Mini #704: Hunchback of Notre Dame, Game Over

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i'm here sorry pj didn't have any access the past two days.

reading now.

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vote: clockworkruse

back to reading

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townlist:
mizzy
carncarn
mach-maf
axelrod

scumlist:
clockworkruse
battousai
destructor

ambiguous:
thadmiral
caboose
ortolan
urielzyx


Post 54, cwr thinks there is "adequate pressure on ramus" aka he doesn't want to be seen to be mindlessly bandwagoning, and instead votes ortolan for "defending ramus." kind of ridiculous that rather than join a wagon that might be fruitful you throw your vote away on somebody who's supporting the person being wagoned. carncarn notes how lame this is in the very next post.

post 61 is a winner.

post 70 from ortolan smells an awful lot like distancing. fos = friend of scum. this also makes cwr's silly ortolan vote make a lot more sense.

post 76 has cwr ratcheting up the rhetoric against ramus but STILL keeping his vote on ortolan, which is looking more and more suspect given how hard he is pushing against ramus. his whole "defending other people is scummy" schtick is also just wrong.

post 85 caboose is being oddly noninteractive. noted.

up to page five, and theadmiral has done nothing but debate theory points as far as i can tell. also noted.

According to the last votecount, he only has 1 vote. It's strange you seem to be at least partially appealing to argument from the majority here.

zing! great point made by ort against cwr. still think he's just distancing/bussing though. its become a real back and forth by this point, but to begin with their attacks on each other were really suspect.

post 115 and some other earlier posts have got me very comfortable with saying mach maf is town.

des jumps right in to defend cr, and in post 137 starts trying to scare votes off the cr wagon by raising the specter of, god forbid, a six page day.

thadmiral is being notably noncomittal at the bottom of page six

post 152 why isn't cwr already dead?

reevaluating the theory that ort is bussing cwr.

From what has been said, I don't think CR has done anything worth being lynched yet. But maybe being at L-2 he has kept up being active.

uh huh. batt is distancing cwr, and hoping this wagon falls apart.

don't like the caboose wagon at the expense of the cwr wagon. caboose is lurking yes, but cwr is outright scummy, and its unsettling that two of the people who have made the most lucid and straightforward points against cwr (mach maf, carncarn) suddenly abandon ship simultaneously.

post 209 hey look i was right batt was just distancing cwr and wasn't really willing to go all the way to a bus. throwing an fos at axel for asking for a claim from the guy he was bandwagoning is bupkiss too.

post 214 axelrod is so incredibly correct in every way, man i'm glad this guy joined the game. rading this post, its almost like i shouldn't have even bothered writing my own here. but oh well. he's right, cwr should be claiming right about now.

oh good, the lurkerwagon on caboose fell apart once he reappeared. can we get back to the business of lynching clockwork now?

that about does it. lists at the top of this post were updated once i finished writing the whole thing.

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like i said halfway through my post, i've reevaluated my initial position that it looked like a bus. thats why you ended up in the ambiguous column instead of the scum column.

but yeah, i think foses when you're not voting are mad scummy.

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likelihood that caboose is scum with clockwork rising dramatically

the carncarn votes are bullshit, he fosed me essentially for a theory disagreement (which, yes, is a silly reason to fos), but getting all bent out of shape and voting him for that is extremely opportunistic and looks like a last ditch effort to move the wagon off of cwr.

It seems like people are voting clockwork because of his play-choices (i.e. the non-vote on ramus) rather than him being "scummy". In fact it seems like people are voting for him because they don't understand him/his logic, or simply disagree with him.
can axelrod, roflcopter and carncarn respond to this.

at least in terms of my own vote for clockwork, your assessment is very much incorrect, and i wonder whether you actually read my post.

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Chances of scum being on my wagon... quite high.

2 votes is a wagon?
Also people who say this are usually scum.

Vote stands.

its difficult to track the meteoric rise in the probability of caboose being scum

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Chances of scum being on my wagon... quite high.

2 votes is a wagon?
Also people who say this are usually scum.

Vote stands.

its difficult to track the meteoric rise in the probability of caboose being scum

Oh, so I'm scum because my vote doesn't match up with yours and because I'm not on the popular bandwagon?
Seriously?

thats an awesome misrep caboose. really stunning in its simplicity.

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fact number one: caboose has been a generally lurky, noncomittal entity throughout much of the game
meta note: having been in/being in other games with caboose, i have a pretty firm basis to believe this is unusual for him.
++scum points

fact number two: not until significant pressure was applied to caboose did he come out of his shell and find a home for his vote
corollary: this vote for carncarn was made for a very weak reason
++scum points

fact number three: caboose tries to shore up his reasoning for his vote ex post facto with this line:

Also people who say this are usually scum.

which is a horrible overgeneralization and is akin to voting for someone for self voting or some such actions that is generally agreed to be anti town in principle. there is no proof provided that "people who do this" (in this case, say there are probably scum voting for oneself) are usually scum, so its a really easy way excuse an already weak vote with a totally unfounded sentiment.
+++scum points

finally, fact number four: caboose's attempts to shift attention to carncarn come at the expense of the clockwork wagon, which is the most likely lynch today. he is stalling for clockworkruse.
++probability of scumpairage

and now cwr shows an unusual degree of interest in the building momentum against caboose. again
++probablity of scumpairage

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No i did read your post, and it relies heavily on the assumption that ortolan, and (to a lesser extent) battuoasi are scumbuddies with clockwork. i.e. you found the entire scum team. (And now caboose, which somehow gives them a fourth member...)

no, actually, it doesn't, the connections stem from scummy actions on cwr's own part, and cwr's scumminess is totally indepent of the possible connections i've been pointing out between cwr and other players...
and you left out destructor, who is much more likely to be scumbuddies with cwr than batt, and you left out the part where i reevaluate my stance on ort, so again i ask, did you actually read my post?

I remember you did this in another game I played in (in which you were wrong) and I view it as a less grounded, and more dangerous, kind of tunneling, in that it forms assumptions based off other assumptions, and that it has everything "fit-the-model" (for example instead of someone building a case on someone else because he thinks he is scummy, he builds it against him because they are obviously scum-partners and he is trying to distance).

how the hell does me being wrong in another game entirely necessarily make me wrong here?

this is a really, really weak basis for a vote ad. a continued mischaracterization of my vote for clockwork, and then an irrelevant jab at me over my play in another game entirely. nice.

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admiral: so what you've established is that you think i'm a bad player. how does knowing that i was not in fact group scum in that game, but more or less the equivalent of the town vigilante, strike you?

i'm pretty confused how a "history of bad play/logic being continued in this game" makes me scum when it didn't make me scum last time.

and ok, so you disagree with my reasons for thinking caboose and cwr could be scum together, but you conveniently left out all the reasons i listed for thinking caboose is scum irregardless of cwr.

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@roflcopter: In light of your recent statements about Caboose:

"likelihood that caboose is scum with clockwork rising dramatically"
"meteoric rise in the probability of caboose being scum"
"++scum points"

Where is Caboose on your "scumlist" currently?

second, behind clockworkruse

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roflcopter is his usual useless self.

Axelrod, is quite logical and pro-town.

that seems like an odd stance to take, considering axel and i have expressed very similar opinions and concerns thus far

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yeah, well i can safely say that nat is a hypocrite when he calls anyone useless

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not lynching clockwork today would be a big mistake, especially with the impending deadline

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failure to lynch altogether would be unforgivably dumb

failure to lynch clockworkruse would just be a big mistake

i will not be voting carncarn, though, even in the face of a no lynch alternative, because everything i've seen from him has made me think he is pro town and the wagon on him is just dripping with stupid. consider that as some added incentive for people to vote cwr instead, if its that or no lynch

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it doesn't help the scum because you're scum

accusing me of tunneling doesn't help your case, because tunneling is not in and of itself a bad thing

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willing to switch to a natirasha or caboose wagon at deadline

my unwillingness to switch to a carncarn wagon has to do with a)my belief that he's town, b)my very strong belief that out of cwr and carncarn, cwr is the more likely to be scum and c)the fact that taking my vote off of cwr would make it less likely that anything could happen before deadline to make him the lynch

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having been in/being in several other games with caboose, i can say from experience that lurking like this is extremely uncharacteristic of his play

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god this deadline/no deadline/deadline/no deadline dance is killing me

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holy shit who is this urzassedatives guy and how did he get so good at this game

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and i'm glad the replacement cleared up the caboose issue so succinctly, urzas is obvtown

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god this deadline/no deadline/deadline/no deadline dance is killing me

If this isn't scum frustrated because they just missed out on lynching a town (so they could use their nightkill), then I don't know what is.

it's not too late to set up a rofl wagon is it?

unvote, vote: roflcopter

honestly, admiral, you've done fuckall this game, so why don't you just go back to being quiet in a corner instead of concocting ridiculously weak accusations?

EBWOP:

Vote: Roflcopter

, until explains why he wants to lynch Nat or Caboose over CWR now.

ok, when did i ever say i wanted to lynch nat or caboose

over

cwr? if you read my posts, you'll see i said that i would be willing to lynch them at deadline if a cwr lynch was not possible, but cwr is still my priority.

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nat's self-preservation vote is a null tell, desire not to see yourself lynched is working towards your win condition regardless of whether that win con is mafia for town.

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my vote is in the right place

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I'd like to know if rofl followed the game and what he thought of how things went. It was pretty much on my insistence that he was killed night 1, hehe.

i followed the game in passing. i was really not expecting to die night one this game, but when i did it was just like "doh! des must be scum!" after having that unfair meta advantage (and being dead) everything i read of the game just confirmed that. didn't see ort coming though, so good game guys, you deserved it.