and then it became "well maybe there isn't a cult." and today her thoughts on Thor being scum are nonsense.

1652 -and here's the OMGUS

You've been mudslinging since D1

wanted to point out that she's trying to belittle and misclassify my play as mudslinging when I'm just hunting. This is classic scum ad hom.

you've been pecking at me from the sidelines.

whine that I'm scumreading her

I responded to 521 on D1, but to reiterate, I felt it was most likely that scum would try to copy the roll-claims of town closely enough so that when we massclaim it would be plausible that a person could have received their role from either the scum's fake roll or from a real town role. The 6 players I had in that POE in 503 were players who had claimed rolls that could overlap with each other after the mod's fudging. I also prioritized the people that claimed the latest, because the first person of those 6 to claim couldn't be copying anyone else.

736 - It's null but scum do it? It's NAI for me. I cant recall the last time I played a mech-heavy game as scum, but I can direct you to open 820: Siege of Aurelia and mini Theme Owner's Market Blitz in my recent ego. In both of these games, I, as town, am very focused on mechanics. I believe I would do the same thing as scum, but I would do it in a way that benefits scum. For example, I would never make the point "dont claim if you're off the list" as scum because I wouldnt expect most other people to realize that scum.could hunt a specific PR they rolled and lied about by POEing players off-list. I would let people claim that silently and one of the off-listers would have died last Night in an attempt to find the doubled vig which was clearly rolled by scum.

1161 is the post I was talking about earlier where Nero doesnt question whether the cult is real, which would also look like a TMI on Gamma if Nero is scum. Also, I don't think Gamma has played in such a way that their claim is above reproach. There are several possibilities ranging from scum that lied about what they rolled to town that told the truth. Possibly Gamma is scum that told the truth. No reason not to out the cult if you're scum and know it exists. However, there is also a benefit for scum if town thinks a cult exists when it does not - it distracts town from the real threat. This is a concrete advantage, and easily tears down the accusation that it's scummy for me to have reconsidered whether Gamma's claim was even true. This is kind of a response to 1163 as well

1279 - Cyrus (scum) brings up that it's scummy for me to question whether cult is real when I am specifically questioning it because I think Gamma could be scum lying about the cult. This isn't a reason to SR me unless you're thinking Cyrus was only doing this to Distance. If that's the case you haven't made it evident yet.

1284 - Its still quite possible I was considering what Cakez flipped. But you'll continue to wave the truth away I'm sure.

As for the next paragraph, you're just describing my towngame. I flip-flop a lot. I rethink things a lot. I forget things a lot. As scum, my game moves in more of a line than a zig-zag.

And in 1652, yes, I finally voted you. I've felt like your points on me have been weak for a while and with 1624 it just got egregious. You'd been (imo) misrepping me for most of the game and tunneling me, and I was willing to think you weren't acting in bad faith up until then. 1624 set me off because you're describing my solving process as "revisioning" and I feel like you arent solving. You feel to me like a fly buzzing around. That's what flies do though, so it's annoying, but it's just what you do. But then you landed on my food.

I dont think you've been hunting, and if you really have been, you're just tunneling town and you're not going to get anywhere with it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Jk I'm gonna do it in the morning when I'm on PC instead of mobile

mood

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Because it feels like everything you have to say is so transparently rooted in a misrepresentation or is easily disproved, or isn't concrete

what am I misrepping? What are you disproving?

like I'm pretty certain that I'm just getting railroaded by scum here but I don't think town really cares

Responses below:

Spoiler: Wall of Quote Stripes

I stopped caring about this game on page 4. Follow me cakez

you didnt even post till 9 pages in to the game this is so not your town game prove me wrong?

I wasn't around before then. I'll let me content speak for me.

I grabbed a few quotes in here that struck me as possible theater, or just seemed slightly off, with Cyrus. The response Nero has feels hollow to me, like it's lacking a fire that is usually present in his posts. However Cyrus has made a similar post at me as well later - kind of a "glancing blow" type of point where he says something to imply I'm scummy and it's just a weak point and he doesn't follow up. So maybe Nero is not teamed with Cyrus either. Anyways, I'm not sure Nero's content speaks well enough for him in the upcoming posts.

Everyone should out their rolls btw, not just players that rolled 13-20. It will help poe later when we can reference flips back to claims.

This makes sense but it also feels so wrong to do.

Why? I'm not sure why we are claiming our numbers so I'd like it explained why this is a good strat?

^This is an example of pecking from the sidelines. It's a response to James rather than me, and it should be apparent why we would claim rolls. I think this was meant to plant the seed that maybe claiming rolls is not a good idea, because Nero doesn't want to claim his. If you think about it for even a couple of minutes you should be able to see why claiming rolls is good, or at least why I thought it was good if you disagree, and thenhave a substantive argument

against

roll-claiming, rather than this passive-aggressive question that shows a lack of depth of thought behind it.

Hunters vote for cakez is bad. I also don't like redtea saying they won't vote for ssbm

I feel like Nero goes all out early to try to discredit me before it becomes inevitable that everyone will have to claim. I don't think his early SR, or his current SR on me are real and are instead agenda-driven. If it was a town agenda to stop the claims, town would have challenged the claims rather than trying to paint me in a negative light to make people doubt me and choose not to claim.

Tldr on roll-claiming

• if we all claim rolls, we know the possible roles in the setup. This can help us later on in massclaim. It will create situations where if scum want to lie about a role then, or lie about a roll now, they can be caught later on by poe

This is my response anyways though, in case Nero is town I wanted to answer his question seriously, and also wanted to make sure there was no question about whether roll-claiming was beneficial.

are we even going to scum hunt or just mec talk all day.

I mean we could kill u and call it a day

This is another one of Nero's interactions with Cyrus that feels off to me. There's a bit more fire in the tone but I'm still not convinced Nero really intends to lim Cyrus here. He's working on other wagons.

I don't think ssbm is all that townie Wich is why I didn't really like you saying that you wouldn't vote them.

I didn't and I don't think cakez did either, take ssbms vote on mega to be an rvs vote Wich is why is a bit scummy.

I didn't ever say it was an RVS vote so I'm not sure what the problem is. I used my vote to support my early townread while I was focusing on rollclaims. I have a consistent voting pattern on D1 of voting for players that are against roll-claiming, and that persists until we have all of the claims. That's when I start using my vote traditionally.

UNVOTE:

Hunter is either town or unpartnered scum here - I don't think he asks that if he has a PT. Also, Hunter, if you look at your sent messages, it will show the results of your rolls. Use that with the chart in the setup post.

I don't really understand the unvote unless you are prioritizing team scum over other scum factions and intentional dumb tells do exist. Whats his scum game like? I think Hunter's play is scummy so....I'm voting there for now.

The vote on Hunter is consistent with the scumread on me at least. It looks like he's placed it there because he doesn't like that RMH voted cakez in a bad way. He didn't like the way I voted MegA. The difference is that Nero has a TR on Cakez, so defending Cakez does make sense here. Defending MegA did not.

As for my pool of 6: Cyrus, Nero, Thor, Cakez, Dragon, and RMH:

That is the order they claimed in. Cyrus claimed first, and is not likely to lie, so I'm striking him right away. Cakez's roll, if true, will most likely be able to differentiated from the others because of the 2 modifiers, and would then only possibly conflict with Nero's roll if Cakez's 2d20 ended up with 1 modifier.

For this my pool narrows to Nero, Thor, Dragon, and RMH. The later the claim, the more likely it was claimed specifically to be obfuscated by the previous claims. So RMH is first in line for me. Also I think his "gambit" might have just been him overreacting to possibly having scumslipped 2 games in a row (this being the second game)

I've explained why the people that are in my pool are in pool in the same post, the first post where I reveal my pool...

I uh don't really get ssbm's thing about the pool or what not. I think I got the gist of what she's trying to do. Get everyone to claim so we know at least 8 of the roles and then play the match game. Not really sure how successful that strat would be with 5 roles changed.

...But Nero doesn't get it...

I would like to point out that her pool of 6 is everyone besides dragon that's been mentioned as a possible wagon. Although I think dotw saying that he'll sheep a town reads seems very dissimilar from my previous experience with him and rmh is scummy with his terrible vote of cakez

...and he's shading my pool when it's already been explained. I didn't come out and say "I'll do these 6 players because I have TRs everywhere else" without explaining the TRs or something. It is already on display where those names came from, and it is easily verified. This is the type of mudslinging from the sidelines I have felt Nero has been doing since early on D1 when he passive-aggressively asked why we're claiming rolls.

I would like to point out that her pool of 6 is everyone besides dragon that's been mentioned as a possible wagon. Although I think dotw saying that he'll sheep a town reads seems very dissimilar from my previous experience with him and rmh is scummy with his terrible vote of cakez

Ngl I haven't really been paying attention to wagons and am only looking at the roll-claims. Pretty sure this setup can be cracked because of the shuffles, but only if we eliminate correctly. If we get to LYLO with, say, the actual Town Roleblocker, Thor, and RMH, it would be difficult for the roleblocker to know which one lied. This is an oversimplified example, but the point is, we know that exactly 5 roles were fudged, and we know

how

they were fudged as well (exactly one roll, never more than one roll from the same 3d20 was fudged). Makes it possible to poe this because of the shuffle. Now there's only a 0.45% (half a percent) chance that RMH rolled the same thing as Thor, and vice versa. Once we have enough flips, we'll start to see how many rolls were fudged and by the time we are ready to massclaim, we should have some mechanical 1v1s

But still, I answer him, just like last time, in case he is town that actually doesn't understand. Again I think with a bit of thought on his own, Nero could have gotten here

before

he asked his question in the first place.

These next few quotes are our responses to Cyrus saying he gets SRed a lot and is easy to lim.

I don't really feel like you are

Like maybe you could argue that you get suspected slot but I don't think you are ez to lim.

In my experience cyrus is easy to lim both as town and as scum

Just wanted to include this to show the difference. 538 maybe is a soft defense without appealing directly to any of the Cyrus voters. By saying "Like maybe you could argue you get suspected a lot", people suspecting Cyrus are naturally going to question themselves if they think Cyrus is suspected more often than he should be. They might think he's LHF and reconsider SRs on him by reading that. My response is honest and doesn't defend or shade Cyrus. It just tells the truth about my past experience with Cyrus. Maybe Nero has had a different experience, or maybe something more sinister is going on.

Tea is being hesitant to vote me. I wonder what alignment that comes from? Also would make sense that tea doesn't think ssbm is scum bc tea actually knows ssbm isn't mafia.

I'm not sure where this comes from all of a sudden. I don't think having this type of theory is inherently scummy because I think shit like this all the time, especially early on when my reads are newer, but I don't

see

the progression of Nero's read on redtea get to the point that he sees them as so scummy that he thinks "maybe they're the scummy one and they're just using Kyouko as a shield." What I think is, this VC had just been posted where Cyrus's wagon is picking up steam, and this is just a chainsaw on one of the Cyrus voters that looks the most natural. I don't think pushing James or T3 here would have looked as natural as redtea when ISOing Nero, so they're the natural target if the agenda is to chainsaw the Cyrus wagon. Also at this point, Nero is slowing down on me, and we're both voting the same person. I think this is probably one of the most concrete points on Nero as I doubt anyone else is going to feel as strongly that Nero has been mudslinging as I do. Here's the VC that had just happened:

votecount 1.5

Marashu (1):

Dragon of the West

MegAzumarill (1):

Dwlee99

redtea (1):

MegAzumarill

cyrus62 (3):

JamesTheNames, redtea, T3

ssbm_Kyouko (1):

SirCakez

SirCakez (2):

ssbm_Kyouko, Robert M Hunter

Robert M Hunter (3):

Nero Cain, Marashu, ssbm_Kyouko

Nero Cain (1):

cyrus62

With 13 alive it takes 7 to reach a consensus.

(expired on 2021-08-30 10:25:14) remaining until deadline.

I think 593 is directed at Cakez.

Sure I could buy that rmh is low hanging fruit but sometimes that's just scum. I mean, I feel like your vote on ssbm made sense and then t3 kinda made a big deal about it and called it scummy and then rmh comes in and just blindly sheep. That kinda play just feels a little scummy to me. Could he just be real bad? Sure I guess

This is also right after the VC. It does show consistency on the Cakez read which may be +town for Nero. I just feel like if Nero has the below opinion on gambits, he never SRs RMH in the first place. That was the brunt of RMH's posting at the time Nero made 407. Yes 619 comes after 407, but it's clear this isn't a case-by-case thing for Nero. He just thinks gambits are something low-level players do. If you think Robert's a noob, I don't think you SR him for the "choo choo" vote and you don't do it for the gambit either with this opinion that gambits are NAI but more often town because of the distribution of players (which is just another way to say NAI).

Re gambits: they are something that slot of low lvl players do and they fail like 8/10 times. Scum claim to do gambits for town cred/excuse bad play.

It's mostly null. You could argue that gambits mostly come from town bc there's more town in a game

Yes I got 9 9 18

Not sure if I buy the thor=scum. I mean I guess he could act like a bored/useless townie instead of being a bored/useless townie

This seems like a weak read on Thor though. I think if Nero is scum Thor could be with them both as Nero doesn't seem interested in counterwagoning Cyrus with Thor.

Alright, only people that are conflicting then, considering Nero and Dragon's modifiers, is Cyrus/Thor/Cakez(technically, but unlikely because 2d20 reroll for modifiers)/and RMH

Including that my pool shrinks in light of new information because it is actually based on the claims and not based on "who has been mentioned as a wagon already"

In fairness I'm hard skimming Cyrus's post but I don't think he's a horrible use of the days elimination

Maybe. Maaaaaaybe Nero has been tunneling as town and is just now surfacing because a lot of players are starting to suspect Cyrus and now he sees maybe he's been missing something outside of his tunnel.

Not a single one of my posts has a hint of LAMIST.

This is the funniest post all thread

Funny how? Funny in an ironic way because James looked LAMIST? Or something else? If the former, what seemed LAMIST to you?

unless james is just like that imma vote him
VOTE: james
i should meta, but i probably wont get around to it. if anyone has prev experience speak up. Ill hammer a mega wagon if that happens, just for funsies. Seems like the kind of person who could slip under my radar, leading me to miselim.
Thats where im at so far. Wont vote kyouko, wont vote t3. Kyouko gave me town vibes until i remembered factions and 3p exist. id bet shes not mafia aligned at least.

Why would you hammer a MegAzumarill wagon for funsies?

Including this post because it is the one that Nero is replying to next. I'm responding to 2 posts way back on page 6 and 7 here, so I think it's clear I'm rereading.

Why wouldn't we hammer mega?

Maybe Nero misses the context that I'm rereading, which could explain why he asks this so passive-aggressively.

Why wouldn't we hammer mega?

At the end of page 7 you and RMH hadn't posted anything yet, Thor and MegA had fewer than 5 posts each, I think DotW also had very little posts at that point. Do you think it would have been right to hammer MegA at that time?

Why wouldn't we hammer mega?

At the end of page 7 you and RMH hadn't posted anything yet, Thor and MegA had fewer than 5 posts each, I think DotW also had very little posts at that point. Do you think it would have been right to hammer MegA at that time?

I feel like this is a misrepresentation. We shouldn't be ending the day by p7 anyways and I don't even think that's what redtea was saying.when I wrote this I had actually forgotten that mega was on an Uber long v/la and I was saying that I wouldn't mind killing a useless lurksack.

I did not misrepresent anything Nero said. What I did do, was clarify what I meant in the first place, and explained why I thought what I did. Then, I asked Nero if he thought it would have been right, because I didn't want to assume from his passive-aggressive question (that was clearly built out of him misunderstanding what I meant) that he

would

have wanted to hammer MegA at that time. If I had done that,

that

would have been a misrep. I think I treated Nero fairly here and did not make an assumption that I easily could have, becuase I could see clearly that he had misunderstood me. When I explained what I meant though, his reaction wasn't "oh. I misunderstood and posted something silly because of it." It was "Kyouko is misrepping me!" This was a turning point for me in my read on Nero because to this point I thought we were probably just clashing playstyles. Obviously he doesn't like mech-talk, and I love it, and I had thought that was where the tension was coming from. However this was not mech-related at all, and I think I was reasonable with him. I don't think he was showing good faith here and it became clear to me at this point that he never had been. From here on in I don't think I was as charitable with Nero as I had been before.

I'm pretty sure the only reason we know there is probably a cult is because I asked for it to be outed.

ummm no someone rolled cult bus driver.

And I asked for people to claim if they rolled cult.

Could be your role was rolled by the actual cult leader as well so consider that before claiming.

I mean, I don't see how that changes anything here cause it means scum knows my role and town doesn't.

If scum knows it, it may motivate them to kill you instead of aiming for cult. If cult knows it, it may motivate them to recruit you. If your role is really not on the list, one of those factions already has a good idea of what your role could be. If you claim, they will both know exactly what it is, and by extension will know more about Marashu's role.

So it does matter, but there's no way anyone but you can determine if it should be claimed now or not

Why wouldn't we hammer mega?

At the end of page 7 you and RMH hadn't posted anything yet, Thor and MegA had fewer than 5 posts each, I think DotW also had very little posts at that point. Do you think it would have been right to hammer MegA at that time?

I feel like this is a misrepresentation. We shouldn't be ending the day by p7 anyways and I don't even think that's what redtea was saying.when I wrote this I had actually forgotten that mega was on an Uber long v/la and I was saying that I wouldn't mind killing a useless lurksack.

If this is anything, it's a misunderstanding. I was rereading the game because I've been focusing on mechanics and that comment by redtea on the end of page 6 stood out to me. I feel like you were taking my question to mean that right now when I posted the question that I was against eliminating Meg. That's not what I was implying and I wanted to clear that up. The more I've thought about it though, I doubt Meg is Cult, and I want to find Cult first, so now (but not at the time I posted 770), I am opposed to eliminating Meg.

Actually, it even looks like I've already explained I think this stemmed from a misunderstanding in the next post. But after that, I think the charity probably stops.

the cult is possibly a lie to distract from scum

I mean Jesus fuck, you were cult hunting all day and someone rolled cult. Am I really the only one that thinks this is B.S?

This is where I started getting annoyed by Nero. It should be obvious why scum would lie about rolling Cult. I am starting to get frustrated because it really seems like he's not thinking even for a moment before he posts. If you think for a moment it becomes apparent why scum would lie about rolling cult.

tbf cyrus isn't the first one that has brought up that it seems fake as shit that SSBM spent the entire day cult hunting and BELIEVING megas roll claim to doubting if it was true

Oh no, I felt like I was getting snowed and took a step back!

I said this in my response to Nero already I think, but I grabbed these quotes yesterday morning, didn't have time to comment on them all from my PC at that time. But even now we don't know if the Cult Leader came from Gamma's or from T3's roll. I am pretty positive it came from T3's roll, and that Gamma's roll turned to 3p, but technically it could have come from either roll.

you weren't getting snowed, you are just full of shit

And this is just more mudslinging.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

No one is concerned that someone lied about rolling my role? Is there a strategic reason for that, that I am not seeing?

No way to know

who

lied about it yet. I think Dwlee, Marashu, and Cakez also claimed to be off-list. Cakez was obviously on the list but still that leaves 3 players claimed off the list. We had 3 people who claimed to roll non-town alignments as well. Maybe everyone that ended up not-town lied about what they rolled. Until a 4th person claims something off-list in massclaim, there is no mechanical POE that can happen.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

This is going to take awhile so I'll probably just post a few examples. I found these interesting because you're treating Meg's cult roll as factual here; even though you think they might be scum. That should have pinged you right here that the cult roll might have been a lie if you thought scum!meg was a possibility

I feel like you were taking my question to mean that right now when I posted the question that I was against eliminating Meg. That's not what I was implying and I wanted to clear that up. The more I've thought about it though, I doubt Meg is Cult, and I want to find Cult first, so now (but not at the time I posted 770), I am opposed to eliminating Meg.

Shit, just realized cult can bus drive james and the rolecop results will be wrong...

It was always a possibility MegA had lied about rolling Cult if she was scum, but the problem was, I knew that scum that rolled cult would probably just claim to have rolled cult. So thinking MegA was scum doesn't necessarily mean that Cult is a lie. What happened was, before everyone had claimed, I wasn't as focused on what people were posting and was solely focused on getting everyone to claim. Once everyone had claimed I started rereading from the beginning and that's around the time I posted 767. My reads got to the point where I had about 3-4 scumreads (James, Dragon, T3, maybe Gamma) that I was pretty sure on, and my strongest cult reads (Dwlee and Cyrus) I thought were probably just town if there is no cult, or if we find the cult leader. So at this point I started thinking the game makes a lot more sense if there is no Cult and wanted to eliminate Gamma to confirm the Cult's existence. While it would have been possible a cult existed on a scum!Gamma flip, I would have been leaning towards believing there is no cult in that case, because the game didn't make sense to me previously.
So I always knew it was a possibility, but it could have been a true roll-claim coming from scum or town so it seemed best to assume it's true from the start. Assuming it was true led me to a set of reads that didn't make a whole lot of sense to me, because my Cult reads would otherwise be town in a no-cult world. That is when I started to seriously consider it could be a lie.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Looking back the vote hopping didn't make sense here. say gamma scum and vote -> vote James -> explain why gamma scum and should be voted

Spoiler:

I kinda just want to know if the cult is real. We're too fragmented. This is the most pro-town elim today I think

VOTE: Gamma

I could also do James because I can see Gamma/James as partners, and if they are, the cult is possibly a lie to distract from scum

No, I also think Cyrus or Nero could be cult as I've said earlier. Dwlee is still my top cultread but there is no interest in that and I figured the next best thing would be to eliminate Gamma and find out if the cult roll is definitely true if he flips town.

It could still be a true roll coming from scum, but there is a possibility it's a lie if Gamma is scum.

I also thought Thor could be cult but I was willfully ignoring it because he was clearly softing PGO. I was going to push him D2 or D3 if we still hadn't found the cult leader.

Cyrus feels like a safe enough elimination and if he did get cult his PGO play maybe makes a little sense. I mean it does make sense, but not for Cyrus I feel. If he flips town we know pgo is real and we only lose a VT as well so it's not all downside.

I also feel like Cyrus is townie and is maybe just getting pushed as an easy mislim though.

I dont follow the case on cakez. Lack of engagement, and sheeped me on RMH? Is that it, or did I miss something else? I'm not really TRing him but I dont remember him being on my radar as possible cult. I'll check my notes in the morning. I'll be around before deadline.

Oh eww the Cyrus wagon is James and Dragon no way, if scum think he's cult they can shoot him

VOTE: james for now. Not sure about this cakez wagon. T3 has been vocal about cakez being scum since daystart and that's pretty much all he's posting about. I'd vote T3 out today as possible cult here. No reason he wouldnt be cult here, and he's laying a but low. Says he's not motivated though so I question if that's why he's so bare today, or if he's bare because he's unmotivated to play 3P. Ngl I feel like T3 would enjoy cult leader so maybe hes just actually not cult here. The tunnel has been unusual though

I kinda just want to know if the cult is real. We're too fragmented. This is the most pro-town elim today I think

VOTE: Gamma

I could also do James because I can see Gamma/James as partners, and if they are, the cult is possibly a lie to distract from scum

the cult is possibly a lie to distract from scum

I mean Jesus fuck, you were cult hunting all day and someone rolled cult. Am I really the only one that thinks this is B.S?

Not gonna lie, it made me super nervous when I read it.

Like, I need to know your thought process kyouko.

My thought process is, if it werent for the existence of cult, I'd be townreading Dwlee and Cyrus, and wouldn't be interested in eliminating either of them today. I'm also thinking James is caught scum, and I didn't want to vote him still, even as sure as I am that he's scum, I didn't want to vote him because of the existence of cult.

I had considered early on that claiming they rolled cult is something scum could do to throw town off the scent, but didn't put much stock into the likelihood of that, until I realized that I'm most interested in voting out Dwlee, who would be completely off the table (for me at least) if this was confirmed singleball. So if scum did fake the cult roll to distract town, it is working on me. It's working on at least half of us I would estimate. I just won a game with Dwlee as town in ELO recently and I would really like to be able to work with him here if possible, so I

want

MegA/Gamma to be scum that lied about cult. I

want

to believe there isn't a cult, and if I can flip Gamma and see he's red, I can convince myself to work with Dwlee.

Well the Gamma vote is about 15 hours to deadline and the James vote is 10 or so hours to deadline and was made right before I went to sleep for the night, so there's nothing scummy about that.

I was trying to get a wagon that was not Cyrus or Cakez to go through at that point, and James was my strongest SR. I wanted to eliminate Gamma more than James though because eliminating Gamma and seeing him flip green would confirm the existence of cult, and flipping red is a dead scum, so Gamma's elim was a win-win. James had claimed he was not enough roles that I knew he was either Tracker or Neighborizer and if he was Neighborizer he could confirm himself the next day if town. So I much preferred Gamma and tried to do that. I didn't get enough interest though and moved to James to try something else I thought was likely to flip scum, even though James isn't as useful as a dead townie as Gamma would have been, regarding confirming the truth of their rollclaim.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

736 - It's null but scum do it? It's NAI for me.

I mean most things are null.

You said yourself that you've done it as town and prob would do it as scum.

I mean, scum absolutely do do it. So if it comes from both alignments isn't that the definition of null?

In both of these games, I, as town, am very focused on mechanics. I believe I would do the same thing as scum, but I would do it in a way that benefits scum.

Does vote hoping and making bizarre about faces and technically rolefishing help? You spent practically the entire day tunneled on not flipped scum and you've spent all of today pushing town so has it really helped?

one of the off-listers would have died last Night in an attempt to find the doubled vig which was clearly rolled by scum.

Could you walk me through this...how do you know scum rolled a double vig?

1161 is the post I was talking about earlier where Nero doesnt question whether the cult is real, which would also look like a TMI on Gamma if Nero is scum.

You spent practically all of d1 cult hunting so are you claiming the pot or the kettle?

1279 - Cyrus (scum) brings up that it's scummy for me to question whether cult is real when I am specifically questioning it because I think Gamma could be scum lying about the cult. This isn't a reason to SR me unless you're thinking Cyrus was only doing this to Distance. If that's the case you haven't made it evident yet.

???? Does everything go over your head or is this just an act? I was the one that pushed you/called you out for this sudden change that the cult is maybe fake after believing in a cult all day. Cyrus was sheeping me and I was commenting on that.

And in 1652, yes, I finally voted you. I've felt like your points on me have been weak for a while and with 1624 it just got egregious. You'd been (imo) misrepping me for most of the game and tunneling me, and I was willing to think you weren't acting in bad faith up until then. 1624 set me off because you're describing my solving process as "revisioning" and I feel like you arent solving. You feel to me like a fly buzzing around. That's what flies do though, so it's annoying, but it's just what you do. But then you landed on my food.

Your reasoning for voting me is bad but thats ok b/c you aren't town.

I also told you what the difference is in my mechtalk when I'm scum and town, and gave you examples of towngames where I'm also consumed by mechtalk for you to compare this to.

Cyrus was talking about how he wishes he had gotten vigilante and how his role was like a superpower. I think at one point he even said he got confused between his role and his roll - let me go look for quotes. According to RMH's claim, he did not kill James, meaning James was killed by scum or 3p. James had said he was on the list and claimed "not x" to a lot of roles and POEd himself down to Doubled Neighborizer or Even-Night Tracker. If scum had rolled Doubled Vigilante, they might have thought that James was actually a doubled vigilante who thought his role was fudged from Doubled Neighborizer into Doubled Vigilante, which could explain why he was targeted.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

i refuse to out my roll. why becuse its a super power

wait i mis read i was thinking of what i wanted to roll lol a vig. this is what it means (uses ability on everyone who also visited their target) so yes mara got it right.

I am a bit upset I didn't roll vig rampaging no mod . But I most likely wouldn't get it any.

Cyrus as vig sounds scary right?

So I've seen Cyrus talk about wanting to buy the dayvig ability before as town in Owner's Market Blitz, so it's possible Vig is just on his mind, but that was when he was town. Maybe he was trying to emulate his town game by talking about how he wishes he was a vig because vig is a fun role, but I do think there's a possibility his actual roll did involve vigilante, and that's why it's on his mind at this point. As scum that knows of a vigilante, you would want to hunt that down for obvious reasons - especially if you're Cyrus who is a pretty primo target for a vig shot regardless of his alignment.

lets say we hit scum day 1 . 11 - 2 9v 4 you hit scum . scum kill one 10 cult gets another 4 cult 1 scum 8 vs 5 . we hit cult . scum kill one cult gains 5 vs 6 even if you hit scum we still lose to cult.

I wish I could make sense of this because it's possible Cyrus TMIed the number of players in his faction here

Did you roll ugly Nero

This I think is really Cyrus looking for this info because scum wants to use Cyrus's parity cop to find cult, and they need to know if ugly is real. So Cyrus was not teamed with Nero I don't think.

Springboarding off of that:
1. Nero - not Mafia with Cyrus
2. Gamma - could be town or scum, but either way, the roll is real. Scum would be operating under the assumption that cult is real because either a) Gamma is scum that really rolled Cult or b) Gamma is not teamed with Cyrus and none of the scumteam rolled WW or Alien, and they are assuming the game comprises of Town, Scum, and Cult.
3. I still think it would be an odd coincidence if the roll-twice modifier on Gamma's role resulted in exactly "Multitasking" with no conflicting roles. Sure the mod could have fudged the Bus Driver into Voyeur purposefully to obfuscate whether the Cult role came from T3's or Gamma's role, but I think the simplest explanation is it came from T3.
4. Meaning there is a third party out there. However, because scum were hunting for the doubled vigilante, I do not think RMH is a 3P SK posing as a vig, although I was thrown a little by 854 the other day and thought maybe he is a third party bus driver who was confused and thought he was the "cult" everyone was trying to find.
5. 3P is either a SK that targeted the same target as scum or RMH, or 3P is a Survivor
6. If 3P is a Survivor I might buy that that is Thor, but if Cyrus really rolled vig and not PGO, and Thor claimed PGO as 3p, scum would have shot him thinking he was cult imo.
7. This just means that Thor is Cyrus's partner and there is a 3P somewhere - probably not Gamma as the 3P role probably was generated by his roll, meaning if he received his own roll as 3P he would connect the dots that someone else rolled Cult before him
8. a 3P, and possibly a third scum, exists amongst {Dragon, Dwlee, Marashu, Nero, redtea, Kyouko} - take your own name out if you're town

VOTE: Thor

[ssbm_Kyouko]

^ Even if you assume in #3 I'm wrong about T3 and the Cult Leader was generated by Gamma's role, #6 still stands. If Cyrus really rolled vig and not PGO, and Thor claimed PGO (as anything that wasn't Cyrus's partner), scum would have shot him thinking he was cult.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

just wanted to point out (again) that it's now Monday and I've been tunneled on the whole day phase without any movement away from me.

Ditto (I think)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'll claim first in massclaim tomorrow so I'll be locked in before any results on me

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Why is tomorrow mass claim?

Needs to happen soon, we may have more than one cc to resolve. I'd want to do it today but there are parity cops and Even-Night tracker that don't have results yet. Tomorrow everyone should have a result unless they were blocked. T3 presumably blocked Cakez so I doubt there has been significant interference that would warrant waiting for D4.

Other roleblocker is X-shot if unfudged and possibly will holster if they are 2-shot, or could be out of shots if they're 1-shot.

In fact, it might be best, if there is a 2+ shot roleblocker out there, that they either holster or target the same player they did N1, so that at most only 1 parity cop doesnt have a result due to blocks

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If Thor's really off the table, then I propose this:

tonight I will target Thor

. I encourage at least one other person to do so as well. If I'm the only death and at least one other person did target him, then Thor was lying.

This doesnt work as scum!Thor can just shoot you toNight, bit I dont think he's off the table - he has 3 or 4 votes right now I think?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'll claim first in massclaim tomorrow so I'll be locked in before any results on me

I thought tomorrow was only massclaim if we mislimmed/couldn't find cult? We've got 1 scum and the CL...I don't see a reason to massclaim D3

I think most likely if we mass tomorrow that we will still have enough mislims left to run through anyone that is unconfirmed and win. We'll see after flips I suppose.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I actually think I prefer a Thor elim over a Gamma claim at this point. VOTE: Thor

Can we at least get a gamma claim first? We aren't getting much new info from a Thor lim right now if he flips green

I dont think getting 1 claim now is helpful because scum can just NK whoever claimed if their role is on the list. When we do claim it should be everyone claiming in the same Day.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Right but what are the odds it has a NK? or that it wasn't fudged? I'm unsure if T3's roll was actually CMV or fudged into Cult

Pretty sure based on the fishing T3 was doing for multitasking and his tunnel on Cakez that he was looking for a cult multitasking voyeur, which would indicate it was rolled that way and it wasnt fudged. Think we've been over this and we disagree on T3 seeing Cakez's first post as a crumb, but even if you disagree on that I think one thing that is apparent from T3's play is he somehow knew something was up with Cakez

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Gamma, a safe roleblock if you're town is on Robert as he's claimed he was 1-shot doubled vig. We know he's not parity cop, and if you're town there's likely a 3p. If you block him he wont be able to kill if he's faked vigilante, and if he's really a vigilante, you wont be stopping any parity cops.

If it was any other player as the second roleblocker I think it would make more sense to holster, but as we know (most likely) cakes was blocked twice last Night, our parity cops are both primed to get results toNight. Best not to stop that from happening. With Gamma claiming RB, from his town POV, 3P is all but guaranteed. Blocking RMH can rule him out if we get 2 kills

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also if Gamma commits to blocking RMH publicly, we dont have to waste rolecops on RMH. Gamma, are you willing to do that? Just say No if you're not willing or are 1-shot. Dont out how many shots you got.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Nero was hammer - me, dwlee, marashu, redtea, and nero

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I mean I'm gonna go right here I think. Does anyone have meaningful results?
VOTE: Kyo

I'm the even night tracker. I tracked Marashu because he mentioned he might target Thor. I got no result, so I was blocked. If Marashu had not flipped I was going to lie about my result and claim that I tracked Gamma to RMH. This would put scum!Gamma in an awkward position since he would know he blocked me, bit it's possible that Marashu blocked me so I'm not going to do that.

I had considered saying today (without claiming) that I was going to target Thor toNight (N3) so that if I flipped overNight, people would see I was even night and realize that I could not have visited Thor and deduce I was killed because scum wanted us to think Thor was PGO. I thought Marashu had the same idea, but as an odd-night role. I was torn between tracking Marashu, Dwlee, and RMH as possible SKs. I figured if Gamma is town, that's the only way SK is real, and if he's town, he can be trusted to stick to his word and block RMH, so tracking RMH would do no good.

I settled on tracking Marashu because he implied (in my eyes) he was an odd-night role.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So Gamma's roleblocker would have come from RMH, right? Just went back to check the list and Thor claimed he rolled odd night roleblocker which T3 flipped

Oh ur right

also marashu is a real one

also also missed like 6 posts and didnt know thor wagon was already on its way yes lets roooll

Were you actually in the hood with Marashu? I noticed this overNight while considering who to track and wondered if this was softing that you knew marashu is a real roleblocker or that you knew gamma.was not a roleblocker - probably the former as of you knew Gamma lied you'd say something

[ssbm_Kyouko]

It's still possible there is a serial killer btw and if there is one, and there were 3 scum, today is MYLO if SK and scum both hit town with kills. If there were 2 scum, tomorrow is MYLO.
I think we massclaim now, and I think it goes like this:
I think we should have rolecops claim if they are rolecops, and claim what role they found each night, but DO NOT claim who had the role that they found.

Then everyone else claims roles, but not results.

Then rolecops claim who had the roles that they found

If everything lines up at this point, other people can start claiming results

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So I'll start: I

'm not a rolecop (obviously). Neither is Dwlee (at least if he is, it was not created by a roll on the list), Gamma, or RMH.

Dragon, Nero, Redtea: are any of you rolecops? If so, what roles did you find? DO NOT say WHO had the role you found - just say the roles you found

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Rolecops should not claim what roles they saw people with because that tells people they can't fake claim before they try to.

This doesnt work because the rolecops will not divulge who they found the role on until after everyone claims roles

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think people should just go in order of scumminess. Most scummy claims first. The least scummy claims last. Each person full claims everything they have.

This lets deepwolves fabricate a claim around everyone else's results easier

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Maybe a good compromise is claim roles from scummiest to towniest, then claim results in that order?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If we want to do fullclaims all at once I think Dragon claims last as his roll is already flipped and he didnt vote out thor

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Updated and fixed list, in chronological order:

These are the current roll claims, who made them, and the post they were made in:
Ssbm_Kyouko - [13, 8, 1] Mafia Parity Cop with no modification - 25
Dwlee99 - [12, 8, 14] Town Parity Cop with a

Rampaging

modication - 34
Marashu - [1-12, 8, 7] Town Parity Cop with an Even-Night modification - 37
Gamma - [19, 17, 20] Cult Bus Driver with a Reroll Twice modification - 57
JamesTheNames - [6, 10, 7] Town Tracker with an Even-Night modification - 64
Cyrus62 - [7, 7, 1] Town Paranoid Gun Owner with no modification - 72
T3 - [1-12, 14, 5] Town Voyeur with a Multitasking modification - 139
Thor Ragnarok - [1-12, 19, ?] Town Roleblocker with an unknown modification - 167
Redtea - [14, 6, 20] Mafia Fruit Vendor with a Reroll Twice modification - 171
Nero Cain - [1-12, 9, ?] Town Rolecop with an ugly Modification - 226
SirCakez - [1-12, 9, 20] Town Rolecop with a Reroll Twice modication - 268
Dragon of the West - [1-12, 5, ?] Town Neighborizer with a Doubled modification - 322
Robert M Hunter - [2, 19, 3] Town Roleblocker with 1d4 shots - 344(1d4 later claimed)

Made some corrections above.
Of the living players:
Kyouko: Fudged roll flipped
Gamma: possibly fudged role flipped. More likely T3s roll generated cult leader and Gammas generated 3P if true
Nero: not flipped/claimed
Dwlee: not flipped/claimed
Redtea: not flipped and most likely not going to get claimed
Dragon: exact roll flipped
RMH: role claimed, roll claimed but not flipped

Because redtea's roll, if true, is unlikely to get claimed, I think it makes sense for them to claim last. It's unlikely they got their own roll, meaning they got someone else's roll. If they got someone else's roll, it means scum might accidentally fakeclaim the role redtea actually got if we let redtea claim late.

I think the last 2 to claim should be redtea, then Dragon

[ssbm_Kyouko]

As for Nero and Dwlee, I dont really care who claims first. Dwlee claimed to be off the list already so if Nero is scum and going to fakeclaim something on the list, it won't conflict with dwlee anyways. Either one can claim.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

We halt massclaim, redtea outs their target, their target maybe CCs with a role on the list, we see if anyone can cc the target cc. If not it's between redtea and their target

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Or their target just concedes to the guilty idk

[ssbm_Kyouko]

But since redtea found a rampaging fruit vendor, nobody else claims targets (because rampaging) until redtea claims who that is and that person fullclaims

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Well if I flipped town this morning what would Nero do toDay?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Dont answer that until after Nero claims

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Rampaging claim involves the players that targeted his target also receiving fruit

[ssbm_Kyouko]

We can just kill Nero then. Since he isn't claiming town odd-night rampaging fruit vendor, if he dies and flips town it means either redtea lied or the third party bus drived Nero with scum. 3P would know who is who in this situation. If 3P bus drived Nero, they know who the other scum is (the player they swapped Nero with). If they didnt bus drive Nero, they know redtea was lying. If 3P is serial killer they can kill scum prolly. Need to do numbers on that, not sure if it makes sense for SK to kill scum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

7 alive - I think we do finish claiming now because Marashu is flipped already actually. So we know his roll was real. If nobody else has a role that comes from Marashu's roll the most reasonable assumption is there was either a bus drive or redtea lied

[ssbm_Kyouko]

What redtea is claiming my role isn't true so either he's just scum and lying or he was bussed. I'm an even night parity cop that targeted Marashu n2.

I only skimmed but 1) no I was in a hood with James and T3, not Marashu and 2) I'm even-night rolecop, call it convenient but I found MY OWN ROLL:
Odd-night rampaging fruit vendor
Odd-night and rampaging fruit being the result of the "reroll twice" result I got.
So as long as mod didn't fudge that alignement, which I don't think is likely, we've scored

So redtea claims Even-Night rolecop

Nero claims Even-Night Parity Cop

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Sorry for doing it in several posts but I'm on mobile and it's easier this way

[ssbm_Kyouko]

What redtea is claiming my role isn't true so either he's just scum and lying or he was bussed. I'm an even night parity cop that targeted Marashu n2.

I only skimmed but 1) no I was in a hood with James and T3, not Marashu and 2) I'm even-night rolecop, call it convenient but I found MY OWN ROLL:
Odd-night rampaging fruit vendor
Odd-night and rampaging fruit being the result of the "reroll twice" result I got.
So as long as mod didn't fudge that alignement, which I don't think is likely, we've scored

So redtea claims Even-Night rolecop

Nero claims Even-Night Parity Cop

Updated and fixed list, in chronological order:

These are the current roll claims, who made them, and the post they were made in:
Ssbm_Kyouko - [13, 8, 1] Mafia Parity Cop with no modification - 25
Dwlee99 - [12, 8, 14] Town Parity Cop with a

Rampaging

modication - 34
Marashu - [1-12, 8, 7] Town Parity Cop with an Even-Night modification - 37
Gamma - [19, 17, 20] Cult Bus Driver with a Reroll Twice modification - 57
JamesTheNames - [6, 10, 7] Town Tracker with an Even-Night modification - 64
Cyrus62 - [7, 7, 1] Town Paranoid Gun Owner with no modification - 72
T3 - [1-12, 14, 5] Town Voyeur with a Multitasking modification - 139
Thor Ragnarok - [1-12, 19, ?] Town Roleblocker with an unknown modification - 167
Redtea - [14, 6, 20] Mafia Fruit Vendor with a Reroll Twice modification - 171
Nero Cain - [1-12, 9, ?] Town Rolecop with an ugly Modification - 226
SirCakez - [1-12, 9, 20] Town Rolecop with a Reroll Twice modication - 268
Dragon of the West - [1-12, 5, ?] Town Neighborizer with a Doubled modification - 322
Robert M Hunter - [2, 19, 3] Town Roleblocker with 1d4 shots - 344(1d4 later claimed)

Made some corrections above.
Of the living players:
Kyouko: Fudged roll flipped
Gamma: possibly fudged role flipped. More likely T3s roll generated cult leader and Gammas generated 3P if true
Nero: not flipped/claimed
Dwlee: not flipped/claimed
Redtea: not flipped and most likely not going to get claimed
Dragon: exact roll flipped
RMH: role claimed, roll claimed but not flipped

Because redtea's roll, if true, is unlikely to get claimed, I think it makes sense for them to claim last. It's unlikely they got their own roll, meaning they got someone else's roll. If they got someone else's roll, it means scum might accidentally fakeclaim the role redtea actually got if we let redtea claim late.

I think the last 2 to claim should be redtea, then Dragon

So technically, with no other claims, these 2 roles can both exist and be town if Dwlee's role was

fudged

into Town

Even-Night

Parity Cop, and Marashu's was

fudged

into Town Even-Night

Rolecop

This assumes dwlee told the truth.

If they are both town it also implies that Nero was bus drived by 3P who is actually not RMH because Gamma

should have

blocked RMH. That means RMH really is doubled vig, somebody rolled that or similar (possibly Cakez though, so this doesnt help us find scum now) and lied.

If Nero was bus driven then he is not 3P, and he was not swapped with me, Gamma, or RMH. I'm assuming there are no CCs to Gamma, myself, Nero, or Redtea forthcoming, meaning none of us are 3p either. That leaves dwlee and dragon as possible 3p bus drivers, and the other as the actual Odd-Night Rampaging Fruit Vendor.

So if either Dwlee or Dragon is Odd-Nigt Rampaging Fruit Vendor, we know the other is 3P.

I guess Redtea could be 3P Survivor gambiting to kill a strong scumread instead of just NKing Nero as a 3P SK. This also assumes that 3P exists because Gamma is town, and that 3P picked up the bus driver rolecard rather than the other random one

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So if Either Dwlee or Dragon actually have that role that Redtea is claiming, we can lim the other one as they're almost certainly the bus driver

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Just need to finish massclaim

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I have no pref on dragon or dwlee first

[ssbm_Kyouko]

One of Kyo or Gamma is scum

Walk me through how I'm scum with my claim

[ssbm_Kyouko]

guy has a result that either you or the person that targeted you is scum. Has nothing to do with your claim.

Oh well I'm town so I know I was roleblocked by scum or 3p which means either Gamma is scum or another scum rolled roleblocker, because Marashu didnt have a way to commute. He couldn't have been asceticized either because he got NKed

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Well Gamma's role is 4-shot and RMH claimed no modifiers.

Oh hm maybe Kyo is a better vote cause the roleblock could have been Marashu?

I think the bus driver messiness means it makes sense to go Gamma first

Pedit: if we flip Gamma and he's town then Kyo is scum unless bus driver got her N2

It's possible bus driver could have swapped RMH with someone else since they would expect Gamma to block RMH. In essence it would be as though the 3p is a roleblocker for the night if they know where Gamma I'd aiming and I didnt think that through tbh

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Mara's roleblock would go through before he got killed

What I'm saying is I was definitely blocked, Marashu was not asceticized.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm town Rampaging Parity cop. I targeted Kyo both nights. N1 she got no visitors. N2 she had one visitor visible to me, and that visitor had a different alignment than Kyo. Kyo is claiming she was roleblocked. Obviously if that's a lie, she's scum. If that visitor was Mara, then Kyo is scum because Mara flipped town. If that visitor was Gamma, then gamma is scum because they're the only other roleblocker and they're lying about targeting RMH.

The possibility of a bus driver muddies things, but I think it's most likely that Gamma is scum and lied about being a bus driver. Even if there's a bus driver, we effectively have 2 1v1s. Redtea vs Nero and Gamma vs Kyo and the bus driver couldn't have swapped people in a way that makes both of these 1v1s TvT. I think flipping Gamma is the correct first move because that will help us confirm the existence of a bus driver. If they flip town, then I think it's most likely Kyo is scum.
But I also think Gamma & Nero make the most sense as remaining scum partners

You know with certainty I was only visited once right? You confirmed that if a non-ninja also.visited me you would have received 2 results?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Because if so, it means no bus driver targeted me, which means gamma is scum fmpov

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Unless one of their modifiers is Ninja, in which case there could have been shenanigans that will take some thinking to figure out.

Tbh, it sounds like there is no bus driver to me and scum are just Gamma and one of redtea/Nero. If Gamma is town and there is a bus driver then either redtea is scum or the driver swapped Nero. If the driver swapped Nero with me and nobody else targeted Nero it would mean the rampaging PC just sees redtea target Nero and we know their alignments don't match. I dont think theres a driver. I do have a concern though, about Cyrus CCing Cakez earlier. He felt that Cakez could not be a parity cop, with certainty

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Did cyrus know there were only 2 parity cops in game and did he know both were on his scumteam? Is food for thought

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I have a concert, prolly wont post again til morning

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think that the nero/redtea 1v1 is better today though. Because dragon can be scum and Gamma can be town and in that case town loses if they lim me and Gamma in any order

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Nero did you roll werewolf and lie about it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Yeah I was actually pissed I got limmed while at a concert unable to post but then I saw RMH was scum in the dead thread

[ssbm_Kyouko]

T3 did you roll cult multitasking voyeur?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hmm